CN104253437B - A kind of loaded capacity-regulated method of distribution transformer based on short-term load forecasting - Google Patents
A kind of loaded capacity-regulated method of distribution transformer based on short-term load forecasting Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention provides a kind of loaded capacity-regulated method of distribution transformer based on short-term load forecasting, and distribution transformer is self adaptation load type distribution transformer or loading capacitance-regulating distribution transformer, and the method comprises the following steps: monitors load condition in real time and records preservation；Carry out short-term load forecasting, and then generate state level；Determine the loaded capacity-regulated strategy of distribution transformer and carry out associative operation.The present invention provides a kind of loaded capacity-regulated method of distribution transformer based on short-term load forecasting, on the basis of self adaptation short-term load forecasting, power distribution station short-term load forecasting is considered during distribution transformer is loaded capacity-regulated, optimize the loaded capacity-regulated control of distribution transformer, reduce the frequent capacity transfer that power distribution station load fluctuation causes, improve capacitance switch cost performance and service life, decrease the impact to power distribution network.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to technical field of power systems, be specifically related to a kind of distribution transformer based on short-term load forecasting loaded capacity-regulated
Method.
Background technology
Distribution transformer (self adaptation load type distribution transformer or loading capacitance-regulating distribution transformer) possesses loaded capacity-regulated function, energy
Enough it is operated under big rated capacity and two kinds of methods of operation of small rated capacity, compares that to be suitable for average annual rate of load condensate less than 25% and negative
Lotus has seasonality or the area applications of cyclically-varying feature, and its energy-saving effect is notable；These regions are mainly rural area or city
Shopping centre.At present, in the loaded capacity-regulated control method of distribution transformer, do not account for load prediction results, according only to monitoring in real time
Load carries out capacity transfer, owing to the fluctuation of power distribution station load, particularly rural power distribution platform district is relatively big, causes loaded capacity-regulated switch frequent
Action.Loaded capacity-regulated switch frequent movement increases the impact to power distribution network, reduces the service life of loaded capacity-regulated switch simultaneously,
It is unfavorable for distribution transformer safety, economical operation.
The patent of invention of Application No. 201310100118.7 discloses a kind of self adaptation load type distribution transformer, such as Fig. 1, it
Mainly include distribution transformer body, loaded capacity regulating voltage regulating integral switch, Comprehensive Control terminal and corollary equipment four major part group
Become.
The current loaded capacity-regulated control method of existing distribution transformer does not accounts for load prediction results, negative according only to monitoring in real time
Lotus carries out capacity transfer, owing to power distribution station fluctuation is relatively big, causes loaded capacity-regulated switch frequent movement, increases the impact to power distribution network,
Reduce the service life of loaded capacity-regulated switch, be unfavorable for distribution transformer safety, economical operation.
Summary of the invention
In order to overcome above-mentioned the deficiencies in the prior art, the present invention provides a kind of distribution transformer based on short-term load forecasting to have load to adjust
Appearance method, on the basis of self adaptation short-term load forecasting, considers power distribution station short-term during distribution transformer is loaded capacity-regulated
Load prediction, optimizes the loaded capacity-regulated control of distribution transformer, reduces the frequent capacity transfer that power distribution station load fluctuation causes, and improves and adjusts
Hold switch cost performance and service life, decrease the impact to power distribution network.
In order to realize foregoing invention purpose, the present invention adopts the following technical scheme that:
The present invention provides a kind of loaded capacity-regulated method of distribution transformer based on short-term load forecasting, and described distribution transformer is adaptive
Answer load type distribution transformer or loading capacitance-regulating distribution transformer, said method comprising the steps of:
Step 1: monitor load condition in real time and record preservation；
Step 2: carry out short-term load forecasting, and then generate state level；
Step 3: determine the loaded capacity-regulated strategy of distribution transformer and carry out associative operation.
In described step 1, in distribution transformer, Comprehensive Control terminal carries out self-inspection, and monitors current t in real time0The electricity of moment load
Pressure, electric current and power factor, generate Real-time Load and record preservation.
