CN105101087A - Method and system for pedestrian flow estimation and trend prediction based on location area and real-time communication - Google Patents
Method and system for pedestrian flow estimation and trend prediction based on location area and real-time communication Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a method and system for pedestrian flow estimation and trend prediction based on a location area and real-time communication. The system mainly comprises a planning module, a collection module, an operation center, a pedestrian flow information database, and a demonstration system. The planning module is used for setting a specific location area/tracking area for a selected region. The collection module is used for collecting the total number of pedestrians entering into the location area/tracking area. The operation center updates the total number of pedestrians in the location area/tracking area in real time, and pushes the total number to the demonstration system for display. The collection module records real-time communication businesses happening in the location area/tracking area, determines the number of users in a base station/community range, and carries out the estimation of the pedestrians in the location area/tracking area. During emergency, the distribution condition of the pedestrians in the location area/tracking area needs to be known. A system pushes specific information to all users in the location area/tracking area, and each user starts real-time communication business and receives the information, so as to obtain the position of each user and the number of users in the base station/community range.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to region stream of people estimation and trend forecasting method, system and the device of a kind of position-based district and real time communication, relate to mobile communication technology and statistics, belong to mobile communication technology field and statistics category.
Background technology
During 31 days 23 December in 2014 about 35 points, on the occasion of across year nocturnalism, meet New Year because a lot of visitor citizen are gathered in Bund in Shanghai, the stream of people that Chen Yi square, outbeach, Huangpu District enters and exits liquidates, and causes someone to fall down, and tread event occurs.By point 23 days 11 January in 2015, event causes dead 49 people of 36 people injured, and existing 47 people leave hospital after diagnosis and treatment, and 2 severely injured personnel continue in institute's treatment, and wherein 1 vital sign is also not steady.On January 21st, 2015,1231 outbeach swarm and jostlement incident investigation reports are announced in Shanghai City, assert this be together to activity prevention of a mass character prepare not enough, field management is ineffective, it is mishandling to tackle and the swarm and jostlement that causes creating greater casualties and the public safety responsibility event of serious consequence.
How to know the quantity of the stream of people in selection area in time, and support to do to the trend of the stream of people necessary means that certain prediction is solution of emergent event.According to retrieval, the method for existing stream of people's monitoring and predicting has several as follows:
Number of patent application: CN201320759244.9, in a kind of utility model patent of demographics counting device, a kind of demographics counting device is disclosed, mainly comprise: N+1 group infrared light curtain sensor and N number of pyroelectric sensor, N be greater than 2 natural number, distance between 2 groups of adjacent infrared light curtain sensors is less than 1/3rd of normal human's shoulder breadth, arranges 1 pyroelectric human body transducer, carry out demographics thus between 2 groups of adjacent infrared light curtain sensors.But this patent is just for the demographics of there is any discrepancy mouth, and inapplicable have multiple gateway with selection area.
Number of patent application: CN201220366990.7, in regional extent demographics management devices utility model patent in, be connected with 3G communication module by video camera, can accurate statistics attendance, decrease the inaccuracy of normally used infrared ray admission demographics.Number of patent application: CN201420074554.1, the utility model patent of embedded gateway people flow rate statistical device is also the number being carried out real-time statistics gateway process by camera, 3G communication module, wifi wireless communication module and Ethernet finite communication module.But, above-mentioned two patents are just for the demographics of there is any discrepancy mouth, inapplicable have multiple gateway with selection area, all by video camera monitoring stream of people quantity, and don't possess the ability identifying people, to carry out repeat count to the situation that gateway has the stream of people repeatedly to come in and go out, accuracy is not high, and its shortcoming is apparent.
Number of patent application: 201210396201.9, in a kind of patent of invention of the Pedestrian flow detection system based on foot pressure, by laying pressure sensor array at stream of people's test point, footprint pressure distribution in human body traveling process, thus according to the biomechanics characteristic in human walking procedure, real-time tracking the personnel that detect pass in and out state and number of people entering, can realize two-way simultaneous personnel technology accurately.This patent is the demographics for there is any discrepancy mouth equally, and requires turnover personnel one by one by pressure sensor array, and obviously can not meet the requirement to demographics when regional area pours in major pedestrian movement, its shortcoming is apparent.
