CN105574655A - Method and system for evaluating distributed scheduling operation risk - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention provides a method for evaluating a distributed scheduling operation risk. The method comprises the following steps: decomposing an operation order into multiple steps, obtaining operation states respectively included in various steps, obtaining multiple operation results formed by selecting one operation state from various steps, and further calculating the respective occurrence probabilities of various operation results; and determining current risk states of the operation order, calculating the consequence severity of the current risk states respectively corresponding to various operation results, obtaining risk values of the current risk states respectively corresponding to various operation results according to the consequence severity of the current risk states respectively corresponding to various operation results, the corresponding occurrence probabilities and a preset factor coefficient, and accumulating risk values of the current risk states respectively corresponding to various operation results, and taking the accumulated risk values as the output of the total risk value. By means of the invention, influence of the operation order distributed steps on the operation state of a power system can be considered; and influence of multiple factors on the practical scheduling operation risk is also considered.

Description

A kind of method and system for the evaluation and test of distributed scheduling operational risk

Technical field

The present invention relates to electric power system dispatching operative technique field, particularly relate to a kind of method and system for the evaluation and test of distributed scheduling operational risk.

Background technology

Scheduling operation is by performing several Dispatching to realize control to operation states of electric power system and maintenance.Usually, Dispatching carries out logic verify and safety check by yardman or operation order generation system before execution, to avoid causing electric power system tide out-of-limit etc., problem occurs, but along with the extension of electric power development scale, increasing operation may cause power system device to operate in the critical point of security constraint, therefore in the urgent need to carrying out risk evaluation and test to scheduling operation.

At present, the risk evaluation and test of scheduling operation is integrally considered by operation order, evaluate and test out this operation order perform after on the impact of operation states of electric power system and risk level, but above-mentioned risk evaluation and test Shortcomings part, be mainly reflected in following two aspects: on the one hand, operation order is made up of several steps, and each step may impact the running status of electric system, the front and back step of operation order has relevance simultaneously, the result of previous step will affect the enforcement of its subsequent step, thus cause electric system to present different running statuses, on the other hand, in actual schedule operating process, there is the multiple factor can affect the risk of scheduling operation, as the social influence factor, the scheduling overhaul management factor, the weather effect factor etc.

Therefore, need the method for a kind of scheduling operation risk evaluation and test badly, the impact that the distributed step of operation order causes operation states of electric power system can be considered, also will consider the impact of multiple factor pair scheduling operation practical risk.

Summary of the invention

Embodiment of the present invention technical matters to be solved is, a kind of method and system for the evaluation and test of distributed scheduling operational risk is provided, the impact that the distributed step of operation order causes operation states of electric power system can be considered, also will consider the impact of multiple factor pair scheduling operation practical risk.

In order to solve the problems of the technologies described above, embodiments provide a kind of method for the evaluation and test of distributed scheduling operational risk, described method comprises:

A, operation order is resolved into multiple step, obtain the mode of operation contained by each step difference, and the mode of operation contained by described each step difference got, obtain multiple operating result formed by choosing a mode of operation in each step, and calculate the probability that each operating result occurs respectively further;

B, determine the current risk state of described operation order, calculate the sequence severity of the corresponding current risk state of each operating result difference, and according to described each operating result the calculated sequence severity of corresponding current risk state and probability of corresponding generation thereof respectively, and the factor coefficient preset, obtain the value-at-risk of each operating result respectively corresponding current risk state, and the value-at-risk of described each operating result obtained corresponding current risk state is respectively carried out cumulative after export as the total risk value of described operation order; Wherein, described risk status comprises voltage out-of-limit, Branch Power Flow overload and load loss.

Wherein, described step a specifically comprises:

Described operation order is resolved into m step, and according to the setting means preset, determine the mode of operation contained by each step respectively; Wherein, described default setting means is specially setting three kinds of modes of operation, comprises successful operation and the equipment tripping of sustainable decomposition, and nondecomposable equipment explosion; Mode of operation contained in first step needs initial setting to comprise described three kinds of modes of operation, and in second step and m step, contained mode of operation all needs to be that the successful operation of described sustainable decomposition or equipment tripping correspondence resolve into described three kinds of modes of operation by mode of operation arbitrary in previous step; M be greater than 1 natural number;

In described first step to described m step, count the probability that in each step, arbitrary mode of operation occupies respectively; Wherein, in same step, shared by same operation state, probability does not add up;

By forming the array mode of a corresponding operating result by choosing a mode of operation successively in described first step to described m step, obtain multiple operating result;

In same operating result, shared by being counted respectively by mode of operation in its corresponding described first step to described m step, probability is multiplied, and by the long-pending probability being respectively its corresponding generation that is multiplied of each operating result gained described.

