CN103499349A - Medium-and-long-term forecasting method and medium-and-long-term forecasting system based on broadcast ephemeris parameter extrapolation - Google Patents

Medium-and-long-term forecasting method and medium-and-long-term forecasting system based on broadcast ephemeris parameter extrapolation Download PDF

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CN103499349A
CN103499349A CN201310450529.9A CN201310450529A CN103499349A CN 103499349 A CN103499349 A CN 103499349A CN 201310450529 A CN201310450529 A CN 201310450529A CN 103499349 A CN103499349 A CN 103499349A
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broadcast ephemeris
parameter
time length
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CN103499349B (en
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蔡成林
席超
韦照川
王利杰
邓克群
李志斌
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Guilin University of Electronic Technology
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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G01—MEASURING; TESTING
    • G01C—MEASURING DISTANCES, LEVELS OR BEARINGS; SURVEYING; NAVIGATION; GYROSCOPIC INSTRUMENTS; PHOTOGRAMMETRY OR VIDEOGRAMMETRY
    • G01C21/00—Navigation; Navigational instruments not provided for in groups G01C1/00 - G01C19/00
    • G01C21/24—Navigation; Navigational instruments not provided for in groups G01C1/00 - G01C19/00 specially adapted for cosmonautical navigation

Abstract

The invention discloses a medium-and-long-term forecasting method and a medium-and-long-term forecasting system based on broadcast ephemeris parameter extrapolation. The method comprises the following steps of constructing an ARMA model and a sliding window model by selecting broadcast ephemeris parameters within a certain time length according to broadcast ephemeris data; forecasting the broadcast ephemeris parameters within a certain time length in the future through the ARMA model and the sliding window model; calculating satellite orbit coordinates at the moment according to forecast values of the broadcast ephemeris parameters within the certain time length in the future. The system for implementing the method can simply and effectively forecast the satellite orbit coordinates; an error of a 25-day satellite orbit forecast of the GPS (global positioning system) satellite PRN02 for example is controlled within 150 meters, so that an ideal forecast effect can be obtained.

Description

Satellite orbit Medium-long Term Prediction method and system based on the extrapolation of broadcast ephemeris parameter
Technical field
The present invention relates to satellite navigation system Satellite track Medium-long Term Prediction technical field, be specifically related to a kind of satellite orbit Medium-long Term Prediction method and system based on the extrapolation of broadcast ephemeris parameter.
Background technology
Current GNSS GPS (Global Position System), the information such as satellite orbit are injected satellite by the short-time forecast result after all by ground, measuring the rail system and resolve.In order to prevent that wartime, surface facility was destroyed, the viability of enhancing system, the concept that the U.S. just proposed independent navigation as far back as 1984, realize autonomous orbit determination on star by inter-satellite link, precise distance measurement, this technology is applied at BLOCK IIR and subsequent satellites, and the GALILEO built and GLONASS during upgrading have also adopted this technology.
Independent navigation needs the satellite orbit data of ground forecast certain time length to be uploaded to satellite.Traditional orbit prediction method realizes orbit prediction by satellite is carried out to Dynamic Modeling, and as the optical pressure model, Neural network mixed model, add experience power model etc.These models are very effective to short-time forecast, but are applied to the track Medium-long Term Prediction, and the orbit prediction quality extends rapid variation in time, and the track Medium-long Term Prediction in independent navigation need to be explored new method.The independent navigation orbit determination that the U.S. proposes is based on range finding between star and realizes, the precision of orbit determination depends on distance accuracy between mechanical model accuracy and star.Because the stress model of satellite is very complicated, accurately set up the satellite stress model and relate to uranology, geodynamics, satellite subject and associated various interdisciplinary theories and technology.
Summary of the invention
In order to explore more simple and effective orbit prediction method, the broadcast ephemeris orbit parameter has been carried out to long-run analysis one by one, find that its variation has very strong regularity, Variation Features based on these periodicity and tendency, the invention provides a kind of medium-term and long-term orbit prediction method and system based on the extrapolation of satellite broadcasting ephemeris parameter.
