CN105095667B - The maximum icing day number calculating method continuously of knowledge is sentenced based on glime - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses a kind of maximum icing day number calculating method continuously sentencing knowledge based on glime, the method comprises the steps: 1. historical data screenings；2. icing day sentences knowledge threshold calculations；3. icing day sentences knowledge, and 4. maximum icing number of days continuously calculates.This method have the beneficial effect that 1, that the present invention nurses one's health is clear, workable, practical, filled up and there is no the technological gap calculating continuous icing number of days based on rain (mist) rime at present.2, extensively, transplantability is good in the suitability of the present invention, uses sentencing of present invention proposition to know the regular maximum continuous icing number of days data base of history that can build arbitrary region with computational methods.3, the calculated maximum of the present invention continuous icing number of days, for research history icing increasing law, carries out electrical network icing long-term forecast and provides important reference frame.

Description

The maximum icing day number calculating method continuously of knowledge is sentenced based on glime

Technical field

The invention belongs to power transmission and distribution technical field, particularly relate to a kind of sentence the maximum of knowledge based on glime and cover continuously Ice day number calculating method.

Background technology

Ice damage is one of chief threat of power network safety operation.South China area ice damage takes place frequently, particularly 2008, south China area there occurs the electrical network icing disaster of persistence on a large scale, and direct economic loss reaches Tens billion of units.Along with electrical network development, a plurality of extra high voltage line begins to pass through easy icing region, therefore, grinds Studying carefully electrical network icing rule, building history icing data base is Accurate Prediction electrical network icing, especially carries out extra-high voltage The premise of icing prediction.

In existing technology, the total icing number of days of main employing studies electrical network icing historical law.By statistics gas As the total number of days of the icing of website, calculate reappeared period, instruct electrical network anti-ice.But, current icing number of days meter During calculation, part data exist serious incomplete, affect icing degree analyzing result.Meanwhile, icing is being calculated During total number of days, owing to having counted the icing process of discontinuous and short time interval, it is impossible to distinguish when total icing day When number is identical, electrical network icing process be one-time continuous icing or the icing process of repeatedly short time interval superimposed, and The icing order of severity that both of these case causes differs greatly.Additionally, in same year winter, long duration covers continuously Ice and short time interval icing process all have generation, use total icing number of days to calculate, add the icing order of severity, There are differences with actual icing situation.

Therefore, when carrying out electrical network icing number of days and analyzing, need by weather environment data mining, and consider A situation arises for glaze or rime, sentences knowledge icing and day occurs, then calculate continuous electrical network icing number of days.This is as the criterion Really grasp electrical network icing historical law, promote electrical network icing long-term forecast level, ensure transmission line of electricity safety and stability Run to provide and effectively instruct.

Summary of the invention

The technical problem to be solved in the present invention is: for the deficiency of currently existing technology, proposes a kind of based on rain Rime sentences the maximum icing day number calculating method continuously of knowledge, and using the method can be that electrical network anti-ice disposes offer science , reliably, comprehensively instruct, the method thinking novelty, clear process, accuracy rate are high, practical.

The solution of the present invention is:

A kind of maximum icing day counting method continuously sentencing knowledge based on glime, specifically comprises the following steps that

Step 1, screening historical data；

From meteorological element data base, filter out the every day of history winter (December-February next year) all websites Glaze or rime phenomenon observational record, temperature and relative humidity data；

Icing day is sentenced knowledge threshold value in step 2, calculating；

The data filtered out according to step 1, when statistics occurs glaze or rime, single website all days are the highest Meansigma methods T of temperature_maxMeansigma methods T with all daily minimal tcmperature_min:

$T_{\max }=\frac{1}{n}\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\Σ}}{t}_{\max \_i}$

$T_{\min }=\frac{1}{n}\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\Σ}}{t}_{\min \_i}$

Wherein, n is single website generation glaze or total number of days of rime, t_{max_i}And t_{min_i}It is respectively this website There is daily maximum temperature and the daily minimal tcmperature of i-th day of glaze or rime；

According to T_maxAnd T_min, calculate temperature on average, as respective site icing occur time mean temperature threshold Value T_mth；

