CN105426668A - Tropical cyclone potential impact evaluation method based on comprehensive intensity index - Google Patents

Tropical cyclone potential impact evaluation method based on comprehensive intensity index Download PDF

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CN105426668A
CN105426668A CN201510759626.5A CN201510759626A CN105426668A CN 105426668 A CN105426668 A CN 105426668A CN 201510759626 A CN201510759626 A CN 201510759626A CN 105426668 A CN105426668 A CN 105426668A
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CN105426668B (en
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马超
刘青青
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Tianjin University
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Abstract

The invention provides a tropical cyclone potential impact evaluation method based on a comprehensive intensity index. The method comprises the following steps: (1) dividing plane space into latitude-longitude grids of which the sizes are 2 degrees * 2 degrees, and carrying out statistics of the inter-decade path orientation time level of a tropical cyclone path passing each grid according to an inter-decade scale; (2) calculating the energy dissipation exponential value of a tropical cyclone in each time level in each grid, and accumulating the energy dissipation exponential values of the tropical cyclone in all time levels in the grid to obtain the grid inter-decade energy dissipation exponential value of the grid, wherein the grid inter-decade energy dissipation exponential value serves as an index reflecting the comprehensive intensity of the tropical cyclone; (3) acquiring a grid inter-decade path comparison orientation time level corresponding to each level of tropical cyclones at each magnitude of grid inter-decade energy dissipation exponential values according to the mean wind speed of all levels of tropical cyclones; and (4) building potential impact levels of the tropical cyclones, and evaluating potential impacts of the tropical cyclones on different regions. The tropical cyclone potential impact evaluation method can effectively evaluate the potential impacts of the tropical cyclones, and has important values in defending against tropical cyclone disasters and improving tropical cyclone disaster forecasting level.

