CN103793619A - Novel method for simulating spatial spread of infectious diseases - Google Patents

Novel method for simulating spatial spread of infectious diseases Download PDF

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CN103793619A
CN103793619A CN201410070355.8A CN201410070355A CN103793619A CN 103793619 A CN103793619 A CN 103793619A CN 201410070355 A CN201410070355 A CN 201410070355A CN 103793619 A CN103793619 A CN 103793619A
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cellular
infectious disease
infected
center
space diffusion
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CN103793619B (en
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杨书
杨晓虹
陈卫中
陈园园
罗静
王璐
邓丹
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Chengdu Medical College
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Abstract

The invention discloses a novel method for simulating spatial spread of infectious diseases. A geographic information system platform and a cellular automaton are combined to simulate a spatial spread model of the infectious diseases, and the novel method is suitable for multiple infectious diseases including HIV/AIDS viruses and can provide a reference for treating and preventing the infectious diseases.

Description

A kind of Novel infectious disease space diffusion simulation method
Technical field
The present invention relates to medical domain, relate in particular to a kind of Novel infectious disease space diffusion simulation method.
Background technology
Cellular automaton, as a kind of modeling method, utilizes simple evolution rule, the simulation that complication system is carried out, and its application almost relates to society and natural science applied every field.Cellular automaton be a kind of on time and space discrete power systems all.In a space, mark off regular grid, cellular is dispersed in these grid, and can get limited discrete state, and cellular simply interacts with contiguous cellular by the local rule of prior setting, after each time step, the state of cellular can change.The process that this all cellular state change has just formed the dynamic evolution of the whole decorum.Because the evolution rule of cellular automaton itself is very simple, but but can react complicated form, so through being usually used in the modeling and simulation of complication system.
Acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS), formal name used at school is " aids ", its English name is Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome, is abbreviated as AIDS, is a kind of disease of the human immunity system of defense aspect being caused by retrovirus.The appearance of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) is the AIDS virus being present in human body fluid owing to having infectd, i.e. " human immunity power defective virus ", and its English full name is Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and causing.Once after infecing AIDS virus, just can make the immunologic function of human body be damaged, many types disease is lost to resistibility, finally cause death.Now countries in the world also do not develop treatment acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) specific drug or can for prevention effective vaccine, the difficulty of controlling AIDS Epidemic is very large, therefore acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) be considered at present continue plague occur after, one of the most serious infectious disease of facing mankind, its case fatality rate is 100%.
Since 1981 find Patient With Aids case in the world, in 31 years, HIV/AIDS number of the infected constantly increases, and speedup is obviously accelerated, and propagation regions constantly expands.As far back as the fifties in last century, just there are African central and west regions in HIV virus, the 1970s and 1980s Africa some develop faster and be identified the popular of HIV virus in city [1].In August, 2008, the U.S. HIV incidence of disease monitoring system estimation newly-increased 56300 routine HIV cases of infection of the U.S. in 2006, the HIV incidence of disease is 0.228 ‰ (95% fiducial interval: 0.195～0.261) [2].2011, " whole world reply HIV/AIDS Epidemic progress report in 2011 " of being combined issue by mechanisms such as the World Health Organization (WHO) shows, by the end of the year 2010, the whole world has 3,400 ten thousand patients infected hivs, within 2010, approximately there are 2,700,000 of newly-increased HIV-positives in the whole world, compared with calendar year 2001 growth by 17% [3].
