CN105160171B - A kind of analysis of electronic system thermal reliability and Forecasting Methodology based on multimode transductive reasoning - Google Patents

A kind of analysis of electronic system thermal reliability and Forecasting Methodology based on multimode transductive reasoning Download PDF

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CN105160171B
CN105160171B CN201510543630.8A CN201510543630A CN105160171B CN 105160171 B CN105160171 B CN 105160171B CN 201510543630 A CN201510543630 A CN 201510543630A CN 105160171 B CN105160171 B CN 105160171B
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万毅
万宇通
黄海隆
施肖菁
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Wenzhou University
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Abstract

The invention discloses a kind of electronic system thermal reliability analysis based on multimode transductive reasoning and Forecasting Methodology; according to 26S Proteasome Structure and Function feature; electronic system is divided into four modules, they are energy conversion and protection module, electronic control module, link block, signal transmission and modular converter respectively;Each module be one can debug and repair can adjusting system, each module has thermal failure state and normal condition, and thermal failure state is a kind of random process for the Time Continuous and state discrete for obeying exponential distribution;Consider the failure properties and maintenance and debugging characteristic of each module, and they are regarded as a random process parameter, the analysis of electronic system thermal reliability is proposed based on multimode transductive reasoning theory, random theory and reliability theory and predicted, it effectively can analyze and calculate the thermally-stabilised availability and the thermally relieved degree and thermal failure probability in the different working times of electronic system, and hot mean down time.