Number of patent application: CN201010108927.9, in patent of invention based on the large-scale multi-venue activity passenger flow trend forecasting method of REID, for in passenger flow, everyone wears a RFID tag, form passenger flow, current passenger flow, passenger flow condition predicting three passenger flow trend statistics and prediction in the past as calculated in management control system.The limitation of this patent is apparent, in reality, does not often possess for each wears the condition of a RFID tag.
Number of patent application: CN201410400814.4, based in the number assay method of geographic grid and the patent of invention of crowd situation monitoring method and system, for geographic grid is set up in a certain region, communication cell (CELL) is projected on geographic grid, calculate the overlapping area of CELL and each geographic grid unit relative, and calculate the ratio that this overlapping area accounts for CELL self area; Obtain current mobile communications number of devices in each CELL, thus obtain the number in each geographic grid unit.But, from the basic principle of mobile communication, only under talking state or connected state, mobile communication system can know mobile terminal affiliated communication cell, and under Idle state (under standby mode), mobile communication system can only know the lane place (LocationArea at mobile terminal place, or tracking area (TrackingArea LA), TA) (note: be referred to as lane place in 23G mobile communication system, 4G mobile communication system is referred to as tracking area), as can be seen here, this patent can only for the mobile terminal being in talking state or connected state, its shortcoming is apparent.
In sum, the Patents of the demographics retrieved in State Intellectual Property Office all can not tackle quick, timely, accurate stream of people's quantity survey (surveying) of similar Shanghai tread event and the situation of stream of people's trend prediction.
Summary of the invention
For the deficiency of existing stream of people's evaluation method, the invention provides region stream of people estimation and trend forecasting method, system and the device of a kind of position-based district and real time communication, mainly comprise: planning module, acquisition module, arithmetic center, people information database, demo system.The present invention is that selected region arranges specific lane place/tracking area by planning module, can arrange one or more lane place/tracking area according to the flow of the people of this regional historical record; Stream of people's total quantity of enter into location zones/tracking area in a period of time cycle T 1 is gathered by acquisition module; By one, arithmetic center interval period of time T 2, timing upgrades, and total number of persons under lane place/tracking area is pushed to demo system and presents; By number of users real-time communication service occurring determine to carry within the scope of each base station/cell in lane place/tracking area in the inherent lane place/tracking area of acquisition module record a period of time cycle T 3, the stream of people in lane place/tracking area is estimated; By one, arithmetic center interval period of time T 4, timing upgrades, and the number of users under each base station/cell is pushed to demo system presents; Arithmetic center preserves the situation of change of a period of time T5 lane place/tracking area total number of persons, by the total number of persons situation of change of demo system order demonstration period of time T 5, is predicted stream of people's situation of movement by situation of change; Arithmetic center is preserved each base station/cell servant in a period of time T6 lane place/tracking area and is mass-sended the quantity of raw real time communication, by number situation of change under each base station/cell of demo system demonstration period of time T 6, by situation of change, situation of movement is moved to the stream of people in lane place/tracking area and predict; The inventive method is also under case of emergency, the distribution situation of crowd under lane place/tracking area need be known, customizing messages is pushed to users all under lane place/tracking area by system, each user initiates real-time communication service and receives this particular message, knows the quantity of user under the particular location of each user under lane place/tracking area and base station/cell thus.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, the present invention is further elaborated.
Fig. 1 is structure chart of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is acquisition module structure chart.
Fig. 3 is that demo system shows schematic diagram in real time.
Fig. 4 is the total number of persons trend prediction of demo system lane place.
Fig. 5 is stream of people's trend prediction under each base station/cell in demo system lane place.