Set up the set of Daily minimum temperature when this website occurs glaze or rime every time, calculate the day of this website The probability-distribution function P of minimum temperature₁(T_min)；Set probability threshold value α, ask for day corresponding to probability threshold value α Lowest temperature angle value, as minimum temperature threshold T_minth；

Set up when there is glaze or rime in this website every time day minimum relative humidity set, calculate this website Day minimum relative humidity probability-distribution function P₂(H_min)；Set probability threshold value β, ask for probability threshold value β Corresponding day minimum rh value, as minimum relative humidity threshold value H_minth；

Step 3, carry out icing day sentencing knowledge；

The glaze or rime phenomenon observational record every day of this website filtered out according to step 1, and step 2 That sets up sentences knowledge threshold value icing day, each day to history winter, carries out icing day sentencing knowledge；

If the glaze in step 3.1 step 1 or rime phenomenon observational record are for having glaze or rime phenomenon, then Directly sentenced knowledge the same day for icing day；

If the glaze in step 3.2 step 1 or rime phenomenon observational record be without glaze or rime phenomenon or It is recorded as sky, and before the same day, observational record has been glaze or rime phenomenon one day after, then enter according to following methods Go and sentence knowledge:

If as daily mean temperature≤T_mth, minimum temperature≤T_minth, illustrate that icing is the state maintained, then the same day Sentence knowledge for icing day；

If as daily mean temperature≤T_mth, minimum temperature ＞ T_minth, relative humidity >=H_minth, steam in air Saturation is of a relatively high, and icing melts slowly, then still sentenced knowledge the same day for icing day；

If as daily mean temperature≤T_mth, minimum temperature ＞ T_minth, relative humidity ＜ H_minth, it is believed that icing disappears Melt relatively fast, then sentenced knowledge the same day for non-icing day；

If as daily mean temperature ＞ T_mth, icing melts very fast, then sentenced knowledge the same day for non-icing day；

If the glaze in step 3.3 step 1 or rime phenomenon observational record be without glaze or rime phenomenon or It is recorded as sky, and before the same day, observational record has not been glaze or rime phenomenon one day after, then directly sentenced the same day Know for non-icing day；

Step 4, maximum icing number of days continuously calculate；

According to the identifying result of step 3, count this website and annual winter the continuous of continuous icing occurs every time Icing number of days；And calculate the maximum icing number of days continuously in this website annual winter:

Remember that this website year occurs the continuous icing number of days collection of continuous icing to be combined into winter every time {D_ice1,D_ice2,…,D_icej,…,D_iceM, wherein, D_icej, j=1,2 ..., M represents this annual control of this website The continuous icing number of days that j time occurs continuous icing, M is this year middle age of this website the number of times of continuous icing to occur； Then the maximum icing number of days continuously in this year winter of this website is:

D_icemax=max (D_ice1,D_ice2,…,D_icej,…,D_iceM)。

Repetition step 2, to step 4, calculates the maximum icing number of days continuously in all websites annual winter successively.

In described step 2, icing generation mean temperature threshold value T_mthComputing formula is:

$T_{mth}=\frac{\left(T_{\max }-T_{\min }\right)}{2\×24}\underset{t=0}{\overset{23}{\Σ}}\left(\sin \left(\frac{t-2}{12}\mathrm{\π}-\frac{\mathrm{\π}}{2}\right)\right)+\frac{\left(T_{\max }+T_{\min }\right)}{2}$

Wherein, t is the time, t=0,1 ..., 23.

In described step 2, the set of Daily minimum temperature when every time there is glaze or rime according to website, meter Calculate the meansigma methods of Daily minimum temperature and variance yields, and be brought in the middle of t-distribution function, obtain the day of this website Low temperature probability-distribution function P₁(T_min)。

Described probability threshold value α=95%.

In described step 2, there is day minimum relative humidity set when glaze or rime according to website, meter every time Calculate meansigma methods and the variance yields of day minimum relative humidity set, and be brought in the middle of normal distyribution function, be somebody's turn to do The minimum relative humidity probability-distribution function P of website₂(H_min),

Described probability threshold value β=95%.

