CN105183927B - A kind of Multi satellite separation parameter optimization method - Google Patents
A kind of Multi satellite separation parameter optimization method Download PDFInfo
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- CN105183927B CN105183927B CN201510236518.XA CN201510236518A CN105183927B CN 105183927 B CN105183927 B CN 105183927B CN 201510236518 A CN201510236518 A CN 201510236518A CN 105183927 B CN105183927 B CN 105183927B
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Abstract
The invention provides a kind of Multi satellite separation parameter optimization method, including：Step 1, required to determine equivalent target function and parameter sets according to Multi satellite separation main target；Step 2, sensitivity analysis is carried out to the parameter sets according to the object function, obtains a key parameter set being made up of key parameter；Step 3, the optimal solution of the key parameter set is sought according to the object function；Step 4, track l-G simulation test, easy conflicting flight body combination is screened；Step 5, apply the interference of particular probability distribution to the key parameter set optimal solution, carry out Monte Carlo simulation experiment, calculate in the easily conflicting flight body combination warning and the collision probability of each satellite, if warning or collision probability are more than or equal to respective preset maximum value, return to step 3 after the weight coefficient in the object function is then adjusted, if warning and collision probability are less than respective preset maximum value, exports the warning and collision probability and corresponding optimal key parameter set.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of parameter optimization method, in particular it relates to a kind of Multi satellite separation parameter optimization method.
Background technology
From the point of view of satellite constellation rapid deployment, saving launch cost, it need to be launched in a manner of several satellite in a rocket.Mesh
Before, the space flight entity such as America and Europe, Russia is when implementing several satellite in a rocket transmitting, often by possessing above multiple ignition function
Level.Under normal circumstances, satellite deployment time is longer, requires higher to TT ＆ c arc.By contrast, the current carrier rocket in China
Shortage possesses level above multiple ignition function, and TT ＆ c arc is restricted, and (typically takes 3 times to defend in a short time after satellite and the rocket separation
The star orbital period), satellite can not the flying body such as vehicle out-driving, multi-satellite, load cabin, final vehicle speed relative to each other immediately
Smaller, relative distance is in the change in oscillation trend of " remote → close → remote ".
At the design of satellite and the rocket separable programming (including the content such as each action sequence, posture adjustment angle, separating force selection), typically need
The numerical simulation of 3 times of satellite orbit periods is carried out, can just obtain flying body minimum relative distance closer to each other, and the distance
With design parameter and non-linear relation.If the reason for designer is to flying body relative distance variation tendency and being set with specific
Count the inner link understanding of variable not enough fully, separable programming design it is unreasonable, it is slow to cause to design analysis process, and part
Relative distance between flying body can not be pulled open quickly, or even the danger to collide be present.Gathered out and " compared by the way of tentative calculation
It is appropriate " design, will cause Multi satellite separation programming it is not reasonable it is quick, easily there is situation about attending to one thing and lose sight of another.
To verify design short term security, interference analysis is carried out frequently with quadratic sum root method：By major parameter just
Negative interference item substitutes into emulation item by item, is contrasted with nominal case relative distance, it is inclined to obtain relative distance corresponding to each positive and negative distracter
Difference, then deviation is separated (if the deviation jack per line corresponding to the positive negative interference of similar distracter, takes absolute value as positive and negative
The greater), then calculating quadratic sum opens radical sign and obtains statistical value.Consider other interference and uncertain deviation, take certain safety
After coefficient, final relative distance deviation range is obtained.If flying body number is more, disturbing factor increases, and is analyzed using this method, then
The deviation range drawn is larger, relatively guards, or even the situation that minus deviation exceedes nominal value occurs.
Multi satellite separation design is carried out using above-mentioned conventional design and analysis method, is difficult to obtain optimal value, efficiency is low, and sets
It is overly conservative to count result, is only applicable to that flying body number is few, the larger situation of relative distance between flying body under nominal case.It is right
It is more prominent in the more situation of number of satellite, conventional design, analysis method the shortcomings that.Therefore, it is necessary to take a kind of more high
Effect, believable design and analysis method.
The content of the invention
For in the prior art the defects of, it is an object of the invention to provide a kind of Multi satellite separation parameter optimization method.
