CN104573849A - Bus dispatch optimization method for predicting passenger flow based on ARIMA model - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a bus dispatch optimization method for predicting passenger flow based on an ARIMA model. The bus dispatch optimization method for predicting the passenger flow based on the ARIMA model comprises the following steps: mainly establishing an optimal ARIMA model to predict passenger flow volume of a period of time; calculating number of passengers getting on the bus and the number of passengers getting off the bus in each period and each station according to the predicted passenger flow; performing a curve-fitting by using an ten-order polynomial to obtain a function of the number of passengers getting on the bus and the function of the number of passengers getting off the bus in related time of the each station, thereby representing data relative to the bus dispatch through two functions, for example, a straight line parallel to a y-axis can be used to divide the function curve of the number of passengers getting on the bus and a separation distance of adjacent two straight lines is departure interval of two regular buses; establishing two satisfaction objective combination optimization model in different intervals; obtaining departure times and departure interval of each period; and besides, formulating a whole day bus dispatch time table considering a problem of over-period of the bus during driving; improving and adjusting the conventional departure time table in real time and obtaining a best dispatch plan.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to bus scheduling method field, specifically a kind of bus dispatching optimization method based on ARIMA model prediction passenger flow.
Background technology
Bus passenger flow on the line, on direction, all have DYNAMIC DISTRIBUTION on the time, on place, on section, has certain periodic law, simultaneously by the impact of random fluctuation.If analyzed the periodic regularity of passenger flow, important certainty information can only be extracted, too much waste is existed to randomness information, and the interactively that effective method cannot be provided to judge between each certainty factor, then cause the fitting precision of model not high.
Bus passenger flow prediction is the basis of bus dynamic dispatching, when predicting in advance, grasping passenger flow Changing Pattern, scientifically could formulate the plan of public transit vehicle running scheduling, and arranged rational is dispatched, and improves operation plan in time.But in the dispatching operation of reality, be mostly the change of micro-judgment passenger flow relying on yardman, driver, thus formulate the departure interval, carry out management and running.Although have certain practicality, there is obvious deficiency, often there is comparatively big error with actual conditions, cause passenger to wait less than car for a long time, or the situation of stayer.
The data accuracy that traditional bus passenger flow data acquisition obtains is not high, now a lot of public transport uses passenger flow counting equipment, every bar circuit can very real-time getting at the passenger flow data of each website, and the accuracy of passenger flow data also reaches certain level.But it is not enough to the utilization of these passenger flow datas.
summary of the inventionthe object of this invention is to provide a kind of bus dispatching optimization method based on ARIMA model prediction passenger flow, to solve prior art Problems existing.
In order to achieve the above object, the technical solution adopted in the present invention is:
Based on the bus dispatching optimization method of ARIMA model prediction passenger flow, it is characterized in that: comprise the following steps:
(1), in conjunction with public bus network station data, gps data, carry out standardization to the real-time passenger flow data got and passenger flow historical data to arrange, arrange out the volume of the flow of passengers, each section volume of the flow of passengers of each website in the volume of the flow of passengers of circuit whole day in one period, each period;
(2), to passenger flow data sequence carry out pre-service, judge whether this sequence is stationary random sequence, if non-stationary series, then carries out tranquilization process to this sequence, make the sequence after processing be steady nonwhite noise sequence;
(3), calculate autocorrelation function and the partial autocorrelation function of passenger flow sequence, according to autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function, choose corresponding ARIMA model and carry out matching;
(4), to the ARIMA model set up carry out parameter estimation and applicability inspection, if the model of matching is not by inspection, returns step (3), reselect model and carry out matching;
(5), model optimization: if the model of matching is by inspection, still return step (3), take into full account various possibility, set up multiple model of fit, from all by choosing optimization model the model of inspection;
(6), utilize the optimum ARIMA model simulated, the volume of the flow of passengers in one period is predicted; Utilize the public bus network volume of the flow of passengers at times of prediction, according to passenger flow Changing Pattern, set up two satisfaction objective cross Optimized models at times of Prescribed Properties, obtain optimum solution, obtain dispatching a car number of times and departure interval of day part, consider the problem across the period in vehicle travel process simultaneously, make whole day bus scheduling timetable;
(7), according to the whole day volume of the flow of passengers division period completely, in the same time period, the departure interval is identical, and the departure interval namely in each time period is equispaced;
(8), according to the volume of the flow of passengers predicted, calculate the total number of getting on the bus of each website in day part and number of getting off, carry out curve fitting with ten rank polynomial expressions, obtain get on the bus ridership function and the get off ridership function of each website about the time;
(9) objective optimization function, is set up: the extent function of occupant comfort extent function, public transport company;
(10), constraint condition is considered: for public transport company's interests, the average load factor of the public transit vehicle that each period slave site is outputed can not lower than a value; For the interests of passenger, day part passenger can not exceed restriction in the stand-by period of platform, and then satisfaction can corresponding reduction to exceed the upper limit;
(11), according to the objective function set up and constraint condition, utilize Matlab mathematical tool, obtain the optimum solution of Nonlinear Parameter Optimized model, obtain dispatching a car number of times and departure interval of each period;
(12) dispatching a car number of times and departure interval, according to the day part solved, consider the problem across the period in vehicle travel process, draw dispatching a car number of times and departure interval of day part optimum, the volume of the flow of passengers generally in adjacent two periods is widely different; If the last period comparatively rear period is ebb, the vehicle sent in the previous time period, also in traveling after this time period terminates, then the passenger flow of this car after part website can run in the period, can cause the delay of passenger at these websites; Follow the tracks of according to one way is always consuming time each car sent in each period, find out in the period and send vehicle across the first car of reaching terminal after the period; Then the departure interval after this regular bus is adjusted to departure interval of next period, can solve the crowded scene do not expected that may occur across period vehicle;
And if the last period comparatively rear period is peak, vehicle number namely needed for the last period is more than a rear period, so the last period send across period car after still dispatch a car by the departure interval in the last period, until a rear period just changes the departure interval;
(13) the optimum departure interval taking into account passenger and company interest, according to step (12) obtained, number of times of dispatching a car, make suitable departure time-table.
