CN105305432B - A kind of alternating current circuit length estimation and discrimination method based on multiple regression analysis - Google Patents
A kind of alternating current circuit length estimation and discrimination method based on multiple regression analysis Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention relates to a kind of alternating current circuit length estimation based on multiple regression analysis and discrimination method, its step：Obtain the historical data of alternating current circuit；The line parameter circuit value in the range of reasonable length is deviated considerably from rejecting historical data；Reactance in line parameter circuit value, susceptance and length are classified according to voltage class and type；Obtain the maximum length of different classifications circuit and the numerical value of minimum length；Corresponding length regression estimation model is established respectively with voltage class for the model of different classifications circuit；According to the absolute value of the length regression estimation model of different classifications circuit, respectively the length largest prediction error of calculating different classifications circuit；According to maximum length and minimum length numerical value, the absolute value of length largest prediction error, circuit to be tested is recognized.The present invention can improve the operating efficiency and efficiency of planning personnel, while improve the convergence of BPA Load flow calculations, ensure the accuracy of Electric Power Network Planning data and the reliability of result of calculation, can be applied extensively in Power System Planning field.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of Power System Planning field, especially with regard to a kind of AC line based on multiple regression analysis
Road length estimation and discrimination method.
Background technology
With the rapid development of economy, power network scale is also being expanded rapidly, it is contemplated that the node to three magnificent power networks in 2015 is total
Number is up to more than 20,000, and the number of lines is up to more than 10,000 bars.Due to the limitation of information tool, so large-scale power network one
Aspect adds the possibility that planning personnel fills out wrong data, and the debugging of another aspect discharge misses data and brings great inconvenience, this
It also result in actual mechanical process, planning personnel obviously knows that there may be data fills in mistake, but suffers from and have no idea soon
Speed recognizes such large-scale data method and felt simply helpless.
BPA softwares are widely used a software during Power System Planning, have that convergence is good, calculating speed is fast
Many advantages, such as.However, planning personnel is during practical operation uses BPA softwares at this stage, because BPA softwares lack spirit
Practical man-machine interaction instrument living, often leading to BPA data can not during gathering acquisition, filling in typing, edit-modify etc.
The generation avoided is wrong or irrational data.Further, since many special data form limitations in itself be present in BPA softwares,
The different phenomenon of computational accuracy can be produced when filling in identical data by often leading to different personnel.Mistake caused by above mentioned problem
Or unreasonable data can produce considerable influence to BPA Load flow calculation convergence and result.Therefore, it is practical, flexible, efficiently real
The identification of wrong and unreasonable data and modification method have the function that important and more practical value in existing large scale electric network planning.
Generally, the ginseng such as the parameter such as the reactance of alternating current circuit and susceptance and circuit model, length, access voltage class
Number is closely related.Wherein, the Load flow calculation such as the reactance of alternating current circuit and susceptance parameter has very high positive phase with line length
Guan Xing, therefore in actual electric network planning, often the reactance using unit length and susceptance numerical value, combined circuit length, are carried out
The estimation of the Load flow calculation parameter of newly-built alternating current circuit.In addition, the alternating current circuit of general same model is under identical voltage class,
The limitation of cost, radius of electricity supply etc. is limited by, alternating current circuit length has a rational excursion, too short or long
Will be uneconomical.Therefore, the reasonability of alternating current circuit can be judged according to the excursion of alternating current circuit length.But by
In in BPA circuit length parameter be not Load flow calculation parameters necessary and BPA Load flow calculation input files in be not specified by
Input requirements, often planning personnel does not fill in or filled in and be more chaotic, so that calculating and unreasonable parameter to Tide of Planning
Identification work brings more difficulty.
The content of the invention
In view of the above-mentioned problems, it is an object of the invention to provide a kind of alternating current circuit length estimation based on multiple regression analysis
With discrimination method, this method can realize the automatic identification of wrong and unreasonable parameter in alternating current circuit, planning personnel is greatly improved
Operating efficiency and efficiency, while the convergence of BPA Load flow calculations can be improved, ensure the accuracy and meter of Electric Power Network Planning data
Calculate the reliability of result.