Description

A kind of tropical cyclone potential impact appraisal procedure based on composite strength index
Technical field
The present invention relates to the tropical cyclone appraisal procedure in meteorological field, in particular, relate to a kind of tropical cyclone potential impact appraisal procedure based on composite strength index.
Background technology
Tropical cyclone (Tropicalcyclones, TCs) is a kind of diastrous weather system with powerful destructive power, and the disasters such as the blast caused by it, heavy rain and storm tide form grave danger all can to the life security of the mankind and national wealth.Nearly ten years, the impact of tropical cyclone on East Asia presents increase trend.China is located in west bank, the Pacific Ocean, seashore line length, is in the world by one of the most serious country of tropical cyclones influence.
The growth and development process of tropical cyclone is subject to the impact of the multiple extraneous factors such as tropical sea surface temperature, and its strength characteristic, influence degree and coverage etc. also change in time.Emanuel (2005) is when studying global warming to the affecting of Atlantic tropical cyclone intensity variation tendency, propose the energy dissipation index (PowerDissipationIndex characterizing tropical cyclone Latent destruction power, PDI), this Index Definition is the integration cube in whole life cycle of maximum wind velocity near boiling pot; This index has considered the frequency of tropical cyclone, intensity and life cycle, overcomes the restriction in the past studying separately its frequency or intensity.But henceforth adopt in the correlative study of energy dissipation index index as tropical cyclone intensity quantitative criteria, only from the whole lifetime of tropical cyclone, analyze or estimate its variation trends, do not consider the strength characteristic that the tropical cyclone of all generations in concrete a period of time embodies in zones of different, to analyze this period tropical cyclone to the potential impact of zones of different.Based on this, for a certain area, when tropical cyclone calamity damages data deficiency, be the active degree of research tropical cyclone in this region, be necessary to provide a kind of index judging tropical cyclone comprehensive strength, in order to the method for its potential impact of Efficient Evaluation.
Summary of the invention
The object of the invention is to overcome deficiency of the prior art, a kind of tropical cyclone potential impact appraisal procedure based on composite strength index is provided, in the inventive method in conjunction with history tropical cyclone at interval of set time location optimal path data set once, a kind of new tropical cyclone composite strength index is provided, for excavating its movable strong and weak development law, the potential impact of assessment tropical cyclone, for the early-warning and predicting and disaster prevention work carrying out tropical cyclone provides information and decision support.
The implication representated by technical term mentioned in the present invention is respectively:
TCs: tropical cyclone
IDT_RL: secondary during grid Interdecadal Variations path orientation
IDG_PDI: grid Interdecadal Variations energy dissipation exponential quantity
CT_RL: secondary during grid Interdecadal Variations path comparison and location
The object of the invention is to be achieved through the following technical solutions:
Based on a tropical cyclone potential impact appraisal procedure for composite strength index, comprise the steps:
(1) take precision as the longitude and latitude stress and strain model plane space of 2 ° × 2 °, according to existing Tropical Cyclone Route locating information, according to Interdecadal Variations time scale statistics Tropical Cyclone Route through the location time of each grid, time IDT_RL when obtaining grid Interdecadal Variations path orientation;
(2) secondary during each location in Tropical Cyclone Route in computing grid energy dissipation exponential quantity, the cumulative grid Interdecadal Variations energy dissipation exponential quantity IDG_PDI drawing single grid, as the composite strength index of reflection tropical cyclone; Wherein, the grid Interdecadal Variations energy dissipation exponential quantity of i-th grid t age is calculated concrete account form is as follows:
I D G _ PDI i t = Σ k = 1 I D T _ RL i t ( V i , t , k m ) 3 · T , i = 1 , 2 , ... , p ; t = 1 , 2 , ... , q
In formula, be the maximum wind velocity (m/s) of i-th grid within t age during kth path orientation time, when being the path orientation of i-th grid within t age time, minor tick time (s) when T is the location in Tropical Cyclone Route, p, q are positive integer;
(3) according to the mean wind speed that tropical cyclone each strength grade is corresponding, different intensity grades tropical cyclone is obtained under the grid Interdecadal Variations energy dissipation exponential quantity IDG_PDI condition of different magnitude, time CT_RL during corresponding grid Interdecadal Variations path comparison and location; Wherein, time CT_RL during the grid Interdecadal Variations path comparison and location that the grid Interdecadal Variations energy dissipation exponential quantity IDG_PDI of calculating jth potential impact grade is corresponding j, concrete account form is as follows:
