CN104156525B - A kind of method for improving storm surge disaster risk profile precision - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses a kind of method for improving storm surge disaster risk profile precision, the described method comprises the following steps：Storm surge disaster scene is built based on condition analysis method；Propose storm surge disaster Three-dimensional Numerical Simulation Method；The big flood for building multi-mode multiple target is taken refuge optimal route selection model；Wherein, the proposition storm surge disaster Three-dimensional Numerical Simulation Method is specially：1) three-dimensional grid model of region landform is set up；2) the SST k ω advance of freshet Three-dimensional Turbulent Flow models of coupling VOF methods are set up；3) based on Three-dimensional simulation result drawing three-dimensional risk map.Invention increases the flowing of flood dynamic realtime and the authenticity and effect of visualization of disaster Annual distribution；The integrity and reasonability of emergency-sheltering system are further improved with the emergency route evacuation model of multi-mode multiple target, calamity emergency prediction scheme is effectively formulated, multiple modules coupling, the storm surge disaster risk analysis system that integrity degree is high, exploitativeness is strong is set up.

Description

A kind of method for improving storm surge disaster risk profile precision

Technical field

It is pre- the present invention relates to civil construction and hydraulic engineering technical field, more particularly to a kind of raising storm surge disaster risk The method for surveying precision.

Background technology

Storm surge disaster is paid much attention to, the research to disaster by country and government as first of Oceanic disasters Naturally the most important thing is become.The Main Means of research storm surge disaster are numerical simulation at present, and Numerical Simulation of Storm Surge includes The numerical simulation that the numerical simulation and disaster process of hazard forecasting are flooded.Present invention seek to address that flood after storm surge disaster generation Problem in terms of real time dynamic simulation, disaster time space distribution and emergency preplan formulation, is the disaster prevention and mitigation engineering of storm tide Strong technical support is provided.

Abroad in storm surge disaster research, Ken.Granger^[1]To the storm surge disaster wind in Australian Cairns cities Danger has carried out Quantitative study, according to different storm tide tidal heights, digital elevation (DEM) model and flood inundation on tracks depth design not With storm tide exposure scene, and exposed property to building and urban infrastructure assessed, and establishes community in urban areas Evaluation of vulnerability index system and comprehensive evaluation index；J.Benavente^[2]To Spain Jia Si gulfs littoral area littoral Area's storm tide flood hazard is studied, and is calculated storm tide tidal height, set up DEM models and two-dimentional storm tide advance of freshet mould Type, depicts storm tide flood risk mapping；RafaelUsing Delft3D-Flow softwares, with two-dimentional hydrodynamic force USA New York Long Island coastwise has the flood inundation on tracks situation of barrier region under scale-model investigation storm surge disaster；Rosemary A.E.Smith [4], with reference to radar data, simulates Britain's coastwise Typhoon Storm Surge Over in southwest region based on two-dimentional hydraulic model Flood inundation on tracks influences, and calculates Drown Area, analyzes disaster situation；Andre′B.Fortunato^[5]Based on two-dimensional shallow water mould Type, sets up storm surge disaster mathematic flooding model, calculates Portugal region different reoccurrence storm tide flood inundation on tracks depth of water, face The hydraulic parameters such as product, further draw flood inundation on tracks risk map；

At home in storm surge disaster research, Zhang Wenting etc.^[6]Based on GIS technology, two dimension flood is set up using seed spread method Water submerged evolution model, obtains two-dimentional storm tide flood and inrushes and flood parameter, so as to further calculate flood risk grade, draws Flood risk mapping；Zhu Junzheng etc.^[7]By setting up two-dimentional hydrodynamic model, realize in the case of sea wall presence, storm tide occurs tide Situation is flooded during water overflow；Ye Mingwu^[8]From Typhoon Storm Surge Over calamity source system, using two-dimentional hydrodynamic model pair The storm surge disaster scene that inrushes carries out numerical simulation, most short for target sets up evacuating personnel emergency evacuation system with evacuation time； Zhou Yafei^[9]On the basis of Typhoon Storm Surge Over risk class zoning is carried out, using ADCirc mode computation storm tide flood inundation on tracks Scope and the depth of water, vehicle dispersal optimal path is calculated by Cell Transmission Model；Fu blesses^[10]For Binhai New District storm tide, Choose 4 intensity weather systems, using ADCirc Model Establishments two dimension storm tidal mashland model, with reference to storm tide flood risk with Hazard-affected body fragility draws calamity source figure.

