CN103413034A - Increased water quantity computation system and method based on water regulation and conversation measures - Google Patents
Increased water quantity computation system and method based on water regulation and conversation measures Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides an increased water quantity computation system and method based on water regulation and conversation measures. The system comprises a user management module, a data management module, a data standardization module, an increased water quantity module and a computation result output and display module which are connected in sequence. The increased water quantity module comprises a standardized data import sub-module, a prediction model selection sub-module, a parameter selection sub-module, a sample training sub-module, an increased water quantity sub-module and an error analysis sub-module. According to the invention, defects that after the construction of the conventional water conservancy projects, the computation load is heavy, the measurement error is large and the operation is difficult can be solved. Aiming at the situation that the conventional technology cannot reasonably and effectively assess the construction effect of the water conservancy projects, the system and the method provided by the invention can comprehensively and reasonably assess the construction effect of the water conservancy projects.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to water resources management and assessment technique field, relate to a kind of increase sluicing quantity System and method for, relate in particular to a kind of computing system of increase sluicing quantity based on water transfer and water saving measures and method.
Background technology
Water is the source of life and economic activity, and it is exactly oasis that water is arranged, and anhydrous is desert, and the ecosystem is very fragile.At the NORTHWEST CHINA endorheic drainage, many river basin ecological environment are mainly because of the drought and water shortage severe exacerbation, and because the middle reaches water is excessive, downstream river course stops, and the river lower reaches is dry, causes ecocrisis to occur.These a large amount of vegetation in continental river downstream are withered, desertification aggravation, the important sandstorm source place of even becoming Northern Part of China had.Between nearest more than 10 years, along with enhancing and the expanding economy of the ecological awareness, Chinese Government drops into huge fund, successively these inland rivers is launched to administer, and therefore lower reaches lake, river also is restored.
The effect that these river improvement measures are implemented is how, can with increase sluicing quantity the number estimate, increase sluicing quantity refers to implements the amount of water to be discharged increased after water transfer and water-saving engineering.
Through extensive retrieval, find also there is no at present the patent of invention about the increase sluicing quantity computing method both at home and abroad.Existing research mainly concentrates on typical irrigated area Calculation Method for Water-saving Quantity (Luo Yuli, Jiang Bingzhou, Liu Xifeng, the Calculation Method for Water-saving Quantity of Middle Reaches Irrigation District of Heihe River Mainstream pre-test, water-saving irrigation, 2008(3): 9-12), (Cheng Jianmin. the computational analysis of Irrigation Area in Middle Reaches of Heihe River water-saving amount, Water Conservancy in Gansu water power technology, 2002, 38(2): 141-143), (Wang Jingui, Cheng Wuqun, Meng Xiao etc., the research people the Yellow River of wells connecting with canals irrigated area Calculation Method for Water-saving Quantity, 2008, 30(5): 56-57, 65), just from part, consider the water-saving amount of individual event hydraulic engineering, do not have the overall thinking hydraulic engineering to implement the impact of front and back on increase sluicing quantity.Existing increase sluicing quantity computing method, mainly that clean water-saving amount by the individual event hydraulic engineering deducts the channel water delivery loss, the simple superposition of the increase sluicing quantity just each individual event water saving measures produced, and measurements and calculations method complicated operation, calculated amount is large and error is larger.Therefore, need badly and a kind ofly can administer in the recent period implementation result by rational evaluation China endorheic drainage, analyze the system and method for the enforcement of water transfer and water-saving engineering on the impact of downstream increase sluicing quantity.
Summary of the invention
In order to address the above problem, the present invention proposes a kind of System and method for that can automatically calculate and show the hydraulic engineering increase sluicing quantity based on water transfer and water saving measures.