Description

A kind of analysis of electronic system thermal reliability and prediction based on multimode transductive reasoning Method
Technical field
The present invention relates to electronic system thermal reliability technical field, and in particular to a kind of electricity based on multimode transductive reasoning Subsystem thermal reliability is analyzed and Forecasting Methodology.
Background technology
Internal high-power component can produce substantial amounts of heat to electronic system when in use, what long-term temperature alternating was produced Thermal stress can cause system component to occur thermal fatigue failure, raising and the complexity of working environment with electronic system integrated level Change, its heat generation density also more and more higher, the problems of excessive heat of electronic system has become the main cause of electronic system failure.It is quantitative Ground predict and calculate electronic system hot steady-state availability, thermal failure probability and thermally relieved degree be prevention electronic system break down and Ensure the reliable and stable work of electronic equipment it is most basic by way of, be also electronic system carry out thermal reliability design premise and base Plinth, it improves thermal design for high density electronic system and provides foundation, so as to targetedly carry out thermal reliability optimization design.
It is external to proceed by the heat analysis of electronic system early in last century the eighties mid-term, comment warmly and estimate the work of aspect, To the nineties in last century, Sachio, Yasufufu of Japanese Tosbiba companies are to electronic system particularly computer motherboard system System, which comment warmly, to be estimated and quality control and has delivered scientific paper.In recent years, foreign countries were to element heat analysis in electronic system There is certain research, LuisAntBnio, Waak Bambace of space research institute of Brazilian state-run association et al. is it is proposed that use side The thermal life of each element on method (BIEM) the prediction mainboard of boundary's integration, this method is applicable and isotropism and anisotropic Problem, its advantage is simple, easy, can be applicable for substantial amounts of practical problem.Irish School of Mechanical Engineering of state university JohnLohan et al. with regard to thermal convection current in the case of dsc data analysis and forecasting research have been carried out to the element of electronic system.
China electronic system comment warmly estimate and analysis in terms of research start late, be originally all the warp of foreign Test, the military then gives great attention to the thermal design of electronic system, has promulgated national military standard GJB/Z27-92 in July, 1992《Electricity Sub- equipment dependability thermal design handbook》, it is the basic foundation for carrying out heat analysis;In September, 1993 has promulgated national military standard GJB/Z35- 93《Component derating criteria》, define various components thermal reliability value in the case of different application.
Because electronic system is in the presence of circulating temperature, hot-machine coupling relation is extremely complex, be one it is dynamic with Machine process, thermal reliability analysis and prediction modeling are extremely difficult, and this causes the thermal reliability of the electronic system of China to analyze and pre- The research of survey technology is less, and level is relatively low, and electronic system exploitation and research institute only make some preliminary thermal reliabilities by rule of thumb Analysis and reliability prediction, so as to take certain control measure, do not carry out the thermal reliability analysis of accurate and science and assess Work, this greatly constrains the development of electronic system development technique.
The content of the invention
In view of the deficienciess of the prior art, it is an object of the invention to provide a kind of electricity based on multimode transductive reasoning Subsystem thermal reliability is analyzed and Forecasting Methodology, the method effectively can analyze and calculate the thermally-stabilised availability of electronic system with In the thermally relieved degree and thermal failure probability of different working times, and hot mean down time.It solves electronic system heat The key technology of fail-safe analysis, design and prediction.
To achieve the above object, the invention provides following technical scheme:A kind of electronics based on multimode transductive reasoning System thermal reliability is analyzed and Forecasting Methodology, is comprised the following steps:
(1) according to 26S Proteasome Structure and Function feature, electronic system is divided into four modules, they are energy conversion respectively and protected Module, electronic control module, link block, signal transmission and modular converter, each module regard that one can debug and tie up as Repair can adjusting system, they have two kinds of states:Thermal failure state and normal condition, and thermal failure state is regarded as a kind of Obey the Time Continuous of exponential distribution and the random process of state discrete;
(2) Principle of Random Process is combined, thermal failure thermal failure transition probability equation group group is obtained;
(3) according to total probability formula and thermal failure transition probability equation group, conversion obtains probability derivative equation;
(4) infinite limit is asked to the time variable in probability derivative equation and value is zero, probability derivative equation is changed Linear matrix equation;
(5) it is complete event according to linear matrix equation and state sumFeature, with reference to electronic system four The thermal failure rate and debugging maintenance rate of module, export thermal reliability consolidated equation group:
Solve the hot steady-state availability that equation group obtains electronic system:
(6) any one module thermal failure probability in electronic system is made to be equal to 1, debugging maintenance rate is equal to 0, makes Department of Electronics System enters absorbing state, according to the feature of absorbing state and probability derivative equation, obtains the thermally relieved degree of electronic system with fortune The changing rule of row time:
Thermal failure probability is with the changing rule of run time:
To thermally relieved degree integration, the electronic system hot mean down time is tried to achieve:
The present invention is further arranged to:Step (2) includes following sub-step:
(2.1) with λ123, and λ4Respectively represent energy conversion and protection module, electronic control module, link block, Signal transmits the thermal failure rate with modular converter, μ123, and μ4Respectively energy conversion and protection module, electronic control module, The debugging maintenance rate of link block, signal transmission and modular converter.Electronic system thermal failure state is encoded with numeral, 0 Expression normal condition, 1,2,3,4, electronic control module, link block, signal transmission module and signal conversion module are represented respectively In thermal failure state.
