CN104376381A - Method for predicting total electricity consumption based on fixed base unit output value power consumption - Google Patents
Method for predicting total electricity consumption based on fixed base unit output value power consumption Download PDFInfo
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- CN104376381A CN104376381A CN201410655831.2A CN201410655831A CN104376381A CN 104376381 A CN104376381 A CN 104376381A CN 201410655831 A CN201410655831 A CN 201410655831A CN 104376381 A CN104376381 A CN 104376381A
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/04—Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem"
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q50/00—Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
- G06Q50/06—Electricity, gas or water supply
Abstract
The invention provides a method for predicting total electricity consumption based on fixed base unit output value power consumption. The method overcomes the defects of a traditional output value unit consumption method, the GDP is converted into a fixed base value, the GDP and the power consumption have the same comparison base, the effect of an industrial structure on the fixed base unit output value power consumption is taken into consideration, a fixed base unit output value power consumption prediction model is established, and therefore the total electricity consumption is predicted. The industrial structure duty ratio serves as the explaining variable, the fixed base unit output value power consumption prediction model is established, the fixed base unit output value power consumption in the future years is predicted, then, the total electricity consumption in the future years is predicted, and the electric quantity demand predicting and medium and long term power planning are facilitated.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to quantity of electricity demand forecast technical field, specifically a kind of method based on determining base unit output value power consumption prediction Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption.
Background technology
Unit output value power consumption is the electricity that generation one per GDP consumes, the i.e. ratio of Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption and GDP, the relation between reflection electricity consumption and economic growth.The change of the industrial structure can affect the change of unit output value power consumption.Some is learned and uses output value unit consumption method to predict Shengchi County's power consumption in 2010, and utilize average annual progressive increase rate method, method of elasticity modulus, natural increase strengthens industrial load method and carries out effect to predicting the outcome of output value unit consumption method, analyze find output value unit consumption method compare more accurate.Also some scholar is by finding the research of 2000-2008 Fenghua City output value unit consumption, and its output value unit consumption depends on the unit consumption level of secondary industry to a great extent, and according to the overall city planning in this city, utilizes output value unit consumption method to predict Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption.Also some scholar selects the annual data of Shanghai City 1990-2010 as sample data, adopt output value unit consumption method, method of elasticity modulus and the Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption of Regression Forecast to Shanghai City 2011-2020 to predict, the results contrast that result shows three kinds of Forecasting Methodologies is close.The research of above-mentioned scholar is all adopt traditional output value unit consumption method prediction Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption, but GDP is a kind of nominal amount containing price factor, and Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption is quantity of goods produced, and this method does not have identical comparison basis.
Summary of the invention
The object of the present invention is to provide a kind of method based on determining base unit output value power consumption prediction Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption, the present invention is by determining base unit output value power consumption, set up the Linear Regression Forecasting Model determined between base unit output value power consumption and industrial added value accounting, that predicts the following time determines base unit output value power consumption, and then the Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption in prediction following time.
Technical scheme of the present invention is: the present invention is based on the method for determining base unit output value power consumption prediction Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption, comprise the following steps:
(1) nominal GDP is converted into can the rate of exchange calculate determine base GDP: consider the impact of price factor on GDP and the availability of data, choose herein and determine base CPI price process is done to nominal GDP;
(2) determine base unit output value power consumption, and calculate historical years determine base unit output value power consumption;
(3) base unit output value power consumption forecast model is determined in foundation;
In close relations between the industrial structure and Ding Ji unit output value power consumption, the variation of the industrial structure can make to determine base unit output value power consumption and change thereupon, because tertiary industries accounting exists perfect collinearity, all can not release variable as solution to model.Consider tertiary industries separately to economic total volume increase contribution degree, and with determine the correlativity of base unit output value power consumption, choose second and third industrial added value accounting and study determining base energy consumption elasticity, set up metering model:
e
t＝c+α*SR
t+β*TR
t
Wherein e
trepresent that the t phase determines base unit output value power consumption, SR
t, TR
tbe respectively second and third industrial added value accounting of t phase, c is constant term, and α is SR
tcoefficient, β is TR
tcoefficient;
(4) according to industrial structure re-set target and economic growth target obtain predict year second and third industrial added value accounting and with can the rate of exchange calculate GDP predicted value, what obtain project period determines base unit output value power consumption predicted value, and then the Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption of computational prediction phase:
E
t=determine base GDP
t* base unit output value power consumption is determined
Wherein, E
tfor the Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption of t phase.