Wherein, described step b specifically comprises:

Load flow calculation is carried out by adopting default method, determine that the current risk state of described operation order is voltage out-of-limit, and according to the nodes of voltage out-of-limit and the out-of-limit severity function of default node voltage, calculate each operating result sequence severity that corresponding voltage is out-of-limit respectively, and according to described each operating result calculated sequence severity that corresponding voltage is out-of-limit respectively and the corresponding probability occurred thereof, and the factor coefficient preset, obtain each operating result value-at-risk that corresponding voltage is out-of-limit respectively, and the total risk value as described operation order after described each operating result obtained value-at-risk that corresponding voltage is out-of-limit respectively being carried out adding up exports.

Wherein, described step b specifically also comprises:

Load flow calculation is carried out by adopting default method, determine that the current risk state of described operation order is Branch Power Flow overload, and according to occurring the circuitry number that Branch Power Flow transships and default Branch Power Flow overload severity function, calculate the sequence severity of the corresponding Branch Power Flow overload of each operating result difference, and according to described each operating result the calculated sequence severity of corresponding Branch Power Flow overload and probability of corresponding generation thereof respectively, and the factor coefficient preset, obtain the value-at-risk of the corresponding Branch Power Flow overload of each operating result difference, and the value-at-risk of described each operating result obtained corresponding Branch Power Flow overload is respectively carried out cumulative after export as the total risk value of described operation order.

Wherein, described step b specifically also comprises:

Load flow calculation is carried out by adopting default method, determine that the current risk state of described operation order is load loss, and according to occurring the nodes of load summate and default load loss severity function, calculate the sequence severity of the corresponding load loss of each operating result difference, and according to described each operating result the calculated sequence severity of corresponding load loss and probability of corresponding generation thereof respectively, and the factor coefficient preset, obtain the value-at-risk of the corresponding load loss of each operating result difference, and the value-at-risk of described each operating result obtained corresponding load loss is respectively carried out cumulative after export as the total risk value of described operation order.

Wherein, described default factor coefficient is that among social influence factor coefficient, scheduling overhaul management factor coefficient, weather effect factor coefficient, it is a kind of or it is multiple.

The embodiment of the present invention additionally provides a kind of system for the evaluation and test of distributed scheduling operational risk, and described system comprises:

Step is decomposed and probability acquiring unit, for operation order is resolved into multiple step, obtain the mode of operation contained by each step difference, and the mode of operation contained by described each step difference got, obtain multiple operating result formed by choosing a mode of operation in each step, and calculate the probability that each operating result occurs respectively further;

Risk evaluation and test unit, for determining the current risk state of described operation order, calculate the sequence severity of the corresponding current risk state of each operating result difference, and according to described each operating result the calculated sequence severity of corresponding current risk state and probability of corresponding generation thereof respectively, and the factor coefficient preset, obtain the value-at-risk of each operating result respectively corresponding current risk state, and the value-at-risk of described each operating result obtained corresponding current risk state is respectively carried out cumulative after export as the total risk value of described operation order; Wherein, described risk status comprises voltage out-of-limit, Branch Power Flow overload and load loss.

Wherein, described risk evaluation and test unit comprises:

First risk evaluation and test module, method for being preset by employing carries out Load flow calculation, determine that the current risk state of described operation order is voltage out-of-limit, and according to the nodes of voltage out-of-limit and the out-of-limit severity function of default node voltage, calculate each operating result sequence severity that corresponding voltage is out-of-limit respectively, and according to described each operating result calculated sequence severity that corresponding voltage is out-of-limit respectively and the corresponding probability occurred thereof, and the factor coefficient preset, obtain each operating result value-at-risk that corresponding voltage is out-of-limit respectively, and the total risk value as described operation order after described each operating result obtained value-at-risk that corresponding voltage is out-of-limit respectively being carried out adding up exports.

