CN105354786A - Carbon emission reduction based quantification method for environmental benefits of urban rail transit - Google Patents
Carbon emission reduction based quantification method for environmental benefits of urban rail transit Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention relates to a carbon emission reduction based quantification method for environmental benefits of urban rail transit. The method comprises the following steps of: 1) establishing a basic database; 2) based on a passenger flow transfer mechanism, and according to survey data of residents around the rail transit and data of a road transport bureau, acquiring a carbon emission reduction amount of the rail transit reduced in rail transit operation; 3) based on a shadow price theory, and according to data of a statistical bureau, acquiring a carbon emission shadow price of the traffic industry; 4) based on a carbon transaction price model, and according to the carbon emission shadow price and data of a carbon transaction market, acquiring an actual carbon transaction price of the traffic industry; and according to the carbon emission reduction amount and the actual carbon transaction price, acquiring an environmental benefit monetary value generated by the rail transit operation. Compared with the prior art, the quantification method has the characteristics that factors such as the carbon emission reduction, the passenger flow volume, the carbon price and the like are taken into consideration, the environmental benefits generated by line operation of the urban rail transit are quantified, and a quantified entity can serve as a reference amount of carbon tax collection of governments.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to urban rail transit technology field, especially relate to a kind of urban track traffic environmental benefit quantization method based on carbon emission reduction.
Background technology
Urban track traffic mode is large with its freight volume, speed fast, safety and comfort, punctual, advantages of environment protection, becomes city transport solution problem gradually, ensures the primary selection of urban sustainable development.Under the guide of national policy, urban rail transit in China enters the great-leap-forward development stage.By in Dec, 2014, existing 21 cities, inland of China are built up and have formally runed more than 80 urban track traffic, and total kilometrage is more than 2000km.But the huge external benefit of track traffic cannot realize internalization owing to lacking rational quantization method, and normal market mechanism can not be relied on to be converted into internal benefit.Especially environmental benefit part, is difficult to realize by estimating influence degree quantizing especially.Therefore the environmental benefit of rational monetary measurement means assessment track traffic is studied, by the contribution being conducive to full appreciation track traffic and making for urban environment, and guide rail traffic payes attention to self to the impact of environment, thus promote the sustainable development of track traffic.
As the green traffic ways of " low-carbon environment-friendly ", track traffic is mainly reflected in energy-saving and emission-reduction aspect to the environmental benefit that transportation industry is brought, and comprises and alleviates air pollution, saving fossil fuel, reduction city tropical island effect etc.In current existing achievement in research, the research specially for environmental benefit quantization method is comparatively rare, and only achievement is based on indirect means reflections such as preventative expenditure approach or assessment indicator systems mostly.Chen Fugui, to inquire into red (2010) and identify the method for Economic Benefit of City Rail Construction Investment, the environmental protect benefit part in indirect benefit is built respectively based on the Cost of Health measurement Law of willingness to pay and the metering model based on have to have no contrast method.Zhang Xue (2012) starts with from the life cycle of urban track traffic, analyze the social benefit content that urban track traffic produces in two stages, and build the quantitative target value of environmental benefit in the metering model measuring and calculating urban track traffic social benefit based on protection expenditure approach.Urban track traffic external effect is divided into the large class of communication function effect, environmental effect, economic benefits and social effect four by Shi Minglu (2009), the method combined by quantitative and qualitative analysis is described four kinds of external effect Operational Mechanisms and action path, set up urban track traffic external effect appraisement system, introduce principal component analysis (PCA) and calculate external effect comprehensive evaluation index, and carry out positive research for Beijing.Osiery (2014) proposes by passenger flow transfer and shadow price method assessment urban track traffic environment clean environmental benefit monetary value, although shadow price can reflect the true value of carbon emission amount limit, cannot access market machine-processed, practicality is not strong.
Comprehensive analysis, also there is following problem in current urban track traffic environmental benefit quantization method:
(1) although preventative expenditure approach, method such as protection expenditure approach, willingness to pay etc. are models conventional in current environment accounting, subjectivity is too strong, and easy and true value produces and departs from.
(2) existing model can not support by huge and be difficult to measure environmental benefit be converted into internal benefit by market mechanism.Especially in this monopoly public service industry of track traffic, need to create rational incentive and restraint mechanisms, impel the sustainable development of the sector.
