CN103646095B - The reliability of a kind of common cause failure based on data-driven judges system and method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The reliability of a kind of common cause failure based on data-driven judges system and method, and large-scale complicated system can comprise the fail-safe analysis of common cause failure.This system mainly includes 4 modules: data collector, acquisition common cause failure data and given system information are also supplied to other module；According to common cause failure data, analysis of common cause failure device, determines that elementary event is grouped, and it is carried out analysis of common cause failure；Fault tree models resolver, according to the fault tree models of the given system of elementary event group result amendment；Fault tree analysis device, is analyzed given fault tree models.Any type of non-well-balanced common cause failure can be analyzed by the present invention, it is possible to more accurately large-scale complicated system is carried out fail-safe analysis and monitoring.
Description
Technical field
The reliability that the present invention relates to a kind of common cause failure based on data-driven judges system and method, belong to fail-safe analysis and
Probabilistic safety analysis field.
Background technology
Fail-safe analysis at large-scale complicated system (such as nuclear power plant system, military hardware system or navigation air line)
(Reliability Analysis) and probabilistic safety analysis are when in (Probabilistic Safety Analysis, PSA), due to superfluous
The existence of remaining system, common cause failure (Common-Cause Failures, CCF) is inevitable, and frequently results in whole system
The crash rate of system greatly rises, and its importance is mathematical.Common cause failure is the one of interdependent inefficacy, it is generally acknowledged at present
It represents owing to one or more common cause cause multiple system unit to lose efficacy simultaneously, or multiple parts cannot alleviated
Situation about in succession losing efficacy in the short time.
Current common cause failure research is the most, but seldom has in these researchs and explore non-well-balanced common cause failure
, yet with design principle, manufacture processing, storage transport installation, operating maintenance, working environment etc. the poorest
Not, non-well-balanced property generally exists.In the middle of the high fail-safe analysis of precision comparison and PSA, usually require that non-well-balanced
Common cause failure (Asymmetrical Common-Cause Failure) carries out careful analyzing rather than as present conventional point
Analysis system make like that one well-balanced it is assumed that think that their crash rate is duplicate, then they are all placed on one altogether because of
Group (Common-Cause Component Group) the inside.
At present the processing method of non-well-balanced common cause failure is had three kinds: (1) the first be that U.S.'s core pipe can carry in 1998 by NRC
The modeling method gone out, but NRC does not provide corresponding Parameter Estimation Method；(2) the second is dividing of Jo proposition in 2005
Other modeling, but the ratio of its error and non-well-balanced common cause failure has relation, largely limits its degree of accuracy and answers
Use scope；(3) the third is the approximate formula method of Kang proposition in 2009, is decomposed into all title portions because of elementary event altogether one
Point and non-well-balanced part modeling respectively, and assume that each decomposition unit is well-balanced between dividing, give BPM (Basic
Parameter Model) and the Parameter Estimation Method of AFM (Alpha Factor Model) model, but approximate formula method can not
Analyze the common cause failure of different types of redundant component.And these methods are difficult to practice in the middle of reliability judgement system.
Summary of the invention
The technology of the present invention solves problem: overcome the deficiencies in the prior art, the reliability of a kind of common cause failure based on data-driven to sentence
Disconnected system and method, can preferably process the non-well-balanced common cause failure of large-scale complicated system, obtain reliability more accurately
And safety.