Wherein, described risk evaluation and test unit also comprises:

Second risk evaluation and test module, method for being preset by employing carries out Load flow calculation, determine that the current risk state of described operation order is Branch Power Flow overload, and according to occurring the circuitry number that Branch Power Flow transships and default Branch Power Flow overload severity function, calculate the sequence severity of the corresponding Branch Power Flow overload of each operating result difference, and according to described each operating result the calculated sequence severity of corresponding Branch Power Flow overload and probability of corresponding generation thereof respectively, and the factor coefficient preset, obtain the value-at-risk of the corresponding Branch Power Flow overload of each operating result difference, and the value-at-risk of described each operating result obtained corresponding Branch Power Flow overload is respectively carried out cumulative after export as the total risk value of described operation order.

Wherein, described risk evaluation and test unit also comprises:

3rd risk evaluation and test module, method for being preset by employing carries out Load flow calculation, determine that the current risk state of described operation order is load loss, and according to occurring the nodes of load summate and default load loss severity function, calculate the sequence severity of the corresponding load loss of each operating result difference, and according to described each operating result the calculated sequence severity of corresponding load loss and probability of corresponding generation thereof respectively, and the factor coefficient preset, obtain the value-at-risk of the corresponding load loss of each operating result difference, and the value-at-risk of described each operating result obtained corresponding load loss is respectively carried out cumulative after export as the total risk value of described operation order.

Implement the embodiment of the present invention, there is following beneficial effect:

In embodiments of the present invention, owing to operation order can be carried out resolving into multiple step, and according to considering the multi-risk System factor (as the social influence factor, the scheduling overhaul management Summing Factor weather effect factor), different risk status is evaluated and tested, draw total risk value more accurately, thus reach the impact can considering that the distributed step of operation order causes operation states of electric power system, also to consider the object of the impact of multiple factor pair scheduling operation practical risk.

Accompanying drawing explanation

In order to be illustrated more clearly in the embodiment of the present invention or technical scheme of the prior art, be briefly described to the accompanying drawing used required in embodiment or description of the prior art below, apparently, accompanying drawing in the following describes is only some embodiments of the present invention, for those of ordinary skill in the art, under the prerequisite not paying creative work, the accompanying drawing obtaining other according to these accompanying drawings still belongs to category of the present invention.

The process flow diagram of a kind of method for the evaluation and test of distributed scheduling operational risk that Fig. 1 provides for the embodiment of the present invention;

The structural representation of a kind of method application scenarios for the evaluation and test of distributed scheduling operational risk that Fig. 2 provides for the embodiment of the present invention;

The structural representation of a kind of system for the evaluation and test of distributed scheduling operational risk that Fig. 3 provides for the embodiment of the present invention.

Embodiment

For making the object, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention clearly, below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, the present invention is described in further detail.

As shown in Figure 1, in the embodiment of the present invention, a kind of method for the evaluation and test of distributed scheduling operational risk provided, described method comprises:

Step S1, operation order is resolved into multiple step, obtain the mode of operation contained by each step difference, and the mode of operation contained by described each step difference got, obtain multiple operating result formed by choosing a mode of operation in each step, and calculate the probability that each operating result occurs respectively further;

Detailed process is, step S11, operation order is resolved into m step, and according to the setting means preset, determines the mode of operation contained by each step respectively; Wherein, the setting means preset is specially setting three kinds of modes of operation, comprises successful operation and the equipment tripping of sustainable decomposition, and nondecomposable equipment explosion; Mode of operation contained in first step needs initial setting to comprise above-mentioned three kinds of modes of operation, and in second step and m step, contained mode of operation all needs to be that the successful operation of described sustainable decomposition or equipment tripping correspondence resolve into above-mentioned three kinds of modes of operation by mode of operation arbitrary in previous step; M be greater than 1 natural number;

Step S12, at first step in m step, count the probability that in each step, arbitrary mode of operation occupies respectively; Wherein, in same step, shared by same operation state, probability does not add up;

Step S13, by form the array mode of a corresponding operating result by choosing a mode of operation successively in first step to m step, obtain multiple operating result;

Step S14, in same operating result, shared by being counted respectively by mode of operation in its corresponding first step to m step, probability is multiplied, and being multiplied of each operating result gained is ly long-pendingly respectively its corresponding probability occurred.

