Detailed description of the invention
Below, with detailed description of the invention, the present invention is described further.
As shown in Figure 1, living area, a kind of power station electrical energy consumption analysis method, it comprises the following steps:
Step 1: obtain the historical measured data in living area, historical data and current data. To thisA little data carry out obtaining statistics after pretreatment. The historical measured data bag in wherein said living areaDraw together voltage, electric current and power factor (PF), the historical measured data in living area is by putting HIOKI3196 electricity dayCan quality/Electric Energy Analytic Instrument measure, due to put day the HIOKI3196 quality of power supply/Electric Energy Analytic Instrument is professional measurement device, costly, can not all install for a long timeIn power station. By historical living area measured data by calculating historical living area power consumption.In the database of described historical data by power station side, derive, comprise historical rainfall, temperature,Generated energy and directly station-service electric weight. Current data comprise current rainfall, temperature, generated energy andDirectly station-service electric weight, wherein rainfall, temperature record are provided by power station side's monitoring record, generatingAmount and directly station-service electric weight are from the generating daily record of power station side.
Step 2: determine the Optimal Temperature turning point of being correlated with.
Recognize living area power consumption by analyzing the historical measured data in living area and historical dataY and the linear dependency relation of temperature T emp. If there is some temperature spot Temp=T, whenWhen Temp > T, along with the rising of temperature, power consumption Y increases, living area power consumption Y and temperatureDegree Temp becomes positive correlation, has corr[Y (Temp > T)] > 0; In the time of Temp < T, along with temperatureDecline, living area power consumption Y increase, living area power consumption Y becomes negative with temperature T empPass relation, has corr[Y (Temp > T)] < 0, this temperature spot Temp=T is its relevant turning point.
(1) determine relevant turning point territory.
Produce the curve map that historical living area power consumption and historical temperature form, find out curveIn figure, the curve of historical living area power consumption is corresponding with the curve intersection part institute of historical temperatureTemperature range, determine relevant turning point territory (T1, T2) by the concept in relevant turning point territory.
(2) determine optimum relevant turning point.
In relevant turning point territory, all have corr[P (Temp > is k)] > 0,Corr[P (Temp > is k)] < 0. Only at certain some place, the coefficient correlation amplitude of variation maximum before and after it,Also will there is maximum variation in corresponding living area power consumption and the correlation of temperature. This enforcementExample utilizes following formula to determine optimum relevant turning point:
First, on average get a m in relevant turning point territory, the temperature that each point is corresponding is:
Utilize least square method, obtain respectively front territory phase relation corr[Y (the Temp > T of m pointi)]With converse domain coefficient correlation corr[Y (Temp < Ti)]. Then before and after asking, territory coefficient correlation is poor, finds out a littleMeet following condition:
max(corr[Y(Temp>Ti)]-corr[Y(Temp<Ti)])(2)This point is optimum relevant turning point.
Step 3: set up living area electric model.
From living area electricity consumption Analysis of key influential factors, living area power consumption yLiving area power consumptionWithTime be subject to environment minimum temperature x1, rainfall x2, generated energy x3Impact. Its mathematic(al) representation form asShown in following formula:
yLiving area power consumption=f(x1,x2,x3)(3)
Consider the impact of various potential impact factors on power consumption, in expression formula, introduce constantItem c, expression formula becomes following form:
yLiving area power consumption=f(x1,x2,x3,ci)(4)
Suppose in step 2, the temperature of trying to achieve optimum turning point is Tp, its living area electricity consumptionAmount expression formula is as follows:
Step 4: use and improve least square method and solve living area power consumption and each influence factorRelation.
As temperature x1<TpTime, taking week as unit calculate living area electricity consumption, model solution process asUnder:
4.1: initialize: generate at random the particle of some in the septuple space, and given grainInitial position, speed and the historical optimal location of son. In population, i particle is threeVector is respectively:
Current position: ci=(ci1,ci2,ci3,ci4,ci5,ci6,ci7)(6)
Historical optimal location: pi=(pi1,pi2,pi3,pi4,pi5,pi6,pi7)(7)
Speed: vi=(vi1,vi2,vi3,vi4,vi5,vi6,vi7)(8)
In addition, the desired positions searching up to now in whole population is labeled as:
pg=(pg1,pg2,pg3,pg4,pg5,pg6,pg7)(9)
4.2: set up coefficient matrix. To each particle, according to its locus, set up as followsEquation group:
θ0ci1+θ1x111+θ2x112+θ3x113=y11
θ0ci2+θ1x121+θ2x122+θ3x123=y12
θ0ci7+θ1x171+θ2x172+θ3x173=y17
θ0ci1+θ1x211+θ2x212+θ3x213=y21(10)
θ0ci7+θ1x271+θ2x272+θ3x273=y27
θ0ci1+θ1x311+θ2x312+θ3x313=y31
θ0ci7+θ1xn71+θ2xn72+θ3xn73=yn7
X in formula1ijMeet x1ij<Tp,θ0For the influence factor of latency to living area power consumptionCoefficient, θ1For the influence factor coefficient of temperature to living area power consumption, θ2For rainfall is to lifeThe influence factor coefficient of district's power consumption, θ3For the influence factor system of generated energy to living area power consumptionNumber.