From the point of view of a series of domestic and international researchs carried out and application, the research to storm surge disaster is generally based on simple hypothesis Overflow or overbank or single aspect, the research of single scene inrushed etc., without forming including with certain logic analysis Overbank, overflow, inrush, the compound scenario analysis system of storm surge disaster of various phenomenons such as more unrestrained, to the research of disaster scene not Comprehensively, concentrated expression ability is poor；The even one-dimensional hydrodynamic force of two dimension is also limited only to for the numerical simulation of single scene Model, has certain gap with the Three-dimensional Flow of actual storm tide flood；Emergency-sheltering research to storm tide flood is often people The solution of the single optimization aim of single evacuation mode of member's evacuation or vehicle dispersal is calculated, and emergency plan validity and applicability have Wait to improve.

The content of the invention

The invention provides it is a kind of improve storm surge disaster risk profile precision method, the present invention using scenario analysis, Flood three-dimensional evolution and the technology of emergency-sheltering model three coupling, set up multiple modules coupling, integrity degree is high, exploitativeness Strong storm surge disaster risk analysis system, it is described below：

A kind of method for improving storm surge disaster risk profile precision, the described method comprises the following steps：

Storm surge disaster scene is built based on condition analysis method；Propose storm surge disaster Three-dimensional Numerical Simulation Method；

The big flood for building multi-mode multiple target is taken refuge optimal route selection model；Wherein,

The proposition storm surge disaster Three-dimensional Numerical Simulation Method is specially：

1) three-dimensional grid model of region landform is set up；

2) the SST k- ω advance of freshet Three-dimensional Turbulent Flow models of coupling VOF methods are set up；

3) based on Three-dimensional simulation result drawing three-dimensional risk map.

The D S ST k- ω turbulent flow closings Mathematical Modeling is specially：

Continuity equation：

The equation of momentum：

SST k- ω Turbulent Equations：

Φ₃=F₁Φ₁+(1-F₁)Φ₂

ρ is density in formula；T is the time；x_i、x_jIt is coordinate components；u_i、u_jIt is x_i、x_jVelocity component on direction；P is pressure Power；μ is molecule power viscosity；μ_tIt is turbulent flow viscosity；Φ₁、Φ₂、Φ₃K- ω, k- ε and SST models, F are represented respectively₁ It is mixed function；ν_tIt is eddy viscosity, Ω is vorticity, F₂It is mixed function, k is tubulence energy, and ω is to compare dissipative shock wave；ν is viscous for motion Degree；CD_kωIt is just several for cross-diffusion；σ_ω2、α₁It is turbulence model constant, y is away from wall distance.

The Three-dimensional Turbulent Flow model boundary condition is specially：

1) inlet boundary condition：Relative atmospheric pressure is 0 at import；

2) export boundary condition：Each velocity component and k and ω are taken as second kind boundary condition, i.e.,φ takes u, V, w, k, ω, the velocity component that u, v, w are respectively on x, y, z direction export the constant pressure boundary that relatively large air pressure is zero；

3) wall boundary condition：Wall use without sliding, isothermal wall, normal pressure for zero condition, turbulence model is near The wall boundary condition of tubulence energy k equations is zero in wall design conditions, and the wall boundary condition of ω equation is ω=60 ν/[β₁ (Δy₁)²], wherein, ν is kinematic viscosity, β₁It is turbulivity, Δ y₁It is distance of the ground floor mesh point to wall on wall.

4) underlying surface border：Underlying surface border is processed using equivalent roughness method, and roughness is sign border surface to water Flow the coefficient of colligation of the various factors of drag effects.