Described step 1 specifically includes following steps:
Step 1-1: Comprehensive Control terminal powers on and carries out self-inspection, if self-inspection makes mistakes, then Comprehensive Control terminal locking record fault；
If self-inspection is normal, then proceed to step 1-2；
Step 1-2: read the capacity transfer mode status signal of Comprehensive Control terminal, it is judged that need to carry out automatic capacity transfer or manual capacity transfer；
If needing manual capacity transfer, then perform manual capacity transfer；If needing automatic capacity transfer, then proceed to step 1-3；
Step 1-3: read the three-phase voltage phase sequence status signal of Comprehensive Control terminal, it is judged that the three-phase voltage phase sequence of distribution transformer
The most normal；If three-phase voltage phase sequence is abnormal, then Comprehensive Control terminal locking record fault；If three-phase voltage phase sequence is just
Often, then step 1-4 is proceeded to；
Step 1-4: capacity transfer definite value S of distribution transformer is setcrWith Comprehensive Control terminal data acquisition time spacing value tset, tset
It it is 15 minutes；
Step 1-5: Comprehensive Control terminal gathers the current t of distribution transformer0Voltage u (the t in moment0), electric current i (t0) and power factor f (t0),
Generate Real-time Load S (t0)；
Step 1-6: record current t0Real-time Load S (the t in moment0) and be saved in history data repository.
Described step 2 comprises the following steps:
Step 2-1: carry out short-term load forecasting according to load prediction key element, obtain t0+ 1 moment is to t0N the moment in the+n moment
The predicted load S of pointp{Sp(t0+ 1), Sp(t0+ 2) ..., Sp(t0+ i) ..., Sp(t0+ n-1), Sp(t0+n)}；
Step 2-2: according to predicted load and real-time load data, generates state level；
Described state level includes Real-time Load state level L1, Real-time Load low capacity overload level L2, prediction load shape
State level L3, prediction load low capacity overload level L4, loaded capacity-regulated switch real time state level L5。
In described step 2-1, load prediction key element includes historical load data, real-time load data, temperature information and date class
Type information.
In described step 2-2, it is as follows that each state level generates process:
(1) Real-time Load state level L is generated1:
If current t0Real-time Load S (the t in moment0) more than capacity transfer definite value Scr, then current t0The Real-time Load state level in moment
L1(t0) it is high level；
If current t0Real-time Load S (the t in moment0) less than capacity transfer definite value Scr, then current t0The Real-time Load state level in moment
L1(t0) it is low level；
(2) Real-time Load low capacity overload level L is generated2:
If current t0Real-time Load S (the t in moment0) more than rated capacity S under distribution transformer low capacity working methodN is little1.2
Times, then current t0The Real-time Load low capacity overload level L in moment2(t0) it is high level；
If current t0Real-time Load S (the t in moment0) less than rated capacity S under distribution transformer low capacity working methodN is little1.2
Times, then current t0The Real-time Load low capacity overload level L in moment2(t0) it is low level；
(3) prediction load condition level L is generated3:
If t0The predicted load S in+i momentp(t0+ i) more than capacity transfer definite value Scr, then t0The prediction load condition level in+i moment
L3(t0+ i) it is high level；
If t0The predicted load S in+i momentp(t0+ i) less than capacity transfer definite value Scr, then t0The prediction load condition level in+i moment
L3(t0+ i) it is low level；
(4) prediction load low capacity overload level L is generated4:
If t0The predicted load S in+i momentp(t0+ i) more than rated capacity S under distribution transformer low capacity working methodN is little's
1.2 times, then t0The prediction load low capacity overload level L in+i moment4(t0+ i) it is high level；
If t0The predicted load S in+i momentp(t0+ i) less than rated capacity S under distribution transformer low capacity working methodN is little's
1.2 times, then t0The prediction load low capacity overload level L in+i moment4(t0+ i) it is low level；
(5) loaded capacity-regulated switch real time state level L is generated5:
If current t0Moment loaded capacity-regulated switch is in Large Copacity gear, then current t0The loaded capacity-regulated switch real time state in moment
Level L5(t0) it is high level；
If current t0Moment loaded capacity-regulated switch is in low capacity gear, then current t0The loaded capacity-regulated switch real time state in moment
Level L5(t0) it is low level.
In described step 3, according to each state level of current time and following instant and situation of change thereof, determine that distribution transformer has
Carry capacity transfer strategy and carry out associative operation.
