CN103914739A - Method for planning reasonable inventory capacity of petrifaction base - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention relates to a method for planning the reasonable inventory capacity of a petrifaction base. The method includes the steps that based on risks, typical pool fire disaster, explosion and poison gas diffusion accidents in the petrifaction base are selected, the occurrence probabilities of the different accidents are integrated to provide the concept of risk equivalent weights to simulate spatial distribution of the inventory risks on the petrifaction base, a petrifaction base safe inventory capacity model based on the risks is built, different harm models are wholly processed, the different accidents are associated in a harm equivalent weight mode, overlaying of the risks of inventory hazardous objects to points in the petrifaction base is achieved, dead regions are marked out, with potential life losses as indexes, a safe inventory capacity value of the petrifaction base is obtained in cooperation with the population density and an area population number, and under the condition that an industrial structure of the petrifaction base is not changed, enlarging planning is carried out on the inventory capacity of the petrifaction base. The safety level of the petrifaction base is scientifically and effectively improved, blind enlarging of the petrifaction base is avoided, and the safety maintenance cost for the petrifaction base is saved.

Description

The planing method of a kind of petrochemical industry base rational inventory capacity

Technical field

The present invention relates to petrochemical industry, specifically refer to the planing method of a kind of petrochemical industry base rational inventory capacity.

Background technology

Petrochemical complex has occupied very important status in petroleum industry, its security level directly reflects petroleum industry security status, lot of accident shows, petrochemical industry base inventory limitation is directly connected to the order of severity of damage sequence, and suitable safety inventory capacity is the basic guarantee to the security of petrochemical industry base.The safety inventory capacity in base refers at the base maximum inventory that can accept under individual risk and social risk condition, its value is subject to affect many factors such as plane figure, dangerous material kind, personnel psychology feature, has the features such as dynamic, relativity and objectivity.If blindness without basis expands the inventory limitation in petrochemical industry base, the industrial structure in destructible base on the one hand, cause significant impact to producing, also greatly increased on the other hand the infrastructure fund input in petrochemical industry base, waste a large amount of human and material resources, therefore, the petrochemical industry base safety inventory capacity research based on risk seems particularly important, can not only avoid the amplification to safety inventory capacity of research method based on consequence, also can effectively instruct base entirety to plan and dilatation.

In recent years, there are a large amount of scholars to carry out the research of chemical industrial park safety inventory capacity, but the research of petrochemical industry base safety inventory capacity still rests on the qualitative examination stage mostly, the shortage of research data makes accident probability statistics comparatively rough, subjective, engineering using value is not high, and cause does not have enough scientific basis reliably in the time improving petrochemical industry base safety inventory capacity.Carrying out and going deep into along with research, obtain gradually the progress of more practicality, for example, " the safety program research based on chemical industrial park overall risk component analysis " of within 2009, in the 6th interim state safety scientology report, publishing proposes and has defined garden danger peace and compare maximum critical point, by its maximum acceptable risk amount in reflection garden, and then definite garden safety inventory capacity; " the chemical industrial park safety stock Study on Evaluation Model based on risk " that Chinese Professional safety and Health association publishes in Annual Conference collection of thesis for 2011 from the angular defining of risk chemical industrial park safety inventory capacity key concept, and above-mentioned which kind of research mode no matter, the safety inventory capacity in evaluation petrochemical industry base that can be quantitative, for the safety inventory capacity in the petrochemical industry base of making rational planning for provides reliable scientific basis.

Summary of the invention

Technical matters to be solved by this invention is the present situation for prior art, and the planing method of a kind of petrochemical industry base rational inventory capacity is provided, and the method can scientific and effective lifting base security level also be saved the security maintenance cost in base to greatest extent.