Summary of the invention
Object of the present invention be exactly in order to overcome above-mentioned prior art exist defect and a kind of urban track traffic environmental benefit quantization method based on carbon emission reduction is provided, consider the factors such as carbon emission reduction, the volume of the flow of passengers, carbon price, environmental benefit city rail traffic route operation produced quantizes, and quantizes the benchmark amount that entity can be used as government's carbon tax collection.
Object of the present invention can be achieved through the following technical solutions:
A kind of urban track traffic environmental benefit quantization method based on carbon emission reduction comprises the following steps:
1) set up basic database, described basic database comprises track traffic nearby residents enquiry data, statistics bureau's data, Department of Communications's data and carbon transaction marketing data;
2) based on passenger flow transfer mechanism, be the carbon emission reduction amount that road traffic is saved according to track traffic nearby residents enquiry data and Department of Communications's data acquisition rail transportation operation;
3) theoretical based on shadow price, according to the carbon emission shadow price of statistics bureau's data acquisition transportation industry;
4) based on carbon transaction price model, the actual carbon transaction price of transportation industry is obtained according to carbon emission shadow price and carbon transaction marketing data;
5) according to the environmental benefit monetary value that carbon emission reduction amount and actual carbon transaction price acquisition rail transportation operation produce.
The benchmark amount that described environmental benefit monetary value is imposed as government's carbon tax.
Described carbon emission reduction amount C
railreducemeet following formula:
C
railreduce＝C
road
C
road＝M
1×β
1+M
2×β
2
, wherein, C
roadfor the carbon emission amount with road traffic under the equal passenger flow condition of track traffic, M
1for the annual consumption of gasoline, M
2for the annual consumption of diesel oil, β
1for the emission factor of gasoline, β
2for the emission factor of diesel oil.
Described track traffic nearby residents enquiry data comprises the ratio θ that car passenger flow transfers to track traffic
j, the per day trip distance s of car, the per day number of passengers Q of car
jthe ratio θ of track traffic is transferred to bus passenger flow
bus, described Department of Communications data comprise car fuel consumption per hundred kilometers
bus per day operation mileage L, public transport fuel consumption per hundred kilometers
seating capacity Q per day with public transport
bus, j is the vehicle class of car;
The annual consumption of described gasoline meets following formula:
，
The annual consumption of described diesel oil meets following formula:
，
Wherein, track traffic for passenger flow is divided into track traffic shifting flow P
d, track traffic trend passenger flow P
twith track traffic induced demand.
Described statistics bureau data comprise the carbon emission amount z of vehicle fleet size m in transportation industry, transportation industry country's fixed asset investment n, resident trips y and transportation industry;
Described carbon emission shadow price S
shademeet following formula:
，
Wherein, subscript t represents t time period, w
z, w
mz, w
nz, w
yz, w
zz, w
y, w
my, w
ny, w
yzand w
yyfor surmounting the related coefficient of logarithmic function.
Described carbon transaction marketing data comprises; Carbon transaction system regulations and monthly carbon transaction price;
Described actual carbon transaction price
meet following formula:
，
Wherein,
for the devoid of risk base price of transportation industry, with monthly carbon transaction price is relevant, β
cit is for systematic risk coefficient, relevant with carbon transaction system regulations,
for the carbon transaction anticipated price of transportation industry, value is carbon emission shadow price S
shade.
Described environmental benefit monetary value V
environmentmeet following formula:
，
Wherein, C
railreducefor carbon emission reduction amount,
for actual carbon transaction price.
Compared with prior art, the present invention has the following advantages:
1) the present invention starts with from passenger flow (comprising potential passenger flow) transfer mechanism, in conjunction with carbon emission computing formula model in GHGProtocol standard, construct the carbon emission reduction quantitative model of city rail traffic route in the operation phase, be used for describing carbon emission reduction effect in urban track traffic environmental benefit.
2) the present invention adopts directivity distance function to construct the carbon emission shadow price model of transportation industry, carbon emission shadow price, be used for describing the degree of scarcity of carbon emission amount in transportation industry (supposing to carry out carbon emission quota to limit), simultaneously using shadow price as transportation industry anticipated price, improve capital asset pricing model, calculate the actual carbon transaction price of transportation industry, reflection actual value, integrate with market mechanism, practical.
