CN105005702A - Basic economic data fitting method based on computer data processing technology - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention relates to a basic economic data fitting method based on a computer data processing technology. Compared with the prior art, the basic economic data fitting method solves the defect that basic economic data can not be accurately fit. The basic economic data fitting method comprises the following steps: collecting and preprocessing original data, obtaining the basic economic data, preprocessing the basic economic data, and providing data support for constructing an evaluation index model; constructing a preliminary evaluation index model, and calculating a preliminary evaluation index; and regulating a dimension of the evaluation index, and fitting an annual real economy scale. The computer data processing technology is utilized for realizing the fitting processing of a great quantity of basic economic data.

Description

A kind of basic economy data fitting method based on microcomputer data processing

Technical field

The present invention relates to computer data fitting technique field, specifically a kind of basic economy data fitting method based on microcomputer data processing.

Background technology

Computer technology is utilized to carry out data analysis at present very general, by the powerful data processing function of computing machine, analyze Various types of data, process and matching, to solve artificial computation process, it is widely used in the field such as image procossing, electric power statistics.And in economic field, relevant basic data is all by manually calculating, deduce and obtaining, it causes the process of economic data and analysis is the simplest based on employing, effective method carries out.Special in the statistics and analysis of GDP, the authenticity of GDP and practicality are particularly important, and GDP numeral needs proper real development level of reflection real economy, and therefore its calculated amount relating to basic economy data is extremely huge.And in field of computer data processing, analysis, the treatment technology of data are very ripe, high efficiency, how utilizing microcomputer data processing to carry out accurate matching to economic base data has become the technical matters being badly in need of solving.

Summary of the invention

The object of the invention is cannot the defect of accurately matching economic base data in order to solve in prior art, provides a kind of basic economy data fitting method based on microcomputer data processing to solve the problems referred to above.

To achieve these goals, technical scheme of the present invention is as follows:

Based on a basic economy data fitting method for microcomputer data processing, comprise the following steps:

Raw data acquisition and pre-service, obtain basic economy data, carry out pre-service to basic economy data, for structure evaluation index model provides Data support;

Structure preliminary assessment index model, calculates preliminary assessment index Y _t;

The dimension of adjustment evaluation index, simulates a year real economy scale.

Described raw data acquisition and pre-service comprise the following steps:

Gather basic economy data, obtain the annual data r of nearest 10 years of Expenditure on research and development activities expenditure _t, energy resource consumption total amount the annual data n of nearest 10 years _t, medium-term and long-term credit granting amount the annual data d of nearest 10 years _t, the gross national product (GNP) annual data gdp of nearest 10 years _twith the annual data a of nearest 10 years of urban household per capita disposable income _t;

Calculate Expenditure on research and development activities expenditure and account for GDP proportion time series R _t, energy consumption intensity accounts for GDP proportion time series N _t, medium-term and long-term credit granting amount time series D _t, urban household per capita disposable income time series A _t, its computing formula is as follows:

$R_t=\frac{r_t}{{\mathrm{gdp}}_t};$

$N_t=\frac{n_t}{{\mathrm{gdp}}_t};$

D _t＝d _t；

A _t＝a _t；

To R _t, N _t, D _t, A _tcarry out the process that quantizes respectively, by calculating:

log(R _t)、log(N _t)、log(D _t)、log(A _t)。

Described structure preliminary assessment index model comprises the following steps:

Set up the matrix X of 10 × 3, first of X is classified as log (R _t), second be classified as log (N _t), the 3rd be classified as log (D _t);

3 × 3 covariance matrixes calculating matrix X are Σ;

To utilize and method or root method calculate the maximum eigenvalue λ of Σ and the proper vector e=(e after the standardization of correspondence ₁, e ₂, e ₃);

Calculate preliminary assessment index Y _t, its computing formula is as follows:

Y _t＝e ₁log(R _t)+e ₂log(N _t)+e ₃log(D _t)。

The dimension of described adjustment evaluation index comprises the following steps:

Calculate scaling μ, its computing formula is as follows:

$\begin{array}{c}\mathrm{\μ}=\arg \left(\underset{\mathrm{\μ}}{\min }\underset{i=1}{\overset{10}{\Σ}}{({\mathrm{\μY}}_t-log(A_t\left)\right)}^2\right)\\ =\arg \left(\underset{\mathrm{\μ}}{\min }\underset{t=1}{\overset{10}{\Σ}}{\left(\mathrm{\μ}\right(e_{1}log\left(R_t\right)+e_2\log \left(D_t\right)+e_3\log \left(N_t\right))-\log (A_t\left)\right)}^2\right)\end{array};$

Calculate final evaluation index Z _t, its computing formula is as follows:

Z _t＝μY _t＝μ(e ₁log(R _t)+e ₂log(N _t)+e ₃log(D _t))，

Wherein, Z _tbe a length be the time series of 10;

Calculate sequence

Sequence it is the development level of real economy annual over 10 years.

