CN104778375B - A kind of submarine cable risk assessment probability analysis method of classification quantitative - Google Patents
A kind of submarine cable risk assessment probability analysis method of classification quantitative Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention belongs to submarine cable field of engineering technology, and in particular to a kind of submarine cable risk assessment probability analysis method of classification quantitative.It passes through the comprehensive analysis to bad border residing for submarine cable; pick out the risk source of submarine cable; classification, the risk assessment probabilistic model quantified are set up for main hazard source; the accident reproduction phase of submarine cable in the case of different protections is can be calculated by model; solves the problems such as human risks, especially anchor evil risk probability calculates; by assessing the classification quantitative of submarine cable engineering risk; the protection scheme of submarine cable can be formulated with a definite target in view; the security reliability of submarine cable operation is improved, there is significant economic and social benefit.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to submarine cable field of engineering technology, and in particular to a kind of submarine cable risk assessment of classification quantitative
Probability analysis method.
Background technology
With implementing in full for the technological progress and economic development in China, particularly national " "Oceanic" strategy ", submarine cable
The characteristics of fast development is presented in power transmission engineering in recent years.Submarine cable engineering be commonly connected straits both sides power network or continent to
The important channel of island power supply, often involve great expense, repairing of constructing it is extremely complex, once breaking down, system is by off-the-line, consequence
Seriously.Therefore, the safe and reliable operation of submarine cable is most important.
In project engineering stage, the risk source that accurate judgement cable faces, the risk class that effectively assessment cable faces close
Project inputs and engineering put into operation after cable safe operation.
Domestic and international submarine cable engineering, often with reference to engineering experiences such as petroleum pipelines, takes whole machinery to protect in early construction
Shield or the method do not protected.This way does not combine with practical risk situation, also not to risk situation, risk probability
Carry out quantum chemical method.Therefore, although having some built submarine cable engineerings both at home and abroad, really it is directed to submarine cable wind
The work that development is assessed in danger is few, almost without the experience that can directly use for reference.
Based on this, it is necessary to the marine environment faced for submarine cable, with reference to submarine cable self-characteristic, to seabed electricity
The risk source of cable is recognized, and proposes a kind of submarine cable risk assessment probability analysis method of classification quantitative.
The content of the invention
The purpose of the present invention is exactly insufficient existing for above-mentioned background technology in order to solve, there is provided a kind of seabed of classification quantitative
Cable risk assessment probability analysis method.This method is based on the basis of being recognized to the risk source that submarine cable faces
The concept of risk, propose the probability analysis computational methods for different risk sources.
The technical solution adopted by the present invention is：A kind of submarine cable risk assessment probability analysis method of classification quantitative, bag
Include following steps：
(1) according to the geography and geological environment at Submarine Cable Laying, the risk source of submarine cable is determined；
(2) statistical analysis is carried out to the risk source of submarine cable, obtains influenceing the main hazard source of submarine cable safety, bag
Include junk is hit, shipwreck is hit, it is stranded hit, drag anchor hits and falls anchor and hit；
(3) different types of main hazard source in step 2 is directed to, establishes classification, the risk evaluation model quantified respectively；
(4) risk evaluation model in different type main hazard source is solved, the risk in different type main hazard source is commented
Estimate model addition and obtain the accident reproduction phase.
Further, the geography in the step (1) at Submarine Cable Laying and geological environment include fishing ground environment, cable
The depth of water of situation, sanidal length and route that the frequent degree of the harbour marine activity of debarkation point, water route ship cast anchor.
Further, the risk source of submarine cable includes cable itself risk, natural risk and artificial in the step (1)
Risk, wherein：
Itself risk of the cable is risk caused by the type of submarine cable, material, structural factor；
The natural risk is subsea geological environment, risk caused by geological conditions factor, including submarine landslide, landslide,
Sediment movement and earthquake；
The human risks is mainly risk caused by the human activity of sea, comprising fish, cast anchor, drilling well, sea ship
Operation.
