CN105305420A - Premium urban power supply network electric energy quality value quantization method - Google Patents

Premium urban power supply network electric energy quality value quantization method Download PDF

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CN105305420A
CN105305420A CN201510658537.1A CN201510658537A CN105305420A CN 105305420 A CN105305420 A CN 105305420A CN 201510658537 A CN201510658537 A CN 201510658537A CN 105305420 A CN105305420 A CN 105305420A
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user
quality
power
value
premium
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李国栋
肖先勇
刘创华
刘亚丽
胡晓辉
刘云
吕金炳
王峥
陈培育
纪明
苏靖宇
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State Grid Corp of China SGCC
State Grid Tianjin Electric Power Co Ltd
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State Grid Corp of China SGCC
State Grid Tianjin Electric Power Co Ltd
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Abstract

The invention relates to a premium urban power supply network electric energy quality value quantization method. The method includes the following steps that: PPU (premium power utility) brought about by premium power is determined according to premium power indexes (PPI) and the risk aversion psychology of a user; the measurable PU (power utility) of the PPU of the user is determined; and a PPV (premium power value) model is determined according to the willingness to pay (WTP) of the user. According to the premium urban power supply network electric energy quality value quantization method of the invention, the premium power value of the user of an urban power grid who has high requirements for electric energy quality is quantified according to the utility theory and premium value theory; the premium power value of the user of the urban power grid is quantified based on the relations of the premium power indexes and the willingness to pay; the premium power utility and the willingness to pay are considered comprehensively, and loss aversion psychology and risk aversion psychology of the user are both considered, and therefore, the user of the urban power grid can more visually understand the premium power value of the urban power grid; after the premium power value is quantified, investment decision-making basis can be provided for the users of the urban power grid, power supply enterprises and government departments.

Description

High-quality urban electricity supply network electric energy quality Leakage in Value method
Technical field
The invention belongs to local transmission network technical field, especially a kind of high-quality urban electricity supply network electric energy quality Leakage in Value method.
Background technology
Along with development and the industry structure change upgrading of city size, Tianjin electric power proposes the plan of building world class local transmission network.The high-quality local transmission network of building world class, not only need traditional electrical network high reliability and fail safe, more need power supply network can meet the different demands of all types of user, for all types of user, the power consumer based on microelectronics, power electronics, digitizing technique, automatic technology is adopted to provide high-quality electric service especially more and more.The electrical energy power quality disturbance that voltage dip, short time voltage interruption etc. that these consumer networks are difficult to when normally running avoid all do not make clear stipulaties in existing fourth electrical network performance assessment criteria is very responsive, and increasing user causes tremendous economic loss because of voltage dip etc., a lot of place also creates a large amount of environmental pollution and huge social influence, therefore, building world class local transmission network, in the urgent need to inventing a kind of feasible, effective quality of power supply Leakage in Value method, and science solves technology and the investment problem of quality supply on this basis.
World-class local transmission network is not only the intellectuality of electrical network, automation and informationization, is also not only strong property and the reliability of power supply network, more needs the perceived first-class electricity consumption effectiveness of all users.And the quality of power supply that different demand and the urban distribution network of user to power supply quality provide, be the key element determining user satisfaction and perception electricity consumption effectiveness.The quality of power supply quality is not only relevant to technical indicator, also relevant with user's request, user awareness etc.
The quality of power supply of local transmission network is not only related to the satisfaction for electricity consumption both sides, also directly affects investment, the commerce and trade attraction in city.In order to building world class local transmission network, just need to provide world-class power supply quality, for this reason, need to make joint efforts for electricity consumption both sides and government department, be worth in the scientific knowledge quality of power supply, on the basis of the benefit of correlative investment, cost, propose quality of power supply quantization method, and carry out science decision on this basis.
The power quality index of the power supply quality of the world-class local transmission network not only restricted property standard such as voltage deviation, frequency departure, voltage fluctuation and flicker, three-phase imbalance, electric harmonic, instantaneous overvoltage of the existing world of demand fulfillment and national Specification, also must ensure to be in existing national and foreign standards to provide restrictive standards, but in practice again to the power quality index such as voltage dip and short time voltage interruption that user brings about great losses.Like this, the electric power of the power quality index that power quality index can be specified higher than existing utility grid code, restrictive standards etc., is called that quality power or high-quality are powered.In quality power, the implication of high-quality (premium) is, the value should brought than original electricity commodity can be brought more to increase the electric power of premium value.That is, quality power (premiumpower) is the electric power that can bring more increasing premium values to user.