The beneficial effect of technical scheme that the present invention is provided is：

1. the scene that storm surge disaster occurs is determined using condition analysis method, formd with certain tight The disaster scene of close logic analysis, specify that the direction of storm tide flood numerical simulation, reduce the blindness of numerical simulation study Property.

2. the Three-dimensional Turbulent Flow Simulation method being combined with SST k- ω Turbulent Equations using VOF is proposed, due to SSTk- ω equations combine the advantage of k- ω models and k- ε models, improve the fineness of turbulent boundary layer simulation, make storm The real time dynamic simulation of damp flood Three-dimensional Turbulent Flow more conforms to actual conditions, and applicability is stronger.

3. dimensional topography danger is combined with storm tide flood damage, by data field model to both integrated risks It is diffused, the expression of storm surge disaster three-dimensional risk is realized on the basis of area three-dimensional landform, not only increases storm The reliability of damp calamity source spatial and temporal distributions, also enhances flexibility and the effect of visualization of risk map.

4. the method being combined with dual-layer optimization target is evacuated with the mixing of people's car, by the improved ant group algorithm of potential field method Optimal path is calculated, the structure of the emergency evacuation system of multi-mode multiple target is realized, makes Emergency System more perfect, answer quick-acting prescription Case exploitativeness, application are stronger.

Brief description of the drawings

Fig. 1 is a kind of flow chart of the method for improving storm surge disaster risk profile precision；

Fig. 2 is that the storm surge disaster scene based on scenario analysis determines techniqueflow chart；

Fig. 3 is storm tide flood Three-dimensional simulation and risk map research framework；

Fig. 4 is the schematic diagram of storm surge disaster emergency-sheltering system.

Specific embodiment

To make the object, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention clearer, further is made to embodiment of the present invention below Ground is described in detail.

This method mainly includes three parts：With reference to scenario analysis model, the possibility scene that storm surge disaster occurs is determined, it is bright True disaster analysis direction；Based on water-air two phase flow Three-dimensional Turbulent Flow model, realize that a kind of storm tide flood inundation on tracks is dynamic in real time, true Analogy method reliable, mainly for complicated coastwise regional flood Three-dimensional Flow, and set up disaster wind with reference to data field model Dangerous distributed in three dimensions law-analysing pattern；On the basis of Hazard Risk Analysis, build multi-mode multiple target big flood take refuge it is optimal Path Choice Model, completes the structure of calamity source system, and holistic approach framework is as shown in Figure 1.

101：Storm surge disaster scene is built based on condition analysis method；

Storm surge disaster by storm tide natural ecosystems and human socioeconomic system constitute it is a kind of sudden from Right disaster, disaster scene is the presentation that storm tide causes calamity process and consequence, and its determination is the premise that disaster is further analyzed.Feelings Scape analysis method is, to be clearly assumed to be background, constantly to be arranged with the abundant scene of logical mode, finally draws phase Conclusion is answered, the method for analyzing the following uncertainty event of prediction is mainly used in traffic, agricultural development, environment or weather and becomes The fields such as change^[11], rarely have and be applied in storm surge disaster analysis.Because storm surge disaster formation, development, evolution process are present greatly Amount is uncertain, determination strong applicability of the condition analysis method for storm surge disaster scene.The diversified feelings of storm surge disaster Scape is that various key influence factors are constantly developed and formed to different directions, therefore, the knowledge of storm surge disaster influence factor Structure-scene of the determination of not-key influence factor-basic scene develops utilization (the main mistake of condition analysis method of method Journey) become the key that storm surge disaster scene determines, its technology path is as shown in Figure 2.

(1) identification-storm surge disaster of storm surge disaster influence factor is related to numerous uncertain factors, comprising nature , society, it is microcosmic, macroscopic view etc. many aspects, herein in conjunction with storm surge disaster risk Law, formed from storm surge disaster Process is set out, and Flood inducing factors, the pregnant calamity factor, the hazard-affected factor and the factor of preventing and reducing natural disasters of disaster is recognized, so as to filter out storm tide The influence factor of disaster.On the basis of storm surge disaster influence factor, there is factor overlapping, having inner link, close And be a kind of factor, carry out classification integration.

