CN103593808B - Method for compiling orderly power utilization peak-avoiding plans on basis of grouping - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for compiling orderly power utilization peak-avoiding plans on the basis of grouping. The method comprises the steps of determining a user assembly for peak-avoiding plan compilation; evaluating the priority of user's participating in peak avoidance; forming a peak-avoiding sequence table; performing user grouping; establishing user group arrangement decision models for peak-avoiding loads at all levels, and forming the peak-avoiding loads at all levels; adjusting peak-avoiding load user groups at the same level; and performing integration to obtain the peak-avoiding plans at all levels. The user groups are formed on the basis of the peak-avoiding sequence table and the size of the peak-avoiding capacity; on the basis, formation of the peak-avoiding load user groups at all levels is optimized with the target of minimizing the social comprehensive loss, the problem that large user peak-avoiding times is much, the satisfaction is low and the peak-avoiding loss is large under a traditional compiling method of preferentially arranging large user peak avoidance is solved, and the method is favorable for resource optimal allocation and provides a novel solution to compilation of the orderly power utilization plans of electric power companies.

Description

Packet-based ordered electric keeps away peak forecasting edited method

Technical field

The present invention relates to power program establishment field is and in particular to a kind of electricity consumption keeps away the preparation method of peak prediction scheme.

Background technology

Because China is at this stage still in the rapid economic development stage, power supply and demand anxiety problem is possible to the cycle on a large scale Property occur, locality, seasonal short of electricity long-term existence.Ordered electric becomes each province and city Utilities Electric Co. and tackles the important of electric power breach Means, and keeping away peak is important measures therein, refers in peak period reduction, interrupting or stopping power load.Currently, keep away Peak prediction scheme often accounts for the difference of current maximum need for electricity ratio according to electric power or electricity breach, is divided into 4-6 grade, actual fortune Call the prediction scheme of appropriate level according to breach size during row.

For power consumer, take and keep away power consumption after peak measure and reduce, will result in certain economic loss it is therefore desirable to Optimize and keep away peak scheme, keep away, to reduce, the social loss that peak brings, realize distributing rationally of resource.And power department establishment at present keeps away Often only it is conceived to fill up the gap, the big customer that gives priority in arranging for participates in peak averting plan, this extensive style preparation method lacks during peak prediction scheme The support of weary mathematical model, have ignored the interests of big industrial user, and electric power resource allocative efficiency is not high, can not meet economic society The development of meeting.

Content of the invention

It is an object of the invention in order to overcome the shortcomings of that tradition keeps away peak forecasting edited method, providing a kind of packet-based Ordered electric keeps away peak forecasting edited method, reduces unique user by packet and keeps away peak number of times, improve user satisfaction, by optimizing Arrange the user's groups keeping away peak load at different levels, realize society and keep away peak comprehensive loss minimum, the optimization for keeping away peak prediction scheme is worked out and established Theoretical basiss.

A kind of packet-based ordered electric of the present invention keeps away peak forecasting edited method, comprises the following steps:

1) determine keep away peak forecasting edited user set and each user keep away peak capacity；

2) calculate user to participate in keeping away the priority at peak, the little user priority of priority participates in keeping away peak；

3) user according to priority sorts from small to large successively, is formed and keeps away peak tagmeme table；

4) assume that predicting the current peak load of prediction scheme is p_max, according to keep away peak tagmeme table, user keep away peak capacity to user Packet, in every group, the peak capacity sum of keeping away of user is 5%p_max, multiple user's groups are formed and for user's group # with this, calculate every User's comprehensive evaluation value sum of individual user's group；

5) set up peak load user's groups of keeping away at different levels and arrange decision model, thus obtaining the user's group groups keeping away peak load at different levels Become, be shown below:

$\begin{array}{cc}min& \underset{j=1}{\overset{m}{\σ}}\frac{\underset{i=1}{\overset{s}{\σ}}{q}_i{x}_{ij}{p}_j}{n_j}\end{array}---\left(1\right)$