C T _ RL j = I D G _ PDI j / [ ( V n ‾ ) 3 · T ] , n = 1 , 2 , ... , m
In formula, IDG_PDI jfor the grid Interdecadal Variations energy dissipation exponential quantity IDG_PDI (m of jth potential impact grade 3/ s 2), according to all determine, be the mean wind speed (m/s) that the n-th strength grade tropical cyclone is corresponding, minor tick time (s) when T is the location in Tropical Cyclone Route, m is positive integer;
(4) time CT_RL when time IDT_RL, grid Interdecadal Variations energy dissipation exponential quantity IDG_PDI and grid Interdecadal Variations path comparison and location during grid Interdecadal Variations path orientation according to all grids of survey region, set up tropical cyclone potential impact grade, assessment tropical cyclone is to the potential impact of zones of different and Spatio-Temporal Change Characteristics thereof.
Described step (1) midplane space is for institute's general study tropical cyclone is from the path expanded range generated to the whole lifetime process that dissipates, with this plane space of longitude and latitude stress and strain model that precision is 2 ° × 2 °, this plane space is divided into a × b sub regions, realize the compartmentalization of plane space, wherein a, b are positive integer.
The step obtaining time CT_RL during grid Interdecadal Variations path comparison and location in described step (3) comprises:
A1. according to the immediate vicinity maximum wind velocity scope of different intensity grades tropical cyclone, get the average of its minimum value and maximal value, obtain the mean wind speed that each strength grade of tropical cyclone is corresponding
Its minimum value and maximal value is found out in the grid Interdecadal Variations energy dissipation exponential quantity IDG_PDI of each grid A2. obtained in described step (2), determine the scope of grid Interdecadal Variations energy dissipation exponential quantity IDG_PDI, divide the grid Interdecadal Variations energy dissipation exponential quantity IDG_PDI of different magnitude according to this scope;
A3. corresponding according to each strength grade tropical cyclone obtained respectively in steps A 1 and steps A 2 mean wind speed with the grid Interdecadal Variations energy dissipation exponential quantity IDG_PDI of different magnitude, when can calculate corresponding grid Interdecadal Variations path orientation time, time CT_RL when being referred to as grid Interdecadal Variations path comparison and location.
Described step (4) calculates all grid Interdecadal Variations energy dissipation exponential quantity IDG_PDI according to step (2), by the tropical cyclone number of times of contingent typhoon and above strength grade under its different magnitude condition, and obtain respectively in step (1) and step (3) grid Interdecadal Variations path orientation time time IDT_RL and grid Interdecadal Variations path comparison and location time time CT_RL proportionate relationship, finally determine the potential impact grade of tropical cyclone, and then affect grade can assess tropical cyclone to the potential impact of zones of different and Spatio-Temporal Change Characteristics thereof according to this.
Compared with prior art, the beneficial effect that technical scheme of the present invention is brought is:
The present invention is based on the principle of energy dissipation of tropical cyclone, by stress and strain model plane space, the sub-trajectory fragment of Tropical Cyclone Route can be obtained, calculate the grid Interdecadal Variations energy dissipation exponential quantity of single grid, as the index of reflection tropical cyclone comprehensive strength; When time (IDT_RL) when adding up based on Interdecadal Variations single grid neutron path segment the grid Interdecadal Variations path orientation obtained, grid Interdecadal Variations energy dissipation exponential quantity (IDG_PDI) and grid Interdecadal Variations path comparison and location secondary (CT_RL), set up the potential impact grade of tropical cyclone, propose a kind of method that zones of different tropical cyclone potential impact is assessed; The present invention effectively can identify the space-time potential impact feature of tropical cyclone, for a certain region, fast and effeciently can assess the potential impact of tropical cyclone, for Regional Disaster mitigation provides technical support.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the schematic flow sheet of the inventive method.
Fig. 2 is that the tropical cyclone in each age generates position and path profile figure.
Time (IDT_RL) distribution plan when Fig. 3 is the tropical cyclone grid Interdecadal Variations path orientation in each age.
Fig. 4 is tropical cyclone grid Interdecadal Variations energy dissipation exponential quantity (IDG_PDI) distribution plan in each age.
Embodiment
For making objects and advantages of the present invention more clear and definite, below in conjunction with accompanying drawing and instantiation, the inventive method is specifically addressed:
Fig. 1 is schematic flow sheet of the present invention, first the 1950-2009 provided according to China Meteorological Administration (http://tcdata.typhoon.gov.cn/) is every 6h location tropical cyclone of northwestern Pacific Ocean (TCs) once, choose and locate wind speed first and reach 10.8m/s and above and life cycle is sample at 12h and above TCs, according to the inventive method, the potential impact of assessment TCs over 60 years, the TCs generation position of each Interdecadal Variations and path profile figure are as shown in Figure 2, for when grid Interdecadal Variations energy dissipation exponential quantity IDG_PDI and grid Interdecadal Variations path comparison and location CT_RL, its specific formula for calculation is as follows:
I D G _ PDI i t = Σ k = 1 I D T _ RL i t ( V i , t , k m ) 3 · T , i = 1 , 2 , ... , 1000 ; t = 1 , 2 , ... , 6
C T _ RL j = I D G _ PDI j / [ ( V n ‾ ) 3 · T ] , n = 1 , 2 , ... , 6
Wherein, be the grid Interdecadal Variations energy dissipation exponential quantity of i-th grid t age be the maximum wind velocity (m/s) of i-th grid within t age during kth path orientation time; time CT_RL when being the path orientation of i-th grid within t age; CT_RL jfor during grid Interdecadal Variations path comparison and location that jth potential impact graded net Interdecadal Variations energy dissipation exponential quantity IDG_PDI is corresponding time; IDG_PDI jfor jth potential impact graded net Interdecadal Variations energy dissipation exponential quantity IDG_PDI (m 3/ s 2), according to all determine; it is the mean wind speed (m/s) that the n-th strength grade tropical cyclone is corresponding, minor tick time (s) when T is the location in Tropical Cyclone Route, according to " tropical cyclone grade " (GB19201-2006), tropical cyclone comprises tropical depression (TD), tropical storm (TS), severe tropical storm (STS), typhoon (TY), violent typhoon (STY) and Super Typhoon (SuperTY) six strength grades altogether.
With the longitude and latitude stress and strain model space (0 ° of-50 ° of N, 100 ° of E-180 °) that precision is 2 ° × 2 °, 1000 sub-grids can be obtained; IDT_RL and IDG_PDI of all TCs under calculating Interdecadal Variations time scale, respectively as shown in Figure 3 and Figure 4.According to result of calculation, IDG_PDI value is basic between 0 ~ 10 × 10^10m 3/ s 2between, IDT_RL is no more than 88 times (average annual 8.8 times).According to the mean wind speed that each strength grade of TCs is corresponding, time CT_RL when calculating grid Interdecadal Variations path comparison and location corresponding to different magnitude IDG_PDI value, result (in table, the mean wind speed value of sequence number 6 correspondence gets a certain wind speed being greater than Super Typhoon critical value) as shown in table 1.
Table 1
As shown in table 1, when IDG_PDI value is more than 7 × 10^10m 3/ s 2time, TCs reaches CT_RL corresponding to typhoon grade more than 63 times, is greater than the IDT_RL of 71.6%, maximumly reaches 91 times; Show: at least may suffer 6 typhoons or 3 violent typhoons every year in single net region, even may suffer every year 1 time and above Super Typhoon, influence degree is high.When IDG_PDI value is lower than 1 × 10^10m 3/ s 2time, the average annual CT_RL that TCs reaches typhoon grade corresponding is no more than 1 time, is less than the IDT_RL of 10.2%; Show: single net region suffers 1 typhoon or 2 severe tropical storms every year at the most, or suffers 6 tropical storms at the most, and influence degree is low.Therefore, can divide the potential impact grade of TCs according to IDG_PDI value, concrete grade is in table 2.
Table 2
According to the potential impact appraisal procedure based on tropical cyclone composite strength index that the present invention proposes, as can be seen from Figure 4, at (6 ° of N-30 ° of N, 100 ° of E-140 ° of E) scope, TCs based in and above potential impact grade, coverage concentrates on the South China Sea central and north, east, Luzon of Philippine to Japanese south sea area; The scope of extra-high potential impact grade presents year by year for reduction trend, and the seventies, amount of decrease was the most remarkable.And (30 ° of N-50 ° of N, 100 ° of E-140 ° of E) scope, TCs based on low potential impact grade, and presents slightly reduction trend, and coverage presents interdecadal variability; Start to increase to some extent from the seventies in last century 40 ° of low coverages to the north of N; But after entering 21 century, start again to reduce.For China, in south China and East China, TCs based in low and low potential impact grade, in North, Northeast China area then based on low potential impact grade.
Comprehensive above-mentioned specific embodiment, the inventive method has objectively responded region TCs and has enlivened strong and weak Changing Pattern, effectively illustrates the potential impact of TCs, can be anti-of region Mitigation and provide aid.
The above example only have expressed embodiments of the present invention, but is not limitation of the present invention.