Also little to the case study of world-class urban electricity supply network electric energy quality both at home and abroad, to the achievement of world-class urban electricity supply network electric energy quality Leakage in Value method, there is not been reported.Existing Method and Technology, only wait research from the susceptibility of typical susceptible equipment, voltage withstand capability, voltage dip braking measure, the aspects such as custom power technology, quality power garden, equipment immunity, engineering mimoir and standard formulation are also mainly concentrated on to the research of quality power, still blank in world-class urban distribution network quality of power supply value and quantization method thereof.
Summary of the invention
The object of the invention is to overcome the deficiencies in the prior art, a kind of high-quality urban electricity supply network electric energy quality Leakage in Value method is provided, increase premium value to the quality power of user in urban distribution network to quantize, make user understand the increasing premium value of the quality power service that local transmission network provides more intuitively.
The present invention solves its technical problem and takes following technical scheme to realize:
A kind of high-quality urban electricity supply network electric energy quality Leakage in Value method, is characterized in that comprising the following steps:
Step 1: evade psychology according to quality power index PPI and consumer's risk and determine the electricity consumption effectiveness PPU that quality power brings, concrete grammar is:
The order of severity of falling temporarily of step 1-1: with the SEMIF47 standard enforced in IT manufacturing for benchmark, IEEEStd1564-2014 definition is index, determines the value of quality power index PPI wherein, M is temporary range of decrease value, and D is the duration, M curve(D) be reference voltage amplitude that SEMIF47 curve specifies;
Step 1-2: build user awareness utility models; According to the voltage sag immunity curve of subscriber equipment, determine user awareness effectiveness c ( x ) = { ( 1 - x ) r x < 1 - &lambda; ( x - 1 ) r x > 1 , Wherein, r is risk-aversion coefficient, and value 0<r<1, λ are loss aversion coefficient, value λ >1;
Step 1-3: determine the electricity consumption effectiveness PPU that quality power brings; The loss that counting user stands, tries to achieve the contribution rate b of user awareness effectiveness in total utility by regression analysis method, determines the effectiveness PPU=bc (x) that local transmission network quality supply brings;
Step 2: that determines user power utilization effectiveness can measure portion PU; Be specially:
Step 2-1: the net profit calculating user power utilization is expected; The voltage dip loss C of user k perception sagk () is C sag(k)=N kc k, net profit desired value I (k) of user k is I (k)=C (k)-C sag(k)-C bIk (), wherein, C (k) is total revenue, C sag(k) for fall loss temporarily, C bIk () is cost of investment;
Step 2-2: determine user k normal electricity consumption effectiveness wherein, I (k) is the expectation of user's net profit, and a is the risk averse coefficient that reflection consumer's risk evades psychology;
Step 2-3: according to prospect theory and accumulation prospect theory, obtain: P U = P U ( I , x ) = N P U + P P U = I ( 1 - a ) 1 - a + b c ( x ) , ( 0 < a < 1 , b &GreaterEqual; 0 ) ;
Step 3: determine that quality power increases premium value PPV model according to user's willingness to pay WTP; By law of diminishing marginal utility, when user has willingness to pay, i.e. PU (I-INV, x 1)+ε 1>=PU (I, x 0)+ε 0, ε 0and ε 1for independent random variable and obey Weibull distribution, then customer investment probability P yesfor:
P yes＝P[PU(I-INV,x 1)+ε 1≥PU(I,x 0)+ε 0]
＝P[ε 0-ε 1≤PU(I-INV,x 1)-PU(I,x 0)]
＝P[θ≤ΔPU]
Wherein, Δ PU=PU (I-INV, x 1)-PU (I, x 0) for the variable quantity of electricity consumption effectiveness can be surveyed, θ=ε 0-ε 1for stochastic variable; Finally obtain the increasing premium value of user k wherein, INV (k) maxfor the maximum investment amount of user k.
And, in described step 1-1, with 1 year or a user-defined evaluation time section for the cycle, fallen temporarily by the virtual voltage of the virtual voltage tolerance counting user experience of SEMIF47 benchmark or subscriber equipment, thus obtain total voltage dip and distribution thereof in assessment cycle that user stands.