Beneficial effect:

The present invention considers glaze or rime with or without a situation arises and the icing environment feelings such as temperature of electric transmission line, precipitation Condition, and utilize diurnal variation function Binding experiment room to test, calculate temperature threshold when icing occurs and humidity threshold, Different regions are carried out icing and sentences knowledge, calculate the continuous icing number of days of each process and annual maximum icing continuously Number of days, the maximum icing number of days data base continuously of transmission line of electricity that available practical application is strong.Have the advantage that

1, the present invention nurses one's health clear, workable, practical, has filled up and there is no at present based on rain (mist) Rime calculates the technological gap of continuous icing number of days.

2, the suitability of the present invention is wide, and transplantability is good, and use present invention proposition sentences knowledge method and calculating icing day Method can build the maximum icing number of days data base continuously of history of arbitrary region, may be used for setting up continuous icing Number of days data base, arranges maximum icing number of days data and relevant information (website number, longitude, latitude, day continuously Phase (year, month, day)) and information attribute, including data type, length, precision, constraint rule etc., and Maximum for each website icing number of days data continuously are imported in data base.For research history icing increasing law, Carry out electrical network icing long-term forecast and provide important reference frame.

Accompanying drawing explanation

Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the present invention.

Detailed description of the invention

Below in conjunction with detailed description of the invention, the present invention is described in more detail:

Embodiment 1:

As a example by Changsha observation website, based on glime sentence knowledge maximum icing day continuously number calculating method concrete Implementation process is as follows:

(1) historical data screening.

By the observation website of weather bureau, the filter out Changsha Station 1951-2013 (December in winter of totally 63 years February-next year) the phenomenon observational record of rain (mist) rime, meteorological site mean temperature, max. daily temperature, minimum Temperature, precipitation, average relative humidity and minimum relative humidity data,

(2) icing day sentences knowledge threshold calculations.

The meteorological data filtered out according to step (1) and rain (mist) rime data statistics history generation rain (mist) During rime, meansigma methods T of all daily maximum temperatures of Changsha Station_maxMeansigma methods T with daily minimal tcmperature_min。

$T_{\max }=\frac{1}{n}\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\Σ}}{t}_{\max \_i}$

$T_{\min }=\frac{1}{n}\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\Σ}}{t}_{\min \_i}$

Wherein, n is total number of days of Changsha Station rain in history (mist) rime record, t_{max_i}And t_{min_i}It is respectively i-th The daily maximum temperature recorded during secondary generation rain (mist) rime and daily minimal tcmperature.

It is calculated Changsha Station T by above formula_max=2.67 DEG C and T_min=-0.01 DEG C, and just use temperature diurnal variation String function model sets up the temperature diurnal variation function of this website, sets up temperature on average meter according to temperature diurnal variation function Calculate model, then seek its temperature on average, as mean temperature threshold value T_mth:

$T_{mth}=\frac{\left(T_{\max }-T_{\min }\right)}{2\×24}\underset{t=0}{\overset{23}{\Σ}}\left(\sin \left(\frac{t-2}{12}\mathrm{\π}-\frac{\mathrm{\π}}{2}\right)\right)+\frac{\left(T_{\max }+T_{\min }\right)}{2}$

Wherein, T_mthFor mean temperature threshold value, T_maxAnd T_minFor highest temperature meansigma methods computed above with Lowest temperature meansigma methods, t is the time, and span is [0,23].

Calculate temperature on average according to above-mentioned formula, obtain the icing generation mean temperature threshold value in Changsha T_mth=1.28 DEG C.

Set up Daily minimum temperature set when rain (mist) rime occurs, calculate meansigma methods and the side of Daily minimum temperature Difference, and be brought in the middle of t-distribution function, obtain the minimum temperature probability-distribution function P of Changsha Station₁(T_min), And choose 95% as probability threshold value α, calculate the Daily minimum temperature that this threshold value is corresponding, as minimum temperature threshold T_minth, according to calculating, Changsha Station minimum temperature threshold is T_minth=0 DEG C.Set up when rain (mist) rime occurs Day minimum relative humidity set, calculates meansigma methods and the variance yields of day minimum relative humidity set, and is just brought into In the middle of state distribution function, obtain the minimum relative humidity probability-distribution function P of website₂(H_min), and choose 95% As probability threshold value β, calculate the minimum rh value that this threshold value is corresponding, as minimum relative humidity threshold value H_minth, according to calculating, Changsha Station minimum relative humidity threshold value is H_minth=80%.

