CN104281785A - Confidence level-based method and device for predicting blast vibration velocity - Google Patents

Abstract

The embodiment of the invention discloses a confidence level-based method and device for predicting the blast vibration velocity. The method comprises the following steps: setting a velocity difference between an actual blast vibration velocity and a prediction vibration velocity, calculating a log value of the velocity difference to obtain an error and obtain a bias-free estimation of a sample data set which is expressed by a blast chemical amount and a blast center distance; calculating a confidence interval of the error meeting the predetermined confidence level in the confidence level based on the bias-free estimation obtained by calculating; obtaining an upper limit value of the confidence interval of the error in the confidence level, calculating the safety coefficient of the blast vibration velocity based on the upper limit value of the confidence interval and applying the safety coefficient to a Sodev empirical formula for predicting the blast vibration velocity. Due to the adoption of the confidence level-based method and device for predicting the blast vibration velocity, the reliability of the prediction of the blast vibration velocity can be improved.

Description

A kind of method based on confidence level prediction Blasting Vibration Velocity and device

Technical field

The present invention relates to engineering explosion safety technique, particularly relate to a kind of method based on confidence level prediction Blasting Vibration Velocity and device.

Background technology

Since reform and opening-up, along with developing rapidly of China's Engineering Project Construction and improving constantly of technology, the new technologies such as engineering explosion are widely applied at a large amount of engineering construction field such as mining, hydroelectric project, road traffic, the construction of nuclear power station and underground space comprehensive development and utilization, achieve much significant achievement, greatly promote progress and the innovation of blasting technique.But, engineering explosion, bringing to engineering construction fast and efficiently simultaneously, due to vibration effect of explosion, also causes the negative effects such as the vibration to surrounding environment, pollution, noise, even there is engineering explosion accident, cause periphery affiliated facility to destroy and casualties.

Along with the raising of people's quality of life, the attention degree of people to vibration effect of explosion harmfulness is also more and more higher, such as, and the mine blasting under engineering explosion field and important construction safety assessment attenuation of seismic waves effect.For example, current high-rise is removed and mining, most employing engineering explosion technology, and the vibration caused by engineering explosion, cause the unstability of the works facilities such as underground passage, mining area high gradient slope or above ground structure under the effect of blasting vibration power and destruction possibly.Thus engineering explosion research obtains the extensive concern of various circles of society, and wherein, vibration effect of explosion research becomes most active hot research problem.

In vibration effect of explosion research, many explosive experts think, adopting Blasting Vibration Velocity to describe vibration effect of explosion intensity and have good representativeness, is the best standard estimating works facility flutter failure grade, is the important parameter characterizing vibration effect of explosion.Thus, in engineering explosion, the control and prediction of Blasting Vibration Velocity seems particularly important.

The domestic and international prediction for Blasting Vibration Velocity at present, the experimental formula under the given basis function form of main employing calculates Blasting Vibration Velocity.Wherein, comparatively accurate with Sa road Paderewski experimental formula prediction Blasting Vibration Velocity, in Sa road Paderewski experimental formula, calculated the Two Variables in Sa road Paderewski experimental formula by employing regression analysis, thus can based on the variable prediction Blasting Vibration Velocity calculated.But from the ultimate principle of regression analysis, the Blasting Vibration Velocity reliability of prediction is only 50%, namely there is the probability of 50%, Blasting Vibration Velocity predicted value is made to be less than actual Blasting Vibration Velocity, thus bring potential safety hazard, make Blasting Vibration Velocity forecasting reliability lower, the demand of people to engineering explosion security can not be met.

Summary of the invention

In view of this, the embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of method based on confidence level prediction Blasting Vibration Velocity and device, improves Blasting Vibration Velocity forecasting reliability.

For achieving the above object, embodiments of the invention adopt following technical scheme:

On the one hand, the embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of method based on confidence level prediction Blasting Vibration Velocity, comprising:

Arrange the velocity contrast of actual Blasting Vibration Velocity and prediction Blasting Vibration Velocity, the logarithm value of computing velocity difference, obtains error, obtains with neat quick-fried dose and the quick-fried heart unbiased estimator apart from the sample data collection represented;

Based on the unbiased estimator calculated, calculate the fiducial interval of described error in described confidence level of the satisfied confidence level pre-set;

Obtain the higher limit of error in the fiducial interval of described confidence level, the higher limit based on described fiducial interval calculates the safety coefficient of Blasting Vibration Velocity, described safety coefficient is applied to Sa road Paderewski experimental formula to predict Blasting Vibration Velocity.

