CN104268633A - Power generation capacity prediction method for large-scale wind power integration and information management system - Google Patents
Power generation capacity prediction method for large-scale wind power integration and information management system Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a power generation capacity prediction method for large-scale wind power integration and a corresponding information management system. The method includes the steps that according to a wind speed history database and a physical module simulation database of a wind power farm, an original data set is obtained, off-line wavelet de-noising is performed, normalization processing is performed according to the months, and therefore multiple training data groups are obtained to train different neural network models; according to real-time wind speed data, the weight systems of the neural network models are calculated; the neural network models are combined according to the weight systems to obtain a mixed neural network prediction model; according to a preset prediction time interval, the input variable and the output variable of the mixed neural network prediction model are determined; according to the mixed neural network prediction model, wind speed prediction and reverse normalization treatment are performed, so that a corresponding wind speed prediction value is obtained, and the output capacity of the wind power farm is predicated. By the utilization of the power generation capacity prediction method and the corresponding information management system, a power grid dispatching and operating department can improve the power generation capacity management of a grid connection power plant, reasonably arrange the operation mode, increase the renewable energy source output and reduce pollutant discharge.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of generating capacity Forecasting Methodology towards large-scale wind power access, also relating to a kind of generating capacity information management system for realizing said method simultaneously, belonging to power system automation technology field.
Background technology
Power industry is the pillar industry of the national economic development.Correlation statistical analysis data show, by the end of the year 2013, national generator installation total amount will reach 12.47 ten thousand kilowatts, increases by 9.3% on a year-on-year basis, and wherein grid connected wind power 7,548 ten thousand kilowatts, increases by 21.5% on a year-on-year basis, has the installed capacity of wind-driven power in 10 provinces more than 3,000,000 kilowatts.2013, national wind power generation capacity 1,401 hundred million kilowatt hour, it hour was 2080 hours that equipment on average utilizes.The raising of grid connected wind power installed capacity and generated energy, brings huge economic benefit and environmental benefit, reduces the discharge of carbon, oxysulfide to a great extent.
In today that China's wind-powered electricity generation installation constantly increases, improve grid connected wind power operation and management level, strengthen the information management of wind-powered electricity generation generating capacity, to raising wind-powered electricity generation utilization factor, increase energy-saving and emission-reduction benefit, have and important effect.For the electrical network that installed capacity of wind-driven power is larger, blower fan single-machine capacity is little, the whole network unit quantity is many, is all that fan operation management and management and running bring certain difficulty.At present, domestic for considering that large-scale wind power concentrates the research of the generating capacity information management system of access to be also in the starting stage.
The information management of wind-power electricity generation ability, actual by means of operation of power networks on the one hand, grasp the whole network generating capacity information comprising wind-powered electricity generation in advance, wind-powered electricity generation of preferentially dissolving under the prerequisite ensureing balance of electric power and ener; On the other hand by means of the computer technology of advanced person, the communication technology, database technology and Internet technology, realize the Fast synchronization of data, the scheduling institution very first time is enable to grasp the whole network generating capacity information, thus for arranging operation plan and power system operating mode to provide strong data supporting.
In the ever-increasing situation of grid connected wind power capacity, need exploitation one badly to become more meticulous statistics to the grid-connected unit situation of the whole network, and overall situation control is carried out to exerting oneself of grid-connected unit, can be rationally establishment grid generation plan, arrange the method for operation, the generating capacity information management system of strong data supporting is provided.
Summary of the invention
For the deficiencies in the prior art, primary technical matters to be solved by this invention is to provide a kind of generating capacity Forecasting Methodology towards large-scale wind power access.
Another technical matters to be solved by this invention is to provide a kind of generating capacity information management system towards large-scale wind power access.
For realizing above-mentioned goal of the invention, the present invention adopts following technical scheme:
Towards a generating capacity Forecasting Methodology for large-scale wind power access, comprise the following steps:
(1) raw data set is obtained according to the wind speed historical data base of wind energy turbine set and physical module simulation data base;
(2) off-line Wavelet Denoising Method is carried out to described raw data set, and be normalized according to month, obtain organizing training data more;
(3) different neural network models is trained according to described multistage training data;
(4) weight system of described neural network model is calculated according to real-time air speed data;
(5) according to the weight system of described neural network model, neural network model is combined, obtain hybrid neural networks forecast model;
(6) input variable and the output variable of hybrid neural networks forecast model is determined according to the predicted time interval of presetting;
(7) carry out forecasting wind speed according to described hybrid neural networks forecast model, and carry out renormalization process, obtain corresponding forecasting wind speed value;
(8) according to the capacity of described forecasting wind speed value prediction wind energy turbine set;
(9) according to described output of wind electric field capacity adjustment electric field, the grid-connected unit adjusted.
