CN104915891B - Water logging methods of risk assessment outside a kind of nuclear power plant's earthquake overlap - Google Patents
Water logging methods of risk assessment outside a kind of nuclear power plant's earthquake overlap Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention relates to water logging methods of risk assessment outside a kind of nuclear power plant's earthquake overlap, include the following steps：S100, nuclear power plant's seismic response analysis and quantification；S200, site of nuclear power plant earthquake cause exterior water logging occurrence frequency to be analyzed；The response analysis of water logging situation and quantification outside S300, nuclear power plant's earthquake overlap；S400, calculate water logging risk outside nuclear power plant's earthquake overlap.The present invention is on the basis of Probability of Earthquake safe evaluation method and exterior water logging probabilistic safety assessment method, by way of quantification obtains the exterior water logging occurrence frequency of seismic Damage state accident sequence superposition, the correlation between earthquake and exterior water logging has been handled well, so as to ensure that the correctness of analysis method and result.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to nuclear power plant's risk assessment technology, more specifically, being related to a kind of nuclear power plant's earthquake overlap external water
Flood methods of risk assessment.
Background technology
Nuclear power plant's probability distributive function technology is developed so far since the last century 70's, for including earthquake and outside
Single inside and outside portion's disaster including water logging, has all formd the directive/guide and standard of comparative maturity, such as ASME/ANS Ra-Sa-
2009, ERPI TR-1002989 etc..There is the single exterior calamity of globality influence for nuclear power plant for earthquake and exterior water logging etc.
Evil, the process of risk assessment are generally divided into risk analysis, vulnerability degree evaluation and network analysis (response analysis) three parts.
Before Fukushima nuclear accident, the risk assessment for nuclear power plant's external disaster superposition situation does not cause enough weights
Depending on the risk assessment for Disaster superposition situations such as water loggings outside earthquake overlap does not have the technical side for forming a set of specification maturation
Method, and Fukushima nuclear accident result in reactor core damage just because of earthquake overlap tsunami and radioactivity discharges on a large scale.
The content of the invention
The technical problems to be solved by the invention are that solving existing nuclear power plant's probability distributive function technology can only be directed to
Single external disaster carries out risk assessment, can not reflect nuclear power plant's external disaster superposition situation to nuclear power plant's venture influence.
The present invention solve above-mentioned technical problem technical solution be：Water logging risk outside a kind of nuclear power plant's earthquake overlap is provided
Appraisal procedure, includes the following steps：
S100, nuclear power plant's seismic response analysis and quantification：Analyzed by fault tree/Event Tree Method under nuclear power plant's earthquake
Whether response condition, including earthquake can cause the event generation of nuclear power plant's generation reactor core damage, nuclear power plant mainly to alleviate system
Earthquake effect；Earthquake front end tree-model is established, quantification obtains earthquake under earthquake intensity a and directly results in reactor core damage accident sequence
Occurrence frequency CDF1(a), the occurrence frequency SDSF of the indirect seismic Damage state accident sequence for causing reactor core to damage of earthquake
(a)；
S200, site of nuclear power plant earthquake cause exterior water logging occurrence frequency to be analyzed：Factory of nuclear power plant is calculated by equation below
Location earthquake causes exterior water logging occurrence frequency F (a, h):
F (a, h)=F (a) D (a, h) f (a, h)
In formula,
F (a) represents the occurrence frequency of earthquake intensity a；
D (a, h) represents the conditional probability that earthquake intensity a lower outer portion water logging height h occurs；
F (a, h) represents the conditional failure probability of power plant's embankment under the exterior water logging height h of earthquake intensity a superpositions；
Then, quantification obtains the frequency SDSF (a, h) that the exterior water logging of seismic Damage state accident sequence superposition occurs, formula
It is as follows：
SDSF (a, h)=SDSF (a) F (a, h)；
The response analysis of water logging situation and quantification outside S300, nuclear power plant's earthquake overlap：In seismic Damage state accident sequence
Exterior water logging front end tree-model is established in the exterior water logging of superposition on the basis of occurring, obtain water logging front end tree mould outside earthquake overlap
Type；Quantification obtains the occurrence frequency CDF that water logging outside earthquake overlap directly results in reactor core damage accident sequence2(a, h), earthquake
The occurrence frequency SFDSF of water logging damage state accident sequence outside the indirect earthquake overlap for causing reactor core to damage of the exterior water logging of superposition
(a, h)；
S400, calculate water logging risk outside nuclear power plant's earthquake overlap：Water logging damages state accident sequence outside earthquake overlap
On the basis of couple power plant internal event model, core damage frequency CDF caused by quantification obtains SFDS sequences3(a, h), leads to
Cross equation below and calculate the core damage frequency CDF that nuclear power plant is total under earthquake intensity a, exterior water logging height hAlways(a, h)：
CDFAlways(a, h)=CDF1(a)+CDF2(a, h)+CDF3(a, h).
