CN103530705A - Coal gas forecasting method, device and system for iron and steel enterprise - Google Patents

Coal gas forecasting method, device and system for iron and steel enterprise Download PDF

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CN103530705A
CN103530705A CN201310487192.9A CN201310487192A CN103530705A CN 103530705 A CN103530705 A CN 103530705A CN 201310487192 A CN201310487192 A CN 201310487192A CN 103530705 A CN103530705 A CN 103530705A
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coal gas
consumption
data
produce
gas
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胡星
李永兵
汪卫
刘智平
马于涛
吕文学
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Wuhan Iron Steel Engineering Technology Group Automation Co ltd
Wuhan Iron and Steel Group Corp
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Wuhan Iron Steel Engineering Technology Group Automation Co ltd
Wuhan Iron and Steel Group Corp
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Abstract

The embodiment of the invention provides a forecasting method, device and system for coal gas production and consumption. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring coal gas production and consumption data; preprocessing the coal gas production and consumption data; building a coal gas production and consumption forecasting model according to the preprocessed coal gas production and consumption data; acquiring the forecasted value and variation trend of the coal gas production and consumption in a future preset time interval according to the coal gas production and consumption forecasting model. According to the method, the forecast of the coal gas production and consumption data is optimized, a quantization basis of coal gas balance dispatching is provided, operators or industrial control equipment can work according to the quantization basis, and the accuracy of coal gas balance dispatching is increased.

Description

A kind of iron and steel enterprise coal gas Forecasting Methodology, Apparatus and system
Technical field
The present invention relates to steel and iron industry field, relate in particular to a kind of iron and steel enterprise coal gas Forecasting Methodology, Apparatus and system.
Background technology
In iron and steel enterprise, productive unit is constantly to change to the demand of the energy (as coal gas, electric power, oxygen, nitrogen, argon, steam, water etc.).The change of procedure parameter adjustment, processing route, the variation of operating duty all can cause that the short term need of the energy changes, and usually cause the short-term of energy supply and demand uneven, cause diffusing of energy medium, cause unnecessary waste even to produce potential safety hazard.
Because coal gas is as the important secondary energy of iron and steel enterprise, can whether its balance directly has influence on iron and steel enterprise's technological process be carried out smoothly, and energy consumption index, therefore in pipe network mobile equilibrium, around coal gas, carry out mobile equilibrium, realization is guaranteeing under Production requirement prerequisite, improve coal-gas recovering amount, reduce the conversion of coal gas and diffuse, reach better saving energy and reduce the cost.The detection level of the automated system of each iron and steel enterprise, control and control measures are had nothing in common with each other, cause dispatcher when carrying out gas balance, there is no the means of quantitative balance, main experience and the experimental method that relies on dispatcher, experience difference due to dispatcher, often causing coal gas system to return to balance needs the long period, has increased coal gas and has dispersed probability.
Summary of the invention
A kind of iron and steel enterprise coal gas Forecasting Methodology, Apparatus and system that the embodiment of the present invention provides, complicated in order to solve gas balance scheduling, without the problem of quantitative basis, realize coal gas and produce consumption data prediction, for operating personnel carry out gas balance scheduling, provide quantitative basis.
The object of the embodiment of the present invention is achieved through the following technical solutions:
A coal gas Forecasting Methodology, comprising:
Obtain coal gas and produce consumption data, described coal gas produces consumption data and comprises coal gas quantum of output and gas consumption amount;
Described coal gas is produced to consumption data and carry out pre-service;
According to pretreated described coal gas, produce consumption data, set up coal gas and produce consumption forecast model;
According to coal gas, produce consumption forecast model, obtain coal gas in following Preset Time section and produce predicted value and the variation tendency consuming.
A coal gas prediction unit, comprising:
Data acquisition module, produces consumption data for obtaining coal gas, and described coal gas produces consumption data and comprises coal gas quantum of output and gas consumption amount;
Data processing module, produces consumption data for the described coal gas that described data acquisition module is obtained and carries out pre-service,
Data modeling module, for producing consumption data according to the pretreated described coal gas of described data processing module, sets up coal gas and produces consumption forecast model;
Data prediction module, produces consumption forecast model according to coal gas, obtains coal gas in following Preset Time section and produces predicted value and the variation tendency consuming.