Described step 3 specifically includes following steps:
Step 3-1: detect current t0Moment loaded capacity-regulated switch real time state level L5(t0) whether with Real-time Load state level L1(t0)
Equal, if equal, make t0=t0+ 1, return the circulation of step 1-5 and perform；Otherwise go to step 3-2；
Step 3-2: detect current t0Moment loaded capacity-regulated switch real time state level L5(t0) whether it is low level, if low electricity
Flat then go to step 3-5；Otherwise go to step 3-3；
Step 3-3: detection t0+ 1 moment, t0+ 2 moment, t0+ 3 moment and t0The prediction load condition level L in+4 moment3(t0+1)、
L3(t0+2)、L3(t0+3)、L3(t0+ 4) and prediction load low capacity overload level L4(t0+1)、L4(t0+2)、
L4(t0+3)、L4(t0+ 4) whether the bar that distribution transformer is switched to low capacity working method is met from Large Copacity working method
Part, if meeting, switching loaded capacity-regulated switch, from Large Copacity working method, distribution transformer is switched to low capacity working method,
And record capacity transfer action so that t0=t0+ 1, return the circulation of step 1-5 and perform；The most directly make t0=t0+ 1, return step 1-5
Circulation performs；
Step 3-4: detect current t0Moment Real-time Load low capacity overload level L2(t0) whether it is high level, if high
Level, then switch loaded capacity-regulated switch, from low capacity working method, distribution transformer is switched to Large Copacity working method, and remembers
Record capacity transfer action so that t0=t0+ 1, return the circulation of step 1-5 and perform；Otherwise go to step 3-5；
Step 3-5: detection t0+ 1 moment, t0+ 2 moment, t0+ 3 moment and t0The prediction load condition level L in+4 moment3(t0+1)、
L3(t0+2)、L3(t0+3)、L3(t0+ 4) and prediction load low capacity overload level L4(t0+1)、L4(t0+2)、
L4(t0+3)、L4(t0+ 4) whether the condition that distribution transformer is maintained at low capacity working method is met, if it is satisfied, then
Make t0=t0+ 1, return the circulation of step 1-5 and perform；Otherwise switch loaded capacity-regulated switch, distribution transformer is worked from low capacity
Mode is switched to Large Copacity working method, and records capacity transfer action so that t0=t0+ 1, return the circulation of step 1-5 and perform.
In described step 3-3, meeting one of following condition can be switched to low capacity by distribution transformer from Large Copacity working method
Working method:
3-3-1)t0+ 1 moment, t0+ 2 moment, t0+ 3 moment and t0The predicted load in+4 moment is both less than capacity transfer definite value Scr, i.e.
Prediction load condition level is all low level；
3-3-2)t0+ 1 moment, t0+ 2 moment, t0+ 3 moment and t0In+4 moment in moment four, the load in any three moment is pre-
Measured value is both less than capacity transfer definite value Scr, the predicted load in remaining moment is less than the volume under distribution transformer low capacity working method
Constant volume SN is little1.2 times；In i.e. four moment, the prediction load condition level in three moment is all low level, a moment
Prediction load low capacity overload level is low level；
3-3-3)t0+ 1 moment, t0+ 2 moment, t0+ 3 moment and t0In+4 moment in moment four, the load in any two moment is pre-
Measured value is both less than capacity transfer definite value Scr, the predicted load in remaining two moment is less than the volume under distribution transformer low capacity working method
Constant volume SN is little1.2 times；In i.e. four moment, the prediction load condition level in two moment is all low level, two moment
Prediction load low capacity overload level is all low level.
In described step 3-5, meet one of following condition and distribution transformer can remain low capacity working method:
3-5-1)t0+ 1 moment, t0+ 2 moment, t0+ 3 moment and t0The predicted load in+4 moment is both less than capacity transfer definite value Scr, i.e.
Prediction load condition level is all low level；
3-5-2)t0+ 1 moment, t0+ 2 moment, t0+ 3 moment and t0In+4 moment in moment four, the load in any three moment is pre-
Measured value is both less than capacity transfer definite value Scr, the predicted load in remaining moment is less than rated capacity S under low capacity working methodN is little
1.2 times；In i.e. four moment, the prediction load condition level in three moment is all low level, and the prediction load in a moment is little
Capacity overload state level is low level.
