CN104453876A - Method and device for predicting oil and gas yield of horizontal well of compact oil and gas reservoir - Google Patents
Method and device for predicting oil and gas yield of horizontal well of compact oil and gas reservoir Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a method and a device for predicting oil and gas yield of a horizontal well of a compact oil and gas reservoir, wherein the method comprises the following steps: establishing a reservoir structure index model and a capacity heterogeneous index model of the drilled vertical well according to the drilling data of the drilled vertical well; establishing a maximum monthly yield prediction model of the drilled vertical well by utilizing the reservoir structure index model and the productivity heterogeneous index model; establishing a maximum monthly yield prediction model of the horizontal well to be drilled at the position corresponding to the model according to the maximum monthly yield prediction model of the drilled vertical well; and establishing a yield prediction model of the horizontal well to be drilled along with the production time according to the maximum monthly yield prediction model of the horizontal well to be drilled so as to predict the oil and gas yield of the horizontal well to be drilled along with the production time. The method can obtain the predicted yield which is more consistent with the oil and gas yield of the actual compact oil and gas reservoir horizontal well.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to fine and close oil and gas reservoir exploration and development technical field, especially relate to a kind of Forecasting Methodology and prediction unit of fine and close oil and gas reservoir horizontal well oil and gas production.
Background technology
Along with oil-gas exploration and development is hidden to unconventionaloil pool (i.e. fine and close oil gas) fast-developing by conventional gas and oil, fine and close oil gas becomes the key areas of oil-gas exploration and development gradually.In fine and close oil-gas exploration and development process, optimize core space by evaluating, within it first by drilling straight well and after evaluating and determining target interval, adopting horizontal well and volume fracturing mode to exploit fine and close oil and gas reservoir in target interval.But be not that horizontal wells all in core space can obtain economic oil and gas production after volume fracturing; As the fine and close the most successful U.S. of oil-gas exploration and development, in the fine and close oil gas horizontal well of its exploitation, still there is the well of 40%-50% without economic benefit.Usually, fine and close oil gas horizontal well oil and gas production and recovery time are in " L " type, namely horizontal wells initial production is maximum, along with recovery time extends, oil and gas production declines gradually, as long as the initial stage determining horizontal well maximum oil and gas production, the accumulative oil and gas production of the law forecasting producing well that just can decline according to oil and gas production, how the maximum oil and gas production of Accurate Prediction horizontal well individual well evaluates the key that can this well obtain economic oil and gas production.
Oil gas in hiding from conventional gas and oil flows, and to meet seepage principle different, matrix permeability very low (being generally less than 0.1mD) is pressed in covering of compact reservoir, there is certain starting pressure, after large-scale volume fracturing, in compact reservoir there is seepage flow in oil gas, the multiple types of flow such as diffusion, that is, Mechanism of fluid flow in compact reservoir is not in full conformity with seepage theory, therefore, prior art still adopts the inapplicable fine and close oil and gas reservoir production forecast of the oil and gas production forecast model obtained based on seepage theory, be difficult to accurately reflect its Oil/gas Well output relation over time, error is larger.
Summary of the invention
The object of the present invention is to provide a kind of Forecasting Methodology and prediction unit of fine and close oil and gas reservoir horizontal well oil and gas production.
For achieving the above object, on the one hand, embodiments provide a kind of Forecasting Methodology of fine and close oil and gas reservoir horizontal well oil and gas production, comprise the following steps:
This reservoir structure exponential model of drilling straight-hole and production capacity heterogeneous body exponential model is set up according to the drilling data of drilling straight-hole;
Utilize the maximum monthly output forecast model of drilling straight-hole described in described reservoir structure exponential model and the foundation of described production capacity heterogeneous body exponential model;
Maximum monthly output forecast model according to described drilling straight-hole sets up the maximum monthly output forecast model treating horizontal well drilling with its corresponding position;
Treat that the maximum monthly output forecast model of horizontal well drilling treats the Production Forecast Models that horizontal well drilling changed with the production time described in setting up according to described, described in predicting, treat the oil and gas production that horizontal well drilling changed with the production time.