Embodiment
With reference to accompanying drawing, the region stream of people estimation of a kind of position-based district involved in the present invention and real time communication and trend forecasting method are described.
Step 100, be that selected region arranges specific lane place/tracking area by planning module, can arrange one or more lane place/tracking area according to the flow of the people of this regional historical record, the base station/cell quantity that also can comprise according to selection area arranges one or more lane place/tracking area.
2G, 3G mobile communications network use location district, mobile communications network carrys out paging mobile subscriber by sending beep-page message in whole lane place.The functional description of lane place is as follows: network side will establish call connection with mobile subscriber, just must record the positional information of this mobile subscriber at any time, so that can this user of paging when needs.At network equipment attaching position register (HomeLocationRegister, HLR) positional information (switch (MobileSwitchingCentre at the current place of this user of the in store essential information of local registered user and the current of this user in, and Visited Location Registor (VisitorLocationRegister, VLR information) MSC); Travelling carriage, when just starting shooting, after locking onto broadcast channel, carries out the comparison of positional information, namely compares the location area information of storing in SIM card whether consistent with the location area information that broadcast channel issues.If inconsistent, travelling carriage upgrades with regard to enable position.The task that location updating completes registers new lane place in current MSC/VLR, if find that MSC/VLR also changes, then wants signaling to revise MSC/VLR information in HLR to registered place, delete old MSC/VLR information simultaneously.When travelling carriage is in holding state, it will not stop the positional information intercepting broadcast channel, once find that the positional information that positional information in SIM card and broadcast channel issue is inconsistent, enable position renewal immediately.When travelling carriage is in talking state, it will intercept the positional information issued with path channels, and when finding that the positional information in SIM card and the information issued with path channels are inconsistent, after completing call, enable position upgrades immediately.In order to ensure not lose the paging to mobile subscriber, necessarily require at any time, the positional information of storing in HLR, VLR and SIM card is consistent.
The area of coverage is divided into multiple tracking area TA by 4G mobile communications network, and the lane place LA of its function and 2G, 3G and Route Area (RoutingArea, RA) (note: Route Area is used for data service) are similar, are the base units of LTE system Position Updating and paging.TA TA code (TrackingAreaCode, TAC) mark, a TA can comprise one or more community.
Arranging the paging of influential system to user of lane place and tracking area, if the border of LA is excessive, by making the paging load of base station/cell too high, causes congested and call loss; The little PAGING load that can reduce community and BSC in LA border, but LA border cell number can be made like this to increase, causing network site to upgrade load increases.According to the mode of existing GSM main flow equipment acquiescence, 2G, 3G network support 113 paging/seconds, 350 paging/seconds of 4G network support, calculate the quantity of selection area setting position district/tracking area thus.
Step 200, the mobile phone terminal total quantity of enter into location zones/tracking area in a period of time cycle T 1 is gathered by acquisition module, acquisition interface need comprise the interface comprising location updating signaling message in 2G, 3G, 4G network of existing mobile communications network, refer to Fig. 2, use operator's signaling data that user's usage ratio is maximum, increase the accuracy estimated to total number of persons by mobile phone terminal total quantity;
4G network needs to gather base station eNodeB and Mobility Management Entity (MobilityManagementEntity, the signaling message of the S1-MME interface MME), MME and home subscriber register (HomeSubscriberServer, HSS) the S6a interface between, wherein, gather the base station/cell information that S1-MME interface can know 4G terminal real time communication, gather S6a interface and can know tracing section updating (TrackingAreaUpdate, TAU) signaling message, termination number can be parsed, in order to counting;
2/3G exchange of speech (CircuitSwitch, CS) territory, gather media gateway (MediaGateway, MGW) Mc interface and between switching center MSCServer, the base station/cell information that 2/3G terminal real time voice traffic communicates can be known, also can know location area updating (LocationAreaUpdate, LAU) signaling message, termination number can be parsed, in order to counting;
