CN104881754A - Currency type quantitative risk transformer life-cycle management auxiliary decision system - Google Patents
Currency type quantitative risk transformer life-cycle management auxiliary decision system Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a currency type quantitative risk transformer life-cycle management auxiliary decision system including a transformer basic state information input end, a transformer risk analysis management end, a transformer service life analysis management end, a transformer auxiliary decision analysis end, and an analysis result output end. On the basis of the engineering application of equipment aged theory, through the combination with the characteristic state quantity diagnosis technology of equipment and practical experiences, and through the discovery of the hidden rules of information related to the equipment, the variation trend of equipment states is disclosed, and the states and risks of the equipment are represented by quantitative indexes (e.g. health indexes, failure rates, residual life, or risk values), the corresponding variation trend can be predicted, risks can be comprehensively evaluated from the point of LCC, so that the effective technological support for the optimized development of maintenance strategies, technical improvement, and investment programs is provided for electric power enterprises.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of transformer whole-life cycle fee aid decision-making system of currency formula weight wind transmission danger.
Background technology
At present, domestic each large electric power enterprise totally performs the preventative maintenance strategy based on cycled recondition.Although the risk assessment of each large electric power enterprise to transformer has in recent years had certain concern, on the whole still based on cycled recondition, risk assessment has been auxiliary repair method.The method has the following disadvantages: the blindness that (1) overhauls causes the reduction of labour productivity; (2) because of the probability stopping adding in power transmission operating process maloperation that inspection and repair shop causes; (3) maintenance workload in certain hour is caused suddenly to increase; (4) frequent and meaningless dismounting, bad site examining and repairing condition cause the probability of device damage to strengthen, and add in maintenance process the possibility producing new hidden trouble of equipment.As can be seen here, the method existence maintenance is frequent, workload is large, the cost of overhaul is high, very easily causes excessively maintenance or overhauls the drawbacks such as not enough, being more and more not suitable with the requirement of Under the market economy condition power industry development.
In recent years, although life cycle cost management (Life cycle cost, LCC) is also more and more by the concern of each large electric power enterprise, but still be difficult to well combine with risk assessment.Plant life cycle cost LCC comprises the manufacturing cost that the expenses such as lectotype selection, design, manufacture, test and marketing are formed, and comprises again operation, operating cost that maintenance, energy consumption, insurance, risk, expense of overhauling and to scrap etc. are formed.Therefore, Utilities Electric Co., while carrying out repair based on condition of component, also must weigh every factors such as the surplus value of equipment, the cost of overhaul, business capital and Personnel Resources, realize the maximizing the benefits of equipment control.
Meanwhile, along with the development of the new technologies such as various live monitoring, detection, fault diagnosis and equipment evaluation, Condition Maintenance Technology of Transformer and life cycle cost management obtain and develop fast, show slightly delayed in contrast thereto in economic management of equipment architectural study and construction.Manage as core with state evaluation and life cycle cost herein, on the basis of risk assessment, act on equipment replacement Economic optimization principle, set forth and net present value analysis method is applied in the process of Condition Maintenance Method of Transformer decision-making, for repair based on condition of component strategy provides auxiliary theoretical foundation.
In sum, existing venture analysis and cost management method can not meet economic management strategy equipment being carried out to optimal management preferably, domesticly yet do not form the whole-life cycle fee aid decision-making system quantized with the risk of the form of currency to transformer.
Summary of the invention
In view of this, the object of this invention is to provide a kind of transformer whole-life cycle fee aid decision-making system of currency formula weight wind transmission danger, help apparatus manager the risk of transformer and miscellaneous equipment and capital fund can be carried out direct comparative analysis, formulate the transformer management of investment strategy of science, optimization more further.