The technology of the present invention solution: the present invention propose multiple common cause failure concept i.e.: an elementary event is simultaneously by 2
Individual or when more than 2 common cause failures affect, this event is placed on simultaneously multiple altogether because group is (i.e. by of the same race altogether because causing inefficacy
The combination of event) in the middle of.Through the non-well-balanced common cause failure that processed because of STRUCTURE DECOMPOSITION method altogether, various routine can be used common because of
It is analyzed by failure model, and carries out corresponding Parameters Transformation, implements the following content of step:
The reliability of a kind of common cause failure based on data-driven judges system, including: data collector, analysis of common cause failure device,
Fault tree models resolver and fault tree analysis device；
Data collector: to given system, utilizes test to obtain the common cause failure data of system redundancy equipment, it is possible to use with this
Other system existing common cause failure data that system is similar；And obtain by analysis personnel according to not containing that system structure information is built
The system failure tree-model of common cause failure；Also storage elementary event reliability model, common cause failure model, analysis of common cause failure knot
Fruit and the system failure tree-model containing common cause failure；For other module；
Analysis of common cause failure device: according to common cause failure data and the system failure tree-model without common cause failure, use altogether because of structure
Decomposition method, carries out system equipment or parts, altogether because of distribution automatically and the combination of group, obtaining all of altogether because of group, and to altogether because losing
The packet situation of effect is verified and is adjusted；Select the elementary event reliability model that the parts of given system are corresponding, same common
Because the elementary event of group can only select same reliability model；Be given each altogether because of the reliability model of group selection；According to common because of
Fail data, use altogether because of STRUCTURE DECOMPOSITION method automatically determine the elementary event of non-well-balanced common cause failure its relate to altogether because of in group
Ratio, after verifying and adjusting, then determine each altogether because of the common cause failure model organized, in finally calculating each group, elementary event is
Whole failure probability, and all results are stored data collector；
Fault tree models resolver: obtain analysis of common cause failure result from data collector, uses altogether because STRUCTURE DECOMPOSITION method is to given
The fault tree models not considering common cause failure of system resolves and revises, and constructs a fault tree that can reflect common cause failure
Model；Result stores data collector；
Fault tree analysis device: obtain the fault tree models that can reflect common cause failure from data collector, it is analyzed, obtains
The fail-safe analysis result of given system；The common cause failure characteristic of the given system of this result reflection；And according to real-time system monitoring
Signal, calculates the reliability in time result of system, and described reliability result is stored data collector.
Described it is accomplished by because of STRUCTURE DECOMPOSITION method altogether
(1) when elementary event A representing certain equipment or parts is affected by n common cause failure simultaneously, root
According to test data, this elementary event is resolved into (n+1) individual elementary event (A0, A1, A2, A3..., An), wherein
A0It is the representative that individually occurs of A, and A1, A2, A3..., AnIt is subordinated to n respectively altogether because of group；And ignore A1, A2,
A3..., AnIndependent failure probability, only take its common cause failure probability, in order to represent being total to of A that n causes because of group altogether respectively
Because of the contribution lost efficacy；After all elementary events of given system are carried out this decomposition, obtain system altogether because of group distribution and
Combined result；
(2) probability of elementary event A calculates according to equation below: PT=P0+P1+P2+...+Pn；Wherein: PTFor A
The total probability occurred, P0Individually occur for A, i.e. A0Probability, P1For A1The common cause failure of the affiliated A brought because of group altogether is general
Rate, i.e. A1Common cause failure probability, P2For A2The common cause failure probability of the affiliated A brought because of group altogether, i.e. A2Common cause failure
Probability, PnFor AnThe common cause failure probability of the affiliated A brought because of group altogether, i.e. AnCommon cause failure probability；According to this formula and
Each is altogether because of the common cause failure model formation that group is corresponding, determine that the elementary event of non-well-balanced common cause failure relates at it each altogether
Because of the ratio in group；
(3) n uses selected common cause failure model to be analyzed, then according to the formula meter of step (2) because group is internal altogether
Calculate the ultimate failure probability of elementary event.
The reliability determination methods of a kind of common cause failure based on data-driven, it is achieved step is as follows:
(1) according to common cause failure data and the system failure tree-model without common cause failure, use altogether because of STRUCTURE DECOMPOSITION method, right
System equipment or parts carry out, altogether because of distribution automatically and the combination of group, obtaining all altogether because of group, and the packet situation to common cause failure
Verify and adjust；Select the elementary event reliability model that the parts of given system are corresponding, same altogether because of the basic thing of group
Part can only select same reliability model；And select each altogether because of the common cause failure model of group selection；According to common cause failure data,
Use altogether because of STRUCTURE DECOMPOSITION method automatically determine the elementary event of non-well-balanced common cause failure its relate to altogether because of the ratio in group, must
To analysis of common cause failure result；
(2) according to analysis of common cause failure result, use altogether because of STRUCTURE DECOMPOSITION method to given system do not consider common cause failure therefore
Barrier tree-model resolves and revises, and constructs a fault tree models that can reflect common cause failure；
(3) obtain elementary event reliability model, set up given system failure tree-model, obtain the packet situation of common cause failure,
Set up the elementary event group of multiple common cause failure, use altogether because of STRUCTURE DECOMPOSITION method, revise elementary event group, obtain reflection altogether because losing
The fault tree models of effect；
(4) fault tree models of common cause failure can be reflected from data collector obtaining step (3), it is analyzed, obtains
The fail-safe analysis result of given system；The common cause failure characteristic of the given system of this result reflection；And according to real-time system monitoring
Signal, calculates the reliability in time result of system.