A coal gas prediction unit, comprising:
At least one data acquisition equipment, produces consumption data for the coal gas gathering, and described coal gas produces consumption data and comprises coal gas quantum of output and gas consumption amount;
Coal gas prediction unit, for the coal gas obtaining from described data acquisition equipment, produce consumption data, described coal gas is produced to consumption data and carry out pre-service, according to pretreated described coal gas, produce consumption data, set up coal gas and produce consumption forecast model, according to coal gas, produce consumption forecast model, obtain coal gas in following Preset Time section and produce predicted value and the variation tendency consuming.
By a kind of iron and steel enterprise coal gas Forecasting Methodology is provided in the embodiment of the present invention, Apparatus and system, by the coal gas obtaining from described data acquisition equipment, produce consumption data, described coal gas is produced to consumption data and carry out pre-service, according to pretreated described coal gas, produce consumption data, set up coal gas and produce consumption forecast model, according to coal gas, produce consumption forecast model, obtain coal gas in following Preset Time section and produce predicted value and the variation tendency consuming, optimize coal gas and produced the prediction that consumes data, the quantitative basis of gas balance scheduling is provided, operating personnel or industrial control equipment, according to this quantitative basis, improved the accuracy of gas balance scheduling.
Accompanying drawing explanation
In order to be illustrated more clearly in the embodiment of the present invention or technical scheme of the prior art, to the accompanying drawing of required use in embodiment be briefly described below, apparently, accompanying drawing in the following describes is only some embodiments of the present invention, for those of ordinary skills, do not paying under the prerequisite of creative work, can also obtain according to these accompanying drawings other accompanying drawing.
Fig. 1 is a kind of scene schematic diagram providing in the embodiment of the present invention;
Fig. 2 is a kind of iron and steel enterprise coal gas Forecasting Methodology providing in the embodiment of the present invention;
Fig. 3 is that the coal gas providing in the embodiment of the present invention produces the variation of consumption and predicts the outcome;
Fig. 4 is that the coal gas product consumption providing in the embodiment of the present invention exceeds predicting the outcome of threshold value;
Fig. 5 is the another kind of iron and steel enterprise coal gas Forecasting Methodology providing in the embodiment of the present invention;
Fig. 6 is the another kind of iron and steel enterprise coal gas prediction unit providing in the embodiment of the present invention.
Embodiment
For above-mentioned purpose of the present invention, feature and advantage can be become apparent more, below in conjunction with the drawings and specific embodiments, the present invention is further detailed explanation.
As shown in Figure 1, a kind of application scenarios for the embodiment of the present invention, comprise gaspipe network, sensor collection network and industrial computer system, the gas pipe net system of iron and steel enterprise relates to Gas Production, conveying, storage, distribution, all too many levels such as consumes, diffuses.Various gas medium (blast furnace gases in Fig. 1, coke-oven gas and coal gas of converter) after treatment, be introduced into gas chamber, then by pressure regulator or coal gas mixing station, be fed to steel-producing system, or be fed to the equipment such as boiler, gas turbine of power houses, be converted into other energy medium such as steam, electric power.The network of sensor collection network for the sensor on each equipment being linked together by IEC61158 standard for Fieldbus or LAN (Local Area Network) TCP/IP standard, the sensor on each equipment is responsible for gathering the product consumption data of coal gas.Wherein, these equipment comprise energy supply equipment and energy consumption equipment, and energy supply equipment comprises recovery furnace and blast furnace, and energy consumption equipment comprises the dissimilar equipment such as the steel rolling of iron and steel in producing, sintering, coking.Industrial computer system can comprise server cluster and operating host, and industrial computer system is responsible for collecting and is gathered the image data of sensor, and carries out forecast analysis and warning.