The object of the invention is to be achieved through the following technical solutions:
The transformer whole-life cycle fee aid decision-making system of this currency formula weight wind transmission danger, comprises transformer foundation status information input end, transformer venture analysis management end, transformer life analysis management end, transformer decision Analysis end and analysis result output terminal;
Described transformer foundation status information input end is used for input transformer base state information, by network connection and transformer venture analysis management end, transformer life analysis management end is connected, realize information transmission and process, described transformer foundation information input terminal comprises transformer producer basic information module, transformer environmental information module, transformer defect information module, Accident of Transformer information module, transformer daily load information module, transformer oil chromatographic information module, transformer oil information module, bushing shell for transformer information module and transformer prerun information module,
Described transformer venture analysis management end comprises transformer electric network performance venture analysis module, transformer personal safety venture analysis module, transformer rehabilitation cost venture analysis module, transformer environmental impact venture analysis module and transformer risk integrative analysis module are formed, described transformer electric network performance venture analysis module, transformer personal safety venture analysis module, transformer rehabilitation cost venture analysis module and transformer environmental impact venture analysis module are by data link transformer risk integrative analysis module, described transformer venture analysis management end is by network connection connection transformer Back ground Information input end and transformer decision Analysis end respectively,
Described transformer life analysis management end comprises Back ground Information analysis module, status information analysis module, aging life-span analysis module and Residual Life module composition, described Back ground Information analysis module is connected with aging life-span analysis module respectively with status information analysis module, the input end of described transformer life analysis management end is connected with transformer foundation status information input end by serial common data bus, obtain transformer foundation information and state performance information, be input to transformer foundation information analysis module, status information analysis module exports unified standard data after carrying out confluence analysis, be input to again after analyzing in aging life-span analysis module and Residual Life module and export analysis result data, the output terminal of described transformer life analysis management end carries out communication by system bus and transformer decision Analysis end,
Described transformer decision Analysis end comprises transformer fault property analysis module, transformer loss analysis module, maintenance order and grade analysis module, decision recommendation and economic analysis module and integrated logic analysis module, described transformer fault property analysis module, transformer loss analysis module, maintenance order and grade analysis module, decision recommendation and economic analysis module data link integrated logic analysis module, described transformer decision Analysis end by network connection respectively with transformer venture analysis management end, transformer life analysis management end and analysis result output terminal are connected,
Described analysis result output terminal comprises result display platform and print platform, and described analysis result output terminal is connected with transformer decision Analysis management end by network connection.
Further, described network connection is RJ45 connecting line.
The invention has the beneficial effects as follows:
The present invention carries out analysis and the quantification of money-form to the risk of transformer from electric network reliability performance, personal safety, rehabilitation cost and environmental impact four aspects, analyze net result and for the overhaul technological transformation of electric power enterprise provide aid decision making to advise and reach the comprehensive economy analysis of Expected Results.By the quantitative test of transformer fault probability of happening and failure effect, show that transformer is in the current and following risk variation tendency, realize the analysis of transformer risk, by transformer capital fund net present value (NPV) and the old and new's transformer loss parameter comparison, net result adopts monetary unit to quantize, and consistent quantization unit between other type equipment and transformer capital fund, there is direct comparability, make transformer fault property analysis and transformer loss comparative analysis according to result simultaneously, finally obtain the optimization of transformer maintenance order and rank, the economic analysis of maintenance technological transformation aid decision making suggestion and Expected Results, compensate for the defect and deficiency that exist in current device methods of risk assessment, be conducive to the formulation of assist power enterprise more to optimize, economic equipment middle and long-term investments planning, thus play the economic benefit of business capital to greatest extent.
Other advantages of the present invention, target and feature will be set forth to a certain extent in the following description, and to a certain extent, based on will be apparent to those skilled in the art to investigating hereafter, or can be instructed from the practice of the present invention.Target of the present invention and other advantages can be realized by instructions below and claims and be obtained.
Accompanying drawing explanation
In order to make the object, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention clearly, below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, the present invention is described in further detail, wherein:
Fig. 1 is system construction drawing of the present invention.
Embodiment
Hereinafter with reference to accompanying drawing, the preferred embodiments of the present invention are described in detail.Should be appreciated that preferred embodiment only in order to the present invention is described, instead of in order to limit the scope of the invention.