2G packet switching (PacketSwitch, PS) territory, gather packet control unit (PacketControlUnit, PCU) Gb Interface and between Serving GPRS Support Node (ServingGPRSSupportNode, SGSN), can know the base station/cell information that 2G terminal real-time data service communicates, also Routing Area Update (RoutingAreaUpdate can be known, RAU) signaling message, can parse termination number, in order to counting;
3G packet-switched domain, gather radio network controller (RadioNetworkController, RNC) Iu-PS interface and between SGSN, the base station/cell information that 3G terminal real-time data service communicates can be known, also Routing Area Update (RoutingAreaUpdate can be known, RAU) signaling message, can parse termination number, in order to counting;
Operator's signaling data that user's usage ratio is maximum need be adopted, increase the accuracy estimated to total number of persons by mobile phone terminal total quantity, if possible, the above-mentioned interface signaling data of all operators can be gathered, obtain the data of whole mobile phone terminal quantity, strengthen the accuracy of total number of persons estimation further;
Step 210, set up the corresponding relation of same geographic range and 4GTAC, 2G and 3GLAC, in existing mobile network, the lane place LAC of tracking area TAC and the 2G of 4G network is set to one-to-one relationship, often inconsistent at 2G, 3G Location Area Code LAC of same geographic range, manually need set up the corresponding relation of geographic range and 234G lane place/tracking area;
Step 220, acquisition module is by resolving described interface signaling, parse location updating/tracing section updating signaling message, location updating LAU/ tracing section updating TAU comprises three kinds of modes, and first is the lane place/tracing section updating, second of initiating when physical location changes is that periodical location area/tracing section updating, the 3rd is for opening the lane place/tracing section updating of terminal after entering selection area; Consider the second and the third updating type, period of time T 1 should be more than or equal to 2 doubling time location updating/tracing section updating setup times;
Step 230, acquisition module resolves described interface signaling, filter out all lane place, Route Area, tracing section updating message, parse the international mobile subscriber identity (InternationalMobileSubscriberIdentity of the user that signaling comprises, IMSI), the IMSI number of each user is globally unique identification code, in order to the consideration of user's private information, can block the part code section of centre, by user's IMSI information typing people information database of selection area;
Step 240, when a certain user enters into other regions, namely in other lane place, Route Area, tracking area capture this user's IMSI information, then delete this user profile at people information database;
Step 250, acquisition module resolves described interface signaling, and the voice that the user filtering real time communication occurs at 2G/3G/4G network or data service, resolve user's IMSI information, typing people information database, the 2G/3G/4G base station/cell information in addition of typing in the lump;
Step 260, when a certain user that real time communication occurs moves to another position by certain point of selection area, the base station/cell of service also there occurs switching, then mark the current 2G/3G/4G base station/cell information of this user profile at people information database, meanwhile, the cell-of-origin before record switching and current area;
Step 300, with reference to figure 3, by one, arithmetic center interval period of time T 2, timing upgrades, total number of persons under lane place/tracking area is pushed to demo system present, demo system need show as early as possible current or on moment time lane place/tracking area under total number of persons, period of time T 2 need little as far as possible, as 60 seconds, demo system can be selected support number word to present to play up mode with color range to present;
Step 400, by the communication service occurred in the inherent lane place/tracking area of acquisition module record a period of time cycle T 3, determine the number of users carried within the scope of each base station/cell in lane place/tracking area, the stream of people in lane place/tracking area is estimated; Acquisition module need gather the communication service of mobile communications network 234G voice-over-net territory, packet domain, the user ID IMSI typing people information database of communication service will be there is, when user, in new community, communication service occurs, the user place cell ID more in new database; Acquisition time cycle T 3 is unsuitable long, longly can not reflect the number of users carried within the scope of each base station/cell in lane place/tracking area, as 3-10 minute;
Step 500, with reference to figure 3, by one, arithmetic center interval period of time T 4, timing upgrades, and the number of users under each base station/cell be pushed to demo system present, demo system need show as early as possible current or on moment time lane place/tracking area in there is the number of users of communication service under each base station/cell, period of time T 4 needs little as far as possible, as 60 seconds, demo system can be selected support number word to present to play up mode with color range to present;