3) the present invention by actual carbon transaction price in conjunction with urban track traffic carbon emission reduction quantitative model, form the monetization method of urban track traffic environmental benefit, can calculate more accurately with current money unit is the urban track traffic environmental benefit value of base, overcome the defect that existing method subjectivity is strong, realize the monetization formula weight of environmental benefit, the entity quantized can assess urban track traffic environmental benefit intuitively, exactly, is conducive to the follow-up planning and design carrying out city according to environmental benefit.
4) the present invention is applied to aspect, urban rail transit technology field, mainly solve the monetization measurement problem of environmental benefit part in urban track traffic external effect, feasible money measuring method is sought for government subsidy benchmark amount, market mechanism is introduced assessment urban track traffic environmental benefit first, to promote transportation industry low-carbon emission reduction, for the compensation mechanism of government to urban track traffic operation enterprise provides strong data reference.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the urban track traffic environmental benefit quantization principles figure that the present invention is based on carbon emission reduction;
Fig. 2 is the process flow diagram of the urban track traffic environmental benefit quantization method that the present invention is based on carbon emission reduction.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with the drawings and specific embodiments, the present invention is described in detail.The present embodiment is implemented premised on technical solution of the present invention, give detailed embodiment and concrete operating process, but protection scope of the present invention is not limited to following embodiment.
As shown in Figure 1, thinking of the present invention is form research urban track traffic environmental benefit mechanism of action based on passenger flow, and form urban track traffic environmental benefit monetization method in conjunction with the passenger flow rate of transform and carbon transaction price model, propose the new way of urban track traffic external benefit by market mechanism internalization, for the compensation mechanism of government to urban track traffic operation enterprise provides strong data reference, wherein Urban Transportation Industry is divided into track traffic and road traffic.As shown in Figure 2, specifically comprise the following steps:
1) set up basic database, the source of basic database is mainly divided into four parts:
One is derive from track traffic nearby residents enquiry data, the i.e. Investigation of willingness of new line peripheral cell resident and resident trip survey, obtains the passenger flow rate of transform (namely urban track traffic substitutes the passenger flow proportion that other road traffic modes are born), the per day number of passengers of car, the per day trip distance of car;
Two is derive from statistics bureau's data, comprises vehicle fleet size in transportation industry, transportation industry country's fixed asset investment, resident trips, transportation industry carbon emission amount;
Three is Department of Communications's data, comprises fuel consumption per hundred kilometers (car and public transport), the average seating capacity of bus, the per day operation mileage of bus etc.;
Four is carbon transaction marketing datas, comprises carbon transaction system regulations, monthly carbon transaction price.
2) based on passenger flow (or potential passenger flow) transfer mechanism, according to the carbon emission reduction amount that track traffic nearby residents enquiry data and Department of Communications's data acquisition rail transportation operation are road traffic saving, be used for describing carbon emission reduction effect in urban track traffic environmental benefit, be specially:
First based on the greenhouse gas emission formula that GHGProtocol (greenhouse gases Accounting System) standard specifies: activity level data × emission factor=greenhouse gas emissions, the fundamental formular that in environmental benefit, carbon emission calculates can be obtained:
，
In formula, C is carbon emission total amount; I is fuel type, M
iit is the use amount of i-th kind of energy; β
ibe that the emission factor of i-th kind of energy: i can value 1 and 2, represent gasoline, diesel oil respectively; GHGProtocol provides computing method and the default value of emission factor, then the emission factor β of gasoline
1with the emission factor β of diesel oil
2be respectively 2.2 (kg/L) and 2.7 (kg/L).
