CN103326388A - Power prediction based micro-grid energy storage system and capacity configuration method - Google Patents
Power prediction based micro-grid energy storage system and capacity configuration method Download PDFInfo
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- Y02B—CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO BUILDINGS, e.g. HOUSING, HOUSE APPLIANCES OR RELATED END-USER APPLICATIONS
- Y02B10/00—Integration of renewable energy sources in buildings
- Y02B10/10—Photovoltaic [PV]
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- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02B—CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO BUILDINGS, e.g. HOUSING, HOUSE APPLIANCES OR RELATED END-USER APPLICATIONS
- Y02B10/00—Integration of renewable energy sources in buildings
- Y02B10/70—Hybrid systems, e.g. uninterruptible or back-up power supplies integrating renewable energies
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
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- Y02B—CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO BUILDINGS, e.g. HOUSING, HOUSE APPLIANCES OR RELATED END-USER APPLICATIONS
- Y02B70/00—Technologies for an efficient end-user side electric power management and consumption
- Y02B70/30—Systems integrating technologies related to power network operation and communication or information technologies for improving the carbon footprint of the management of residential or tertiary loads, i.e. smart grids as climate change mitigation technology in the buildings sector, including also the last stages of power distribution and the control, monitoring or operating management systems at local level
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- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02E—REDUCTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS [GHG] EMISSIONS, RELATED TO ENERGY GENERATION, TRANSMISSION OR DISTRIBUTION
- Y02E10/00—Energy generation through renewable energy sources
- Y02E10/50—Photovoltaic [PV] energy
- Y02E10/56—Power conversion systems, e.g. maximum power point trackers
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- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02E—REDUCTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS [GHG] EMISSIONS, RELATED TO ENERGY GENERATION, TRANSMISSION OR DISTRIBUTION
- Y02E10/00—Energy generation through renewable energy sources
- Y02E10/70—Wind energy
- Y02E10/76—Power conversion electric or electronic aspects
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02E—REDUCTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS [GHG] EMISSIONS, RELATED TO ENERGY GENERATION, TRANSMISSION OR DISTRIBUTION
- Y02E70/00—Other energy conversion or management systems reducing GHG emissions
- Y02E70/30—Systems combining energy storage with energy generation of non-fossil origin
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
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- Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
- Y04S20/00—Management or operation of end-user stationary applications or the last stages of power distribution; Controlling, monitoring or operating thereof
- Y04S20/20—End-user application control systems
Abstract
The invention discloses a power prediction based micro-grid energy storage system and a capacity configuration method. The capacity configuration method comprises the following steps of: adopting quick start power generation equipment to cooperate with energy storage equipment to serve as reserve power supplies of a micro-grid system to balance power fluctuations of a wind power generation system and a photovoltaic power generation system in the micro-grid system; under the condition that the micro-grid energy storage system is merely used for supplying power, measuring multiple longest power generation time delta t of the quick start power generation equipment and calculating the power fluctuations delta P3 of the wind power generation system and the photovoltaic power generation system in the longest power generation time delta t based on the techniques of predicting powers of the wind power generation system and the photovoltaic power generation system to obtain the minimum capacity configuration W of the energy storage equipment in the micro-grid system. The micro-grid energy storage system and the capacity configuration method have the beneficial effects that the minimum capacity configuration of the energy storage equipment is obtained based on the techniques of predicting powers of wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation, thus reducing the quantities of the energy storage system and corresponding corollary equipment, reducing the building cost and ensuring the stable operation of the power system.
Description
Technical field
The present invention is specifically related to a kind of little electrical network energy-storage system and capacity collocation method based on power prediction.The little electric power network technique field that belongs to electric power system.
Background technology
Little electric power network technique has solved many potential problems of large-scale centralized electrical network effectively, adapt to disperse admirably electricity needs and resource distribution, the huge investment of delay to fail, the power distribution network upgrading is required, simultaneously, with large electrical network each other the power supply reliability that makes for subsequent use be improved.At present, little electrical network adopts regenerative resource as power supply, such as wind energy and solar energy.Can not constantly, stably export electric energy yet wind power generation and photovoltaic generation are subject to the variation of natural conditions, the stable of electric power system impacted.In order to reduce wind energy turbine set and the unstable impact on electric power system of photovoltaic DC field power output in the micro-grid system, need in micro-grid system, configure the energy-storage system of certain capacity.Energy-storage system can carry out reasonable must discharging and recharging in the peak valley stage, effectively opens the effect of peak load shifting.