The technical scheme that the present invention specifically takes is as follows:
A kind of computing system of increase sluicing quantity based on water transfer and water saving measures, comprise user management module, data management module, data normalization module, increase sluicing quantity computing module and result of calculation output and display module, wherein:
User management module, revise for leading subscriber authority, interpolation or deletion user, user cipher;
Data management module, comprise data importing submodule, data query and management submodule and data pre-service submodule, for measured data is imported to database, and also can enquiry of historical data; Wherein user management module, revise for leading subscriber authority, interpolation or deletion user, user cipher; The inquiry of historical data and administration module, for inquiring about and managing the master data in basin in history, comprise that runoff, precipitation, evaporation, population change, economic structure (GDP and industrial structure change data), cultivated area, water-saving amount and each section of basin carry out the water yield; Data pre-service submodule, carry out pre-service for the data by database, singular value and the missing values of data processed, to reject the wrong or special sample in data;
The data normalization module, it carries out standardization for the data to pretreated, makes raw data all be converted to index without dimension test and appraisal value, and namely each desired value all is on same quantity rank, can carry out the comprehensive test analysis;
The increase sluicing quantity computing module, comprise that the standardized data connected successively imports submodule, forecast model chooser module, parameter chooser module, sample training submodule, increase sluicing quantity calculating sub module and error analysis submodule, for concrete hydraulic engineering is implemented to later increase sluicing quantity, calculate, draw the increase sluicing quantity value;
Result of calculation output and display module, be used to exporting final calculation result.
The above-mentioned computing system of the increase sluicing quantity based on water transfer and water saving measures, described database comprises upland water amount, middle reaches quantity of precipitation, middle reaches GDP growth, middle reaches population growth, downstream amount of water to be discharged.
The above-mentioned computing system of increase sluicing quantity based on water transfer and water saving measures, described increase sluicing quantity computing module comprise that successively the standardized data connected imports submodule, forecast model chooser module, parameter and chooses submodule, sample training submodule, increase sluicing quantity calculating sub module and error analysis submodule.
The above-mentioned computing system of increase sluicing quantity based on water transfer and water saving measures, described result of calculation, within the error allowed band, display the formal intuition of result of calculation with chart, and result of calculation are passed to the calculation result data storehouse again; If do not meet error condition, again select forecast model, recalculate increase sluicing quantity, until satisfy condition.
The above-mentioned computing method of increase sluicing quantity based on water transfer and water saving measures, adopt support vector machine (SVM) principle to calculate theoretical amount of water to be discharged, comprises the steps:
Step1: by the upland water amount X of each year
1, middle reaches quantity of precipitation X
2, middle reaches GDP growth X
3, middle reaches population growth X
4And downstream amount of water to be discharged Y is as sample set, i.e. a G
i=(X
1i, X
2i, X
3i, X
4i), structure index set matrix, as shown in the formula:
In formula, Y is downstream amount of water to be discharged (hundred million m
3), X
1For upland water amount (hundred million m
3), X
2For middle reaches quantity of precipitation (mm), X
3For middle reaches GDP growth (hundred million yuan), X
4For middle reaches population growth (ten thousand people), n is a year number, and m is the index number;
Step2: to the upland water amount X in sample set
1, middle reaches quantity of precipitation X
2, middle reaches GDP growth X
3, middle reaches population growth X
4Carry out pre-service and standardization, choose the set of data samples of front N(N<n) year as training sample, will after (set of data samples of n-N) year is as test samples;
Step3: according to the support vector machine Regression, in conjunction with the increase sluicing quantity analysis of Influential Factors, build the increase sluicing quantity forecast model based on the support vector machine Regression, comprising choosing of kernel function and model parameter;
Step4: according to the parameter of the kernel function of choosing and model, calculate the hydraulic engineering increase sluicing quantity by the increase sluicing quantity computing module, draw result of calculation;
Step5: by the error analysis submodule error of calculation, estimate based on the performance of support vector machine increase sluicing quantity computation model building.If performance does not reach requirement, can re-establish forecast model by revising the methods such as model parameter, kernel function type, until meet the demands.
Above-mentioned increase sluicing quantity computing method, described Step2 standardization is calculated as follows:
Above-mentioned increase sluicing quantity computing method, described Step4 model parameter choosing method, adopt Chaos particle swarm optimization algorithm (Chaos Particle Swarm Optimization, CPSO).
The above-mentioned computing method of increase sluicing quantity based on water transfer and water saving measures, the described error analysis of step Step5, the contrast support vector machine is calculated the result contrast of increase sluicing quantity and the original increase sluicing quantity computing method gained of gained, the rationality of analytical model and using value.
