CN105303301A - Pre-severe precipitation disaster risk prediction method - Google Patents
Pre-severe precipitation disaster risk prediction method Download PDFInfo
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- CN105303301A CN105303301A CN201510658167.1A CN201510658167A CN105303301A CN 105303301 A CN105303301 A CN 105303301A CN 201510658167 A CN201510658167 A CN 201510658167A CN 105303301 A CN105303301 A CN 105303301A
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A10/00—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE at coastal zones; at river basins
- Y02A10/40—Controlling or monitoring, e.g. of flood or hurricane; Forecasting, e.g. risk assessment or mapping
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A90/00—Technologies having an indirect contribution to adaptation to climate change
- Y02A90/10—Information and communication technologies [ICT] supporting adaptation to climate change, e.g. for weather forecasting or climate simulation
Abstract
The invention discloses a pre-severe precipitation disaster risk prediction method. According to the method, a meteorological data unit used for calculating disaster-inducing factors of disasters, a monitoring data unit used for disaster-inducing factor climate background analysis, disaster process similarity fitting and disaster prediction model computation, and a comparison and analysis unit used for disaster impact assessment and early warning are adopted; the disaster-inducing factors of the disasters which are obtained through analysis on meteorological data can provide a basic monitoring direction for the monitoring data unit; the disaster-inducing factor background, historical similar disasters and disaster prediction information can be calculated through analysis of monitored data; disaster impact assessment information can be obtained through disaster prediction model computation, so that comprehensive contrastive analysis of the disasters can be realized; and accurate severe precipitation disaster early warning information can be obtained. With the pre-severe precipitation disaster risk prediction method adopted, post-disaster loss can reduced.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to risk forecast method before a kind of calamity, be specially risk forecast method before a kind of precipitation calamity.
Background technology
Under the Climatic of global warming, extreme meteorological disaster is as day by day frequent in Rainstorm Flood, arid, severe snow, high temperature heat wave, chilling injury etc., causes the massive losses of national economy and people's lives and properties, causes the extensive attention of governments at all levels and the common people.In the meteorological disaster event that these are great, the impact that precipitation causes calamity is very outstanding, and it, up to 40%, is that the most serious meteorological disaster is endangered in the whole nation that the disaster that precipitation causes causes proportion in calamity weather event in China.The direct economic loss caused due to extreme weather every year, up to exceeding 100 billion, especially causes huge loss to the production of agricultural, directly affects Chinese national economy and normally run stably.At present, China is also in the starting exploratory stage to risk assessment before the calamity of precipitation calamity, estimates to risk before precipitation calamity the evaluating system also not forming complete set maturation, especially in area, the Sichuan Province of China, with a varied topography, meteorological change is many, estimates more difficult before precipitation calamity.Meanwhile, Sichuan Province, as the large province of population, in order to ensure the property safety of the people, reduces consequential loss, and urgently we go to invent risk forecast method before a kind of precipitation calamity.
Summary of the invention
The object of the present invention is to provide risk forecast method before a kind of precipitation calamity, to solve the problem proposed in above-mentioned background technology.
For achieving the above object, the invention provides following technical scheme:
Risk forecast method before a kind of precipitation calamity, it is characterized in that, comprise for the meteorological data unit of disaster Flood inducing factors calculating with for the Monitoring Data unit of Flood inducing factors Climatic Background Analysis, the matching of Hazard processes similarity, hazard prediction model calculation and the comparative analysis unit for disaster impact evaluation early warning.
As the present invention's further technical scheme, meteorological data unit comprises:: Historical Meteorological Information, real-time meteorological data and forecast meteorological data.
As the present invention's further technical scheme, Monitoring Data unit comprises: Historical Monitoring data, Real-time Monitoring Data and forecast Monitoring Data.
As the present invention's further technical scheme, described Historical Monitoring data are connected with Flood inducing factors Climatic Background Analysis.
As the present invention's further technical scheme, described Monitoring Data unit is connected with hazard prediction model calculation with the matching of Hazard processes similarity.
As the present invention's further technical scheme, the matching of described Hazard processes similarity is connected with similar historical the statistics of geological disaster situation with history the condition of a disaster.