Calculate first 9 years year real economy scale increasing degree formula as follows:

$\frac{e^{Z_2}-e^{Z_1}}{e^{Z_1}},...,\frac{e^{Z_{10}}-e^{Z_9}}{e^{Z_9}}.$

Beneficial effect

A kind of basic economy data fitting method based on microcomputer data processing of the present invention, compared with prior art utilizes the process of fitting treatment of microcomputer data processing realization to a large amount of economic base data.By utilizing computing machine to set up preliminary assessment index model, realize the preparation foundation of preliminary assessment index and comprehensive covering of raw data, information interpretation rate is more than 95%.By utilizing iterative computation processing mode, realize the adjustment to evaluation index dimension.Fitting data authenticity after process is high, more reasonably can assess the true development level of real economy, have very high confidence level.

Accompanying drawing explanation

Fig. 1 is method precedence diagram of the present invention.

Embodiment

For making to have a better understanding and awareness architectural feature of the present invention and effect of reaching, coordinating detailed description in order to preferred embodiment and accompanying drawing, being described as follows:

As shown in Figure 1, a kind of basic economy data fitting method based on microcomputer data processing of the present invention, comprises the following steps:

The first step, raw data acquisition and pre-service.Obtain basic economy data, pre-service is carried out to basic economy data, for structure evaluation index model provides Data support.Data prediction allly carries out subsequent analysis by Modling model, thus the prerequisite of the operating process of obtaining information and basis.Ensureing on the basis that the raw data that adopts is true and reliable and representative, set up by suitable model and the inspection of accuracy and confidence level, finally could obtain the reliable judgement to the current entity level of economic development and evaluation.Its concrete steps are as follows:

(1) gather basic economy data, obtain the annual data r of nearest 10 years of Expenditure on research and development activities expenditure _t, energy resource consumption total amount the annual data n of nearest 10 years _t, medium-term and long-term credit granting amount the annual data d of nearest 10 years _t, the gross national product (GNP) annual data gdp of nearest 10 years _twith the annual data a of nearest 10 years of urban household per capita disposable income _t.Above data can release news from ASSOCIATE STATISTICS mechanism and obtain, such as, add up China's economic data, then can obtain above data at national statistics board web.R _t, n _t, d _tand gdp _t, these four data for constructing evaluation index, a _tthen be used for adjusting the order of magnitude of evaluation index, and for detecting the accuracy of set up evaluation index.At this, obtaining these five concrete basic datas is consider to have more representativeness from economics point, more can reflect the current entity level of economic development, more easily this approximating method is illustrated in following steps, and consider from technical standpoint, in this step, also can adopt other data.

(2) calculate Expenditure on research and development activities expenditure and account for GDP proportion time series R _t, energy consumption intensity accounts for GDP proportion time series N _t, medium-term and long-term credit granting amount time series D _t, urban household per capita disposable income time series A _t, its computing formula is as follows:

$R_t=\frac{r_t}{{\mathrm{gdp}}_t};$

$N_t=\frac{n_t}{{\mathrm{gdp}}_t};$

D _t＝d _t；

A _t＝a _t。

Expenditure on research and development activities expenditure accounts for the research strength that GDP proportion represents a state, and energy consumption intensity then represents the degree of optimization of the industrial structure of a state, and medium-term and long-term credit granting amount then represents the financial circles development degree of a state and fund utilizes level.By correlation test can prove these three macro-indicators all with GDP height correlation, therefore can be weighed the development level of current national entirety by the integrated use of these three base values.

(3) to R _t, N _t, D _t, A _tcarry out the process that quantizes respectively, by carrying out logarithmetics to data, effectively can improve the Linearity and stationarity of experimental data in model, weaken heteroscedasticity and the collinearity of experimental data in model, thus improve the fitting degree of model, enable the evaluation index of structure more accurate, by calculating: log (R _t), log (N _t), log (D _t), log (A _t).

Second step, structure preliminary assessment index model, calculates preliminary assessment index Y _t.Its concrete steps are as follows:

(1) set up the matrix X of 10 × 3, first of X is classified as log (R _t), second be classified as log (N _t), the 3rd be classified as log (D _t), become a matrix by three base values data fusion through process in early stage, be convenient to follow-up analysis and calculation.