Preferably, described reservoir structure exponential model is: R
s=γ
s(GR) × V
sh;
Wherein, R
sfor reservoir structure index; γ
s(GR) be GR variation variance radical function; GR is natural gamma ray logging value; V
shfor shale content;
Described production capacity heterogeneous body exponential model is:
In formula, Q
hfor production capacity heterogeneous body index; γ
s(DEN) be the variation variance radical function of density log; H
iit is the core intersection of i-th layer;
it is the degree of porosity of i-th layer; S
oiit is the oil saturation of i-th layer; G
iit is the barometric gradient of i-th layer; μ
iit is the viscosity of crude of i-th layer.
Preferably, the maximum monthly output forecast model of described drilling straight-hole is: Q
vmax=a × Q
h/ R
s+ b;
In formula, Q
vmaxfor the maximum monthly oil production of described drilling straight-hole; R
sfor reservoir structure index; Q
hfor production capacity heterogeneous body index; A is predetermined coefficient; B is preset constant.
Preferably, treat described in that the maximum monthly output forecast model of horizontal well drilling is: Q
hmax=c × Q
vmax d;
In formula, Q
hmaxfor the described maximum monthly oil production treating horizontal well drilling; Q
vmaxfor the maximum monthly oil production of described drilling straight-hole; C is predetermined coefficient; D is for presetting exponential constant.
Preferably, treat described in described basis that the maximum monthly output forecast model of horizontal well drilling is treated to be specially the Production Forecast Models that horizontal well drilling changed with the production time described in setting up:
Treat that the maximum monthly output forecast model of horizontal well drilling treats that horizontal well drilling to taper off the forecast model of rule change: Q with the production time described in setting up according to described
hmonth=Q
hmax× t
f;
In formula, Q
hmaxfor the described maximum monthly oil production treating horizontal well drilling; T is the production time in units of the moon; Q
hmonthfor treating the monthly oil production of horizontal well drilling described in t month production time; F is for presetting exponential constant, and its value is negative value.
The embodiment of the present invention additionally provides a kind of prediction unit of fine and close oil and gas reservoir horizontal well oil and gas production on the other hand, comprising:
Module set up by parameter model, for setting up this reservoir structure exponential model of drilling straight-hole and production capacity heterogeneous body exponential model according to the drilling data of drilling straight-hole;
First yield model sets up module, for utilizing the maximum monthly output forecast model of drilling straight-hole described in described reservoir structure exponential model and the foundation of described production capacity heterogeneous body exponential model;
Second yield model sets up module, sets up for the maximum monthly output forecast model according to described drilling straight-hole the maximum monthly output forecast model treating horizontal well drilling with its corresponding position;
Oil and gas production prediction module, for treating described in basis that the maximum monthly output forecast model of horizontal well drilling treats the Production Forecast Models that horizontal well drilling changed with the production time described in setting up, treats the oil and gas production that horizontal well drilling changed with the production time described in predicting.
Preferably, described reservoir structure exponential model is: R
s=γ
s(GR) × V
sh;
Wherein, R
sfor reservoir structure index; γ
s(GR) be GR variation variance radical function; GR is natural gamma ray logging value; V
shfor shale content;
Described production capacity heterogeneous body exponential model is:
In formula, Q
hfor production capacity heterogeneous body index; γ
s(DEN) be the variation variance radical function of density log; H
iit is the core intersection of i-th layer;
it is the degree of porosity of i-th layer; S
oiit is the oil saturation of i-th layer; G
iit is the barometric gradient of i-th layer; μ
iit is the viscosity of crude of i-th layer.