(2.2) according to the coding of thermal failure state, it is P to define the t-t+ Δ t times interior state transition probability from i → jij (Δ t), wherein i, j=0,1,2,3,4.
(2.3) according to memoryless Principle of Random Process, thermal failure thermal failure transition probability equation group group is obtained.
State transition probability Pij(Δ t)=P [X (t+ Δs t)=jX (t)=i]
Wherein, X (t) represents the state variable in the t times.
As i ≠ j, Pij(Δ t)=P [X (t+ Δs t)=jX (t)=i]=aijΔt+o(Δt)
aijIt is the state transition probability in the unit interval, it correspond to the debugging maintenance rate and crash rate of electronic system. a01,a02,a03,a04, respectively equal to λ1234;a10,a20,a30,a40, respectively equal to μ1234;aij=0, i ≠ j and j ≠ 0 and i ≠ 0;(Δ t) is Δ t higher order indefinite small to o.
Due to:
Obtain i=j state transition probability:
Analyzed more than summarizing, obtaining thermal failure thermal failure transition probability equation group group is:
The present invention is further arranged to:Step (3) includes following sub-step:
(3.1) had according to total probability formula:
Thermal failure transition probability equation group group is substituted into above formula, j state Δs t deflection probability, j=0,1,2,3,4 is obtained.
(3.2) deflection probability is transplanted and probability differential equation is obtained to Δ t derivations:
(3.3) make Δ t level off to zero, try to achieve probability derivative equation:
It is an advantage of the invention that:Electronic system is resolved into four modules:Energy is changed and protection module, Electronic Control mould Block, link block, signal transmission and modular converter, consider the failure properties and maintenance and debugging characteristic of each module, and handle They regard a random process parameter as, are proposed based on multimode transductive reasoning theory, random theory and reliability theory The new method that electronic system thermal reliability is analyzed and predicted.The thermally-stabilised of electronic system effectively can be analyzed and calculate to the method, which, to be had Validity and the thermally relieved degree and thermal failure probability in the different working times, and hot mean down time.It solves electronics The key technology of the analysis of system thermal reliability, design and prediction.
With reference to Figure of description and specific embodiment, the invention will be further described.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 be electronic system in the embodiment of the present invention thermal failure and it is normal between state transition graph;
Fig. 2 for electronic system of the embodiment of the present invention thermal failure and it is normal between absorbing state transition diagram;
In Fig. 3 embodiment of the present invention hot steady-state availability with module thermal failure rate changing rule figure;
Fig. 4 is the thermally relieved degree of system of the embodiment of the present invention with the changing rule figure of run time;
Fig. 5, which is that system of the embodiment of the present invention is thermally relieved, spends the thermal failure probability with system with the changing rule of run time Figure;
Fig. 6 is that the embodiment of the present invention is advised in the thermally relieved degree of different run time systems with the change of the crash rate of module Rule figure.
Embodiment
Referring to Fig. 1 to Fig. 6, a kind of electronic system thermal reliability analysis based on multimode transductive reasoning disclosed by the invention And Forecasting Methodology, comprise the following steps:
(1) according to 26S Proteasome Structure and Function feature, electronic system is divided into four modules, they are energy conversion respectively and protected Module, electronic control module, link block, signal transmission and modular converter, each module regard that one can debug and tie up as Repair can adjusting system, they have two kinds of states:Thermal failure state and normal condition, and thermal failure state is regarded as a kind of Obey the Time Continuous of exponential distribution and the random process of state discrete, the conversion of state, referring to Fig. 1;
(2) Principle of Random Process is combined, thermal failure thermal failure transition probability equation group group is obtained;
(3) according to total probability formula and thermal failure transition probability equation group, conversion obtains probability derivative equation;
(4) infinite limit is asked to the time variable in probability derivative equation and value is zero, probability derivative equation is changed Linear matrix equation;
(5) it is complete event according to linear matrix equation and state sumFeature, with reference to electronic system four The thermal failure rate and debugging maintenance rate of individual module, export thermal reliability consolidated equation group:
Solve the hot steady-state availability that equation group obtains electronic system:
(6) any one module thermal failure probability in electronic system is made to be equal to 1, debugging maintenance rate is equal to 0, makes Department of Electronics System enters absorbing state, and as shown in Figure 2, according to the feature of absorbing state and probability derivative equation, the heat for obtaining electronic system can By spending the changing rule with run time:
Thermal failure probability is with the changing rule of run time:
To thermally relieved degree integration, the electronic system hot mean down time is tried to achieve:
As preferred:Step (2) includes following sub-step:
(2.1) with λ123, and λ4Respectively represent energy conversion and protection module, electronic control module, link block, Signal transmits the thermal failure rate with modular converter, μ123, and μ4Respectively energy conversion and protection module, electronic control module, The debugging maintenance rate of link block, signal transmission and modular converter.Electronic system thermal failure state is encoded with numeral, 0 Expression normal condition, 1,2,3,4, electronic control module, link block, signal transmission module and signal conversion module are represented respectively In thermal failure state.
(2.2) according to the coding of thermal failure state, it is P to define the t-t+ Δ t times interior state transition probability from i → jij (Δ t), wherein i, j=0,1,2,3,4.
(2.3) according to memoryless Principle of Random Process, thermal failure thermal failure transition probability equation group group is obtained.State turns Change probability Pij(Δ t)=P [X (t+ Δs t)=jX (t)=i]
Wherein, X (t) represents the state variable in the t times.
As i ≠ j, Pij(Δ t)=P [X (t+ Δs t)=jX (t)=i]=aijΔt+o(Δt)
aijIt is the state transition probability in the unit interval, it correspond to the debugging maintenance rate and crash rate of electronic system. a01,a02,a03,a04, respectively equal to λ1234;a10,a20,a30,a40, respectively equal to μ1234;aij=0, i ≠ j and j ≠ 0 and i ≠ 0;(Δ t) is Δ t higher order indefinite small to o.