$\begin{array}{cc}s.t.& \underset{j=1}{\overset{m}{\σ}}{n}_j=s,n_j\&element;n^{+}\end{array}---\left(2\right)$

$x_{i1}=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}1& 1\≤i\≤n_1\\ 0& else\end{array}\right.$

$x_{ij}=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}1& \underset{k=1}{\overset{j-1}{\&sigma;}}{n}_k\&le;i\&le;\underset{k=1}{\overset{j}{\&sigma;}}{n}_k\\ 0& \begin{array}{ccc}i>\underset{k=1}{\overset{j}{\&sigma;}}{n}_k& or& i<\underset{k=1}{\overset{j-1}{\&sigma;}}{n}_k\end{array}\end{array}\right.,j=2,\mathrm{3.....}m---\left(3\right)$

$\frac{p_j}{n_j}\&greaterequal;\frac{p_{j+1}}{n_{j+1}},j=1,2,...,m-1---\left(4\right)$

In formula: q_iComprehensive evaluation value sum for users all in user's group i；x_ijFor 0-1 variable, represent that user's group i is The no j level that belongs to keeps away peak load,p_jKeep away the called number of times of the current prediction of peak load for j level；n_jFor J level keeps away the user's group number contained by peak load,S is user's group sum；M is classified number for prediction scheme；

6) carry out the adjustment of user between each user's group keeping away peak load in peer, obtain the final use keeping away peak load at different levels Family group and user are constituted；

7) integrate at different levels keep away peak load and obtain classification keep away peak prediction scheme.

The evaluation of described step 2 medium priority is from load level, the direct economic loss of keeping away peak, be related to staff number, industry Multiple angle such as policy goodness of fit is launched, and its evaluation of estimate can reflect that user participates in keeping away the comprehensive loss at peak.

The object function of described step 5 is minimum for the social synthesis' loss summation keeping away peak during prediction scheme, and constraints is:

1. peak load user's group number sums of keeping away at different levels are equal to total user's group number；

2. user's group be included in order different grades of keep away in peak load, that is, number little user's group and belong to lower level and keep away peak Load；

3. relatively low rank is kept away the average call number of each user's group in peak load and is respectively used more than higher leveled keeping away in peak load The average call number of family group.

Using technical scheme, can achieve following beneficial effect: the present invention keeps away peak prediction scheme for ordered electric Preparing method has carried out basic research, forms user grouping and keeps away the basic theories that peak load optimal arranges, is the establishment of prediction scheme Provide scientific theory to support, fully demonstrate fair and just principle, optimize resource distribution: (1) joins to user from multi-angle Evaluated with the priority keeping away peak, the low user priority of evaluation of estimate participates in keeping away peak, and only using customer charge size as judge It is more fair and reasonable that traditional preparation method of foundation is compared；(2) introduce the concept of user grouping, keep away peak load by multiple with one-level User's group is constituted, and during prediction scheme execution, these user's groups are called in turn, effectively reduce the call number of unique user, improve user full Meaning degree；(3) set up peak load user's groups of keeping away at different levels and arrange decision model, optimize the user's group compositions keeping away peak load at different levels, make to keep away Social synthesis' loss summation at peak is minimum, optimizes resource distribution.

Brief description

Fig. 1 is the general flow chart of the inventive method；

Fig. 2 keeps away peak priority overall evaluation system for user；

Fig. 3 user's group Forming Mechanism；

Fig. 4 is the call-by mechanism (note: generally keep away peak prediction scheme and be divided into 5 grades, when load breach is current more than prediction scheme keeping away peak prediction scheme Prediction peak load 25% when the other measures such as will consider to ration the power supply, not in the limit of consideration keeping away peak prediction scheme)；

Fig. 5 is user's method of adjustment that peer keeps away between each user's group of peak load；

Fig. 6 is proposed preparation method optimum results；

Fig. 7 is the contrast of proposed preparation method and traditional preparation method.

Specific embodiment

Below technical solution of the present invention is described in detail, but protection scope of the present invention is not limited to described enforcement Example.