Above-mentioned increase sluicing quantity computing method, the described error analysis contrast of described Step5 support vector machine are calculated the result contrast of increase sluicing quantity and the original increase sluicing quantity computing method gained of gained, the rationality of analytical model and using value.
The invention has the advantages that: (1) the present invention considers the impact of the variation of basin natural conditions in the hydraulic engineering implementation process (precipitation, runoff etc.) and social economy (population, GDP etc.) condition on increase sluicing quantity, build and consider multifactorial hydraulic engineering increase sluicing quantity computing system and method, can estimate more reasonably and comprehensively the effect that hydraulic engineering is implemented; (2) utilize computer technology will calculate standardization, precision, make these computing method possess good operability and reproducibility, the increase sluicing quantity after in order to be used for, different times, different hydraulic engineering being implemented calculates.
The accompanying drawing explanation
By Figure of description and the embodiment that is used from subsequently explanation the present invention some principle with Figure of description one, the further feature that the present invention has and advantage will become clear or more specifically be illustrated.
Fig. 1 is the increase sluicing quantity computing system structural representation that the present invention is based on water transfer and water saving measures.
Fig. 2 is that the present invention utilizes the increase sluicing quantity computing module to calculate the process flow diagram of increase sluicing quantity value.
Fig. 3 is increase sluicing quantity result of calculation figure in the embodiment of the present invention.
Should understand, Figure of description might not show concrete structure of the present invention pari passu, and be used to the n-lustrative feature that some principle of the present invention is described, also can take the technique of painting of slightly simplifying in Figure of description.Specific design feature of the present invention disclosed herein for example comprises that concrete size, direction, position and profile will be partly will be applied and the environment of use is determined by concrete.
In several accompanying drawings of Figure of description, identical Reference numeral means the identical or part that is equal to of the present invention.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with river basins, administer in the recent period the concrete implementing measure of planning, technical scheme of the present invention is further elaborated.
The about 928km of this river total length, this river is upstream more than the first gorge, and the long 313km in river course is the Main Runoff Generating Area in this river, and vegetation is better, is mainly pastoral area; Between the first gorge, gorge to the second, be middle reaches, the long 204km in river course, this zone is the Important Agricultural district, but arid is serious, mainly relies on this river to supply water; The second gorge is following is downstream, and long 411km ，Gai district, river course weather is very dry, and vegetation sparse is the arid area of Desert of Gobi around natural oases.Since the sixties in 20th century, this bank zone economic society fast development, upper, middle reaches water sharply increases, and the contradiction of supply and demand for the water resource aggravation causes this lower reaches of river zone discharge reduction, the oasis atrophy, ecologic environment sharply worsens.
The recent administration project in these river basins is by this river basins water transfer and improvement, improves Ecological Environment of Upper Reaches, controls middle reaches water of productive use amount, increases the water yield of coming in downstream, thereby effectively contain the degradating trend of this river ecological environment.The main contents of administering comprise: in the upstream in this river, mainly carry out grassland fences and wildwood fencing engineering, improve Ecological Environment of Upper Reaches and water source self-restraint ability; Middle reaches are mainly by water transfer and transformation on economy of water cousumption, to increase the amount of water to be discharged in this river; The ecological management engineering is implemented in downstream.These river basins were through water transfer and the improvement of 2000～2009 years, and Ecological Environment of Upper Reaches improves, and middle reaches produce and Water Consumption in Agriculture is effectively controlled, and entering the downstream water yield increases year by year, has effectively contained the degradating trend of this lower reaches of river ecologic environment.
Below in conjunction with the improvement situation of these river basins, set forth increase sluicing quantity measuring and calculating principle and device based on water transfer and water saving measures.According to the actual conditions in this river, choose respectively the first gorge section and the second gorge section.