According to a kind of Multi satellite separation parameter optimization method provided by the invention, including：
Step 1, required to determine equivalent target function and parameter sets, the parameter sets according to Multi satellite separation main target
In include several design parameters, the minimum relative distance that the object function can reflect between n flying bodies to be optimized indirectly
Size and overall security；
Step 2, sensitivity analysis is carried out to the parameter sets according to the object function, obtains one by key parameter
The key parameter set of composition, the key parameter are the design parameter that susceptibility is more than predetermined threshold value；
Step 3, the optimal solution of the key parameter set is calculated according to the object function；
Step 4, according to the key parameter set include the track l-G simulation test of all flying bodies, flown according to all
Minimum range simulation result when row body is closer to each other filters out easy conflicting flight body combination, in the easily conflicting flight body combination
Certain flying body is approached in satellite to its warning bounds；
Step 5, apply the interference of particular probability distribution to the key parameter set optimal solution, carry out Monte Carlo simulation
Experiment, warning and the collision probability of each satellite are calculated in the easily conflicting flight body combination,
If the warning or collision probability are more than or equal to respective preset maximum value, adjust in the object function
Return to step 3 after weight coefficient,
If the warning and collision probability are less than respective preset maximum value, the warning and collision probability and right are exported
The key parameter set optimal solution answered.
As a kind of prioritization scheme, the main target call of Multi satellite separation described in the step 1 is：Each satellite transit
In journey it is closer to each other between the flying body beyond itself during minimum range be more than default collision boundary, or satellite
Warning and collision probability are less than respective preset maximum value；
To consider the security of multiple flying bodies especially multi-satellite, by the n flying bodies to be optimized two-by-two
Combination obtainsIndividual semi-major axis deviation, shouldIndividual semi-major axis absolute value of the bias weighting sum as the equivalent target function, its
In the combination of two weighting coefficient initial values containing satellite can be set to 1, be not required to be concerned about flying body combination weight coefficient can set
For 0.
As a kind of prioritization scheme, the design parameter in the parameter sets includes separation force vectorWith separation attitude angleψcx, γcx, the satellite and the rocket separation moment, final vehicle residual propellant drain valve start-up time and corresponding discharge attitude angle.
As a kind of prioritization scheme, the key parameter mainly includes separation force vectorWith separation attitude angleψcx,
γcx。
As a kind of prioritization scheme, sensitivity analysis step described in step 2：By being taken the photograph item by item to the parameter sets
Dynamic, the partial derivative of each design parameter of approximate calculation equivalent target function pair, as the susceptibility, the susceptibility is more than described
The parameter of predetermined threshold value is the key parameter.
As a kind of prioritization scheme, return to step 3 is further after the adjustment object function：For in step 4
Minimum range be less than or equal to collision boundary easy conflicting flight body combine, or in step 5 warning or collision probability be more than or
Easy conflicting flight body equal to respective preset maximum value combines, and will be combined in the object function with the easily conflicting flight body
Related weighing coefficient obtains new object function after amplifying according to preset rules, with the new object function return to step 3.
As a kind of prioritization scheme, the step 3 is further to obtain the key parameter set most by optimizing algorithm
Excellent solution causes the object function to obtain maximum.
As a kind of prioritization scheme, the step 3 also includes：Constraints, institute are set to the multi-parameters optimization problem
The discharge distance and discharge angle for stating the residual propellant that constraints is final vehicle all need to meet preset range.
As a kind of prioritization scheme, the step 5 is further：Key parameter set is applied with the key parameter collection
Conjunction optimal solution is mathematical expectation, meets the random disturbances of specific distribution probability, carries out Monte Carlo simulation experiment, and calculate institute
State in the combination of easy conflicting flight body warning and the collision probability of each satellite.
The present invention, by equivalent target function and sensitivity analysis is determined, is more easy to establish direct target by first and second step
It is required that the definite relation between each design parameter, is also convenient for the optimal solution that the 3rd step is quickly found out key parameter set.Pass through
The screening that 4th step combines to the easy conflicting flight body that needs are paid close attention to, alleviate the workload of subsequent interference analysis.5th
Step interference analysis abandons the quadratic sum root method for only considering limiting case, and the satellite drawn with Monte Carlo method is guarded against and collision is general
Rate distribution more meets truth, and corresponding warning and collision probability are easy to that in-orbit security makees quantitative description in short term to satellite.
The present invention can cause satellite short term security be improved significantly.