Technical scheme of the present invention:
A kind of satellite orbit Medium-long Term Prediction method based on the extrapolation of broadcast ephemeris parameter comprises:
Utilize broadcast ephemeris data, choose the broadcast ephemeris parameter of certain time length and set up arma modeling;
Use arma modeling to carry out the broadcast ephemeris Parameters Forecasting in following certain time length;
Calculate this satellite orbit coordinate in this moment according to certain moment broadcast ephemeris Parameters Forecasting value in following certain time length.
A kind of satellite orbit Medium-long Term Prediction method based on the extrapolation of broadcast ephemeris parameter comprises:
Utilize broadcast ephemeris data, choose the broadcast ephemeris parameter of certain time length and set up arma modeling and sliding window model;
Use arma modeling and sliding window model to combine the broadcast ephemeris Parameters Forecasting carried out in following certain time length;
Calculate this satellite orbit coordinate in this moment according to certain moment broadcast ephemeris Parameters Forecasting value in following certain time length.
Described arma modeling is for forecast
Figure 2013104505299100002DEST_PATH_IMAGE002
,
Figure 2013104505299100002DEST_PATH_IMAGE004
,
Figure 2013104505299100002DEST_PATH_IMAGE006
,
Figure 2013104505299100002DEST_PATH_IMAGE008
,
Figure 2013104505299100002DEST_PATH_IMAGE010
,
Figure 2013104505299100002DEST_PATH_IMAGE012
,
Figure 2013104505299100002DEST_PATH_IMAGE014
,
Figure 2013104505299100002DEST_PATH_IMAGE016
,
Figure 2013104505299100002DEST_PATH_IMAGE018
with
Figure 2013104505299100002DEST_PATH_IMAGE020
parameter, described sliding window model is for forecast
Figure 2013104505299100002DEST_PATH_IMAGE022
with
Figure 2013104505299100002DEST_PATH_IMAGE024
parameter.
The broadcast ephemeris data that described broadcast ephemeris data adopts IGS to provide.
A kind of satellite orbit Medium-long Term Prediction system based on the extrapolation of broadcast ephemeris parameter comprises:
Utilize broadcast ephemeris data, the broadcast ephemeris parameter of choosing certain time length is set up the device of arma modeling and sliding window model;
Use the device of combining to carry out the broadcast ephemeris Parameters Forecasting in following certain time length of arma modeling or arma modeling and sliding window model;
Calculate the device of this satellite orbit coordinate in this moment according to certain moment broadcast ephemeris Parameters Forecasting value in following certain time length.
Beneficial effect of the present invention:
(1) the present invention does not relate to the advanced dynamic model of satellite, but take full advantage of the historical orbit observation data of its comparative maturity, it is a kind of simple and effective orbit prediction method, take gps satellite PRN02 as the Satellite Orbit Prediction error that example adopts the method to carry out 25 days is controlled in 150 meters, obtained the comparatively desirable value of forecasting.
(2) the present invention only needs orbit parameter is analyzed, and avoids the impact of other X factors, has simple and effectively replaced ubiquitous process of carrying out Satellite Orbit Prediction by the advanced dynamic modeling in the autonomous orbit determination method.
The accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 described satellite orbit parameter (
Figure 2013104505299100002DEST_PATH_IMAGE026
) situation of change.
Fig. 2 has described the processing procedure of arma modeling prediction orbit parameter.
Fig. 3 is sliding window model smoothing forecast schematic diagram.
Fig. 4 be satellite orbit parameter (
Figure 336666DEST_PATH_IMAGE026
) the prediction effect analogous diagram of 25 days.
Fig. 5 be satellite orbit parameter (
Figure 63926DEST_PATH_IMAGE004
) the prediction effect analogous diagram of 25 days.