Preferably, the maximum monthly output forecast model of described drilling straight-hole is: Q
vmax=a × Q
h/ R
s+ b;
In formula, Q
vmaxfor the maximum monthly oil production of described drilling straight-hole; R
sfor reservoir structure index; Q
hfor production capacity heterogeneous body index; A is predetermined coefficient; B is preset constant.
Preferably, treat described in that the maximum monthly output forecast model of horizontal well drilling is: Q
hmax=c × Q
vmax d;
In formula, Q
hmaxfor the described maximum monthly oil production treating horizontal well drilling; Q
vmaxfor the maximum monthly oil production of described drilling straight-hole; C is predetermined coefficient; D is for presetting exponential constant.
Preferably, treat described in described basis that the maximum monthly output forecast model of horizontal well drilling is treated to be specially the Production Forecast Models that horizontal well drilling changed with the production time described in setting up:
Treat that the maximum monthly output forecast model of horizontal well drilling treats that horizontal well drilling to taper off the forecast model of rule change: Q with the production time described in setting up according to described
hmonth=Q
hmax× t
f;
In formula, Q
hmaxfor the described maximum monthly oil production treating horizontal well drilling; T is the production time in units of the moon; Q
hmonthfor treating the monthly oil production of horizontal well drilling described in t month production time; F is for presetting exponential constant, and its value is negative value.
Owing to there is very strong correlation between the maximum monthly output of drilling straight-hole and the maximum monthly output treating horizontal well drilling of its corresponding position, position, therefore, the embodiment of the present invention is no longer based on seepage theory, but utilize the data of drilling straight-hole of objective reality to set up the maximum monthly output forecast model of drilling straight-hole, then the maximum monthly output forecast model treating horizontal well drilling with this corresponding position, drilling straight-hole position can be obtained according to this model, last basis is treated that the maximum monthly output forecast model of horizontal well drilling is set up and is treated the Production Forecast Models that horizontal well drilling changed with the production time, thus make to dope treat the oil and gas production that horizontal well drilling changed with the production time and reality more identical, thus also achieve by formation testing just energy Accurate Prediction horizontal well oil and gas production.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Accompanying drawing described herein is used to provide a further understanding of the present invention, forms a application's part, does not form limitation of the invention.In the accompanying drawings:
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the Forecasting Methodology of the fine and close oil and gas reservoir horizontal well oil and gas production of the embodiment of the present invention;
Fig. 2 is the maximum moon oil and gas production and Q of drilling straight-hole in the embodiment of the present invention
h/ R
sgraph of relation;
Fig. 3 is the maximum monthly oil production graph of relation with the horizontal well of drilling straight-hole corresponding position in the embodiment of the present invention;
Fig. 4 is the graph of relation successively decreased with the production time with the monthly oil production of the horizontal well of drilling straight-hole corresponding position in the embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed description of the invention
For making the object, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention clearly understand, below in conjunction with embodiment and accompanying drawing, the present invention is described in further details.At this, schematic description and description of the present invention is for explaining the present invention, but not as a limitation of the invention.
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, the specific embodiment of the present invention is described in further detail.
Shown in figure 1, the Forecasting Methodology of the fine and close oil and gas reservoir horizontal well oil and gas production of the embodiment of the present invention comprises the following steps:
Step S101, sets up this reservoir structure exponential model of drilling straight-hole and production capacity heterogeneous body exponential model according to the drilling data of drilling straight-hole.
Reserves and sand thickness and structure, oil saturation, degree of porosity, the shale content etc. of fine and close oil and gas reservoir are in close relations, and the present inventor finds to utilize variogram sand thickness, structure and change correlation in space can be described out.Adopt the variogram in discrete data situation:
In formula, x is the direction of asking for variogram; H is delay distance; N (h) for spacing be the some logarithm of h; Z (x
i) be the variate-value of certain position; γ (h, x) is variogram.