A kind of generating capacity information management system towards large-scale wind power access, for realizing above-mentioned generating capacity Forecasting Methodology, comprise data publication and acquisition subsystem, data check module, database subsystem, generating capacity information management subsystem, data syn-chronization subsystem, described data publication is checked module with acquisition subsystem by data and is connected with described database subsystem, described generating capacity information management subsystem is connected with described database subsystem by database management module, described data syn-chronization subsystem is connected with described generating capacity information management subsystem, wherein,
Described generating capacity information management subsystem also comprises generating capacity prediction module, and described generating capacity prediction module is connected with SG-OSS system bidirectional, for predicting the generating capacity of genset.
Wherein more preferably, the generating capacity forecasting process of described generating capacity prediction module comprises the following steps:
(1) raw data set is obtained according to the wind speed historical data base of wind energy turbine set and physical module simulation data base;
(2) off-line Wavelet Denoising Method is carried out to described raw data set, and be normalized according to month, obtain organizing training data more;
(3) different neural network models is trained according to described multistage training data;
(4) weight system of described neural network model is calculated according to real-time air speed data;
(5) according to the weight system of described neural network model, neural network model is combined, obtain hybrid neural networks forecast model;
(6) input variable and the output variable of hybrid neural networks forecast model is determined according to the predicted time interval of presetting;
(7) carry out forecasting wind speed according to described hybrid neural networks forecast model, and carry out renormalization process, obtain corresponding forecasting wind speed value;
(8) according to the capacity of described forecasting wind speed value prediction wind energy turbine set;
Wherein more preferably, power plant and ground adjust the data reported to carry out parameter matching, and carry out data check, and wherein, described data are checked as rejecting according to pre-defined rule or mark bad data.
Wherein more preferably, described parameter matching is for carry out biaxial stress structure by data ID and Chinese.
Wherein more preferably, power system operating mode, establishment operation plan is formulated according to the data of checking.
Wherein more preferably, described data management system accesses described database subsystem, extracts that data carrying out are resolved, unloading operation, from extracting data Back ground Information.
Wherein more preferably, Booting sequence administration module is triggered according to described Back ground Information.
Wherein more preferably, after stream compression and management complete, trigger Booting sequence administration module, transmit data by isolation/reverse isolation device to commercial data base.
Compare relative to prior art, the present invention has the following advantages:
(1) the present invention considers that large-scale wind power concentrates the generating capacity information management system of access can the grid-connected management of all genset in reinforcing mat, there is provided data supporting and decision support to power supply and demand balance and security of system stable operation, also can provide Informational support for electric power enterprise inside all departments simultaneously.By the passage of Development and Production operations staff and system interaction, can allow scheduling institution accurately grasp the parameter information of the unit that generates electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems, operation information, next day generating capacity information etc.Simultaneity factor can be checked reported data, points out misdata and missing data, has ensured the accuracy of reported data and comprehensive.Commercial storehouse simultaneous techniques enables stable transfer between the disparate databases of data in different safety zone, ensure that the validity that data are transmitted and promptness, friendly system interface extreme enrichment systemic-function, simultaneously for the use of operational management personnel provide greatly convenient, be convenient to the generating capacity information that operational management personnel grasp the unit that generates electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems in time, for the reasonable arrangement method of operation, carry out operation plan, aid decision making support is provided.
(2) by the present invention, electricity power enterprise considers that large-scale wind power concentrates the generating capacity information management system of access, actual relevant generating capacity data can be run by electrical production, made a report on by network, can system, accurately, science, provide data supporting to arrangement operation plan and power system operating mode in time, make power system operating mode arrangement more rationally, science, reach global optimization, thus decreasing pollution thing discharge also economize energy.
(3) the present invention analyzes generating capacity management information system and has multiple operation interface, is convenient to production run personnel and system interaction, provides the making a report on online of data, checks online, comprehensive analysis, data syn-chronization etc.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the schematic diagram that generating capacity information management system provided by the present invention is disposed in electrical network;
Fig. 2 is the structured flowchart of generating capacity information management system provided by the present invention;
Fig. 3 is in the present invention, the hybrid neural networks forecasting process schematic diagram of generating capacity prediction module;
Fig. 4 is the workflow diagram of generating capacity information management system provided by the present invention.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with the drawings and specific embodiments, the present invention is described in further detail.