Compared with prior art, the beneficial effects of the present invention is:
Compared with existing similar techniques, the present invention considers power distribution station short-term load forecasting during distribution transformer is loaded capacity-regulated,
Optimize the loaded capacity-regulated control of distribution transformer, it is to avoid the frequent capacity transfer situation that power distribution station load fluctuation causes occurs, and then
Decrease the loaded capacity-regulated switch motion impact to power distribution network, improve and become in the service life of loaded capacity-regulated switch, beneficially distribution
Depressor is in safety, economical operation state.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is self adaptation load type distribution transformer structure chart in prior art；
Fig. 2 is the loaded capacity-regulated method flow diagram of distribution transformer based on short-term load forecasting in the embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 3 is that in the embodiment of the present invention, self adaptation load distribution transformer is switched to low capacity working method from Large Copacity working method
Condition curve synoptic diagram；
Fig. 4 is that in the embodiment of the present invention, self adaptation load distribution transformer keeps low capacity working method condition curve synoptic diagram.
Detailed description of the invention
Below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings the present invention is described in further detail.
Such as Fig. 2, the present invention provides a kind of loaded capacity-regulated method of distribution transformer based on short-term load forecasting, described distribution transformer
Device is self adaptation load type distribution transformer or loading capacitance-regulating distribution transformer, said method comprising the steps of:
Step 1: monitor load condition in real time and record preservation；
Step 2: carry out short-term load forecasting, and then generate state level；
Step 3: determine the loaded capacity-regulated strategy of distribution transformer and carry out associative operation.
In described step 1, in distribution transformer, Comprehensive Control terminal carries out self-inspection, and monitors current t in real time0The electricity of moment load
Pressure, electric current and power factor, generate Real-time Load and record preservation.
Described step 1 specifically includes following steps:
Step 1-1: Comprehensive Control terminal powers on and carries out self-inspection, if self-inspection makes mistakes, then Comprehensive Control terminal locking record fault；
If self-inspection is normal, then proceed to step 1-2；
Step 1-2: read the capacity transfer mode status signal of Comprehensive Control terminal, it is judged that need to carry out automatic capacity transfer or manual capacity transfer；
If needing manual capacity transfer, then perform manual capacity transfer；If needing automatic capacity transfer, then proceed to step 1-3；
Step 1-3: read the three-phase voltage phase sequence status signal of Comprehensive Control terminal, it is judged that the three-phase voltage phase sequence of distribution transformer
The most normal；If three-phase voltage phase sequence is abnormal, then Comprehensive Control terminal locking record fault；If three-phase voltage phase sequence is just
Often, then step 1-4 is proceeded to；
Step 1-4: capacity transfer definite value S of distribution transformer is setcrWith Comprehensive Control terminal data acquisition time spacing value tset, tset
It it is 15 minutes；
Step 1-5: Comprehensive Control terminal gathers the current t of distribution transformer0Voltage u (the t in moment0), electric current i (t0) and power factor f (t0),
Generate Real-time Load S (t0)；
Step 1-6: record current t0Real-time Load S (the t in moment0) and be saved in history data repository.
Described step 2 comprises the following steps:
Step 2-1: carry out short-term load forecasting according to load prediction key element, obtain t0+ 1 moment is to t0N the moment in the+n moment
The predicted load S of pointp{Sp(t0+ 1), Sp(t0+ 2) ..., Sp(t0+ i) ..., Sp(t0+ n-1), Sp(t0+n)}；
Step 2-2: according to predicted load and real-time load data, generates state level；
Described state level includes Real-time Load state level L1, Real-time Load low capacity overload level L2, prediction load shape
State level L3, prediction load low capacity overload level L4, loaded capacity-regulated switch real time state level L5。
In described step 2-1, load prediction key element includes historical load data, real-time load data, temperature information and date class
Type information.