Present invention advantage compared with prior art is: present invention concept based on multiple common cause failure, develops one " altogether
Because of STRUCTURE DECOMPOSITION method " reliability judge system and method, it is possible to general non-well-balanced common cause failure is analyzed judge,
The non-well-balanced common cause failure being made up of dissimilar parts including those, and can process various altogether because of model.Can be to large complicated
The non-well-balanced common cause failure of system preferably processes, and analyzes reliability and the safety of system more accurately.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the system construction drawing of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is the flowchart of data collector in Fig. 1；
Fig. 3 is the flowchart of analysis of common cause failure device in Fig. 1；
Fig. 4 is the flowchart of fault tree models resolver in Fig. 1；
Fig. 5 is the flowchart of fault tree analysis device in Fig. 1；
Fig. 6 is that the poisonous substance of No. two reactor shut-off systems of Qinshan the 3rd nuclear power plant is driven introduction valve schematic diagram soon and (driven introduction valve soon for 6, often
One injection canal of composition of two series connection；As long as any one channel function three in passage is normal, then meet safety requirements,
I.e. three take the redundant system of.Carry out automatic network open source information)；
Fig. 7-1-Fig. 7-2 is the fault tree graph that Fig. 6 system carries out fail-safe analysis, and wherein Fig. 7-1 is free from common cause failure
Analysis chart；Fig. 7-2 is the analysis chart using the present invention " altogether because of STRUCTURE DECOMPOSITION method "；Fig. 7-2 has 4 altogether because of group: [1I,
2I], [1G, 2G], [1H, 2H], [1I, 1G, 1H]；
The Tu8Shi U.S. the conventional Residual heat removal pumping system of fortune nuclear reactor (four take one redundant system.Carry out the open money of automatic network
Material)；
Fig. 9-1-9-2 is the fault tree graph that Fig. 8 system carries out fail-safe analysis, and wherein Fig. 9-1 is free from dividing of common cause failure
Analysis figure, Fig. 9-2 is the analysis chart using the present invention " altogether because of STRUCTURE DECOMPOSITION method "；In Fig. 9-2, pump B3 belongs simultaneously to 2
Altogether because of group: [B1, B2, B3], [B3, B4].
Detailed description of the invention
As it is shown in figure 1, the System Operation mode of the present invention is as follows:
(1) initially with data collector: to given system, statistical test is used to obtain the common cause failure of system redundancy equipment
Data, it is possible to use other system existing common cause failure data similar with this system；And memory system architecture information, system
Analyze border and system failure tree-model；
(2) analysis of common cause failure device is then used: obtain common cause failure data from data collector, use and " divide because of structure altogether
Solution " data are analyzed, obtain its common cause failure unit construction and the ratio of various combination, result stores data collection
Device；
(3) fault tree models resolver is then used: obtain the result of analysis of common cause failure from data collector, use " altogether
Because of STRUCTURE DECOMPOSITION method " fault tree models not considering common cause failure of given system is resolved and revises, construct an energy
The fault tree models of reflection common cause failure；Result stores data collector；
(4) fault tree analysis device is finally used: obtain the fault tree models that can reflect common cause failure from data collector, to it
It is analyzed, obtains the fail-safe analysis result of given system；The common cause failure characteristic of the given system of this result reflection；And according to
Real-time system monitoring signal, calculates the reliability in time result of system；Result stores data collector.
The present invention describes in detail as follows because of STRUCTURE DECOMPOSITION method altogether:
When elementary event A representing certain equipment or parts is affected by n common cause failure simultaneously, can be according to examination
Testing data or experience, artificial resolves into this elementary event multiple elementary event (A0, A1, A2, A3..., An),
Wherein A0It is the representative that individually occurs of A, and A1, A2, A3..., AnIt is subordinated to n respectively altogether because of group；Because A1, A2,
A3..., AnNot being the event of necessary being, so here will ignore its independent failure probability, and it is general only to take its common cause failure
Rate, in order to represent the contribution of n the A common cause failure caused because of group altogether respectively.
Then, the probability decomposition equation below of elementary event A:
PT(total probability that A occurs)=P0(A individually occurs, i.e. A0Probability)+P1(A1Belonging to bring because of group altogether
The common cause failure probability of A, i.e. A1Common cause failure probability)+P2(A2The common cause failure probability of the affiliated A brought because of group altogether,
I.e. A2Common cause failure probability)+...+Pn(AnThe common cause failure probability of the affiliated A brought because of group altogether, i.e. AnAltogether because of lose
Effect probability).