The present invention solves the problems of the technologies described above adopted technical scheme: the planing method of a kind of petrochemical industry base rational inventory capacity, is characterized in that comprising the following steps:

(1) build injury model, determine the injury equivalent of arbitrfary point, base, selected point burning things which may cause a fire disaster radiation model, many Paderewskis of Sa positive pressure of shock wave peak value model and Gaussian plume model are as injury model respectively, in view of using potential human loss as risk characterization, the main hazard accident of petrochemical industry base stock's dangerous material is pond fire, blast and poison gas diffusion, it is different that it causes heat radiation, blast impulse and the concentration of toxic gases of base each point to distribute, therefore selected above-mentioned corresponding injury model;

Wherein, described incendiary source radiation model is:

I (x, y)=Q _ct _c/ (4pL ²(x, y)), in this formula, I (x, y) is base (x, y) some received radiation thermoflux, KW/m ²; Q _cfor total radiant flux, KW; t _cfor transmissibility factor, get 1.0; L (x, y) is the distance of base (x, y) point to radiation heat pond, m;

Described many Paderewskis of Sa positive pressure of shock wave peak value model is:

$P(x,y)=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}1.07/Z^3(x,y)& Z(x,y)\&le;1\\ 0.076/Z(x,y)+0.255/Z^2(x,y)+0.65/Z^3(x,y)& 1<Z(x,y)\&le;15\end{array}\right.,$ In this formula, P (x, y) is base (x, y) some shock wave peak pressure value, MPa; Z (x, y) is the scaled distance of base (x, y) point to explosion center, m/kg ^1/3;

Described Gaussian plume model is:

$C(x,y)=Q/\left(2\mathrm{\&pi;\&mu;}{\mathrm{\&sigma;}}_y{\mathrm{\&sigma;}}_z\right)\exp (-0.5y^2/{\mathrm{\&sigma;}}_y^2)\&CenterDot;[\exp (-0.5{(1.7-H)}^2/{\mathrm{\&sigma;}}_z^2)+\exp (-0.5{(1.7+H)}^2/{\mathrm{\&sigma;}}_z^2)]$

, in this formula, C (x, y) is base (x, y) concentration of toxic gases, kg/m ³; Q is source strength, kg/s; μ is mean wind speed, m/s; σ _yfor Horizontal Diffusion Parameter, m; σ _zfor vertical diffusion parameter, m; H is source of leaks significant height, m;

The injury equivalent of base (x, y) point is:

wherein P _s, C _s, I _smiddle is respectively that form of injury is the injury criteria of explosion accident, poison gas diffusion and pond fire failure;

(2) determine the Risk Equivalent of arbitrfary point, petrochemical industry base,

wherein RE (x, y) is the Risk Equivalent total value of arbitrfary point, base; F is major hazard source accident probability; CE _k(x, y) for dangerous matter sources have an accident k to base (x, y) point injury equivalent; N is accident pattern sum; As can be seen from the above equation, Risk Equivalent has additivity, and increases with the increase of base inventory limitation, by can draw base safety inventory capacity to the research of the risk upper limit; In addition, because safety of China infosystem is not perfect, stock's dangerous matter sources accident probability statistical data scarcity, accidents classification statistics reliability is low, the independent storage of different dangerous material and its major accident type are relatively single, to the same industry for many years representative accident add up and find that stock's dangerous material all kinds of accident probabilities are all tending towards major hazard source contingency occurrence probability, therefore, f gets major hazard source accident probability;

(3) determining of safety inventory capacity: first determine death domain U={ (x, y) RE (x, y)>=f} according to the Risk Equivalent total value RE (x, y) of arbitrfary point, above-mentioned base, then according to the region area S in petrochemical industry base _uand de facto population density p _udetermine the year population potential loss R in base _av, count n according to region floating population and determine a year population potential loss upper limit R _{the av upper limit}, and R _{the av upper limit}>=R _av, wherein,

R _av=S _uρ _u, R _{the av upper limit}=10 ^-4n,

Meeting under above-mentioned condition the average year population potential loss R that equivalent dangerous material per ton cause _{av is equal}>=R _av/ M, wherein, M is on-hand inventory capacity;

Described safety inventory capacity is M _max=10 ^-4n/R _{av is equal};

(4) do not changing under the condition of the base industrial structure, according to above-mentioned safety inventory capability value M _maxgarden, base is carried out to dilatation construction.