The method based on confidence level prediction Blasting Vibration Velocity that the embodiment of the present invention provides, according to sample data collection and the confidence level error of calculation difference of the logarithm value of prediction Blasting Vibration Velocity (logarithm value of actual Blasting Vibration Velocity with) that the pre-sets higher limit in the fiducial interval of confidence level, higher limit is utilized to calculate the safety coefficient of Blasting Vibration Velocity, thus in Sa road Paderewski experimental formula, consider the safety coefficient of the Blasting Vibration Velocity predicted, the safety of important structure building around quick-fried district can be guaranteed to greatest extent, thus minimizing potential safety hazard, promote Blasting Vibration Velocity forecasting reliability.

On the other hand, the embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of device based on confidence level prediction Blasting Vibration Velocity, comprising: unbiased estimator acquisition module, fiducial interval computing module, safety coefficient computing module and predictor formula generation module, wherein,

Unbiased estimator acquisition module, for arranging the velocity contrast of actual Blasting Vibration Velocity and prediction Blasting Vibration Velocity, the logarithm value of computing velocity difference, obtains error, obtains with neat quick-fried dose and the quick-fried heart unbiased estimator apart from the sample data collection represented;

Fiducial interval computing module, for based on the unbiased estimator calculated, calculates the fiducial interval of described error in described confidence level of the satisfied confidence level pre-set;

Safety coefficient computing module, for obtaining the higher limit of error in the fiducial interval of described confidence level, the higher limit based on described fiducial interval calculates the safety coefficient of Blasting Vibration Velocity;

Predictor formula generation module, for described safety coefficient is applied to Sa road Paderewski experimental formula, the Sa road Paderewski experimental formula that is improved is to predict Blasting Vibration Velocity.

The device based on confidence level prediction Blasting Vibration Velocity that the embodiment of the present invention provides, unbiased estimator acquisition module foundation sample data collection and the confidence level pre-set calculate unbiased estimator, the fiducial interval computing module error of calculation (logarithm value of actual Blasting Vibration Velocity and the difference of the logarithm value of prediction Blasting Vibration Velocity) is in the fiducial interval of confidence level, safety coefficient computing module utilizes the fiducial interval of confidence level to ask for higher limit, higher limit is utilized to calculate the safety coefficient of Blasting Vibration Velocity, predictor formula generation module considers the safety coefficient of the Blasting Vibration Velocity predicted in Sa road Paderewski experimental formula, thus the safety of important structure building around quick-fried district can be guaranteed to greatest extent, thus minimizing potential safety hazard, promote Blasting Vibration Velocity forecasting reliability.

Accompanying drawing explanation

In order to be illustrated more clearly in the embodiment of the present invention or technical scheme of the prior art, be briefly described to the accompanying drawing used required in embodiment or description of the prior art below, apparently, accompanying drawing in the following describes is only some embodiments of the present invention, for those of ordinary skill in the art, under the prerequisite not paying creative work, other accompanying drawing can also be obtained according to these accompanying drawings.

Fig. 1 is the method flow schematic diagram of the embodiment of the present invention based on confidence level prediction Blasting Vibration Velocity;

The probability density distribution schematic diagram of Fig. 2 to be embodiment of the present invention confidence level be t function of 99%

Fig. 3 is that the embodiment of the present invention monitors the sampled data set obtained and the fiducial interval schematic diagram predicted based on 99% confidence level;

Fig. 4 is the apparatus structure schematic diagram of the embodiment of the present invention based on confidence level prediction Blasting Vibration Velocity.

Embodiment

Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, the embodiment of the present invention is described in detail.

Should be clear and definite, described embodiment is only the present invention's part embodiment, instead of whole embodiments.Based on the embodiment in the present invention, those of ordinary skill in the art, not making other embodiments all obtained under creative work prerequisite, belong to the scope of protection of the invention.