And in described step 1-2, the voltage sag immunity curve of user's sensitive equipment or process is that virtual voltage falls immunity curve temporarily or meets SEMIF47 curve.
And in described step 2-1, the net profit of user is expected for year's purchase expects ENB.
And described user's net profit expects the value comprising user's energy perception such as normal investment, loss and income.
Advantage of the present utility model and good effect are:
The present invention is based on utility theory and increase the theories of value that overflows the quality of power supply, urban distribution network is required that the quality power of high user increases premium value and quantizes; Relation in conjunction with quality power index and willingness to pay increases premium value to the quality power of urban distribution network user and quantizes; Consider user power utilization effectiveness and user's willingness to pay, take into account user's loss and evade psychology and risk averse psychology, make urban distribution network user understand the increasing premium value of the quality power that local transmission network provides more intuitively; Increase and overflow after Leakage in Value, can be urban distribution network user, the investment decision of power supply enterprise and government department provides foundation.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is quality power index schematic diagram;
Fig. 2 is the anti-S function curve chart of user awareness effectiveness;
Fig. 3 is that the electricity consumption effectiveness of urban subscriber k can measure portion estimation flow figure;
Fig. 4 is the relation schematic diagram of quality power index and willingness to pay;
Fig. 5 is power supply area electrical network and user's access figure;
Fig. 6 is L 1~ L 5number of times statistics falls in user temporarily;
Fig. 7 is 2007 ~ 2014 years L 5the 10kV point of incoming cables actual measurement of user is fallen temporarily;
Fig. 8 is L 5the electricity consumption effectiveness of user can measure portion result of calculation;
Fig. 9 is 2007 ~ 2014 years L 1~ L 5the increasing premium value schematic diagram of user.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, the embodiment of the present invention is further described:
A kind of high-quality urban electricity supply network electric energy quality Leakage in Value method, comprises the following steps:
Step 1, based on urban distribution network quality power index PPI (premiumpowerindex, value is set to x) and consumer's risk evades psychology, determine the electricity consumption effectiveness PPU (premiumpowerutility) that urban distribution network quality supply brings to user's (especially requiring higher user to the quality of power supply), concrete grammar is:
(1) urban distribution network quality power index PPI is determined
Adopt new and high technology for a large amount of and require high to the quality of power supply, responsive user, require that the virtual voltage of higher urban subscriber's power consumption equipment falls immunity temporarily for benchmark with the SEMIF47 standard of IT manufacturing industry compulsory execution or to the quality of power supply, the order of severity of falling temporarily of subscriber equipment access point of IEEEStd1564-2014 definition of adopting international standards is index, as shown in Figure 1, with quality power index x=1 for separation, when the voltage dip of subscriber equipment access point is more than SEMIF47 standard or the actual immunity curve of user, x>1, otherwise, x<1.
The value x of quality power index PPI is such as formula (1):
x = 1 - M 1 - M c u r v e ( D ) - - - ( 1 )
Wherein, M, D be respectively user access point temporary range of decrease value, the duration falls temporarily, the reference voltage amplitude that Mcurve (D) specifies for SEMIF47 curve or subscriber equipment reality can the temporary range of decrease values of withstand voltage.Usually, be that benchmark survey surveys voltage dip with SEMIF47, obtain the voltage dip distribution that user stands, with 1 year for the cycle is added up.According to formula (1) and IEEEStd1564-2014 determine to have power supply quality the user of particular/special requirement or requirements at the higher level stand the order of severity of voltage dip, obtain user access point quality power and refer to target value x.
(2) consider that consumer's risk evades psychology, build user awareness utility models
Effectiveness is the degree that certain commodity or labor service meet enterprise's desire or demand, relevant with the perception of user, is that user carries out being worth the foundation passing judgment on, determine purchase or investment.In local transmission network, there is particular/special requirement to the quality of power supply or require higher user, its grid electricity fee cost proportion in its product or service total cost is very little, but power supply quality is bad or the loss supplying electric disturbance to cause it of power supply access point is huge, therefore, this kind of user, to the power demands of local transmission network, not only relates to continuity and the electricity price of power supply, more relates to quality power and power disturbance.In reality, different user is because of the technique of its load nature of electricity consumed, power consumption equipment, product that electricity consumption is produced or the occupation rate of market of service that provides, and very big-difference all may be there is in the characteristic etc. of power consumption equipment, therefore, the real needs that different user is served urban distribution network quality supply are widely different, in the present invention, introduce the electricity consumption Concept of Utility of user, the need for electricity of this type of user to urban distribution network electric service is portrayed in unification.
