CN105512962B - A kind of gas insulated combined electrical equipment state of insulation comprehensive estimation method - Google Patents

A kind of gas insulated combined electrical equipment state of insulation comprehensive estimation method Download PDF

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CN105512962B
CN105512962B CN201610021011.7A CN201610021011A CN105512962B CN 105512962 B CN105512962 B CN 105512962B CN 201610021011 A CN201610021011 A CN 201610021011A CN 105512962 B CN105512962 B CN 105512962B
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state
layer
index
weight
gis
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CN105512962A (en
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唐炬
曾福平
张晓星
金淼
陈玉峰
郑建
王辉
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Wuhan University WHU
State Grid Shandong Electric Power Co Ltd
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State Grid Shandong Electric Power Co Ltd
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    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06QDATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/06Electricity, gas or water supply
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06FELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
    • G06F30/00Computer-aided design [CAD]
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06FELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
    • G06F2119/00Details relating to the type or aim of the analysis or the optimisation
    • G06F2119/04Ageing analysis or optimisation against ageing

Abstract

The invention belongs to the state of insulation on-line monitoring of gas insulated combined electrical equipment and assessment technology fields, and in particular to a kind of GIS state of insulations comprehensive estimation method.The present invention is mainly divided by GIS Condition assessment of insulation Index system framework structure, GIS insulation evaluation indexes weight calculation, based on fuzzy theory GIS state of insulations and is formed based on four parts of evidence theory fusion multi source status assessment mathematical model.The present invention relates to evaluation index, assessment models are comprehensively reliable, assessment result is concise, can be in Practical Project field popularization application.The present invention considers that GIS self-operating conditions are limited, comprehensive index system of the complementary information structure consersion unit state of insulation under the conditions of different monitorings can be utilized, and with reference to expertise, introduce fuzzy theory and Data-Fusion theory, so as to fulfill the comprehensive assessment of GIS device state of insulation, the multi-source information assessment for same category of device provides a kind of reliable scheme comprehensively.

Description

A kind of gas insulated combined electrical equipment state of insulation comprehensive estimation method
Technical field
The invention belongs to the state of insulation on-line monitoring of gas insulated combined electrical equipment and assessment technology fields, and in particular to one Kind gas insulated combined electrical equipment state of insulation comprehensive estimation method.
Background technology
With the quickening of social process of industrialization, the power equipment to put into operation is increasing, and coverage area is also increasing, by It not only makes troubles in the power outage caused by electrical equipment fault to life, also results in serious economic loss.Right While Power System Reliability carries out numerous studies, the reliability of power equipment also can not be ignored, especially apparatus insulated property It can be in the aging problem under the Various Complexes factor collective effect such as working voltage, environment temperature/humidity.
Gas insulated combined electrical equipment (Gas Insulated Switchgear, GIS) is also known as SF6Totally-enclosed insulation combined electric Device is key equipment of equal importance with transformer in power transmission and transformation system.It is using the SF6 for having superior isolation and arc extinction performance The combination of the elements such as breaker, disconnecting switch and mutual inductor is sealed in a metal shell by gas as dielectric.Due to The compactedness and complexity of GIS interior spatial structures so that GIS internal evaluations and maintenance are extremely difficult, and failure has in inside The propagation in limit space can also influence the performance of non-faulting element, cause larger range of failure.GIS device failure cause is various, But equipment fault accounts for about half as caused by insulation.It is bad due to insulating especially for the GIS device to have put into operation 20 years or more The risk that changing causes failure to occur is even more that can not despise.
Realize that GIS device repair based on condition of component ensures that the primary premise of its safe and reliable operation is accurate evaluation actual insulation shape State and identification early stage Hidden fault.GIS device Condition assessment of insulation refers to according to the current actual motion state of equipment, with reference to Equipment essential history information, the overall merit implemented to the health status that equipment is presently in.The evaluation of reaction state of insulation refers to It marks numerous, includes the influence factor of not ipsilateral, different characteristic parameter differs to assessment result influence degree under same factor, this A bit all so that one of the reason of GIS device Condition assessment of insulation not a duck soup and current rarer this respect are studied.
At present, both at home and abroad power transmission and transformation equipment Condition assessment of insulation scheme establish research focus primarily upon transformer, The equipment such as cable, such as " the paper oil insulation aging shape based on local discharge characteristic parameter of Patent No. ZL200810233096.0 " the power cable with cross-linked polyethylene insulation state of insulation on-line monitoring of state appraisal procedure ", Patent No. ZL200610041888.9 Method " etc., and in terms of the status monitoring and assessment for gas insulated combined electrical equipment, it more concentrates on and the monitoring of failure is ground Study carefully, such as a kind of " the on-line monitoring positioning dress of local discharge of gas-insulator switchgear of Patent No. ZL 201020204616.8 Put ", " method of shelf depreciation and the inspection inside detection gas insulation in combined electric appliance equipment of Patent No. ZL201010156542.X Survey positioning device " etc., it is exhausted rarely assessment GIS further to be provided based on the existing data to the offline of GIS and on-line monitoring The scheme of edge level.