In water logging methods of risk assessment outside nuclear power plant's earthquake overlap of the present invention, also wrapped before the step S200
Include：
S150, site of nuclear power plant earthquake cause exterior water logging situation to identify：According to factory site feature, the outer of earthquake overlap is selected
Portion's water logging situation, the exterior water logging situation include astronomical tide, storm tide, tsunami, river dam break, heavy showers, seiche.
In water logging methods of risk assessment outside nuclear power plant's earthquake overlap of the present invention, further included before the step S100
Following steps：
S010, site of nuclear power plant seismic risk analysis：According to the seismic history of site of nuclear power plant, regional seismology, area
Domain geology content, obtains earthquake risk linearity curve；
The arrangement and screening of Nuclear Power Plant Equipment inventory under S020, earthquake overlap outside water logging：Collect institute of nuclear power plant promisingly
The exterior water logging event of shake superposition provides structures, system and component list necessary to protection and mitigation capability；
S030, the evaluation of Nuclear Power Plant Equipment earthquake vulnerability degree：According to power plant's Aseismic Design information, npp safety weight is evaluated
Conditional failure probability of structures, system and the component wanted under different earthquake intensity；
Water logging failure probability evaluation outside S040, Nuclear Power Plant Equipment：Calculate Nuclear Power Plant Equipment and flood failure probability and impact
Failure probability.
In water logging methods of risk assessment outside nuclear power plant's earthquake overlap of the present invention, the step S030 includes：
According to three earthquake vulnerability degree parameters：Intermediate value shock resistance Am, randomness βR, uncertainty βU, calculate differently
Structures, system and component condition failure probability, the formula for shaking the security-critical under intensity a are as follows：
In formula：
Q=P [f<F ' | a] represent corresponding to subjective probabilitys of the conditional failure probability f of earthquake intensity a less than f '；
Φ-1[] represents the inverse of the standard accumulation Gaussian Profile of sash content.
In water logging methods of risk assessment outside nuclear power plant's earthquake overlap of the present invention, the step S040 includes：
The identification of equipment failure water logging height and determine, it is conservative to think that water level reaches equipment failure water logging height, i.e. equipment
Failure probability is 1；
Not up to water logging height, carries out equipment hydrodynamic impact Failure Assessment, for the exterior water logging side such as tsunami, flood
Formula, according to three exterior water logging vulnerability degree parameters：Exterior water logging median elevation Hm, randomness γR, uncertainty γU, calculate
The structures of security-critical under different exterior water logging height h, system and component condition failure probability, formula are as follows：
In formula：
Q=P [f<F ' | h] represent corresponding to subjective probabilitys of the conditional failure probability f of exterior water logging height h less than f '；
Φ-1[] represents the inverse of the standard accumulation Gaussian Profile of sash content.
Implement the present invention, have the advantages that：The present invention is general in Probability of Earthquake safe evaluation method and exterior water logging
On the basis of rate safe evaluation method, the exterior water logging occurrence frequency of seismic Damage state accident sequence superposition is obtained by quantification
Mode, the correlation between earthquake and exterior water logging has been handled well, so as to ensure that the correct of analysis method and result
Property.
Brief description of the drawings
To describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention more clearly, below will be to needed in the embodiment
Attached drawing is briefly described, it should be apparent that, drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, for ability
For the those of ordinary skill of domain, without creative efforts, it can also be obtained according to these attached drawings other attached
Figure.
Fig. 1 is the flow diagram of water logging methods of risk assessment preferred embodiment outside nuclear power plant's earthquake overlap of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is the flow signal of another preferred embodiment of water logging methods of risk assessment outside nuclear power plant's earthquake overlap of the present invention
Figure；
Fig. 3 is the flow diagram that present pre-ferred embodiments earthquake causes tsunami methods of risk assessment；
Fig. 4 causes the earthquake in tsunami methods of risk assessment to cause tsunami conditional probability for present pre-ferred embodiments earthquake
Analysis process schematic diagram.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with the attached drawing in the embodiment of the present invention, the technical solution in the embodiment of the present invention is carried out clear, complete
Site preparation describes, it is clear that described embodiment is only part of the embodiment of the present invention, instead of all the embodiments.It is based on
Embodiment in the present invention, those of ordinary skill in the art obtained on the premise of creative work is not made it is all its
His embodiment, belongs to the scope of protection of the invention.