After asking for Experiment variogram, spherical model can be adopted to carry out matching, the spatial structure of variable is discussed.Its general calculating formula is:
C in formula
0for nugget effect, when representing that h is very little, the change of point-to-point transmission variate-value; C is base station value, the degree of variation of reflection variable in research range; α is the intensity of variation of a certain variable.
By the matching to theoretical variogram, the relevant parameter of variogram can be determined.Usual employing variogram curve discusses the space structures of variable, and as h < α, the observation between any two points has correlation, and its degree of correlation reduces greatly with the change of h; As h > α, just no longer have correlation.α value is larger, and explanatory variable correlation is in one direction better; Otherwise then correlation is poor.
The formation of variogram shows, it does not rely on the particular location of variable in space, and only relevant with direction x to its delay distance h.Regionalized variable is used as log and by the Geological Variable that log obtains, the reservoir log that there are differences due to different-thickness, structure, physical property, oiliness etc. and Geological Variable have obvious morphological feature, thus the range on different directions differs greatly, and this explanation can apply variogram to study its spatial coherence.
In order to better reflect the longitudinal upper data degree at correlation and deviation average, adopting variation variance radical function, being:
γ
S＝[γ(0.5×α)+γ(α)+S
2]
0.5
Reservoir structure form and natural gamma ray logging curve, shale content distribute closely related, therefore, utilize GR variation variance radical function and shale content can set up reservoir structure exponential model:
R
S＝γ
S(GR)×V
Sh
R in formula
sfor reservoir structure index; γ
s(GR) be GR variation variance radical function; GR is natural gamma ray logging value, API; V
shfor shale content, decimal.
The oil-production capacity of compact reservoir and the variation variance radical function of density log curve, oil-gas Layer thickness, degree of porosity, oil saturation, strata pressure, viscosity of crude are closely related, establish the non-average exponential model of reflection crude oil production capacity, i.e. crude oil production capacity heterogeneous body index:
Q in formula
hfor the non-equal value index number of crude oil production capacity; γ
s(DEN) be the variation variance radical function of density log; H
ibe the core intersection of i-th layer, unit m;
be the degree of porosity of i-th layer, decimal; S
oibe the oil saturation of i-th layer, decimal; G
ifor the barometric gradient of i layer, units MPa/100m; μ
ibe the viscosity of crude of i-th layer, unit mPas.
In this step, inventor analyzes based on above reservoir structure exponential model and the production capacity heterogeneous body exponential model that can set up drilling straight-hole.Wherein, should be that drilling straight-hole has been that in study area, fine and close oil gas straight well has oil gas production material well section.
Step S102, utilizes the maximum monthly output forecast model of drilling straight-hole described in described reservoir structure exponential model and the foundation of described production capacity heterogeneous body exponential model.In the embodiment of the present invention, the maximum monthly output forecast model of drilling straight-hole is:
Q
Vmax＝a×Q
H/R
S+b；
In formula, Q
vmaxfor the maximum monthly oil production of described drilling straight-hole; R
sfor reservoir structure index; Q
hfor production capacity heterogeneous body index; A is predetermined coefficient; B is preset constant.
Step S103, the maximum monthly output forecast model according to described drilling straight-hole sets up the maximum monthly output forecast model treating horizontal well drilling with its corresponding position.In the embodiment of the present invention, treat that the maximum monthly output forecast model of horizontal well drilling is:
Q
Hmax＝c×Q
Vmax d；
In formula, Q
hmaxfor the described maximum monthly oil production treating horizontal well drilling; Q
vmaxfor the maximum monthly oil production of described drilling straight-hole; C is predetermined coefficient; D is for presetting exponential constant.