(2) determination of key influence factor-have certain ambiguity due to storm surge disaster influence factor, obscures comprehensive It is that ambiguous concept is studied in quantity to close evaluation, therefore, storm tide is determined using fuzzy synthetic appraisement method Disaster key influence factor.The storm surge disaster influence factor after integrating will be sorted out by " setting comment set-agriculture products (influence factor) weight-structure Evaluations matrix-overall merit " (fuzzy synthetic appraisement method)^[12]Determine influences on disaster Degree a number of factors higher, as the key influence factor of storm surge disaster.

(3) determination of basic scene-when crucial uncertain factor has two, three kind, commonly uses scene matrix and builds scene, There are two antipodal development trends in each scene dimension^[13](as shown in scene matrix in Fig. 2).To be commented by comprehensive The key influence factor that valency is determined carries out scene group by scene matrix as disaster scene basic dimensions to storm surge disaster Close, build the basic scene of disaster.

(4) scene differentiation-PSR models are that Anthony-Friend occurred in 1979 in the description complication system of proposition The model of phenomenon, with gem-pure causality, it is adaptable to which the attribute of a certain dynamic, change to complication system is divided Analysis is evaluated.Therefore, this method passes through PSR models to the basic scene for having built^[14]Enter (as shown in scene is developed in Fig. 2) market Scape is deduced, wherein " pressure ", " state ", " response " are represented with P, S, R respectively, scene development side is represented by horizontal, longitudinal direction arrow To.Lateral arrows represent " state S " in the case of " pressure P ", and " response R " effectively, event develops towards best direction, indulges Represent that " response R " is invalid to arrow, event develops towards the worst direction, thus analyzes storm surge disaster evolution process, it is determined that Disaster development path and disaster scene.

102：Propose storm surge disaster Three-dimensional Numerical Simulation Method

Storm tide flood carries out solution calculating under certain grid model, Mathematical Modeling and boundary condition, obtains flood The real-time dynamic 3 D numerical simulation of evolution.Based on the storm tide flood inundation on tracks the condition of a disaster information that numerical simulation is obtained, landform is added Risk factors, maintenance data field model draws disaster three-dimensional risk map, specific as shown in Figure 3.

(1) three-dimensional grid model of region landform is set up

Threedimensional model comprising complex region terrain information is changed into the data form of .stl, by Fluid Mechanics Computation The data-interface of (Computational Fluid Dynamics, abbreviation CFD) software, is conducted into cfdrc In, set up and calculate grid model using body fitted grids and local refined net partitioning technology, realize that region complexity landform is being calculated Accurate expression in fluidics software computation model.

(2) using D S ST k- ω turbulent flow closing Mathematical Modelings

For the turbulent flow field problem of storm tide flood, numerical simulation is carried out using one, two dimensional model mostly, and be to count not K- ε turbulence models are based on many three-dimensional water flow simulations more^[15], the model is in away from wall water flow simulation, and effect is preferable, but closely The flow turbulence simulation effect of wall is poor, in this regard, the present invention establishes the aqueous vapor of coupling VOF (Volume of Fluid) method Two phase flow SST (Shear-Stress Transport) k- ω three-dimensional advance of freshet models.VOF methods^[15]By Hirt and The effective ways for processing Free Surface that Nichols is proposed, by solving a convection current side of transporting of fluid volume function Journey catches the table of motion, more can subtly describe the water surface change of storm tide flood.SST(Shear- Stress Transport) k- ω turbulence models are Menter^[16]Based on k- ω, k- ε turbulence models propose for simulation water The model of chaotic Phenomena is flowed, this combines the advantage of two models, and original k- ω models are remained near wall, increased intersection Diffusion term, considers the course of conveying of shear stress in the definition of coefficient of eddy viscosity, the model is preferably applied to pressure The simulation of the various physical phenomenons of power graded and sticky internal layer, with finer simulation effect.