In described step 2-2, it is as follows that each state level generates process:
(1) Real-time Load state level L is generated1:
If current t0Real-time Load S (the t in moment0) more than capacity transfer definite value Scr, then current t0The Real-time Load state level in moment
L1(t0) it is high level；
If current t0Real-time Load S (the t in moment0) less than capacity transfer definite value Scr, then current t0The Real-time Load state level in moment
L1(t0) it is low level；
(2) Real-time Load low capacity overload level L is generated2:
If current t0Real-time Load S (the t in moment0) more than rated capacity S under distribution transformer low capacity working methodN is little1.2
Times, then current t0The Real-time Load low capacity overload level L in moment2(t0) it is high level；
If current t0Real-time Load S (the t in moment0) less than rated capacity S under distribution transformer low capacity working methodN is little1.2
Times, then current t0The Real-time Load low capacity overload level L in moment2(t0) it is low level；
(3) prediction load condition level L is generated3:
If t0The predicted load S in+i momentp(t0+ i) more than capacity transfer definite value Scr, then t0The prediction load condition level in+i moment
L3(t0+ i) it is high level；
If t0The predicted load S in+i momentp(t0+ i) less than capacity transfer definite value Scr, then t0The prediction load condition level in+i moment
L3(t0+ i) it is low level；
(4) prediction load low capacity overload level L is generated4:
If t0The predicted load S in+i momentp(t0+ i) more than rated capacity S under distribution transformer low capacity working methodN is little's
1.2 times, then t0The prediction load low capacity overload level L in+i moment4(t0+ i) it is high level；
If t0The predicted load S in+i momentp(t0+ i) less than rated capacity S under distribution transformer low capacity working methodN is little's
1.2 times, then t0The prediction load low capacity overload level L in+i moment4(t0+ i) it is low level；
(5) loaded capacity-regulated switch real time state level L is generated5:
If current t0Moment loaded capacity-regulated switch is in Large Copacity gear, then current t0The loaded capacity-regulated switch real time state in moment
Level L5(t0) it is high level；
If current t0Moment loaded capacity-regulated switch is in low capacity gear, then current t0The loaded capacity-regulated switch real time state in moment
Level L5(t0) it is low level.
In described step 3, according to each state level of current time and following instant and situation of change thereof, determine that distribution transformer has
Carry capacity transfer strategy and carry out associative operation.
Described step 3 specifically includes following steps:
Step 3-1: detect current t0Moment loaded capacity-regulated switch real time state level L5(t0) whether with Real-time Load state level L1(t0)
Equal, if equal, make t0=t0+ 1, return the circulation of step 1-5 and perform；Otherwise go to step 3-2；
Step 3-2: detect current t0Moment loaded capacity-regulated switch real time state level L5(t0) whether it is low level, if low electricity
Flat then go to step 3-5；Otherwise go to step 3-3；
Step 3-3: detection t0+ 1 moment, t0+ 2 moment, t0+ 3 moment and t0The prediction load condition level L in+4 moment3(t0+1)、
L3(t0+2)、L3(t0+3)、L3(t0+ 4) and prediction load low capacity overload level L4(t0+1)、L4(t0+2)、
L4(t0+3)、L4(t0+ 4) whether the bar that distribution transformer is switched to low capacity working method is met from Large Copacity working method
Part, if meeting, switching loaded capacity-regulated switch, from Large Copacity working method, distribution transformer is switched to low capacity working method,
And record capacity transfer action so that t0=t0+ 1, return the circulation of step 1-5 and perform；The most directly make t0=t0+ 1, return step 1-5
Circulation performs；
Step 3-4: detect current t0Moment Real-time Load low capacity overload level L2(t0) whether it is high level, if high
Level, then switch loaded capacity-regulated switch, from low capacity working method, distribution transformer is switched to Large Copacity working method, and remembers
Record capacity transfer action so that t0=t0+ 1, return the circulation of step 1-5 and perform；Otherwise go to step 3-5；
Step 3-5: detection t0+ 1 moment, t0+ 2 moment, t0+ 3 moment and t0The prediction load condition level L in+4 moment3(t0+1)、
L3(t0+2)、L3(t0+3)、L3(t0+ 4) and prediction load low capacity overload level L4(t0+1)、L4(t0+2)、
L4(t0+3)、L4(t0+ 4) whether the condition that distribution transformer is maintained at low capacity working method is met, if it is satisfied, then
Make t0=t0+ 1, return the circulation of step 1-5 and perform；Otherwise switch loaded capacity-regulated switch, distribution transformer is worked from low capacity
Mode is switched to Large Copacity working method, and records capacity transfer action so that t0=t0+ 1, return the circulation of step 1-5 and perform.
In described step 3-3, meeting one of following condition can be switched to low capacity by distribution transformer from Large Copacity working method
Working method (specifically refers to self adaptation load distribution transformer and is switched to low capacity working method condition from Large Copacity working method
Curve, such as Fig. 3):
3-3-1)t0+ 1 moment, t0+ 2 moment, t0+ 3 moment and t0The predicted load in+4 moment is both less than capacity transfer definite value Scr, i.e.