Step 600, with reference to figure 4, arithmetic center preserves the situation of change of a period of time T5 lane place/tracking area total number of persons, by the total number of persons situation of change of demo system order demonstration period of time T 5, is predicted stream of people's situation of movement by situation of change;
Step 610, if the total number of persons trend prediction of single lane place, the T5 cycle can be one week, a inside of a week, weekend etc., if be chosen to be one week, total number of persons under one week mean place district of then display system display time interval 1, period 2, period 3, period 4, is used for predicting subsequent period;
Step 620, if the total number of persons trend prediction of multiple lane place, the T5 cycle can be one week, a inside of a week, weekend etc., if be chosen to be one week, then display system display time interval 1, period 2, period 3, one week mean place district 1 of period 4, lane place 2,3 times, lane place total number of persons, be used for predicting subsequent period;
Step 630, demo system supports the trend prediction of geographic pattern, the digital forecast of diagrammatic form to the prediction of lane place total number of persons;
Averaging step 700, with reference to figure 5, arithmetic center is preserved each base station/cell servant in a period of time T6 lane place/tracking area and is mass-sended the quantity of raw real time communication, by number situation of change under each base station/cell of demo system demonstration period of time T 6, by situation of change, situation of movement is moved to the stream of people in lane place/tracking area and predict;
Step 710, the T6 cycle can be upper one day, one week, a inside of a week, weekend etc., if be chosen to be one day, then upper one day of display system played in order period 1, period 2, period 3, period 4 number under this lane place under each base station/cell, subsequent period is predicted;
Step 720, by period played in order on geographic pattern, according to the display prediction stream of people mobile trend that community number of per period is maximum;
Step 800, inventive method is also under case of emergency, the distribution situation of crowd under lane place/tracking area need be known, customizing messages is pushed to users all under lane place/tracking area by system, each user initiates real-time communication service and receives this particular message, comes thus or the quantity of user under the position of each user and base station/cell under lane place/tracking area.
Claims (1)
1. stream of people's estimation of position-based district and real time communication and trend forecasting method and system, it has: planning module, acquisition module, arithmetic center, people information database, demo system, and its feature comprises the following steps:
(1) be that selected region arranges specific lane place/tracking area by planning module, can arrange one or more lane place/tracking area according to the flow of the people of this regional historical record, the base station/cell quantity that also can comprise according to selection area arranges one or more lane place/tracking area;
(2) the mobile phone terminal total quantity of enter into location zones/tracking area in a period of time cycle T 1 is gathered by acquisition module, acquisition interface need comprise the interface comprising location updating signaling message in 2G, 3G, 4G network of existing mobile communications network, use operator's signaling data that user's usage ratio is maximum, increase the accuracy estimated to total number of persons by mobile phone terminal total quantity;
(3) corresponding relation of same geographic range and 4GTAC, 2G and 3GLAC is set up, in existing mobile network, the lane place LAC of tracking area TAC and the 2G of 4G network is set to one-to-one relationship, often inconsistent at 2G, 3G Location Area Code LAC of same geographic range, manually need set up the corresponding relation of geographic range and 234G lane place/tracking area;
(4) acquisition module is by resolving described interface signaling, parse location updating/tracing section updating signaling message, location updating LAU/ tracing section updating TAU comprises three kinds of modes, and first is the lane place/tracing section updating, second of initiating when physical location changes is that periodical location area/tracing section updating, the 3rd is for opening the lane place/tracing section updating of terminal after entering selection area; Consider the second and the third updating type, period of time T 1 should be more than or equal to 2 doubling time location updating/tracing section updating setup times;
(5) acquisition module resolves described interface signaling, filter out all lane place, Route Area, tracing section updating message, parse the international mobile subscriber identity (InternationalMobileSubscriberIdentity of the user that signaling comprises, IMSI), the IMSI number of each user is globally unique identification code, in order to the consideration of user's private information, can block the part code section of centre, by user's IMSI information typing people information database of selection area;