According to described, step S104, treats that the maximum monthly output forecast model of horizontal well drilling treats the Production Forecast Models that horizontal well drilling changed with the production time described in setting up, described in predicting, treats the oil and gas production that horizontal well drilling changed with the production time.Wherein, be specially:
Treat that the maximum monthly output forecast model of horizontal well drilling treats that horizontal well drilling to taper off the forecast model of rule change with the production time described in setting up according to described:
Q
Hmonth＝Q
Hmax×t
f；
In formula, Q
hmaxfor the described maximum monthly oil production treating horizontal well drilling; T is the production time in units of the moon; Q
hmonthfor treating the monthly oil production of horizontal well drilling described in t month production time; F is for presetting exponential constant, and its value is negative value.
Below for Ordos Basin prolongation group 7 sections of oily reservoirs of densification, the embody rule of the Forecasting Methodology of the fine and close oil and gas reservoir horizontal well oil and gas production of the embodiment of the present invention is described:
The maximum monthly oil production forecast model of the Ordos Basin prolongation group 7 sections of oily reservoir of the densification a certain drilling straight-hole A utilizing the Forecasting Methodology of the fine and close oil and gas reservoir horizontal well oil and gas production of the embodiment of the present invention to set up is:
Q
Vmax＝47.033×Q
H/R
S-1.3611
The maximum moon oil and gas production and Q of drilling straight-hole A in composition graphs 2
h/ R
sgraph of relation known, the real well data fit rate of this relation curve and this drilling straight-hole A is higher, and its multiple correlation coefficient can reach 0.97.
With this drilling straight-hole A treat corresponding position that the maximum monthly oil production forecast model of the maximum monthly output forecast model of horizontal well drilling B is:
Q
Hmax＝43.421×Q
Vmax 0.4132
Known with the maximum monthly oil production graph of relation of the horizontal well of drilling straight-hole corresponding position in composition graphs 3, maximum monthly oil production relation curve and this horizontal well B real well data fit rate of this horizontal well B are higher, and its multiple correlation coefficient can reach 0.95.
This treats that horizontal well drilling B with the Production Forecast Models that the production time changes is:
Q
Hmonth＝615.0×t-
0.028361
The graph of relation successively decreased with the production time with the monthly oil production of the horizontal well of drilling straight-hole corresponding position in composition graphs 4 is known, 615 is the maximum monthly output of this horizontal well B, carrying out forecast production to this well cumulative production of first 195 months is 2.2319 ten thousand tons, this well actual production follow-up is 2.1831 ten thousand tons, and its result of calculation coincidence rate is higher as seen.
After the Forecasting Methodology of the fine and close oil and gas reservoir horizontal well oil and gas production according to the embodiment of the present invention obtains the oil and gas production changed with the production time until horizontal well drilling, can according to the horizontal well moon running cost, oil gas price and setting minimum rate of return on investment etc. determine accumulative oil gas Limit of economic production, when a bite well Zi start produce to this well production time upper limit add up production oil and gas production higher than accumulative oil gas economic flow rate time, this well is effective value well, this horizontal well probing can be carried out, on the contrary, this well is invalid, abandons drilling this horizontal well.
Owing to there is very strong correlation between the maximum monthly output of drilling straight-hole and the maximum monthly output treating horizontal well drilling of its corresponding position, position, therefore, the Forecasting Methodology of the fine and close oil and gas reservoir horizontal well oil and gas production of the embodiment of the present invention is no longer based on seepage theory, but utilize the data of drilling straight-hole of objective reality to set up the maximum monthly output forecast model of drilling straight-hole, then the maximum monthly output forecast model treating horizontal well drilling with this corresponding position, drilling straight-hole position can be obtained according to this model, last basis is treated that the maximum monthly output forecast model of horizontal well drilling is set up and is treated the Production Forecast Models that horizontal well drilling changed with the production time, thus make to dope treat the oil and gas production that horizontal well drilling changed with the production time and reality more identical.