Secondly, conveniently calculate, model carries out following simplification and assumption:
(1) establish car (private car, taxi) all to use gasoline as power fuel, public transport uses diesel oil as power fuel;
(2) taxi and private car are all using standard car as the standard of calculating, can merge consideration;
In urban track traffic environmental benefit, the computing formula of carbon emission reduction total amount is:
C
road＝M
1×β
1+M
2×β
2，
Wherein, the annual consumption of gasoline meets following formula:
，
The annual consumption of diesel oil meets following formula:
，
Wherein, track traffic for passenger flow is divided into track traffic shifting flow P
d, track traffic trend passenger flow P
twith track traffic induced demand, as shown in Figure 1, proportions is roughly 3: 4: 3, M
1for the annual consumption of gasoline, M
2for the annual consumption of diesel oil, represent the urban track traffic for passenger flow rate of transform with θ, represent average riding number with Q, Q
swith representing average fuel consumption per hundred kilometers, subscript j is the vehicle class of car, can value 1 and 2, and represent private car, taxi (the two can merge into standard car) respectively, subscript bus represents public transport, then θ
jfor car passenger flow transfers to the ratio of track traffic, θ
busfor bus passenger flow transfers to the ratio of track traffic, Q
jfor the per day number of passengers of car, Q
busfor the per day seating capacity of public transport, s is the per day trip distance of car, span [Isosorbide-5-Nitrae],
for car fuel consumption per hundred kilometers, L is the per day operation mileage of bus,
for public transport fuel consumption per hundred kilometers.
Because urban track traffic uses electric power as power resources, in rail transportation operation process, substantially do not produce carbon emission.Therefore last, for ordinary road traffic, the computing formula of urban track traffic carbon emission reduction amount is as follows:
C
railreduce＝C
road
The i.e. carbon emission reduction amount C of urban track traffic
roadcan with the carbon emission amount C of road traffic under equal passenger flow condition
railreducerepresent, flow process as above.
3) theoretical based on shadow price, according to the carbon emission shadow price of statistics bureau's data acquisition transportation industry, be used for describing the degree of scarcity of carbon emission amount in transportation industry (supposing to carry out carbon emission quota to limit), and reflect its expectancy, be specially:
In conjunction with the applicable cases of shadow price in other industry, for the feature of transportation industry and the thought of " sustainable development " strategy, following hypothesis is proposed:
(1) urban transportation is an activity in production, has input and output.It is unexpected that output be time, fuel oil, waste gas etc., is the carbon emission that transportation industry produces in this project; Expect that output is the facility that traffic brings, be reflected as the change of resident trips; Input is divided into fixing input and variable input, reflects respectively by communications country's fixed asset investment and these two parameters of vehicle fleet size.
(2) when constantly increasing a certain resource, its scarcity will diminish and make its shadow price vanishing.Think in resource distribution, often increasing or reduce the amount of a certain item resource, and make the variable that system optimal objective function produces, be exactly the value of this resource, but such relation is always not linear.Therefore cannot ensure not change at the degree of scarcity of resource on wider.
(3) because model parameter demarcation needs a certain amount of data, therefore the service condition of model has the 7 years basic datas comprising target year at least.
Based on above-mentioned hypothesis, if input parameter X is vehicle fleet size m and communications country's fixed asset investment n; Expect that output Y is resident trips y; It is unexpected that output Z be traffic carbon emission z.The point that will look for is when search direction vector is (1,1).Directivity distance Output function model is embodied as:
Wherein, subscript t represents the parameter value that t time period is corresponding, w
z, w
mz, w
nz, w
yz, w
zz, w
y, w
my, w
ny, w
yzand w
yyfor surmounting the related coefficient of logarithmic function.
W
z, w
mz, w
nz, w
yz, w
zz, w
y, w
my, w
ny, w
yzand w
yythe method of demarcating can adopt the mode of Maximum-likelihood estimation, and the positive and negative situation of its value is as shown in table 1 below.Its actual meaning representation is: in activity in production, this affects item to the contribution near frontal line is increase or reduce.
The positive and negative value table of table 1 coefficient
In the research of Wang Sisi, provide the solution of carbon emission shadow price, be expressed as follows:
，
Local derviation is asked to obtain above formula:
，
Formula (2) and formula (3) are substituted into formula (1) can obtain, the final expression formula of traffic carbon emission shadow price:
4) based on carbon transaction price model, obtain the actual carbon transaction price of transportation industry according to carbon emission shadow price and carbon transaction marketing data, be specially:
Carbon emission mechanism of exchange is one of generally accepted mechanism contributing to carbon emission reduction in the world.In carbon transaction mechanism, carbon emission amount is regarded as a kind of scarce resource, the transaction of monetization can be carried out.Government is by distributing certain carbon emission amount to enterprise, unit or individual, and on this basis, the enterprise that carbon emission exceeds standard, unit or individual need carry out the purchase of carbon emission amount to the remaining enterprise of carbon emission amount.Urban track traffic operation enterprise should be the quota seller on carbon transaction market, obtains the subsidy of environmental benefit by selling carbon emission reduction amount.