The present embodiment keeps away peak forecasting edited method for a kind of packet-based ordered electric, as shown in figure 1, including following walking Rapid:

1) determine that keeps away user's set of peak forecasting edited and each user keeps away peak capacity, as shown in table 1:

Table 1 keep away peak forecasting edited user set and each user keep away peak capacity

2) evaluate user and participate in keeping away the priority at peak:

1. according to comparability, science, independence, comprehensive, systemic, representative and operability principle, from Electrical characteristics, social economy and three dimensions of policy guidance are set out, and set up user as shown in Figure 2 and keep away peak priority overall merit and refer to Mark system.This appraisement system is not only counted and is kept away the impact to user for the peak it is also contemplated that the industrial policy of country, energy policy And environmental protection policy, fully demonstrate the guiding optimized allocation of resources.The indices value of user involved by prediction scheme is as shown in table 2, its Middle industrial policy goodness of fit and environmental acts of enterprises are by expert estimation:

Table 2 user's indices value

2. utilize entropy assessment to obtain the weight of each index, and using linear weighted function ask for each user to keep away peak priority comprehensive Close evaluation of estimate.Calculating process is:

To accounting when can keep away peak load, electricity consumption peak and the reverse index forward directionization processing method of the energy consumption per unit of output value this three:

$x_{ij}=\underset{1\&le;i\&le;m}{max}\left\{x_{ij}^{,}\right\}-x_{ij}^{,}$

In formula: x '_ijFor the original index observation before not forward directionization；x_ijFor the standard index observation after forward directionization.

Assume there is m user to be assessed, n item evaluation index, according to the actual state of assessment user, can get they with regard to The state matrix of multi objective:

$r^{,}={\left(r_{ij}^{,}\right)}_{m\&times;n}=\left[\begin{array}{cccc}{r}_{11}^{,}& r_{12}^{,}& ...& r_{1n}^{,}\\ r_{21}^{,}& r_{12}^{,}& ...& r_{2n}^{,}\\ ...& ...& ...& ...\\ r_{m1}^{,}& r_{m2}^{,}& ...& r_{mn}^{,}\end{array}\right]$

In formula: r '_ijFor observation in jth item index for the user i.

R ' is standardized process, obtains standard state matrix r=(r_ij)_m×n.Wherein, r_ijCalculation expression be:

$r_{ij}=\frac{r_{ij}^{,}-\underset{1\&le;i\&le;n}{\min }\left\{r_{ij}^{,}\right\}}{\underset{1\&le;i\&le;n}{max}\left\{r_{ij}^{,}\right\}-\underset{1\&le;i\&le;n}{\min }\left\{r_{ij}^{,}\right\}}$

Being calculated as follows of weight:

$p_y=\frac{r_{ij}}{\underset{i=1}{\overset{m}{\&sigma;}}{r}_{ij}}$

$e_j=-\frac{1}{\ln m}\underset{i=1}{\overset{m}{\&sigma;}}{p}_{ij}\ln p_{ij}$

b_j=1-e_j

$w_j=\frac{b_j}{\underset{j=1}{\overset{n}{\&sigma;}}{b}_j}$

In formula: p_ijThe proportion of the jth item index for user i；e_jEntropy for jth item index；b_jVariation Lines for index j Number；w_jEntropy weight for jth item index.

The comprehensive evaluation value q of user i_iFor:

$q_i=\underset{j=1}{\overset{n}{\&sigma;}}{w}_j{r}_{ij}$

The comprehensive evaluation value being obtained each user by above-mentioned computational methods is as shown in table 3:

The each user's comprehensive evaluation value of table 3

3) user sorts from small to large successively by comprehensive evaluation value, is formed and keeps away peak tagmeme table, as shown in table 4；

Peak tagmeme table kept away by table 4

4) it is assumed that predicting the current peak load of prediction scheme to be 1,520,000 kilowatts in the present embodiment, the peak of keeping away of each user's group is born Lotus size is the 5% of peak load, that is, 7.6 ten thousand kilowatts.