Corresponding with the Forecasting Methodology of the fine and close oil and gas reservoir horizontal well oil and gas production of the invention described above embodiment, the prediction unit of the fine and close oil and gas reservoir horizontal well oil and gas production of the embodiment of the present invention comprises that module set up by parameter model, the first yield model sets up module, the second yield model sets up module and oil and gas production prediction module.Wherein:
Module set up by parameter model, for setting up this reservoir structure exponential model of drilling straight-hole and production capacity heterogeneous body exponential model according to the drilling data of drilling straight-hole; Specifically see above-mentioned steps S101.
First yield model sets up module, for utilizing the maximum monthly output forecast model of drilling straight-hole described in described reservoir structure exponential model and the foundation of described production capacity heterogeneous body exponential model; Specifically see above-mentioned steps S102.
Second yield model sets up module, sets up for the maximum monthly output forecast model according to described drilling straight-hole the maximum monthly output forecast model treating horizontal well drilling with its corresponding position; Specifically see above-mentioned steps S103.
Oil and gas production prediction module, for treating described in basis that the maximum monthly output forecast model of horizontal well drilling treats the Production Forecast Models that horizontal well drilling changed with the production time described in setting up, treats the oil and gas production that horizontal well drilling changed with the production time described in predicting.Specifically see above-mentioned steps S104.
Owing to there is very strong correlation between the maximum monthly output of drilling straight-hole and the maximum monthly output treating horizontal well drilling of its corresponding position, position, therefore, the prediction unit of the fine and close oil and gas reservoir horizontal well oil and gas production of the embodiment of the present invention is no longer based on seepage theory, but utilize the data of drilling straight-hole of objective reality to set up the maximum monthly output forecast model of drilling straight-hole, then the maximum monthly output forecast model treating horizontal well drilling with this corresponding position, drilling straight-hole position can be obtained according to this model, last basis is treated that the maximum monthly output forecast model of horizontal well drilling is set up and is treated the Production Forecast Models that horizontal well drilling changed with the production time, thus make to dope treat the oil and gas production that horizontal well drilling changed with the production time and reality more identical.
Those skilled in the art can also recognize that various illustrative components, blocks, unit and step that the embodiment of the present invention is listed can be realized by hardware, software or both combinations.So to being realized the designing requirement depending on specific application and whole system by hardware or software.Those skilled in the art for often kind of specifically application, can use the function described in the realization of various method, but this realization can should not be understood to the scope exceeding embodiment of the present invention protection.
Various illustrative logical block described in the embodiment of the present invention, or unit can pass through general processor, digital signal processor, special IC (ASIC), field programmable gate array or other programmable logic device, discrete gate or transistor logic, discrete hardware components, or the design of above-mentioned any combination realizes or operates described function.General processor can be microprocessor, and alternatively, this general processor also can be any traditional processor, controller, microcontroller or state machine.Processor also can be realized by the combination of calculation element, such as digital signal processor and microprocessor, multi-microprocessor, and a Digital Signal Processor Core combined by one or more microprocessor, or other similar configuration any realizes.
The software module that method described in the embodiment of the present invention or the step of algorithm directly can embed hardware, processor performs or the combination of both.Software module can be stored in the storage medium of other arbitrary form in RAM memory, flash memory, ROM memory, eprom memory, eeprom memory, register, hard disk, moveable magnetic disc, CD-ROM or this area.Exemplarily, storage medium can be connected with processor, with make processor can from storage medium reading information, and write information can be deposited to storage medium.Alternatively, storage medium can also be integrated in processor.Processor and storage medium can be arranged in ASIC, and ASIC can be arranged in user terminal.Alternatively, processor and storage medium also can be arranged in the different parts in user terminal.