Prediction load condition level is all low level；
3-3-2)t0+ 1 moment, t0+ 2 moment, t0+ 3 moment and t0In+4 moment in moment four, the load in any three moment is pre-
Measured value is both less than capacity transfer definite value Scr, the predicted load in remaining moment is less than the volume under distribution transformer low capacity working method
Constant volume SN is little1.2 times；In i.e. four moment, the prediction load condition level in three moment is all low level, a moment
Prediction load low capacity overload level is low level；
3-3-3)t0+ 1 moment, t0+ 2 moment, t0+ 3 moment and t0In+4 moment in moment four, the load in any two moment is pre-
Measured value is both less than capacity transfer definite value Scr, the predicted load in remaining two moment is less than the volume under distribution transformer low capacity working method
Constant volume SN is little1.2 times；In i.e. four moment, the prediction load condition level in two moment is all low level, two moment
Prediction load low capacity overload level is all low level.
In described step 3-5, meet one of following condition and distribution transformer can be remained low capacity working method and (specifically may be used
Reference adaptive load distribution transformer keeps low capacity working method condition curve, such as Fig. 4):
3-5-1)t0+ 1 moment, t0+ 2 moment, t0+ 3 moment and t0The predicted load in+4 moment is both less than capacity transfer definite value Scr, i.e.
Prediction load condition level is all low level；
3-5-2)t0+ 1 moment, t0+ 2 moment, t0+ 3 moment and t0In+4 moment in moment four, the load in any three moment is pre-
Measured value is both less than capacity transfer definite value Scr, the predicted load in remaining moment is less than rated capacity S under low capacity working methodN is little
1.2 times；In i.e. four moment, the prediction load condition level in three moment is all low level, and the prediction load in a moment is little
Capacity overload state level is low level.
The present invention utilizes distribution transformer Comprehensive Control terminal monitor load condition in real time and record preservation, then according to history and reality
Time the data such as load, temperature, date type carry out short-term (ultra-short term) load prediction, and then according to prediction load and the most negative
Lotus data, formulate rational loaded capacity-regulated control strategy, make distribution transformer self adaptation load carry out capacity transfer, promote distribution transformer
The safety of device, economy, stable operation.
Finally should be noted that: above example is only in order to illustrate that technical scheme is not intended to limit, although reference
The present invention has been described in detail by above-described embodiment, those of ordinary skill in the field it is understood that still can to this
Invention detailed description of the invention modify or equivalent, and without departing from spirit and scope of the invention any amendment or etc.
With replacing, it all should be contained in the middle of scope of the presently claimed invention.
Claims (7)
1. the loaded capacity-regulated method of distribution transformer based on short-term load forecasting, it is characterised in that: described distribution transformer is
Self adaptation load type distribution transformer or loading capacitance-regulating distribution transformer, said method comprising the steps of:
Step 1: monitor load condition in real time and record preservation；
Step 2: carry out short-term load forecasting, and then generate state level；
Step 3: determine the loaded capacity-regulated strategy of distribution transformer and carry out associative operation；
Described step 2 comprises the following steps:
Step 2-1: carry out short-term load forecasting according to load prediction key element, obtain t0+ 1 moment is to t0N the moment in the+n moment
The predicted load S of pointp{Sp(t0+ 1), Sp(t0+ 2) ..., Sp(t0+ i) ..., Sp(t0+ n-1), Sp(t0+n)}；
Step 2-2: according to predicted load and real-time load data, generates state level；
Described state level includes Real-time Load state level L1, Real-time Load low capacity overload level L2, prediction load shape
State level L3, prediction load low capacity overload level L4, loaded capacity-regulated switch real time state level L5；
In described step 2-1, load prediction key element includes historical load data, real-time load data, temperature information and date class
Type information；
In described step 2-2, it is as follows that each state level generates process:
(1) Real-time Load state level L is generated1:
If current t0Real-time Load S (the t in moment0) more than capacity transfer definite value Scr, then current t0The Real-time Load state level in moment
L1(t0) it is high level；
If current t0Real-time Load S (the t in moment0) less than capacity transfer definite value Scr, then current t0The Real-time Load state level in moment
L1(t0) it is low level；
(2) Real-time Load low capacity overload level L is generated2:
If current t0Real-time Load S (the t in moment0) more than rated capacity S under distribution transformer low capacity working methodN is little1.2
Times, then current t0The Real-time Load low capacity overload level L in moment2(t0) it is high level；
If current t0Real-time Load S (the t in moment0) less than rated capacity S under distribution transformer low capacity working methodN is little1.2
Times, then current t0The Real-time Load low capacity overload level L in moment2(t0) it is low level；
(3) prediction load condition level L is generated3:
If t0The predicted load S in+i momentp(t0+ i) more than capacity transfer definite value Scr, then t0The prediction load condition level in+i moment
L3(t0+ i) it is high level；
If t0The predicted load S in+i momentp(t0+ i) less than capacity transfer definite value Scr, then t0The prediction load condition level in+i moment
L3(t0+ i) it is low level；
(4) prediction load low capacity overload level L is generated4:
If t0The predicted load S in+i momentp(t0+ i) more than rated capacity S under distribution transformer low capacity working methodN is little's
1.2 times, then t0The prediction load low capacity overload level L in+i moment4(t0+ i) it is high level；
If t0The predicted load S in+i momentp(t0+ i) less than rated capacity S under distribution transformer low capacity working methodN is little's
1.2 times, then t0The prediction load low capacity overload level L in+i moment4(t0+ i) it is low level；
(5) loaded capacity-regulated switch real time state level L is generated5:
If current t0Moment loaded capacity-regulated switch is in Large Copacity gear, then current t0The loaded capacity-regulated switch real time state in moment
Level L5(t0) it is high level；
If current t0Moment loaded capacity-regulated switch is in low capacity gear, then current t0The loaded capacity-regulated switch real time state in moment
Level L5(t0) it is low level.
