The content of the invention
In view of the deficienciess of the prior art, it is an object of the invention to provide a kind of electricity based on multimode transductive reasoning
Subsystem thermal reliability is analyzed and Forecasting Methodology, the method effectively can analyze and calculate the thermally-stabilised availability of electronic system with
In the thermally relieved degree and thermal failure probability of different working times, and hot mean down time.It solves electronic system heat
The key technology of fail-safe analysis, design and prediction.
To achieve the above object, the invention provides following technical scheme:A kind of electronics based on multimode transductive reasoning
System thermal reliability is analyzed and Forecasting Methodology, is comprised the following steps:
(1) according to 26S Proteasome Structure and Function feature, electronic system is divided into four modules, they are energy conversion respectively and protected
Module, electronic control module, link block, signal transmission and modular converter, each module regard that one can debug and tie up as
Repair can adjusting system, they have two kinds of states:Thermal failure state and normal condition, and thermal failure state is regarded as a kind of
Obey the Time Continuous of exponential distribution and the random process of state discrete;
(2) Principle of Random Process is combined, thermal failure thermal failure transition probability equation group group is obtained;
(3) according to total probability formula and thermal failure transition probability equation group, conversion obtains probability derivative equation;
(4) infinite limit is asked to the time variable in probability derivative equation and value is zero, probability derivative equation is changed
Linear matrix equation;
(5) it is complete event according to linear matrix equation and state sumFeature, with reference to electronic system four
The thermal failure rate and debugging maintenance rate of module, export thermal reliability consolidated equation group:
Solve the hot steady-state availability that equation group obtains electronic system:
(6) any one module thermal failure probability in electronic system is made to be equal to 1, debugging maintenance rate is equal to 0, makes Department of Electronics
System enters absorbing state, according to the feature of absorbing state and probability derivative equation, obtains the thermally relieved degree of electronic system with fortune
The changing rule of row time:
Thermal failure probability is with the changing rule of run time:
To thermally relieved degree integration, the electronic system hot mean down time is tried to achieve:
The present invention is further arranged to:Step (2) includes following sub-step:
(2.1) with λ1,λ2,λ3, and λ4Respectively represent energy conversion and protection module, electronic control module, link block,
Signal transmits the thermal failure rate with modular converter, μ1,μ2,μ3, and μ4Respectively energy conversion and protection module, electronic control module,
The debugging maintenance rate of link block, signal transmission and modular converter.Electronic system thermal failure state is encoded with numeral, 0
Expression normal condition, 1,2,3,4, electronic control module, link block, signal transmission module and signal conversion module are represented respectively
In thermal failure state.
(2.2) according to the coding of thermal failure state, it is P to define the t-t+ Δ t times interior state transition probability from i → jij
(Δ t), wherein i, j=0,1,2,3,4.
(2.3) according to memoryless Principle of Random Process, thermal failure thermal failure transition probability equation group group is obtained.
State transition probability Pij(Δ t)=P [X (t+ Δs t)=jX (t)=i]
Wherein, X (t) represents the state variable in the t times.
As i ≠ j, Pij(Δ t)=P [X (t+ Δs t)=jX (t)=i]=aijΔt+o(Δt)
aijIt is the state transition probability in the unit interval, it correspond to the debugging maintenance rate and crash rate of electronic system.
a01,a02,a03,a04, respectively equal to λ1,λ2,λ3,λ4;a10,a20,a30,a40, respectively equal to μ1,μ2,μ3,μ4;aij=0, i ≠ j and j
≠ 0 and i ≠ 0;(Δ t) is Δ t higher order indefinite small to o.
Due to:
Obtain i=j state transition probability:
Analyzed more than summarizing, obtaining thermal failure thermal failure transition probability equation group group is:
The present invention is further arranged to:Step (3) includes following sub-step:
(3.1) had according to total probability formula:
Thermal failure transition probability equation group group is substituted into above formula, j state Δs t deflection probability, j=0,1,2,3,4 is obtained.
(3.2) deflection probability is transplanted and probability differential equation is obtained to Δ t derivations:
(3.3) make Δ t level off to zero, try to achieve probability derivative equation:
It is an advantage of the invention that:Electronic system is resolved into four modules:Energy is changed and protection module, Electronic Control mould
Block, link block, signal transmission and modular converter, consider the failure properties and maintenance and debugging characteristic of each module, and handle
They regard a random process parameter as, are proposed based on multimode transductive reasoning theory, random theory and reliability theory
The new method that electronic system thermal reliability is analyzed and predicted.The thermally-stabilised of electronic system effectively can be analyzed and calculate to the method, which, to be had
Validity and the thermally relieved degree and thermal failure probability in the different working times, and hot mean down time.It solves electronics
The key technology of the analysis of system thermal reliability, design and prediction.