In one or more exemplary design, the above-mentioned functions described by the embodiment of the present invention can realize in any combination of hardware, software, firmware or this three.If realized in software, these functions can store on the medium with computer-readable, or are transmitted on the medium of computer-readable with one or more instruction or code form.Computer readable medium comprises computer storage medium and is convenient to make to allow computer program transfer to the telecommunication media in other place from a place.Storage medium can be that any general or special computer can the useable medium of access.Such as, such computer readable media can include but not limited to RAM, ROM, EEPROM, CD-ROM or other optical disc storage, disk storage or other magnetic storage device, or other anyly may be used for carrying or store the medium that can be read the program code of form with instruction or data structure and other by general or special computer or general or special processor.In addition, any connection can be properly termed computer readable medium, such as, if software is by a coaxial cable, fiber optic cables, twisted-pair feeder, Digital Subscriber Line (DSL) or being also comprised in defined computer readable medium with wireless way for transmittings such as such as infrared, wireless and microwaves from a web-site, server or other remote resource.Described video disc (disk) and disk (disc) comprise Zip disk, radium-shine dish, CD, DVD, floppy disk and Blu-ray Disc, and disk is usually with magnetic duplication data, and video disc carries out optical reproduction data with laser usually.Above-mentioned combination also can be included in computer readable medium.
Above-described specific embodiment; object of the present invention, technical scheme and beneficial effect are further described; be understood that; the foregoing is only specific embodiments of the invention; the protection domain be not intended to limit the present invention; within the spirit and principles in the present invention all, any amendment made, equivalent replacement, improvement etc., all should be included within protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. a Forecasting Methodology for fine and close oil and gas reservoir horizontal well oil and gas production, is characterized in that, comprise the following steps:
This reservoir structure exponential model of drilling straight-hole and production capacity heterogeneous body exponential model is set up according to the drilling data of drilling straight-hole;
Utilize the maximum monthly output forecast model of drilling straight-hole described in described reservoir structure exponential model and the foundation of described production capacity heterogeneous body exponential model;
Maximum monthly output forecast model according to described drilling straight-hole sets up the maximum monthly output forecast model treating horizontal well drilling with its corresponding position;
Treat that the maximum monthly output forecast model of horizontal well drilling treats the Production Forecast Models that horizontal well drilling changed with the production time described in setting up according to described, described in predicting, treat the oil and gas production that horizontal well drilling changed with the production time.
2. the Forecasting Methodology of fine and close oil and gas reservoir horizontal well oil and gas production according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, described reservoir structure exponential model is: R
s=γ
s(GR) × V
sh;
Wherein, R
sfor reservoir structure index; γ
s(GR) be GR variation variance radical function; GR is natural gamma ray logging value; V
shfor shale content;
Described production capacity heterogeneous body exponential model is:
In formula, Q
hfor production capacity heterogeneous body index; γ
s(DEN) be the variation variance radical function of density log; H
iit is the core intersection of i-th layer;
it is the degree of porosity of i-th layer; S
oiit is the oil saturation of i-th layer; G
iit is the barometric gradient of i-th layer; μ
iit is the viscosity of crude of i-th layer.
3. the Forecasting Methodology of fine and close oil and gas reservoir horizontal well oil and gas production according to claim 1, is characterized in that, the maximum monthly output forecast model of described drilling straight-hole is: Q
vmax=a × Q
h/ R
s+ b;
In formula, Q
vmaxfor the maximum monthly oil production of described drilling straight-hole; R
sfor reservoir structure index; Q
hfor production capacity heterogeneous body index; A is predetermined coefficient; B is preset constant.
4. the Forecasting Methodology of fine and close oil and gas reservoir horizontal well oil and gas production according to claim 1, is characterized in that, described in treat that the maximum monthly output forecast model of horizontal well drilling is: Q
hmax=c × Q
vmax d;
In formula, Q
hmaxfor the described maximum monthly oil production treating horizontal well drilling; Q
vmaxfor the maximum monthly oil production of described drilling straight-hole; C is predetermined coefficient; D is for presetting exponential constant.