As preferably, the source of leaks significant height H in described Gaussian plume model gets 1.7m.

Compared with prior art, the invention has the advantages that: from the angle based on risk, choose typical pond fire in petrochemical industry base, blast and poison gas diffusion accident, the probability of happening of comprehensive different accidents proposes the concept of Risk Equivalent to simulate the space distribution of inventory risk in base, set up the petrochemical industry base safety inventory capacity model based on risk, difference injury model is planned as a whole to process, different accidents are associated with the form of injury equivalent, realize the risk stack of stock's dangerous material to each point in base, and mark death domain, take potential human loss as index, obtain petrochemical industry base safety inventory capability value in conjunction with the density of population and regional population's number, in the situation that the base industrial structure is constant, base inventory limitation is expanded to planning, the not only scientific and effective security level that promotes petrochemical industry base, also avoided the blindness in petrochemical industry base to expand, save the security maintenance cost in base.

Accompanying drawing explanation

Fig. 1 is the space distribution situation schematic diagram of each point Risk Equivalent in base in the embodiment of the present invention;

Fig. 2 is with the death domain schematic diagram after grid command process in the embodiment of the present invention.

Embodiment

Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, embodiment is described in further detail the present invention.

The planing method of the petrochemical industry base rational inventory capacity of the present embodiment comprises the following steps:

(1) build injury model, determine the injury equivalent of arbitrfary point, base, selected point burning things which may cause a fire disaster radiation model, many Paderewskis of Sa positive pressure of shock wave peak value model and Gaussian plume model are as injury model respectively, in view of using potential human loss as risk characterization, the main hazard accident of petrochemical industry base stock's dangerous material is pond fire, blast and poison gas diffusion, it is different that it causes heat radiation, blast impulse and the concentration of toxic gases of base each point to distribute, therefore selected above-mentioned corresponding injury model;

Wherein, incendiary source radiation model is:

I (x, y)=Q _ct _c/ (4pL ²(x, y)), in this formula, I (x, y) is base (x, y) some received radiation thermoflux, KW/m ²; Q _cfor total radiant flux, KW; t _cfor transmissibility factor, get 1.0; L (x, y) is the distance of base (x, y) point to radiation heat pond, m;

Many Paderewskis of Sa positive pressure of shock wave peak value model is:

$P(x,y)=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}1.07/Z^3(x,y)& Z(x,y)\&le;1\\ 0.076/Z(x,y)+0.255/Z^2(x,y)+0.65/Z^3(x,y)& 1<Z(x,y)\&le;15\end{array}\right.,$ In this formula, P (x, y) is base (x, y) some shock wave peak pressure value, MPa; Z (x, y) is the scaled distance of base (x, y) point to explosion center, m/kg ^1/3;

Gaussian plume model is:

$C(x,y)=Q/\left(2\mathrm{\&pi;\&mu;}{\mathrm{\&sigma;}}_y{\mathrm{\&sigma;}}_z\right)\exp (-0.5y^2/{\mathrm{\&sigma;}}_y^2)\&CenterDot;[\exp (-0.5{(1.7-H)}^2/{\mathrm{\&sigma;}}_z^2)+\exp (-0.5{(1.7+H)}^2/{\mathrm{\&sigma;}}_z^2)]$

, in this formula, C (x, y) is base (x, y) concentration of toxic gases, kg/m ³; Q is source strength, kg/s; μ is mean wind speed, m/s; σ _yfor Horizontal Diffusion Parameter, m; σ _zfor vertical diffusion parameter, m; H is source of leaks significant height, gets people's average height 1.7m;