(6) when a certain user enters into other regions, namely in other lane place, Route Area, tracking area capture this user's IMSI information, then delete this user profile at people information database;
(7) acquisition module resolves described interface signaling, and the voice that the user filtering real time communication occurs at 2G/3G/4G network or data service, resolve user's IMSI information, typing people information database, the 2G/3G/4G base station/cell information in addition of typing in the lump;
(8) when a certain user that real time communication occurs moves to another position by certain point of selection area, the base station/cell of service also there occurs switching, then mark the current 2G/3G/4G base station/cell information of this user profile at people information database, meanwhile, the cell-of-origin before record switching and current area;
(9) by one, arithmetic center interval period of time T 2, timing upgrades, total number of persons under lane place/tracking area is pushed to demo system present, demo system need show as early as possible current or on moment time lane place/tracking area under total number of persons, period of time T 2 needs little as far as possible, as 60 seconds, demo system can be selected support number word to present to play up mode with color range to present;
(10) communication service by occurring in the inherent lane place/tracking area of acquisition module record a period of time cycle T 3, determine the number of users carried within the scope of each base station/cell in lane place/tracking area, the stream of people in lane place/tracking area is estimated; Acquisition module need gather the communication service of mobile communications network 234G voice-over-net territory, packet domain, the user ID IMSI typing people information database of communication service will be there is, when user, in new community, communication service occurs, the user place cell ID more in new database; Acquisition time cycle T 3 is unsuitable long, longly can not reflect the number of users carried within the scope of each base station/cell in lane place/tracking area, as 3-10 minute;
(11) by one, arithmetic center interval period of time T 4, timing upgrades, and the number of users under each base station/cell is pushed to demo system presents, demo system need show as early as possible current or on moment time lane place/tracking area in there is the number of users of communication service under each base station/cell, period of time T 4 needs little as far as possible, as 60 seconds, demo system can be selected support number word to present to play up mode with color range to present;
(12) arithmetic center preserves the situation of change of a period of time T5 lane place/tracking area total number of persons, by the total number of persons situation of change of demo system order demonstration period of time T 5, is predicted stream of people's situation of movement by situation of change;
(13) if the total number of persons trend prediction of single lane place, the T5 cycle can be one week, a inside of a week, weekend etc., if be chosen to be one week, then total number of persons under one week mean place district of display system display time interval 1, period 2, period 3, period 4, is used for predicting subsequent period;
(14) if the total number of persons trend prediction of multiple lane place, the T5 cycle can be one week, a inside of a week, weekend etc., if be chosen to be one week, then display system display time interval 1, period 2, period 3, one week mean place district 1 of period 4, lane place 2,3 times, lane place total number of persons, be used for predicting subsequent period;
(15) demo system supports the trend prediction of geographic pattern, the digital forecast of diagrammatic form to the prediction of lane place total number of persons;
(16) arithmetic center is preserved each base station/cell servant in a period of time T6 lane place/tracking area and is mass-sended the quantity of raw real time communication, by number situation of change under each base station/cell of demo system demonstration period of time T 6, by situation of change, situation of movement is moved to the stream of people in lane place/tracking area and predict;
(17) the T6 cycle can be upper one day, one week, a inside of a week, weekend etc., if be chosen to be one day, then upper one day of display system played in order period 1, period 2, period 3, period 4 number under this lane place under each base station/cell, subsequent period is predicted;
(18) on geographic pattern, period played in order is pressed, according to the display prediction stream of people mobile trend that community number of per period is maximum;
(19) inventive method is also under case of emergency, the distribution situation of crowd under lane place/tracking area need be known, customizing messages is pushed to users all under lane place/tracking area by system, each user initiates real-time communication service and receives this particular message, comes thus or the quantity of user under the position of each user and base station/cell under lane place/tracking area.
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