Background technology
The analysis prediction of individual well behavior is an important content in field production management.And use general to oil well at present
Conventional analysis method, such as analysis of manufacturing capability, Production Decline Analysis.These methods are all to isolate oil well and do not consider ambient water
The influence of well.Some the unconventional methods analyzed between well, such as interference test, tracer test technology often all can be caused by
The stopping production of oil well or expense are too high and are seldom used.Study the behavior of well group using numerical simulation mostly now, it is such as polynary
Time Series Analysis Method.
System mode point stable state, unstable state and the transition state fallen between.For oil-water well row
For prediction generally use modeling pattern, the sample of collection is it is assumed to obtain under system stable state, mathematics is then set up
Model is predicted to oil-water well behavior, and for the transition state in potential, initial non-steady state, existing prediction algorithm
It can not distinguish whether the gathered data for modeling is reliable.Therefore for the centre in stabilization process and non-steady state, transition
Stage, or due to the reason such as ageing equipment, system be unstable so that when gathered data deviates former stable state, now utilize
Data comprising unstable information build forecast model, and prediction effect certainly will be caused to deviate systems stabilisation direction, so as to cause erroneous judgement
Generation.And through consulting the algorithm recognized currently without pertinent literature to modeling data, it is therefore necessary to modeling data
Identification analysis, i.e. the initial matrix stability to modeling is carried out to recognize.
The content of the invention
The technical problem to be solved in the present invention is to provide a kind of oil-water well behavioural analysis prediction meanss and method.
To solve the above problems, the technical solution adopted by the present invention includes measurand oil well and is arranged in around oil well
Well, it is characterised in that:Crude oil water content sensor and water filling quantity sensor are respectively equipped with the oil well, well, is used respectively
In the moisture content and the water injection rate of well of collection oil well, and the analog quantity of collection is converted into digital quantity through A/D converter, then led to
Cross data cable to transmit to host computer, the host computer carries out stability identification to gathered data.
The method that described device is realized, it is characterised in that the host computer, which carries out stability identification to gathered data, to be included such as
Lower step:
If collectionIndividual data volume, collect enough samples and be divided intoIt is individualMatrix,For
Natural number;
(1)OrderWhenRank matrixFor stable state, its covariance matrix is taken, then characteristic equation be:;
(2)It is considered that remainingIt is individualThe judgement of stability of rank matrix is in normal processes dataOn the basis of scramble
Dynamic change is formed, if disturbance influences little to former process, then it is assumed that be benign disturbance, be otherwise pernicious disturbance, the former can use
In structure forecast model or for more new model, it is expressed as with the language of mathematics:TheIt is individualRank matrix covariance is, corresponding characteristic root and characteristic vector change are turned to:,, thenIt is individualRank square
Battle array covariance characteristic equation be:, above formula neutralizing is obtained;
(3)2 norms are taken to obtain to above formula, asIt is individualThe covariance matrix of rank matrix is aligned
The relative error of normal process data matrix, because covariance matrix is symmetrical matrix, so,
Because matrix belongs to real symmetric matrix and has complete characteristic vector-system in the formula, the maximum of matrix can be asked for using power method iteration
Characteristic value;
(4)Repeat(2)、(3)Until, norm value is less to think normal processes data, otherwise may be considered just
Beginning fault data or fault data, should be abandoned.
The present invention provides stability identification algorithm to the data for modeling, understands with step, and algorithm is simple, and effect is full
The advantages of foot is required.The present invention is applied to the analysis of oil-water well behavior prediction and will further improve prediction accuracy, so that indirectly
Improve field management efficiency.Other apparatus of the present invention have it is simple and easy to apply, it is easy for installation, the advantages of lightweight.
Embodiment
As shown in figure 1, the oil-water well behavioural analysis prediction meanss of the present invention, including measurand oil well 1 and it is arranged in oil
Crude oil water content sensor 3 and water filling quantity sensor 4 are respectively equipped with well 2 around well, the oil well 1, well 2, respectively
Digital quantity is converted into through A/D converter 5 for gathering the moisture content of oil well and the water injection rate of well, and by the analog quantity of collection,
Transmitted again by data cable to host computer 6, the host computer carries out stability identification to gathered data.