Fig. 1 is the method flow schematic diagram of the embodiment of the present invention based on confidence level prediction Blasting Vibration Velocity.See Fig. 1, the method comprises:

Step 101, arrange the velocity contrast of actual Blasting Vibration Velocity and prediction Blasting Vibration Velocity, the logarithm value of computing velocity difference, obtains error, obtains with neat quick-fried dose and the quick-fried heart unbiased estimator apart from the sample data collection represented;

In this step, if sample data collection is:

X={x ₁, x ₂, K, x _i, K, x _n, wherein, x _ifor sample data concentrates i-th sample data, n is natural number.X is represented about with neat quick-fried dose and quick-fried heart distance _i, to be follow-uply described in detail again.

In the embodiment of the present invention, in order to based on confidence level prediction Blasting Vibration Velocity, need to carry out some distortion to Sa road Paderewski experimental formula.

The Sa road Paderewski experimental formula of existing prediction Blasting Vibration Velocity is as follows:

$V=K*{\left(\frac{Q^{\frac{1}{3}}}{R}\right)}^{\mathrm{\α}}---\left(1\right)$

In formula,

V is the Blasting Vibration Velocity (cm/s) of the object of protection location particle of prediction, namely predicts Blasting Vibration Velocity;

K is the coefficient relevant to the geologic condition between blow-up point to object of protection;

Q is neat quick-fried dose (kg);

R is that the quick-fried heart is apart from (m);

α is the damped expoential relevant to the geologic condition between blow-up point to object of protection.

Wherein, for comparatively hard rock scene, K=50 ~ 150, α=1.3 ~ 1.5; For medium hard rock scene, K=150 ~ 250, α=1.5 ~ 1.8; For hazardous rock scene, K=150 ~ 250, α=1.8 ~ 2.0.

The existing method according to Sa road Paderewski experimental formula prediction Blasting Vibration Velocity, for different scenes (geologic condition), utilize regression analysis calculating K, α two parameters respectively, and carry out Blasting Vibration Velocity prediction based on the parameter that regression analysis calculates, to guarantee the safety of blow-up point peripheral region target structures thing to greatest extent according to the Blasting Vibration Velocity of prediction.But from the knowledge of mathematical statistics, based on least square method, regretional analysis is carried out to K, α, the Blasting Vibration Velocity reliability of prediction is 50%, the probability making Blasting Vibration Velocity predicted value be less than actual Blasting Vibration Velocity reaches 50%, Blasting Vibration Velocity forecasting reliability is lower, thus bring potential safety hazard, be unfavorable for the safety ensureing target structures thing.

In the embodiment of the present invention, consider to improve Sa road Paderewski experimental formula, on the basis of the sample data obtained in actual monitoring, propose based on confidence level method computationally secure coefficient, make Sa road Paderewski experimental formula can carry out Blasting Vibration Velocity prediction based on the basis of safety coefficient, thus promote its forecasting reliability.

Taken the logarithm in formula (1) both sides, can obtain:

$\ln V=\ln K+\mathrm{\α}*\ln \left(\frac{Q^{\frac{1}{3}}}{R}\right)---\left(2\right)$

In the embodiment of the present invention, order:

$y=\ln V,b=\ln K,x=\ln \left(\frac{Q^{\frac{1}{3}}}{R}\right)$

Then Sa road Paderewski experimental formula can be deformed into the form of a linear equation:

y＝ax+b (3)

In formula (3); y obtains by regretional analysis; it is predicted value; the natural logarithm value (referred to as prediction logarithm value) of the Blasting Vibration Velocity (Blasting Vibration Velocity predicted value) of the object of protection location particle namely predicted; understand the natural logarithm value with the actual measurement Blasting Vibration Velocity at the blow-up point scene of reality, namely there is certain error in the logarithm value (referred to as actual logarithm value) of actual Blasting Vibration Velocity.

In the embodiment of the present invention, if Y is the actual prediction logarithm value of object of protection location particle at x place of prediction, ε is error, then actual logarithm value has following relation with prediction logarithm value:

Y＝y+ε＝αx+b+ε (4)

In the embodiment of the present invention, although error ε can just can bear, its occurrence cannot carry out Accurate Prediction.