Existing nuclear power plant's probability distributive function technology can only be directed to single external disaster and carry out risk assessment, but a variety of
There is internal connection, assessment is only carried out to single external disaster can not show out nuclear power plant's external disaster superposition between external disaster
The influence of situation.The main innovation point of the present invention is, there is provided water logging methods of risk assessment outside a kind of nuclear power plant's earthquake overlap,
By way of quantification obtains the exterior water logging occurrence frequency of seismic Damage state accident sequence superposition, the accurate nuclear power plant that calculates is on ground
The core damage frequency of reactor, nuclear power plant's earthquake overlap external water is directed to for China nuclear power worker under the exterior water logging of shake superposition
Flood the strick precaution of situation and alleviate and risk opinion and decision-making foundation are provided.
Fig. 1 shows the flow signal of water logging methods of risk assessment preferred embodiment outside nuclear power plant's earthquake overlap of the present invention
Figure, as shown in Figure 1, the present invention nuclear power plant's earthquake overlap outside water logging methods of risk assessment preferred embodiment in, including
Following steps：
S100, nuclear power plant's seismic response analysis and quantification：Analyzed by fault tree/Event Tree Method under nuclear power plant's earthquake
Whether response condition, including earthquake can cause the event generation of nuclear power plant's generation reactor core damage, nuclear power plant mainly to alleviate system
Earthquake effect；Earthquake front end tree-model is established, quantification obtains earthquake under earthquake intensity a and directly results in reactor core damage accident sequence
Occurrence frequency CDF1(a), the occurrence frequency SDSF of the indirect seismic Damage state accident sequence for causing reactor core to damage of earthquake
(a)." seismic Damage state accident sequence " is hereinafter simply referred to as SDS.
Preferably, in this step, nuclear power plant's seismic response analysis are carried out first with fault tree/Event Tree Method, commented
Estimate influence of the earthquake for nuclear power plant, whether usually first analysis earthquake can cause origination event (may cause power plant's reactor core damage
Event) generation, next analyze nuclear power plant and mainly alleviate the earthquake effect of system.
Then, the earthquake front end tree-model of earthquake effect is only considered by establishing, obtains SDS.The earthquake front end tree-model
It is being earthquake front end tree probabilistic safety assessment model for a kind of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) model, full name, is being referred to as earthquake front end
PSA models are set, multiple models established using probabilistic safety assessment method will appear as well herein, be hereinafter all referred to as
PSA models.
The establishment principle of earthquake front end tree PSA models is as follows：
1. front ends tree only reflects failure caused by earthquake, the other parts modelling of the random failure of system in model；
2. vulnerability degree estimate guarded in front ends tree reflection earthquake PSA or general (the low failure probability of high confidence level,
Hereinafter referred HCLPF) it is less than the seismic failure for the armamentarium for giving spectral acceleration；
3. front ends tree should be easy to be connected with internal event PSA models by boundary conditions transfer.
Influence when earthquake front end tree is by occurring earthquake to nuclear power plant's workshop, system, equipment, defines and in the tree of front end
The consequence of sequence of events, is established by using Risk Spectrum programs (abbreviation RS programs) widely used in the world afterwards
Earthquake front end tree PSA models, quantify Earthquake risk.The sequence of events consequence of earthquake front end tree PSA models has three classes：
OK, reactor core damage (CD), internal event PSA model origination events.It is specific as follows：
OK：Earthquake does not influence power plant.
CD：Directly result in the SDS of reactor core damage.Directly result in reactor core damage or think that core integrity cannot be guaranteed just
Directly think that reactor core damages (CD), its occurrence frequency is core damage frequency (CDF)., can be with by earthquake front end tree-model
Quantification obtains the occurrence frequency CDF that earthquake under earthquake intensity a directly results in reactor core damage accident sequence1(a)。
Internal event PSA model origination events：The indirect SDS for causing reactor core to damage.Reactor core damage is not directly resulted in, but
Origination event in internal event PSA models is caused to occur.By earthquake front end tree PSA models, it is strong earthquake can be obtained with quantification
The occurrence frequency SDSF (a) of the indirect SDS for causing reactor core to damage of earthquake under degree a.The SDSF (a) can be with hereinafter step S200
Take into consideration.
S200, site of nuclear power plant earthquake cause exterior water logging occurrence frequency to be analyzed：Factory of nuclear power plant is calculated by equation below
Location earthquake causes exterior water logging occurrence frequency F (a, h):
F (a, h)=F (a) D (a, h) f (a, h)
In formula,
F (a) represents the occurrence frequency of earthquake intensity a；
D (a, h) represents the conditional probability that earthquake intensity a lower outer portion water logging height h occurs；
F (a, h) represents the conditional failure probability of power plant's embankment under the exterior water logging height h of earthquake intensity a superpositions；
Then, quantification obtains the frequency SDSF (a, h) that the exterior water logging of seismic Damage state accident sequence superposition occurs, formula
It is as follows：
SDSF (a, h)=SDSF (a) F (a, h)；
Preferably, the mesh of this step is water logging situation outside the earthquake overlap paid close attention to according to factory site, calculates earthquake intensity a's
Occurrence frequency F (a), power plant the conditional probability D that corresponding different exterior water logging height h occur under different shockproofness a (a,
H), and then obtain factory site earthquake and cause the occurrence frequency F (a, h) of exterior water logging.