User awareness effectiveness c (x) is by risk averse psychological impact, available anti-S function represents, as shown in Figure 2, when the voltage sag immunity of the power consumption equipment of user meets SEMIF47 standard, user is to urban distribution network quality power index x=[0, the loss that may cause time 1] is more paid close attention to, user awareness effectiveness value is in fig. 2 negative, and under the temporary range of decrease value of identical voltage, the duration of voltage dip is longer, user psychology perception can be stronger, and c (x) declines faster.In Practical Project assessment, SEMIF47 curve can fall immunity curve temporarily with virtual voltage and replace.Consider user loss evade psychology user awareness effectiveness can portray into:
c ( x ) = ( 1 - x ) r x < 1 - &lambda; ( x - 1 ) r x > 1 - - - ( 2 )
Wherein, r be user to the not good risk-aversion coefficient impacting and lose of power supply quality, value 0<r<1, λ are loss aversion coefficient, value λ >1, concrete value can investigation statistics or expertise be determined.
(3) the effectiveness PPU that urban distribution network quality supply brings to user is determined
The loss that investigation and statistics urban distribution network user cause because of electrical energy power quality disturbance is (if lack actual count, existing investigation result can be adopted), the contribution rate b of user awareness effectiveness in total utility is tried to achieve by regression analysis method, in conjunction with the user awareness effectiveness obtained, thus determine the effectiveness that quality power can bring to this user, such as formula (3):
PPU＝bc(x)(3)
Wherein, b is the contribution rate of enterprise's perception effectiveness in total utility.
Step 2, determine the part the surveyed PU (powerutility) of business electrical effectiveness.Concrete grammar is:
(1) calculate the net profit expectation that user power utilization is brought, be generally year's purchase and expect ENB (expectednetbenefit)
User awareness effectiveness is mainly lost, the loss C that the voltage dip of the power supply access point of user k perception causes sag(k) be:
C sag(k)＝N k·C k(4)
Wherein, N kfor cause lose temporarily number of times falls, C kfor each loss.
Net profit desired value I (k) of user k is:
I(k)＝C(k)-C sag(k)-C BI(k)(5)
Wherein, C (k) is total revenue, C sag(k) for fall loss temporarily, C bIk () is cost of investment.
(2) consider that consumer's risk evades psychology, determine normal electricity consumption effectiveness NPU (normalpowerutility).
Introducing risk averse psychology, the net profit in conjunction with user power utilization is expected, determines user k normal electricity consumption effectiveness NPU, such as formula (6).
N P U ( k ) = I ( k ) 1 - a 1 - a - - - ( 6 )
Wherein, the net profit that I (k) is user power utilization is expected (being generally year's purchase to expect), comprises normal investment, loss and income etc., and a is the risk averse coefficient that reflection consumer's risk evades psychology.
(3) effectiveness that the quality power that combination has obtained brings, determines that user power utilization effectiveness can measure portion PU (powerutility).
According to utility theory (utilitytheory), the electricity consumption effectiveness of user may be defined as the degree that electric power that user consumes can meet its particular demands, is that user is met a kind of Psychological Assessment of degree by the service of local transmission network quality supply.Different user is different to the subjective psychology perception of electricity consumption effectiveness, its difference shows as the willingness to pay (willingnesstopay of different user, WTP) and compensation accept wish (willingnesstoaccept, WTA) difference, and psychology is evaded in the loss that in fact different WTP and WTA reflect different user.In addition, user awareness electricity consumption effectiveness is also relevant with uncertain factors such as the competitiveness of the occupation rate of market of user, product or service, and therefore, the electricity consumption effectiveness of user is formed with immeasurability two parts by measuring:
U＝PU+ε(7)
Wherein, U is total electricity consumption effectiveness, and PU is the part surveyed of electricity consumption effectiveness, and ε, for can not survey part, has stochastic uncertainty.According to scholar's prospect theory (prospecttheory) and accumulation prospect theory (cumulativeprospecttheory), user is not only concerned about normal electricity consumption costs and benefits, is more concerned about obtainable electricity consumption effectiveness under the quality index of quality supply that local transmission network can provide.Therefore, the PU in formula (7) can be analyzed to effectiveness two parts that normal effectiveness and quality power bring:
P U = P U ( I , x ) = N P U + P P U = I ( 1 - a ) 1 - a + b c ( x ) , ( 0 < a < 1 , b &GreaterEqual; 0 ) - - - ( 8 )
To power supply quality require high or by the urban electric power user k of specific demand electricity consumption effectiveness can measure portion estimation flow as shown in Figure 3.