The P of the most general 4 kind common cause failure models is listed belowiAnd θiComputing formula (other model can also class
As draw correlation computations formula, below the parameter estimation of 4 kinds of models, can carry out according to the method for estimation of original model):
For BPM model, have: Pi=Qt–Q1, then θi=Pi/PT=(Qt–Q1)/PT, Q here1Represent altogether
Because of the independent failure probability of certain common elementary event, Q in grouptRepresent altogether because of the total probability of certain common elementary event in group.
For BFM model, have: Pi=Qm=βB*Qt, θi=Pi/PT=βB*Qt/PT, Q heretRepresent altogether because of group
In the total probability of certain common elementary event.
For the AFM model of staggered experiment, have: Pi=(α2+α3+...+αm)*Qt, θi=Pi/PT=(α2+
α3+...+αm)*Qt/PT, it is assumed here that i-th has m elementary event because of group altogether.
MGLM model is had: Pi=βM*Qt, θi=Pi/PT=βM*Qt/PT, as γ, δ, then can basis
The definition of MGLM model just may be used.
Embodiment 1
" altogether because of STRUCTURE DECOMPOSITION method " that Fig. 6 to use the present invention is analyzed.
Analysis of common cause failure device, according to the common cause failure data of nuclear power plant's real system, obtains its common cause failure unit construction, such as:
This system should have 4 altogether because of group: [1I, 2I], [1G, 2G], [1H, 2H], [1I, 1G, 1H].Then set up Fig. 7-2
Fault tree models.Then use fault tree analysis device that it is analyzed, obtain the fail-safe analysis result of given system；This
Result can reflect the common cause failure characteristic of given system.
In Fig. 7-2, circle represents elementary event, and the character " 1I (2I) " representative " 1I " " 2I " in circle is simultaneous common
Because of failure event, other character implication is similar to.
For ease of contrast, Fig. 7-1 gives according to traditional analysis method for reliability Fig. 6 system when not considering common cause failure
Fault tree models, Fig. 7-1 is also simultaneously the analysis starting point of the present invention.
Embodiment 2
" altogether because of STRUCTURE DECOMPOSITION method " that Fig. 8 to use the present invention is analyzed.
Analysis of common cause failure device, according to the common cause failure data of nuclear power plant's real system, obtains its common cause failure unit construction, such as:
This system should have 2 altogether because of group: [B1, B2, B3], [B3, B4].Then set up the fault tree models of Fig. 9-2.Then use
It is analyzed by fault tree analysis device, obtains the fail-safe analysis result of given system；This result can reflect given system
Common cause failure characteristic.
In Fig. 9-2, circle represents elementary event, and character " B123 " representative " B1 " " B2 " " B3 " in circle is sent out simultaneously
Raw common cause failure event, other character implication is similar to.
For ease of contrast, Fig. 9-1 gives according to traditional analysis method for reliability Fig. 8 system when not considering common cause failure
Fault tree models, Fig. 9-1 is also simultaneously the analysis starting point of the present invention.
The content not being described in detail in description of the invention belongs to prior art known to professional and technical personnel in the field.
The above is only the preferred embodiment of the present invention, it is noted that for those skilled in the art,
Under the premise without departing from the principles of the invention, it is also possible to make some improvements and modifications, these improvements and modifications also should be regarded as this
Bright protection domain.
Claims (3)
1. the reliability of a common cause failure based on data-driven judges system, it is characterised in that including: data collector, altogether
Because of failure analysis device, fault tree models resolver and fault tree analysis device；
Data collector: to given system, utilizes test to obtain the common cause failure data of system redundancy equipment, it is possible to use with this
Other system existing common cause failure data that system is similar；And obtain by analysis personnel according to not containing that system structure information is built
The system failure tree-model of common cause failure；Also storage elementary event reliability model, common cause failure model, analysis of common cause failure knot
Fruit and the system failure tree-model containing common cause failure；For other module；
Analysis of common cause failure device: according to common cause failure data and the system failure tree-model without common cause failure, use altogether because of structure
Decomposition method, carries out system equipment or parts, altogether because of distribution automatically and the combination of group, obtaining all of altogether because of group, and to altogether because losing
The packet situation of effect is verified and is adjusted；Select the elementary event reliability model that the parts of given system are corresponding, same common
Because the elementary event of group can only select same reliability model；Be given each altogether because of the reliability model of group selection；According to common because of
Fail data, use altogether because of STRUCTURE DECOMPOSITION method automatically determine the elementary event of non-well-balanced common cause failure its relate to altogether because of in group
Ratio, after verifying and adjusting, then determine each altogether because of the common cause failure model organized, in finally calculating each group, elementary event is
Whole failure probability, and all results are stored data collector；
Fault tree models resolver: obtain analysis of common cause failure result from data collector, uses altogether because STRUCTURE DECOMPOSITION method is to given
The fault tree models not considering common cause failure of system resolves and revises, and constructs a fault tree that can reflect common cause failure
Model；Result stores data collector；
Fault tree analysis device: obtain the fault tree models that can reflect common cause failure from data collector, it is analyzed, obtains
The fail-safe analysis result of given system；The common cause failure characteristic of the given system of this result reflection；And according to real-time system monitoring
Signal, calculates the reliability in time result of system, and described reliability result is stored data collector.