First, earthquake source information is arranged, specifically may refer to step S020, outside may be caused by identifying in all seismic origins
The seismic origin that water logging occurs, calculates the occurrence frequency F (a) of earthquake intensity a, factory site may be influenced in difference by calculating these seismic origins
The conditional probability for causing exterior water logging height h under earthquake intensity a.The step needs to carry out exterior water logging risk analysis, point
Analysis method is similar with Method of Seismic Hazard Assessment, specifically may refer to step S010.
Secondly, nuclear power plant site is both provided with protection and carries to control flood or wave, if protection, which carries, cannot keep stable, it is impossible to keep off
Flood, nuclear island are only possible to that water logging occurs.At this moment it will determine that condition of power plant's embankment in the case of water logging outside earthquake overlap is lost
Probability f (a, h) is imitated, i.e. power plant's embankment vulnerability degree is evaluated, and specific method can be found in step S030 and S040.
According to above step, water logging event occurrence frequency F (a, h) outside the earthquake overlap of factory site is most obtained at last.
The response analysis of water logging situation and quantification outside S300, nuclear power plant's earthquake overlap：In seismic Damage state accident sequence
Exterior water logging front end tree PSA models are established in the exterior water logging of superposition on the basis of occurring, obtain water logging front end tree outside earthquake overlap
PSA models；Quantification obtains the occurrence frequency CDF that water logging outside earthquake overlap directly results in reactor core damage accident sequence2(a,
H), water logging damages the generation frequency of state accident sequence outside the indirect earthquake overlap for causing reactor core to damage of water logging outside earthquake overlap
Rate SFDSF (a, h).
Preferably, in this step, the seismic response analysis of step S100 obtain it is indirect cause reactor core damage
On the basis of SDS, according to the analysis result of step S200, the influence of superposition different height outside water logging, passes through and considers that superposition is exterior
Origination event generation new in internal event PSA models or new main alleviation thrashing whether can be caused after water logging, established
Water logging front end tree PSA models outside earthquake overlap.Finally obtain water logging damage state thing outside the earthquake overlap for causing reactor core to damage
Therefore sequence, " water logging damage state accident sequence outside earthquake overlap " are hereinafter referred to as SFDS.
The sequence of events consequence of water logging front end tree also has three classes outside earthquake overlap：OK, reactor core damage (CD), internal event
PSA model origination events, it is specific as follows：
OK：Water logging does not influence power plant outside earthquake overlap.
CD：Water logging directly results in the SFDS of reactor core damage outside earthquake overlap.Pass through water logging front end tree outside earthquake overlap
Model, quantification obtain the occurrence frequency CDF that water logging outside earthquake overlap directly results in the SFDS of reactor core damage2(a, h).
Internal event PSA model origination events：The indirect SFDS for causing reactor core to damage.Reactor core damage is not directly resulted in,
But origination event in internal event PSA models is caused to occur.Pass through water logging front end tree PSA models, quantification outside earthquake overlap
The occurrence frequency SFDSF (a, h) of the indirect SFDS for causing reactor core to damage of water logging outside earthquake overlap is obtained, which connects
Connect the consideration of internal event PSA models.
CDF is obtained in quantification2During (a, h) and SFDSF (a, h), equally calculated using RS programs.
S400, calculate water logging risk outside nuclear power plant's earthquake overlap：Couple the internal event of power plant on the basis of SFDS
Model, core damage frequency CDF caused by quantification obtains SFDS sequences3(a, h), by equation below calculate earthquake intensity a,
The total core damage frequency CDF of nuclear power plant under exterior water logging height hAlways(a, h)：
CDFAlways(a, h)=CDF1(a)+CDF2(a, h)+CDF3(a, h).
Preferably, in this step, internal event model carries out generally power plant's internal event for a kind of nuclear power plant is existing
The PSA models of rate safety evaluation.The internal event model is on the basis of SFDS, with reference to the analysis result SFDSF of step S300
(a, h), core damage frequency CDF caused by quantification obtains SFDS sequences3(a, h).
By above-mentioned steps, the occurrence frequency CDF that earthquake directly results in reactor core damage accident sequence has been respectively obtained1(a)、
Water logging directly results in the occurrence frequency CDF of the SFDS of reactor core damage outside earthquake overlap2Reactor core caused by (a, h), SFDS sequences
Damage frequency CDF3The sum of (a, h), three is the core damage frequency that nuclear power plant is total under earthquake intensity a, exterior water logging height h
CDFAlways(a, h).