Embodiment mono-
A kind of iron and steel enterprise coal gas Forecasting Methodology is provided in the embodiment of the present invention one, and the industrial computer system 101 of take in the scene of Fig. 1 is example, method flow diagram, as shown in Figure 2:
Step 201, obtain coal gas and produce consumption data, described coal gas produces consumption data and comprises coal gas quantum of output and gas consumption amount;
Wherein, utilize based on fieldbus IEC 61158:2003 standard or the sensor network based on TCP/IP standard, communicate and exchanges data with sensor, from be distributed in sensor everywhere, obtain coal gas and produce consumption.It is different local that these sensors are positioned at converter, gas chamber, diffusing tower, gas fired-boiler etc., recorded coal gas and produced the historical data consuming.
Step 202, described coal gas is produced to consumption data carry out pre-service;
Because sensor function and brand that scene is used are different, the coal gas of its record produces consumption data and is not quite similar.Therefore, step 202 need to be to carrying out pre-service from the raw data that sensor obtains everywhere, for example: use unified measurement unit, chronomere and data layout, utilize relational database management system (Relational Database Management System, RDBMS) or utilize the Excel of Microsoft form to carry out storage operation.
Step 203, according to pretreated described coal gas, produce consumption data, set up coal gas and produce consumption forecast model;
Wherein, data based on after pre-service, adopting specific mathematical model to produce consumption data to coal gas predicts, for example: can adopt autoregression (Auto Regressive, AR) the advanced mathematical model such as model, artificial neural network (Artificial Neural Networks, ANN), genetic algorithm (Genetic Algorithm).Take AR model as example, and AR model is a kind of common Time Series Analysis Model, as shown in following formula:
Y (t)=a1y (t-1)+... any (t-p)+e (t), wherein, the white noise signal that e (t) is 0 for average.
T numerical value y (t) constantly by t constantly before p moment numerical value weighted mean (a1y (t-1)+... any (t-p)) and the stochastic process value e (t) that produces of present moment random perturbation determine.By present computer automation method, can carry out data automatic Fitting with open source software instrument or the MATLAB of R language, calculate the weighting parameters value (a1, a2...an) of AR model.And in the present embodiment, the coal gas of a known N time point produces consumption data, adopt AR model inference to go out before N time point or the product of coal gas below consumption data.
Step 204, according to coal gas, produce consumption forecast model, obtain predicted value and variation tendency that coal gas in following Preset Time section produces consumption.
Wherein, for promoting prediction accuracy, the forecast model of setting up here can arrange certain pre-set interval, for example: the energy production consumption situation of predict future 30min～180min, user can select prediction period length and prediction and calculation cycle according to demand, and the prediction and calculation cycle is the shortest is 5min.
And certain pre-set interval is set, be short-term forecasting, make the day supply and demand prediction with respect to coal gas, be more close to field condition, prediction accuracy also increases.
As shown in Figure 3, for the coal gas carrying out based on AR model produces the variation of consumption and predicts the outcome, as can be seen from the figure, the vertical line left side is that coal gas produces the historical variations trend consuming, and the following coal gas that vertical line the right is prediction produces the variation tendency consuming.
A kind of iron and steel enterprise coal gas Forecasting Methodology providing in the embodiment of the present invention one, by the coal gas obtaining from described data acquisition equipment, produce consumption data, described coal gas is produced to consumption data and carry out pre-service, according to pretreated described coal gas, produce consumption data, set up coal gas and produce consumption forecast model, according to coal gas, produce consumption forecast model, obtain coal gas in following Preset Time section and produce predicted value and the variation tendency consuming, optimize coal gas and produced the prediction that consumes data, the quantitative basis of gas balance scheduling is provided, operating personnel or industrial control equipment, according to this quantitative basis, improved the accuracy of gas balance scheduling.
In the embodiment of the present invention one, the influence factor of producing consumption due to coal gas is numerous, and predicting the outcome of forecast model always exists certain error with actual conditions, therefore need to, according to difference between predicted value and actual value, carry out model parameter renewal.For example: after step 204, can also comprise:
Every Preset Time section, according to described coal gas, produce the predicted value of consumption and the difference between actual value, model parameter is revised.