In the embodiment of the present invention, based on the ultimate principle of algorithm with regress analysis method, this error known obeys certain normal distribution:

$\mathrm{\ϵ}~N(0,[1+\frac{1}{n}+\frac{{(x_i-\stackrel{\‾}{x})}^2}{S_{\mathrm{xx}}}\left]{\mathrm{\σ}}^2\right)---\left(5\right)$

In formula,

N is the sample data amount of sample data collection, is natural number;

X _ifor i-th sample data of sample data collection;

$x_i=\ln \left(\frac{Q^{\frac{1}{3}}}{R_i}\right)$

R _ifor i-th quick-fried heart distance of sample data collection;

for the sample data average of sample data collection;

$\stackrel{\‾}{x}=\frac{\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{x}_i}{n}$

S _xxfor sample data collection variance and;

$S_{\mathrm{xx}}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{(x_i-\stackrel{\‾}{x})}^2$

σ ²for sample data collection variance.

Like this, based on the ultimate principle of algorithm with regress analysis method, the analysis that can will be converted into the analysis of Blasting Vibration Velocity error sample data collection variance, in formula (5), n, x _i, s _xxbe known quantity, σ ²for unknown quantity.

In the embodiment of the present invention, for σ in formula (5) ²unknown situation, can utilize sample data collection and confidence level to determine its unbiased estimator (unbiased estimator)

${\widehat{\mathrm{\σ}}}^2=\frac{Q_e}{n-2}=\frac{1}{n-2}(S_{\mathrm{YY}}-{\mathrm{\λS}}_{\mathrm{xY}})---\left(6\right)$

In formula,

$S_{\mathrm{YY}}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{(Y_i-\stackrel{\‾}{Y})}^2;$

$S_{\mathrm{xY}}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}(x_i-\stackrel{\‾}{x})(Y_i-\stackrel{\‾}{Y});$

for unbiased estimator;

λ is the level of signifiance, and (1-λ) is confidence level.

In the embodiment of the present invention,

$\stackrel{\‾}{Y}=\frac{\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{Y}_i}{n}.$

In practical application, its logarithm can be got by the actual Blasting Vibration Velocity ice hockey measuring each sampled point between blow-up point to object of protection and obtain Y _i.

In formula (6),

$\frac{(n-2){\widehat{\mathrm{\σ}}}^2}{{\mathrm{\σ}}^2}=\frac{Q_e}{{\mathrm{\σ}}^2}~{\mathrm{\χ}}^2(n-2)$

Like this, in formula (6), S _yY, S _xY, n degree can be calculated by sample data collection, thus, according to sample data collection and formula (6), can obtain unbiased estimator

Step 102, based on the unbiased estimator calculated, calculates the fiducial interval of described error in described confidence level of the satisfied confidence level pre-set;

In this step, by the distribution situation in mathematics formula, the known unbiased estimator that calculates and error meet following formula, i.e. t distribution:

$\frac{\mathrm{\ϵ}}{\widehat{\mathrm{\σ}}\sqrt{1+\frac{1}{n}+\frac{{(x_i-\stackrel{\‾}{x})}^2}{S_{\mathrm{xx}}}}}~t(n-2)---\left(7\right)$

For the confidence level pre-set (1-λ), have:

$P\{-t_{\mathrm{\λ}/2}(n-2)\≤\frac{\mathrm{\ϵ}}{\widehat{\mathrm{\σ}}\sqrt{1+\frac{1}{n}+\frac{{(x_i-\stackrel{\‾}{x})}^2}{S_{\mathrm{xx}}}}}\≤t_{\mathrm{\λ}/2}(n-2)\}=1-\mathrm{\λ}---\left(8\right)$

Thus according to formula (8), the fiducial interval of error in the confidence level arranged can be calculated.

In the embodiment of the present invention, confidence level can be arranged according to actual security needs, such as, can be set to 99%, 95%, 90% etc.

Step 103, obtains the higher limit of error in the fiducial interval of described confidence level, and the higher limit based on described fiducial interval calculates the safety coefficient of Blasting Vibration Velocity, described safety coefficient is applied to Sa road Paderewski experimental formula to predict Blasting Vibration Velocity.