Further, establishing the risk evaluation model that junk is hit in the step (3) is：
P in formulahit,sl,rThe probability on submarine cable is hit for junk in the range of annual annular radius r；Phit,rTo hit
Probability in annular extent；LslFor the length of submarine cable in annular extent；D is submarine cable diameter, and B is junk width, Ar
The annulus area for being r for radius；
Wherein
Phit,r=P (ri＜ x≤r0)=P (x≤r0)-P(x≤ri)
P (x) is that falling object reaches sub-sea location and falls the probability density of the horizontal range x between drop point site in formula, and x is
The horizontal range that falling object is offset in seabed, δ are lateral shift distance, riFor the least radius in annular extent, r0For annular model
Enclose interior maximum radius.
Further, establishing the risk evaluation model that shipwreck is hit in the step (3) is：
F in formulaHitThe probability of submarine cable is hit for shipwreck；PaFor the ratio of Ship's Sinking, LsinkFor the ship for the ship that sinks
Long, S is the length of exposure of cable；AsinkCrucial shipwreck region area.
Further, the risk evaluation model for stranded shock being established in the step (3) is：
FHit=K1PShipPac
F in formulaHitThe probability of submarine cable is hit for annual stranded vessel；PacFor Calculation of Ship Grounding's Probability, K1To consider in electricity
The stranded modifying factor of cable region drift；PshipThe ratio of cable bad is can result in region for ship large-sized enough
Rate.
Further, establishing the risk evaluation model that drag anchor is hit in the step (3) is：
F in formulaHitThe probability of submarine cable is caught on for annual drag anchor；NshipHave anchoring can to route section by extra large cable
The quantity of the ship of energy；FDriftFor drift frequency；PHumanFor the probability not cast anchor；VshipFor speed of the ship in metres per second；α is to be anchored on sea
The length dragged before bottom；PHitTo fall the probability that anchor hits extra large cable every time.
Further, establishing the risk evaluation model that anchor is hit in the step (3) is：
FHit=NShipFDrift[1-PHumman]PLossPHit
F in formulaHitTo fall the probability that anchor hits submarine cable every year；NshipHave anchoring can to route section by extra large cable
The quantity of the ship of energy；FDriftFor drift frequency；PHumanFor the probability not cast anchor near extra large cable；PLossWhen operation of casting anchor
When, crewman is to the out of control probability of anchor；PHitTo fall the probability that anchor hits extra large cable every time.
The present invention picks out the risk source of submarine cable by the comprehensive analysis to bad border residing for submarine cable.For master
Want dangerous matter sources to set up classification, the risk assessment probabilistic model quantified, different protection situations can be calculated by model and plunge into the commercial sea
The accident reproduction phase of bottom cable.The present invention is first Application in the world in the risk assessment probability analysis method of submarine cable, weight
Point solves the problems such as human risks, especially anchor evil risk probability calculates.Pass through the sort capacity to submarine cable engineering risk
Change and assess, the protection scheme of submarine cable can be formulated with a definite target in view, improve the security reliability of submarine cable operation, have aobvious
The economic and social benefit of work.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is track schematic diagram of the junk in water.
Fig. 3 is offset distance schematic diagram of the junk in water.
Fig. 4 is the schematic diagram that submarine cable is hit by junk.
Fig. 5 is Atlantic Ocean communication cable damage reason schematic diagram.
Fig. 6 is accident probability contrast schematic diagram under Hainan interconnection project difference protection scheme.
Embodiment
The present invention is described in further detail with specific embodiment below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, is easy to that this hair is well understood
It is bright, but they do not form to the present invention and limited.
Submarine cable generally in connection with the main power network in both sides of the Straits, be laid in seabed, and systematic affinity is important while repair and maintenance
Difficulty, once the safe and stable operation of the main power network in both ends can be influenceed by breaking down.By taking Hainan interconnection project as an example, Hainan networking work
Journey is first, China super-pressure, long range, the networking project over strait of Large Copacity, in connection with south electric network major network and Hainan electricity
Net, status is important, simultaneously because submarine cable, across Qiongzhou Strait, sea frequent activity, marine environment are complicated, and Hainan is networked
The risk of engineering submarine cable carries out classification quantitative assessment, determines the risk class of submarine cable, targetedly formulates protection
Scheme is most important to the safe and stable operation of submarine cable.