Fig. 1 is the increase sluicing quantity computing system structural representation that the present invention is based on water transfer and water saving measures.Based on the increase sluicing quantity computing system of water transfer and water saving measures, comprise the user management module, data importing module, data preprocessing module, data normalization module, increase sluicing quantity computing module and result of calculation output and the display module that connect successively, wherein:
User management module, revise for leading subscriber authority, interpolation or deletion user, user cipher;
Data management module, be used for the data in interpolation and each time of management database and the data in database are carried out to pre-service, this data management module comprises data importing submodule, data query and management submodule and the data pre-service submodule connected successively, wherein, the data importing module is for importing database by measured data, and database comprises upland water amount, middle reaches quantity of precipitation, middle reaches GDP growth, middle reaches population growth and downstream amount of water to be discharged; For inquiring about and managing the master data in basin in history, comprise that runoff, precipitation, evaporation, population change, economic structure (GDP and industrial structure change data), cultivated area, water-saving amount and each section of basin carry out the water yield; Data preprocessing module, carry out pre-service for the data by database, singular value and the missing values of data processed, to reject the wrong or special sample in data;
The data normalization module, it carries out standardization for the data to pretreated, makes raw data all be converted to index without dimension test and appraisal value, and namely each desired value all is on same quantity rank, can carry out the comprehensive test analysis;
The increase sluicing quantity computing module, for being implemented to later increase sluicing quantity, concrete hydraulic engineering calculates, draw the increase sluicing quantity value, wherein the increase sluicing quantity computing module comprises that successively the standardized data connected imports submodule, forecast model chooser module, parameter and chooses submodule, sample training submodule, increase sluicing quantity calculating sub module and error analysis submodule.
Result of calculation output and display module, export final calculation result for the mode with chart and figure, and this final calculation result passed to the calculation result data storehouse.
Concrete flow process based on the increase sluicing quantity computing method of water transfer and water saving measures is:
(1) data importing
With reference to the data that local statistical yearbook and in-site measurement are collected, comprise that the first gorge carrys out the data such as the water yield, the second gorge amount of water to be discharged, middle reaches annual precipitation, population, GDP, by the data importing module by the data importing database.In addition, also can carry out to data the operations such as additions and deletions and renewal.
(2) data pre-service
Data preprocessing module is mainly to processing such as the singular value rejecting of data, missing values.Table 1 is data after pretreatment.
Table 1 river basins increase sluicing quantity calculates each basic data (after pre-service)
(3) data normalization is processed
The data normalization processing module is carried out standardization to pretreated each data, in Table 2.
Table 2 river basins increase sluicing quantity calculates each data (after standardization)
(4) increase sluicing quantity calculates
Fig. 2 is that the present invention utilizes the increase sluicing quantity computing module to calculate the process flow diagram of increase sluicing quantity value.Wherein, utilizing the increase sluicing quantity computing module to implement later increase sluicing quantity to concrete hydraulic engineering calculates, draw the increase sluicing quantity value, wherein the increase sluicing quantity computing module comprises that standardized data imports submodule, forecast model chooser module, parameter and chooses submodule, sample training submodule, increase sluicing quantity calculating sub module and error analysis submodule.
Step1: utilize standardized data to import submodule the standardized data of table 2 is imported, according to the standardized data of table 2, by the upland water amount X of each year
1, middle reaches quantity of precipitation X
2, middle reaches GDP growth X
3, middle reaches population growth X
4And downstream amount of water to be discharged Y is as sample set, i.e. a G
i=(X
1i, X
2i, X
3i, X
4i), structure index set matrix, as shown in the formula:
In formula, Y is downstream amount of water to be discharged (hundred million m
3), X
1For upland water amount (hundred million m
3), X
2For middle reaches quantity of precipitation (mm), X
3For middle reaches GDP growth (hundred million yuan), X
4For middle reaches population growth (ten thousand people), n is a year number, and m is the index number, m=4 herein, and n=23, the value of m and n, only as example, also can be chosen the value that other are applicable in other embodiments.
Step2: choose the set of data samples of front N as training sample and N<n, using the set of data samples of rear n-N as test samples, for example, choose the set of data samples of first 18 years (1990～2007) as training sample, using the set of data samples of latter 5 years (2008～2012) as test samples, but the invention is not restricted to this, also can choose any other suitable value, in the sample training submodule to the upland water amount X in sample set
1, middle reaches quantity of precipitation X
2, middle reaches GDP growth X
3, middle reaches population growth X
4Carry out pre-service and standardization;
Step3: utilize support vector machine principle (SVM) to build the increase sluicing quantity computation model of increase sluicing quantity calculating sub module.By calculating, compare, its Kernel Function is chosen the radial basis kernel function.The expression formula of radial basis kernel function is:
K(x,x
i)=exp(-||x-x
i||
2/2σ
2)
Increase sluicing quantity calculate supporting vector machine model parameter (C, ε, σ) choose the precision that can largely affect model, the error of ε control function match wherein, thereby control number and the Generalization Ability of support vector, the selection of C, σ directly has influence on computational accuracy, to this, select Chaos particle swarm optimization algorithm (Chaos Particle Swarm Optimization, CPSO) to carry out preferably the parameter of model.By the parameter to a large amount of, test, finally select parameter as follows: C=100, ε=0.001, σ=14.