Brief description of the drawings
The detailed description made by reading with reference to the following drawings to non-limiting example, further feature of the invention,
Objects and advantages will become more apparent upon：
Fig. 1 is a kind of Multi satellite separation parameter optimization method schematic flow sheet in alternative embodiment.
Fig. 2 is flying body orbital period difference and orbital phase difference relation schematic diagram.
Fig. 3 is the relative distance variation tendency schematic diagram in alternative embodiment.
Fig. 4 is using the experimental result contrast before and after the present invention.
Embodiment
The present invention is described in detail in a manner of specific embodiment below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.Following examples will be helpful to
Those skilled in the art further understands the present invention, but the invention is not limited in any way.It should be pointed out that to ability
For the those of ordinary skill in domain, without departing from the inventive concept of the premise, various modifications and improvements can be made.These
Belong to protection scope of the present invention.
A kind of Multi satellite separation parameter optimization method, it is characterised in that including
Step 1, required to determine equivalent target function and parameter sets, the parameter sets according to Multi satellite separation main target
In include several design parameters, the minimum relative distance that the object function can reflect between n flying bodies to be optimized indirectly
Size and overall security；
Step 2, sensitivity analysis is carried out to the parameter sets according to the object function, obtains one by key parameter
The key parameter set of composition, the key parameter are the design parameter that susceptibility is more than predetermined threshold value；
Step 3, the optimal solution of the key parameter set is calculated according to the object function；
Step 4, according to the key parameter set include the track l-G simulation test of all flying bodies, flown according to all
Minimum range simulation result when row body is closer to each other filters out easy conflicting flight body combination, in the easily conflicting flight body combination
Certain flying body is approached in satellite to its warning bounds；
Step 5, apply the interference of particular probability distribution to the key parameter set optimal solution, carry out Monte Carlo simulation
Experiment, warning and the collision probability of each satellite are calculated in the easily conflicting flight body combination,
If the warning or collision probability are more than or equal to respective preset maximum value, adjust in the object function
Return to step 3 after weight coefficient,
If the warning and collision probability are less than respective preset maximum value, the warning and collision probability and right are exported
The key parameter set optimal solution answered.
In flying body running, constantly change with the distance of another flying body, and minimum relative distance and most be present
Big distance.In the present embodiment in order to avoid two flying bodies collide, minimum relative distance is solely focused on.It is two phases to guard against border
Mutually close flying body does not produce interactional minimum range.Collision boundary is that two flying bodies close to each other produce collision
Ultimate range.Warning and collision probability represent other flying bodies and approach certain flying body to its warning border and collision boundary respectively
In the range of probability.
Step 1, equivalent target function and parameter sets are determined according to Multi satellite separation target call.Launch for several satellite in a rocket
State, after satellite and the rocket separation, the multiple flying bodies that can be formed including satellite, final vehicle and load cabin.Due to rocket end
Relative velocity of the level when implementing satellite and the rocket separation is smaller, and satellite (typically takes 3 times of satellite orbits in a short time after satellite and the rocket separation
Cycle) typically have little time to carry out orbit maneuver, therefore, as shown in Fig. 2 the orbital period is close between other flying bodies and satellite,
Often fly once circle formed orbital phase difference very little, so as to cause toward each other it is in small distance, and into as shown in Figure 3 " it is remote →
Close to → it is remote " vibration trend." minimum relative distance " when other flying bodies are again close to satellite turns into naturally to be needed to close
The most direct most important aim parameter of note.
Spacecraft typically has anticollision evasion tactics during in orbit.Approximately as：When ground monitoring system forecasts to supervise
, will be to flying when controlling the relative distance of other flying bodies such as space junk and specific spacecraft and being less than particular value (warning border)
The track of body and spacecraft carries out high precision computation forecast and looked over one's shoulder.Once it was found that relative distance is less than smaller particular value
When (collision boundary), spacecraft will be evaded as orbit maneuver.Therefore Chang Xuan " warning, collision boundary " is as to " minimum phase
Adjust the distance " constraint requirements.If separation process can not complete collision free, also " warning, collision probability " can be used as target
Amount, and the probability to guarding against, colliding proposes corresponding constraint requirements." warning, collision boundary " and monitoring system survey rail forecast precision,
The factors such as flying body envelope size, maneuverability are related, it usually needs by being calculated.Therefore, set in development Multi satellite separation
Timing, it should be understood that following main target requirement：
Alternatively, the main target call of Multi satellite separation described in the step 1 is：During each satellite transit with itself
Between flying body in addition it is closer to each other during minimum range be more than default collision boundary, or the warning and collision of satellite
Probability is less than respective preset maximum value；
To consider the security of multiple flying bodies especially multi-satellite, by the n flying bodies to be optimized two-by-two
Combination obtainsIndividual semi-major axis deviation, shouldIndividual semi-major axis absolute value of the bias weighting sum as the equivalent target function, its
In the combination of two weighting coefficient initial values containing satellite can be set to 1, be not required to be concerned about flying body combination weight coefficient can set
For 0.