(3) icing day sentences knowledge.

According to the glime number of days record of the corresponding observation station that step (1) filters out, build according to step (3) Vertical sentences knowledge rule, sentences knowledge icing day, and calculates icing number of days in annual winter.

(3.1) during rain (mist) rime observational record rainy (mist) rime phenomenon, then icing it has been recorded as.

(3.2) rain (mist) rime observational record is without during rain (mist) rime phenomenon or be recorded as sky, and ought be a few days ago Observe when all there is rain (mist) rime one day after, need to determine whether icing day according to a under type:

When daily mean temperature≤1.28 DEG C, minimum temperature≤0 DEG C, illustrate that icing is the state maintained, be recorded as Icing day；

When daily mean temperature≤1.28 DEG C, minimum temperature ＞ 0 DEG C, relative humidity >=80%, in air, steam is satisfied Of a relatively high with degree, icing melts slowly, is still recorded as icing day；

As daily mean temperature≤1.28 DEG C, minimum temperature ＞ 0 DEG C, relative humidity ＜ 80%, it is believed that icing melts Relatively fast, it is recorded as non-icing day；

As daily mean temperature ＞ 1.28 DEG C, icing melts very fast, illustrates that continuous icing process is interrupted, be recorded as non- Icing day.

(3.3) rain (mist) rime observational record without rain (mist) rime phenomenon or is recorded as sky, and before and after the same day When within one day, observation the most all occurs rain (mist) rime, then this day icing is recorded as without icing.

(4) maximum icing number of days continuously calculates.

Sentence the icing number of days record of knowledge according to step (4), calculate the continuous of each icing process in annual winter Icing number of days D_ice, obtain annual continuous icing number of days set { D_ice1,D_ice2,…,D_iceM, and calculate Big icing number of days continuously:

D_icemax=max (D_ice1,D_ice2,…,D_iceM)

The suitability of the present invention is wide, and transplantability is good, and use present invention proposition sentences knowledge method and computational methods icing day The maximum icing number of days data base continuously of history of arbitrary region can be built, may be used for setting up continuous icing number of days Data base, arrange maximum icing number of days data continuously and relevant information (website number, longitude, latitude, the date (year, Month, day)) and information attribute, including data type, length, precision, constraint rule etc., and by each station The maximum icing number of days data continuously of point import in data base.For research history icing increasing law, carry out electrical network Icing long-term forecast provides important reference frame.

Claims (7)

1. sentence the maximum icing day number calculating method continuously of transmission line of electricity of knowledge based on glime, its feature exists In, comprise the following steps:

Step 1, screening historical data；

From meteorological element data base, filter out the every day of history winter (December-February next year) all websites Glaze or rime phenomenon observational record, temperature and relative humidity data；

Icing day is sentenced knowledge threshold value in step 2, calculating；

The data filtered out according to step 1, when statistics occurs glaze or rime, single website all days are the highest Meansigma methods T of temperature_maxMeansigma methods T with all daily minimal tcmperature_min:

$T_{\max }=\frac{1}{n}\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\Σ}}{t}_{\max \_i}$

$T_{\min }=\frac{1}{n}\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\Σ}}{t}_{\min \_i}$

Wherein, n is single website generation glaze or total number of days of rime, t_{max_i}And t_{min_i}It is respectively this website There is daily maximum temperature and the daily minimal tcmperature of i-th day of glaze or rime；

According to T_maxAnd T_min, calculate temperature on average, as respective site icing occur time mean temperature threshold Value T_mth；

Set up the set of Daily minimum temperature when this website occurs glaze or rime every time, calculate the day of this website The probability-distribution function P of minimum temperature₁(T_min)；Set probability threshold value α, ask for day corresponding to probability threshold value α Lowest temperature angle value, as minimum temperature threshold T_minth；

Set up when there is glaze or rime in this website every time day minimum relative humidity set, calculate this website Day minimum relative humidity probability-distribution function P₂(H_min)；Set probability threshold value β, ask for probability threshold value β Corresponding day minimum rh value, as minimum relative humidity threshold value H_minth；