Step4: error calculated analysis.
The increase sluicing quantity that utilizes model to calculate is: Z=Y '-Y
Wherein, Z is the increase sluicing quantity that model calculates, and Y is the theoretical amount of water to be discharged that utilizes the downstream section of supporting vector machine model calculating, and Y ' is the amount of water to be discharged of the downstream section of actual measurement.
Utilize traditional increase sluicing quantity Computing Principle calculating gained increase sluicing quantity to be:
Z '=Δ W
Work increases+ Δ W
Non-work increases+ Δ W
Tune increases
Wherein, Z ' calculates the increase sluicing quantity of gained, Δ W for classic method
Work increasesFor the engineering measure increase sluicing quantity, Δ W
Non-work increasesFor non-engineering measure increase sluicing quantity, Δ W
Tune increasesFor the Operation Measures increase sluicing quantity.
Supporting vector machine model through increase sluicing quantity calculates, and result of calculation is as follows.
Table 3 downstream section amount of water to be discharged result of calculation
| Time | Y | Y′ | Z | Z′ | |
| 2008 | 9.18 | 11.82 | 2.64 | 2.87 | 8.01% |
| 2009 | 9.12 | 11.98 | 2.86 | 3.04 | 5.92% |
| 2010 | 7.54 | 9.57 | 2.03 | 2.19 | 7.31% |
| 2011 | 8.52 | 11.27 | 2.75 | 2.96 | 7.09% |
| 2012 | 8.32 | 11.13 | 2.81 | 2.94 | 4.42% |
| Mean value | 8.54 | 11.15 | 2.62 | 2.80 | 6.50% |
Then, by the error analysis submodule error of calculation, the performance based on support vector machine increase sluicing quantity computation model is estimated.If performance does not reach requirement, can re-establish forecast model by revising the methods such as model parameter, kernel function type, until meet the demands.
(5) result of calculation is showed and output
The result of calculation that represents increase sluicing quantity by the form of figure and form, in Table 3 and Fig. 3.As can be seen from Table 3, the increase sluicing quantity that utilizes method of the present invention to calculate gained is compared with the result that classic method is calculated gained, and average relative error only has 6.50%.And this method is simple to operate, computational accuracy is high, and is easy to promote, and can be used as a kind of evaluation method to the hydraulic engineering implementation result.
Claims (13)
1. the computing system of the increase sluicing quantity based on water transfer and water saving measures, is characterized in that, described system comprises data management module, data normalization module, increase sluicing quantity computing module and result of calculation output and the display module connected successively, wherein:
Data management module, its data for interpolation and each time of management database are also carried out pre-service to the data in database;
The data normalization module, it carries out standardization for the data to pretreated, makes raw data all be converted to index without dimension test and appraisal value, and namely each desired value all is on same quantity rank, can carry out the comprehensive test analysis;
The increase sluicing quantity computing module, it calculates to calculate the increase sluicing quantity value for the increase sluicing quantity after hydraulic engineering is implemented;
Result of calculation output and display module, it exports described increase sluicing quantity value for the mode with chart and figure.
2. the computing system of the increase sluicing quantity based on water transfer and water saving measures according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, described system also comprises user management module, and described user management module is for leading subscriber authority, interpolation or delete the user, user cipher is revised.
3. the computing system of the increase sluicing quantity based on water transfer and water saving measures according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, described data management module comprise successively connect for the data importing submodule that measured data imported to database, for data query and the management submodule of the data of inquiry and management database and carry out pretreated data pre-service submodule for the data to database.
4. the computing system of the increase sluicing quantity based on water transfer and water saving measures according to claim 1, is characterized in that, described database comprises upland water amount, middle reaches quantity of precipitation, middle reaches GDP growth, middle reaches population growth and downstream amount of water to be discharged.