According to keeping away peak payload, keep away peak capacity and the tagmeme of each user divide user's group, and are user's group #, packet Mechanism is as shown in figure 3, group result is shown in Table 5.

Table 5 user's group division result

5) call-by mechanism according to Fig. 4, sets up peak load user's groups of keeping away at different levels and arranges decision model, current with prediction scheme The social synthesis keeping away peak lose the minimum objective optimization of the sum user's group composition keeping away peak load at different levels it may be assumed that

$\begin{array}{cc}min& \underset{j=1}{\overset{m}{\&sigma;}}\frac{\underset{i=1}{\overset{s}{\&sigma;}}{q}_i{x}_{ij}{p}_j}{n_j}\end{array}$

In formula: q_iComprehensive evaluation value sum for users all in user's group i；x_ijFor 0-1 variable, represent that user's group i is The no j level that belongs to keeps away peak load,p_jKeep away the called number of times of the current prediction of peak load for j level；n_j Keep away the user's group number contained by peak load for j level,S is user's group sum；M is classified number for prediction scheme.

The constraints meeting is needed to have:

1. peak load user's group number sums of keeping away at different levels are equal to total user's group number and peak load of keeping away at different levels at least contains a use Family group

$\underset{j=1}{\overset{m}{\&sigma;}}{n}_j=s,n_j\&element;n^{+}$

2. the sequence arrangement mechanism of user's group, that is, when arranging the user's group keeping away peak load at different levels, user's group is included in order Different grades of keep away in peak load, number little user's group and belong to lower level and keep away peak load

$x_{i1}=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}1& 1\&le;i\&le;n_1\\ 0& else\end{array}\right.$

$x_{ij}=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}1& \underset{k=1}{\overset{j-1}{\&sigma;}}{n}_k\&le;i\&le;\underset{k=1}{\overset{j}{\&sigma;}}{n}_k\\ 0& \begin{array}{ccc}i>\underset{k=1}{\overset{j}{\&sigma;}}{n}_k& or& i<\underset{k=1}{\overset{j-1}{\&sigma;}}{n}_k\end{array}\end{array}\right.,j=2,\mathrm{3.....}m$

3. relatively low rank is kept away the average call number of each user's group in peak load and is respectively used more than higher leveled keeping away in peak load The average call number of family group

$\frac{p_j}{n_j}\&greaterequal;\frac{p_{j+1}}{n_{j+1}},j=1,2,...,m-1$

Prediction obtains the current call number such as table 6 keeping away peak load at different levels.

The current prediction call number keeping away peak load at different levels of table 6

Solve and keep away peak load user's group and arrange decision model to obtain the peak loads compositions of keeping away at different levels shown in table 7:

The table 7 user's group composition keeping away peak load at different levels

6) carry out the adjustment of user between each user's group keeping away peak load in peer, (Fig. 5 is to keep away in peak load as shown in Figure 5 As a example 3 user's groups), obtain the final user's groups keeping away peak load at different levels and user and constitute, as shown in table 8, in table in include Number represent same user's group:

Table 8 user's group keeping away peak load at different levels and user are constituted

7) integrate at different levels keep away peak load and obtain classification keep away peak prediction scheme, be shown in Table 9:

Table 9 classification keeps away peak prediction scheme

Fig. 6 gives each user in the current estimated average call number of prediction scheme and its comprehensive loss, in figure abscissa table Show user, omit letter " b " for simplicity, such as number " 12 " represents user " b12 ".In conjunction with table 3 as can be seen that comprehensive comment It is worth its average call number of less user more, consistent with the basic principle keeping away peak forecasting edited.

Relatively proposed forecasting edited optimization method and the big industrial user that gives priority in arranging for participate in keeping away the tradition side at peak Under two methods of method, the comprehensive loss of each user, as shown in Figure 7.Result shows: under traditional method, partly big industrial user pushes up Play load breach, correspondingly also taken on and all kept away peak loss；And proposed optimization method can allow and keep away peak loss Spread out each user, more fair and reasonable.