With reference to Figure of description and specific embodiment, the invention will be further described.
Embodiment
Referring to Fig. 1 to Fig. 6, a kind of electronic system thermal reliability analysis based on multimode transductive reasoning disclosed by the invention
And Forecasting Methodology, comprise the following steps:
(1) according to 26S Proteasome Structure and Function feature, electronic system is divided into four modules, they are energy conversion respectively and protected
Module, electronic control module, link block, signal transmission and modular converter, each module regard that one can debug and tie up as
Repair can adjusting system, they have two kinds of states:Thermal failure state and normal condition, and thermal failure state is regarded as a kind of
Obey the Time Continuous of exponential distribution and the random process of state discrete, the conversion of state, referring to Fig. 1;
(2) Principle of Random Process is combined, thermal failure thermal failure transition probability equation group group is obtained;
(3) according to total probability formula and thermal failure transition probability equation group, conversion obtains probability derivative equation;
(4) infinite limit is asked to the time variable in probability derivative equation and value is zero, probability derivative equation is changed
Linear matrix equation;
(5) it is complete event according to linear matrix equation and state sumFeature, with reference to electronic system four
The thermal failure rate and debugging maintenance rate of individual module, export thermal reliability consolidated equation group:
Solve the hot steady-state availability that equation group obtains electronic system:
(6) any one module thermal failure probability in electronic system is made to be equal to 1, debugging maintenance rate is equal to 0, makes Department of Electronics
System enters absorbing state, and as shown in Figure 2, according to the feature of absorbing state and probability derivative equation, the heat for obtaining electronic system can
By spending the changing rule with run time:
Thermal failure probability is with the changing rule of run time:
To thermally relieved degree integration, the electronic system hot mean down time is tried to achieve:
As preferred:Step (2) includes following sub-step:
(2.1) with λ1,λ2,λ3, and λ4Respectively represent energy conversion and protection module, electronic control module, link block,
Signal transmits the thermal failure rate with modular converter, μ1,μ2,μ3, and μ4Respectively energy conversion and protection module, electronic control module,
The debugging maintenance rate of link block, signal transmission and modular converter.Electronic system thermal failure state is encoded with numeral, 0
Expression normal condition, 1,2,3,4, electronic control module, link block, signal transmission module and signal conversion module are represented respectively
In thermal failure state.
(2.2) according to the coding of thermal failure state, it is P to define the t-t+ Δ t times interior state transition probability from i → jij
(Δ t), wherein i, j=0,1,2,3,4.
(2.3) according to memoryless Principle of Random Process, thermal failure thermal failure transition probability equation group group is obtained.State turns
Change probability Pij(Δ t)=P [X (t+ Δs t)=jX (t)=i]
Wherein, X (t) represents the state variable in the t times.
As i ≠ j, Pij(Δ t)=P [X (t+ Δs t)=jX (t)=i]=aijΔt+o(Δt)
aijIt is the state transition probability in the unit interval, it correspond to the debugging maintenance rate and crash rate of electronic system.
a01,a02,a03,a04, respectively equal to λ1,λ2,λ3,λ4;a10,a20,a30,a40, respectively equal to μ1,μ2,μ3,μ4;aij=0, i ≠ j and j
≠ 0 and i ≠ 0;(Δ t) is Δ t higher order indefinite small to o.
Due to:
Obtain i=j state transition probability:
Analyzed more than summarizing, obtaining thermal failure thermal failure transition probability equation group group is:
As preferred:Step (3) includes following sub-step:
(3.1) had according to total probability formula:
Thermal failure transition probability equation group group is substituted into above formula, j state Δs t deflection probability, j=0,1,2,3,4 is obtained.
(3.2) deflection probability is transplanted and probability differential equation is obtained to Δ t derivations:
(3.3) make Δ t level off to zero, try to achieve probability derivative equation:
Illustrated below using convertible frequency air-conditioner indoor electronic control system as embodiment:
(1) according to 26S Proteasome Structure and Function feature, convertible frequency air-conditioner indoor electronic control system is divided into four modules, they distinguish
It is energy conversion and protection module, electronic control module, link block, signal transmission and modular converter, each module is regarded as
One can debug and repair can adjusting system, they have two kinds of states:Thermal failure state and normal condition, and heat mistake
Effect state regards a kind of random process for the Time Continuous and state discrete for obeying exponential distribution, the conversion of state, referring to figure as
1;
(2) Principle of Random Process is combined, the thermal failure thermal failure conversion for obtaining convertible frequency air-conditioner indoor electronic control system is general
Rate equation group group;
(2.1) with λ1,λ2,λ3, and λ4Respectively represent energy conversion and protection module, electronic control module, link block,
Signal transmits the thermal failure rate with modular converter, μ1,μ2,μ3, and μ4Respectively energy conversion and protection module, electronic control module,
The debugging maintenance rate of link block, signal transmission and modular converter.Electronic system thermal failure state is encoded with numeral, 0
Expression normal condition, 1,2,3,4, electronic control module, link block, signal transmission module and signal conversion module are represented respectively
In thermal failure state.λ1,λ2,λ3, and λ4, μ1,μ2,μ3, and μ4Value be shown in Table 1.