(2) 3 × 3 covariance matrixes calculating matrix X are Σ, for follow-up principal component analytical method does element task.

(3) to utilize and method or root method calculate the maximum eigenvalue λ of Σ and the proper vector e=(e after the standardization of correspondence ₁, e ₂, e ₃).

According to Theory of Principal Components Analysis, the proper vector e=(e corresponding to the eigenvalue of maximum of covariance matrix Σ ₁, e ₂, e ₃) and matrix X _t=(log (R _t), log (N _t), log (D _t)) dot product be first principal component, it is comprise original three variable log (R in the various linear combinations of three variablees _t), log (N _t), log (D _t) linear combination that contained information is maximum.If the eigenwert of Σ is λ ₁, λ ₂, λ ₃, wherein λ ₁>=λ ₂>=λ ₃>=0, then the proper vector e=(e corresponding to eigenvalue of maximum of the covariance matrix Σ obtained before ₁, e ₂, e ₃) and matrix X _t=(log (R _t), log (N _t), log (D _t)) the quantity of information that comprises of dot product account for original three variable log (R _t), log (N _t), log (D _t) ratio of contained quantity of information is

Therefore, proper vector e=(e is utilized at this ₁, e ₂, e ₃) and matrix X _t=(log (R _t), log (N _t), log (D _t)) dot product may set up preliminary assessment index Y comprehensively, exactly _t.

(4) preliminary assessment index Y is calculated _t, its computing formula is as follows:

Y _t＝e ₁log(R _t)+e ₂log(N _t)+e ₃log(D _t)。

Here Y _tfor correspond to a time series of nearest 10 years situations, the method mentioned in previous step is namely utilized to obtain first principal component Y _t, it is comprise original three variable log (R in the various linear combinations of three variablees _t), log (N _t), log (D _t) linear combination that contained information is maximum.Calculated by real data and prove, Y _tinformation interpretation rate generally more than 95%, this structure also just describing this initial indication contains most quantity of information of raw data really.

3rd step, the dimension of adjustment evaluation index, simulates a year real economy scale.Its concrete steps are as follows:

(1) evaluation index obtained according to preceding step ensure that the development level that really can reflect China's real economy, choosing one can allow broad masses of the people's personal experiences to the index-urban household per capita disposable income of economic level, as benchmark, the accuracy for the evaluation index of above-mentioned steps foundation of the present invention is passed judgment on.Consider that the two exists the difference on the order of magnitude, so evaluation index above-mentioned steps set up expands μ doubly, the μ calculated according to the method described above can ensure just the evaluation index set up according to above-mentioned steps to be expanded to take the logarithm after urban household per capita disposable income seasonal effect in time series squared difference and minimum, also just ensure that the evaluation index time series after expanding according to this method and urban household per capita disposable income time series after taking the logarithm has much the same quantity rank.

The computing formula calculating scaling μ is as follows:

$\begin{array}{c}\mathrm{\μ}=\arg \left(\underset{\mathrm{\μ}}{\min }\underset{i=1}{\overset{10}{\Σ}}{({\mathrm{\μY}}_t-log(A_t\left)\right)}^2\right)\\ =\arg \left(\underset{\mathrm{\μ}}{\min }\underset{t=1}{\overset{10}{\Σ}}{\left(\mathrm{\μ}\right(e_1\log \left(R_t\right)+e_2\log \left(D_t\right)+e_3\log \left(N_t\right))-\log (A_t\left)\right)}^2\right)\end{array}.$

(2) final evaluation index Z is calculated _t, its computing formula is as follows:

Z _t＝μY _t＝μ(e ₁log(R _t)+e ₂log(N _t)+e ₃log(D _t))，

Wherein, Z _tbe a length be the time series of 10, namely calculate expand μ doubly after evaluation index time series.Truly calculated by historical data and find Z _twith log (A _t) difference substantially remain on less than 5%, also just describe and set up the evaluation index obtained according to the method described above and really extremely conform to economic level with broad masses of the people's personal experiences.

(3) sequence is calculated

Sequence be the development level of real economy annual over 10 years, this length be 10 time series may be used for weigh over nearest 10 years, the development level of annual real economy, it and urban household per capita disposable income are the same order of magnitude.