In this step, in order to ensure the safety of target structures thing, consider the higher limit of error fiducial interval, the higher limit of the error fiducial interval utilizing formula (8) to obtain is:

$\mathrm{\ϵ}=t_{\mathrm{\λ}/2}(n-2)\widehat{\mathrm{\σ}}\sqrt{1+\frac{1}{n}+\frac{{(x_i-\stackrel{\‾}{x})}^2}{S_{\mathrm{xx}}}}---\left(9\right)$

Formula (9) is substituted into formula (4), and according to formula (2), can obtain:

$V_a=e^{\mathrm{\ϵ}}K{\left(\frac{Q^{\frac{1}{3}}}{R}\right)}^{\mathrm{\α}}---\left(10\right)$

In formula,

V _afor the prediction Blasting Vibration Velocity improved.

In above formula, order:

γ _s＝e ^ε

In formula,

γ _sfor safety coefficient.

The Sa road Paderewski experimental formula be then improved is:

$V_a={\mathrm{\γ}}_{s}K{\left(\frac{Q^{\frac{1}{3}}}{R}\right)}^{\mathrm{\α}}---\left(11\right)$

Lift specific embodiment below, the present invention is described in further detail.

Owing to often only needing to ensure that actual value can not be significantly higher than the generation of predicted value situation in blasting engineering, in the embodiment of the present invention, the safety coefficient of the Sa road Paderewski experimental formula of improvement calculates the higher limit adopting the fiducial interval presetting confidence level.

For confidence level for 99%, suppose that stone pit has sampled data 162 groups to target structures thing A direction, utilizes above-mentioned regression analysis to calculate, obtains the safety coefficient of Blasting Vibration Velocity under comparatively hard rock scene:

γ _s＝e ^ε

Wherein,

$\mathrm{\ϵ}=t_{\mathrm{\λ}/2}(n-2)\widehat{\mathrm{\σ}}\sqrt{1+\frac{1}{n}+\frac{{(x_i-\stackrel{\‾}{x})}^2}{S_{\mathrm{xx}}}}$

In the embodiment of the present invention, because 162 groups of sample data amounts are comparatively large, the calculated amount of ε can be simplified, namely for the situation that sample size n is larger, meet following formula:

$\sqrt{1+\frac{1}{n}+\frac{{(x_i-\stackrel{\‾}{x})}^2}{S_{\mathrm{xx}}}}\≈1$

Thus, convolution (9), can obtain:

$\mathrm{\ϵ}=t_{\mathrm{\λ}/2}(n-2)\widehat{\mathrm{\σ}}---\left(12\right)$

In formula,

λ is the level of signifiance, λ=0.01.

The probability density distribution schematic diagram of Fig. 2 to be embodiment of the present invention confidence level be t function of 99%.See Fig. 2, when confidence level is 99%:

t _0.005(160)＝2.57

According to formula (6), calculate 162 groups of sample datas, the unbiased estimator obtained is:

$\widehat{\mathrm{\σ}}=0.364$

Substitution formula (12), has:

$\mathrm{\ϵ}\≈t_{\mathrm{\λ}/2}(n-2)\widehat{\mathrm{\σ}}=0.935$

Result is substituted into γ _s=e ^ε, have:

γ _s＝e ^ε＝2.54

Get: K=67.3, α=1.3, the improvement Sa road Paderewski experimental formula obtained by calculating correction is:

$V_a=2.54*67.3{\left(\frac{Q^{\frac{1}{3}}}{R}\right)}^{1.3}$

Fig. 3 is that the embodiment of the present invention monitors the sampled data set obtained and the fiducial interval schematic diagram predicted based on 99% confidence level.As shown in Figure 3, as can be seen from Figure 3, the data point concentrated of the sampled data of horizontal Longitudinal Surveillance by 99% fiducial interval comprise completely.Thus, in the embodiment of the present invention, utilize and improve Sa road Paderewski experimental formula, the higher limit of the fiducial interval calculated by confidence level, can be ensured that measured data is significantly higher than predicted data completely, thus can greatly ensure the safety of target structures thing.