5. the computing system of the increase sluicing quantity based on water transfer and water saving measures according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, described increase sluicing quantity computing module comprises that successively the standardized data connected imports submodule, forecast model chooser module, parameter and chooses submodule, sample training submodule, increase sluicing quantity calculating sub module and error analysis submodule.
6. computing method of the increase sluicing quantity based on water transfer and water saving measures comprise:
By data management module, obtain the data in pretreated required time;
According to the index normalizing parameter that the normalizing parameter database provides, the data in described pretreated required time are carried out to standardization;
By the increase sluicing quantity computing module, calculate the increase sluicing quantity value;
In the mode of form or figure, export described increase sluicing quantity value.
7. the computing method of the increase sluicing quantity based on water transfer and water saving measures according to claim 6, is characterized in that, the described step that calculates the increase sluicing quantity value by the increase sluicing quantity computing module comprises:
(1) by the upland water amount X of each year
1, middle reaches quantity of precipitation X
2, middle reaches GDP growth X
3, middle reaches population growth X
4And downstream amount of water to be discharged Y is as sample set, i.e. a G
i=(X
1i, X
2i, X
3i, X
4i), structure index set matrix is as follows:
Wherein, Y is the downstream amount of water to be discharged, and unit is hundred million m
3, X
1For the upland water amount, unit is hundred million m
3, X
2For middle reaches quantity of precipitation, unit is mm, X
3For the middle reaches GDP growth, unit is hundred million yuan, X
4For the middle reaches population growth, unit is ten thousand people, and n is a year number, and m is the index number;
(2) to the upland water amount X in sample set
1, middle reaches quantity of precipitation X
2, middle reaches GDP growth X
3, middle reaches population growth X
4Carry out pre-service and standardization, choose the set of data samples of front N as training sample and N<n, using the set of data samples of rear n-N as test samples;
(3), according to the support vector machine Regression, in conjunction with the increase sluicing quantity analysis of Influential Factors, build the increase sluicing quantity forecast model returned based on support vector machine, comprising choosing of kernel function and model parameter;
(4) according to the kernel function of choosing and the parameter of model, by the increase sluicing quantity computing module, calculate increase sluicing quantity, draw and calculate the increase sluicing quantity value;
(5), by the error analysis submodule error of calculation, estimate based on the performance of support vector machine increase sluicing quantity computation model building.
8. the computing method of the increase sluicing quantity based on water transfer and water saving measures according to claim 7, is characterized in that described n=23, m=4 and N=18.
9. the computing method of the increase sluicing quantity based on water transfer and water saving measures according to claim 7, is characterized in that, the described standardization of step (2) is calculated as follows:
10. the computing method of the increase sluicing quantity based on water transfer and water saving measures according to claim 7, is characterized in that, described kernel function is chosen the radial basis kernel function, and the expression formula of described radial basis kernel function is:
K(x,x
i)=exp(-||x-x
i||
2/2σ
2)。
11. the computing method of the increase sluicing quantity based on water transfer and water saving measures according to claim 7, is characterized in that, the described model parameter choosing method of step (4) adopts Chaos particle swarm optimization algorithm.
12. the computing method of the increase sluicing quantity based on water transfer and water saving measures according to claim 7, it is characterized in that the relative error of the increase sluicing quantity value of the described error analysis submodule calculating of step (5) gained and the result of original increase sluicing quantity computing method gained.
13. the computing method of the increase sluicing quantity based on water transfer and water saving measures according to claim 12, it is characterized in that, if described relative error is within the error allowed band, will calculate the increase sluicing quantity value of gained and export in the mode of form or figure, and the increase sluicing quantity value that will calculate gained passes to described database; If described relative error section within the error allowed band, by revising described model parameter, kernel function re-establishes the increase sluicing quantity forecast model, recalculates the increase sluicing quantity value.
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| CN109446494A (en) * | 2018-10-19 | 2019-03-08 | 国电南瑞科技股份有限公司 | A kind of water utilities calculation method based on Report Engine |
| CN109446494B (en) * | 2018-10-19 | 2024-03-15 | 国电南瑞科技股份有限公司 | Water affair calculation method based on report engine |
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