The present invention provide firstly a kind of generating capacity information management system towards large-scale wind power access, which solve when large-scale wind power concentrates access, grid-connected unit value volume and range of product is various, be difficult to realize to generate electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems the outstanding problem of fine-grained management of unit, from various dimensions, statistical study is carried out to the information of the unit that generates electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems, simultaneously based on the actual power ability bound of unit, the generation schedule of the different unit of reasonable arrangement.
Fig. 1 is the schematic diagram that generating capacity information management system provided by the present invention is disposed in electrical network.In the electrical network shown in Fig. 1, comprise the application server that point two-stage is disposed, generating capacity information management system is mainly arranged in the application server.Call family and be connected with gateway by information network with power plant user, this floor gateway is connected to by fire wall three district's server gateway that province adjusts place, thus achieves interconnection between server that two-stage disposes and exchanges data by gateway and fire wall.The server that next stage is disposed comprises a SG-OSS server and the first application server, and the server that upper level is disposed comprises the 2nd SG-OSS server, database server and the second application server.Wherein, SG-OSS is the abbreviation of national grid supporting system technology (State Grid-Operation Support System), and this system is the power dispatch system operation and management technology support system based on D5000 platform.Province is called family and is conducted interviews to the server that upper level is disposed by three district's switches.Meanwhile, every one deck gateway all possesses two-way spacer assembly, guarantees the safety and reliability that data are transmitted.The hardware configuration of " two-stage deployment " has also ensured the reliability that data are transmitted further, ensure that hardware foundation in data synchronization process and link are stablized.Meanwhile, the server that two-stage is disposed improves the reliability of system, reduces system failure time and operation expense.
It is the structured flowchart of the generating capacity information management system towards large-scale wind power access shown in Fig. 2.This generating capacity information management system is connected closely with SG-OSS system, data base management system (DBMS), comprising: data publication and acquisition subsystem, database subsystem, wind-power electricity generation ability information ADMINISTRATION SUBSYSTEM and data syn-chronization subsystem.Wherein, database subsystem comprises: real time data library module, Relation DB module, history database module and device parameter database module.Data publication and acquisition subsystem comprise: plant information report with maintenance module, adjusting information report and maintenance module and web information issuing module, data publication is checked module with acquisition module through data and is connected with database.Wind-power electricity generation ability information ADMINISTRATION SUBSYSTEM comprises: user management module, authority management module, system setup module, workflow management module, Basic Information Management module, data base management system (DBMS), data information management module.Database management module is connected with the device parameter database module in database subsystem, is connected again with the data information management module in wind-power electricity generation ability information ADMINISTRATION SUBSYSTEM simultaneously.While Basic Information Management module and data base management system (DBMS) realize data interaction, be also connected with workflow management module.Workflow management module is also connected with SG-OSS system, is also connected with the isolation in data simultaneous module/reverse isolation data transmission module simultaneously.
Generating capacity information management system provided by the present invention is in operational process, first power plant or the basic data reported or service data are reported and maintenance module by power plant or ground adjusting information, enter web information issuing module, after the data check that data check module, enter real time data library module and the device parameter database module of provincial scheduling institution again, afterwards, then according to information such as the annexations of equipment room in Relation DB module reporting information is adjusted to be saved in history database module power plant or ground.Data in database subsystem carry out data interaction through database management module and wind-power electricity generation ability information ADMINISTRATION SUBSYSTEM, and enter data information management module by database management module, made an explanation by data information management module, unloading, the operation such as Data Format Transform and name map, and the Back ground Information extracted wherein, again data are sent into data base management system (DBMS) afterwards, by Basic Information Management module, increasing newly data is realized to the access of data base management system (DBMS), delete, amendment, the operations such as preservation, these operations simultaneously are also synchronized in database by data information management module and database management module.For the Back ground Information extracted, by the mode Booting sequence administration module of trigger flow, can control workflow management with interface form in SG-OSS system, in the module of workflow management simultaneously, also comprise service management unit, rights management unit, Operation system setting unit.Generating capacity prediction module, is connected with SG-OSS system, the data from SG-OSS system is processed, and predicted data is supplied to SG-OSS systems with data and supports.These operations also enter Basic Information Management module by workflow management module.In addition, workflow management module can also according to the configuration information of service management unit, rights management unit and Operation system setting unit, again pass through Booting sequence, utilize workflow management module data to be imported into isolation/reverse isolation data transmission module, and by commercial storehouse synchronization module by data syn-chronization to higher level's scheduling institution.