The fundamental equation of VOF methods coupling SST turbulence models mainly has：Continuity equation, the equation of momentum, SST k- ω turbulent flows Closure equation.Continuity equation, the equation of momentum are the governing equations of main fluid flowing, and SST k- ω Turbulent Equations are what is chosen Turbulent Closure equation, the specific equation of model is as follows：

Continuity equation：

The equation of momentum：

SST k- ω Turbulent Equations：

Φ₃=F₁Φ₁+(1-F₁)Φ₂

ρ is density, kg/m in formula³；T is time, s；x_i、x_jIt is coordinate components, m；u_i、u_jIt is x_i、x_jSpeed on direction Component, m/s；P is pressure, Pa；μ is molecule power viscosity, Nm/s；μ_tIt is turbulent flow viscosity；Φ₁、Φ₂、Φ₃Point Biao Shi not k- ω, k- ε and SST models, F₁It is mixed function.ν_tIt is eddy viscosity, m/s², Ω is vorticity, 1/s, F₂It is mixing letter Number, k is tubulence energy, m²/s², ω is than dissipative shock wave, 1/s；ν is kinematic viscosity, m²/s；CD_kωIt is just several for cross-diffusion； σ_ω2、α₁It is turbulence model constant, dimensionless, y is away from wall distance, m.

(3) Three-dimensional Turbulent Flow model boundary condition

1) inlet boundary condition：Actual conditions according to different storm surge disaster scenes determine disaster tidal prism size, enter One step analytical calculation storm tide flood inlet velocity is distributed.Due to being joined directly together with air at import, constant pressure boundary is set to, Relative atmospheric pressure is 0.

2) export boundary condition：Each velocity component and k and ω are taken as second kind boundary condition, i.e.,φ takes u, V, w, k, ω (u, v, w are respectively the velocity component on x, y, z direction).Outlet is joined directly together with air, is set to relatively large air pressure It is zero constant pressure boundary.

3) wall boundary condition：Wall use without sliding, isothermal wall, normal pressure for zero condition, turbulence model is near The wall boundary condition of tubulence energy k equations is zero in wall design conditions, the wall boundary condition of ω equation^[2]For ω=60 ν/ [β₁(Δy₁)²], wherein, ν is kinematic viscosity, β₁It is turbulivity, Δ y₁It is distance of the ground floor mesh point to wall on wall.

4) underlying surface border：Underlying surface border considers its frictional resistance effect to current, is processed using equivalent roughness method. Roughness is the coefficient of colligation for characterizing the various factors that border surface influences on resistance to water-flow, is also to weigh flow energy loss size A characteristic quantity.Because different boundary surface influences different to water movement, therefore its roughness value is different.

(4) three-dimensional risk map is drawn

Risk map is the embodiment directly perceived of disaster distribution, and availability risk figure is generally the expression directly perceived of disaster Two dimensional Distribution, three-dimensional The drafting of risk map is increasingly becoming research main flow, but rendering technique is still immature.Herein for storm tide flood inundation on tracks three-dimensional wind The drafting of dangerous figure, proposes on the basis of dimensional topography, introduces data field model^[17]Three-dimensional information is carried out to the condition of a disaster integrated risk Diffusion and cluster, analyze the distributed in three dimensions rule of storm tide Flood Disaster Loss, draw storm tide flood damage three-dimensional risk map, realize The displaying directly perceived of calamity source.

1) foundation of dimensional topography

Using NURBS methods formation zone dimensional topography surface.First, row interpolation is entered based on the terrain data information extracted Calculate, set up the control point data set of curved surface；Secondly, calculated by NURBS and realize whole survey region with boolean operation computing Terrain profile feature.

2) integrated risk is calculated

The calculating of integrated risk includes following four step：(1) region is obtained by storm tide flood Three-dimensional simulation Each the condition of a disaster information, such as the area flooding depth of water, flow velocity, flood arrival time；(2) it is with grid by the condition of a disaster data preparation of acquisition It is the data structure of basic research unit；(3) power of landform risk factors and each the condition of a disaster factor is calculated using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) Weight coefficient；(4) landform risk factors are obtained into integrated risk value by the weighted calculation with the condition of a disaster data.