From above-mentioned, the method based on confidence level prediction Blasting Vibration Velocity of the embodiment of the present invention, can on the basis of actual measurement sample data, different confidence level (as 95%, 99% etc.) is selected according to security needs, regression analysis and relative error statistical analysis method is utilized to calculate reasonable Blasting Vibration Velocity scope, the safety of important structure building around quick-fried district can be guaranteed to greatest extent, thus minimizing potential safety hazard, promote Blasting Vibration Velocity forecasting reliability.

Fig. 4 is the apparatus structure schematic diagram of the embodiment of the present invention based on confidence level prediction Blasting Vibration Velocity.See Fig. 4, this device comprises: unbiased estimator acquisition module 401, fiducial interval computing module 402, safety coefficient computing module 403 and predictor formula generation module 404, wherein,

Unbiased estimator acquisition module 401, for arranging the velocity contrast of actual Blasting Vibration Velocity and prediction Blasting Vibration Velocity, the logarithm value of computing velocity difference, obtains error, obtains with neat quick-fried dose and the quick-fried heart unbiased estimator apart from the sample data collection represented;

In the embodiment of the present invention, as embodiment, unbiased estimator acquisition module 401 comprises: Sa road Paderewski experimental formula converter unit, error generation unit and unbiased estimator computing unit (not shown), wherein,

Sa road Paderewski experimental formula converter unit, for carrying out log-transformation to Sa road Paderewski experimental formula, obtains the prediction Blasting Vibration Velocity represented with a linear equation;

In the embodiment of the present invention, Sa road Paderewski experimental formula is as follows:

$V=K*{\left(\frac{Q^{\frac{1}{3}}}{R}\right)}^{\mathrm{\α}}$

Sa road Paderewski experimental formula is taken the logarithm, obtains:

$\ln V=\ln K+\mathrm{\α}*\ln \left(\frac{Q^{\frac{1}{3}}}{R}\right)$

Order:

$y=\ln V,b=\ln K,x=\ln \left(\frac{Q^{\frac{1}{3}}}{R}\right)$

Then Sa road Paderewski experimental formula can be deformed into the form of a linear equation:

y＝αx+b

Error generation unit, for arranging actual Blasting Vibration Velocity and the velocity contrast predicting Blasting Vibration Velocity, the logarithm value of computing velocity difference, obtains error;

In the embodiment of the present invention, the logarithm value of actual Blasting Vibration Velocity meets following formula with the logarithm value of prediction Blasting Vibration Velocity:

Y＝y+ε

In formula,

Y is the logarithm value of actual Blasting Vibration Velocity;

Y is the logarithm value of prediction Blasting Vibration Velocity;

ε is error.

Unbiased estimator computing unit, for the normal distribution obeyed according to error, obtain with error equivalence with neat quick-fried dose and the quick-fried heart unbiased estimator apart from the sample data collection represented.

In the embodiment of the present invention, the error ε that error generation unit obtains is relevant with the logarithm value of prediction Blasting Vibration Velocity to the logarithm value of actual Blasting Vibration Velocity, specifically cannot calculate, but this error obeys following normal distribution:

$\mathrm{\ϵ}~N(0,[1+\frac{1}{n}+\frac{{(x_i-\stackrel{\‾}{x})}^2}{S_{\mathrm{xx}}}\left]{\mathrm{\σ}}^2\right)$

In formula,

$x_i=\ln \left(\frac{Q^{\frac{1}{3}}}{R_i}\right),\stackrel{\‾}{x}=\frac{\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{x}_i}{n},S_{\mathrm{xx}}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{(x_i-\stackrel{\‾}{x})}^2.$

Wherein, sample data collection variances sigma ²with unbiased estimator meet following relation:

${\widehat{\mathrm{\σ}}}^2=\frac{Q_e}{n-2}=\frac{1}{n-2}(S_{\mathrm{YY}}-{\mathrm{\λS}}_{\mathrm{xY}})$

In formula,

$S_{\mathrm{YY}}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{(Y_i-\stackrel{\‾}{Y})}^2,S_{\mathrm{xY}}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}(x_i-\stackrel{\‾}{x})(Y_i-\stackrel{\‾}{Y}).$

Fiducial interval computing module 402, for based on the unbiased estimator calculated, calculates the fiducial interval of described error in described confidence level of the satisfied confidence level pre-set;