The injury equivalent of base (x, y) point is:

wherein P _s, C _s, I _smiddle is respectively that form of injury is the injury criteria of explosion accident, poison gas diffusion and pond fire failure;

(2) determine the Risk Equivalent of arbitrfary point, petrochemical industry base,

wherein RE (x, y) is the Risk Equivalent total value of arbitrfary point, base; F is major hazard source accident probability; CE _k(x, y) for dangerous matter sources have an accident k to base (x, y) point injury equivalent; N is accident pattern sum; As can be seen from the above equation, Risk Equivalent has additivity, and increases with the increase of base inventory limitation, by can draw base safety inventory capacity to the research of the risk upper limit; In addition, because safety of China infosystem is not perfect, stock's dangerous matter sources accident probability statistical data scarcity, accidents classification statistics reliability is low, the independent storage of different dangerous material and its major accident type are relatively single, to the same industry for many years representative accident add up and find that stock's dangerous material all kinds of accident probabilities are all tending towards major hazard source contingency occurrence probability, therefore, f gets major hazard source accident probability;

(3) determining of safety inventory capacity: first determine death domain U={ (x, y) RE (x, y)>=f} according to the Risk Equivalent total value RE (x, y) of arbitrfary point, above-mentioned base, then according to the region area S in petrochemical industry base _uand de facto population density p _udetermine the year population potential loss R in base _av, count n according to region floating population and determine a year population potential loss upper limit R _{the av upper limit}, and R _{the av upper limit}>=R _av, wherein,

R _av=S _uρ U, R _{the av upper limit}=10 ^-4n,

Meeting under above-mentioned condition the average year population potential loss R that equivalent dangerous material per ton cause _{av is equal}>=R _av/ M, wherein, M is on-hand inventory capacity;

Safety inventory capacity is M _max=10 ^-4n/R _{av is equal};

(4) do not changing under the condition of the base industrial structure, according to above-mentioned safety inventory capability value M _maxgarden, base is carried out to dilatation construction.

Take certain well-known petrochemical industry base as example, adopt the present embodiment petrochemical industry base rational inventory capacity planing method to its plan, dilatation construction.This base is mainly made up of three subordinate branch officies of large group, stores in a warehouse as mainstay industry take crude oil, product oil, 2.8 square kilometres of total floor areas; According to statistics, totally 800 ten thousand tons of base dangerous material total amounts, immediate plan second phase extension project, stock's dangerous material are mainly take crude oil as main, and product oil accounts for total reserves 8% left and right, and the industrial chemicals stocks such as liquefied ammonia, methyl alcohol are less.Set up plane right-angle coordinate take petrochemical industry base as boundary, determine tank body coordinate with reference to base plane design drawing and satellite map, with coordinate (x, y) be independent variable, choose corresponding injury model according to each storage tank dangerous material kind, calculate the injury equivalent of each tank body to base each point, choosing major hazard source has people to get involved contingency occurrence probability 1.6401 × 10 ^-7calculate base each point Risk Equivalent, Fig. 1 is the space distribution situation of base each point Risk Equivalent, can find out in region, there are three place's risk districts more concentratedly, meet three company of large group characteristic distributions, the Risk Equivalent value of loop A place plane is death domain Risk Equivalent critical value, itself and Risk Equivalent region that spatial distribution map is handed over are actual death domain, and Fig. 2 is with the death domain figure after grid command process, death domain area S _u=98 ten thousand square metres, considering under the prerequisite of landform and island feature, according to practic density of population ρ U=1 × 10, death domain ^-6and region floating population counts n=10000, meet R _{the av upper limit}>=R _av, base safety inventory capacity M _maxbe about 816.3 ten thousand tons, do not changing under the condition of the base industrial structure, according to this safety inventory capability value M _maxgarden, base is carried out to dilatation construction, to have promoted petrochemical industry base security level; According to safety inventory capacity M _maxgarden, base is carried out to rational dilatation construction, rather than without basis to base carry out blindness expand, effectively saved the security maintenance cost in base.