Fig. 6 be satellite orbit parameter ( ) the prediction effect analogous diagram of 25 days.
Fig. 7 be satellite orbit parameter (
Figure 114239DEST_PATH_IMAGE024
) the prediction effect analogous diagram of 25 days.
Fig. 8 be satellite orbit parameter (
Figure 990928DEST_PATH_IMAGE008
) the prediction effect analogous diagram of 25 days.
Fig. 9 be satellite orbit parameter (
Figure 2013104505299100002DEST_PATH_IMAGE028
) the prediction effect analogous diagram of 25 days.
Figure 10 be satellite orbit parameter (
Figure 626440DEST_PATH_IMAGE010
) the prediction effect analogous diagram of 25 days.
Figure 11 be satellite orbit parameter ( ) the prediction effect analogous diagram of 25 days.
Figure 12 be satellite orbit parameter ( ) the prediction effect analogous diagram of 25 days.
figure 13 be satellite orbit parameter (
Figure 698935DEST_PATH_IMAGE016
) the prediction effect analogous diagram of 25 days.
Figure 14 be satellite orbit parameter (
Figure 502419DEST_PATH_IMAGE018
) the prediction effect analogous diagram of 25 days.
Figure 15 be satellite orbit parameter (
Figure 319065DEST_PATH_IMAGE020
) the prediction effect analogous diagram of 25 days.
Embodiment
GPS broadcast ephemeris parameter is broadcast once in every two hours.By each orbit parameter parameter of satellite broadcasting ephemeris is carried out to a large amount of statistical study, find that it all has very periodically strong and tendency.The position coordinates of satellite any time is all broadcast constantly with reference to constantly obtaining for benchmark, and with reference to the moment, the calculation accuracy of satellite position has determined the location compute precision in the whole motion process of satellite.Resolve equation according to the satellite orbit based on broadcast ephemeris known, satellite only needs with reference to location compute constantly ,
Figure 869126DEST_PATH_IMAGE004
,
Figure 454828DEST_PATH_IMAGE006
, ,
Figure 1664DEST_PATH_IMAGE022
,
Figure 89837DEST_PATH_IMAGE024
,
Figure 733308DEST_PATH_IMAGE010
,
Figure 130791DEST_PATH_IMAGE012
,
Figure 669833DEST_PATH_IMAGE014
,
Figure 810964DEST_PATH_IMAGE016
,
Figure 121991DEST_PATH_IMAGE018
,
Figure 955954DEST_PATH_IMAGE020
deng 12 orbit parameter values.
The broadcast ephemeris data that employing is issued from IGS official website, choose the data in-2012 on the 22nd 40 days on the 31st October of September in 2012 and carry out modeling, and the satellite orbit forecast following 25 days changes.And model prediction value and the satellite orbit parameter in-2012 on the 1st 25 days on the 25th November of November in 2012 are analyzed to verify the forecast precision of arma modeling.The issue of every 2 hours of broadcast ephemeris data once, so data be spaced apart 2h.The data length that is modeling is 480 epoch, and the data length of forecast was 300 epoch.
Fig. 1 has provided the variation tendency in orbit parameter sqrt (A) short-term (5 days) and long-term (100) sky, and Fig. 2 and Fig. 3 have provided respectively the treatment scheme of carrying out the arma modeling forecast and the schematic diagram that carries out the sliding window forecast.Fig. 4 to Figure 15 has provided respectively the model prediction result of Keplerian orbit parameter and perturbation parameter, is reflecting intuitively the forecast quality of model to orbit parameter.
Table 1 has provided the dimension of each orbit parameter; Table 2 has provided the prediction error of each parameter under different forecast durations; Table 3 has provided the impact (unit/rice) of the prediction error of each parameter under different forecast durations on orbital position.
The unit of each parameter of table 1.