The loaded capacity-regulated method of distribution transformer based on short-term load forecasting the most according to claim 1, it is characterised in that:
In described step 1, in distribution transformer, Comprehensive Control terminal carries out self-inspection, and monitors current t in real time0The voltage of moment load,
Electric current and power factor, generate Real-time Load and record preservation.
The loaded capacity-regulated method of distribution transformer based on short-term load forecasting the most according to claim 2, it is characterised in that:
Described step 1 specifically includes following steps:
Step 1-1: Comprehensive Control terminal powers on and carries out self-inspection, if self-inspection makes mistakes, then Comprehensive Control terminal locking record fault；
If self-inspection is normal, then proceed to step 1-2；
Step 1-2: read the capacity transfer mode status signal of Comprehensive Control terminal, it is judged that need to carry out automatic capacity transfer or manual capacity transfer；
If needing manual capacity transfer, then perform manual capacity transfer；If needing automatic capacity transfer, then proceed to step 1-3；
Step 1-3: read the three-phase voltage phase sequence status signal of Comprehensive Control terminal, it is judged that the three-phase voltage phase sequence of distribution transformer
The most normal；If three-phase voltage phase sequence is abnormal, then Comprehensive Control terminal locking record fault；If three-phase voltage phase sequence is just
Often, then step 1-4 is proceeded to；
Step 1-4: capacity transfer definite value S of distribution transformer is setcrWith Comprehensive Control terminal data acquisition time spacing value tset, tset
It it is 15 minutes；
Step 1-5: Comprehensive Control terminal gathers the current t of distribution transformer0Voltage u (the t in moment0), electric current i (t0) and power factor f (t0),
Generate Real-time Load S (t0)；
Step 1-6: record current t0Real-time Load S (the t in moment0) and be saved in history data repository.
The loaded capacity-regulated method of distribution transformer based on short-term load forecasting the most according to claim 3, it is characterised in that:
In described step 3, according to each state level of current time and following instant and situation of change thereof, determine that distribution transformer has load to adjust
Hold strategy and carry out associative operation.