In embodiments of the present invention, the operating result collection of the operation order be made up of m step can be expressed as: wherein, represent i-th kind of operating result, N=3 × 2 ^m-1;

Each operating result can be expressed as: wherein, for the mode of operation of jth step, one among successful operation, equipment tripping, equipment explosion can be divided into, and corresponding operating shape probability of state can be obtained by historical data;

Therefore, the probability that i-th operating result of operation order occurs is: wherein, it is the probability that in i-th operating result, jth step mode of operation occurs.Shared by the same operation state that it should be noted that same step in arbitrary operating result, probability does not add up.

As an example, operation order is resolved into three steps, the mode of operation of each step correspondence is successful operation, one among equipment tripping, equipment explosion.Be the successful operation of sustainable decomposition or the step of equipment tripping for mode of operation, will the decomposition of next step be continued; For the step that mode of operation is nondecomposable equipment explosion, next step will be stopped.

As shown in Figure 2, using scheduling operation risk as top event, fault tree principle is utilized to explain scheduling operation risk sources, every one deck of fault tree represents a step, each point represents the mode of operation of a step, a paths from the bottom of fault tree to top represents a kind of possible operation result of this operation order, correspond to a kind of system topological state.

Step S2, determine the current risk state of described operation order, calculate the sequence severity of the corresponding current risk state of each operating result difference, and according to described each operating result the calculated sequence severity of corresponding current risk state and probability of corresponding generation thereof respectively, and the factor coefficient preset, obtain the value-at-risk of each operating result respectively corresponding current risk state, and the value-at-risk of described each operating result obtained corresponding current risk state is respectively carried out cumulative after export as the total risk value of described operation order; Wherein, described risk status comprises voltage out-of-limit, Branch Power Flow overload and load loss.

Detailed process is, to the topology status that scheduling operation is formed, Niu Lafa is adopted to carry out Load flow calculation, the current risk state of determination operation ticket, this risk status comprises voltage out-of-limit, Branch Power Flow overload and load loss, and calculate the sequence severity that current risk state is respectively voltage out-of-limit, Branch Power Flow overload and load loss, thus obtain the total risk value of the corresponding different risk status of operation order.It should be noted that default factor coefficient is that among social influence factor coefficient, scheduling overhaul management factor coefficient, weather effect factor coefficient, it is a kind of or it is multiple.

The total risk value of the corresponding different risk status of operation order, its specific implementation is as follows:

A () carries out Load flow calculation by adopting the method preset, determine that the current risk state of operation order is voltage out-of-limit, and according to the nodes of voltage out-of-limit and the out-of-limit severity function of default node voltage, calculate each operating result sequence severity that corresponding voltage is out-of-limit respectively, and according to each operating result calculated sequence severity that corresponding voltage is out-of-limit respectively and the corresponding probability occurred thereof, and the factor coefficient preset, obtain each operating result value-at-risk that corresponding voltage is out-of-limit respectively, and the total risk value as operation order after each operating result obtained value-at-risk that corresponding voltage is out-of-limit respectively being carried out adding up exports,

Be specially, when the current risk state of operation order is voltage out-of-limit, by formula (1), calculate each operating result sequence severity that corresponding voltage is out-of-limit respectively:

$S_U=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\Σ}}S\left(U_i\right)---\left(1\right)$

In formula (1), n is the nodes occurring voltage out-of-limit; S (U _i) be the out-of-limit severity function of node voltage, this function is defined as: $S\left(U_i\right)=\left\{\begin{array}{c}\frac{1-U_i}{1-0.95}{U}_i<1\\ \frac{u-1}{1.05-1}{U}_i>1\end{array}\right\};$

Further according to formula (2), calculate each operating result value-at-risk that corresponding voltage is out-of-limit respectively:

$R_U^i={\mathrm{\&alpha;}}_s{\mathrm{\&alpha;}}_e{\mathrm{\&alpha;}}_w{P}_i{S}_U^i---\left(2\right)$

In formula (2), for operating result the value-at-risk that corresponding voltage is out-of-limit; P _ifor operating result the probability occurred; for operating result the sequence severity that corresponding voltage is out-of-limit; α _s, α _eand α _wbe respectively social influence factor coefficient (as shown in table 1), scheduling overhaul management factor coefficient (as shown in table 2) and weather effect factor coefficient (as shown in table 3):