The AIDS Epidemic of China is on the rise equally.In recent years, China's acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) case report number is always with 30%～40% speed rapid growth every year on average.Find that in Chongqing City in 1985 after first case AIDS patients, HIV spreads to neighbouring area from Yunnan along main drug traffic route, is diffused into their sex partner and children from shoot up injecting drug use person.Since the mid-90 in 20th century,, due to the transaction of business blood plasma, there is HIV large-scale outbreak in some provinces of central China [4].In the same time, HIV also trafficability characteristic propagation begins to extend [5].By the end of the year 2005, the Ministry of Public Health of China estimates at 650,000 people, and to infect HIV(scope be 54～760,000 people), wherein there is the infected of 3/4ths from Yunnan, Henan, Xinjiang, Guangxi and Wu Ge province, Guangdong [6].The AIDS Epidemic of China is in overall low popular, the high popular situation in specific crowd and some areas.In all kinds of crowds, addicts (particularly injection drug user) HIV infection rate is the highest, and has obvious areal variation.Surveillance shows, the Sentinel point that HIV infection level is higher still concentrates on the provinces such as Yunnan, Xinjiang, Sichuan, Guangxi, Guizhou, Guangdong, as the drug addict HIV the positive rate of antibody detection of Lincang City of Yunnan Province, Dali prefecture, Dehong prefecture, Wenshan Prefecture and thought all exceedes 50% [7].
Current, the popular of HIV/AIDS has been not only medical problem, but is related to people's livelihood safety, harmonious stable social concern.Researchist is striving to find AIDS preventing and controlling method always, communication process and the propagating characteristic of research HIV virus among crowd.People recognize that the process of profound understanding aids transmission diffusion has great significance to the preventing and controlling of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) gradually.
Analogy method in the past all concentrates on the time dependent Conformance Assessment of propagation number, but if require the consistance of propagation number, have than the more simple and effective analogy method of cellular, can not bring into play the characteristic of cellular virtual space diffusion.
Summary of the invention
The present invention aims to provide a kind of Novel infectious disease space diffusion simulation method, is applicable to the multiple infectious disease including HIV/AIDS virus, for treatment and the prevention of infectious disease provide reference.
For achieving the above object, the present invention realizes by the following technical solutions:
The analogy method of Novel infectious disease disclosed by the invention space diffusion, comprises the following steps of carrying out successively:
Step 1, set up in appointed area the geographical information platform of specifying infectious disease: by the infected of the described appointment infectious disease at the appointed time in described appointed area according to its position, residence typing digital map;
Step 2, division unit lattice, describe described the infected's actual distribution situation: by setting step-length, described appointed area is divided into square net, each grid is cell, again all the infecteds are painted into respectively to corresponding cell according to its position, residence, calculate the quantity of the infected in each cell;
Step 3, sets up cellular: described cellular neighbours rule adopts Moore type, using described cell as center cellular, as the source of infection of propagating in diffusion process;
Step 4, arranges cellular rule: establishing a infected, to infect the parameter of other people possibility be I, S in the cellular of Ze Yige center i(t) individual patient is HIV viral communication to other people probability Q in the t moment:
Q = 1 - ( 1 - I ) S i ( t ) - - - ( 1 )
In formula (1), the span of I is 0 < I < 1.
Step 5, simulation process: in a time step, with probability Q random make a cellular state value S in neighbours around and self cellular i(t) increase by 1, be:
S i(t+1)=S i(t)+1 （2）
The cellular state value successfully not infected remains unchanged, and is:
S j(t+1)=S j(t) （3）
Step 6, simulation finishes: after k time step, in the time that all cellular state value summations reach N × R, stop simulation; N is the number of the infected in described appointed area, and R is a random entry:
R = 1 - r - 0.5 0.5 &times; &alpha; - - - ( 4 )
In formula (4), r is the random number that a value is (0,1), and α is the parameter of controlling stochastic variable size.
Preferably, described in step 2, setting step-length is 10 kms.
Preferably, in step 4, set I=0.1.
Preferably, in step 4, set I=0.05.
Preferably, in step 6, set α=0.05.
Further, in step 5, the probability that 9 neighbours' cellular Bei center cellulars including the cellular of center infect is identical.