In the embodiment of the present invention, unbiased estimator and error meet t and distribute:

$\frac{\mathrm{\ϵ}}{\widehat{\mathrm{\σ}}\sqrt{1+\frac{1}{n}+\frac{{(x_i-\stackrel{\‾}{x})}^2}{S_{\mathrm{xx}}}}}~t(n-2)$

Then for the confidence level pre-set (1-λ), have:

$P\{-t_{\mathrm{\λ}/2}(n-2)\≤\frac{\mathrm{\ϵ}}{\widehat{\mathrm{\σ}}\sqrt{1+\frac{1}{n}+\frac{{(x_i-\stackrel{\‾}{x})}^2}{S_{\mathrm{xx}}}}}\≤t_{\mathrm{\λ}/2}(n-2)\}=1-\mathrm{\λ}$

Safety coefficient computing module 403, for obtaining the higher limit of error in the fiducial interval of described confidence level, the higher limit based on described fiducial interval calculates the safety coefficient of Blasting Vibration Velocity;

In the embodiment of the present invention, utilize the higher limit of following formula error of calculation fiducial interval:

$\mathrm{\ϵ}=t_{\mathrm{\λ}/2}(n-2)\widehat{\mathrm{\σ}}\sqrt{1+\frac{1}{n}+\frac{{(x_i-\stackrel{\‾}{x})}^2}{S_{\mathrm{xx}}}}$

The computing formula of safety coefficient is:

γ _s＝e ^ε。

Predictor formula generation module 404, for described safety coefficient is applied to Sa road Paderewski experimental formula, the Sa road Paderewski experimental formula that is improved is to predict Blasting Vibration Velocity.

In the embodiment of the present invention, improving Sa road Paderewski experimental formula is:

$V_a={\mathrm{\γ}}_{s}K{\left(\frac{Q^{\frac{1}{3}}}{R}\right)}^{\mathrm{\α}}.$

One of ordinary skill in the art will appreciate that all or part of flow process realized in above-described embodiment method, that the hardware that can carry out instruction relevant by computer program has come, described program can be stored in a computer read/write memory medium, this program, when performing, can comprise the flow process of the embodiment as above-mentioned each side method.Wherein, described storage medium can be magnetic disc, CD, read-only store-memory body (Read-Only Memory, ROM) or random store-memory body (RandomAccess Memory, RAM) etc.

The above; be only the specific embodiment of the present invention, but protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereto, is anyly familiar with those skilled in the art in the technical scope that the present invention discloses; the change that can expect easily or replacement, all should be encompassed within protection scope of the present invention.Therefore, protection scope of the present invention should be as the criterion with the protection domain of claim.

Claims (10)

1., based on a method for confidence level prediction Blasting Vibration Velocity, it is characterized in that, the method comprises:

Arrange the velocity contrast of actual Blasting Vibration Velocity and prediction Blasting Vibration Velocity, the logarithm value of computing velocity difference, obtains error, obtains with neat quick-fried dose and the quick-fried heart unbiased estimator apart from the sample data collection represented;

Based on the unbiased estimator calculated, calculate the fiducial interval of described error in described confidence level of the satisfied confidence level pre-set;

Obtain the higher limit of error in the fiducial interval of described confidence level, the higher limit based on described fiducial interval calculates the safety coefficient of Blasting Vibration Velocity, described safety coefficient is applied to Sa road Paderewski experimental formula to predict Blasting Vibration Velocity.

2. method according to claim 1, is characterized in that, utilizes following formula to calculate described error:

Y＝y+ε＝αx+b+ε

In formula,

Y is the logarithm value of actual Blasting Vibration Velocity;

Y is the logarithm value of prediction Blasting Vibration Velocity;

ε is error;

X is sample data collection;

Wherein,

$y=1\mathrm{nV},b=1\mathrm{nK},x=1n\left(\frac{Q^{\frac{1}{3}}}{R}\right)$

In formula,

V is prediction Blasting Vibration Velocity;

K is the coefficient relevant to the geologic condition between blow-up point to object of protection;

Q is neat quick-fried dose;

R is quick-fried heart distance;

α is the damped expoential relevant to the geologic condition between blow-up point to object of protection.