A kind of submarine cable risk assessment probability analysis method of classification quantitative, comprises the following steps：
1st, according to the geography and geological environment at Submarine Cable Laying, the risk source of submarine cable is determined：
For different waters, different type of cables, damage reason is more scattered, and principal risk type also has larger difference
It is different.Fig. 5 show the reason for communication cable damage in the Atlantic Ocean.Cable in shallow sea is damaged than the cable of waterfront area by fishing gear
The risk of wound is bigger, and sea electric power cable is more much higher than very thin submarine communication cable intensity due to there is armouring protection, is subject to
Fish bite influence it is smaller.Other reasonses in Fig. 5 are mainly the influence caused by some local fried fish tartar souce, the operation of submarine cable
Experience have shown that most of extra large cables are disrumpent feelings be artificial origin caused by.
Understand that submarine cable dangerous matter sources mainly include extra large cable itself with reference to the application of countries in the world extra large cable, operation and accident conditions
Factor, natural risk and human risks.(1) extra large cable oneself factor.Submarine cable oneself factor includes：1) extra large cable type；2) it is extra large
Cable material；3) extra large cable structure.(2) natural risk.The natural risk that submarine cable is faced includes：1) submarine landslide；2) seabed
Landslide；3) sediment movement；4) seismic activity；5) wash away；6) biological factor.(3) human risks.Human risks includes：1) fish
Operation；2) cast anchor；3) dredging and (or) drilling well；4) subsea cable ship operation.Human risks can be categorized as junk and hit, sink
Ship hits, it is stranded hit, she drag anchor is hit, falls anchor hits medium form.
The natural calamities such as earthquake, landslide can destroy cable, but the main destructive factor of submarine cable is still
Mankind's activity, the failure of most of submarine communication cable and sea electric power cable is all as caused by the injury of fishing gear and anchor.
2nd, statistical analysis is carried out to the risk source of submarine cable, obtains influenceing the main hazard source of submarine cable safety：
Itself risk of 2.1 submarine cables
Submarine cable used in Hainan interconnection project is the oil-filled submarine cable of self-dissolving formula, and submarine cable armoring layer is by a formable layer
Cold-drawn flat type copper wire composition, for protecting cables from external mechanical damage, submarine cable itself risk factors are smaller.
2.2 submarine cable natural risks
Submarine cable path selection phase has avoided seabed frequent activity region, and the possibility that natural risk occurs is smaller,
So its chief destructive factor is the activity of the mankind.
2.3 submarine cable human risks
(1) junk risk
The junk fallen down from passing ships or neighbouring operation ship can cause the breakage of submarine cable.For example, to seabed
The maintenance of cable, the relevant ship built new submarine cable, build new harbour can all have the possibility of junk, and the kind of junk
Class is mainly building pipe, various containers and construction/maintained equipment.Because Hainan interconnection project extra large cable protection zone selection does not face
Nearly harbour, while pre- ditching protected mode is taken logging in end, therefore influenceed by port construction smaller.Container ship falls case
Event happens occasionally in shipping process, but is under extreme weather conditions.Qiongzhou Strait periphery snug anchorage enriches, big ton
The possibility that the container ship of position rank typically navigates by water in extreme circumstances is little, so the probability that the event occurs is very low.
(2) shipwreck risk
The accident that shipwreck causes cable and optical cable to fail is mostly that shipwreck discarded object moves under flow action and has influence on cable
And optical cable.The moving objects such as shipwreck are not present in Submarine Cable of Hainan Interconnection Project planning route, and are directly pounded after shipwreck
Risk on to cable is also very low.