As shown in Figure 1, system comprises transformer foundation status information input end 1, transformer venture analysis management end 11, transformer life analysis management end 17, transformer decision Analysis end 22 and analysis result output terminal 28;
Transformer foundation status information input end 1 is for input transformer base state information, by network connection and transformer venture analysis management end 11, transformer life analysis management end 17 is connected, realize information transmission and process, transformer foundation information input terminal 1 comprises transformer producer basic information module 2, transformer environmental information module 3, transformer defect information module 4, Accident of Transformer information module 5, transformer daily load information module 6, transformer oil chromatographic information module 7, transformer oil information module 8, bushing shell for transformer information module 9 and transformer prerun information module 10,
Transformer venture analysis management end 11 comprises transformer electric network performance venture analysis module 12, transformer personal safety venture analysis module 13, transformer rehabilitation cost venture analysis module 14, transformer environmental impact venture analysis module 15 and transformer risk integrative analysis module 16 are formed, transformer electric network performance venture analysis module 12, transformer personal safety venture analysis module 13, transformer rehabilitation cost venture analysis module 14 and transformer environmental impact venture analysis module 15 are by data link transformer risk integrative analysis module 16, transformer venture analysis management end is by network connection connection transformer Back ground Information input end 1 and transformer decision Analysis end 22 respectively,
Transformer life analysis management end 17 comprises Back ground Information analysis module 18, status information analysis module 19, aging life-span analysis module 20 and Residual Life module 21 and forms.The input end of transformer life analysis management end 17 is connected with transformer foundation status information input end 1 by serial common data bus, obtain transformer foundation information and state performance information, be input to transformer foundation information analysis module, status information analysis module carry out exporting unified standard data after confluence analysis, then be input to analyze in aging life-span analysis module and Residual Life module after export analysis result data; The output terminal of transformer life analysis management end 17 carries out communication by system bus and transformer decision Analysis end 22;
Transformer decision Analysis end 22 comprises transformer fault property analysis module 23, transformer loss analysis module 24, maintenance order and grade analysis module 25, decision recommendation and economic analysis module 26 and integrated logic analysis module 27, transformer fault property analysis module 23, transformer loss analysis module 24, maintenance order and grade analysis module 25, decision recommendation and economic analysis module 26 data link integrated logic analysis module 27, transformer decision Analysis end 22 by network connection respectively with transformer venture analysis management end, transformer life analysis management end and analysis result output terminal are connected, transformer decision Analysis end 22 possesses transformer fault property analysis, transformer loss comparative analysis, the analysis of maintenance of equipment order and rank, the economic analysis function of maintenance technological transformation aid decision making suggestion and Expected Results, this analysis end bonding apparatus health status (comprising the health status of prediction), equipment Risk priority index, external constraint (safety, environment, budget etc.), the maintenance order of optimized device, maintenance level, and by overhaul of the equipments directive/guide, the introducing of quota, determine the maintenance items of equipment, time (or detect, follow the tracks of project and the frequency of retrial) and residual life, mix maintenance technological transformation aid decision making proposed projects and Expected Results, the correlativity of assessment investment and equipment state, and correlated results is sent to relevant external system.
Analysis result output terminal 28 comprises result display platform 29 and print platform 30, and analysis result output terminal is connected with transformer decision Analysis management end by network connection.
In the present invention, network connection is RJ45 connecting line.
The course of work of native system is as follows: transformer foundation status information input end 1 is connected with transformer venture analysis management end 11, by the transformer producer basic information module 2 in transformer foundation status information input end 1, transformer environmental information module 3, transformer defect information module 4, Accident of Transformer information module 5, transformer daily load information module 6, transformer oil chromatographic information module 7, transformer oil information module 8, input transformer base state information in bushing shell for transformer information module 9 and transformer prerun information module 10, transformer electric network performance information module 12 in transformer venture analysis management end 11, transformer personal safety venture analysis module 13, transformer rehabilitation cost venture analysis module 14, transformer environmental impact venture analysis module 15 and transformer risk integrative analysis module 16 carry out transformer venture analysis calculating, in like manner, by the Back ground Information analysis module 18 of transformer foundation status information in transformer life analysis management end 17, status information analysis module 19, aging life-span analysis module 20 and Residual Life module 21 carry out the durability analysis of transformer, then the venture analysis result of transformer and durability analysis result are input to the transformer fault property analysis module 23 in transformer decision Analysis end 22, transformer loss analysis module 24, maintenance order and grade analysis module 25, decision recommendation and economic analysis module 26 and integrated logic analysis module 27 carry out decision Analysis and arrange out result, this result is by the display platform 29 of Network transmission line in analysis result output terminal 28 the most at last, print platform 30 realizes result to be shown, inquiry and printing function.
The invention solves following technical matters:
1) data standard disunity between each transformer infosystem is solved, data between each platform cannot realize the problem shared, set up unified facility information storehouse, collect transformer foundation account information, operation information, Test Information, defect and failure message in a unified platform, for exploitation provides perfect Information base based on the transformer whole-life cycle fee aid decision-making system of risk assessment.
2) the transformer health status of complete set and the evaluation computational algorithm of fault rate is provided, for health status and the fault rate of calculating transformer, for the maintenance of transformer and the formulation of overhaul technological transformation plan provide aid decision making.
Concrete implementation example:
The sulfur hexafluoride transformer of 220kV transformer station of certain power supply administration runs the time limit and reaches 15 years, and be on active service between 15 years at this transformer, power supply administration adopts the method for sulfur hexafluoride gas being carried out to periodic sampling always, to grasping the operating condition of transformer.The error produced due to the method for sampling and the test period longer, in the past few years, power supply administration takes and to have a power failure and the measure such as filter gas is safeguarded this transformer, consumes a large amount of human and material resources and financial resources are overhauled this transformer, but income is very micro-.In order to the operating condition of this transformer of Efficient Evaluation, to provide efficient maintenance scheme, system of the present invention is adopted to assess this transformer.