To achieve the above object, the present invention takes following technical scheme：A kind of alternating current circuit based on multiple regression analysis
Length is estimated and discrimination method, it is characterised in that the described method comprises the following steps：1) historical data of alternating current circuit is obtained：
Voltage class, type, length, reactance, susceptance parameter；2) circuit deviated considerably from historical data in the range of reasonable length is rejected
Parameter；3) reactance in line parameter circuit value, susceptance and length are classified according to voltage class and type；4) different classifications are obtained
The maximum length of circuit and the numerical value of minimum length, the reference quantity as fundamental length range check；5) it is directed to different classifications line
The model on road establishes corresponding length regression estimation model with voltage class respectively；6) returned according to the length of different classifications circuit
Appraising model, the absolute value of the length largest prediction error of different classifications circuit, the ginseng as length estimation error are calculated respectively
Consider；7) according to obtained in step 4) and step 6) maximum length and minimum length numerical value, length largest prediction error it is exhausted
To value, circuit to be tested is recognized, for the line parameter circuit value beyond excursion, early warning is provided, realizes in alternating current circuit
The automatic identification of mistake and unreasonable parameter.
In the step 6), the absolute value of the length largest prediction error is that the length that regression estimation model obtains is estimated
Evaluation subtracts the absolute value of the difference after actual (tube) length angle value.
In the step 7), the line identifying method to be tested is as follows：(1) the circuit class of alternating current circuit to be tested is obtained
Type, voltage class, reactance, susceptance, length parameter information；(2) by alternating current circuit parameter to be detected according to voltage class and type
Classification, and estimated according to length regression estimation model, obtain the length estimated value of alternating current circuit to be detected；(3) will be to be checked
The length estimated value of test cross Flow Line judges the length compared with the maximum length of the classification circuit and minimum length scope
Whether estimated value is in the range of the maximum length and minimum length of the classification circuit.If it was not then export unreasonable length
Warning information；If entering in next step；(4) absolute value of the length estimation error of calculating alternating current circuit to be detected, and with
The length largest prediction error of the classification circuit set is compared, and judges whether to be more than model estimation worst error in the classification
Absolute value, worst error absolute value is estimated if less than equal to model in the classification, then outlet line length parameter is filled in rationally
Information；Worst error absolute value is estimated if greater than model in the classification, then exports the warning information of unreasonable length, is completed
Identification.
For the present invention due to taking above technical scheme, it has advantages below：1st, the present invention is according to historical route type, line
The parameters such as road length, reactance, admittance, the alternating current circuit length parameter of respective type is set up using multiple regression analysis technology
Appraising model；The appraising model is then based on, regression parameter estimation is carried out to line parameter circuit value to be tested, by estimation result and the line
Road parameter comparison analysis, for the line parameter circuit value beyond certain excursion, provides early warning, so as to realize mistake in alternating current circuit
With the automatic identification of unreasonable parameter.2nd, the operating efficiency and efficiency of planning personnel can be greatly improved in the present invention, while can carry
The convergence of high BPA Load flow calculations, ensure the accuracy of Electric Power Network Planning data and the reliability of result of calculation.The present invention can be wide
Applied in ubiquitous Power System Planning field.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the overall flow schematic diagram of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is the unreasonable alternating current circuit length identification schematic flow sheet of the present invention.
Embodiment
The present invention is described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples.
As shown in figure 1, the present invention provides a kind of alternating current circuit length estimation based on multiple regression analysis and discrimination method,
Its step is as follows：
1) historical data of alternating current circuit is obtained：The parameters such as voltage class, type, length, reactance, susceptance.
2) reject obvious irrational line parameter circuit value in historical data, for example abnormal big, abnormal small etc. deviate considerably from rationally
Line parameter circuit value in length range.
3) reactance in line parameter circuit value, susceptance and length are classified according to voltage class and type.
4) maximum length of different classifications circuit and the numerical value of minimum length, the ginseng as fundamental length range check are obtained
Consider.
5) corresponding length regression estimation model is established respectively with voltage class for the model of different classifications circuit.
6) according to the length regression estimation model of different classifications circuit, the length for calculating different classifications circuit respectively is maximum pre-
Survey the absolute value of error, the reference quantity as length estimation error；Wherein, the absolute value of length largest prediction error is to return
The length estimation that appraising model obtains subtracts the absolute value of the difference after actual (tube) length angle value.