Due to:
Obtain i=j state transition probability:
Analyzed more than summarizing, obtaining thermal failure thermal failure transition probability equation group group is:
As preferred:Step (3) includes following sub-step:
(3.1) had according to total probability formula:
Thermal failure transition probability equation group group is substituted into above formula, j state Δs t deflection probability, j=0,1,2,3,4 is obtained.
(3.2) deflection probability is transplanted and probability differential equation is obtained to Δ t derivations:
(3.3) make Δ t level off to zero, try to achieve probability derivative equation:
Illustrated below using convertible frequency air-conditioner indoor electronic control system as embodiment:
(1) according to 26S Proteasome Structure and Function feature, convertible frequency air-conditioner indoor electronic control system is divided into four modules, they distinguish It is energy conversion and protection module, electronic control module, link block, signal transmission and modular converter, each module is regarded as One can debug and repair can adjusting system, they have two kinds of states:Thermal failure state and normal condition, and heat mistake Effect state regards a kind of random process for the Time Continuous and state discrete for obeying exponential distribution, the conversion of state, referring to figure as 1;
(2) Principle of Random Process is combined, the thermal failure thermal failure conversion for obtaining convertible frequency air-conditioner indoor electronic control system is general Rate equation group group;
(2.1) with λ123, and λ4Respectively represent energy conversion and protection module, electronic control module, link block, Signal transmits the thermal failure rate with modular converter, μ123, and μ4Respectively energy conversion and protection module, electronic control module, The debugging maintenance rate of link block, signal transmission and modular converter.Electronic system thermal failure state is encoded with numeral, 0 Expression normal condition, 1,2,3,4, electronic control module, link block, signal transmission module and signal conversion module are represented respectively In thermal failure state.λ123, and λ4, μ123, and μ4Value be shown in Table 1.
Module and parameter Crash rate (104FIT) Debug maintenance rate (h–1)
Energy is changed and protection module 2.00 0.585
Electronic control module 1.50 0.326
Link block 1.00 0.255
Signal is transmitted and modular converter 2.50 0.685
Table 1
(2.2) according to the coding of thermal failure state, it is P to define the t-t+ Δ t times interior state transition probability from i → jij (Δ t), wherein i, j=0,1,2,3,4.
(2.3) according to memoryless Principle of Random Process, thermal failure thermal failure transition probability equation group group is obtained.
State transition probability Pij(Δ t)=P [X (t+ Δs t)=jX (t)=i]
Wherein, X (t) represents the state variable in the t times.
As i ≠ j, Pij(Δ t)=P [X (t+ Δs t)=jX (t)=i]=aijΔt+o(Δt)
aijIt is the state transition probability in the unit interval, it correspond to the debugging maintenance rate and crash rate of electronic system. a01,a02,a03,a04, respectively equal to λ1234;a10,a20,a30,a40, respectively equal to μ1234;aij=0, i ≠ j and j ≠ 0 and i ≠ 0;(Δ t) is Δ t higher order indefinite small to o.
Due to:
Obtain i=j state transition probability:
Analyzed more than summarizing, obtaining thermal failure thermal failure transition probability equation group group is:
(3) according to total probability formula and thermal failure transition probability equation group, conversion obtains probability derivative equation;
(3.1) had according to total probability formula:
Thermal failure transition probability equation group group is substituted into above formula, j state Δs t deflection probability is obtained,
J=0,1,2,3,4.
(3.2) deflection probability is transplanted and probability differential equation is obtained to Δ t derivations:
(3.3) make Δ t level off to zero, try to achieve probability derivative equation:
(4) infinite limit is asked to the time variable in probability derivative equation and value is zero, probability derivative equation is changed Linear matrix equation;
(5) it is complete event according to linear matrix equation and state sumFeature, with reference in convertible frequency air-conditioner room The thermal failure rate and debugging maintenance rate of four modules of electronic control system, export thermal reliability consolidated equation group:
Solve the hot steady-state availability that equation group obtains electronic system:
(6) any one module thermal failure probability in convertible frequency air-conditioner indoor electronic control system is made to be equal to 1, debugging maintenance Rate is equal to 0, electronic system is entered absorbing state, as shown in Figure 2, according to the feature of absorbing state and probability derivative equation, obtains Thermally relieved degree to convertible frequency air-conditioner indoor electronic control system is with the changing rule of run time:
Thermal failure probability is with the changing rule of run time:
By above thermal reliability characteristic quantity, the thermally relieved degree and thermal failure probability of electronic control system are analyzed and predicted With the changing rule of run time, as shown in Figure 4 and 5.And electronic control system is obtained in different run time systems Thermally relieved degree with the crash rate of module changing rule, as shown in Figure 6.
To thermally relieved degree integration, the electronic system hot mean down time is tried to achieve:
By the analysis and prediction of the present embodiment, convertible frequency air-conditioner indoor electronic control system operation 20,000 hour it Before, its thermally relieved degree drastically declines, and the increase then as run time is gently reduced.The 5,000h when system operation, During 10,000h, 15,000h, and 20,000h, thermally relieved degree is respectively 0.7047,0.4966,0.3499, and 0.2466, mould The disturbance of block crash rate has a great impact to the thermally relieved degree of whole system, the result of this and actual motion be it is consistent, As shown in Figure 6.
The present invention can realize that effective thermal reliability is assessed and predicted to electronic system, greatly improve electronic system operation Safety and reliability.It effectively can analyze and calculate the thermally-stabilised availability of electronic system and in the different working times Thermally relieved degree and thermal failure probability, and hot mean down time.It solves the analysis of electronic system thermal reliability, designed and pre- The key technology of survey.
Above-described embodiment is served only for that the present invention is further described, it is impossible to be interpreted as to the specific descriptions of the present invention Limiting the scope of the present invention, it is non-that the technician of this area makes some according to the content of foregoing invention to the present invention The modifications and adaptations of essence are each fallen within protection scope of the present invention.