When clearly including warning, the collision boundary that the particular flight body of satellite combines, should be flown according to satellite and another
The envelope size of row body obtains respective equivalent redius and summed.From engineering design and conservative angle is facilitated, clearly alert
, should be by the orbit computation essence of model used in the position uncertainty index of flying body, satellite separate design when guarding against with collision boundary
Degree is directly added into wherein.In addition, the factor such as satellite and the rocket separate mode and cost of implementation and satellite maneuverability, specific evasion tactics
Influence to minimum relative distance is embodied in by safety coefficient.
It can be seen from track relevant knowledge, there is substantial connection the flying body orbital period with its semi-major axis：
From formula (1), if the orbital period of each flying body is close, semi-major axis is also close.If each fly need to be pulled open as early as possible
Row body phase is adjusted the distance, then should try one's best the semi-major axis deviation increased between each flying body.
Alternatively, to consider the security of multiple flying bodies especially multi-satellite, by the n flights to be optimized
Body combination of two obtainsIndividual semi-major axis deviation, shouldIndividual semi-major axis absolute value of the bias weighting sum is the equivalent target letter
Number.Wherein, 1 can be set to by being related to the weighting coefficient initial values of satellite, and the weight coefficient for the flying body combination for being not required to be concerned about can be set
For 0.
Step 2, sensitivity analysis is carried out to the parameter sets according to the object function, obtains one by key parameter
The key parameter set of composition.According to Gaussian-type orbital perturbed motion equation, semi-major axis has following relation with perturbation acceleration：
Wherein,
Represent orbit averaging motion angular speed；
E represents eccentricity, and f represents track true anomaly；
U represents tangential component of the perturbation acceleration along flying speed.
When carrying out satellite and the rocket separation, to produce suitable semi-major axis deviation delta a, final vehicle can only be adjusted and implement the satellite and the rocket point
From when acceleration.According to separate acceleration vector with separating force vector and quality correlation, convolution (2) can
Know, to make full use of influence of the separating force to semi-major axis, separate acceleration vector caused by separating force and flying speed need to be sweared
Amount is conllinear.If separate acceleration is identical with flying speed direction, semi-major axis rate of change is just, on the contrary is negative.It can specifically simplify
Force vector is separated for adjustmentWith separation attitude angleψcx, γcx.When separating force is along rocket body axial direction, γ can be neglectedcxTune
It is whole.Therefore when screening key Design variable, the above-mentioned design parameter for being related to separate acceleration should be paid close attention to.
Alternatively, the parameter in the parameter sets includes separation force vectorWith separation attitude angleψcx, γcx, rocket
Separate moment, final vehicle residual propellant drain valve start-up time and corresponding discharge attitude angle.
Alternatively, the key parameters mainly include separation force vectorWith separation attitude angleψcx, γcx。
In Multi satellite separation program optimization design process, multinomial design parameter need to be carried out quick according to equivalent target function
Sensitivity analysis, and in this, as key parameter screening according to improve design efficiency.Sensitivity analysis specific method is as follows：
Alternatively, sensitivity analysis step described in step 2：By being perturbed item by item to the parameter sets, approximation meter
The partial derivative of each parameter of equivalent target function pair is calculated as susceptibility, the parameter that the susceptibility is more than the predetermined threshold value is institute
State key parameter.Wherein, separating force size is typically perturbed by 10%, and angle is typically perturbed by 5 °.To above-mentioned multinomial
The absolute value of partial derivative is ranked up, and is entered according to the principle of " absolute value of partial derivative is bigger, and corresponding design parameter is more crucial "
Row screening, when design parameter is more, predeterminable suitable threshold value is screened.To improve sensitivity analysis efficiency, wherein often
The secondary numerical simulation termination time is arranged to separate sequential finish time, is not required to carry out the calculating up to 3 times of satellite orbit periods.