Table 1:

Scheduling time	General period	Particular time protects power supply	Secondary protects power supply	One-level protects power supply	Superfine guarantor is powered
						Score value	1	1.2	1.4	1.6	2

Table 2:

Type	Planned dispatching is overhauled	Unplanned scheduling maintenance	Accident maintenance
				Score value	1	1.5	2

Table 3:

Type

Normally

Typhoon

Heavy rain strong wind

Risk of forest fire

High temperature

Dense fog

Freeze

Score value

1

1～4

1～2

1～1.5

1～1.2

1～1.2

1～1.5

According to formula (3), the total risk value as operation order after each operating result value-at-risk that corresponding voltage is out-of-limit respectively being carried out adding up exports:

$R_U=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\&Sigma;}}{R}_U^i---\left(3\right)$

In formula (3), R _ufor operation order corresponding voltage out-of-limit time total risk value.

B () carries out Load flow calculation by adopting the method preset, determine that the current risk state of operation order is Branch Power Flow overload, and according to occurring the circuitry number that Branch Power Flow transships and default Branch Power Flow overload severity function, calculate the sequence severity of the corresponding Branch Power Flow overload of each operating result difference, and according to each operating result calculated sequence severity of corresponding Branch Power Flow overload and probability of corresponding generation thereof respectively, and the factor coefficient preset, obtain the value-at-risk of the corresponding Branch Power Flow overload of each operating result difference, and the value-at-risk of each operating result obtained corresponding Branch Power Flow overload is respectively carried out cumulative after export as the total risk value of operation order,

Be specially, when the current risk state of operation order is Branch Power Flow overload, by formula (4), calculate the sequence severity of the corresponding Branch Power Flow overload of each operating result difference:

$S_p=\underset{j=1}{\overset{n}{\&Sigma;}}S\left(p_j\right)---\left(4\right)$

In formula (4), m is the circuitry number occurring that trend is transshipped; S (P _j) be Branch Power Flow overload severity function, this function is defined as: $S\left(P_j\right)=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}\frac{P_j-0.9}{1-0.9}& P_j<1\\ 0& P_j>1\end{array}\right\};$

Further according to formula (5), calculate the value-at-risk of the corresponding Branch Power Flow overload of each operating result difference:

$R_P^i={\mathrm{\&alpha;}}_s{\mathrm{\&alpha;}}_e{\mathrm{\&alpha;}}_w{P}_i{S}_P^i---\left(5\right)$

In formula (5), for operating result the value-at-risk of corresponding Branch Power Flow overload; P _ifor operating result the probability occurred; for operating result the sequence severity of corresponding Branch Power Flow overload; α _s, α _eand α _wbe respectively social influence factor coefficient (as shown in table 1), scheduling overhaul management factor coefficient (as shown in table 2) and weather effect factor coefficient (as shown in table 3);

According to formula (6), the value-at-risk of each operating result corresponding Branch Power Flow overload is respectively carried out cumulative after export as the total risk value of operation order:

$R_P=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\&Sigma;}}{R}_P^i---\left(6\right)$

In formula (6), R _ptotal risk value during Branch Power Flow overload corresponding to operation order.

C () carries out Load flow calculation by adopting the method preset, determine that the current risk state of operation order is load loss, and according to occurring the nodes of load summate and default load loss severity function, calculate the sequence severity of the corresponding load loss of each operating result difference, and according to each operating result calculated sequence severity of corresponding load loss and probability of corresponding generation thereof respectively, and the factor coefficient preset, obtain the value-at-risk of the corresponding load loss of each operating result difference, and the value-at-risk of each operating result obtained corresponding load loss is respectively carried out cumulative after export as the total risk value of operation order.