3) application of data field model

One group of data object is regarded as the entirety that is mutually related by data fields, can by the influence function between data, By data space map to data fields space, expressed often through equipotential lines (face).Therefore, the storm for having calculated that Integrated risk data are mapped to data space by damp flood damage integrated risk value using data field model, are analyzed diffusion, Calamity source three-dimensional equipotential surface is formed, and is overlapped with area three-dimensional landform, so as to realize the drafting of three-dimensional flood risk mapping.

103：The big flood of multi-mode multiple target is taken refuge the structure of optimal route selection model.

The formulation of emergency-sheltering scheme mainly includes take refuge pattern, Dispersal Point and refuge, optimization aim, derivation algorithm Determination, detailed process is as shown in Figure 4.

(1) determination of pattern of taking refuge

For storm surge disaster emergency-sheltering system using " point-line-face " combination by the way of, based on storm tide flood three Dimension value is calculated, and devastated is resolved into some units, and be abstracted into Dispersal Point, while by the road network in survey region Line is abstracted into, service range of taking refuge is abstracted into face, the flood control that three collectively forms " point-line-face " is taken refuge network.Evacuating personnel side Face, in order to make full use of area road net, improves evacuation efficiency, is evacuated on foot by the way of vehicle dispersal is combined using personnel Carry out emergency-sheltering.

(2) determination of Dispersal Point

According to analysis^[18], when depth of the water submerging is more than 0.5m, flow velocity is reached when to a certain degree, and personnel are difficult to survive wherein. Therefore, the region of the storm tide flood inundation on tracks depth of water more than 0.5m is chosen as region is withdrawn, and further abstract is Dispersal Point, and root Determine that Dispersal Point withdraws order according to flood inundation on tracks degree.

(3) determination of refuge

1) the first selection of refuge --- refuge typically should be according to the security in place, accessibility, validity choosing Select away from flooded area, physical features is of a relatively high, place anti-flood capacity is strong, it is ensured that do not attacked by flood, and near arterial traffic, Place with certain spatial content and basic living facility.Accordingly, the conduct such as selection park, school, big sport place The refuge of storm tide flood damage.

2) optimum choice of refuge --- in the refuge of initial option, not all refuge is all Can be used to be taken refuge into administrative staff, due to being influenceed by traffic, refuge capacity etc., refuge is generally required into traveling One-step optimization is selected, so that the system of taking refuge reaches optimal service state.In the optimum choice of refuge, away from extraction point away from It is topmost concern factor from, security, with a distance from medical institutions.Accordingly, set up away from extraction point recently, security most High, the multiple target refuge optimum choice optimal mathematical model nearest away from medical institutions, and weight coefficient is utilized by multiple target It is converted into single goal as follows：

Min f=ω₁f₁+ω₂f₂+ω₃f₃

In formula, ω₁+ω₂+ω₃=1, respectively three weight coefficients of object function；It is away from evacuation The nearest object function of point；It is security highest goal function；Be away from medical institutions most Close-target function；N is refuge quantity；I represents refuge sequence number；x_i=1 or 0, i-th refuge quilt is represented respectively Choose or be not selected and do emergency-sheltering area；l_i、s_i、d_iRepresent respectively distance of i-th refuge away from Dispersal Point, degree of safety, Away from the distance of medical institutions.

(4) Optimized model of evacuation route

The optimization of evacuation route carries out model construction from two angles of policymaker and evacuee.For policymaker Speech, mainly evacuating target is：Evacuation total time is most short, evacuates grid utilization rate maximum, evacuates network space-time conflict minimum；For Evacuate for individuality, main target of evacuating is：Evacuation time is most short, evacuates shortest path, and route risk is minimum, translational speed Most fast, route space-time crowding is minimum, comfort level and acceptance level highest.Therefore, based on above-mentioned target, take into full account thin Policymaker and evacuee's system construction dual layer resist that the time of dissipating, mixture of networks utilization rate, space-time conflict, path distance are formed Model.