(3) ship risk out of control
It is certain meteorological with hydrologic condition, because strong wind and the natural phenomena such as surge cause ship drift out of control, then
The event cast anchor is still existing, and this kind of rear ship to cast anchor out of control influences whether the security of submarine cable.Cause ship
The principal element of drift out of control is：Meteorological and water level condition causes ship to drift about；Ship itself is out of control.Out of control main of ship
Reason is that these ships produce the unexpected failure of car, rudder for various reasons, so that ship is out of control, it has to and take emergency brake to arrange
Apply.
The motion process of ship drift out of control can be divided into two stages, first, in the inertial deceleration stage, can be managed with inertial stopping distance
By analysis ship motion process, calculate relevant data；Second, with the trickling boat stage, can be analyzed according to the streamflow regime of setting
Calculate.By cable by marine site particularity, with the trickling boat stage because flow velocity and flow direction are uncertain, can not use accurate
Quantitative approach determines to drop down boat direction and position, and the inertial deceleration stage is the ship collision energy maximum stage.Therefore main consideration
The ship drift value in inertial deceleration stage, passes through the estimation of these drift values, it can be realized that ship potentially casts anchor possibility.
1) stroke, calculate when rushing
The time required to (T) refers to disappear to inertia since point out of control when rushing.Its big I is asked for by formula A-1：
In formula (A-1) V be ship in stroke interval, the ship's speed (m/s) of any time；V0For ship's speed of ship when initial
(m/s)；TstFor ship deceleration time constant, Tst=C/ln2, C can table look-up acquirement according to displacement, as shown in Table A -1.
Table A -1C is worth table
2) hydrostatic stroke (S ') refers to when rushing in T time, the distance that ship moves along ship's speed direction, formula A-2 can be used to count
Calculate.
For 5 tons and following ship, its stroke is less than 2nmile, for 10 tons and above ship its stroke
More than 2nmile.Under normal circumstances, the usual practice of flight-line design is that course line at least keeps horizontal with extra large cable prohibited area or protection zone
Away from 2nmile.By this usual way, 5 tons and following ship after out of control through inertial drift, when ship drifts to extra large cable
During the Its Adjacent Waters of protection zone, its inertia has disappeared or disappeared substantially, and the risk that drag anchor influences cable is less than 10 tons.
(4) fishing activity risk
Sea electric power cable is higher than the intensity of submarine communication cable, can resist the damage of some fishing gears and threaten, work of networking
Journey cable protection area has been set to the area that bans catching, and anxious plus the high stream of area wave, two sides fisherman mainly catches in open-ocean fishing fixation, coastal waters
It is less to drag for operation.Threat very little of the fishing operation to Qiongzhou Strait submarine cable is, it is necessary to the risk from fishing operation considered
Mainly fishing boat anchor does harm to, and anchor evil mainly includes casting anchor and drag anchor.
1) cast anchor
Maritime affairs situation that the possibility cast anchor is depended primarily near extra large cable protection zone, port and pier busy extent and cast anchor
The position in area.In navigation channel, all ships should remain navigation, it is any cast anchor all to likely result in fall hitting for anchor later
Hit, so the possibility for accident of being cast anchor among navigation channel is little.Moreover, also there are many ships specified along the cable of Qiongzhou Strait
Oceangoing ship anchorage, especially PORT OF MACUN, but the still potential risk cast anchor.
A) anchorage regardless area, which is generally used to berth, preferential ship entered harbor or waits the ship of pilot boat to berth.This there is
The possibility that anchorage regardless area mistake is cast anchor.Meanwhile after being fully parked with when anchorage regardless area, often having ship, nearby region is thrown
Anchor berths.
B) Qiongzhou Strait is not only the primary channel of the North Sea and the mouth of the Zhujiang River, and is the North Sea and the mouth of the Zhujiang River water channel ship
In the main lee in typhoon and monsoon season, before extreme climate appearance, wait the ship to enter a port before anchorage and into anchor
During ground temporarily, it is likely that cast anchor, for the submarine cable across Qiongzhou Strait west section, the harm cast anchor is ship anchor
Throw unintentionally across submarine cable, when some are urgent, interim cast anchor also occurs.