Be specially, when the current risk state of operation order is load loss, by formula (7), calculate the sequence severity of the corresponding load loss of each operating result difference:

$S_L=\underset{k=1}{\overset{v}{\&Sigma;}}S\left(L_k\right)---\left(7\right)$

In formula (7), v is the nodes occurring load summate; S (L _k) be load loss severity function, this function is defined as: S (L _k)=α _kl _k; Wherein, α _kfor the important coefficient of this load, L _kthe power of this load;

Further according to formula (8), calculate the value-at-risk of the corresponding load loss of each operating result difference:

$R_L^i={\mathrm{\&alpha;}}_s{\mathrm{\&alpha;}}_e{\mathrm{\&alpha;}}_w{P}_i{S}_L^i---\left(8\right)$

In formula (8), for operating result the value-at-risk of corresponding load loss; P _ifor operating result the probability occurred; for operating result the sequence severity of corresponding load loss; α _s, α _eand α _wbe respectively social influence factor coefficient (as shown in table 1), scheduling overhaul management factor coefficient (as shown in table 2) and weather effect factor coefficient (as shown in table 3);

According to formula (9), the value-at-risk of each operating result corresponding load loss is respectively carried out cumulative after export as the total risk value of operation order:

$R_L=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\&Sigma;}}{R}_L^i---\left(9\right)$

In formula (9), R _ltotal risk value during Branch Power Flow overload corresponding to operation order.

As shown in Figure 3, in the embodiment of the present invention, a kind of system for the evaluation and test of distributed scheduling operational risk provided, described system comprises:

Step is decomposed and probability acquiring unit 310, for operation order is resolved into multiple step, obtain the mode of operation contained by each step difference, and the mode of operation contained by described each step difference got, obtain multiple operating result formed by choosing a mode of operation in each step, and calculate the probability that each operating result occurs respectively further;

Risk evaluation and test unit 320, for determining the current risk state of described operation order, calculate the sequence severity of the corresponding current risk state of each operating result difference, and according to described each operating result the calculated sequence severity of corresponding current risk state and probability of corresponding generation thereof respectively, and the factor coefficient preset, obtain the value-at-risk of each operating result respectively corresponding current risk state, and the value-at-risk of described each operating result obtained corresponding current risk state is respectively carried out cumulative after export as the total risk value of described operation order; Wherein, described risk status comprises voltage out-of-limit, Branch Power Flow overload and load loss.

Wherein, described risk evaluation and test unit 320 comprises:

First risk evaluation and test module 3201, method for being preset by employing carries out Load flow calculation, determine that the current risk state of described operation order is voltage out-of-limit, and according to the nodes of voltage out-of-limit and the out-of-limit severity function of default node voltage, calculate each operating result sequence severity that corresponding voltage is out-of-limit respectively, and according to described each operating result calculated sequence severity that corresponding voltage is out-of-limit respectively and the corresponding probability occurred thereof, and the factor coefficient preset, obtain each operating result value-at-risk that corresponding voltage is out-of-limit respectively, and the total risk value as described operation order after described each operating result obtained value-at-risk that corresponding voltage is out-of-limit respectively being carried out adding up exports.

Wherein, described risk evaluation and test unit also comprises:

Second risk evaluation and test module 3202, method for being preset by employing carries out Load flow calculation, determine that the current risk state of described operation order is Branch Power Flow overload, and according to occurring the circuitry number that Branch Power Flow transships and default Branch Power Flow overload severity function, calculate the sequence severity of the corresponding Branch Power Flow overload of each operating result difference, and according to described each operating result the calculated sequence severity of corresponding Branch Power Flow overload and probability of corresponding generation thereof respectively, and the factor coefficient preset, obtain the value-at-risk of the corresponding Branch Power Flow overload of each operating result difference, and the value-at-risk of described each operating result obtained corresponding Branch Power Flow overload is respectively carried out cumulative after export as the total risk value of described operation order.

Wherein, described risk evaluation and test unit also comprises:

3rd risk evaluation and test module 3203, method for being preset by employing carries out Load flow calculation, determine that the current risk state of described operation order is load loss, and according to occurring the nodes of load summate and default load loss severity function, calculate the sequence severity of the corresponding load loss of each operating result difference, and according to described each operating result the calculated sequence severity of corresponding load loss and probability of corresponding generation thereof respectively, and the factor coefficient preset, obtain the value-at-risk of the corresponding load loss of each operating result difference, and the value-at-risk of described each operating result obtained corresponding load loss is respectively carried out cumulative after export as the total risk value of described operation order.