Wherein, model parameter modification method comprises modification method and the modification method based on identifying dynamic parameter based on error running mean.
Here by model parameter is constantly revised, improved the accuracy of model prediction.
Embodiment bis-
Another kind of iron and steel enterprise coal gas Forecasting Methodology is provided in the embodiment of the present invention two, on the basis of embodiment mono-, has increased when predicted value indication gaspipe network is about to out of trim, to user, sent the step of the indication of reporting to the police, method flow diagram, as shown in Figure 4:
Step 401, obtain coal gas and produce consumption data, described coal gas produces consumption data and comprises coal gas quantum of output and gas consumption amount;
Step 402, described coal gas is produced to consumption data carry out pre-service;
Step 403, according to pretreated described coal gas, produce consumption data, set up coal gas and produce consumption forecast model;
Step 404, according to coal gas, produce consumption forecast model, obtain predicted value and variation tendency that coal gas in following Preset Time section produces consumption;
Step 405, according to coal gas in following Preset Time section, produce the predicted value of consumption, obtain the predicted value of gas chamber position in following Preset Time section;
Step 406, when the predicted value of described gas chamber position surpasses predetermined threshold value, to user, send the indication of reporting to the police.
The embodiment of the present invention two, on the basis of the embodiment of the present invention one, according to coal gas in following Preset Time section, produce the predicted value of consumption, obtain the predicted value of gas chamber position in following Preset Time section, when the predicted value of described gas chamber position surpasses predetermined threshold value, to user, send the indication of reporting to the police, realized the warning precognition before the gaspipe network energy is unbalance, make operating personnel have the sufficient time to produce consumption to coal gas and dispatch adjustment, in addition, also can trigger automatic control system coal gas is produced to the scheduling adjustment that consumption is carried out robotization, realize coal gas and produced the robotization adjustment function that consumes balance.
The step 401 of the embodiment of the present invention two is corresponding to step 204 with the step 201 in the embodiment of the present invention one to step 404, does not repeat them here.
Can be according to the balance equation of gaspipe network in step 405, and in conjunction with coal gas in following Preset Time section, produce the predicted value of consumption, calculate the predicted value of gas chamber position in following Preset Time section.
The balance equation of gaspipe network is:
Q i = P i + P i ′ + B i + Q i
Wherein, according to gaspipe network actual conditions, by the situation for distinct device abstract be energy supply node, energy resource consumption node, load capable of regulating node, buffer joint, coal gas mixed node etc.Supply node output coal gas amount predicted value is
Figure BDA0000397311930000062
consuming node consumption coal gas amount predicted value is load capable of regulating node consumption predicted value is
Figure BDA0000397311930000064
buffer joint (gas chamber) memory space predicted value is
Figure BDA0000397311930000065
emission coal gas amount predicted value is O i, in the present embodiment, in order to simplify summation operation, the key node that only need to propose user is set up forecast model, then summation.
The equation of gas chamber position is:
H i = Σ t = 0 i B i / K + H 0
Wherein, K is the constant for different gas chambers.Balance equation by gaspipe network can calculate B i = Q i - P i - P i ′ - O i , The predicted value of gas chamber position H i = Σ t = 0 i ( Q i - P i - P i ′ - Q i ) / K + H 0 , Here when gaspipe network exists a plurality of gas chamber, need to list different gas chamber azimuth equation and forecast model over against the gas chamber of diverse location.
In step 406, when the predicted value of described gas chamber position surpasses predetermined threshold value, to user, send the indication of reporting to the police.As shown in Figure 5, in conjunction with the data before the T2 time, drawn the anticipation trend curve of dotted portion, anticipation trend curve has surpassed predetermined threshold value 22 in the T3 time, now system is constantly delivered newspaper and is warned indication to user at T2, being equivalent to the time that operating personnel have shifted to an earlier date T3-T2 has known unbalance situation, has carried out in advance scheduling adjustment.