By collecting the logout of this transformer, adopt the risk of the present invention to transformer to analyze, and finally make aid decision making suggestion.Specific implementation method is as follows:
1, each module that all base state information of transformer are input in transformer foundation status information input end 1 is stored;
2, by the data stored in transformer foundation status information input end 1 by the transformer electric network performance venture analysis module 12 that Network transmission line passes in transformer venture analysis management end 11 draw this transformer in electric network performance sub-risk risk $3,569,249;
3, by the data stored in transformer foundation status information input end 1 by the transformer personal safety venture analysis module 13 that Network transmission line passes in transformer venture analysis management end 11 draw this transformer in personal safety sub-risk risk $258,392;
4, by the data stored in transformer foundation status information input end 1 by the transformer rehabilitation cost venture analysis module 14 that Network transmission line passes in transformer venture analysis management end 11 draw this transformer in rehabilitation cost sub-risk risk $6,256;
5, by the data stored in transformer foundation status information input end 1 by the transformer environmental impact venture analysis module 15 that Network transmission line passes in transformer venture analysis management end 11 draw this transformer in environmental impact sub-risk risk $42,406;
6, transformer electric network performance venture analysis module 12, transformer personal safety venture analysis module 13, the analysis result of transformer rehabilitation cost analysis module 14 and transformer environmental impact venture analysis module 15 is sent into transformer risk integrative analysis module 16 and is carried out integrated logic computing, the current overall risk drawing this transformer is $3,876,303;
7, passed to by Network transmission line by the corresponding data stored in transformer foundation status information input end 1 in Back ground Information analysis module 18, status information analysis module 19, aging life-span analysis module 20 and the Residual Life module 21 in transformer life analysis management end 17 and analyze, the analysis result obtained is specific as follows:
(1) operating condition data: current 5.37, following 5th year 7.25.Show that current transformer technical feature is not good, need to take certain maintenance scheme to guarantee its stable operation, and if do not take any measure, transformer is the technical feature of following 5th year by severe exacerbation, and the possibility broken down strengthens;
(2) fault type data: current non-fault type, future transformer corona discharge fault may occur in the 5th year;
(3) failure cause data: current non-fault reason, following 5th year failure cause are sulfur hexafluoride gas gas leakage;
(4) likelihood of failure data: 0.76.Show that transformer is 0.76 at the probability of following 5th year generation Superheated steam drier;
(5) fault progression trend data: arc discharge.After showing following 5th year, future takes scheme, and transformer Arcing fault may occur;
(6) troubleshooting methods: whether checking leaks gas, and checks whether each sealing mechanism seals really.
8, result transformer venture analysis management end 11 and transformer life analysis management end 17 analyzed is transferred to through network connection in transformer fault property analysis module 23, transformer loss analysis module 24, maintenance order and grade analysis module 25 in transformer decision Analysis end 22, decision recommendation and economic analysis module 26 and integrated logic analysis module 27 and analyzes, as follows for 110kV A 2# main transformer, 110kV B the stand analysis result of 1# main transformer of 2# main transformer and 110kV C of standing of standing:
The state performance index of 110kV A station 2# main transformer is 2.53, and fault rate is 0.12, and remaining life is 14.82, and operation risk is 14625 yuan, shows the in good condition of current transformer, only needs to maintain line service;
The state performance index of 110kV B station 2# main transformer is 0.83, and fault rate is 0.04, and remaining life is 31.36, operation risk is 848270 yuan, show that the time that current transformer puts into operation is very short, state is very good, only needs to maintain routine work;
The stand state performance index of 1# main transformer of 110kV C is 5.78, and fault rate is 0.63, and remaining life is 6.17, and operation risk is 32785 yuan, and show that this transformer time of putting into operation is longer, this transformer is about to after following 2 years retired.Maintenance solution analysis and Replacing Scheme analysis are carried out to this transformer, as follows:
Scheme one: carry out large repairs to transformer for the 4th year in future, total cost is 1,000,000 yuan.After overhaul, transformer state performance number is 3, effectively improves the runnability of transformer, but high cost.
Scheme two: according to Replacing Scheme analysis, determines within the 5th year, to change this transformer in future, can average out, obtain optimum economic benefit between replacement cost and operation risk.Total replacement cost is 904,588 yuan.