Step 3, increase the determination of premium value PPV (premiumpowervalue) model based on the quality power of user's willingness to pay WTP (willingnesstopay).
The WTP of user is that user is ready exchange the quality power of specific indexes for the currency arranged of some and obtain the wish expecting electricity consumption effectiveness.Obviously, WTP is the function of electricity consumption effectiveness c (x), as shown in Figure 2, and the function of c (x) to be value the be PPI of x.By law of diminishing marginal utility, when customer investment ability and the ability to ward off risks one timing, also meet production decline law to the marginal willingness to pay of quality power, the quality power demand represented with WTP is a curve tilted to the right, as shown in Figure 4.
Visible, when total electricity consumption effectiveness U that user in formula (7) expects is constant, if by required investments, the immunity improving user power utilization equipment or the temporary precipitation reducing supply terminals are put down, when PPI is from x 0be reduced to x 1time, AB is the investment that user is ready to pay for this reason.When PPI changes, also wish that total electricity consumption effectiveness U brings up to U 1, then CD is the investment that user is ready to pay for this reason.As CD >=AB, user just has willingness to pay.
When investment INV makes PPI from x 0become x 1time, the investment results of user's energy perception are that U is by U 0rise to U 1, only have U 1>=U 0time, user just has willingness to pay, that is:
PU(I-INV,x 1)+ε 1≥PU(I,x 0)+ε 0(9)
Wherein, ε 0and ε 1for independent random variable and obey Weibull distribution.
User is to the investment probability P of the quality of power supply yesfor:
P yes＝P[PU(I-INV,x 1)+ε 1≥PU(I,x 0)+ε 0]
＝P[ε 0-ε 1≤PU(I-INV,x 1)-PU(I,x 0)](10)
＝P[θ≤ΔPU]
Wherein, wherein, Δ PU=PU (I-INV, x 1)-PU (I, x 0) for the variable quantity of electricity consumption effectiveness can be surveyed, θ=ε 0-ε 1for stochastic variable, if use F θrepresent the cumulative distribution of stochastic variable θ, can obtain:
P yes＝P(θ≤ΔPU)＝F θ(ΔPU)(11)
According to existing research conclusion, the difference of two Weibull distribution stochastic variables obeys Logistic distribution, and therefore, user is ready that the probability of investing is:
P yes＝F θ(ΔPU)＝(1+e -ΔPU) -1(12)
When investment can improve electricity consumption effectiveness, user is ready that the investment amount paid depends on that investment income increases the size of premium value.Convolution (8) is to formula (12) integration, and the quality power that can obtain user k increases premium value:
P P V ( k ) = &Integral; o I N V ( k ) max ( 1 + e - &Delta; P U ( k ) ) - 1 d I N V ( k ) - - - ( 13 )
Wherein, INV (k) maxfor the maximum investment amount of user k, depend on installation, O&M cost etc., PPV (k) invests the quality power that can bring to increase premium value.
The present invention is based on utility theory and increase the theories of value that overflows to having particular/special requirement to the quality of power supply in local transmission network or requiring that the quality power of high user increases premium value and quantizes, consider that psychology is evaded in user's loss, electricity consumption effectiveness being divided into can measure portion and immeasurability part, reasonably feature the perception effectiveness of urban subscriber to quality power, in conjunction with the willingness to pay of user, quantize have the quality power of the user of particular/special requirement to increase premium value to power supply quality.