Described step (2) determines base unit output value power consumption:
The present invention defines base unit output value power consumption, and base unit output value power consumption forecast model determined by structure, industrial structure accounting and the Ding Ji GDP predicted value of predicting year is obtained according to the industrial structure re-set target in country or area planning report and economic growth target, thus obtain time span of forecast determine base unit output value power consumption, and then obtain the Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption predicted value predicting the time, to contribute to carrying out power planning.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is method flow diagram of the present invention;
Fig. 2 determines base unit output value power consumption and second and third industrial added value accounting trend graph.
Specific implementation method
Below, the present invention is further illustrated in conjunction with specific embodiments.
The present invention by GDP is converted into can the rate of exchange calculate determine base value, reject the impact of price factor, the power consumption degree that base unit output value power consumption accurately can reflect social production is determined with what determine that base GDP calculates, and according to the quantitative relationship determined between base unit output value power consumption and second and third industrial added value accounting, that predicts the following time determines base unit output value power consumption, and then prediction Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption, contribute to the formulation of electricity needs planning.
Example is predicted as with Anhui Province's 2013-2015 Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption.First build and determine base unit output value power consumption forecast model, secondly predict that 2013-2015's determines base unit output value power consumption, finally calculate the Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption predicted value of 2013-2015.As shown in Figure 1, based on the method for determining base unit output value power consumption prediction Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption, comprise the following steps:
S1, nominal GDP is converted into can the rate of exchange calculate determine base GDP;
In the present embodiment, Anhui Province is adopted to be correlated with annual data, data from statistics bureau of Anhui Province website and power economy Institute for Research and Technology of Anhui Province.Take 2005-2012 as the sample phase, 2013-2015 is time span of forecast, and the related data of sample phase is as shown in table 1:
Table 1
S2, determine base unit output value power consumption, and calculate Anhui Province's historical years determine base unit output value power consumption;
(1) determine base unit output value power consumption: the conventional single output value power consumption announced with ASSOCIATE STATISTICS department is similar, determine the variation relation between the reflection economic development of base unit output value power consumption and power consumption, but there are differences in computing method.The computing formula of determining base unit output value power consumption is as follows,
(2) tertiary industries added value accounting is calculated.
2005-2012 Anhui Province determines base unit output value power consumption and second and third industrial added value accounting alteration trend figure as shown in Figure 2, and as shown in Figure 2, Anhui Province determines base unit output value power consumption and tertiary industry accounting tendency is basically identical, and entirety presents downtrending.The sample issue that above-mentioned steps calculates is according in table 2:
Table 2
Base unit output value power consumption forecast model is determined in S3, foundation;
According to data in table 2, the related coefficient of determining between base unit output value power consumption and tertiary industries added value accounting is calculated with CORREL function in excel, be respectively 0.888 ,-0.902,0.902, the correlativity of determining base energy consumption elasticity and tertiary industries added value accounting is all stronger.Because tertiary industries accounting also exists perfect collinearity, considering the consumption of each industry to power consumption, choosing secondary industry accounting and tertiary industry accounting is studied determining base unit output value power consumption, its regression equation is:
e
t＝0.2027-0.1005*SR
t+0.2317*TR
t
Wherein, e
trepresent that the t phase determines base unit output value power consumption, SR
tfor the t phase two produces added value accounting, TR
tfor t phase tertiary industry added value accounting.