3. method according to claim 2, is characterized in that, described error obeys following normal distribution:

$\mathrm{\ϵ}~N(0,[1+\frac{1}{n}+\frac{{(x_i-\stackrel{\‾}{x})}^2}{S_{\mathrm{xx}}}\left]{\mathrm{\σ}}^2\right)$

In formula,

N is the sample data amount of sample data collection x, is natural number;

X _ifor i-th sample data of sample data collection;

for the sample data average of sample data collection;

S _xxfor sample data collection variance and;

σ ²for sample data collection variance.

4. method according to claim 3, is characterized in that,

$x_i=1n\left(\frac{Q^{\frac{1}{3}}}{R_i}\right),\stackrel{\‾}{x}=\frac{\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{x}_i}{n},S_{\mathrm{xx}}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{(x_i-\stackrel{\‾}{x})}^2$

In formula,

R _ifor i-th quick-fried heart distance of sample data collection.

5. method according to claim 4, is characterized in that, utilizes following formula to calculate described unbiased estimator:

${\widehat{\mathrm{\σ}}}^2=\frac{1}{n-2}(S_{\mathrm{YY}}-\mathrm{\λ}{S}_{\mathrm{xY}})$

In formula,

$S_{\mathrm{YY}}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{(Y_i-\stackrel{\‾}{Y})}^2,S_{\mathrm{xY}}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}(x_i-\stackrel{\‾}{x})(Y_i-\stackrel{\‾}{Y});$

for unbiased estimator;

λ is the level of signifiance.

6. method according to claim 5, is characterized in that, described unbiased estimator and described error meet following formula:

$\frac{\mathrm{\ϵ}}{\widehat{\mathrm{\σ}}\sqrt{1+\frac{1}{n}+\frac{{(x_i-\stackrel{\‾}{c})}^2}{S_{\mathrm{xx}}}}}~t(n-2).$

7. method according to claim 6, is characterized in that, utilizes following formula to calculate the fiducial interval of described error in described confidence level:

$P\{-t_{\mathrm{\λ}/2}(n-2)\≤\frac{\mathrm{\ϵ}}{\widehat{\mathrm{\σ}}\sqrt{1+\frac{1}{n}+\frac{{(x_i-\stackrel{\‾}{x})}^2}{S_{\mathrm{xx}}}}}\≤t_{\mathrm{\λ}/2}(n-2)\}=1-\mathrm{\λ}.$

8. method according to claim 7, is characterized in that, described error in the higher limit of the fiducial interval of described confidence level is:

$\mathrm{\ϵ}=t_{\mathrm{\λ}/2}(n-2)\widehat{\mathrm{\σ}}\sqrt{1+\frac{1}{n}+\frac{{(x_i-\stackrel{\‾}{x})}^2}{S_{\mathrm{xx}}}}.$

9. method according to claim 8, is characterized in that, described safety coefficient is applied to Sa road Paderewski experimental formula and is specially:

$V_a=e^{\mathrm{\ϵ}}K{\left(\frac{Q^{\frac{1}{3}}}{R}\right)}^{\mathrm{\α}}$

In formula,

V _afor the prediction Blasting Vibration Velocity improved;

E ^εfor safety coefficient.

10., based on a device for confidence level prediction Blasting Vibration Velocity, it is characterized in that, this device comprises: unbiased estimator acquisition module, fiducial interval computing module, safety coefficient computing module and predictor formula generation module, wherein,

Unbiased estimator acquisition module, for arranging the velocity contrast of actual Blasting Vibration Velocity and prediction Blasting Vibration Velocity, the logarithm value of computing velocity difference, obtains error, obtains with neat quick-fried dose and the quick-fried heart unbiased estimator apart from the sample data collection represented;

Fiducial interval computing module, for based on the unbiased estimator calculated, calculates the fiducial interval of described error in described confidence level of the satisfied confidence level pre-set;

Safety coefficient computing module, for obtaining the higher limit of error in the fiducial interval of described confidence level, the higher limit based on described fiducial interval calculates the safety coefficient of Blasting Vibration Velocity;

Predictor formula generation module, for described safety coefficient is applied to Sa road Paderewski experimental formula, the Sa road Paderewski experimental formula that is improved is to predict Blasting Vibration Velocity.