Be the hybrid neural networks forecasting process of generating capacity prediction module shown in Fig. 3, comprise the following steps:
(1) raw data set is obtained according to the wind speed historical data base of wind energy turbine set and physical module simulation data base;
(2) off-line Wavelet Denoising Method is carried out to raw data set, and be normalized according to month, obtain organizing training data more;
(3) different neural network models is trained according to multistage training data;
(4) weight system of neural network model is calculated according to real-time air speed data;
(5) according to the weight system of neural network model, neural network model is combined, obtain hybrid neural networks forecast model;
(6) input variable and the output variable of hybrid neural networks forecast model is determined according to the predicted time interval of presetting;
(7) carry out forecasting wind speed according to hybrid neural networks forecast model, and carry out renormalization process, obtain corresponding forecasting wind speed value;
(8) according to forecasting wind speed value, the capacity of prediction wind energy turbine set;
(9) according to output of wind electric field capacity adjustment electric field, the grid-connected unit adjusted.
When large-scale wind power concentrates access, in electric system, the quantity of genset acutely increases, and between separate unit blower fan, difference is large, the Commitment, Accounting and Management of Unit Supply that becomes more meticulous of the unit that is difficult to realize to generate electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems.This generating capacity information management system adopts hybrid neural networks prediction algorithm, real-time follow-up wind power output, stop standby etc. state in conjunction with Wind turbines maintenance, fault, cooperation simultaneously, while, minimum technology maximum at the current wind-powered electricity generation of calculating is exerted oneself, consider meteorologic factor, upgrade wind-power electricity generation ability in following a period of time, can effectively integrate power plant, adjust the grid-connected unit essential information reported, and on this basis statistical study is carried out to the Back ground Information of the unit that generates electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems and operation information.
The workflow of this generating capacity information management system shown in Fig. 4, power plant and ground adjust can be reported by network or receive data, web information issuing module provide and power plant and ground adjust between bidirectional data interaction.On the one hand, power plant and ground adjust the data reported after parameter matching, check, then carry out preservation by database management module and operate, facilitate Regulation personnel to manage data reception data; On the other hand, SG-OSS system gathers Back ground Information and data message, and sends to power plant and ground to adjust specific data by means of the Basic Information Management module of database management module.In above process, power plant and ground are adjusted and are inquired about and reported data by the form of accessed web page, data ID and Chinese are mainly carried out biaxial stress structure by the process of parameter matching, it is reject according to pre-defined rule or mark bad data that data are checked, remind Regulation personnel to note, data management module and Basic Information Management module then realize the function to the underlying parameter information of grid-connected unit and the service data management of each time dimension respectively.This generating capacity information management system is by means of SG-OSS system, on the basis of data management, the management of Back ground Information and data can be started by call flow administration module, and data are by the transmission of isolation/reverse isolation device, synchronous eventually through commercial storehouse, arrive higher level's scheduling institution.Meanwhile, Regulation personnel can by interface and flow startup user management, rights management and system management.
Generating capacity information management system provided by the present invention has the operational administrative function of multiple database and high integration, not only can realize stream compression in system, data can also be provided for other departments in higher level's scheduling institution and grid company, powerful data supporting and aid decision making can be provided for reasonable arrangement power system operating mode, establishment operation plan through the data of checking.On the one hand, generating capacity declares the generating capacity that Regulation personnel can be made to grasp grid-connected unit in following a period of time in advance, on the other hand, by strengthening the management maintenance of Back ground Information and data, also can make the management intensity of Regulation personnel reinforcement to grid-connected power plant, thus provide Reliable guarantee for the whole network balance of electric power and ener and power network safety operation.The present invention can realize concentrating the overall situation of the grid-connected blower fan of access electrical network to control to large-scale wind power, contributes to management and running personnel and carries out fine-grained management to the unit that generates electricity by way of merging two or more grid systems, thus rational generation schedule, arrangement power system operating mode.Generating capacity information management system provided by the present invention, can also manage to the generating capacity information containing generation of electricity by new energy ability information and traditional thermoelectricity, water power etc. such as wind-powered electricity generation, photovoltaic, energy storage, ensure that Regulation personnel obtain the comprehensive of data and accuracy.
Practical operation situation shows, this generating capacity information management system can better be tried out with electrical network production run actual, system run all right, dispatching of power netwoks can be made to run department and to strengthen grid-connected power plants generating electricity Capacity Management, the reasonable arrangement method of operation and operation plan, thus reasonable arrangement wind power output, increase regenerative resource and exert oneself; In the process of Regulation, improve Regulation level.