A kind of iron and steel enterprise coal gas prediction unit is provided in the embodiment of the present invention, as shown in Figure 6, has comprised:
Data acquisition module 610, produces consumption data for obtaining coal gas, and described coal gas produces consumption data and comprises coal gas quantum of output and gas consumption amount;
Data processing module 620, produces consumption data for the described coal gas that described data acquisition module 610 is obtained and carries out pre-service,
Data modeling module 630, for producing consumption data according to the pretreated described coal gas of described data processing module 620, sets up coal gas and produces consumption forecast model;
Data prediction module 640, produces consumption forecast model according to coal gas, obtains coal gas in following Preset Time section and produces predicted value and the variation tendency consuming.
Wherein, described device, also comprises:
Alarm module 650, for produce the predicted value of consumption according to coal gas in following Preset Time section, obtains the predicted value of gas chamber position in following Preset Time section, when the predicted value of described gas chamber position surpasses predetermined threshold value, to user, sends the indication of reporting to the police.
Described data modeling module 630, specifically for producing consumption data according to pretreated described coal gas, based on autoregression AR model, is set up coal gas and is produced consumption forecast model.
Described data processing module 620 is regular specifically for described coal gas product consumption data are formatd, unified measurement unit and data layout, and utilize relational database management system RDBMS or data sheet to store.
Described data modeling module 630 also, for every Preset Time section, is produced the predicted value of consumption and the difference between actual value according to described coal gas, and model parameter is revised.
A kind of iron and steel enterprise coal gas prediction unit is also provided in the embodiment of the present invention, has comprised:
At least one data acquisition equipment, produces consumption data for gathering coal gas, and described coal gas produces consumption data and comprises coal gas quantum of output and gas consumption amount;
Coal gas prediction unit, for the coal gas obtaining from described data acquisition equipment, produce consumption data, described coal gas is produced to consumption data and carry out pre-service, according to pretreated described coal gas, produce consumption data, set up coal gas and produce consumption forecast model, according to coal gas, produce consumption forecast model, obtain coal gas in following Preset Time section and produce predicted value and the variation tendency consuming.
Through the above description of the embodiments, those skilled in the art can be well understood to the mode that the present invention can add essential hardware platform by software and realize, can certainly all by hardware, implement, but in a lot of situation, the former is better embodiment.Understanding based on such, what technical scheme of the present invention contributed to background technology can embody with the form of software product in whole or in part, this computer software product can be stored in storage medium, as ROM/RAM, magnetic disc, CD etc., comprise that some instructions are with so that a computer equipment (can be personal computer, server, or the network equipment etc.) carry out the method described in some part of each embodiment of the present invention or embodiment.
Above the present invention is described in detail, has applied specific case herein principle of the present invention and embodiment are set forth, the explanation of above embodiment is just for helping to understand method of the present invention and core concept thereof; , for one of ordinary skill in the art, according to thought of the present invention, all will change in specific embodiments and applications, in sum, this description should not be construed as limitation of the present invention meanwhile.

Claims (10)

1.Yi Zhong iron and steel enterprise coal gas Forecasting Methodology, is characterized in that, comprising:
Obtain coal gas and produce consumption data, described coal gas produces consumption data and comprises coal gas quantum of output and gas consumption amount;
Described coal gas is produced to consumption data and carry out pre-service;
According to pretreated described coal gas, produce consumption data, set up coal gas and produce consumption forecast model;
According to coal gas, produce consumption forecast model, obtain coal gas in following Preset Time section and produce predicted value and the variation tendency consuming.
2. iron and steel enterprise according to claim 1 coal gas Forecasting Methodology, is characterized in that, described method, also comprises:
According to coal gas in following Preset Time section, produce the predicted value of consumption, obtain the predicted value of gas chamber position in following Preset Time section;
When the predicted value of described gas chamber position surpasses predetermined threshold value, to user, send the indication of reporting to the police.
3. iron and steel enterprise according to claim 1 coal gas Forecasting Methodology, is characterized in that, describedly according to pretreated described coal gas, produces consumption data, sets up coal gas and produces consumption forecast model, comprising:
According to pretreated described coal gas, produce consumption data, based on special algorithm, set up coal gas and produce consumption forecast model, described special algorithm comprises recurrence AR model, artificial neural network and genetic algorithm.