S4, second and third industrial added value accounting waiting the industrial structure re-set target in planning and economic growth target to obtain 2013-2015 according to Anhui Province " 12 " planning are respectively 55:33,55:33,55:34 and with nineteen ninety be can the rate of exchange calculate base GDP predicted value of determining be respectively 6782.485,7260.51,8204.581 hundred million yuan; Accounting is substituted in above-mentioned regression forecasting equation, 2013-2015 can be obtained and determine base unit output value power consumption predicted value and be respectively 0.2239,0.2239,0.2262.
The Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption of computational prediction phase again:
E
t=determine base GDP
t* base unit output value power consumption is determined
Show that 2013-2015 Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption predicted value is about 1518.5,1625.628,1855.876 hundred million kilowatt hours according to above-mentioned formulae discovery.
The above embodiment is only be described the preferred embodiment of the present invention; not scope of the present invention is limited; under not departing from the present invention and designing the prerequisite of spirit; the various distortion that those of ordinary skill in the art make technical scheme of the present invention and improvement, all should fall in protection domain that claims of the present invention determine.
Claims (2)
1., based on a method of determining base unit output value power consumption prediction Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption, it is characterized in that comprising the following steps:
(1) nominal GDP is converted into can the rate of exchange calculate determine base GDP: consider the impact of price factor on GDP and the availability of data, choose herein and determine base CPI price process is done to nominal GDP;
(2) determine base unit output value power consumption, and calculate historical years determine base unit output value power consumption;
(3) base unit output value power consumption forecast model is determined in foundation;
In close relations between the industrial structure and Ding Ji unit output value power consumption, the variation of the industrial structure can make to determine base unit output value power consumption and change thereupon, because tertiary industries accounting exists perfect collinearity, all can not release variable as solution to model.Consider tertiary industries separately to economic total volume increase contribution degree, and with determine the correlativity of base unit output value power consumption, choose second and third industrial added value accounting and study determining base energy consumption elasticity, set up metering model:
e
t＝c+α*SR
t+β*TR
t
Wherein e
trepresent that the t phase determines base unit output value power consumption, SR
t, TR
tbe respectively second and third industrial added value accounting of t phase, c is constant term, and α is SR
tcoefficient, β is TR
tcoefficient;
(4) according to industrial structure re-set target and economic growth target obtain predict year second and third industrial added value accounting and with can the rate of exchange calculate GDP predicted value, what obtain project period determines base unit output value power consumption predicted value, and then the Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption of computational prediction phase:
E
t=determine base GDP
t* base unit output value power consumption is determined
Wherein, E
tfor the Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption of t phase.
2. the method based on determining base unit output value power consumption prediction Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, described step (2) determines base unit output value power consumption:
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Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN105976072A (en) * | 2016-05-31 | 2016-09-28 | 中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所 | Power demand prediction method based on S-shaped model |
| CN110675277A (en) * | 2019-09-12 | 2020-01-10 | 国网上海市电力公司 | Decomposition calculation method for power consumption change of industrial unit output value |
Citations (3)
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| US20100082172A1 (en) * | 2008-09-25 | 2010-04-01 | Korea Electric Power Corporation | Load forecasting analysis system for calculating customer baseline load |
| CN103413187A (en) * | 2013-09-04 | 2013-11-27 | 国家电网公司 | Method for predicting annual power consumption based on elastic coefficient |
| CN103679289A (en) * | 2013-12-09 | 2014-03-26 | 国家电网公司 | Power load prediction method based on multiple regression extrapolation method |
-
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Patent Citations (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US20100082172A1 (en) * | 2008-09-25 | 2010-04-01 | Korea Electric Power Corporation | Load forecasting analysis system for calculating customer baseline load |
| CN103413187A (en) * | 2013-09-04 | 2013-11-27 | 国家电网公司 | Method for predicting annual power consumption based on elastic coefficient |
| CN103679289A (en) * | 2013-12-09 | 2014-03-26 | 国家电网公司 | Power load prediction method based on multiple regression extrapolation method |
Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN105976072A (en) * | 2016-05-31 | 2016-09-28 | 中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所 | Power demand prediction method based on S-shaped model |
| CN110675277A (en) * | 2019-09-12 | 2020-01-10 | 国网上海市电力公司 | Decomposition calculation method for power consumption change of industrial unit output value |
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