The present invention is in passenger flow Short-term Forecasting Model, on the basis of the higher passenger flow data of accuracy obtained, utilize past and present passenger flow data, taken into full account passenger flow correlativity in time, periodically simultaneously, consider again the impact of random fluctuation, by the randomness to passenger flow data, stationarity and periodically analyze, set up optimum ARIMA time series models, applicability and the precision of prediction of model are better, in bus dispatching is optimized, bus scheduling process is regarded as Bi-objective nonlinear programming process, utilize get on the bus ridership function and the ridership function of getting off of curve, on the basis considering passenger and public transport company's interests, set up two satisfaction target (public transport company's satisfactions at times of bus dispatching, passenger satisfaction) Combinatorial Optimization Model, solve optimum solution, obtain dispatching a car number of times and departure interval of day part, consider the problem across the period in vehicle travel process simultaneously, make whole day bus scheduling timetable, simultaneously can be perfect in time to existing departure time-table, adjustment, obtain optimal scheduling plan.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the inventive method process flow diagram.
Embodiment
Shown in Figure 1, based on the bus dispatching optimization method of ARIMA model prediction passenger flow, comprise the following steps:
(1), in conjunction with public bus network station data, gps data, carry out standardization to the real-time passenger flow data got and passenger flow historical data to arrange, arrange out the volume of the flow of passengers, each section volume of the flow of passengers of each website in the volume of the flow of passengers of circuit whole day in one period, each period;
(2), to passenger flow data sequence carry out pre-service, judge whether this sequence is stationary random sequence, if non-stationary series, then carries out tranquilization process to this sequence, make the sequence after processing be steady nonwhite noise sequence;
(3), calculate autocorrelation function and the partial autocorrelation function of passenger flow sequence, according to autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function, choose corresponding ARIMA model and carry out matching;
(4), to the ARIMA model set up carry out parameter estimation and applicability inspection, if the model of matching is not by inspection, returns step (3), reselect model and carry out matching;
(5), model optimization: if the model of matching is by inspection, still return step (3), take into full account various possibility, set up multiple model of fit, from all by choosing optimization model the model of inspection;
(6), utilize the optimum ARIMA model simulated, the volume of the flow of passengers in one period is predicted; Utilize the public bus network volume of the flow of passengers at times of prediction, according to passenger flow Changing Pattern, set up two satisfaction objective cross Optimized models at times of Prescribed Properties, obtain optimum solution, obtain dispatching a car number of times and departure interval of day part, consider the problem across the period in vehicle travel process simultaneously, make whole day bus scheduling timetable;
(7), according to the whole day volume of the flow of passengers division period completely, in the same time period, the departure interval is identical, and the departure interval namely in each time period is equispaced;
(8), according to the volume of the flow of passengers predicted, calculate the total number of getting on the bus of each website in day part and number of getting off, carry out curve fitting with ten rank polynomial expressions, obtain get on the bus ridership function and the get off ridership function of each website about the time;
(9) objective optimization function, is set up: the extent function of occupant comfort extent function, public transport company;
(10), constraint condition is considered: for public transport company's interests, the average load factor of the public transit vehicle that each period slave site is outputed can not lower than a value; For the interests of passenger, day part passenger can not exceed restriction in the stand-by period of platform, and then satisfaction can corresponding reduction to exceed the upper limit;
(11), according to the objective function set up and constraint condition, utilize Matlab mathematical tool, obtain the optimum solution of Nonlinear Parameter Optimized model, obtain dispatching a car number of times and departure interval of each period;
(12) dispatching a car number of times and departure interval, according to the day part solved, consider the problem across the period in vehicle travel process, draw dispatching a car number of times and departure interval of day part optimum, the volume of the flow of passengers generally in adjacent two periods is widely different; If the last period comparatively rear period is ebb, the vehicle sent in the previous time period, also in traveling after this time period terminates, then the passenger flow of this car after part website can run in the period, can cause the delay of passenger at these websites; Follow the tracks of according to one way is always consuming time each car sent in each period, find out in the period and send vehicle across the first car of reaching terminal after the period; Then the departure interval after this regular bus is adjusted to departure interval of next period, can solve the crowded scene do not expected that may occur across period vehicle;
And if the last period comparatively rear period is peak, vehicle number namely needed for the last period is more than a rear period, so the last period send across period car after still dispatch a car by the departure interval in the last period, until a rear period just changes the departure interval;
(13) the optimum departure interval taking into account passenger and company interest, according to step (12) obtained, number of times of dispatching a car, make suitable departure time-table.