Fig. 2 shows the flow of another preferred embodiment of water logging methods of risk assessment outside nuclear power plant's earthquake overlap of the present invention
Schematic diagram, as shown in Fig. 2, in the present embodiment, on the basis of previous embodiment, also being wrapped between step S100 and step S200
Include step：
S150, site of nuclear power plant earthquake cause exterior water logging situation to identify：According to factory site feature, the outer of earthquake overlap is selected
Portion's water logging situation, the exterior water logging situation include astronomical tide, storm tide, tsunami, river dam break, heavy showers, seiche.Usual shadow
Ringing the single exterior water logging situation of nuclear power plant includes astronomical tide, storm tide, tsunami, river dam break, heavy showers, seiche etc., still
There are causal mainly tsunami, river dam break and seiche etc. with earthquake.According to factory site feature, it is necessary to which focal selection is different
Superposition situation is analyzed.For example, coastal site is primarily upon earthquake overlap tsunami, need to pay close attention to earthquake close to the factory site of rivers
Dam break etc. caused by possible.For the exterior water logging situation with earthquake noncausal relationship, usual two independent events occur general
Rate is relatively low, its risk level can generally be ignored.
In another preferred embodiment of the present invention, on the basis of previous embodiment, further included before step S100 as follows
Step：
S010, site of nuclear power plant seismic risk analysis：According to the seismic history of site of nuclear power plant, regional seismology, area
Domain geology content, obtains earthquake risk linearity curve.The purpose of seismic risk analysis be according to the seismic history in power plant factory site,
The seismology and geology related content in region, obtain earthquake risk linearity curve.Earthquake risk linearity curve, which is showed, determines seismologic parameter α
Surmount frequency, the year of earthquake α year under (the spectral acceleration Sa under such as peak ground acceleration PGA or given frequency and damping ratio)
Surmount the probability that all earthquake intensities in factory site area in the frequency representative calendar year are not less than X.This probability reflects the random of earthquake
Property, for example we cannot know when that next earthquake where can occur that to influence power plant we are only capable of being described with probability, i.e.,
The dangerous linearity curve of shake.Curvilinear abscissa is earthquake alpha parameter, is usually peak ground acceleration PGA or spectral acceleration Sa, indulges and sit
It is designated as surmounting frequency in year.
In addition, seismic risk analysis is usually obtained by probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) method.Seismic risk
Analysis includes 4 steps altogether：Source signature and evaluation, earthquake reproduction, ground motion attenuation relation and dangerous linearity curve, specific point
Analysis method refers to ERPI TR-1002989.In addition, except the randomness of earthquake mentioned above, due to earthquake answering in itself
Polygamy, to the finiteness of understanding of earthquakes and the limitation of data, there is also uncertain in seismic risk analysis, i.e., often
How is the confidence level of bar danger linearity curve.Usually probabilistic processing uses logic tree method, i.e., by one big problem by patrolling
The relation of collecting is gradually decomposed into the multiple minor issues easily solved.One PSHA logic tree might have multiple branches, each branch
Define a different dangerous linearity curve and an associated power is calculated according to the probability product of each branch node
Weight, the weight of all branches and for 100%.Weight represents the confidence level of the dangerous linearity curve of this.This is arrived, family can be obtained
Weight and the earthquake risk linearity curve for being 100%.
The arrangement and screening of Nuclear Power Plant Equipment inventory under S020, earthquake overlap outside water logging：Collect institute of nuclear power plant promisingly
The exterior water logging event of shake superposition provides structures, system and component list necessary to protection and mitigation capability.The part is intended to
Collect water logging event outside the promising earthquake overlap of institute of nuclear power plant and structures, system and portion necessary to protection and mitigation capability are provided
Part (SSC) inventory.If the SSC of non-security system is also included within involved by also having among the process of safe shutdown is realized
Among inventory.The part is the basis for carrying out the evaluation of earthquake vulnerability degree, the evaluation of device external water logging failure probability and network analysis,
It is most important to be to ensure that its integrality.
First, all safety-related equipment lists of power plant are arranged；On this basis, it is easy by conservative or general earthquake
Damage degree estimate (the low failure probability of high confidence level, HCLPF) and seismic risk analysis as a result, according to the tribute to Earthquake risk
Offer and earthquake equipment list is screened, screen out and be less likely failure (high anti-seismic capacity device) under those earthquakes or to earthquake wind
Danger influences little SSC, finally obtains earthquake equipment inventory (SEL) influential on Earthquake risk.Specific method refers to ERPI
TR-1002989。
Secondly, on the basis of SEL, supplementing exterior water logging event influences equipment.In SEL determination process, exterior water logging thing
The equipment (be submerged, intake block etc.) that part influences may be screened (such as high anti-seismic capacity device), in exterior water logging
In risk assessment, according to impact analysis, it is necessary to add again, it is ensured that water logging risk assessment equipment list outside earthquake overlap
Integrality.