Therefore, the carbon transaction price model setting transportation industry is as follows:
，
Wherein,
for actual carbon transaction price,
for the devoid of risk base price of transportation industry, β
cfor systematic risk coefficient, i.e. assurable bottom price,
for the carbon transaction anticipated price of transportation industry.
β
cvalue and the degree of ripeness in domestic carbon transaction market, the degree of perfection of carbon transaction mechanism and relevant with the carbon transaction system regulations such as degree that integrate with of International Carbon trade market, its value higher explanation market is more immature, and scope is [0,1].
the value of devoid of risk base price is relevant with monthly carbon transaction (on average) price in current carbon transaction market.
value is carbon emission shadow price S
shade.
5) according to the environmental benefit monetary value that carbon emission reduction amount and actual carbon transaction price acquisition probation inner orbit traffic operation produce, the contributed value that the operation being used for describing city rail traffic route is made for transportation industry, and the benchmark amount can imposed as government's carbon tax.Environmental benefit monetary value V
environmentmeet following formula:
，
Wherein, V
environmentwith currency " unit " for unit, its value represents that the carbon emission that track traffic is Traffic Systems reduces the contribution done, for government formulate provides foundation for the subsidy amount of urban track traffic environmental benefit.
Environmental benefit monetization analysis is carried out for certain city's track traffic 1, No. 2 lines.Following environmental benefit is set and calculates case background: according to passenger flow estimation and the engineering feasibility report of two circuits, Line 1 in the mid-term day volume of the flow of passengers can reach 56.01 ten thousand people, No. 2 line day the volume of the flow of passengers can reach 47.05 ten thousand people.According to resident trip Investigation of willingness, 1, No. 2 line passenger flow in mid-term rate of transform is as shown in table 2 and table 3.
Table 21 line passenger flow rate of transform table
Table 32 line passenger flow rate of transform table
According to this city's resident trip survey result, car trip distance is 9.27km, and fuel consumption per hundred kilometers is 11L, and average passenger occupancy is 2 people; Mileage 17.13km is on average runed in public transport, and fuel consumption per hundred kilometers is 55L, and average passenger occupancy is about 42 people/car.
Environmentally carbon emission reduction amount computation model in benefit, obtains result as shown in table 4.
Table 4 carbon emission result of calculation table
Due to reference to gasoline and diesel-fuel consumption in the main energy sources consumption in 2005-2011 years of this city, have estimated traffic carbon emission amount, as shown in table 5.
Table 5 traffic carbon emission estimated statement
| Time | Gasoline consumption (t) | Diesel-fuel consumption (t) | Traffic carbon emission (t) |
| 2011 | 7762 | 48786 | 134871.2 |
| 2010 | 5648 | 49972 | 135354.9 |
| 2009 | 7098 | 44499 | 123041.5 |
| 2008 | 7419 | 45320 | 125542.3 |
| 2007 | 5206 | 37152 | 101852.7 |
| 2006 | 4228 | 36624 | 99307.92 |
| 2005 | 5246 | 33158 | 91630.99 |
Correlation parameter based on the traffic carbon emission shadow price model of directivity distance function is as shown in table 6 below.
Table 6 shadow price model parameter table
Use DEASolver software, obtain the shadow price in each year in conjunction with the final expression formula of traffic carbon emission shadow price as shown in table 7.
Table 7 each year shadow price table
| Time | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |
| Shadow price (unit) | 516.9 | 601.5 | 607.5 | 612.2 | 728. | 723.4 | 721.8 |
Current China carbon transaction price in transportation industry is formed not yet, therefore systematic risk factor beta
cbe decided to be 1, then
namely carbon transaction real price is equal with shadow price.The currency unit price of the environmental benefit that the mean value getting carbon transaction price is predicted as mid-term stage, namely 644.4 yuan/ton.