The present invention can make up the deficiency to acquired bus passenger flow data separate.By utilizing the passenger flow data information obtained from bus passenger flow counting assembly, suitable parameter is selected to set up the volume of the flow of passengers in optimum ARIMA model prediction following a period of time, and utilize the volume of the flow of passengers of prediction, set up two satisfaction target (public transport company's satisfaction, passenger satisfaction) Combinatorial Optimization Model at times, obtain taking into account the optimum departure interval of passenger and company interest, number of times of dispatching a car, make suitable departure time-table.
Claims (1)
1., based on the bus dispatching optimization method of ARIMA model prediction passenger flow, it is characterized in that: comprise the following steps:
(1), in conjunction with public bus network station data, gps data, carry out standardization to the real-time passenger flow data got and passenger flow historical data to arrange, arrange out the volume of the flow of passengers, each section volume of the flow of passengers of each website in the volume of the flow of passengers of circuit whole day in one period, each period;
(2), to passenger flow data sequence carry out pre-service, judge whether this sequence is stationary random sequence, if non-stationary series, then carries out tranquilization process to this sequence, make the sequence after processing be steady nonwhite noise sequence;
(3), calculate autocorrelation function and the partial autocorrelation function of passenger flow sequence, according to autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function, choose corresponding ARIMA model and carry out matching;
(4), to the ARIMA model set up carry out parameter estimation and applicability inspection, if the model of matching is not by inspection, returns step (3), reselect model and carry out matching;
(5), model optimization: if the model of matching is by inspection, still return step (3), take into full account various possibility, set up multiple model of fit, from all by choosing optimization model the model of inspection;
(6), utilize the optimum ARIMA model simulated, the volume of the flow of passengers in one period is predicted; Utilize the public bus network volume of the flow of passengers at times of prediction, according to passenger flow Changing Pattern, set up two satisfaction objective cross Optimized models at times of Prescribed Properties, obtain optimum solution, obtain dispatching a car number of times and departure interval of day part, consider the problem across the period in vehicle travel process simultaneously, make whole day bus scheduling timetable;
(7), according to the whole day volume of the flow of passengers division period completely, in the same time period, the departure interval is identical, and the departure interval namely in each time period is equispaced;
(8), according to the volume of the flow of passengers predicted, calculate the total number of getting on the bus of each website in day part and number of getting off, carry out curve fitting with ten rank polynomial expressions, obtain get on the bus ridership function and the get off ridership function of each website about the time;
(9) objective optimization function, is set up: the extent function of occupant comfort extent function, public transport company;
(10), constraint condition is considered: for public transport company's interests, the average load factor of the public transit vehicle that each period slave site is outputed can not lower than a value; For the interests of passenger, day part passenger can not exceed restriction in the stand-by period of platform, and then satisfaction can corresponding reduction to exceed the upper limit;
(11), according to the objective function set up and constraint condition, utilize Matlab mathematical tool, obtain the optimum solution of Nonlinear Parameter Optimized model, obtain dispatching a car number of times and departure interval of each period;
(12) dispatching a car number of times and departure interval, according to the day part solved, consider the problem across the period in vehicle travel process, draw dispatching a car number of times and departure interval of day part optimum, the volume of the flow of passengers generally in adjacent two periods is widely different; If the last period comparatively rear period is ebb, the vehicle sent in the previous time period, also in traveling after this time period terminates, then the passenger flow of this car after part website can run in the period, can cause the delay of passenger at these websites; Follow the tracks of according to one way is always consuming time each car sent in each period, find out in the period and send vehicle across the first car of reaching terminal after the period; Then the departure interval after this regular bus is adjusted to departure interval of next period, can solve the crowded scene do not expected that may occur across period vehicle;
And if the last period comparatively rear period is peak, vehicle number namely needed for the last period is more than a rear period, so the last period send across period car after still dispatch a car by the departure interval in the last period, until a rear period just changes the departure interval;
(13) the optimum departure interval taking into account passenger and company interest, according to step (12) obtained, number of times of dispatching a car, make suitable departure time-table.
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