Due to the compactedness and complexity of GIS interior spatial structures so that GIS internal evaluations and maintenance are extremely difficult, and Failure can also influence the performance of non-faulting element in the propagation of the internal confined space, cause larger range of failure.And overhaul one The required average power off time of platform GIS device is than conventional electric substation head, caused economic loss also bigger.Therefore, if It can identify the early stage sign of latency insulation fault, and accurate judgement is made to its state of insulation, you can will in GIS device Best maintenance project is arranged before breaking down, failure is avoided to lead to bigger economic loss.
Invention content
The purpose of the present invention is be directed to existing SF6The PD of gas insulated electric apparatus detects each of its true state of insulation Kind method has its limitation, provides kind of a gas insulated combined electrical equipment state of insulation comprehensive estimation method.GIS device status monitoring Method is numerous and monitoring index is more, for there are ambiguity and uncertainty, and the dimension of various indexs is different between index, Value range is also not quite similar situation, and this programme introduces fuzzy mathematics theory and index degree of membership is handled.It is meanwhile different The influence degree of state parameter index for assessment result is also not quite similar, and the present invention program introduces evidence theory to different factor layers Influence result carry out fusion assessment.The present invention establishes GIS device Condition assessment of insulation and failure based on multi source status parameter Diagnostic model provides technical support, realizes that GIS device repair based on condition of component provides scientific basis and basis to be final, to electric power enterprise Higher engineering value will be had by carrying out equipment management.
The technical scheme is that:
A kind of gas insulated combined electrical equipment state of insulation comprehensive estimation method, the method is characterized in that, it specifically includes:
The sub-step of one GIS Condition assessment of insulation System Framework structure:By GIS device state of insulation according to three classes state The source attribute of information is differently formed Recurison order hierarchy, is from top to bottom followed successively by evaluation layer, factor layer and the selection of each factor layer Evaluation index layer;Wherein,
Layer one:Evaluation layer is set to H1, H2, H3, H4Four states:
State 1., normal condition H1Grade:Every quantity of state of equipment is in normal table;
State 2., attention state H2Grade:Find that certain quantity of states change and have a possibility close to warning value in inspection Trend;
State 3., abnormality H3Grade:A certain or various states amount is only slight beyond allowable value, reasonable arrangement maintenance Strategy does proper treatment to abnormality;
State 4., severe conditions H4Grade:Monitoring signals have a strong exception, and quantity of state is seriously above standard limit value, should use up It is fast to arrange interruption maintenance even more exchange device;
Layer two:It is F=that factor layer, which then chooses PD electric parameters, PD chemical parameters, GIS device preventive trial parameter definition, {f1, f2, f3, i.e., factor classification is returned to the index that is considered;
Layer three:Indicator layer chooses the PD electric parameters f for characterizing apparatus insulated state1={ e11, e12, e13, e14, e15, e16, e17, e18, e19, PD chemical parameters f2={ e21, e22, e23, e24, e25, e26And GIS device preventive trial feature ginseng Measure f3={ e31, e32, e33State of insulation index state of insulation indicator layer;
The sub-step of one GIS insulation evaluation index weight calculation:
Step 1.1,
e11, e12, e13, e14, e15, e16, e17, e18, e19, e21, e22, e23, e24, e25, e26, e31, e32, e33Determine for indicator layer Justice is first layer, and the Information base most basic as assessment system, selecting and sort, it is vital that the result of decision is played Effect, the significance level to each index of the step qualitative and quantitative carry out weight evaluation;
F={ f1, f2, f3Factor layer is defined as the second layer, a certain factor A is determined that m are specially by n evaluation index synthesis Family can be compared any two index according to experience knowledge, the judgment matrix A that k-th of expert obtains(k)For:WhereinRepresent that k-th of expert obtains in the relative importance of relatively i and j Quantized value, the quantization of expert opinion is carried out with most common 1~9 scaling law;In Judgement Matricies A(k)During it is necessary If meet same position expert has a respectively when judging two-by-two to the importance ranking of three indexsi> ajAnd aj> ak, then one Surely there is ai> ak, this ordinal consistency is then the criterion that must be strictly observed, and relationship is confusing between otherwise leading to index; I.e.:λmaxFor judgment matrix A(k)Maximum characteristic