As the present invention's further technical scheme, described comparative analysis unit is connected with disaster impact evaluation information with Flood inducing factors Climatic, the similar the condition of a disaster of history, hazard prediction information.
The present invention is by drawing the Flood inducing factors of disaster to the analysis of meteorological data, for Monitoring Data unit provides basic monitoring direction, then Flood inducing factors background, the similar the condition of a disaster of history and hazard prediction information is calculated by the data analysis of monitoring, combine the disaster impact evaluation information drawn by disaster impact evaluation model calculation again, achieve the comparative analysis that the condition of a disaster is comprehensive, finally draw comparatively accurately precipitation disaster early-warning information, be conducive to the loss after reducing the generation of precipitation disaster.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the process flow diagram of risk forecast method before a kind of precipitation calamity of the present invention.
Embodiment
Be described in more detail below in conjunction with the technical scheme of embodiment to this patent.
Refer to Fig. 1, risk forecast method before a kind of precipitation calamity, comprise meteorological data unit, Monitoring Data unit and comparative analysis unit;
Meteorological data unit, comprise Historical Meteorological Information, real-time meteorological data and forecast meteorological data, calculate for disaster Flood inducing factors, disaster Flood inducing factors calculates and has considered history, in real time and the meteorological data of forecast three phases, drawn comparatively accurately disaster Flood inducing factors data;
Monitoring Data unit, comprise Historical Monitoring data, Real-time Monitoring Data and forecast Monitoring Data, for the matching of Hazard processes similarity and hazard prediction model calculation, history, in real time and the analytical integration of forecast three partial datas, for next step Hazard processes similarity matching and hazard prediction model calculation provide comparatively comprehensive data support, Historical Monitoring data are used for Flood inducing factors Climatic Background Analysis, for next step determines that Flood inducing factors Climatic carries out Comprehensive Comparison and provides reference background;
Comparative analysis unit, fully combine Flood inducing factors background, the similar the condition of a disaster of history, hazard prediction information and disaster impact evaluation information, carrying out disaster affects early warning, ensure that the accuracy of disaster impact evaluation early warning information;
Further, disaster Flood inducing factors calculates and is used for providing accurate data information for data monitoring module;
Flood inducing factors Climatic Background Analysis, for providing Flood inducing factors Climatic, as the reference background of Comprehensive Comparison;
History the condition of a disaster and the matching of Hazard processes similarity are used for similar historical the statistics of geological disaster situation, and then determining the similar the condition of a disaster of history, is carry out Comprehensive Comparison process part and parcel;
Hazard prediction model calculation is used for drawing hazard prediction information, for providing possible disaster information when carrying out Comprehensive Comparison, ensure that the comprehensive of precipitation calamity risk forecast;
Disaster impact evaluation model calculation is used for providing disaster impact evaluation information, and the basis of mathematical model provides necessary condition for during Comprehensive Comparison;
Finally, carry out Comprehensive Comparison to Flood inducing factors Climatic, the similar the condition of a disaster of history, hazard prediction information and disaster impact evaluation information, making disaster affects early warning, issues comparatively accurately comprehensively disaster impact evaluation early warning information.
The present invention is in concrete use procedure, the present invention is by drawing the Flood inducing factors of disaster to the analysis of meteorological data, for Monitoring Data unit provides basic monitoring direction, then Flood inducing factors background, the similar the condition of a disaster of history and hazard prediction information is calculated by the data analysis of monitoring, combine the disaster impact evaluation information drawn by disaster impact evaluation model calculation again, achieve the comparative analysis that the condition of a disaster is comprehensive, finally draw comparatively accurately precipitation disaster early-warning information, be conducive to the loss after reducing the generation of precipitation disaster.
Above the better embodiment of this patent is explained in detail, but this patent is not limited to above-mentioned embodiment, in the ken that one skilled in the relevant art possesses, various change can also be made under the prerequisite not departing from this patent aim.
Claims (7)
1. risk forecast method before a precipitation calamity, it is characterized in that, comprise for the meteorological data unit of disaster Flood inducing factors calculating with for the Monitoring Data unit of Flood inducing factors Climatic Background Analysis, the matching of Hazard processes similarity, hazard prediction model calculation and the comparative analysis unit for disaster impact evaluation early warning.