(4) calculate first 9 years year real economy scale increasing degree formula as follows:

$\frac{e^{Z_2}-e^{Z_1}}{e^{Z_1}},...,\frac{e^{Z_{10}}-e^{Z_9}}{e^{Z_9}}.$

By time series Z ₁, Z ₂..., Z ₁₀exponentiate is that exponentiate then reduces original quantity levels because the data processing in early stage is all the operation will carried out after data logarithmetics.Therefore, under the level of economic development appraisement system set up according to the method described above, the year real economy scale increasing degree of first 9 years is

More than show and describe ultimate principle of the present invention, principal character and advantage of the present invention.The technician of the industry should understand; the present invention is not restricted to the described embodiments; the just principle of the present invention described in above-described embodiment and instructions; the present invention also has various changes and modifications without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention, and these changes and improvements all fall in claimed scope of the present invention.The protection domain of application claims is defined by appending claims and equivalent thereof.

Claims (5)

1., based on a basic economy data fitting method for microcomputer data processing, it is characterized in that, comprise the following steps:

11) raw data acquisition and pre-service, obtains basic economy data, carries out pre-service to basic economy data, for structure evaluation index model provides Data support;

12) construct preliminary assessment index model, calculate preliminary assessment index Y _t;

13) adjust the dimension of evaluation index, simulate a year real economy scale.

2. a kind of basic economy data fitting method based on microcomputer data processing according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, described raw data acquisition and pre-service comprise the following steps:

21) gather basic economy data, obtain the annual data r of nearest 10 years of Expenditure on research and development activities expenditure _t, energy resource consumption total amount the annual data n of nearest 10 years _t, medium-term and long-term credit granting amount the annual data d of nearest 10 years _t, the gross national product (GNP) annual data gdp of nearest 10 years _twith the annual data a of nearest 10 years of urban household per capita disposable income _t;

22) calculate Expenditure on research and development activities expenditure and account for GDP proportion time series R _t, energy consumption intensity accounts for GDP proportion time series N _t, medium-term and long-term credit granting amount time series D _t, urban household per capita disposable income time series A _t, its computing formula is as follows:

$R_t=\frac{r_t}{{\mathrm{gdp}}_t};$

$N_t=\frac{n_t}{{\mathrm{gdp}}_t};$

D _t＝d _t；

A _t＝a _t；

23) to R _t, N _t, D _t, A _tcarry out the process that quantizes respectively, by calculating:

log(R _t)、log(N _t)、log(D _t)、log(A _t)。

3. a kind of basic economy data fitting method based on microcomputer data processing according to claim 1, is characterized in that, described structure preliminary assessment index model comprises the following steps:

31) set up the matrix X of 10 × 3, first of X is classified as log (R _t), second be classified as log (N _t), the 3rd be classified as log (D _t);

32) 3 × 3 covariance matrixes calculating matrix X are Σ;

33) to utilize and method or root method calculate the maximum eigenvalue λ of Σ and the proper vector e=(e after the standardization of correspondence ₁, e ₂, e ₃);

34) preliminary assessment index Y is calculated _t, its computing formula is as follows:

Y _t＝e ₁log(R _t)+e ₂log(N _t)+e ₃log(D _t)。

4. a kind of basic economy data fitting method based on microcomputer data processing according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, the dimension of described adjustment evaluation index comprises the following steps:

41) calculate scaling μ, its computing formula is as follows:

$\begin{array}{c}\mathrm{\μ}=\arg \left(\underset{\mathrm{\μ}}{\min }\underset{i=1}{\overset{10}{\Σ}}{({\mathrm{\μ}}_{t}Y-log(A_t\left)\right)}^2\right)\\ =\arg \left(\underset{\mathrm{\μ}}{\min }\underset{t=1}{\overset{10}{\Σ}}{\left(\mathrm{\μ}\right(e_1\log \left(R_t\right)+e_2\log \left(D_t\right)+e_3\log \left(N_t\right))-\log (A_t\left)\right)}^2\right)\end{array};$

42) final evaluation index Z is calculated _t, its computing formula is as follows:

Z _t＝μY _t＝μ(e ₁log(R _t)+e ₂log(N _t)+e ₃log(D _t))，

Wherein, Z _tbe a length be the time series of 10;

43) sequence is calculated

Sequence it is the development level of real economy annual over 10 years.

5. a kind of basic economy data fitting method based on microcomputer data processing according to claim 4, is characterized in that, calculate first 9 years year real economy scale increasing degree formula as follows:

$\frac{e^{Z_2}-e^{Z_1}}{e^{Z_1}},...,\frac{e^{Z_{10}}-e^{Z_9}}{e^{Z_9}}.$