C) for Hou Gang it is interim cast anchor, drag anchor behavior, Qiongzhou Strait traffic hub VTS supervision departments can not often shift to an earlier date
Precognition, and before extreme climate during whole emergency traffic management, it is very easy to ship-handling omission point occur.
2) drag anchor
Drag anchor is exactly after anchorage regardless, and anchor will also drag the situation of a segment distance at the bottom.Specific length depends on
The speed when size of ship and anchor, ship drag anchor.
The result investigated according to Qiongzhou Strait seabottom geology finds there is the vestige of all kinds of obvious drag anchors on extra large cable protection zone,
The vestige of drag anchor is present not only in transmeridional navigation channel region, also goes out the longitudinal region in north-south, and different water depth condition is equal
There is anchor trace.The reality of this explanation extra large cable protection region drag anchor is severeer.
2.4 Hainan networking submarine cable principal risk source
With reference to the specific environment of Qiongzhou Strait and submarine cable Route Area, the main hazard of Submarine Cable of Hainan Interconnection Project
Source does harm to for anchor, including falls two kinds of forms of anchor and drag anchor.
3rd, for different types of main hazard source, classification, the risk evaluation model quantified are established：
3.1 junks hit risk evaluation model
Sea junk may hit cable, because cable has armouring protection in itself, plus later stage covering protection, it is small-sized and
Object in light weight, which falls, does not produce threat to submarine cable.Junk path in water is mainly relevant with body form, weight.It is real
Test observation and show that main trajectory pattern is as shown in figure 1, a, d, e are mainly tube track to junk in water, rectangle, circular object
Track is as shown in b, c, f.Object being just distributed very much for the angle of deviation in the track in seabed, as shown in formula (1),
P (x) is that falling object reaches sub-sea location and falls the probability density of the horizontal range x between drop point site in formula (1),
X is the horizontal range that falling object is offset in seabed, and δ is lateral shift distance, and d is falling object in the depth in seabed, offset distance
As shown in Figure 2.
All kinds of object displacement angles are as shown in table 1.
The different objects deviation angle of table 1
Object hits cable schematic diagram as shown in figure 3, shown in the probability such as formula (2) that cable is hit
P in formula (2)hit,sl,rTo hit the probability on submerged pipeline in the range of annual annular radius r；Phit,rTo hit
The probability of annular extent；LslFor the length of submerged pipeline in annular extent；D is submarine cable diameter, and B is junk width, and A is half
Footpath is r annulus area.
Phit,rAs shown in formula (3).
Phit,r=P (ri＜ x≤r0)=P (x≤r0)-P(x≤ri)
R in formula (3)iFor the least radius in annular extent, r0For the maximum radius in annular extent.
3.2 shipwrecks hit risk evaluation model
Shipwreck can be considered a kind of special junk.Its risk evaluation model is consistent with junk risk probability computational methods.Often
Year shipwreck is hit shown in the probability such as formula (4) of submarine cable.
P in formulaaFor the ratio of Ship's Sinking, LsinkFor the captain for the ship that sinks, S is the length of exposure of cable；AsinkIt is crucial
Shipwreck region area.
3.3 stranded shock risk evaluation models
Cable logs in area, and the stranded possible hit submarine cable of ship drift, Calculation of Ship Grounding's frequency is with every ship due to collision
And cause the probability of sinking relevant.Stranded vessel is hit shown in the probability such as formula (5) of submarine cable,
FHit=K1PShipPac (5)
F in formula (5)HitThe probability of submarine cable is hit for annual stranded vessel；PacFor Calculation of Ship Grounding's Probability, K1To consider
In the modifying factor that cable area drift is stranded；PshipCable bad is can result in region for ship large-sized enough
Ratio.