As above, although having represented with reference to specific preferred embodiment and having described the present invention, it shall not be construed as right The restriction of the present invention itself.Under the premise of the spirit and scope of the present invention defining without departing from claims, can to its In form and in details, various changes can be made.

Claims (3)

1. a kind of packet-based ordered electric keep away peak forecasting edited method it is characterised in that: comprise the following steps:

1) determine keep away peak forecasting edited user set and each user keep away peak capacity；

2) calculate user to participate in keeping away the priority at peak, the little user priority of priority participates in keeping away peak；

3) user according to priority sorts from small to large successively, is formed and keeps away peak tagmeme table；

4) assume that predicting the current peak load of prediction scheme is p_max, according to keeping away peak tagmeme table, the peak capacity of keeping away of user divides to user Group, in every group, the peak capacity sum of keeping away of user is 5%p_max, multiple user's groups are formed and for user's group # with this, calculate each User's comprehensive evaluation value sum of user's group；

5) set up peak load user's groups of keeping away at different levels and arrange decision model, thus obtaining the user's group compositions keeping away peak load at different levels, such as Shown in following formula:

$min\underset{j=1}{\overset{m}{\&sigma;}}\frac{\underset{i=1}{\overset{s}{\&sigma;}}{q}_i{x}_{ij}{p}_j}{n_j}---\left(1\right)$

$\begin{array}{cc}s.t.& \underset{j=1}{\overset{m}{\&sigma;}}{n}_j=s,n_j\&element;n^{+}\end{array}---\left(2\right)$

$x_{i1}=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}1& 1\&le;i\&le;n_1\\ 0& else\end{array}\right.$

$x_{ij}=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}1& \underset{k=1}{\overset{j-1}{\&sigma;}}{n}_k\&le;i\&le;\underset{k=1}{\overset{j}{\&sigma;}}{n}_k\\ 0& i>\underset{k=1}{\overset{j}{\&sigma;}}{n}_{k}ori<\underset{k=1}{\overset{j-1}{\&sigma;}}{n}_k\end{array}\right.,j=2,\mathrm{3.....}m---\left(3\right)$

$\frac{p_j}{n_j}\&greaterequal;\frac{p_{j+1}}{n_{j+1}},j=1,2,...,m-1---\left(4\right)$

In formula: q_iComprehensive evaluation value sum for users all in user's group i；x_ijFor 0-1 variable, represent whether user's group i belongs to Keep away peak load in j level,p_jKeep away the called number of times of the current prediction of peak load for j level；n_jFor j level Keep away the user's group number contained by peak load,S is user's group sum；M is classified number for prediction scheme；

6) carry out the adjustment of user between each user's group keeping away peak load in peer, obtain the final user's groups keeping away peak load at different levels And user is constituted；

7) integrate at different levels keep away peak load and obtain classification keep away peak prediction scheme.

2. packet-based ordered electric according to claim 1 keeps away peak forecasting edited method it is characterised in that described step In rapid 2), the evaluation of priority when load level, electricity consumption peak accounting, keep away peak pressure load potentiality, keep away peak direct economic loss, relate to And staff number, total output value, industrial policy goodness of fit, the energy consumption per unit of output value, environmental acts of enterprises totally 9 indexs are launched, Its evaluation of estimate can reflect that user participates in keeping away the comprehensive loss at peak.

3. packet-based ordered electric according to claim 1 keeps away peak forecasting edited method it is characterised in that described step The object function of rapid 5) is minimum for keeping away peak comprehensive loss prediction summation during prediction scheme, and constraints is:

1. peak load user's group number sums of keeping away at different levels are equal to total user's group number；

2. user's group be included in order different grades of keep away in peak load, that is, number little user's group belong to lower level keep away peak bear Lotus；

3. relatively low rank is kept away the average call number of each user's group in peak load and is more than and higher leveled keeps away each user's group in peak load Average call number.