The reliability of a kind of common cause failure based on data-driven the most according to claim 1 judges system, and its feature exists
In: described it is accomplished by because of STRUCTURE DECOMPOSITION method altogether
(1) when elementary event A representing certain equipment or parts is affected by n common cause failure simultaneously, root
According to test data, this elementary event is resolved into (n+1) individual elementary event (A0, A1, A2, A3..., An), wherein
A0It is the representative that individually occurs of A, and A1, A2, A3..., AnIt is subordinated to n respectively altogether because of group；And ignore A1, A2,
A3..., AnIndependent failure probability, only take its common cause failure probability, in order to represent being total to of A that n causes because of group altogether respectively
Because of the contribution lost efficacy；After all elementary events of given system are carried out this decomposition, obtain system altogether because of group distribution and
Combined result；
(2) probability of elementary event A calculates according to equation below: PT=P0+P1+P2+...+Pn；Wherein: PTFor A
The total probability occurred, P0Individually occur for A, i.e. A0Probability, P1For A1The common cause failure of the affiliated A brought because of group altogether is general
Rate, i.e. A1Common cause failure probability, P2For A2The common cause failure probability of the affiliated A brought because of group altogether, i.e. A2Common cause failure
Probability, PnFor AnThe common cause failure probability of the affiliated A brought because of group altogether, i.e. AnCommon cause failure probability；According to this formula and
Each is altogether because of the common cause failure model formation that group is corresponding, determine that the elementary event of non-well-balanced common cause failure relates at it each altogether
Because of the ratio in group；
(3) n uses selected common cause failure model to be analyzed, then according to the formula meter of step (2) because group is internal altogether
Calculate the ultimate failure probability of elementary event.
3. the reliability determination methods of a common cause failure based on data-driven, it is characterised in that realize step as follows:
(1) according to common cause failure data and the system failure tree-model without common cause failure, use altogether because of STRUCTURE DECOMPOSITION method, right
System equipment or parts carry out, altogether because of distribution automatically and the combination of group, obtaining all altogether because of group, and the packet situation to common cause failure
Verify and adjust；Select the elementary event reliability model that the parts of given system are corresponding, same altogether because of the basic thing of group
Part can only select same reliability model；And select each altogether because of the common cause failure model of group selection；According to common cause failure data,
Use altogether because of STRUCTURE DECOMPOSITION method automatically determine the elementary event of non-well-balanced common cause failure its relate to altogether because of the ratio in group, must
To analysis of common cause failure result；
(2) according to analysis of common cause failure result, use altogether because of STRUCTURE DECOMPOSITION method to given system do not consider common cause failure therefore
Barrier tree-model resolves and revises, and constructs a fault tree models that can reflect common cause failure；
(3) fault tree models of common cause failure can be reflected from data collector acquisition, it is analyzed, obtain given system
Fail-safe analysis result；The common cause failure characteristic of the given system of this result reflection；And according to real-time system monitoring signal, meter
The reliability in time result of calculation system.
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| CN104460337B (en) * | 2014-10-08 | 2017-06-23 | 机械工业仪器仪表综合技术经济研究所 | A kind of control system analysis of common cause failure method based on the amendment β factors |
| CN104298825B (en) * | 2014-10-10 | 2017-09-26 | 中国科学院合肥物质科学研究院 | A kind of fault tree Cooperative Analysis system based on rights management and model decomposition |
| CN104268432B (en) * | 2014-10-16 | 2017-02-08 | 中国科学院合肥物质科学研究院 | Common cause failure reliability distributing system based on fault tree analysis |
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