3.4 drag anchor risk evaluation models
Ship drag anchor damage submarine cable situation cable in by the accident of outer damage it is relatively common, be important wind
Dangerous factor.Cast anchor and consider in the case where ship runs out of steam, such as in a certain ultimate range of marine anchorage
Emergency brake.This ultimate range is included in the possibility drifted about under the influence of unfavorable wind and ocean current to submarine cable direction.Anchor
After seabed is thrown, sea bed is mainly pierced into using the resistance of soil by anchor to provide counter-force so as to fixed ship.Soil exists
The counter-force that horizontal direction can be provided is much larger than the counter-force provided in vertical direction, in the certain feelings of the anchor holding power of required offer
Under condition, the action direction and the horizontal sextant angle in mud face of anchor chain are smaller, and the anchor holding power that it can be provided is bigger, otherwise the bigger anchor of angle
Grip is smaller.
Drag anchor is caught on shown in the probability such as formula (6) of submarine cable：
F in formula (6)HitThe probability of submarine cable is caught on for annual drag anchor；NshipThere is anchoring to route section by extra large cable
The quantity of possible ship；FDriftFor drift frequency；PHumanFor the probability not cast anchor；VshipFor speed of the ship in metres per second；α is to be anchored on
The length dragged before seabed；PHitTo fall the probability that anchor hits extra large cable every time, conservative estimation value is 1.0, and assumes ship and electricity
Cable passes perpendicularly through.
3.5 fall anchor risk evaluation model
In addition to anchor hook lives the risk of cable, falling anchor and hitting the risk of cable should also consider.It is similar with drag anchor, fall anchor only
Consider the situation of ship emergency brake in the case where running out of steam.Fall anchor to hit shown in the probability such as formula (7) of cable：
FHit=NShipFDrift[1-PHumman]PLossPHit (7)
F in formula (7)HitTo fall the probability that anchor hits submarine cable every year；NshipThere is anchoring to route section by extra large cable
The quantity of possible ship；FDriftFor drift frequency；PHumanFor the probability not cast anchor near extra large cable；PLossAs behaviour of casting anchor
When making, crewman is to the out of control probability of anchor；PHitTo fall the probability that anchor hits extra large cable every time.
The main hazard source of Submarine Cable of Hainan Interconnection Project does harm to for anchor, falls anchor and drag anchor risk probability such as formula (6), formula
(7) shown in.To carry out accurate classification quantitative assessment, can according to seabottom geology condition by submarine cable Route Area be divided into A areas,
B areas, C areas, D areas, E areas, Table A -2 between specific zoned format.
The submarine cable of Table A -2 route Division
Risk class is relevant with protection of submarine cable form, according to the geographical position of Submarine Cable of Hainan Interconnection Project, boat
The factors such as road, anchorage, geological conditions, protocol requirement and operating expenses, devise following five kinds of extra large cable protection schemes.
Scheme 1：Section is logged in both sides and carries out pre- ditching：It is shallower, easy for construction that north logs in section (KP0-KP3.3) marine site, builds
View directly pre- ditching；South, which logs in, many rolling rocks, depth of water 0-10 rice on section (KP29.8-KP30.5) sea bed dauk, it is proposed that
Pre- ditching after cleaning rolling rock.Interlude does not take any safeguard measure, and cable is directly exposed to be positioned over seabed.
Scheme 2：According to scheme 1 both sides are logged in section and carries out pre- ditching protection.In interlude (KP3.3-KP29.8) portion
Region-by-region carries out punching and buries protection, according to BPI 1.5, resists 1 ton of anchor to hit determination buried depth, is protected without jackstone.
Scheme 3：According to scheme 2 both sides are logged in section and interlude carries out pre- ditching protection and punching and buries protection.In main channel
(KP5-KP19) some areas carry out jackstone protection, are hit according to anti-1 ton of anchor and determine rock weir size.
Scheme 4：According to scheme 2 both sides are logged in section and interlude carries out pre- ditching protection and punching and buries protection.Remaining
All regions carry out jackstone protection, are hit according to anti-1 ton of anchor and determine rock weir size.
Scheme 5：According to scheme 1 both sides are logged in section and carries out pre- ditching protection.In interlude (KP3.3-KP29.8) portion
Region-by-region carries out punching and buries protection, according to BPI 1.5, resists 2 tons of anchors to hit determination buried depth, and jackstone guarantor is carried out in remaining all regions
Shield, hit according to anti-2 tons of anchors and determine rock weir size.