Claims (2)

1. a planing method for petrochemical industry base rational inventory capacity, is characterized in that comprising the following steps:

(1) build injury model, determine the injury equivalent of arbitrfary point, base, selected point burning things which may cause a fire disaster radiation model, many Paderewskis of Sa positive pressure of shock wave peak value model and Gaussian plume model are as injury model respectively, and wherein, described incendiary source radiation model is:

I (x, y)=Q _ct _c/ (4pL ²(x, y)), in this formula, I (x, y) is base (x, y) some received radiation thermoflux, KW/m ²; Q _cfor total radiant flux, KW; t _cfor transmissibility factor, get 1.0; L (x, y) is the distance of base (x, y) point to radiation heat pond, m;

Described many Paderewskis of Sa positive pressure of shock wave peak value model is:

$P(x,y)=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}1.07/Z^3(x,y)& Z(x,y)\&le;1\\ 0.076/Z(x,y)+0.255/Z^2(x,y)+0.65/Z^3(x,y)& 1<Z(x,y)\&le;15\end{array}\right.,$ In this formula, P (x, y) is base (x, y) some shock wave peak pressure value, MPa; Z (x, y) is the scaled distance of base (x, y) point to explosion center, m/kg ^1/3;

Described Gaussian plume model is:

$C(x,y)=Q/\left(2\mathrm{\&pi;\&mu;}{\mathrm{\&sigma;}}_y{\mathrm{\&sigma;}}_z\right)\exp (-0.5y^2/{\mathrm{\&sigma;}}_y^2)\&CenterDot;[\exp (-0.5{(1.7-H)}^2/{\mathrm{\&sigma;}}_z^2)+\exp (-0.5{(1.7+H)}^2/{\mathrm{\&sigma;}}_z^2)]$ , in this formula, C (x, y) is base (x, y) concentration of toxic gases, kg/m ³; Q is source strength, kg/s; μ is mean wind speed, m/s; σ _yfor Horizontal Diffusion Parameter, m; σ _zfor vertical diffusion parameter, m; H is source of leaks significant height, m;

The injury equivalent of base (x, y) point is:

wherein P _s, C _s, I _smiddlely represent that respectively form of injury is the injury criteria of the diffusion of explosion accident, poison gas and pond fire failure;

(2) determine the Risk Equivalent of arbitrfary point, petrochemical industry base,

wherein RE (x, y) is the Risk Equivalent total value of arbitrfary point, base; F is major hazard source accident probability; CE _k(x, y) for dangerous matter sources have an accident k to base (x, y) point injury equivalent; N is accident pattern sum;

(3) determining of safety inventory capacity: first determine death domain U={ (x, y) according to the Risk Equivalent total value RE (x, y) of arbitrfary point, above-mentioned base | RE (x, y)>=f}, then according to the region area S in petrochemical industry base _uand de facto population density p _udetermine the year population potential loss R in base _av, count n according to region floating population and determine a year population potential loss upper limit R _{the av upper limit}, and R _{the av upper limit}>=R _av, wherein,

R _av=S _uρ _u, R _{the av upper limit}=10 ^-4n,

Meeting under above-mentioned condition the average year population potential loss R that equivalent dangerous material per ton cause _{av is equal}>=R _av/ M, wherein, M is on-hand inventory capacity;

Described safety inventory capacity is M _max=10 ^-4n/R _{av is equal};

(4) do not changing under the condition of the base industrial structure, according to above-mentioned safety inventory capability value M _maxgarden, base is carried out to dilatation construction.

2. the planing method of petrochemical industry according to claim 1 base rational inventory capacity, is characterized in that: the source of leaks significant height H in described Gaussian plume model gets 1.7m.