4.3: first, utilize least square method to solve coefficient matrix. Equation in formula (10)Group, for overdetermined equation, can be tried to achieve coefficient matrix θ least-squares estimation in above formula by least square methodFor:
θ'=(ΧTΧ)-1ΧTY(11)
Wherein
Then, evaluate the fitness of i particle, calculated by following formula:
4.4: upgrade optimal location: first, to i particle, relatively particle fitness ΦiWithThe fitness Φ of its individual optimal valuepi, individual initial optimal value fitness is by given at firstHistorical optimal location determine, be calculated as follows:
If Φi<Φpi, the historical optimal location using current point as this particle, otherwise,Historical optimal location remains unchanged. Then more overall particle fitness, if Φpi<Φpg,Use piReplace current pg。
4.5: more new particle: for each particle, its d dimension (1≤d≤7) according to asLower equation changes:
vid=vid+c1×rand(1)×(pid-cid)+c2×rand(1)×(pgd-cid)(14)
cid=cid+vid(15)
Wherein vidRepresent the value of i the d dimension in particle rapidity vector, pidRepresent theThe value of the d dimension in i the historical optimal location vector of particle, cidRepresent that i particle is currentThe value of the d dimension in position vector, aceleration pulse c1 and c2 are two nonnegative values, these twoAceleration pulse makes particle have that oneself sums up and to the ability of excellent individual study in colony, therebyTo oneself historical optimum point and colony in or global optimum's point in codomain close. C1Be generally equal to 2 with c2. Rand (1) is the random number in the interior value of scope [0,1]. UserConventionally can set a Vmax value, be used for the maximum of maximum speed limit. The speed of particle is limitIn a scope [Vmax, Vmax],, after more new formula is carried out, whether judge speedIn limited field, if in limited field, carry out formula 15, if transfinited,Upgrade position according to maximum constraints speed.
4.6: end condition: in the time that population converges to the neighborhood of certain diameter, and under meetingWhen row relational expression, finish to calculate, otherwise rebound step 2 repetitive cycling is until meet final conditionTill.
C in formulaik,cjkFor required particle position, ε is little positive number given in advance;
As temperature x1>TpTime, repeating step 4.1-4.6, wherein in step 4.2, x1ijExpireFoot x1ij>Tp。
Comprehensive step 1,2,3, can obtain complete living area electric model. Use this mouldType, can calculate living area power consumption according to the generated energy in power station, temperature and rainfall.
Step 5: according to current temperature, rainfall and generated energy data, utilize in step 3 and buildVertical model, can calculate the current living area power consumption in power station, reaches living area is usedThe object of electric quantity metering.
The present embodiment can also obtain historical temperature, rainfall, generated energy and direct station serviceAfter amount data, data are carried out to pretreatment and obtain statistics, utilize these data, according to stepIn rapid 4 various quarters of having set up, the living area power consumption in each week is calculated in living area with electric model. SoThe proportion of rear calculating living area power consumption in direct station service, by data scrubbing technology,To living area power consumption in the various quarters and direct station service ratio range (a%, b%).
The application of the present embodiment is as follows: utilize the direct station-service reporting in the certain hour section of power stationElectric weight, the living area power consumption of integrating step 5 gained, the living area of calculating in this time period is usedElectric weight is with direct station service than c%, and ratio is examined living area electricity consumption situation thus. If c < aIllustrate that real life district power consumption is greater than calculating power consumption, living area power consumption is relatively wasted,Need to strengthen energy-saving and emission-reduction work; If c > a illustrates that the electricity consumption of real life district is in normal range (NR),And c is larger, show that energy conservation does better; If c > b, may there be two kinds of situation one:There is new energy-saving potential point, living area electricity consumption was reduced more to some extent; Its two existence is usedElectricity equipment, makes some equipment fail normally to move or underrun, thereby makes power consumptionReduce. For the previous case, can be by the living area electricity consumption situation in this time period of combing,Find out new energy-saving potential point and developed and improve, will use living area for the second situationElectricity equipment is tested, and finds faulty equipment, gets rid of potential safety hazard.
Generally speaking, the core scheme of above-described embodiment is: from generated energy, temperature, rainfall andThe power consumption in living area is sought to estimate in other potential four aspects of influence factor. First comprehensiveConsider the impact of every influence factor on power consumption. By analyzing the historical data of each influence factorChange and the variation of power consumption, determine the relation of each factor and generated energy; And then set up and liveDistrict's electric model; Then utilize improved least square method to the model in different temperature rangesSolve coefficient matrix and constant term; Then obtain electricity consumption according to model and the historical data set upPerformance assessment criteria---the living area power consumption and direct station service ratio of amount; Utilize the model of having set upCalculate living area power consumption; Finally calculate performance assessment criteria, examination living area electricity consumption situation, according toCheck gives corresponding evaluation to living area electricity consumption, and takes corresponding administration of energy conservation measure.
For a person skilled in the art, can be according to technical scheme described above and structureThink, make other various corresponding changes and distortion, and all these changes and distortionWithin all should belonging to the protection domain of the claims in the present invention.