From policymaker's angle and evacuee's angle, rushed with most short evacuation time, maximum network utilization rate, minimum space-time Prominent, beeline sets up bi-level optimal model for target.Wherein, policymaker's orientation optimization model (upper strata Optimized model) is with most short Evacuation time, maximum network utilization rate, the conflict of minimum space-time are object function, and (lower floor optimizes mould to evacuee's orientation optimization model Type) with most short evacuation time, beeline be object function.Bi-level optimal model is as follows：

Policymaker's orientation optimization model (upper strata Optimized model)：

min Z₁=λ₁z₁+λ₂z₂+λ₃z₃

Policymaker's orientation optimization model (lower floor's Optimized model)：

In formula, λ₁+λ₂+λ₃=1,It is weight coefficient, z₁、z₂、z₃、z₄Most short evacuation time, most is represented respectively Big network utilization (minimal network sky limit), minimum space-time conflict and beeline object function.

(5) potential field method improves the optimization calculating of ant group algorithm

Potential field method can strengthen the search capability of algorithm by improving the heuristic information of ant group algorithm, therefore, using artificial gesture The field improved ant group algorithm of method is solved to emergency-sheltering Mathematical Modeling.With reference to Artificial Potential Field Method^[19]Thought, extraction point is made It is repulsion point, evacuates place as gravitation point, evacuation object is in by extraction point and the virtual Artificial Potential Field for a little being formed of taking refuge Repulsion and graviational interaction are subject to respectively, and path search is carried out according to certain rule under the joint effect of two active forces.

Improvement of the potential field method to ant group algorithm is mainly reflected on heuristic information, and original single heuristic information is improved to Compound heuristic information, the compound heuristic information includes two parts：A part is to combine potential field method thought, and ant is subject in environment Potential field make a concerted effort (Dispersal Point to evacuate object repulsion effect and refuge to evacuating the conjunction that is formed of graviational interaction of object Power), formation makes ant be intended to the heuristic information walked along resultant direction；Another part is the distance for having ant away from target location (or right of way) is provided, therefore construction heuristic information is as follows:

η=η₁·η₂

η₂=1/d²

In formula, η is the heuristic information after improving, η₁It is the heuristic information under potential field force action, η₂It is away from target location The heuristic information that right of way is provided, F_tTo evacuate suffered by object with joint efforts, path direction and the angle made a concerted effort are selected carried out by θ, d is evacuation Distance (or right of way) of the person away from target location.

By after improvement heuristic information add ant group algorithm in, by state transition probability formula and Pheromone update formula Optimal solution is scanned for calculate.Because ant group algorithm employs distributed parallel computer system in itself, with stronger robust Property, in addition improvement of the potential field method to heuristic function enhances the search performance of algorithm, is difficult to be absorbed in locally optimal solution, makes search Result is more credible, realizes optimal path and solves the improvement of intelligent algorithm and perfect.Bibliography：

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[3]RafaelJennifer L.Irish.Simulation of storm-induced barrier island morphodynamics andflooding[J].Coastal Engineering,2008,55: 1089-1101.

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[8] the compound Scene Simulation of the bright military coastal Typhoon Storm Surge Over disasters of of leaf and emergency-sheltering research-in Shanghai [D] East China Normal University, 2011.

[9] risk assessment of Zhou Yafei Typhoon Storm Surge Overs and emergent traffic evacuation research [D] Nankai University, 2012.

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It will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that accompanying drawing is a schematic diagram for preferred embodiment, the embodiments of the present invention Sequence number is for illustration only, and the quality of embodiment is not represented.

The foregoing is only presently preferred embodiments of the present invention, be not intended to limit the invention, it is all it is of the invention spirit and Within principle, any modification, equivalent substitution and improvements made etc. should be included within the scope of the present invention.