The inventory finally obtained needs to be verified by power plant's visiting tour.
S030, the evaluation of Nuclear Power Plant Equipment earthquake vulnerability degree：According to power plant's Aseismic Design information, npp safety weight is evaluated
Conditional failure probability of structures, system and the component wanted under different earthquake intensity.Equipment vulnerability degree by family's weight and
Represent that curvilinear abscissa be earthquake alpha parameter for 100% " vulnerability degree curve ", be usually such as peak ground acceleration PGA or to give
Determine the spectral acceleration Sa under frequency and damping ratio, ordinate is conditional failure probability.
Water logging failure probability evaluation outside S040, Nuclear Power Plant Equipment：Calculate Nuclear Power Plant Equipment and flood failure probability and impact
Failure probability.Failure is flooded it is well understood that for example for electric kind equipment, if equipment is submerged completely, and special
Waterproof measure, then it is assumed that it fails, that is, loses its corresponding security function.For impact failure, it is necessary to the design for passing through equipment
Mechanics parameter, is calculated the impact failure probability of Nuclear Power Plant Equipment, and the process is similar with the method that earthquake vulnerability degree is evaluated.
Preferably, in another preferred embodiment of the present invention, Nuclear Power Plant Equipment earthquake vulnerability degree is evaluated in step S030
Realize in the following way, according to three earthquake vulnerability degree parameters：Intermediate value shock resistance Am, randomness βR, uncertainty βU, meter
Structures, system and component condition failure probability, the formula for calculating the security-critical under different earthquake intensity are as follows：
In formula：
Q=P [f<F ' | a] represent corresponding to subjective probabilitys of the conditional failure probability f of earthquake intensity a less than f '；
Φ-1[] represents the inverse of the standard accumulation Gaussian Profile of sash content.
Preferably, in another preferred embodiment of the present invention, it is general to flood failure for Nuclear Power Plant Equipment external water in step S040
Rate evaluation realizes in the following way, the identification of equipment failure water logging height and determines, conservative to think that water level reaches equipment failure
Water logging height, i.e. equipment failure probability are 1；
Not up to water logging height, carries out equipment hydrodynamic impact Failure Assessment, for the exterior water logging side such as tsunami, flood
Formula, according to three exterior water logging vulnerability degree parameters：Exterior water logging median elevation Hm, randomness γR, uncertainty γU, calculate
The structures of security-critical under different water logging height, system and component condition failure probability, formula are as follows：
In formula：
Q=P [f<F ' | h] represent corresponding to subjective probabilitys of the conditional failure probability f of water logging height h less than f '；
Φ-1[] represents the inverse of the standard accumulation Gaussian Profile of sash content.
The present invention has merged nuclear power plant's earthquake and exterior water logging risk assessment technology, and according to China CPR1000 type nuclear powers
Unit or similar unit design and the actual conditions of operation, creatively provide and a set of are directed to nuclear power plant's earthquake overlap external water
The technical method that situation carries out detailed Quantitative Risk Assessment is flooded, nuclear power plant's earthquake overlap external water is directed to for China nuclear power worker
Flood the strick precaution of situation and alleviate and risk opinion and decision-making foundation are provided.The technical method mainly causes exterior water logging by factory site earthquake
Situation identification, factory site seismic risk analysis, factory site earthquake cause exterior water logging occurrence frequency analysis, earthquake overlap outside water logging
Arrangement and screening, the evaluation of Nuclear Power Plant Equipment earthquake vulnerability degree, the water logging failure of Nuclear Power Plant Equipment outside of lower Nuclear Power Plant Equipment inventory
Water logging situation response analysis and quantitative outside probability assessment, nuclear power plant's seismic response analysis and quantification, nuclear power plant earthquake overlap
Several parts compositions such as change, establish probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) model by using RS programs widely used in the world, calculate core
The core damage frequency (CDF) of power plant's reactor under water logging outside earthquake overlap.
The earthquake overlap tsunami risk assessment of 1 nuclear power plant of embodiment
Nuclear power plant's earthquake overlap tsunami risk assessment processes
Fig. 3 shows the flow chart of nuclear power plant's earthquake overlap tsunami risk assessment processes.As shown in figure 3, nuclear power plant's earthquake
The risk assessment of superposition tsunami includes factory site seismic risk analysis, factory site earthquake causes the analysis of tsunami occurrence frequency, earthquake overlap
The arrangement of Nuclear Power Plant Equipment inventory and screening, the evaluation of Nuclear Power Plant Equipment earthquake vulnerability degree, Nuclear Power Plant Equipment tsunami rapid wear under tsunami
Degree evaluation, nuclear power plant's seismic response analysis and quantification, nuclear power plant's earthquake overlap tsunami situation response analysis and several portions of quantification
Point, it is specific as follows：
1. factory site seismic risk analysis
The purpose of part is to obtain earthquake risk linearity curve, referring specifically to hereinbefore step S010.
