CN104462806A - Non-metallic pipe life prediction method - Google Patents
Non-metallic pipe life prediction method Download PDFInfo
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- CN104462806A CN104462806A CN201410721347.5A CN201410721347A CN104462806A CN 104462806 A CN104462806 A CN 104462806A CN 201410721347 A CN201410721347 A CN 201410721347A CN 104462806 A CN104462806 A CN 104462806A
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Abstract
The invention provides a non-metallic pipe life prediction method which is a method used for predicating the life time of a flexible composite pipe based on linear regression by adopting a hydrostatic pressure residual strength method, performing linear regression on the logarithm of a residual bursting strength value and the logarithm of a hydrostatic pressure time by means of data obtained by hydrostatic pressure and bursting experiments to obtain a fitting straight line, and substituting a life compressive strength value to obtain the life time of the pipe; the prediction method provided by the invention is simple and easy to implement and can be used for predicting the life time of the flexible composite pipe quickly and accurately, and the method supports multi-point measurement and has verification and correction functions on a prediction result.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to oil, Gas Industry tubing life time electric powder prediction, be specifically related to a kind of nonmetallic pipe life-span prediction method.
Background technology
Flexible compound pipeline has excellent corrosion resistance and lower flow resistance, in oil-gas field development ground engineering construction, obtaining fairly large application in recent years, having played important effect to slowing down steel pipe corrosion, the investment of saving ground, reduction maintenance cost etc.At present, flexible composite pipe tubing has been applied to the system such as oil-gas gathering and transportation and conveying, water supply and water filling of oil gas field, and length, more than 20,000 kilometers, accounts for 10% of oil-gas field surface engineering pipeline sum.
In oil-gas transportation process, there is pressure in tubular body, and especially under some special operation condition, requirement of withstand voltage is higher.In order to ensure the security of Cemented filling and carrying out smoothly of production, must ensure that the input pipeline produced bears the interior pressure request of pumped (conveying) medium generation.But, the history that current China produces enhancing thermoplasticity continuous-tube is not long, and current home products there is no unified formal name, and the situation of domestic each manufacturer is also different, the production technology of some Introduced From Abroad maturations, what have is then designed, designed development and production techniques; The high performance material of selecting had produces expensive goods, and economical route walked by the relatively low-grade material of then selecting had; Product is in the market numerous in variety, different properties.For different types of product, part producer does not carry out product evaluation in strict accordance with relevant criterion, and What is more does not possess long-term hydrostatic test condition.
Carry out estimation of fatigue life exactly, for elimination accident generation hidden danger, work out effective turnaround plan and increase the service life all there is important theory significance and engineering actual value.Have at present in GB/T 18252-2000 by the mensuration of extrapolation method to thermoplastic plastic pipe long-term hydrostatic strength about long-term hydrostatic pressing projectional technique.Although this standard saves the plenty of time, or needed for 1 year be used for measuring, Test Data Collecting point is too much in addition, makes troubles to practical operation.In the face of the flexible composite pipe industry developed rapidly, supplier or the buyer is seldom had to perform by this standard.
Summary of the invention
Order of the present invention is to provide a kind of method predicting flexible composite pipe tubing life time based on linear regression hydrostatic pressing residual intensity, solves existing mensuration mode minute long, measures intricate operation, not convenient problem.