Below in certain power supply area and this power supply section thereof 5 have the user of particular/special requirement high to power supply quality, at the quality power of different times, premium value is increased to different user and same user and assesses.3, this power supply area Nei You 220kV transformer station, 10,110kV transformer station.5 enterprise L 1~ L 5all through 110kV access via telephone line utility network, it is that subscriber equipment is powered that the power distribution network be made up of cable through user inside is depressured to 10kV, and winding diagram as shown in Figure 5.2007 ~ 2014 years, 5 user 10kV buses survey voltage dip number of times statistics as shown in Figure 6.According to the investigation statistics falling loss for 2007 ~ 2014 years temporarily to these 5 users, by regression analysis method must be with the relevant parameter in electricity consumption utility function: a=0.12, b=10, r=0.88, λ=2.25.
(1) user power utilization effectiveness value analysis excessive in increasing
With L 5for example, 2007 ~ 2014 years, user side 10kV bus actual measurement voltage dip, as shown in Figure 7, measure voltage dip altogether 208 times, wherein, what cause user to lose fell 15 times temporarily.
The part surveyed of 1. electricity consumption effectiveness
According to prior art acquired results, and with user L 5actual loss weighted average, estimate obtain L 5average loss is 124.0364 ten thousand yuan/time and falls temporarily.In reality, the average loss of different user is probably different.Based on factual survey, try to achieve L by the inventive method 5electricity consumption effectiveness can measure portion, as shown in Figure 8.Visible, user awareness effectiveness is obviously greater than normal electricity consumption effectiveness, perception effectiveness electricity consumption effectiveness can proportion in measure portion very large, therefore, strong to the needs of quality power, willingness to pay is higher.
2. the increasing premium value of quality power
Suppose that user is by required investments, makes quality power index x by x 0become x 1, and investment result just in time makes the immunity of falling temporarily of user's power consumption equipment meet SEMIF47 requirement, i.e. x 1=0, according to the result of Fig. 8, obtain 2007 ~ 2014 years L by formula (13) 5quality power increase premium value, result is as table 1.
Table 12007-2014 L 5quality power increases premium value
Time 2007 2008 2009 2010
PPV(L 5)/ten thousand yuan 215.8888 195.9695 153.9847 176.0020
Time 2011 2012 2013 2014
PPV(L 5)/ten thousand yuan 223.4582 97.1733 157.7893 126.0446
(2) comparison of different situations
1. different user increases the comparison of premium value
2. save identical method with (2), try to achieve the increasing premium value of 5 users, as shown in Figure 9.Visible, the PPV of same period different user is different, and same user is also variant at the PPV of Different periods.User L 1~ L 4pPV change obviously, L 5pPV relatively steady, wherein, L 4experienced by 2012 ~ 2014 years and repeatedly seriously fall temporarily, lose larger.Result shows, the inventive method acquired results conforms to actual.
2. same enterprise Different periods increasing premium value compares with income
With L 5for example, compare by formula (14) and increase premium value and net profit, result is as table 2.
&eta; = P P V ( k ) - I ( k ) P P V ( k ) &times; 100 % - - - ( 14 )
Table 22007-2014 L 5increasing premium value compares with net profit
Time 2007 2008 2009 2010
I(L 5)/ten thousand yuan 117.3368 199.6240 117.3368 32.7624
PPV(L 5)/ten thousand yuan 215.8888 195.9695 153.9847 176.0020
η/％ 45.6494 -1.8648 23.7997 81.3852
Time 2011 2012 2013 2014
I(L 5)/ten thousand yuan 32.7624 32.7624 117.3368 32.7624
PPV(L 5)/ten thousand yuan 223.4582 97.1733 157.7893 126.0446
η/％ 85.3385 66.2846 25.6370 74.0073
Visible, except 2008, L 5increasing premium value be all greater than net profit, net profit is less, and difference is larger, and investment results are more obvious.Occur that the reason of situation in 2008 is, containing other income in this year total revenue of user's statistics.Factual survey finds, in recent years, and L 5adopt vigorous measures, such as, be configured with ups power in key control loop, transformed part sensitive equipment, these user behaviors and analysis result are very identical.
The present invention is based on utility theory and increase the theories of value that overflows and world-class local transmission network quality power increasing premium value is quantized, consider user power utilization effectiveness and user's willingness to pay, take into account user's loss and evade psychology and risk averse psychology, acquired results and reality are coincide.Further, the investment decision of quantized result to world-class local transmission network quality supply and the quality of power supply of quality power increasing premium value also has certain reference value.