5. the Forecasting Methodology of fine and close oil and gas reservoir horizontal well oil and gas production according to claim 1, is characterized in that,
Treat described in described basis that the maximum monthly output forecast model of horizontal well drilling is treated to be specially the Production Forecast Models that horizontal well drilling changed with the production time described in setting up:
Treat that the maximum monthly output forecast model of horizontal well drilling treats that horizontal well drilling to taper off the forecast model of rule change: Q with the production time described in setting up according to described
hmonth=Q
hmax× t
f;
In formula, Q
hmaxfor the described maximum monthly oil production treating horizontal well drilling; T is the production time in units of the moon; Q
hmonthfor treating the monthly oil production of horizontal well drilling described in t month production time; F is for presetting exponential constant, and its value is negative value.
6. a prediction unit for fine and close oil and gas reservoir horizontal well oil and gas production, is characterized in that, comprising:
Module set up by parameter model, for setting up this reservoir structure exponential model of drilling straight-hole and production capacity heterogeneous body exponential model according to the drilling data of drilling straight-hole;
First yield model sets up module, for utilizing the maximum monthly output forecast model of drilling straight-hole described in described reservoir structure exponential model and the foundation of described production capacity heterogeneous body exponential model;
Second yield model sets up module, sets up for the maximum monthly output forecast model according to described drilling straight-hole the maximum monthly output forecast model treating horizontal well drilling with its corresponding position;
Oil and gas production prediction module, for treating described in basis that the maximum monthly output forecast model of horizontal well drilling treats the Production Forecast Models that horizontal well drilling changed with the production time described in setting up, treats the oil and gas production that horizontal well drilling changed with the production time described in predicting.
7. the prediction unit of fine and close oil and gas reservoir horizontal well oil and gas production according to claim 6, it is characterized in that, described reservoir structure exponential model is: R
s=γ
s(GR) × V
sh;
Wherein, R
sfor reservoir structure index; γ
s(GR) be GR variation variance radical function; GR is natural gamma ray logging value; V
shfor shale content;
Described production capacity heterogeneous body exponential model is:
In formula, Q
hfor production capacity heterogeneous body index; γ
s(DEN) be the variation variance radical function of density log; H
iit is the core intersection of i-th layer;
it is the degree of porosity of i-th layer; S
oiit is the oil saturation of i-th layer; G
iit is the barometric gradient of i-th layer; μ
iit is the viscosity of crude of i-th layer.
8. the prediction unit of fine and close oil and gas reservoir horizontal well oil and gas production according to claim 6, is characterized in that, the maximum monthly output forecast model of described drilling straight-hole is: Q
vmax=a × Q
h/ R
s+ b;
In formula, Q
vmaxfor the maximum monthly oil production of described drilling straight-hole; R
sfor reservoir structure index; Q
hfor production capacity heterogeneous body index; A is predetermined coefficient; B is preset constant.
9. the prediction unit of fine and close oil and gas reservoir horizontal well oil and gas production according to claim 6, is characterized in that, described in treat that the maximum monthly output forecast model of horizontal well drilling is: Q
hmax=c × Q
vmax d;
In formula, Q
hmaxfor the described maximum monthly oil production treating horizontal well drilling; Q
vmaxfor the maximum monthly oil production of described drilling straight-hole; C is predetermined coefficient; D is for presetting exponential constant.
10. the prediction unit of fine and close oil and gas reservoir horizontal well oil and gas production according to claim 6, is characterized in that,
Treat described in described basis that the maximum monthly output forecast model of horizontal well drilling is treated to be specially the Production Forecast Models that horizontal well drilling changed with the production time described in setting up:
Treat that the maximum monthly output forecast model of horizontal well drilling treats that horizontal well drilling to taper off the forecast model of rule change: Q with the production time described in setting up according to described
hmonth=Q
hmax× t
f;
In formula, Q
hmaxfor the described maximum monthly oil production treating horizontal well drilling; T is the production time in units of the moon; Q
hmonthfor treating the monthly oil production of horizontal well drilling described in t month production time; F is for presetting exponential constant, and its value is negative value.
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