Further, the value of described time step adopts following method to set: in a time step, the number that at every turn multipotency is infected by center cellular is a people.
The present invention can simulate the communication process of infectious disease on time and space, leading indicator using the consistance of space distribution as evaluation model fitting effect, the result obtaining like this has stronger directive significance to the formulation of Health Resource and infectious disease region property prevention and control policy.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is process flow diagram of the present invention;
Fig. 2 is the geographic distribution of cellular;
Fig. 3 is the histogram of cellular;
Fig. 4 is cellular simulation initial situation figure;
Simulated infection distribution plan when Fig. 5 is I=0.1;
Simulated infection distribution plan when Fig. 6 is I=0.05;
Fig. 7 is the part sectional drawing of Fig. 6;
Fig. 8 is and the actual infection distribution plan of Fig. 7 same geographical area.
Embodiment
In order to make object of the present invention, technical scheme and advantage clearer, below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, the present invention is further elaborated.
As shown in Figure 1, adopt an embodiment of the analogy method of Novel infectious disease disclosed by the invention space diffusion, first carry out data pre-service, to being described property of the epidemic situation analysis of C city, synchronous, the 6000 many cases the infecteds that occur successively during first place this household register the infected to 2009 end of the year that C city nineteen ninety-five is occurred according to its position, residence as digitized map of spatial information described point typing, the infected individual's sex, age, head examine the information typings in the lump such as time, occupation, circulation way, set up the GIS platform of somewhere infectious disease, then according to the infected/patient coordinate, data are carried out to described point, concrete grammar is, take 10 kms as unit, this area's geographical map is divided into 1277 cubic grids, according to the concrete geographic coordinate of HIV/AIDS the infected/patient, by in the each case Miao Ru this area geographical map in 1995～2009 years, calculate and fall into each grid case number, set up cellular rule and cellular Automation Model take each grid as cellular, obtain the geographic distribution of cellular as shown in Figure 2, Fig. 3 is the histogram of cellular, cellular neighbours adopt Moore type, there are 8 neighbours' cellulars around in center cellular, 9 cellulars of surrounding of (considering that cellular may exist inner infection) so including center cellular self are all likely infected, if 9 infected probability of cellular equate, suppose that each time step is very little, in a time step, the number that at every turn multipotency is infected by center cellular is a people.Center cellular is exactly to make neighbours around and increase by routine HIV/AIDS the infected/patient number from any one cellular in 9 interior cellulars with the probability of Q so.With cellular simulation initial situation figure as shown in Figure 4, adopting respectively I value is 0.1 and 0.05 to simulate, obtain as the analog result of Fig. 5, Fig. 6, with the geographic distribution of the cellular shown in the analog result comparison diagram 2 of Fig. 5, Fig. 6, be relatively to simulate and actual epidemic situation situation in Fig. 1, reach a conclusion, I value is more to approach actual infection conditions at 0.05 o'clock, particularly infect region occurred frequently more approaching, Fig. 7, Fig. 8 have described and have infected regional simulation occurred frequently and actual infection conditions.
Analogy method in the past all concentrates on the time dependent Conformance Assessment of propagation number, but if require the consistance of propagation number, have than the more simple and effective analogy method of cellular, can not bring into play the characteristic of cellular virtual space diffusion.This method compared with the conventional method, it is advantageous that the leading indicator using the consistance of space distribution as evaluation model fitting effect, and the result of doing is like this that the formulation of Health Resource and infectious disease region property prevention and control policy is had to stronger directive significance.
Certainly; the present invention also can have other various embodiments; in the situation that not deviating from spirit of the present invention and essence thereof; those of ordinary skill in the art can make according to the present invention various corresponding changes and distortion, but these corresponding changes and distortion all should belong to the protection domain of the appended claim of the present invention.