Claims (2)

1. it is a kind of improve storm surge disaster risk profile precision method, it is characterised in that the described method comprises the following steps：

Storm surge disaster scene is built based on condition analysis method；Propose storm surge disaster Three-dimensional Numerical Simulation Method；

The big flood for building multi-mode multiple target is taken refuge optimal route selection model；Wherein,

The proposition storm surge disaster Three-dimensional Numerical Simulation Method is specially：

1) three-dimensional grid model of region landform is set up；

2) the SST k- ω advance of freshet Three-dimensional Turbulent Flow models of coupling VOF methods are set up；

3) based on Three-dimensional simulation result drawing three-dimensional risk map；

The boundary condition of the Three-dimensional Turbulent Flow model is specially：

1) inlet boundary condition：Relative atmospheric pressure is 0 at import；

2) export boundary condition：Each velocity component and k and ω are taken as second kind boundary condition, i.e.,φ takes u, v, w, k, ω, the velocity component that u, v, w are respectively on x, y, z direction exports the constant pressure boundary that relatively large air pressure is zero；K is tubulence energy, ω It is to compare dissipative shock wave；

3) wall boundary condition：Wall use without sliding, isothermal wall, normal pressure for zero condition, turbulence model near wall The wall boundary condition of tubulence energy k equations is zero in design conditions, and the wall boundary condition of ω equation is ω=60v/ [β₁(Δ y₁)²], wherein, v is kinematic viscosity, β₁It is turbulivity, Δ y₁It is distance of the ground floor mesh point to wall on wall；

4) underlying surface border：Underlying surface border is processed using equivalent roughness method, and roughness is hindered current to characterize border surface The coefficient of colligation of the various factors of power influence.

2. it is according to claim 1 it is a kind of improve storm surge disaster risk profile precision method, it is characterised in that it is described Advance of freshet Three-dimensional Turbulent Flow model is specially：

Continuity equation：

$\frac{\∂\mathrm{\ρ}}{\∂t}+\frac{\∂{\mathrm{\ρu}}_i}{\∂x_i}=0$

The equation of momentum：

$\frac{\∂\left({\mathrm{\ρu}}_i\right)}{\∂t}+\frac{\∂\left({\mathrm{\ρu}}_i{u}_j\right)}{\∂x_j}=-\frac{\∂P}{\∂x_i}+\frac{\∂}{\∂x_j}\[(\mathrm{\μ}+{\mathrm{\μ}}_t)\left(\frac{\∂u_i}{\∂x_j}+\frac{\∂u_j}{\∂x_i}\right)\]$

SST k- ω Turbulent Equations：

Φ₃=F₁Φ₁+(1-F₁)Φ₂

$v_t=\frac{{\mathrm{\α}}_{1}k}{max({\mathrm{\α}}_1\mathrm{\ω};{\mathrm{\ΩF}}_2)}$

$F_1=\tanh \left({\arg }_1^4\right)$

${\arg }_1=\min \[\max \[2\frac{\sqrt{k}}{0.09\mathrm{\ω}y};\frac{500v}{y^2\mathrm{\ω}}\];\frac{4{\mathrm{\ρ\σ}}_{\mathrm{\ω}2}k}{{\mathrm{CD}}_{k\mathrm{\ω}}{y}^2}\]$

${\mathrm{CD}}_{k\mathrm{\ω}}=max\[2{\mathrm{\ρ\σ}}_{\mathrm{\ω}2}\frac{1}{\mathrm{\ω}}\frac{\∂k}{\∂x_j}\frac{\∂\mathrm{\ω}}{\∂x_j};{10}^{-20}\]$

$F_2=\tanh \left({\arg }_2^2\right)$

${\arg }_2=max\[2\frac{\sqrt{k}}{0.09\mathrm{\ω}y};\frac{500v}{y^2\mathrm{\ω}}\]$

ρ is density in formula；T is the time；x_i、x_jIt is coordinate components；u_i、u_jIt is x_i、x_jVelocity component on direction；P is pressure；μ It is molecule power viscosity；μ_tIt is turbulent flow viscosity；Φ₁、Φ₂、Φ₃K- ω, k- ε and SST models, F are represented respectively₁It is mixed Close function；v_tIt is eddy viscosity, Ω is vorticity, F₂It is mixed function, k is tubulence energy, and ω is to compare dissipative shock wave；V is kinematic viscosity； CD_kωIt is just several for cross-diffusion；σ_ω2、α₁It is turbulence model constant, y is away from wall distance.