7) according to maximum length and minimum length numerical value, the length largest prediction error obtained in step 4) and step 6)
Absolute value, circuit to be tested is recognized, for the line parameter circuit value beyond excursion, provide early warning, so as to realize exchange
The automatic identification of wrong and unreasonable parameter in circuit；
Wherein, as shown in Fig. 2 line identifying method to be tested is as follows：
(1) parameter information such as the circuit types of acquisition alternating current circuit to be tested, voltage class, reactance, susceptance, length.
(2) by alternating current circuit parameter to be detected according to voltage class and classification of type, and according to length regression estimation model
Estimated, obtain the length estimated value of alternating current circuit to be detected.
(3) maximum length and minimum length scope of the length estimated value of alternating current circuit to be detected and the classification circuit are entered
Whether row compares, judge the length estimated value in the range of the maximum length and minimum length of the classification circuit.If it was not then
Export the warning information of unreasonable length；If entering in next step.
(4) calculate the absolute value of the length estimation error of alternating current circuit to be detected, and with the length of the classification circuit set
Largest prediction error is compared, judge whether be more than the classification in model estimation worst error absolute value, if less than equal to
Model estimates worst error absolute value in the classification, then outlet line length parameter fills in rational information；If greater than this point
Model estimates worst error absolute value in class, then exports the warning information of unreasonable length, completes identification.
The various embodiments described above are merely to illustrate the present invention, and structure and size, set location and the shape of each part are all can be with
It is varied from, on the basis of technical solution of the present invention, all improvement carried out according to the principle of the invention to individual part and waits
With conversion, should not exclude outside protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (2)
1. a kind of alternating current circuit length estimation and discrimination method based on multiple regression analysis, it is characterised in that methods described bag
Include following steps：
1) historical data of alternating current circuit is obtained：Voltage class, type, length, reactance, susceptance parameter；
2) line parameter circuit value deviated considerably from historical data in the range of reasonable length is rejected；
3) reactance in line parameter circuit value, susceptance and length are classified according to voltage class and type；
4) maximum length of different classifications circuit and the numerical value of minimum length, the reference as fundamental length range check are obtained
Amount；
5) corresponding length regression estimation model is established respectively with voltage class for the model of different classifications circuit；
6) according to the length regression estimation model of different classifications circuit, the length maximum predicted for calculating different classifications circuit respectively is missed
The absolute value of difference, the reference quantity as length estimation error；
7) according to obtained in step 4) and step 6) maximum length and minimum length numerical value, length largest prediction error it is absolute
Value, recognizes to circuit to be tested, for the line parameter circuit value beyond excursion, provides early warning, realizes wrong in alternating current circuit
Miss the automatic identification with unreasonable parameter；
Line identifying method to be tested is as follows：
(1) circuit types of acquisition alternating current circuit to be tested, voltage class, reactance, susceptance, length parameter information；
(2) by alternating current circuit parameter to be detected according to voltage class and classification of type, and carried out according to length regression estimation model
Estimation, obtains the length estimated value of alternating current circuit to be detected；
(3) maximum length and minimum length scope of the length estimated value of alternating current circuit to be detected and the classification circuit are compared
Compared with judging the length estimated value whether in the range of the maximum length and minimum length of the classification circuit；If it was not then output
The warning information of unreasonable length；If entering in next step；
(4) absolute value of the length estimation error of alternating current circuit to be detected is calculated, and it is maximum with the length of the classification circuit set
Prediction error is compared, and judges whether to be more than model estimation worst error absolute value in the classification, if less than equal to this point
Model estimates worst error absolute value in class, then outlet line length parameter fills in rational information；If greater than in the classification
Model estimates worst error absolute value, then exports the warning information of unreasonable length, completes identification.
2. a kind of alternating current circuit length estimation and discrimination method based on multiple regression analysis as claimed in claim 1, it is special
Sign is：In the step 6), the absolute value of the length largest prediction error is that the length that regression estimation model obtains is estimated
Evaluation subtracts the absolute value of the difference after actual (tube) length angle value.
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