Step 3, the optimal solution of the key parameter set is calculated according to the object function.Due to consider taking into account simultaneously
The flight safety of multi-satellite, therefore the equivalent target function for being determined in step 1, call suitable optimized algorithm to step
The key Design variable of 2 screenings optimizes adjustment.To improve numerical optimization efficiency, numerical simulation every time therein can be terminated
Time is arranged to separate sequential finish time, is not required to carry out the calculating up to 3 times of satellite orbit periods.
Alternatively, return to step 3 is further after the adjustment object function weight coefficient：For in step 4 most
The easy conflicting flight body that small distance is less than or equal to collision distance combines, or warning or collision probability are more than or waited in step 5
Combined in the easy conflicting flight body of respective preset maximum value, phase will be combined with the easily conflicting flight body in the object function
Close after weight coefficient amplifies according to preset rules and obtain new object function, with the new object function return to step 3.It is described
Preset rules can be to add 1 or increase default value.
Alternatively, the step 3 is further to obtain the key parameter set optimal solution institute by optimizing algorithm
State object function and obtain maximum.
In addition, during the satellite and the rocket separate, final vehicle is when implementing residual propellant discharge, it is necessary to avoid the dirt to satellite
Dye.Therefore, (plume injection direction connects " the discharge distance " and " discharge angles " of relative satellite with the satellite and the rocket barycenter when final vehicle is discharged
The angle of line) also need to take into account.Satellite sinks to organic matter during discharge distance and the constraints of discharge angles should separate according to the satellite and the rocket
The accumulated amount upper limit and the analysis of experiments data of final vehicle discharge plume determine.Correlation computations model and recommend discharge distance,
Discharge angle is recommended to refer to the standard of final vehicle discharge design.Above-mentioned constraint requirements can be embodied by penalty function method.
Alternatively, the step 3 also includes：Constraints, the constraints are set to the multi-parameters optimization problem
Discharge distance and discharge angle for the residual propellant of final vehicle all should meet preset range.
Step 4, according to the key parameter set include the track l-G simulation test of all flying bodies, flown according to all
Minimum range simulation result when row body is closer to each other filters out easy conflicting flight body combination, in the easily conflicting flight body combination
Certain flying body is approached in satellite to its warning bounds.The safety of satellite is concerned only with the present embodiment, therefore only considers and counts
Calculate the situation of the flying body of close satellite.Do not consider to disturb, a Post Orbit emulation carried out according to satellite and the rocket separate design scheme,
For clear and definite relative distance variation tendency, the emulation termination time typically takes 3 times of satellite orbit periods.According to simulation result, fly to each
" the minimum relative distance " of row body combination is ranked up, and selection is all " to guard against side containing satellite and minimum relative distance no more than its
The flying body combination on boundary " is combined as easy conflicting flight body, if being all higher than " warning border ", selects a pair of nearest flying bodies
Combination.
Step 5, apply the interference of particular probability distribution to the key parameter set optimal solution, carry out Monte Carlo simulation
Experiment, calculate in the minimum distance flying body group warning and the collision probability of each satellite.For that need to pay close attention to, deeply divide
The easy conflicting flight body combination of analysis, applies optimal with key parameter set in step 3 to the key parameter set in separable programming
Solve for mathematic expectaion, meet particular probability distribution random disturbances, carry out Monte Carlo numerical simulation tests, draw flying body group
The probability density characteristicses of " minimum relative distance " are closed, and calculate the warning of each satellite and collision probability (ignores this transmitting
Other space junks beyond task), and the target call for combining " warning, collision probability " judges whether that returning to step 3 continues
Circulation.
Alternatively, the step 5 is further：To key parameter set apply using the key parameter set optimal solution as
Mathematical expectation, the random disturbances for meeting specific distribution probability, Monte Carlo simulation experiment is carried out, and calculate the easily collision and fly
The warning of each satellite and collision probability in the combination of row body.
The separate design of certain 02 group of type constellation satellite employs correlation method of the present invention, compared to 01 group satellite, most dangerous to fly
The combination of row body is again close to minimum range and its variation tendency has and significantly improved, and refers to Fig. 4.