Claims (4)

1., based on a tropical cyclone potential impact appraisal procedure for composite strength index, it is characterized in that, comprise the steps:
(1) take precision as the longitude and latitude stress and strain model plane space of 2 ° × 2 °, according to existing Tropical Cyclone Route locating information, according to Interdecadal Variations time scale statistics Tropical Cyclone Route through the location time of each grid, time IDT_RL when obtaining grid Interdecadal Variations path orientation;
(2) secondary during each location in Tropical Cyclone Route in computing grid energy dissipation exponential quantity, the cumulative grid Interdecadal Variations energy dissipation exponential quantity IDG_PDI drawing single grid, as the composite strength index of reflection tropical cyclone; Wherein, the grid Interdecadal Variations energy dissipation exponential quantity of i-th grid t age is calculated concrete account form is as follows:
I D G _ PDI i t = Σ k = 1 I D T _ RL i t ( V i , t , k m ) 3 · T , i = 1 , 2 , ... , p ; t = 1 , 2 , ... , q
In formula, be the maximum wind velocity (m/s) of i-th grid within t age during kth path orientation time, when being the path orientation of i-th grid within t age time, minor tick time (s) when T is the location in Tropical Cyclone Route, p, q are positive integer;
(3) according to the mean wind speed that tropical cyclone each strength grade is corresponding, different intensity grades tropical cyclone is obtained under the grid Interdecadal Variations energy dissipation exponential quantity IDG_PDI condition of different magnitude, time CT_RL during corresponding grid Interdecadal Variations path comparison and location; Wherein, time CT_RL during the grid Interdecadal Variations path comparison and location that calculating jth potential impact graded net Interdecadal Variations energy dissipation exponential quantity IDG_PDI is corresponding j, concrete account form is as follows:
C T _ RL j = I D G _ PDI j / [ ( V n ‾ ) 3 · T ] , n = 1 , 2 , ... , m
In formula, IDG_PDI jfor the grid Interdecadal Variations energy dissipation exponential quantity IDG_PDI (m of jth potential impact grade 3/ s 2), according to all determine, be the mean wind speed (m/s) that the n-th strength grade tropical cyclone is corresponding, minor tick time (s) when T is the location in Tropical Cyclone Route, m is positive integer;
(4) time CT_RL when time IDT_RL, grid Interdecadal Variations energy dissipation exponential quantity IDG_PDI and grid Interdecadal Variations path comparison and location during grid Interdecadal Variations path orientation according to all grids of survey region, set up tropical cyclone potential impact grade, assessment tropical cyclone is to the potential impact of zones of different and Spatio-Temporal Change Characteristics thereof.
2. a kind of tropical cyclone potential impact appraisal procedure based on composite strength index according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, described step (1) midplane space is for institute's general study tropical cyclone is from the path expanded range generated to the whole lifetime process that dissipates, with this plane space of longitude and latitude stress and strain model that precision is 2 ° × 2 °, this plane space is divided into a × b sub regions, realize the compartmentalization of plane space, wherein a, b are positive integer.
3. a kind of tropical cyclone potential impact appraisal procedure based on composite strength index according to claim 1, is characterized in that, the step obtaining time CT_RL during grid Interdecadal Variations path comparison and location in described step (3) comprises:
A1. according to the immediate vicinity maximum wind velocity scope of different intensity grades tropical cyclone, get the average of its minimum value and maximal value, obtain the mean wind speed that each strength grade of tropical cyclone is corresponding
Its minimum value and maximal value is found out in the grid Interdecadal Variations energy dissipation exponential quantity IDG_PDI of each grid A2. obtained in described step (2), determine the scope of grid Interdecadal Variations energy dissipation exponential quantity IDG_PDI, divide the grid Interdecadal Variations energy dissipation exponential quantity IDG_PDI of different magnitude according to this scope;
A3. corresponding according to each strength grade tropical cyclone obtained respectively in steps A 1 and steps A 2 mean wind speed with the grid Interdecadal Variations energy dissipation exponential quantity IDG_PDI of different magnitude, when can calculate corresponding grid Interdecadal Variations path orientation time, time CT_RL when being referred to as grid Interdecadal Variations path comparison and location.
4. a kind of tropical cyclone potential impact appraisal procedure based on composite strength index according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, described step (4) calculates all grid Interdecadal Variations energy dissipation exponential quantity IDG_PDI according to step (2), by the tropical cyclone number of times of contingent typhoon and above strength grade under its different magnitude condition, and obtain respectively in step (1) and step (3) grid Interdecadal Variations path orientation time time IDT_RL and grid Interdecadal Variations path comparison and location time time CT_RL proportionate relationship, finally determine the potential impact grade of tropical cyclone, and then affect grade can assess tropical cyclone to the potential impact of zones of different and Spatio-Temporal Change Characteristics thereof according to this.
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CN106570215A (en) * 2016-10-13 2017-04-19 北京航空航天大学 Tropical cyclone dynamic simulation method based on time-varying weather data
CN111191936A (en) * 2019-12-31 2020-05-22 深圳市国家气候观象台 Typhoon, wind and rain comprehensive influence index calculation method and storage device
CN111400933A (en) * 2020-04-10 2020-07-10 中国人民解放军国防科技大学 Method for calculating optimal climate mode simulation tropical cyclone activity
CN113222349A (en) * 2021-04-19 2021-08-06 广西大学 Evaluation method for tropical cyclone influence degree of coral reef area

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Cited By (6)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN106570215A (en) * 2016-10-13 2017-04-19 北京航空航天大学 Tropical cyclone dynamic simulation method based on time-varying weather data
CN106570215B (en) * 2016-10-13 2019-08-06 北京航空航天大学 A kind of tropical cyclone dynamic emulation method based on time-varying meteorological data
CN111191936A (en) * 2019-12-31 2020-05-22 深圳市国家气候观象台 Typhoon, wind and rain comprehensive influence index calculation method and storage device
CN111400933A (en) * 2020-04-10 2020-07-10 中国人民解放军国防科技大学 Method for calculating optimal climate mode simulation tropical cyclone activity
CN113222349A (en) * 2021-04-19 2021-08-06 广西大学 Evaluation method for tropical cyclone influence degree of coral reef area
CN113222349B (en) * 2021-04-19 2023-06-30 广西大学 Evaluation method for influence degree of heated zone cyclone in coral reef area

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