Claims (7)

1. an analogy method for Novel infectious disease space diffusion, is characterized in that, comprises the following steps of carrying out successively:
Step 1, set up in appointed area the geographical information platform of specifying infectious disease: by the infected of the described appointment infectious disease at the appointed time in described appointed area according to its position, residence typing digital map;
Step 2, division unit lattice, describe described the infected's actual distribution situation: by setting step-length, described appointed area is divided into square net, each grid is cell, again all the infecteds are painted into respectively to corresponding cell according to its position, residence, calculate the quantity of the infected in each cell;
Step 3, sets up cellular: described cellular neighbours rule adopts Moore type, using described cell as center cellular, as the source of infection of propagating in diffusion process;
Step 4, arranges cellular rule: establishing a infected, to infect the parameter of other people possibility be I, S in the cellular of Ze Yige center i(t) individual patient is HIV viral communication to other people probability Q in the t moment:
Q = 1 - ( 1 - I ) S i ( t ) - - - ( 1 )
In formula (1), the span of I is 0 < I < 1.
Step 5, simulation process: in a time step, with probability Q random make a cellular state value S in neighbours around and self cellular i(t) increase by 1, be:
S i(t+1)=S i(t)+1 （2）
The cellular state value successfully not infected remains unchanged, and is:
S j(t+1)=S j(t) （3）
Step 6, simulation finishes: after k time step, in the time that all cellular state value summations reach N × R, stop simulation; N is the number of the infected in described appointed area, and R is a random entry:
R = 1 - r - 0.5 0.5 &times; &alpha; - - - ( 4 )
In formula (4), r is the random number that a value is (0,1), and α is the parameter of controlling stochastic variable size.
2. Novel infectious disease according to claim 1 space diffusion simulation method, is characterized in that, described in step 2, setting step-length is 10 kms.
3. Novel infectious disease according to claim 1 space diffusion simulation method, is characterized in that, in step 4, sets I=0.1.
4. Novel infectious disease according to claim 1 space diffusion simulation method, is characterized in that, in step 4, sets I=0.05.
5. Novel infectious disease according to claim 1 space diffusion simulation method, is characterized in that, in step 6, sets α=0.05.
6. Novel infectious disease according to claim 1 space diffusion simulation method, is characterized in that, in step 5, the probability that 9 neighbours' cellular Bei center cellulars including the cellular of center infect is identical.
7. Novel infectious disease according to claim 1 space diffusion simulation method, is characterized in that, the value of described time step adopts following method to set: in a time step, the number that at every turn multipotency is infected by center cellular is a people.
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CN105893657A (en) * 2016-03-20 2016-08-24 河南理工大学 New type simulation method for spatial diffusion of infectious diseases
CN107220482A (en) * 2017-05-09 2017-09-29 清华大学 Respiratory infectious disease risk evaluating system and appraisal procedure
CN111128398A (en) * 2020-03-30 2020-05-08 广州地理研究所 Epidemic disease infected person number estimation method based on population migration big data
CN112652401A (en) * 2020-08-20 2021-04-13 同济大学 Epidemic situation prevention system based on district and county epidemic situation big data
CN113611429A (en) * 2021-05-12 2021-11-05 中国人民解放军军事科学院军事医学研究院 Infectious disease propagation deduction method and device and electronic equipment
CN113693568A (en) * 2021-10-26 2021-11-26 广州市广美电子科技有限公司 Infectious disease prevention challenge device
KR20220096706A (en) * 2020-12-31 2022-07-07 한국기술교육대학교 산학협력단 Apparatus and method of learn of simulation model based on actual infection data
CN113611429B (en) * 2021-05-12 2024-06-07 中国人民解放军军事科学院军事医学研究院 Infectious disease transmission deduction method and device and electronic equipment

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Cited By (11)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN105893657A (en) * 2016-03-20 2016-08-24 河南理工大学 New type simulation method for spatial diffusion of infectious diseases
CN107220482A (en) * 2017-05-09 2017-09-29 清华大学 Respiratory infectious disease risk evaluating system and appraisal procedure
CN107220482B (en) * 2017-05-09 2019-09-17 清华大学 Respiratory infectious disease risk evaluating system and appraisal procedure
CN111128398A (en) * 2020-03-30 2020-05-08 广州地理研究所 Epidemic disease infected person number estimation method based on population migration big data
CN111128398B (en) * 2020-03-30 2020-08-14 广州地理研究所 Epidemic disease infected person number estimation method based on population migration big data
CN112652401A (en) * 2020-08-20 2021-04-13 同济大学 Epidemic situation prevention system based on district and county epidemic situation big data
KR20220096706A (en) * 2020-12-31 2022-07-07 한국기술교육대학교 산학협력단 Apparatus and method of learn of simulation model based on actual infection data
KR102467746B1 (en) * 2020-12-31 2022-11-16 한국기술교육대학교 산학협력단 Apparatus and method of learn of simulation model based on actual infection data
CN113611429A (en) * 2021-05-12 2021-11-05 中国人民解放军军事科学院军事医学研究院 Infectious disease propagation deduction method and device and electronic equipment
CN113611429B (en) * 2021-05-12 2024-06-07 中国人民解放军军事科学院军事医学研究院 Infectious disease transmission deduction method and device and electronic equipment
CN113693568A (en) * 2021-10-26 2021-11-26 广州市广美电子科技有限公司 Infectious disease prevention challenge device

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