CN104240138A - Method for quantitatively evaluating regional solar energy resource development potential - Google Patents
Method for quantitatively evaluating regional solar energy resource development potential Download PDFInfo
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- CN104240138A CN104240138A CN201310235293.7A CN201310235293A CN104240138A CN 104240138 A CN104240138 A CN 104240138A CN 201310235293 A CN201310235293 A CN 201310235293A CN 104240138 A CN104240138 A CN 104240138A
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Abstract
The invention discloses a process method for quantitatively evaluating regional solar energy resource development potential through integrated application of a geographic information system (GIS) spatial analysis technology and a quantified model method. According to the specific evaluating process, the method comprises the basic steps of (1) simulating solar energy radiant quantity spatial distribution; (2) estimating regional solar energy resource theoretical potential including a built-up region roof-mounted photovoltaic application type and a non-built-up region large-scale grid-connected photovoltaic power station application type; (3) estimating regional solar energy resource technological potential, in other words, considering technological factors like photovoltaic power generation conversion efficiency, and the total annual average power generation quantity of each geographic unit; (4) estimating regional solar energy resource economic potential, in other words, considering the photovoltaic power generation cost factor, calculating the unit photovoltaic power generation cost, drawing a cost supply curve, and finally determining the regional solar energy resource economic potential according to the photovoltaic power generation grid purchase price.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to regenerative resource assessment technique field.Set up a kind of flow and method that can be used to quantitative evaluation region solar energy resources potentiality to be exploited specifically.
Background technology
The regenerative resource that solar energy resources is a kind of environmental friendliness, reserves are huge is also the green energy resource always keeping the fast-developing impetus in recent years.Locus and the installed capacity factor of regenerative resource facility are most important for the exploitation of regenerative resource.Quantitative evaluation solar energy resources potentiality are the bases of formulating ENERGY PLANNING, and the exploitation for region solar energy resources provide basic data and engineering construction to instruct.In the research of sun power Potential Evaluation, although a lot of scholar has carried out large quantity research to the solar energy resources Potential Evaluation on different spaces yardstick, but in the method for evaluation and the quality control of analysis result, also do not form unified standard, cause different result of study to lack comparability; In addition, relatively many from the relevant evaluation research the large scale such as global, national, and less for the scrutiny in the Small and Medium Sized such as provincial, city, have impact on the practical advice meaning of analysis result to a certain extent.
Summary of the invention
For above problem, integrated application Geographic Information System (GIS) Spatial Data Analysis of the present invention and quantitative model method, establish a kind of flow and method that can be used to quantitative evaluation region solar energy resources potentiality to be exploited.Concrete evaluation procedure, see figure mono-, comprises four basic steps: (1) analog solar radiant quantity space distribution; (2) estimation area solar energy resources theoretical inspiration, comprises the large-scale grid-connected photovoltaic power station of roof, built-up areas photovoltaic application and non-built-up areas and applies two types; (3) estimation area solar energy resources Technology Potential, namely considers the technical factors such as photovoltaic generation conversion efficiency, the average annual generating total amount of each geographical unit; (4) estimation area solar energy resources economic potential, namely considers photovoltaic generation cost factor, unit of account photovoltaic generation cost, and draws cost supply curve, and final foundation photovoltaic generation rate for incorporation into the power network determines region solar energy resources economic potential.Detailed assessment process is as follows:
(1) analog solar radiant quantity space distribution
The solar radiation that earth surface receives comprises three parts, i.e. directly radiation, scattered radiation and reflected radiation, and the summation of three is called solar radiation total amount.Usually, direct radiation is part maximum in radiation amount, and scattered radiation then comes second, and reflected radiation only accounts for a part very little in radiation amount.Therefore, radiation amount is generally calculated as the summation of direct radiation and scattered radiation.Solar radiation analysis tool (Solar Radiation Graphics) in application ArcGIS9.3 software in Spatial Analyst expansion module, the spatial distribution state of simulated domain solar radiation amount.Solar radiation analysis tool needs input elevation face raster data (DEM) and region annual atmospheric transparency parameter, calculates the solar radiation data of high spatial resolution;
(2) estimation area solar energy resources theoretical inspiration
From practical application pattern, can be divided into two kinds: one is beyond built-up areas, large-scale grid connection photovoltaic plant is built in main consideration; Another kind is in built-up areas, and photovoltaic roof power station is built in main consideration.Above two kinds of application modes separately discussed, utilizing recent land use data, is two classes by land use pattern merger: built-up areas and non-built-up areas.The extract by mask instrument of application GIS spatial analysis module, extracts sun power built-up radiation raster data with two class Land_use change vector datas, obtains two class sun power built-up radiation raster datas in region.According to the existing geographical limited service areas having determined nine class solar energy resources exploitations: the region that water body, wetland, swampland, wilderness area, historic site, national park, mineral products, basic farmland and the gradient are greater than 4 °.The above-mentioned region that is not suitable for is rejected;
For the potentiality of solar energy power generating in assessment built-up areas, first quantitative estimation is needed to can be used for installing the roof area of photovoltaic plant
w i , each geographic grid
iinterior available roof area can use following formulae discovery:
（1）
In formula,
b i for geographic grid
ithe interior built-up areas total area;