Module and parameter |
Crash rate (104FIT) |
Debug maintenance rate (h–1) |
Energy is changed and protection module |
2.00 |
0.585 |
Electronic control module |
1.50 |
0.326 |
Link block |
1.00 |
0.255 |
Signal is transmitted and modular converter |
2.50 |
0.685 |
Table 1
(2.2) according to the coding of thermal failure state, it is P to define the t-t+ Δ t times interior state transition probability from i → jij
(Δ t), wherein i, j=0,1,2,3,4.
(2.3) according to memoryless Principle of Random Process, thermal failure thermal failure transition probability equation group group is obtained.
State transition probability Pij(Δ t)=P [X (t+ Δs t)=jX (t)=i]
Wherein, X (t) represents the state variable in the t times.
As i ≠ j, Pij(Δ t)=P [X (t+ Δs t)=jX (t)=i]=aijΔt+o(Δt)
aijIt is the state transition probability in the unit interval, it correspond to the debugging maintenance rate and crash rate of electronic system.
a01,a02,a03,a04, respectively equal to λ1,λ2,λ3,λ4;a10,a20,a30,a40, respectively equal to μ1,μ2,μ3,μ4;aij=0, i ≠ j and j
≠ 0 and i ≠ 0;(Δ t) is Δ t higher order indefinite small to o.
Due to:
Obtain i=j state transition probability:
Analyzed more than summarizing, obtaining thermal failure thermal failure transition probability equation group group is:
(3) according to total probability formula and thermal failure transition probability equation group, conversion obtains probability derivative equation;
(3.1) had according to total probability formula:
Thermal failure transition probability equation group group is substituted into above formula, j state Δs t deflection probability is obtained,
J=0,1,2,3,4.
(3.2) deflection probability is transplanted and probability differential equation is obtained to Δ t derivations:
(3.3) make Δ t level off to zero, try to achieve probability derivative equation:
(4) infinite limit is asked to the time variable in probability derivative equation and value is zero, probability derivative equation is changed
Linear matrix equation;
(5) it is complete event according to linear matrix equation and state sumFeature, with reference in convertible frequency air-conditioner room
The thermal failure rate and debugging maintenance rate of four modules of electronic control system, export thermal reliability consolidated equation group:
Solve the hot steady-state availability that equation group obtains electronic system:
(6) any one module thermal failure probability in convertible frequency air-conditioner indoor electronic control system is made to be equal to 1, debugging maintenance
Rate is equal to 0, electronic system is entered absorbing state, as shown in Figure 2, according to the feature of absorbing state and probability derivative equation, obtains
Thermally relieved degree to convertible frequency air-conditioner indoor electronic control system is with the changing rule of run time:
Thermal failure probability is with the changing rule of run time:
By above thermal reliability characteristic quantity, the thermally relieved degree and thermal failure probability of electronic control system are analyzed and predicted
With the changing rule of run time, as shown in Figure 4 and 5.And electronic control system is obtained in different run time systems
Thermally relieved degree with the crash rate of module changing rule, as shown in Figure 6.
To thermally relieved degree integration, the electronic system hot mean down time is tried to achieve:
By the analysis and prediction of the present embodiment, convertible frequency air-conditioner indoor electronic control system operation 20,000 hour it
Before, its thermally relieved degree drastically declines, and the increase then as run time is gently reduced.The 5,000h when system operation,
During 10,000h, 15,000h, and 20,000h, thermally relieved degree is respectively 0.7047,0.4966,0.3499, and 0.2466, mould
The disturbance of block crash rate has a great impact to the thermally relieved degree of whole system, the result of this and actual motion be it is consistent,
As shown in Figure 6.
The present invention can realize that effective thermal reliability is assessed and predicted to electronic system, greatly improve electronic system operation
Safety and reliability.It effectively can analyze and calculate the thermally-stabilised availability of electronic system and in the different working times
Thermally relieved degree and thermal failure probability, and hot mean down time.It solves the analysis of electronic system thermal reliability, designed and pre-
The key technology of survey.
Above-described embodiment is served only for that the present invention is further described, it is impossible to be interpreted as to the specific descriptions of the present invention
Limiting the scope of the present invention, it is non-that the technician of this area makes some according to the content of foregoing invention to the present invention
The modifications and adaptations of essence are each fallen within protection scope of the present invention.