2. risk forecast method before a kind of precipitation calamity according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, described meteorological data unit comprises: Historical Meteorological Information, real-time meteorological data and forecast meteorological data.
3. risk forecast method before a kind of precipitation calamity according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, described Monitoring Data unit comprises: Historical Monitoring data, Real-time Monitoring Data and forecast Monitoring Data.
4. risk forecast method before a kind of precipitation calamity according to claim 3, it is characterized in that, described Historical Monitoring data are connected with Flood inducing factors Climatic Background Analysis.
5. risk forecast method before a kind of precipitation calamity according to claim 3, it is characterized in that, described Monitoring Data unit is connected with hazard prediction model calculation with the matching of Hazard processes similarity.
6. risk forecast method before a kind of precipitation calamity according to claim 5, it is characterized in that, the matching of described Hazard processes similarity is connected with similar historical the statistics of geological disaster situation with history the condition of a disaster.
7. risk forecast method before a kind of precipitation calamity according to claim 1, is characterized in that, described comparative analysis unit is connected with disaster impact evaluation information with Flood inducing factors Climatic, the similar the condition of a disaster of history, hazard prediction information.
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| CN201510658167.1A CN105303301A (en) | 2015-10-14 | 2015-10-14 | Pre-severe precipitation disaster risk prediction method |
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| CN201510658167.1A CN105303301A (en) | 2015-10-14 | 2015-10-14 | Pre-severe precipitation disaster risk prediction method |
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Cited By (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN108595658A (en) * | 2018-04-28 | 2018-09-28 | 尚谷科技（天津）有限公司 | A kind of weather knowledge base detection method based on multimedia content |
| CN109426906A (en) * | 2017-08-29 | 2019-03-05 | 北京思湃德信息技术有限公司 | A kind of heavy rain Hazard Evaluation for Weather Disaster system |
| CN115640967A (en) * | 2022-10-14 | 2023-01-24 | 国网浙江省电力有限公司嘉兴供电公司 | Power grid resource elastic allocation method based on extreme rainfall disaster estimation |
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| CN102646219A (en) * | 2012-02-27 | 2012-08-22 | 兰州大学 | Method for pre-warning snow disaster in pasturing area |
| CN102867217A (en) * | 2012-08-28 | 2013-01-09 | 南京信息工程大学 | Projection pursuit-based risk evaluation method for meteorological disasters of facility agriculture |
| JP2014203276A (en) * | 2013-04-05 | 2014-10-27 | 株式会社日立製作所 | Supply system and supply method for gas and electricity |
| CN104376510A (en) * | 2014-12-05 | 2015-02-25 | 国家电网公司 | Method of predicting and accessing level of wildfire-caused trip risk in power transmission lines |
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2015
- 2015-10-14 CN CN201510658167.1A patent/CN105303301A/en active Pending
Patent Citations (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN102646219A (en) * | 2012-02-27 | 2012-08-22 | 兰州大学 | Method for pre-warning snow disaster in pasturing area |
| CN102867217A (en) * | 2012-08-28 | 2013-01-09 | 南京信息工程大学 | Projection pursuit-based risk evaluation method for meteorological disasters of facility agriculture |
| JP2014203276A (en) * | 2013-04-05 | 2014-10-27 | 株式会社日立製作所 | Supply system and supply method for gas and electricity |
| CN104376510A (en) * | 2014-12-05 | 2015-02-25 | 国家电网公司 | Method of predicting and accessing level of wildfire-caused trip risk in power transmission lines |
Cited By (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN109426906A (en) * | 2017-08-29 | 2019-03-05 | 北京思湃德信息技术有限公司 | A kind of heavy rain Hazard Evaluation for Weather Disaster system |
| CN108595658A (en) * | 2018-04-28 | 2018-09-28 | 尚谷科技（天津）有限公司 | A kind of weather knowledge base detection method based on multimedia content |
| CN115640967A (en) * | 2022-10-14 | 2023-01-24 | 国网浙江省电力有限公司嘉兴供电公司 | Power grid resource elastic allocation method based on extreme rainfall disaster estimation |
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