Implement the embodiment of the present invention, there is following beneficial effect:

In embodiments of the present invention, owing to operation order can be carried out resolving into multiple step, and according to considering the multi-risk System factor (as the social influence factor, the scheduling overhaul management Summing Factor weather effect factor), different risk status is evaluated and tested, draw total risk value more accurately, thus reach the impact can considering that the distributed step of operation order causes operation states of electric power system, also to consider the object of the impact of multiple factor pair scheduling operation practical risk.

It should be noted that in said system embodiment, each included system unit is carry out dividing according to function logic, but is not limited to above-mentioned division, as long as can realize corresponding function; In addition, the concrete title of each functional unit, also just for the ease of mutual differentiation, is not limited to protection scope of the present invention.

One of ordinary skill in the art will appreciate that all or part of step realized in above-described embodiment method is that the hardware that can carry out instruction relevant by program has come, described program can be stored in a computer read/write memory medium, described storage medium, as ROM/RAM, disk, CD etc.

Above disclosedly be only present pre-ferred embodiments, certainly can not limit the interest field of the present invention with this, therefore according to the equivalent variations that the claims in the present invention are done, still belong to the scope that the present invention is contained.

Claims (10)

1., for a method for distributed scheduling operational risk evaluation and test, it is characterized in that, described method comprises:

A, operation order is resolved into multiple step, obtain the mode of operation contained by each step difference, and the mode of operation contained by described each step difference got, obtain multiple operating result formed by choosing a mode of operation in each step, and calculate the probability that each operating result occurs respectively further;

B, determine the current risk state of described operation order, calculate the sequence severity of the corresponding current risk state of each operating result difference, and according to described each operating result the calculated sequence severity of corresponding current risk state and probability of corresponding generation thereof respectively, and the factor coefficient preset, obtain the value-at-risk of each operating result respectively corresponding current risk state, and the value-at-risk of described each operating result obtained corresponding current risk state is respectively carried out cumulative after export as the total risk value of described operation order; Wherein, described risk status comprises voltage out-of-limit, Branch Power Flow overload and load loss.

2. the method for claim 1, is characterized in that, described step a specifically comprises:

Described operation order is resolved into m step, and according to the setting means preset, determine the mode of operation contained by each step respectively; Wherein, described default setting means is specially setting three kinds of modes of operation, comprises successful operation and the equipment tripping of sustainable decomposition, and nondecomposable equipment explosion; Mode of operation contained in first step needs initial setting to comprise described three kinds of modes of operation, and in second step and m step, contained mode of operation all needs to be that the successful operation of described sustainable decomposition or equipment tripping correspondence resolve into described three kinds of modes of operation by mode of operation arbitrary in previous step; M be greater than 1 natural number;

In described first step to described m step, count the probability that in each step, arbitrary mode of operation occupies respectively; Wherein, in same step, shared by same operation state, probability does not add up;

By forming the array mode of a corresponding operating result by choosing a mode of operation successively in described first step to described m step, obtain multiple operating result;

In same operating result, shared by being counted respectively by mode of operation in its corresponding described first step to described m step, probability is multiplied, and by the long-pending probability being respectively its corresponding generation that is multiplied of each operating result gained described.

3. the method for claim 1, is characterized in that, described step b specifically comprises:

Load flow calculation is carried out by adopting default method, determine that the current risk state of described operation order is voltage out-of-limit, and according to the nodes of voltage out-of-limit and the out-of-limit severity function of default node voltage, calculate each operating result sequence severity that corresponding voltage is out-of-limit respectively, and according to described each operating result calculated sequence severity that corresponding voltage is out-of-limit respectively and the corresponding probability occurred thereof, and the factor coefficient preset, obtain each operating result value-at-risk that corresponding voltage is out-of-limit respectively, and the total risk value as described operation order after described each operating result obtained value-at-risk that corresponding voltage is out-of-limit respectively being carried out adding up exports.

4. the method for claim 1, is characterized in that, described step b specifically also comprises:

Load flow calculation is carried out by adopting default method, determine that the current risk state of described operation order is Branch Power Flow overload, and according to occurring the circuitry number that Branch Power Flow transships and default Branch Power Flow overload severity function, calculate the sequence severity of the corresponding Branch Power Flow overload of each operating result difference, and according to described each operating result the calculated sequence severity of corresponding Branch Power Flow overload and probability of corresponding generation thereof respectively, and the factor coefficient preset, obtain the value-at-risk of the corresponding Branch Power Flow overload of each operating result difference, and the value-at-risk of described each operating result obtained corresponding Branch Power Flow overload is respectively carried out cumulative after export as the total risk value of described operation order.