For achieving the above object, the present invention is achieved through the following technical solutions:
A kind of nonmetallic pipe life-span prediction method, utilizes hydrostatic pressing and explosion bulge test the data obtained, draws the life time of this tubing by matching after substituting into life-span compressive resistance value; Concrete steps are as follows:
Step one: choose the required tubing of test
Many flexible composite pipe tubing in same batch of random selecting, are divided into many groups and are numbered;
Step 2: hydrostatic test
Carry out hydrostatic test to often organizing tubing, hydrostatic pressing force value is 2 times of nominal pressures of this batch of tubing, and the hydrostatic pressing time chooses the discrete point of multiple dispersion;
Step 3: hydraulic bursting test
Explosion bulge test is carried out to the tubing after hydrostatic test, test its hydrostatic pressing residual intensity, obtain the hydrostatic pressing residual intensity numerical value often organizing tubing, utilize relative deviation to judge whether numerical value meets the requirements, relative deviation=[(unitary determination value-mean value)/mean value] × 100%, when the relative deviation scope often organizing test data is-20% ~ 20% be qualified data, final fitting data is averaged; Otherwise, then step one is repeated to step 3;
Step 4: linear regression method carries out numerical fitting
Respectively using the logarithm of the logarithm of hydrostatic pressing time and hydrostatic pressing residual intensity value as transverse and longitudinal coordinate, utilize linear regression method to carry out numerical fitting, draw fit equation y=ax+b;
Step 5: curve is corrected
For regression straight line and test point are observed, should carry out giving up and having a penalty heat if there is the larger test point of skew, repeat step one to step 5, determine final fit equation y=a1x+b1, if each point distribution meets linear regression requirement do not perform this step;
Step 6: tubing life-span projection
Force value corresponding when life-span force value is defined as explosion when tubing hydrostatic pressing after long service reaches 1.5 times of nominal pressure or leaks to inefficacy, be designated as δ end, its value size is δ end=1.5* nominal pressure, obtain corresponding time value finally by life-span force value known in equation, this value is the life time of this batch of complex pipe.
Further, random selecting with batch in 18 flexible composite pipe tubing, often group is 3 and is divided into 6 groups and is numbered.
Further, when carrying out hydrostatic test, the hydrostatic pressing time chooses the discrete point in 1000 hours.
The invention has the beneficial effects as follows:
1. compare existing long-term hydrostatic pressing projectional technique, the present invention is by choosing the discrete point of dispersion of multiple hydrostatic pressing time, using the logarithm of the logarithm of hydrostatic pressing time and hydrostatic pressing residual intensity value as transverse and longitudinal coordinate, utilize linear regression method to carry out numerical fitting and go out predictive equation, by the prediction equation tubing life-span, Forecasting Methodology is simple, is convenient to implement, and can dope the life time of flexible composite pipe tubing rapidly and accurately;
2. the test method related in the present invention relates to rationally, and process of the test only relates to hydrostatic test and hydraulic bursting test, and test operation operates according to national standard, is easy to perform;
3. the Mathematical Modelling Method related in the present invention is linear regression, easy to implement;
4. this Forecasting Methodology supports multimetering, has checking and debugging functions to predicting the outcome.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is life prediction linear regression graph.
Fig. 2 is DN100 PN4MPa flexible composite pipe m-residual intensity regression curve during hydrostatic pressing 95 DEG C time.
Fig. 3 is DN100 PN4MPa flexible composite pipe m-residual intensity regression curve during hydrostatic pressing 50 DEG C time.
Fig. 4 is DN100 PN2.5MPa flexible composite pipe m-residual intensity regression curve during hydrostatic pressing 60 DEG C time.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with specific embodiment, the present invention will be further described, the embodiment provided only in order to illustrate the present invention, instead of in order to limit the scope of the invention.
Nonmetallic pipe life-span prediction method of the present invention comprises the following steps:
Step one: choose the required tubing of test and preliminary work.
Random selecting with batch in flexible composite pipe tubing 18 (specify that 18 is test lower limit here, if there is the larger situation of test figure deviation, also need to increase tubing radical), often group is 3 and is divided into 6 groups and is numbered.And prepare other related works.
Step 2: hydrostatic test.
Under a certain temperature requirement, carry out hydrostatic test according to standard GB/T 6111-2003, hydrostatic pressing force value is chosen for 2 times of nominal pressures of this batch of tubing, and the hydrostatic pressing time chooses the discrete point in 1000 hours.
Step 3: hydraulic bursting test.