root, R.I. refers to Aver-age Random Consistency Index, C.I. it is matrix A(k)Consistency check index;The A of construction(k)For reciprocal matrix, therefore construct antisymmetric matrixIf there are Matrix Cs(k)So thatOverall mark Quasi- variances sigmaijMinimum then claims C(k)For B(k)Optimum transfer matrix, element calculation isParsing obtains the weight of j-th of evaluation index as a result, It is worth and is:Due to C(k)Naturally meet the consistency principle, so consistency inspection is not done It tests;In the first layer by M index to factor in last layer factor layer be frMode of Level Simple Sequence weight vectors can be e1r, e2r..., eMr(r=1,2 ..., R), and the second layer is R factor F={ f1, f2, f3To total weight order of destination layer to Amount, can be written as f1, f2..., fR, it can thus be concluded that i-th of index of bottom indicator layer is for the weights of target The weight of the factor is multiplied by with the weights sum of indexs all under some factor;
Step 1.2, relative inferiority degree, i.e., a certain true measured value of evaluation index and the phase between initial value and demand value are defined To relationship, dynamic calibration is carried out to weight, the subjectivity for remaining expert opinion is real also by the objective assignment method of changeable weight The truth of Shi Fanying GIS device state of insulations;Define Xrm0And XrmaFactor layer f is surveyed subject to respectivelyrUnder a certain assessment refer to Factory's initial value and the attention limit value of permission are marked, finds the manufacture initial value of the index of the indicator layer and the attention limit of permission Value utilizesWith Adjustment in order to ensure the economy of power equipment operation, generally allows have certain float near related regulation allowable value It is dynamic, it is represented with coefficient k, then for above-mentioned evaluation index, it can be approximately X that the limit value that regulation allows, which is multiplied by the coefficient,rmaReality Value, it is clear that for more big more Severe, k > 1, and smaller more Severe then takes k < 1;Impairment grade is normalized, two formulas difference It represents the smaller more Severe of index and the index the big more Severe;
Step 1.3, with the change of operating status, evaluation index may have the tendency that deterioration, so that in Decision Making Effect Degree change, dynamic can be combined and the method for static weight determines final comprehensive weight wRm, i,Wherein,For the static weight under criterion factor layer, xRm, iIt is then deterioration weight, δ ∈ [0,1] mainly cause the variation degree of weight to become weight parameter according to the index degradation in actual conditions;Obviously, when When not having impairment grade generation, δ=0 maintains original static weight constant;When δ=1, illustrate that original static weight is complete Full failure, take at this time one close to 0 small numerical approximation comprehensive weight at this time;
One calculates sub-step based on each index degree of membership of fuzzy theory GIS state of insulations:
For GIS device state of insulation H1, H2, H3, H4Fuzzy problem that may be present, with the person in servitude based on fuzzy theory Category degree function S (wM, i)={ μI, H1, μI, H2, μI, H3, μI, H4Judge that assessment models result of calculation belongs to the H1, H2, H3, H4 Which state, wherein μI, HmIt is under the jurisdiction of state H for index imDegree of membership;For a certain evaluation index of the indicator layer, The possibility degree of four kinds of state of insulations is adhered to separately to calculate with four functions:
Function one:The H is made in type ridge less than normal shape distribution4Membership function:
Function two:The H is made in the shape distribution of osculant ridge3Membership function:
Function three:The shape distribution of osculant ridge is then respectively as the work H2Membership function:
Function four:The H is made in the shape distribution of osculant ridge1Membership function:
In four membership functions, ai(i=1,2 ..., be 6) the fuzzy separation of four kinds of state grades, according to Definition understands a1=0.1, a2=0.3, a3=0.4, a4=0.6, a5=0.7, a6=0.9, and xriTwo may at most be belonged to simultaneously Class adjacent states;
The second layer factor layer f determined by the first layer indicator layerrIts degree of membership is represented by Pr(H):With reference to the comprehensive weight formulaThe comprehensive weight value of each status assessment index calculated is commented this makes it possible to obtain whole Estimate the original confidence level M obtained after r-th of combined factors fuzzy evaluation in systemr(H):
The sub-step of one GIS Condition assessment of insulation model based on the fusion of DS evidential reasonings:
By factor layer { f1, f2, f3Three evidence sources are defined as, before the fusion of three evidence sources, introduce confidence level system Number αr(r=1,2,3) characterizes weight of the different evidence sources to final decision result, it is assumed that the original confidence level Mr(H) be because Plain layer factor frOriginal basic probability assignment, can r after weight modification new m functions mr(H) it is:mr(H)=αrMr (H), andmr(θ) is the uncertain evidence probability assignments corrected after weight;Confidence level system herein Number αrIt can be by correcting original weight value αkIt is calculated, i.e.,wmaxFor f1, f2, f3Maximum value in weight;
The invention has the advantages that:1. the present invention provides a kind of gas insulated combined electrical equipment state of insulation comprehensive assessments Method compensates for existing SF6Gas insulated electric apparatus shortage considers the appraisal procedure of the state of insulation of comprehensive factor, is SF6The fault diagnosis of gas insulated electric apparatus and maintenance lay the foundation.2. the state index body in structure equipment of the present invention During system, the comprehensive factor of preventive trial of electrical, chemistry and equipment has been fully taken into account, has improved the GIS of foundation The accuracy of apparatus insulated state evaluating method and confidence level.3. the power of present invention structure GIS device Condition assessment of insulation index During redesign, with reference to static weight and changeable weight, the complicated variety of GIS has been fully considered and with operation shape The change evaluation index of state may have the tendency that the influence of deterioration, it is ensured that evaluation scheme final decision accuracy.4. structure of the present invention During the membership function for building four kinds of state of insulations of GIS device, introduce fuzzy theory and carry out evaluation index and state grade Degree of membership judge, it is ensured that state of insulation grade assessment accuracy.5. the present invention determines in the last assessment of GIS state of insulations During plan, by evidence theory fusion multi source status evaluation index, realize that the objective distribution acquisition of original probability is final accurate The result of decision be economic and practical method.6. the present invention relates to evaluation index, assessment models are comprehensively reliable, assessment result letter It is bright, it can be in Practical Project field popularization application.The present invention considers to be limited by GIS self-operating conditions so that it is true that PD detects it The various methods of real state of insulation have its limitation, however can utilize the complementary information structure reaction under the conditions of different monitorings Comprehensive index system of GIS device state of insulation, and with reference to expertise, utilize fuzzy theory processing different levels, single level Degree of membership calculates between index and state of insulation grade, so as to fulfill the comprehensive assessment of GIS device state of insulation.
Description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the apparatus insulated State Assessment Index System block diagram of the present invention.
Each index of index system that Fig. 2 is the present invention illustrates schematic diagram.
Fig. 3 is the UHF shelf depreciation diagnostic device DMS data of certain 110kV GIS device monitoring.
Fig. 4 is that the basic parameter of the non-temporal pattern of non-phase obtains schematic diagram (1. discharge pulse amplitude;2. two continuously put The time interval of electricity;3. discharging gap).
Fig. 5 is the PD chemical parameters that certain 110kV GIS device obtains offline.
Fig. 6 is GIS device Condition assessment of insulation model factor layer and index layer building schematic diagram.
Fig. 7 is 1~9 scaling law value criterion of typical case used.
Fig. 8 is Aver-age Random Consistency Index value result.
Fig. 9 is Static State Index weight calculation result.
Figure 10 is that the membership function of four kinds of state of insulation grades builds schematic diagram.
Figure 11 is the degree of membership value schematic diagram of evaluation index.
The GIS device Condition assessment of insulation model overall schematic that Figure 12 is merged based on fuzzy evidence reasoning.
Figure 13 is the schematic diagram of calculation result of three classes evidence source.
Figure 14 is the result schematic diagram that evidence source fusion reasoning calculates.
Specific embodiment
With reference to embodiment, it further illustrates the present invention.
Firstly the need of the real data based on Site Detection, the building process of GIS Condition assessment of insulation index systems is completed, Assessment Information base is provided for the gas insulated combined electrical equipment state of insulation comprehensive estimation method.GIS Condition assessment of insulation Index system establishment scheme as shown in Figure 1, the index system meaning as shown in Fig. 2, being carried out to certain 110kV GIS device SF6Gas insulated combined electrical equipment Condition assessment of insulation index is as follows:
First, PD electric parameters f1={ e11, e12, e13, e14, e15, e16, e17, e18, e19State of insulation index:① UHF PD data acquire, and PD electric parameters mostly come from pulse current method and ultra-high-frequency detection method (Ultra High Frequency, UHF) method, PD monitoring data, i.e. a large amount of time-domain sampling values of the ultra-high frequency signal q of PD are acquired by UHF methods.Directly It connects using UHF PD signals acquired to described No. #1 interval of 110kV GIS devices UHF shelf depreciation diagnostic device DMS such as Shown in Fig. 3.With variation (basic parameters of the Δ q/ Δs t) for the analysis of PD signals, the Jin Erxuan in the UHF signal q amplitude unit interval Take three basic parameters of shelf depreciation electric parameter:The time interval of discharge pulse amplitude (p), continuous two discharge pulses (illustration, extracts required basic parameter data in Δ t) and discharging gap (Δ T) such as Fig. 4.It is handed over power frequency sine The reference signal that signal f=Asin (314t) is PD monitoring signals data q is flowed, it is 0.04s that Δ T is set to 2 power frequency periods, By monitoring signals data-signal q's Interior obtained data withIt is interior Data extraction arrange as positive half period signalWith negative half-cycle signalMeanwhile take positive half period signalWith negative half period Phase signalInterior amplitude is more than 8mV statistics and is set to that discharge gage is primary, and time interval is directly subtracted each other with discharging time adjacent twice And obtain, then time interval also respectively constitutes sequence by the front/rear periodWithEntire collected 2000 power frequency period Data form sequence Δ T1..., Δ Tw..., Δ T1000.2. electric state index extraction, electric state index extraction process For:First, it is extracted pulse amplitude correlated condition parameter e11、e12、e13.Wherein, e11:Nmag,It is front/rear The electric discharge in periodThe total degree of superposition reflects front/rear periodic discharging repetitive rate;e12:Emag,WhereinThe half wave amplitude mean value for the front/rear period reflects strength of discharge, byIt obtains;e13:Smag,Amplitude standard deviation, wherein The half wave amplitude standard deviation for the front/rear period reflects the variation of front/rear periodic discharging pulse amplitude, byWithIt obtains.Second, it is extracted the relevant shape of time interval State property e14、e15、e16.Wherein, e14:Eint,InFor in the mean value of front/rear week interval Maximum value, describe the time interval discharged twice in succession, byWithIt calculates;e15:Nint,InThe sum of time interval superposition for the front/rear period, when describing discharge pulse sequence duration Between;e16:Sint,In takeThe time interval standard deviation maximum value in front/rear period, when describing Between the variation that is spaced, byWithIt obtains;Third is extracted electric discharge The relevant state parameter e in section17、e18、e19.Wherein, e17:ΔTmin,To characterize electric discharge interval feature;e18: P,To characterize the polar character of PD;e19:Nref,To characterize the polarity of PD spy Power frequency period, is averagely divided into 20 subintervals by sign, be more than or equal to 3 times using in each section and above electric discharge as whether being The decision criteria of electric discharge, so as to total discharge range N to the front/rear periodrefIt is counted.
Secondly, PD chemical parameters f2={ e21, e22, e23, e24, e25, e26State of insulation index.1. gas component data Acquisition:The gas of the acquisition 110kV GIS device #1 compartments, carries out what gas component measurement obtained with gas chromatograph SF6Four kinds of typical CF of characteristic gas of decomposition4、CO2、SO2F2、SOF2Content.2. chemical state index extraction:Chemical state Index extraction process is:First, using the sum of all sulfur compounds as SF6Gas molecule decomposes the embodiment extraction of total amount containing sulphur content It solves object and decomposes total amount state parameter e21:c(SOF2)+c(SO2F2).Second, extract the content ratio state parameter of gas component e22、e23、e24, wherein state parameter e22For c (SOF2)/c(SO2F2), e23For c (CF4)/c(CO2)、e24For c (SOF2+SO2F2)/ c(CF4+CO2).Third, will be per the characteristic component content after sampling for 24 hoursWith the ratio of time interval Δ t For CO2With SO2F2Respective components are in the gas production rate (10 in jth day-6/ day), selection is measured herein and is carried out continuously 4 days, is substituted into and is surveyed Measure data formulaWithTo calculate γ ' (SO2F2)、 γ′(CO2) i.e. state parameter e25、e26, obtain data as shown in Figure 5.
Finally, the characteristic parameter f of preventive trial3={ e31, e32, e33State of insulation index, based on described The preventive trial of 110kV GIS devices acquires the gas of the 110kV GIS device #1 compartments, is measured with microwater device Moisture e31, test result display arc extinguishing gas chamber c (H2O)=163ppm.It is measured with air-leakage detector described The interior SF of 110kV GIS device #1 compartments6Gas leaks e32For 0.48 μ L/L.e33It is surveyed with Insulation Resistance Tester described The gas primary circuit insulation against ground resistance measured value of 110kV GIS device #1 compartments is about 7500M Ω.
Embodiment 1.