It is emphasized that; embodiment of the present invention is illustrative; instead of it is determinate; therefore the present invention includes the embodiment be not limited to described in embodiment; every other execution modes drawn by those skilled in the art's technical scheme according to the present invention, belong to the scope of protection of the invention equally.

Claims (5)

1. a high-quality urban electricity supply network electric energy quality Leakage in Value method, is characterized in that comprising the following steps:
Step 1: evade psychology according to quality power index PPI and consumer's risk and determine the electricity consumption effectiveness PPU that quality power brings, concrete grammar is:
The order of severity of falling temporarily of step 1-1: with the SEMIF47 standard enforced in IT manufacturing for benchmark, IEEEStd1564-2014 definition is index, determines the value of quality power index PPI wherein, M is temporary range of decrease value, and D is the duration, M curve(D) be reference voltage amplitude that SEMIF47 curve specifies;
Step 1-2: build user awareness utility models; According to the voltage sag immunity curve of subscriber equipment, determine user awareness effectiveness c ( x ) = { ( 1 - x ) r x < 1 - &lambda; ( x - 1 ) r x > 1 , Wherein, r is risk-aversion coefficient, and value 0<r<1, λ are loss aversion coefficient, value λ >1;
Step 1-3: determine the electricity consumption effectiveness PPU that quality power brings; The loss that counting user stands, tries to achieve the contribution rate b of user awareness effectiveness in total utility by regression analysis method, determines the effectiveness PPU=bc (x) that local transmission network quality supply brings;
Step 2: that determines user power utilization effectiveness can measure portion PU; Be specially:
Step 2-1: the net profit calculating user power utilization is expected; The voltage dip loss C of user k perception sagk () is C sag(k)=N kc k, net profit desired value I (k) of user k is I (k)=C (k)-C sag(k)-C bIk (), wherein, C (k) is total revenue, C sag(k) for fall loss temporarily, C bIk () is cost of investment;
Step 2-2: determine user k normal electricity consumption effectiveness wherein, I (k) is the expectation of user's net profit, and a is the risk averse coefficient that reflection consumer's risk evades psychology;
Step 2-3: according to prospect theory and accumulation prospect theory, obtain: P U = P U ( I , x ) = N P U + P P U = I ( 1 - a ) 1 - a + b c ( x ) , ( 0 < a < 1 , b &GreaterEqual; 0 ) ;
Step 3: determine that quality power increases premium value PPV model according to user's willingness to pay WTP; By law of diminishing marginal utility, when user has willingness to pay, i.e. PU (I-INV, x 1)+ε 1>=PU (I, x 0)+ε 0, ε 0and ε 1for independent random variable and obey Weibull distribution, then customer investment probability P yesfor:
P yes＝P[PU(I-INV,x 1)+ε 1≥PU(I,x 0)+ε 0]
＝P[ε 0-ε 1≤PU(I-INV,x 1)-PU(I,x 0)]
＝P[θ≤ΔPU]
Wherein, Δ PU=PU (I-INV, x 1)-PU (I, x 0) for the variable quantity of electricity consumption effectiveness can be surveyed, θ=ε 0-ε 1for stochastic variable; Finally obtain the increasing premium value of user k wherein, INV (k) maxfor the maximum investment amount of user k.
2. high-quality urban electricity supply network electric energy quality Leakage in Value method according to claim 1, it is characterized in that: in described step 1-1, with 1 year or a user-defined evaluation time section for the cycle, fallen temporarily by the virtual voltage of the virtual voltage tolerance counting user experience of SEMIF47 benchmark or subscriber equipment, thus obtain total voltage dip and distribution thereof in assessment cycle that user stands.
3. high-quality urban electricity supply network electric energy quality Leakage in Value method according to claim 1, it is characterized in that: in described step 1-2, the voltage sag immunity curve of user's sensitive equipment or process is that virtual voltage falls immunity curve temporarily or meets SEMIF47 curve.
4. high-quality urban electricity supply network electric energy quality Leakage in Value method according to claim 1, is characterized in that: in described step 2-1, and the net profit of user is expected for year's purchase expects ENB.
5. the high-quality urban electricity supply network electric energy quality Leakage in Value method according to claim 1 or 4, is characterized in that: described user's net profit expects the value comprising user's energy perception such as normal investment, loss and income.
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