5. the method for claim 1, is characterized in that, described step b specifically also comprises:

Load flow calculation is carried out by adopting default method, determine that the current risk state of described operation order is load loss, and according to occurring the nodes of load summate and default load loss severity function, calculate the sequence severity of the corresponding load loss of each operating result difference, and according to described each operating result the calculated sequence severity of corresponding load loss and probability of corresponding generation thereof respectively, and the factor coefficient preset, obtain the value-at-risk of the corresponding load loss of each operating result difference, and the value-at-risk of described each operating result obtained corresponding load loss is respectively carried out cumulative after export as the total risk value of described operation order.

6. the method according to any one of claim 1,3-5, is characterized in that, described default factor coefficient is that among social influence factor coefficient, scheduling overhaul management factor coefficient, weather effect factor coefficient, it is a kind of or it is multiple.

7., for a system for distributed scheduling operational risk evaluation and test, it is characterized in that, described system comprises:

Step is decomposed and probability acquiring unit, for operation order is resolved into multiple step, obtain the mode of operation contained by each step difference, and the mode of operation contained by described each step difference got, obtain multiple operating result formed by choosing a mode of operation in each step, and calculate the probability that each operating result occurs respectively further;

Risk evaluation and test unit, for determining the current risk state of described operation order, calculate the sequence severity of the corresponding current risk state of each operating result difference, and according to described each operating result the calculated sequence severity of corresponding current risk state and probability of corresponding generation thereof respectively, and the factor coefficient preset, obtain the value-at-risk of each operating result respectively corresponding current risk state, and the value-at-risk of described each operating result obtained corresponding current risk state is respectively carried out cumulative after export as the total risk value of described operation order; Wherein, described risk status comprises voltage out-of-limit, Branch Power Flow overload and load loss.

8. system as claimed in claim 7, is characterized in that, described risk evaluation and test unit comprises:

First risk evaluation and test module, method for being preset by employing carries out Load flow calculation, determine that the current risk state of described operation order is voltage out-of-limit, and according to the nodes of voltage out-of-limit and the out-of-limit severity function of default node voltage, calculate each operating result sequence severity that corresponding voltage is out-of-limit respectively, and according to described each operating result calculated sequence severity that corresponding voltage is out-of-limit respectively and the corresponding probability occurred thereof, and the factor coefficient preset, obtain each operating result value-at-risk that corresponding voltage is out-of-limit respectively, and the total risk value as described operation order after described each operating result obtained value-at-risk that corresponding voltage is out-of-limit respectively being carried out adding up exports.

9. system as claimed in claim 7, is characterized in that, described risk evaluation and test unit also comprises:

Second risk evaluation and test module, method for being preset by employing carries out Load flow calculation, determine that the current risk state of described operation order is Branch Power Flow overload, and according to occurring the circuitry number that Branch Power Flow transships and default Branch Power Flow overload severity function, calculate the sequence severity of the corresponding Branch Power Flow overload of each operating result difference, and according to described each operating result the calculated sequence severity of corresponding Branch Power Flow overload and probability of corresponding generation thereof respectively, and the factor coefficient preset, obtain the value-at-risk of the corresponding Branch Power Flow overload of each operating result difference, and the value-at-risk of described each operating result obtained corresponding Branch Power Flow overload is respectively carried out cumulative after export as the total risk value of described operation order.

10. system as claimed in claim 7, is characterized in that, described risk evaluation and test unit also comprises:

3rd risk evaluation and test module, method for being preset by employing carries out Load flow calculation, determine that the current risk state of described operation order is load loss, and according to occurring the nodes of load summate and default load loss severity function, calculate the sequence severity of the corresponding load loss of each operating result difference, and according to described each operating result the calculated sequence severity of corresponding load loss and probability of corresponding generation thereof respectively, and the factor coefficient preset, obtain the value-at-risk of the corresponding load loss of each operating result difference, and the value-at-risk of described each operating result obtained corresponding load loss is respectively carried out cumulative after export as the total risk value of described operation order.