4th, the risk evaluation model in different type main hazard source is solved, by the risk assessment in different type main hazard source
Model is added, and draws the accident reproduction phase, is formulated for cable risk analysis and protection scheme and is provided reference.
According to protection scheme different in step 3, and the ship type of each section of combination and quantity situation are to seabed electricity
Risk situation under each protection scheme of cable carries out classification quantitative calculating, and submarine cable is fallen into anchor damage and drag anchor damage considers
For submarine cable accident probability.Submarine cable accident rate is counted as shown in Table A -3, each protection scheme submarine cable accident rate contrast
See Fig. 6.
Accident rate and return period under the two times extra large cable difference protection schemes of Table A -3
Different section submarine cable classification quantitative risk evaluation results under different protection schemes can be drawn by Fig. 6 and Table A -3.
The accident reproduction phase can be calculated according to accident probability.It can be seen that the accident reproduction phase of extra large cable protection scheme 1, scheme 2 is respectively
36.36,47.69, southern major network and 50 years networking project submarine cable projected lives of Hainan Power Grid, come from result of calculation
See, scheme 1, scheme 2 are unsatisfactory for requiring.Scheme 3, scheme 4, the accident reproduction phase of scheme 5 be respectively 51.45,51.46 and
77.19, it can meet that projected life requires, but scheme 4 only improves 0.01 than the accident reproduction phase of scheme 3, and protection cost is but
Greatly improve, the safe class highest of scheme 5, but protection cost is too high, it is less economical.Therefore, it is recommended that southern major network and Hainan
Grid network engineering submarine cable uses protection scheme 3.
The content not being described in detail in this specification belongs to prior art known to professional and technical personnel in the field.
Claims (7)
1. the submarine cable risk assessment probability analysis method of a kind of classification quantitative, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps：
(1) according to the geography and geological environment at Submarine Cable Laying, the risk source of submarine cable is determined；
(2) statistical analysis is carried out to the risk source of submarine cable, obtains influenceing the main hazard source of submarine cable safety, including fallen
Thing is hit, shipwreck is hit, it is stranded hit, drag anchor hits and falls anchor and hit；
(3) different types of main hazard source in step 2 is directed to, establishes classification, the risk evaluation model quantified respectively；
The risk evaluation model for establishing stranded shock is：
FHit=K1PShipPac
F in formulaHitThe probability of submarine cable is hit for annual stranded vessel；PacFor Calculation of Ship Grounding's Probability, K1To consider in cable area
The stranded modifying factor of domain drift；PshipThe ratio of cable bad is can result in region for ship large-sized enough；
(4) risk evaluation model in different type main hazard source is solved, by the risk assessment mould in different type main hazard source
Type, which is added, obtains the accident reproduction phase.
2. a kind of submarine cable risk assessment probability analysis method of classification quantitative according to claim 1, its feature exist
In：Geography and geological environment in the step (1) at Submarine Cable Laying include fishing ground environment, the harbour sea of cable debarkation point
The depth of water of situation, sanidal length and route that the frequent degree of thing activity, water route ship cast anchor.
3. a kind of submarine cable risk assessment probability analysis method of classification quantitative according to claim 1, its feature exist
In：The risk source of submarine cable includes cable itself risk, natural risk and human risks in the step (1), wherein,
Itself risk of the cable is risk caused by the type of submarine cable, material, structural factor；
The natural risk is subsea geological environment, risk caused by geological conditions factor, including submarine landslide, landslide, silt
Motion and earthquake；
The human risks is mainly risk caused by the human activity of sea, comprising fish, cast anchor, drilling well, sea ship operation.