A kind of gas insulated combined electrical equipment state of insulation comprehensive estimation method, " the gas-insulated applied using the applicant Combined electrical apparatus state of insulation comprehensive estimation method, ", Condition assessment of insulation is carried out to GIS and is as follows:
(1) GIS device Condition assessment of insulation System Framework is built
The 110kV GIS devices state of insulation according to the source attribute of three classes status information is differently formed and passs stratum It is secondary, from top to bottom it is followed successively by the evaluation index layer of evaluation layer, factor layer and the selection of each factor layer.Wherein, evaluation layer according to 《Power transmission and transformation equipment state overhauling directive/guide》It is set to H with GIS device operating experience1, H2, H3, H4Four states:1. normal condition (H1 Grade):Every quantity of state of equipment is in normal table.2. attention state (H2Grade):Find that certain quantity of states become in inspection Change and have the possibility trend close to warning value.3. abnormality (H3Grade):A certain or various states amount is only slight beyond permission Limit value, reasonable arrangement Strategies of Maintenance do proper treatment to abnormality.4. severe conditions (H4Grade):Monitoring signals have strong different Often, quantity of state is seriously above standard limit value, should arrange interruption maintenance even more exchange device as early as possible.Factor layer is then chosen PD and is electrically joined Amount, PD chemical parameters, GIS device preventive trial parameter definition are F={ f1, f2, f3, i.e. being returned to the index that is considered Factor classification.Indicator layer chooses the PD electric parameters f for characterizing apparatus insulated state1={ e11, e12, e13, e14, e15, e16, e17, e18, e19, PD chemical parameters f2={ e21, e22, e23, e24, e25, e26And GIS device preventive trial characteristic parameter f3 ={ e31, e32, e33State of insulation index state of insulation index.
(2) GIS insulation evaluation index weight calculation
By e11, e12, e13, e14, e15, e16, e17, e18, e19, e21, e22, e23, e24, e25, e26, e31, e32, e33Indicator layer is determined Justice is first layer, and the Information base most basic as assessment system, selecting and sort, it is vital that the result of decision is played Effect, the significance level to each index of the step qualitative and quantitative carry out weight evaluation.F={ f1, f2, f3Factor layer is fixed Justice is the second layer, and for level composition as shown in fig. 6, its a certain factor A is determined by n evaluation index synthesis, m expert can be according to certainly Body Heuristics is compared any two index, the judgment matrix A that k-th of expert obtains(k)For:WhereinRepresent that k-th of expert obtains in the relative importance of relatively i and j Quantized value, carry out the quantization of expert opinion with being divided in most common 1~9 scaling law such as Fig. 7.In Judgement Matricies A(k) If must satisfy same position expert during has a respectively when judging two-by-two to the importance ranking of three indexsi> ajWith aj> ak, then centainly have ai> ak, this ordinal consistency is then the criterion that must be strictly observed, and otherwise can cause to close between index It is confusing.I.e.:λmaxFor judgment matrix A(k)Maximum characteristic root, R.I. refers to mean random Coincident indicator directly defines tables of data according to inspection information and substitutes into calculating as shown in Figure 8, and C.I. is matrix A(k)Consistency inspection Test index.Then matrix theory principle, the A of construction are utilized(k)For reciprocal matrix, And And structural matrix C(k), utilizeOverall standard variances sigmaijMinimum mathematic condition, calculates The C arrived(k)For B(k)Optimum transfer matrix, useTo every A element calculates.The weighted value of j-th of evaluation index is used as a result,It calculates, due to C(k) Naturally meet the consistency principle, so do not do consistency check.By M index to last layer factor layer in the first layer Middle factor is frMode of Level Simple Sequence weight vectors can be e1r, e2r..., eMr(r=1,2 ..., R), and the second layer be R because Element can be written as f to total orderweight vector of destination layer1, f2..., fR, it can thus be concluded that i-th of index of bottom indicator layer for The weights of target are:Institute in the result such as Fig. 9 calculated one by one each indicator layer measured and factor layer Show.
The manufacture initial value of the 110kV GIS devices and the attention limit value data of permission are found, define Xrm0And Xrma Factor layer f is surveyed subject to respectivelyrUnder a certain evaluation index manufacture initial value and permission attention limit value, utilizeWith Nearby there is certain float factor k to represent with allowable value, take k < 1 and index more big according to the smaller more Severe of index more Severe takes k > 1, and in order to calculate simplicity, float factor directly takes 1 herein, i.e., not to xrmCarry out floating modification.
Finally, joint dynamic and the method for static weight determine final comprehensive weight wRm, i, use formulaIt is calculated, wherein,For the static weight under criterion factor layer, xRm, iIt is then Weight is deteriorated, δ ∈ [0,1] directly take δ=0.001 that comprehensive weight is enabled to be similar to static weight to become weight parameter.
(3) the GIS Condition assessment of insulation models based on Fuzzy Evidence Theory
GIS Condition assessment of insulation model construction thinkings based on Fuzzy Evidence Theory are as shown in figure 12, for described 110kV GIS devices state of insulation introduces membership function S (wM, i)={ μI, H1, μI, H2, μI, H3, μI, H4Judge assessment models Result of calculation belongs to the H1, H2, H3, H4Which state, wherein μI, HmIt is under the jurisdiction of state H for index imDegree of membership.It is subordinate to It is as shown in Figure 10 to spend function, respectively:The H is made in type ridge less than normal shape distribution4Membership function:The H is made in the shape distribution of osculant ridge3Person in servitude Membership fuction:The shape distribution of osculant ridge is then It is respectively as the work H2Membership function:Make the H with the distribution of osculant ridge shape1 Membership function:Described four are subordinate to letter In number, ai(i=1,2 ..., be 6) the fuzzy separation of four kinds of state grades, substitute into a1=0.1, a2=0.3, a3=0.4, a4 =0.6, a5=0.7, a6=0.9, one by one each index number of indicator layer is substituted into formula to carry out evaluation index is calculated and be subordinate to It is as shown in figure 11 to spend value.