Claims (4)

1. a kind of analysis of electronic system thermal reliability and Forecasting Methodology based on multimode transductive reasoning, it is characterised in that:Including Following steps:
(1) according to 26S Proteasome Structure and Function feature, electronic system is divided into four modules, they are energy conversion and protection mould respectively Block, electronic control module, link block, signal transmission and modular converter;Each module be one can debug and repair can Adjusting system, each module has thermal failure state and normal condition, and thermal failure state is a kind of time for obeying exponential distribution The random process of continuous and state discrete;
(2) Principle of Random Process is combined, thermal failure thermal failure transition probability equation group group is obtained;
(3) according to total probability formula and thermal failure transition probability equation group, conversion obtains probability derivative equation;
(4) infinite limit is asked to the time variable in probability derivative equation and value is zero, probability derivative equation is converted into line Property matrix equation;
(5) according to linear matrix equation, with reference to the thermal failure rate and debugging maintenance rate of four modules of electronic system, export thermally relieved Property consolidated equation group, solve equation group obtain electronic system hot steady-state availability;
(6) any one module thermal failure probability in electronic system is made to be equal to 1, debugging maintenance rate is equal to 0, enters electronic system Enter absorbing state, according to the feature of absorbing state and probability differential equation, when obtaining the thermally relieved degree of electronic system with operation Between changing rule, thermally relieved degree is integrated, the electronic system hot mean down time is tried to achieve.
2. a kind of analysis of electronic system thermal reliability and prediction side based on multimode transductive reasoning according to claim 1 Method, it is characterised in that:Step (2) includes following sub-step:
(2.1) with λ123, and λ4Represent that energy conversion and protection module, electronic control module, link block, signal are passed respectively The thermal failure rate of defeated and modular converter, μ123, and μ4Energy is changed and protection module, electronic control module, connection mould respectively The debugging maintenance rate of block, signal transmission and modular converter;Electronic system thermal failure state is encoded with numeral, 0 represents just Normal state, 1,2,3,4, represent that electronic control module, link block, signal transmission module and signal conversion module are in heat respectively Failure state;
(2.2) according to the coding of thermal failure state, it is P to define the t-t+ Δ t times interior state transition probability from i → jij(Δt), Wherein i, j=0,1,2,3,4;
(2.3) Principle of Random Process is combined, thermal failure thermal failure transition probability equation group group is obtained.
3. a kind of analysis of electronic system thermal reliability and prediction side based on multimode transductive reasoning according to claim 2 Method, it is characterised in that:Step (2.3) the thermal failure thermal failure transition probability equation group group is:
Wherein, aij=0, i ≠ j and j ≠ 0 and i ≠ 0;(Δ t) is Δ t higher order indefinite small to o.
4. a kind of analysis of electronic system thermal reliability and prediction side based on multimode transductive reasoning according to claim 3 Method, it is characterised in that:Step (3) includes following sub-step:
(3.1) according to total probability formula:
Thermal failure transition probability equation group group is substituted into above formula, j state Δs t deflection probability, j=0,1,2,3,4 is obtained;
(3.2) deflection probability is transplanted and probability differential equation is obtained to Δ t derivations:
(3.3) make Δ t level off to zero, try to achieve probability derivative equation:
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Application publication date: 20151216

Assignee: Huizhi digital technology (Ningbo) Co.,Ltd.

Assignor: Wenzhou University

Contract record no.: X2021330000823

Denomination of invention: A thermal reliability analysis and prediction method of electronic system based on multi state transition reasoning

Granted publication date: 20170929

License type: Common License

Record date: 20211220

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