4. a kind of submarine cable risk assessment probability analysis method of classification quantitative according to claim 1, its feature exist
In establishing the risk evaluation model that junk is hit in the step (3) is：
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P in formulahit,sl,rThe probability on submarine cable is hit for junk in the range of annual annular radius r；Phit,rTo hit in radius
For the probability in r annular extent；LslFor the length of submarine cable in annular extent；D is submarine cable diameter, and B is that junk is wide
Degree, ArThe annulus area for being r for radius；
Wherein
Phit,r=P (ri＜ x≤r0)=P (x≤r0)-P(x≤ri)
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P (x) is that falling object reaches sub-sea location and falls the probability density of the horizontal range x between drop point site in formula, and x is to fall
The horizontal range that thing is offset in seabed, δ are lateral shift distance, riFor the least radius in annular extent, r0For in annular extent
Maximum radius.
5. a kind of submarine cable risk assessment probability analysis method of classification quantitative according to claim 1, its feature exist
In establishing the risk evaluation model that shipwreck is hit in the step (3) is：
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F in formulaHitThe probability of submarine cable is hit for annual shipwreck；PaFor the ratio of Ship's Sinking, LsinkFor the ship for the ship that sinks
Long, S is the length of exposure of cable；AsinkCrucial shipwreck region area.
6. a kind of submarine cable risk assessment probability analysis method of classification quantitative according to claim 1, its feature exist
In establishing the risk evaluation model that drag anchor is hit in the step (3) is：
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F in formulaHitThe probability of submarine cable is caught on for annual drag anchor；NshipThere is the possible ship that anchors to route section by extra large cable
The quantity of oceangoing ship；FDriftFor drift frequency；PHumanFor the probability not cast anchor near extra large cable；VshipFor speed of the ship in metres per second；α is anchor
It is fixed on the length dragged before seabed；PHitTo fall the probability that anchor hits extra large cable every time.
7. a kind of submarine cable risk assessment probability analysis method of classification quantitative according to claim 1, its feature exist
In establishing the risk evaluation model that anchor is hit in the step (3) is：
FHit=NShipFDrift[1-PHumman]PLossPHit
F in formulaHitTo fall the probability that anchor hits submarine cable every year；NshipThere is the possible ship that anchors to route section by extra large cable
The quantity of oceangoing ship；FDriftFor drift frequency；PHumanFor the probability not cast anchor near extra large cable；PLossWhen cast anchor operation when, ship
Member is to the out of control probability of anchor；PHitTo fall the probability that anchor hits extra large cable every time.
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| CN105184480A (en) * | 2015-09-01 | 2015-12-23 | 中国南方电网有限责任公司超高压输电公司广州局 | Assessment method for latent anchor damage caused by ships to submarine cables, and control system |
| CN106022653A (en) * | 2016-06-14 | 2016-10-12 | 广东科诺勘测工程有限公司 | Ship risk early warning method and device |
| CN106815474B (en) * | 2017-01-09 | 2019-09-10 | 浙江海洋大学 | The appraisal procedure and managing and control system of a kind of ship to the potential anchor evil of sea cable |
| CN107133403A (en) * | 2017-05-04 | 2017-09-05 | 中国海洋石油总公司 | A kind of ocean platform junk hits the preparation method of above-decks equipment probability |
| CN110598240B (en) * | 2019-07-19 | 2023-05-30 | 国家电网有限公司 | Submarine cable multi-element survey data analysis method based on three-dimensional geological model |
| CN111177922B (en) * | 2019-12-27 | 2023-02-17 | 中国能源建设集团浙江省电力设计院有限公司 | Submarine cable route layered optimization arrangement method under complex sea conditions |
| CN111428352A (en) * | 2020-03-11 | 2020-07-17 | 国网辽宁省电力有限公司大连供电公司 | Reliability modeling method for submarine cable connected with island micro-grid |
| CN112989681B (en) * | 2021-05-19 | 2021-08-24 | 广东电网有限责任公司湛江供电局 | Seabed erosion and deposition prediction analysis system and method for submarine cable routing area |
| CN113362654B (en) * | 2021-06-29 | 2022-04-12 | 中国人民解放军海军工程大学 | Ship monitoring and early warning system for preventing anchor loss of submarine cable |
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