dfor geographic grid
iinterior roof area accounts for the ratio of the total area, and roof area is about that the 20%(of the built-up areas total area is usual in the world to be calculated by 15% ~ 30%); A is the popularity rate of photovoltaic generating system, is set as 30%;
Then geographic grid
ithe theoretical inspiration of interior photovoltaic generation (
p i g ) available following formulae discovery:
（2）
In formula,
r i for geographic grid
iinterior solar radiation total amount;
(3) estimation area solar energy resources Technology Potential
The generated energy of photovoltaic generating system is mainly subject to the impact of three factors, namely local solar radiation amount, the installation scale of photovoltaic system and comprehensive transformation efficiency.Photovoltaic power generation quantity (E in each geographic grid i
i) available following formulae discovery:
（3）
In formula, P
ifor the installed capacity (kWp) of photovoltaic system in geographic grid i; G
ifor the solar radiation total amount (kWh/yr) of geographic grid i inner horizontal; η
tfor the total efficiency of photovoltaic system; 1000W/m
2for the standard sources test condition of solar cell;
(4) estimation area solar energy resources economic potential
The total cost of photovoltaic generation is made up of three parts, i.e. initial outlay, operation expense and transmission cost.Initial outlay is made up of photovoltaic generating system cost and construction cost.Transmission cost only accounts for the very little ratio of total cost, therefore is ignored.Photovoltaic generation cost (PC in each geographic grid i
i) available following formulae discovery:
（4）
（5）
In formula, I is the initial outlay of photovoltaic generating system, and it depends on system installation scale; E
ifor the annual electricity generating capacity (kWh) in geographic grid i; R is rate of discount (being generally 8%); N is the entire life (25 years) of system; C
o & Mfor operation and maintenance cost, be assumed to be 3% of gross investment; Loan adopts equal principal mode of repayment, and L is year amount to pay;
Based on formula (4) and (5), the cost of electricity-generating (unit/kWh) on each geographic grid can be calculated.The spatial statistics function of application GIS, calculate the region year gross generation corresponding to cost of electricity-generating at certain numerical value interval successively, and the some arrays finally obtained are sorted according to cost of electricity-generating order from low to high, do scatter diagram with this array, finally obtain the cost supply curve (GSC) of region sun power.The mode of statistics cost of electricity-generating ordered series of numbers, as the representative cost in this region, is worth the economic potential that corresponding accumulated generation amount is exactly region sun power therewith.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is region solar energy resources exploitation potential assessment process flow diagram.
Claims (2)
1. integrated application Geographic Information System (GIS) Spatial Data Analysis of the present invention and quantitative model method, establish a kind of flow and method that can be used to quantitative evaluation region solar energy resources potentiality to be exploited.
2. concrete evaluation procedure comprises four basic steps: (1) analog solar radiant quantity space distribution; (2) estimation area solar energy resources theoretical inspiration, comprises the large-scale grid-connected photovoltaic power station of roof, built-up areas photovoltaic application and non-built-up areas and applies two types; (3) estimation area solar energy resources Technology Potential, namely considers the technical factors such as photovoltaic generation conversion efficiency, the average annual generating total amount of each geographical unit; (4) estimation area solar energy resources economic potential, namely considers photovoltaic generation cost factor, unit of account photovoltaic generation cost, and draws cost supply curve, and final foundation photovoltaic generation rate for incorporation into the power network determines region solar energy resources economic potential.
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Cited By (5)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN105046091A (en) * | 2015-08-18 | 2015-11-11 | 河海大学 | Experience regression based photo-voltaic resource estimation representative radiation data generation method |
| CN107909511A (en) * | 2017-11-20 | 2018-04-13 | 泗县汉能诚信电气工程有限公司 | A kind of photovoltaic plant scheme generation method |
| CN110070273A (en) * | 2019-04-03 | 2019-07-30 | 国网能源研究院有限公司 | One kind being based on economic evaluation new energy exploitable deposit and developing zone method of selecting |
| CN110837977A (en) * | 2019-11-15 | 2020-02-25 | 国网能源研究院有限公司 | Theory, technology and economy three-dimensional development potential evaluation method for photovoltaic power generation base |
| CN114819450A (en) * | 2021-09-22 | 2022-07-29 | 自然资源部国土卫星遥感应用中心 | Regional construction distributed photovoltaic potential evaluation method based on satellite remote sensing |
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| CN1920556A (en) * | 2006-09-13 | 2007-02-28 | 南京大学 | Method for evaluating GIS-based agricultural non-point pollution production potential index |
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| CN1920556A (en) * | 2006-09-13 | 2007-02-28 | 南京大学 | Method for evaluating GIS-based agricultural non-point pollution production potential index |
Non-Patent Citations (3)
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| YOSOON CHOI .ET: "PV Analyst: Coupling ArcGIS with TRNSYS to assess distributed photovoltaic potential in urban areas", 《SOLAR ENERGY》 * |
| 孙艳伟 等: "基于GIS的福建省陆地风能资源开发潜力评估", 《资源科学》 * |
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Cited By (6)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN105046091A (en) * | 2015-08-18 | 2015-11-11 | 河海大学 | Experience regression based photo-voltaic resource estimation representative radiation data generation method |
| CN107909511A (en) * | 2017-11-20 | 2018-04-13 | 泗县汉能诚信电气工程有限公司 | A kind of photovoltaic plant scheme generation method |
| CN110070273A (en) * | 2019-04-03 | 2019-07-30 | 国网能源研究院有限公司 | One kind being based on economic evaluation new energy exploitable deposit and developing zone method of selecting |
| CN110837977A (en) * | 2019-11-15 | 2020-02-25 | 国网能源研究院有限公司 | Theory, technology and economy three-dimensional development potential evaluation method for photovoltaic power generation base |
| CN114819450A (en) * | 2021-09-22 | 2022-07-29 | 自然资源部国土卫星遥感应用中心 | Regional construction distributed photovoltaic potential evaluation method based on satellite remote sensing |
| CN114819450B (en) * | 2021-09-22 | 2022-11-18 | 自然资源部国土卫星遥感应用中心 | Regional construction distributed photovoltaic potential evaluation method based on satellite remote sensing |
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