The specific embodiment of the present invention is described above.It is to be appreciated that the invention is not limited in above-mentioned
Particular implementation, those skilled in the art can make various deformations or amendments within the scope of the claims, this not shadow
Ring the substantive content of the present invention.
Claims (9)
- A kind of 1. Multi satellite separation parameter optimization method, it is characterised in that includingStep 1, equivalent target function and parameter sets are determined according to the target call of Multi satellite separation, included in the parameter sets Several design parameters, the size for the minimum relative distance that the object function can reflect between n flying bodies to be optimized indirectly With the security of entirety；Step 2, sensitivity analysis is carried out to the parameter sets according to the object function, obtains one and be made up of key parameter Key parameter set, the key parameter be susceptibility be more than predetermined threshold value the design parameter；Step 3, the optimal solution of the key parameter set is calculated according to the object function；Step 4, according to the key parameter set include the track l-G simulation test of all flying bodies, according to all flying bodies Minimum range simulation result when closer to each other filters out easy conflicting flight body combination, and certain in the easily conflicting flight body combination flies Row body is approached in satellite to its warning bounds；Step 5, apply the interference of particular probability distribution to the key parameter set optimal solution, carry out Monte Carlo simulation examination Test, calculate in the easily conflicting flight body combination warning and the collision probability of each satellite,If the warning or collision probability are more than or equal to respective preset maximum value, the weighting in the object function is adjusted Return to step 3 after coefficient,If the warning and collision probability are less than respective preset maximum value, the warning and collision probability and corresponding are exported The key parameter set optimal solution.
- 2. a kind of Multi satellite separation parameter optimization method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that described in the step 1 The target call of Multi satellite separation is：During each satellite transit it is closer to each other between the flying body beyond itself during most Small distance is more than default collision boundary, or the warning of satellite and collision probability are less than respective preset maximum value；To consider the security of multiple flying bodies, the n flying body combination of two to be optimized are obtainedIndividual semi-major axis Deviation, shouldIndividual semi-major axis absolute value of the bias weights sum as the equivalent target function, wherein the combination of two containing satellite Weighting coefficient initial values can be set to 1, and the weight coefficient for the flying body combination for being not required to be concerned about can be set to 0.
- 3. a kind of Multi satellite separation parameter optimization method according to claim 2, it is characterised in that in the parameter sets Design parameter includes separation force vectorWith separation attitude angleψcx, γcx, the satellite and the rocket separation moment, final vehicle residual propellant Drain valve start-up time and corresponding discharge attitude angle.
- 4. a kind of Multi satellite separation parameter optimization method according to claim 3, it is characterised in that the key parameter includes Separate force vectorWith separation attitude angleψcx, γcx。
- A kind of 5. Multi satellite separation parameter optimization method according to claim 2, it is characterised in that susceptibility described in step 2 Analytical procedure：By being perturbed item by item to the parameter sets, each design parameter of approximate calculation equivalent target function pair it is inclined For derivative as susceptibility, the parameter that the susceptibility is more than the predetermined threshold value is the key parameter.
- A kind of 6. Multi satellite separation parameter optimization method according to claim 2, it is characterised in that the adjustment target Return to step 3 is further after function：It is less than or equal to the easy conflicting flight body group of collision boundary for minimum range in step 4 Close, or warning or collision probability are more than or equal to the easy conflicting flight body combination of respective preset maximum value in step 5, by institute State to combine after related weighing coefficient amplifies according to preset rules with the easily conflicting flight body in object function and obtain new target Function, with the new object function return to step 3.
- 7. a kind of Multi satellite separation parameter optimization method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that the step 3 is further To obtain the key parameter set optimal solution object function by optimizing algorithm and obtaining maximum.
- 8. a kind of Multi satellite separation parameter optimization method according to claim 7, it is characterised in that the step 3 also includes： Constraints, discharge distance and discharge of the constraints for the residual propellant of final vehicle are set to the optimizing algorithm Angle all needs to meet preset range.
- 9. a kind of Multi satellite separation parameter optimization method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that the step 5 is further For：Key parameter set applied using the key parameter set optimal solution as mathematical expectation, meet specific distribution probability Random disturbances, Monte Carlo simulation experiment is carried out, and calculate in the easily conflicting flight body combination warning of each satellite and touch Hit probability.
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