4. iron and steel enterprise according to claim 1 coal gas Forecasting Methodology, is characterized in that, describedly described coal gas is produced to consumption data carries out pre-service, comprising:
To described coal gas produce consumption data format regular, unified measurement unit and data layout, and utilize relational database management system RDBMS or data sheet to store.
5. according to the iron and steel enterprise's coal gas Forecasting Methodology described in any one in claim 1 to 4, it is characterized in that, described method, also comprises:
Every Preset Time section, according to described coal gas, produce the predicted value of consumption and the difference between actual value, model parameter is revised.
6.Yi Zhong iron and steel enterprise coal gas prediction unit, is characterized in that, comprising:
Data acquisition module, produces consumption data for obtaining coal gas, and described coal gas produces consumption data and comprises coal gas quantum of output and gas consumption amount;
Data processing module, produces consumption data for the described coal gas that described data acquisition module is obtained and carries out pre-service,
Data modeling module, for producing consumption data according to the pretreated described coal gas of described data processing module, sets up coal gas and produces consumption forecast model;
Data prediction module, produces consumption forecast model according to coal gas, obtains coal gas in following Preset Time section and produces predicted value and the variation tendency consuming.
7. iron and steel enterprise according to claim 6 coal gas prediction unit, is characterized in that, described device, also comprises:
Alarm module, for produce the predicted value of consumption according to coal gas in following Preset Time section, obtains the predicted value of gas chamber position in following Preset Time section, when the predicted value of described gas chamber position surpasses predetermined threshold value, to user, sends the indication of reporting to the police.
8. iron and steel enterprise according to claim 6 coal gas prediction unit, it is characterized in that, described data modeling module is specifically for producing consumption data according to pretreated described coal gas, based on special algorithm, set up coal gas and produce consumption forecast model, described special algorithm comprises recurrence AR model, artificial neural network and genetic algorithm.
9. according to the iron and steel enterprise's coal gas prediction unit described in any one in claim 6 to 8, it is characterized in that, described data modeling module also, for every Preset Time section, is produced the predicted value of consumption and the difference between actual value according to described coal gas, and model parameter is revised.
10.Yi Zhong iron and steel enterprise coal gas prediction unit, is characterized in that, comprising:
At least one data acquisition equipment, produces consumption data for gathering coal gas, and described coal gas produces consumption data and comprises coal gas quantum of output and gas consumption amount;
Coal gas prediction unit, for the coal gas obtaining from described data acquisition equipment, produce consumption data, described coal gas is produced to consumption data and carry out pre-service, according to pretreated described coal gas, produce consumption data, set up coal gas and produce consumption forecast model, according to coal gas, produce consumption forecast model, obtain coal gas in following Preset Time section and produce predicted value and the variation tendency consuming.
CN201310487192.9A 2013-10-17 2013-10-17 Coal gas forecasting method, device and system for iron and steel enterprise Pending CN103530705A (en)

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Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN104503401A (en) * 2014-12-11 2015-04-08 柳州钢铁股份有限公司 Slab coal consumption monitoring method of hot continuous rolling production line
CN104615856A (en) * 2015-01-06 2015-05-13 莱芜钢铁集团电子有限公司 Gas consumption prediction model establishing method and device based on hot blast stove group
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CN107315845A (en) * 2016-06-12 2017-11-03 中国石油化工股份有限公司 Sulphur unit tail gas method up to standard
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CN109961187A (en) * 2019-03-27 2019-07-02 廊坊新奥泛能网络科技服务有限公司 ENERGY PLANNING method and ENERGY PLANNING system
CN117113858A (en) * 2023-10-23 2023-11-24 北京中环信科科技股份有限公司 Early warning method and device for hydrogen system
CN117113858B (en) * 2023-10-23 2024-02-06 北京中环信科科技股份有限公司 Early warning method and device for hydrogen system

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