According to standard GB/T 15560-1995, explosion bulge test is carried out to tubing after hydrostatic test, test its hydrostatic pressing residual intensity, obtain this numerical value.To data analysis, utilize relative deviation to judge, relative deviation=[(unitary determination value-mean value)/mean value] × 100%, when the relative deviation scope often organizing test data is-20% ~ 20% be qualified data, final fitting data is averaged.Otherwise, then step one is repeated to step 3.
Step 4: linear regression method carries out numerical fitting.
Respectively using the logarithm of the logarithm of hydrostatic pressing time and hydrostatic pressing residual intensity value as transverse and longitudinal coordinate, utilize linear regression method to carry out numerical fitting, draw fit equation y=ax+b.
Step 5: curve is corrected.
For regression straight line and test point are observed, should carry out giving up and having a penalty heat if there is the larger test point of skew, repetition step one, to step 5, determines final fit equation y=a1x+b1.If each point distribution meets linear regression requirement and can not perform this step.
Step 6: tubing life-span projection.
In the present invention, force value corresponding when life-span force value is defined as explosion when tubing hydrostatic pressing after long service reaches 1.5 times of nominal pressure or leaks to inefficacy, be designated as δ end, its value size is δ end=1.5* nominal pressure.Obtain corresponding time value finally by life-span force value known in equation, this value is the life time of this batch of complex pipe, sees Fig. 1.
The equipment that this method relates to has hydrostatic pressing equipment, instant blasting equipment, attemperating unit etc.Hydrostatic pressing and explosion bulge test method are pressed GB/T 6111-2003 " fluid conveying thermoplastic plastic pipe withstand voltage test method " and GB/T 15560-1995 " fluid conveying plastic pipe hydraulic pressure instant blasting and withstand voltage test method " respectively and are performed.
This method is further illustrated below by way of specific embodiment:
Example 1: prediction DN100 PN4MPa flexible composite pipe life time 95 DEG C time
(1) the required tubing of test and preliminary work is chosen.Select arbitrarily 12 in the pipe of this batch, 2 is 1 group, is numbered 1#, 2#, 3#, 4#, 5# and 6# respectively; (2) hydrostatic pressing is carried out.Hydrostatic pressing temperature, time and force value arrange in table 1; (3) hydrostatic pressing residual intensity test.Hydraulic bursting test, gained burst pressure force value is in table 1; (4) linear regression method carries out numerical fitting.Through to the logarithm log of hydrostatic pressing time (t)
10t is X-axis, the logarithm log of burst pressure (δ)
10δ is the data fitting of Y-axis, the results are shown in Figure 2, and fit equation is y=-0.0973x+1.2816; (5) tubing life-span projection.Substitute into tubing life-span force value 1.5*4MPa=6MPa, extrapolate life time for about 17 years (about 149349h).
Table 1 DN100 PN4MPa flexible composite pipe process of the test data 95 DEG C time
Example 2: prediction DN100 PN4MPa flexible composite pipe life time 50 DEG C time
(1) the required tubing of test and preliminary work is chosen.Select arbitrarily 12 in the pipe of this batch, 2 is 1 group, is numbered 1#, 2#, 3#, 4#, 5# and 6# respectively; (2) hydrostatic pressing is carried out.Hydrostatic pressing temperature, time and force value arrange in table 2; (3) hydrostatic pressing residual intensity test.Hydraulic bursting test, gained burst pressure force value is in table 2; (4) linear regression method carries out numerical fitting.Through to the logarithm log10t of hydrostatic pressing time (t) for X-axis, the logarithm log10 δ of burst pressure (δ) is the data fitting of Y-axis, the results are shown in Figure 3, and fit equation is y=-0.1172x+1.4435; (5) tubing life-span projection.Substitute into tubing life-span force value 1.5*4MPa=6MPa, extrapolate life time for about 54 years (about 475387h).