Above the generating capacity Forecasting Methodology towards large-scale wind power access provided by the present invention and information management system are described in detail.To those skilled in the art, to any apparent change that it does under the prerequisite not deviating from connotation of the present invention, all by formation to infringement of patent right of the present invention, corresponding legal liabilities will be born.
Claims (9)
1., towards a generating capacity Forecasting Methodology for large-scale wind power access, it is characterized in that comprising the following steps:
(1) raw data set is obtained according to the wind speed historical data base of wind energy turbine set and physical module simulation data base;
(2) off-line Wavelet Denoising Method is carried out to described raw data set, and be normalized according to month, obtain organizing training data more;
(3) different neural network models is trained according to described multistage training data;
(4) weight system of described neural network model is calculated according to real-time air speed data;
(5) according to the weight system of described neural network model, neural network model is combined, obtain hybrid neural networks forecast model;
(6) input variable and the output variable of hybrid neural networks forecast model is determined according to the predicted time interval of presetting;
(7) carry out forecasting wind speed according to described hybrid neural networks forecast model, and carry out renormalization process, obtain corresponding forecasting wind speed value;
(8) according to the capacity of described forecasting wind speed value prediction wind energy turbine set;
(9) according to described output of wind electric field capacity adjustment electric field, the grid-connected unit adjusted.
2. the generating capacity information management system towards large-scale wind power access, for realizing generating capacity Forecasting Methodology according to claim 1, comprise data publication and acquisition subsystem, data check module, database subsystem, generating capacity information management subsystem, data syn-chronization subsystem, described data publication is checked module with acquisition subsystem by data and is connected with described database subsystem, described generating capacity information management subsystem is connected with described database subsystem by database management module, described data syn-chronization subsystem is connected with described generating capacity information management subsystem, it is characterized in that,
Described generating capacity information management subsystem also comprises generating capacity prediction module, and described generating capacity prediction module is connected with SG-OSS system bidirectional, for predicting the generating capacity of genset.
3. generating capacity information management system as claimed in claim 2, is characterized in that,
The generating capacity forecasting process of described generating capacity prediction module comprises the following steps:
(1) raw data set is obtained according to the wind speed historical data base of wind energy turbine set and physical module simulation data base;
(2) off-line Wavelet Denoising Method is carried out to described raw data set, and be normalized according to month, obtain organizing training data more;
(3) different neural network models is trained according to described multistage training data;
(4) weight system of described neural network model is calculated according to real-time air speed data;
(5) according to the weight system of described neural network model, neural network model is combined, obtain hybrid neural networks forecast model;
(6) input variable and the output variable of hybrid neural networks forecast model is determined according to the predicted time interval of presetting;
(7) carry out forecasting wind speed according to described hybrid neural networks forecast model, and carry out renormalization process, obtain corresponding forecasting wind speed value;
(8) according to the capacity of described forecasting wind speed value prediction wind energy turbine set.
4. generating capacity information management system as claimed in claim 2, is characterized in that,
Power plant and ground adjust the data reported to carry out parameter matching, and carry out data check, and wherein, described data are checked as rejecting according to pre-defined rule or mark bad data.
5. generating capacity information management system as claimed in claim 3, is characterized in that,
Described parameter matching is for carry out biaxial stress structure by data ID and Chinese.
6. generating capacity information management system as claimed in claim 5, is characterized in that,
Power system operating mode, establishment operation plan is formulated according to the data of checking.
7. generating capacity information management system as claimed in claim 2, is characterized in that,
Described database management module accesses described database subsystem, extracts that data carrying out are resolved, unloading operation, from extracting data Back ground Information.
8. generating capacity information management system as claimed in claim 7, is characterized in that,
Booting sequence administration module is triggered according to described Back ground Information.
9. generating capacity information management system as claimed in claim 8, is characterized in that,
After stream compression and management complete, trigger and start described workflow management module, the data selected to commercial data base transmission by isolation/reverse isolation device.
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| CN106526710A (en) * | 2016-10-19 | 2017-03-22 | 陈文飞 | Haze prediction method and device |
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| CN102479339A (en) * | 2010-11-24 | 2012-05-30 | 香港理工大学 | Method and system for forecasting short-term wind speed of wind farm based on hybrid neural network |
| CN102915026A (en) * | 2012-11-14 | 2013-02-06 | 成都阜特科技股份有限公司 | Centralized control system of wind power plant |
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| CN102479339A (en) * | 2010-11-24 | 2012-05-30 | 香港理工大学 | Method and system for forecasting short-term wind speed of wind farm based on hybrid neural network |
| CN102915026A (en) * | 2012-11-14 | 2013-02-06 | 成都阜特科技股份有限公司 | Centralized control system of wind power plant |
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