(4) the GIS Condition assessment of insulation models based on the fusion of DS evidential reasonings
By factor layer { f1, f2, f3Three evidence sources are defined as, before the fusion of three evidence sources, take preferential confidence level Factor alphak=0.9, substitute into formula(wmaxTake f1, f2, f3Maximum value in weight) confidence level factor alpha can be obtainedr =(0.9,0.8350,0.7145), by αrThe value of=(0.9,0.8350,0.7145) is with reference to the mr(H) calculation formula mr (H)=αrMr(H) andmr(θ) is the uncertain evidence probability assignments corrected after weight.And then it can obtain The original probability corresponding to respective uncertain judgement distributes mr(θ)=(0.1,0.1650,0.2855), then by mr(θ)= (0.1,0.1650,0.2855) withForm three classes evidence source Basic probability assignment table such as Figure 13 show.
Specific embodiment described herein is only an example for the spirit of the invention.Technology belonging to the present invention is led The technical staff in domain can do various modifications or additions to described specific embodiment or replace in a similar way In generation, however, it does not deviate from the spirit of the invention or beyond the scope of the appended claims.

Claims (2)

1. a kind of gas insulated combined electrical equipment state of insulation comprehensive estimation method, the method is characterized in that, it specifically includes:
The sub-step of one GIS Condition assessment of insulation System Framework structure:By GIS device state of insulation according to three classes status information Source attribute be differently formed Recurison order hierarchy, be from top to bottom followed successively by evaluation layer, factor layer and each factor layer selection comment Estimate indicator layer;Wherein,
Layer one:Evaluation layer is set to H1,H2,H3,H4Four states:
State 1., normal condition H1Grade:Every quantity of state of equipment is in normal table;
State 2., attention state H2Grade:It finds that quantity of state changes and has in inspection and reaches warning value;
State 3., abnormality H3Grade:A certain or various states amount has been more than allowable value, and reasonable arrangement Strategies of Maintenance is to different Normal state does proper treatment;
State 4., severe conditions H4Grade:Monitoring signals have a strong exception, and quantity of state is above standard limit value, should arrange to have a power failure as early as possible Maintenance even more exchange device;
Layer two:It is F={ f that factor layer, which then chooses PD electric parameters, PD chemical parameters, GIS device preventive trial parameter definition,1, f2,f3, i.e., factor classification is returned to the index that is considered;
Layer three:Indicator layer chooses the PD electric parameters f for characterizing apparatus insulated state1={ e11,e12,e13,e14,e15,e16,e17, e18,e19, PD chemical parameters, f2={ e21,e22,e23,e24,e25,e26And GIS device preventive trial characteristic parameter f3 ={ e31,e32,e33State of insulation index state of insulation indicator layer;
The sub-step of one GIS insulation evaluation index weight calculation:
Step 1.1,
e11,e12,e13,e14,e15,e16,e17,e18,e19,e21,e22,e23,e24,e25,e26,e31,e32,e33It is defined as indicator layer First layer, as the Information base of assessment system, selection and sequence play a crucial role the result of decision, step The significance level to each index of 1.1 qualitative and quantitatives carries out weight evaluation;
F={ f1,f2,f3Factor layer is defined as the second layer, a certain factor A is determined by n evaluation index synthesis, m expert's meeting Any two index is compared according to experience knowledge, the judgment matrix A that k-th of expert obtains(k)For:WhereinRepresent that k-th of expert obtains in the relative importance of relatively i and j Quantized value, the quantization of expert opinion is carried out with most common 1~9 scaling law;In Judgement Matricies A(k)During it is necessary If meet same position expert has a respectively when judging two-by-two to the importance ranking of three indexsi> ajAnd aj> ak, then one Surely there is ai> ak, this ordinal consistency is then the criterion that must be strictly observed, and relationship is confusing between otherwise leading to index; I.e.:λmaxFor judgment matrix A(k)Maximum characteristic root, R.I. refers to Aver-age Random Consistency Index, C.R. it is matrix A(k)Consistency check index;The A of construction(k)For reciprocal matrix, therefore construct antisymmetric matrix B(k)If there are Matrix Cs(k)So thatOverall standard variance σijMinimum then claims C(k)For B(k)Optimum transfer matrix, element calculation isParsing obtains the weight of j-th of evaluation index as a result, It is worth and is:Due to C(k)Naturally meet the consistency principle, so consistency inspection is not done It tests;In first layer by M index to factor in last layer factor layer be frMode of Level Simple Sequence weight vectors be e1r,e2r,..., eMr(r=1,2 ..., R), and the second layer is R factor F={ f1,f2,f3To total orderweight vector of destination layer, it is written as f1,f2,...,fR, it can thus be concluded that i-th of index of bottom indicator layer is for the weights of targetUse some The weights sum of all indexs is multiplied by the weight of the factor under factor;