The host computer carries out stability identification to gathered data and comprised the following steps:
If collectionIndividual data volume, collect enough samples and be divided intoIt is individualMatrix,For
Natural number;
(1)OrderWhenRank matrixFor stable state, its covariance matrix is taken(Still use the code name), then feature
Equation is:;WhereinForRank matrix, is made up of gathered data;For matrixCharacteristic value;ForRank is single
First battle array;It is characterized vector;The equation is solution matrixCharacteristic value obtains formula.
(2)It is considered that remainingIt is individualThe judgement of stability of rank matrix is in normal processes dataOn the basis of scramble
Dynamic change is formed, if disturbance influences little to former process, then it is assumed that be benign disturbance, be otherwise pernicious disturbance, the former can use
In structure forecast model or for more new model, it is expressed as with the language of mathematics:TheIt is individualRank matrix covariance is(For perturbation matrix,, and), corresponding characteristic root and characteristic vector change(Or
The change of solution)For:,(, and), thenIt is individualRank matrix covariance
Characteristic equation be:, above formula neutralizing is obtained;
(3)2 norms are taken to obtain to above formula, asIt is individualThe covariance matrix of rank matrix is aligned
The relative error of normal process data matrix, because covariance matrix is symmetrical matrix, so,
Because matrix belongs to real symmetric matrix and has complete characteristic vector-system in the formula, the maximum of matrix can be asked for using power method iteration
Characteristic value;Each alphabetical implication is same(1)Step.Power method is one for solution matrix eigenvalue of maximum and corresponding characteristic vector
Iterative algorithm is planted, is a kind of numerical analysis method, its basic thought is:
Assuming that askingRank matrixCharacteristic value and characteristic vector, first appoint take one it is initialDimensional vector, and(Note:AskInfinite Norm).Algorithm terminates constant, put;Calculation procedure is as follows(Get a foothold
MarkFor iterations):
A. calculate;
B. ask;
c.
If d., then approximate characteristic vector is exportedAnd approximate eigenvalue, calculated to terminate
Method.Otherwise put, return to a steps.
(4)Repeat(2)、(3)Until, norm value is less to think normal processes data, otherwise may be considered just
Beginning fault data or fault data, should be abandoned.
Experimental example:
A certain oil field block, the block is 5 areal well patterns, and injector producer distance is 500m.5 well groups are taken to be noted
Adopt correspondence analysis.Oil, the relative position of well are in 5 well groups:Centre is a bite oil well, 4 mouthfuls of well saliva wells of arrangement, west around it
Beijiao and northeast corner are well 1 and well 2, and southwest corner and southeast corner are well 3 and well 4.
If profit well group is regarded as the system of a multiple-input and multiple-output, a bite oil well and surrounding well or a bite well
Production target with surrounding oil well is to constitute a multivariate time series, and 4 mouthfuls of well saliva wells of water ratio in oil well and turnover are gathered respectively
Water injection rate, is monthly gathered once, totally 26 times, history of forming data.Water ratio in oil well and well water injection rate initial data such as table 1 below
It is shown:
System model is used(Autoregression(autoregressive,AR)Model is also known as time series models)Model,
The least square method of recursion of parameter Estimation is set up such as drag, here only progress data stability analysis.
Measurement dataWater ratio in oil well, the water injection rate of well 1, the water injection rate of well 2, the note of well 3 are represented respectively
Water and the water injection rate of well 4, subscriptRepresent current time.This five amounts are by white noiseInfluence is as follows:
1000 samples are gathered under normal circumstances and then white Gaussian noise interference are added in the 1-200 sample, according to above-mentioned
Sample is divided lower 200 5 rank square formations by the method for technical scheme, relative variation is calculated respectively, schematic diagram is as shown in Figure 2, preceding
40 square formations are due to adding Gaussian noise influence, so 2 norms are very big with subsequently being compared fluctuation.Thus it is effective to illustrate this algorithm
's.
The foregoing is only presently preferred embodiments of the present invention, be not intended to limit the invention, it is all the present invention spirit and
Any modifications, equivalent substitutions and improvements made within principle etc., are all contained within protection scope of the present invention.