5., according to claim 4 or the described loaded capacity-regulated method of distribution transformer based on short-term load forecasting, its feature exists
Following steps are specifically included in: described step 3:
Step 3-1: detect current t0Moment loaded capacity-regulated switch real time state level L5(t0) whether with Real-time Load state level L1(t0)
Equal, if equal, make t0=t0+ 1, return the circulation of step 1-5 and perform；Otherwise go to step 3-2；
Step 3-2: detect current t0Moment loaded capacity-regulated switch real time state level L5(t0) whether it is low level, if low electricity
Flat then go to step 3-4；Otherwise go to step 3-3；
Step 3-3: detection t0+ 1 moment, t0+ 2 moment, t0+ 3 moment and t0The prediction load condition level L in+4 moment3(t0+1)、
L3(t0+2)、L3(t0+3)、L3(t0+ 4) and prediction load low capacity overload level L4(t0+1)、L4(t0+2)、
L4(t0+3)、L4(t0+ 4) whether the bar that distribution transformer is switched to low capacity working method is met from Large Copacity working method
Part, if meeting, switching loaded capacity-regulated switch, from Large Copacity working method, distribution transformer is switched to low capacity working method,
And after recording capacity transfer action so that t0=t0+ 1, and return the circulation execution of step 1-5；The most directly make t0=t0+ 1, return
The circulation of step 1-5 performs；
Step 3-4: detect current t0Moment Real-time Load low capacity overload level L2(t0) whether it is high level, if high
Level, then switch loaded capacity-regulated switch, from low capacity working method, distribution transformer is switched to Large Copacity working method, and remembers
After record capacity transfer action so that t0=t0+ 1, and return the circulation execution of step 1-5；Otherwise go to step 3-5；
Step 3-5: detection t0+ 1 moment, t0+ 2 moment, t0+ 3 moment and t0The prediction load condition level L in+4 moment3(t0+1)、
L3(t0+2)、L3(t0+3)、L3(t0+ 4) and prediction load low capacity overload level L4(t0+1)、L4(t0+2)、
L4(t0+3)、L4(t0+ 4) whether the condition that distribution transformer is maintained at low capacity working method is met, if it is satisfied, then
Make t0=t0+ 1, return the circulation of step 1-5 and perform；Otherwise switch loaded capacity-regulated switch, distribution transformer is worked from low capacity
Mode is switched to Large Copacity working method, and after recording capacity transfer action so that t0=t0+ 1, return the circulation of step 1-5 and perform.
The loaded capacity-regulated method of distribution transformer based on short-term load forecasting the most according to claim 5, it is characterised in that:
In described step 3-3, meeting one of following condition can be switched to low capacity work by distribution transformer from Large Copacity working method
Mode:
3-3-1)t0+ 1 moment, t0+ 2 moment, t0+ 3 moment and t0The predicted load in+4 moment is both less than capacity transfer definite value Scr, i.e.
Prediction load condition level is all low level；
3-3-2)t0+ 1 moment, t0+ 2 moment, t0+ 3 moment and t0In+4 moment in moment four, the load in any three moment is pre-
Measured value is both less than capacity transfer definite value Scr, the predicted load in remaining moment is less than the volume under distribution transformer low capacity working method
Constant volume SN is little1.2 times；In i.e. four moment, the prediction load condition level in three moment is all low level, a moment
Prediction load low capacity overload level is low level；
3-3-3)t0+ 1 moment, t0+ 2 moment, t0+ 3 moment and t0In+4 moment in moment four, the load in any two moment is pre-
Measured value is both less than capacity transfer definite value Scr, the predicted load in remaining two moment is less than the volume under distribution transformer low capacity working method
Constant volume SN is little1.2 times；In i.e. four moment, the prediction load condition level in two moment is all low level, two moment
Prediction load low capacity overload level is all low level.
The loaded capacity-regulated method of distribution transformer based on short-term load forecasting the most according to claim 5, it is characterised in that:
In described step 3-5, meet one of following condition and distribution transformer can remain low capacity working method:
3-5-1)t0+ 1 moment, t0+ 2 moment, t0+ 3 moment and t0The predicted load in+4 moment is both less than capacity transfer definite value Scr, i.e.
Prediction load condition level is all low level；
3-5-2)t0+ 1 moment, t0+ 2 moment, t0+ 3 moment and t0In+4 moment in moment four, the load in any three moment is pre-
Measured value is both less than capacity transfer definite value Scr, the predicted load in remaining moment is less than rated capacity S under low capacity working methodN is little
1.2 times；In i.e. four moment, the prediction load condition level in three moment is all low level, and the prediction load in a moment is little
Capacity overload state level is low level.
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| CN105989544A (en) * | 2015-03-04 | 2016-10-05 | 国家电网公司 | Adaptive short-term load prediction method for power distribution transformer area |
| CN105827167B (en) * | 2016-05-28 | 2018-03-13 | 国网山东省电力公司金乡县供电公司 | It is a kind of to have the transformer station for carrying Intelligent capacity-adjusting transformer and using the transformer |
| CN109217754B (en) * | 2018-10-12 | 2020-06-16 | 云南电力试验研究院(集团)有限公司 | Capacity switching control method and device for on-load automatic capacity regulating transformer |
| CN111769548A (en) * | 2020-06-12 | 2020-10-13 | 云南电网有限责任公司昆明供电局 | Remote intelligent regulation and control system and method for distribution transformer |
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