Step 1.2, relative inferiority degree is defined, i.e., the opposite pass between the true measured value of a certain evaluation index and initial value and demand value System carries out dynamic calibration to weight, and the subjectivity for remaining expert opinion is anti-in real time also by the objective assignment method of changeable weight Reflect the truth of GIS device state of insulation;Define Xrm0And XrmaFactor layer f is surveyed subject to respectivelyrUnder a certain evaluation index go out Factory's initial value and the attention limit value of permission find the manufacture initial value of index of the indicator layer and the attention limit value of permission, profit WithWithAdjustment, In order to ensure the economy of power equipment operation, allow to float near the allowable value of related regulation, be represented with coefficient k, then For above-mentioned evaluation index, the limit value that regulation allows is multiplied by the coefficient as XrmaPractical value, it is clear that for more bigger more serious Type, k > 1, and smaller more Severe then takes k < 1;Impairment grade is normalized, two formulas represent the smaller more Severe of index respectively And the index the big more Severe;
Step 1.3, with the change of operating status, evaluation index has deterioration, so that the degree in Decision Making Effect changes, joint The method of dynamic and static weight determines final comprehensive weightWherein, it is the static weight under criterion factor layer, xrm,iIt is then deterioration weight, δ ∈ [0,1] is become weight parameter, according to actual conditions Middle index degradation causes the variation degree of weight;Obviously, when not having impairment grade generation, δ=0 maintains original static state Weight is constant;When δ=1, illustrate that original static weight is entirely ineffective, take at this time one close to 0 small numerical value thus When comprehensive weight;
One calculates sub-step based on each index degree of membership of fuzzy theory GIS state of insulations:
For GIS device state of insulation H1,H2,H3,H4Existing fuzzy problem, with the membership function S based on fuzzy theory (wm,i)={ μi,H1i,H2i,H3i,H4Judge that assessment models result of calculation belongs to the H1,H2,H3,H4Which state, Wherein μi,HmIt is under the jurisdiction of state H for index imDegree of membership;For a certain evaluation index of the indicator layer, four kinds are adhered to separately The possibility degree of state of insulation is calculated with four functions:
Function one:H is made in type ridge less than normal shape distribution4Membership function:
Function two:H is made in the shape distribution of osculant ridge3Membership function:
Function three:H is made in the shape distribution of osculant ridge2Membership function:
Function four:H is made in the shape distribution of osculant ridge1Membership function:
In four membership functions, ai(i=1,2 ..., be 6) the fuzzy separation of four kinds of state grades, a is understood according to definition1= 0.1, a2=0.3, a3=0.4, a4=0.6, a5=0.7, a6=0.9, and xriAt most belong to two class adjacent states simultaneously;
The second layer factor layer f determined by first layer indicator layerrIts degree of membership is represented by Pr(H):With reference to comprehensive weight formulaMeter The comprehensive weight value for each status assessment index calculated, obscures this makes it possible to obtain r-th of combined factors in total evaluation system and comments The original confidence level M obtained after sentencingr(H):
The sub-step of one GIS Condition assessment of insulation model based on the fusion of DS evidential reasonings:
By factor layer { f1,f2,f3Three evidence sources are defined as, before the fusion of three evidence sources, introduce confidence level factor alphar (r=1,2,3) characterizes weight of the different evidence sources to final decision result, it is assumed that the original confidence level Mr(H) it is factor Certain factor f of layerrOriginal probability distribution, can r after weight modification new m functions mr(H) it is:mr(H)=αrMr(H), andmr(θ) is the uncertain evidence probability assignments corrected after weight;Confidence level factor alpharAmendment can be passed through Original weight value αkIt is calculated, i.e.,wmaxFor f1,f2,f3Maximum value in weight;
Defining evidence source has r kinds, then takes rule of combination to all m letters under n m function of the indicator layer belonging to each evidence source Number fusion evidence fusion formula: WithFusion solution is carried out, the evidence fusion formula is to entire evidence The stringent AND operation in source, takes mr(H) state evaluation belonging to maximum value in is final GIS state of insulations grade.
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