Step 3, carry out icing day sentencing knowledge；

The glaze or rime phenomenon observational record every day of this website filtered out according to step 1, and step 2 That sets up sentences knowledge threshold value icing day, each day to history winter, carries out icing day sentencing knowledge；

If the glaze in step 3.1 step 1 or rime phenomenon observational record are for having glaze or rime phenomenon, then Directly sentenced knowledge the same day for icing day；

If the glaze in step 3.2 step 1 or rime phenomenon observational record be without glaze or rime phenomenon or It is recorded as sky, and before the same day, observational record has been glaze or rime phenomenon one day after, then enter according to following methods Go and sentence knowledge:

If as daily mean temperature≤T_mth, minimum temperature≤T_minth, then knowledge was sentenced the same day for icing day；

If as daily mean temperature≤T_mth, minimum temperature ＞ T_minth, relative humidity >=H_minth, then still sentenced the same day Know for icing day；

If as daily mean temperature≤T_mth, minimum temperature ＞ T_minth, relative humidity ＜ H_minth, then knowledge was sentenced the same day For non-icing day；

If as daily mean temperature ＞ T_mth, then knowledge was sentenced the same day for non-icing day；

If the glaze in step 3.3 step 1 or rime phenomenon observational record be without glaze or rime phenomenon or It is recorded as sky, and before the same day, observational record has not been glaze or rime phenomenon one day after, then directly sentenced the same day Know for non-icing day；

Step 4, maximum icing number of days continuously calculate:

According to the identifying result of step 3, count this website and annual winter the continuous of continuous icing occurs every time Icing number of days；And calculate the maximum icing number of days continuously in this website annual winter:

Remember that this website year occurs the continuous icing number of days collection of continuous icing to be combined into winter every time {D_ice1,D_ice2,…,D_icej,…,D_iceM, wherein, D_icej, j=1,2 ..., M represents this annual control of this website The continuous icing number of days that j time occurs continuous icing, M is this year middle age of this website the number of times of continuous icing to occur； Then the maximum icing number of days continuously in this year winter of this website is:

D_icemax=max (D_ice1,D_ice2,…,D_icej,…,D_iceM)。

The maximum icing number of days meter continuously of transmission line of electricity sentencing knowledge based on glime the most according to claim 1 Calculation method, it is characterised in that repeat step 2 to step 4, calculates all websites annual winters the most successively Big icing number of days continuously.

The maximum icing number of days meter continuously of transmission line of electricity sentencing knowledge based on glime the most according to claim 2 Calculation method, it is characterised in that in described step 2, icing generation mean temperature threshold value T_mthComputing formula is:

$T_{mth}=\frac{\left(T_{\max }-T_{\min }\right)}{2\×24}\underset{t=0}{\overset{23}{\Σ}}\left(\sin \left(\frac{t-2}{12}\mathrm{\π}-\frac{\mathrm{\π}}{2}\right)\right)+\frac{\left(T_{\max }+T_{\min }\right)}{2}$

Wherein, t is the time, t=0,1 ..., 23.

The transmission line of electricity Dalian sentencing knowledge based on glime the most according to any one of claim 1 to 3 Continuous icing day number calculating method, it is characterised in that in described step 2, occur according to website every time glaze or The set of Daily minimum temperature during rime, calculates the meansigma methods of Daily minimum temperature and variance yields, and is brought into t and divides In the middle of cloth function, obtain the Daily minimum temperature probability-distribution function P of this website₁(T_min)。

The maximum icing number of days meter continuously of transmission line of electricity sentencing knowledge based on glime the most according to claim 4 Calculation method, it is characterised in that described probability threshold value α=95%.

The transmission line of electricity Dalian sentencing knowledge based on glime the most according to any one of claim 1 to 3 Continue icing day number calculating method, it is characterised in that in described step 2, glaze or mist occur according to website every time Day minimum relative humidity set during rime, calculates meansigma methods and the variance yields of day minimum relative humidity set, and carries Enter in the middle of normal distyribution function, obtain the minimum relative humidity probability-distribution function P of this website₂(H_min)。

The maximum icing number of days meter continuously of transmission line of electricity sentencing knowledge based on glime the most according to claim 6 Calculation method, it is characterised in that described probability threshold value β=95%.