Table 2 DN100 PN4MPa flexible composite pipe process of the test data 50 DEG C time
Example 3: prediction DN100 PN2.5MPa flexible composite pipe life time 60 DEG C time
(1) the required tubing of test and preliminary work is chosen.Select arbitrarily 12 in the pipe of this batch, 2 is 1 group, is numbered 1#, 2#, 3#, 4#, 5# and 6# respectively; (2) hydrostatic pressing is carried out.Hydrostatic pressing temperature, time and force value arrange in table 3; (3) hydrostatic pressing residual intensity test.Hydraulic bursting test, gained burst pressure force value is in table 3; (4) linear regression method carries out numerical fitting.Through to the logarithm log10t of hydrostatic pressing time (t) for X-axis, the logarithm log10 δ of burst pressure (δ) is the data fitting of Y-axis, the results are shown in Figure 4, and fit equation is y=-0.0875x+1.032; (5) tubing life-span projection.Substitute into tubing life-span force value 1.5*2.5MPa=3.75MPa, extrapolate life time for about 19.5 (about 171369h).
Table 3 DN100 PN2.5MPa flexible composite pipe process of the test data 50 DEG C time
Claims (3)
1. a nonmetallic pipe life-span prediction method, is characterized in that: utilize hydrostatic pressing and explosion bulge test the data obtained, draws the life time of this tubing by matching after substituting into life-span compressive resistance value;
Concrete steps are as follows:
Step one: choose the required tubing of test
Many flexible composite pipe tubing in same batch of random selecting, are divided into many groups and are numbered;
Step 2: hydrostatic test
Carry out hydrostatic test to often organizing tubing, hydrostatic pressing force value is 2 times of nominal pressures of this batch of tubing, and the hydrostatic pressing time chooses the discrete point of multiple dispersion;
Step 3: hydraulic bursting test
Explosion bulge test is carried out to the tubing after hydrostatic test, test its hydrostatic pressing residual intensity, obtain the hydrostatic pressing residual intensity numerical value often organizing tubing, utilize relative deviation to judge whether numerical value meets the requirements, relative deviation=[(unitary determination value-mean value)/mean value] × 100%, when the relative deviation scope often organizing test data is-20% ~ 20% be qualified data, final fitting data is averaged; Otherwise, then step one is repeated to step 3;
Step 4: linear regression method carries out numerical fitting
Respectively using the logarithm of the logarithm of hydrostatic pressing time and hydrostatic pressing residual intensity value as transverse and longitudinal coordinate, utilize linear regression method to carry out numerical fitting, draw fit equation y=ax+b;
Step 5: curve is corrected
For regression straight line and test point are observed, should carry out giving up and having a penalty heat if there is the larger test point of skew, repeat step one to step 5, determine final fit equation y=a1x+b1, if each point distribution meets linear regression requirement do not perform this step;
Step 6: tubing life-span projection
Force value corresponding when life-span force value is defined as explosion when tubing hydrostatic pressing after long service reaches 1.5 times of nominal pressure or leaks to inefficacy, be designated as δ end, its value size is δ end=1.5* nominal pressure, obtain corresponding time value finally by life-span force value known in equation, this value is the life time of this batch of complex pipe.
2. nonmetallic pipe life-span prediction method according to claim 1, is characterized in that: random selecting with batch in 18 flexible composite pipe tubing, often group is 3 and is divided into 6 groups and is numbered.
3. nonmetallic pipe life-span prediction method according to claim 1, it is characterized in that: when carrying out hydrostatic test, the hydrostatic pressing time chooses the discrete point in 1000 hours.
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| CN105547846A (en) * | 2015-12-29 | 2016-05-04 | 中国石油天然气股份有限公司 | Downhole flexible composite pipe service life prediction method |
| CN107687972A (en) * | 2017-08-17 | 2018-02-13 | 中国石油天然气集团公司 | A kind of fiber enhanced thermoplastic composite plastic tube failure analysis method |
| CN109977511A (en) * | 2019-03-18 | 2019-07-05 | 四川轻化工大学 | Method based on artificial intelligence big data prediction Pressurized Plastic Pipes long term life |
| CN114112695A (en) * | 2020-09-01 | 2022-03-01 | 中国石油天然气股份有限公司 | Pipeline life prediction method and pipeline life prediction device |
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