2. factory site earthquake causes tsunami occurrence frequency to be analyzed
Fig. 4 shows that present pre-ferred embodiments earthquake causes the earthquake overlap tsunami in tsunami methods of risk assessment to occur
Frequency analysis flow diagram.As shown in figure 4, the part need of work arranges the earthquake source information in seismic risk analysis,
Identify the seismic origin that tsunami may be caused to occur in all seismic origins, the varying strength in factory site may be influenced by calculating these seismic origins
Trigger the probability of different tsunami height under earthquake, summary information, calculating factory site generation different earthquake intensity causes different seas
The conditional probability of howl height, and then obtain factory site earthquake and cause the occurrence frequency of tsunami.
3. the arrangement and screening of Nuclear Power Plant Equipment inventory under earthquake overlap tsunami
The part is intended to obtain provides protection against necessary structures, system and component for earthquake overlap tsunami event
(SSC) inventory, referring specifically to hereinbefore step S020.
4. Nuclear Power Plant Equipment earthquake vulnerability degree is evaluated
The conditional failure probability of the part purport computing device under different earthquake, referring specifically to hereinbefore step S030.
5. failure probability is evaluated under Nuclear Power Plant Equipment tsunami situation
Situation occurs for tsunami, it should tsunami vulnerability degree evaluation is carried out to nuclear power plant's breakwater first, calculates breakwater
Conditional failure probability under varying strength earthquake overlap difference tsunami altitudes, while need to consider tsunami impact force shadow
Ring., it is necessary to assess the corresponding nuclear power plant's water logging height of different tsunami wave heights and nuclear power plant closes in the case of breakwater fails
The failure water logging height of button apparatus, the vulnerability degree evaluation of equipment hydrodynamic impact Failure Assessment, the availability of analytical equipment, specifically
Referring to hereinbefore step S040.
6. nuclear power plant's seismic response analysis and quantification
The part is intended to by establishing earthquake front end tree-model come influence of the modelling earthquake for nuclear power plant, progress quantification
Calculate, referring specifically to hereinbefore step S100.
7. nuclear power plant's earthquake overlap tsunami situation response analysis and quantification
The seismic Damage state obtained for seismic response analysis, origination event and master caused by analysis superposition tsunami is possible
Alleviate thrashing, earthquake overlap tsunami faulted condition and corresponding occurrence frequency are obtained, referring specifically to hereinbefore step S300.
Method compatibility
Water logging risk assessment uses probabilistic safety assessment method outside earthquake overlap.With embodiment earthquake overlap tsunami event
Exemplified by, it is the superposition of Probability of Earthquake safety evaluation (SPSA) method and tsunami probabilistic safety assessment (TPSA) method.By dividing
Earthquake and tsunami front end tree PSA models are not established, are attached with internal event PSA models, while according to equipment earthquake or sea
Howl vulnerability degree evaluation result carries out quantitative analysis.
SPSA methods are made of key elements such as seismic risk analysis, the evaluation of earthquake vulnerability degree, network analyses.TPSA methods by
The key elements such as tsunami risk analysis, the evaluation of tsunami vulnerability degree, network analysis form, and two methods are in analysis process and modeling approach
It is upper similar, and by RS Procedure modelings, thus outside earthquake overlap water logging probabilistic safety assessment be in method can be compatible
's.The emphasis of SPSA methods and TPSA method overlap-add procedures is correlation, because not being between each key element of SPSA and TPSA
Independent, it is relevant, can correlation, which be handled well, between key element is directly related to compatible quality, is also related to the matter of model
Amount.The present invention has handled correlation well by the application of " year surmounts frequency " and " conditional probability " method, tsunami such as is endangered
Any problem is not present in connection between the key element such as dangerous analysis and seismic risk analysis, so as to ensure that analysis method and result
Correctness.