Finally determine to take scheme two, future is changed transformer on the 5th year.
9, the result of each module analysis of transformer decision Analysis end 22 is input to display platform 29 in analysis result output terminal 28 and print platform 30 through Network transmission line and realizes the displaying of result, inquiry and printing.
What finally illustrate is, above embodiment is only in order to illustrate technical scheme of the present invention and unrestricted, although with reference to preferred embodiment to invention has been detailed description, those of ordinary skill in the art is to be understood that, can modify to technical scheme of the present invention or equivalent replacement, and not departing from aim and the scope of the technical program, it all should be encompassed in the middle of right of the present invention.
Claims (2)
1. the transformer whole-life cycle fee aid decision-making system of currency formula weight wind transmission danger, is characterized in that: system comprises transformer foundation status information input end (1), transformer venture analysis management end (11), transformer life analysis management end (17), transformer decision Analysis end (22) and analysis result output terminal (28);
Described transformer foundation status information input end (1) is for input transformer base state information, by network connection and transformer venture analysis management end (11), transformer life analysis management end (17) is connected, realize information transmission and process, described transformer foundation information input terminal (1) comprises transformer producer basic information module (2), transformer environmental information module (3), transformer defect information module (4), Accident of Transformer information module (5), transformer daily load information module (6), transformer oil chromatographic information module (7), transformer oil information module (8), bushing shell for transformer information module (9) and transformer prerun information module (10),
Described transformer venture analysis management end (11) comprises transformer electric network performance venture analysis module (12), transformer personal safety venture analysis module (13), transformer rehabilitation cost venture analysis module (14), transformer environmental impact venture analysis module (15) and transformer risk integrative analysis module (16) are formed, described transformer electric network performance venture analysis module (12), transformer personal safety venture analysis module (13), transformer rehabilitation cost venture analysis module (14) and transformer environmental impact venture analysis module (15) are by data link transformer risk integrative analysis module (16), described transformer venture analysis management end is by network connection connection transformer Back ground Information input end (1) and transformer decision Analysis end (22) respectively,
Described transformer life analysis management end (17) comprises Back ground Information analysis module (18), status information analysis module (19), aging life-span analysis module (20) and Residual Life module (21) are formed, the input end of described transformer life analysis management end (17) is connected with transformer foundation status information input end (1) by serial common data bus, obtain transformer foundation information and state performance information, be input to transformer foundation information analysis module, status information analysis module exports unified standard data after carrying out confluence analysis, be input to again after analyzing in aging life-span analysis module and Residual Life module and export analysis result data, the output terminal of described transformer life analysis management end (17) carries out communication by system bus and transformer decision Analysis end (22),
Described transformer decision Analysis end (22) comprises transformer fault property analysis module (23), transformer loss analysis module (24), maintenance order and grade analysis module (25), decision recommendation and economic analysis module (26) and integrated logic analysis module (27), described transformer fault property analysis module (23), transformer loss analysis module (24), maintenance order and grade analysis module (25), decision recommendation and economic analysis module (26) data link integrated logic analysis module (27), described transformer decision Analysis end (22) by network connection respectively with transformer venture analysis management end, transformer life analysis management end and analysis result output terminal are connected,
Described analysis result output terminal (28) comprises result display platform (29) and print platform (30), and described analysis result output terminal is connected with transformer decision Analysis management end by network connection.
2. the transformer whole-life cycle fee aid decision-making system of currency formula weight wind transmission danger according to claim 1, is characterized in that: described network connection is RJ45 connecting line.
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| CN105117985A (en) * | 2015-09-11 | 2015-12-02 | 中国石油化工股份有限公司 | Systematization method for equipment defect management for oil refining enterprises |
| CN109919394A (en) * | 2019-03-29 | 2019-06-21 | 沈阳天眼智云信息科技有限公司 | Power transformer method for predicting residual useful life |
| CN110874803A (en) * | 2019-11-28 | 2020-03-10 | 郑州力通水务有限公司 | Water affair decision auxiliary analysis system |
| CN115936535A (en) * | 2023-01-10 | 2023-04-07 | 佰聆数据股份有限公司 | Method, device, equipment and medium for improving service cycle of power transformer |
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| CN105117985A (en) * | 2015-09-11 | 2015-12-02 | 中国石油化工股份有限公司 | Systematization method for equipment defect management for oil refining enterprises |
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| CN110874803A (en) * | 2019-11-28 | 2020-03-10 | 郑州力通水务有限公司 | Water affair decision auxiliary analysis system |
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Application publication date: 20150902 |