Therefore, the environmental benefit of this city's track traffic of mid-term stage 1, No. 2 lines is respectively: 48170601 yuan/year and 36782981 yuan/year, total value is 84953582 yuan/year, about 8495.36 ten thousand yuan/year.Realize the quantification of environmental benefit, the environmental benefit entity of acquisition not only can do provides foundation as government formulate for the subsidy amount of urban track traffic environmental benefit, also can as the evaluation index, design standards etc. of urban rail transit planning design.
Claims (7)
1., based on a urban track traffic environmental benefit quantization method for carbon emission reduction, it is characterized in that, comprise the following steps:
1) set up basic database, described basic database comprises track traffic nearby residents enquiry data, statistics bureau's data, Department of Communications's data and carbon transaction marketing data;
2) based on passenger flow transfer mechanism, be the carbon emission reduction amount that road traffic is saved according to track traffic nearby residents enquiry data and Department of Communications's data acquisition rail transportation operation;
3) theoretical based on shadow price, according to the carbon emission shadow price of statistics bureau's data acquisition transportation industry;
4) based on carbon transaction price model, the actual carbon transaction price of transportation industry is obtained according to carbon emission shadow price and carbon transaction marketing data;
5) according to the environmental benefit monetary value that carbon emission reduction amount and actual carbon transaction price acquisition rail transportation operation produce.
2. a kind of urban track traffic environmental benefit quantization method based on carbon emission reduction according to claim 1, is characterized in that, the benchmark amount that described environmental benefit monetary value is imposed as government's carbon tax.
3. a kind of urban track traffic environmental benefit quantization method based on carbon emission reduction according to claim 1, is characterized in that, described carbon emission reduction amount C
railreducemeet following formula:
C
railreduce＝C
road
C
road＝M
1×β
1+M
2×β
2，
Wherein, C
roadfor the carbon emission amount with road traffic under the equal passenger flow condition of track traffic, M
1for the annual consumption of gasoline, M
2for the annual consumption of diesel oil, β
1for the emission factor of gasoline, β
2for the emission factor of diesel oil.
4. a kind of track traffic environmental benefit quantization method based on carbon emission reduction according to claim 3, it is characterized in that, described track traffic nearby residents enquiry data comprises the ratio θ that car passenger flow transfers to track traffic
j, the per day trip distance s of car, the per day number of passengers Q of car
jthe ratio θ of track traffic is transferred to bus passenger flow
bus, described Department of Communications data comprise car fuel consumption per hundred kilometers
bus per day operation mileage L, public transport fuel consumption per hundred kilometers
seating capacity Q per day with public transport
bus, j is the vehicle class of car;
The annual consumption of described gasoline meets following formula:
，
The annual consumption of described diesel oil meets following formula:
，
Wherein, track traffic for passenger flow is divided into track traffic shifting flow P
d, track traffic trend passenger flow P
twith track traffic induced demand.
5. a kind of urban track traffic environmental benefit quantization method based on carbon emission reduction according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, described statistics bureau data comprise the carbon emission amount z of vehicle fleet size m in transportation industry, transportation industry country's fixed asset investment n, resident trips y and transportation industry;
Described carbon emission shadow price S
shademeet following formula:
，
Wherein, subscript t represents t time period, w
z, w
mz, w
nz, w
yz, w
zz, w
y, w
my, w
ny, w
yzand w
yyfor surmounting the related coefficient of logarithmic function.
6. a kind of urban track traffic environmental benefit quantization method based on carbon emission reduction according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, described carbon transaction marketing data comprises; Carbon transaction system regulations and monthly carbon transaction price;
Described actual carbon transaction price
meet following formula:
，
Wherein,
for the devoid of risk base price of transportation industry, with monthly carbon transaction price is relevant, β
cit is for systematic risk coefficient, relevant with carbon transaction system regulations,
for the carbon transaction anticipated price of transportation industry, value is carbon emission shadow price S
shade.
7. a kind of urban track traffic environmental benefit quantization method based on carbon emission reduction according to claim 1, is characterized in that, described environmental benefit monetary value V
environmentmeet following formula:
，
Wherein, C
railreducefor carbon emission reduction amount,
for actual carbon transaction price.
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