Kepler orbit elements Unit Perturbation parameter Unit
sqrt(A) sqrt(m)
Figure 719642DEST_PATH_IMAGE010
 radians
Figure 602148DEST_PATH_IMAGE004
 dimensionless
Figure 16948DEST_PATH_IMAGE012
 radians
Figure 772546DEST_PATH_IMAGE006
 radians
Figure 272797DEST_PATH_IMAGE014
 meters
Figure 503534DEST_PATH_IMAGE008
 radians meters
Figure 151870DEST_PATH_IMAGE022
 radians
Figure 890150DEST_PATH_IMAGE018
 radians
radians
Figure 51321DEST_PATH_IMAGE020
 radians
The prediction error of each parameter under the different forecast of table 2. duration
Orbit parameter 1 day (RMS) 7 days (RMS) 15 days (RMS) 25 days (RMS)
Sqrt(A) 0.0009817 0.001107416 0.001154912 0.001170352
Figure 397989DEST_PATH_IMAGE004
 2.90E-08 2.05E-07 4.44E-07 1.25E-06
Figure 623565DEST_PATH_IMAGE006
 2.00E-07 6.07E-07 1.23E-06 6.52E-06
Figure 713881DEST_PATH_IMAGE008
 9.03E-07 2.70E-06 4.15E-06 6.06E-06
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
Figure 857396DEST_PATH_IMAGE010
 1.89E-07 1.15E-07 9.36E-08 8.20E-08
Figure 236556DEST_PATH_IMAGE012
 2.32E-08 1.42E-08 1.62E-08 2.58E-08
Figure 600541DEST_PATH_IMAGE014
 4.363610548 12.76013499 11.26938001 9.849503608
Figure 774164DEST_PATH_IMAGE016
 2.502429376 3.363472068 5.327543152 6.85431484
2.29E-07 2.62E-07 4.08E-07 5.28E-07
1.09E-07 5.92E-07 6.72E-07 5.56E-07
The impact (unit/rice) of the prediction error of each parameter on orbital position under the different forecast of table 3. duration
Orbit parameter 1d (RMS) 7d (RMS) 15d (RMS) 25d (RMS)
Sqrt(A) 10.0641 11.3529 11.8398 11.9981
Figure 297047DEST_PATH_IMAGE004
 1.4071 9.9469 21.5435 60.6517
Figure 156418DEST_PATH_IMAGE006
 3.3456 10.1539 20.5755 109.0668
Figure 575374DEST_PATH_IMAGE008
 23.8549 71.327 109.6323 160.0895
Figure 811183DEST_PATH_IMAGE022
 0 0 0 0
Figure 634914DEST_PATH_IMAGE024
 0 0 0 0
Figure 602870DEST_PATH_IMAGE010
 0.6262 0.381 0.3101 0.2717
Figure 761319DEST_PATH_IMAGE012
 0.3804 0.2328 0.2656 0.423
Figure 285972DEST_PATH_IMAGE014
 0.8643 2.5275 2.2322 1.951
Figure 213477DEST_PATH_IMAGE016
 2.4528 3.2968 5.222 6.7185
Figure 165383DEST_PATH_IMAGE018
 1.1983 1.371 2.1349 2.7628
Figure 811128DEST_PATH_IMAGE020
 2.8224 15.3292 17.4007 14.397
The acting in conjunction result 21.1843 48.8493 76.5647 142.1994
As shown in table 2 and table 3, Kepler orbit elements seems very little Parameters Forecasting error will cause the deviation that satellite orbit is very large.The impact of perturbation parameter is generally in several meters to tens meters scopes, less on the impact of orbit error.Other several orbital trackings are less relatively for the prediction error factor of influence of kepler parameters sqrt (A), 10 meters left and right.Due to orbit parameter
Figure 894401DEST_PATH_IMAGE022
with
Figure 879675DEST_PATH_IMAGE024
within can being controlled at forecast fully, therefore in fact crucial to the forecast of orbit parameter is to orbital tracking
Figure 251750DEST_PATH_IMAGE004
,
Figure 135524DEST_PATH_IMAGE006
with
Figure 251247DEST_PATH_IMAGE008
forecast, its forecast precision has directly been determined to the forecast precision of satellite orbit.As table 2 has provided the prediction error values of each orbit parameter under the different forecast such as 1 day, 7 days, 15 days and 25 days durations, table 3 is corresponding to table 2, provided the prediction error orbit error that impact brings separately of each parameter under the difference forecast durations such as 1 day, 7 days, 15 days and 25 days and the orbit error that all parameter error combined actions bring.As can be seen from Table 3, adopt relevant forecasting model