Claims (5)
1. water logging methods of risk assessment outside a kind of nuclear power plant's earthquake overlap, it is characterised in that include the following steps：
S100, nuclear power plant's seismic response analysis and quantification：Analyzed by fault tree/Event Tree Method and responded under nuclear power plant's earthquake
Whether situation, including earthquake can cause nuclear power plant that the earthquake that system is mainly alleviated in the event generation, nuclear power plant that reactor core damages occurs
Influence；Earthquake front end tree-model is established, quantification obtains the hair that earthquake under earthquake intensity a directly results in reactor core damage accident sequence
Raw frequency CDF1(a), the occurrence frequency SDSF (a) of the indirect seismic Damage state accident sequence for causing reactor core to damage of earthquake；
S200, site of nuclear power plant earthquake cause exterior water logging occurrence frequency to be analyzed：By equation below with calculating site of nuclear power plant
Shake causes exterior water logging occurrence frequency F (a, h):
F (a, h)=F (a) D (a, h) f (a, h)
In formula,
F (a) represents the occurrence frequency of earthquake intensity a；
D (a, h) represents the conditional probability that earthquake intensity a lower outer portion water logging height h occurs；
F (a, h) represents the conditional failure probability of power plant's embankment under the exterior water logging height h of earthquake intensity a superpositions；
Then, quantification obtains the frequency SDSF (a, h) that the exterior water logging of seismic Damage state accident sequence superposition occurs, and formula is such as
Under：
SDSF (a, h)=SDSF (a) F (a, h)
The response analysis of water logging situation and quantification outside S300, nuclear power plant's earthquake overlap：It is superimposed in seismic Damage state accident sequence
Exterior water logging front end tree-model is established in exterior water logging on the basis of occurring, obtain water logging front end tree-model outside earthquake overlap；It is fixed
Quantify to obtain the occurrence frequency CDF that water logging outside earthquake overlap directly results in reactor core damage accident sequence2(a, h), earthquake overlap
Exterior water logging is indirect cause the occurrence frequency SFDSF of water logging damage state accident sequence outside the earthquake overlap that reactor core damages (a,
h)；
S400, calculate water logging risk outside nuclear power plant's earthquake overlap：The water logging damage state accident sequence basis outside earthquake overlap
The internal event model of upper connection power plant, core damage frequency CDF caused by quantification obtains SFDS sequences3(a, h), by such as
Lower formula calculates the core damage frequency CDF that nuclear power plant is total under earthquake intensity a, exterior water logging height hAlways(a, h)：
CDFAlways(a, h)=CDF1(a)+CDF2(a, h)+CDF3(a, h).
2. water logging methods of risk assessment outside nuclear power plant's earthquake overlap according to claim 1, it is characterised in that the step
Further included before rapid S200：
S150, site of nuclear power plant earthquake cause exterior water logging situation to identify：According to factory site feature, the external water of earthquake overlap is selected
Situation is flooded, the exterior water logging situation includes astronomical tide, storm tide, tsunami, river dam break, heavy showers, seiche.
3. water logging methods of risk assessment outside nuclear power plant's earthquake overlap according to claim 1, it is characterised in that the step
Following steps are further included before rapid S100：
S010, site of nuclear power plant seismic risk analysis：According to the seismic history of site of nuclear power plant, regional seismology, region
Matter content, obtains earthquake risk linearity curve；
The arrangement and screening of Nuclear Power Plant Equipment inventory under S020, earthquake overlap outside water logging：The promising earthquake of institute of nuclear power plant is collected to fold
Exterior water logging event is added to provide structures, system and component list necessary to protection and mitigation capability；
S030, the evaluation of Nuclear Power Plant Equipment earthquake vulnerability degree：According to power plant's Aseismic Design information, it is important to evaluate npp safety
The conditional failure probability of structures, system and component under different earthquake intensity；
Water logging failure probability evaluation outside S040, Nuclear Power Plant Equipment：Calculate Nuclear Power Plant Equipment and flood failure probability and impact failure
Probability.
4. water logging methods of risk assessment outside nuclear power plant's earthquake overlap according to claim 3, it is characterised in that the step
Rapid S030 includes：
According to three earthquake vulnerability degree parameters：Intermediate value shock resistance Am, randomness βR, uncertainty βU, it is strong to calculate different earthquake
Structures, system and component condition failure probability, the formula for spending the security-critical under a are as follows：
In formula：
Q=P [f<F ' | a] represent corresponding to subjective probabilitys of the conditional failure probability f of earthquake intensity a less than f '；
Φ-1[] represents the inverse of the standard accumulation Gaussian Profile of sash content.
5. water logging methods of risk assessment outside nuclear power plant's earthquake overlap according to claim 3, it is characterised in that the step
Rapid S040 includes：
The identification of equipment failure water logging height and definite, conservative to think that water level reaches equipment failure water logging highly, i.e. equipment failure
Probability is 1；
Not up to fail water logging height, carries out equipment hydrodynamic impact Failure Assessment, for tsunami, water logging mode outside flood,
According to three exterior water logging vulnerability degree parameters：Exterior water logging median elevation Hm, randomness γR, uncertainty γU, calculate difference
The structures of security-critical under exterior water logging height h, system and component condition failure probability, formula are as follows：
In formula：
Q=P [f<F ' | h] represent corresponding to subjective probabilitys of the conditional failure probability f of exterior water logging height h less than f '；
Φ-1[] represents the inverse of the standard accumulation Gaussian Profile of sash content.
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