to be forecast the satellite broadcasting ephemeris parameter, and calculate the orbit coordinate of satellite on the basis of forecast, the orbit prediction precision of 1 day is 20 meters left and right, within 25 days, also can be controlled in 150 meters, obtain the comparatively desirable value of forecasting.Because the broadcast ephemeris parameter itself contains certain error, broadcast ephemeris resolves the satellite orbit and the IGS precise ephemeris that obtain the error of several meters, so there is certain error in the Satellite Orbit Prediction based on the orbit parameter forecast, is understandable.Be it can also be seen that orbital tracking simultaneously by table 3
Figure 904077DEST_PATH_IMAGE008
the satellite orbital error that independent prediction error causes is greater than the error that each orbit parameter error acting in conjunction brings, and the position coordinates precision of this explanation satellite is by the coefficient result of each parameter but is not the stack of the site error brought of each parameter error.

Claims (5)

1. the satellite orbit Medium-long Term Prediction method based on broadcast ephemeris parameter extrapolation comprises:
Utilize broadcast ephemeris data, choose the broadcast ephemeris parameter of certain time length and set up arma modeling;
Use arma modeling to carry out the broadcast ephemeris Parameters Forecasting in following certain time length;
Calculate this satellite orbit coordinate in this moment according to certain moment broadcast ephemeris Parameters Forecasting value in following certain time length.
2. the satellite orbit Medium-long Term Prediction method based on broadcast ephemeris parameter extrapolation comprises:
Utilize broadcast ephemeris data, choose the broadcast ephemeris parameter of certain time length and set up arma modeling and sliding window model;
Use arma modeling and sliding window model to combine the broadcast ephemeris Parameters Forecasting carried out in following certain time length;
Calculate this satellite orbit coordinate in this moment according to certain moment broadcast ephemeris Parameters Forecasting value in following certain time length.
3. method according to claim 2, wherein said arma modeling is for forecast
Figure 2013104505299100001DEST_PATH_IMAGE001
,
Figure 606172DEST_PATH_IMAGE002
,
Figure 2013104505299100001DEST_PATH_IMAGE003
,
Figure 773979DEST_PATH_IMAGE004
,
Figure 2013104505299100001DEST_PATH_IMAGE005
, ,
Figure 2013104505299100001DEST_PATH_IMAGE007
,
Figure 263046DEST_PATH_IMAGE008
,
Figure 2013104505299100001DEST_PATH_IMAGE009
with parameter, wherein said sliding window model is for forecast
Figure 2013104505299100001DEST_PATH_IMAGE011
with
Figure 707727DEST_PATH_IMAGE012
parameter.
4. method according to claim 1 and 2, the broadcast ephemeris data that wherein said broadcast ephemeris data adopts IGS to provide.
5. the satellite orbit Medium-long Term Prediction system based on broadcast ephemeris parameter extrapolation comprises:
Utilize broadcast ephemeris data, the broadcast ephemeris parameter of choosing certain time length is set up the device of arma modeling and sliding window model;
Use the device of combining to carry out the broadcast ephemeris Parameters Forecasting in following certain time length of arma modeling or arma modeling and sliding window model;
Calculate the device of this satellite orbit coordinate in this moment according to certain moment broadcast ephemeris Parameters Forecasting value in following certain time length.
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