Go back now the computational methods of neither one standard for the stored energy capacitance configuration of micro-grid system, great majority are rule of thumb to be configured, and often in order to guarantee Systems balanth, conservatively use larger capacity, use more energy storage device.Adopt jumbo configuration; this method does not have abundant new technology in conjunction with the appearance of renewable energy source domain; capacity to energy-storage system is optimized; cause the use amount of energy storage device larger; thereby cause the arrangement space of energy storage device larger; corresponding ventilation protection equipment is more, and engineering cost is higher.The cost of therefore existing energy storage device is high, takes up room larger, and the labor intensive material resources, and have certain risk.
Summary of the invention
One of purpose of the present invention is in order to overcome the high characteristics of prior art construction cost, a kind of little electrical network energy-storage system based on power prediction to be provided.
Two of purpose of the present invention is that the method can reduce the capacity of energy storage device for the capacity collocation method for a kind of little electrical network energy-storage system based on power prediction, thereby reduces the construction cost of energy-storage system, can improve the stability of electric power system.
One of purpose of the present invention can be achieved through the following technical solutions:
Little electrical network energy-storage system based on power prediction, it is characterized in that: comprise energy storage device and start fast generating equipment, described quick startup generating equipment has the electrification structure of quick startup, in little electrical network energy-storage system, power prediction technology based on wind generator system and photovoltaic generating system, adopt quick startup generating equipment and energy storage device to cooperatively interact and consist of the stand-by power supply structure of Joint Replenishment electric energy, the power fluctuation of wind generator system and photovoltaic generating system in the active balance micro-grid system reduces the capacity of energy storage device.
One of purpose of the present invention can be also to be achieved through the following technical solutions:
Further, described quick startup generating equipment is made of gas turbine generating set or diesel power generation device.
Further, described quick startup generating equipment and energy storage device cooperatively interact and consist of the stand-by power supply structure of Joint Replenishment electric energy, refer to when wind energy and solar energy deficiency, the energy storage device discharge, start fast simultaneously generating equipment and start generating, to energy storage device charging, electric energy supplement.
Further, described energy-storage system is take energy storage device as main, take quick startup generating equipment as auxiliary.
Further, described little electrical network energy-storage system adopts the lump type energy-storage system; Described energy storage device is made of the rechargeable type storage battery.
Further, described power prediction technology based on wind generator system and photovoltaic generating system, be to set forecast model according to Prediktor system or WPFSVer1.0 forecast system, dope the power output of wind generator system and the power output of photovoltaic generating system.
Two of purpose of the present invention can be achieved through the following technical solutions:
Capacity collocation method based on little electrical network energy-storage system of power prediction is characterized in that:
Adopt quick startup generating equipment and energy storage device to match as the stand-by power supply of micro-grid system, with the power fluctuation of wind generator system and photovoltaic generating system in the balance micro-grid system; Consist of fast reaction formula stand-by power supply by quick startup generating equipment and energy storage device, the randomness of exerting oneself with balance wind generator system and photovoltaic generating system;
2) in the situation that merely by little electrical network energy-storage system power supply, measure the long hair electricity time Δ t that repeatedly starts fast generating equipment, based on the power prediction technology of wind generator system and photovoltaic generating system, calculate the power fluctuation Δ P of wind generator system and photovoltaic generating system in this long hair electricity time Δ t
3, the minimum capacity that draws energy storage device in the micro-grid system configures W, and described minimum capacity configuration W represents with following expression:
W＝ΔP
3·Δt·η ①
η is the capacity safety margin coefficient in the formula.
Two of purpose of the present invention can also be achieved through the following technical solutions:
Further, described quick startup generating equipment is made of gas turbine generating set or diesel power generation device.
Further, the 2nd) described wind generator system power prediction technology refers to set forecast model according to Prediktor system or WPFSVer1.0 forecast system, dope the power output of wind generator system: at first that wind power generation power is relevant historical influence factor wind speed, air pressure, temperature and historical energy output are input to suitable forecast model as sample data, and then obtain the optimum regression parameter, then will have influencing factor wind speed, air pressure, temperature now as input variable substitution optimum regression function, obtain predicted value;
The 2nd) described photovoltaic generating system power prediction technology refers to set forecast model according to Prediktor system or WPFSVer1.0 forecast system, dopes the power output of photovoltaic generating system; At first that photovoltaic generation power is relevant historical influence factor earth's surface solar radiation quantity, temperature and historical energy output are input to suitable forecast model as sample data, and then obtain the optimum regression parameter, then will have influencing factor earth's surface solar radiation quantity, temperature now as input variable substitution optimum regression function, obtain predicted value.
Further, the low capacity configuration W configuration step of energy storage device is as follows in the calculating micro-grid system:
1) according to repeatedly starting the experiment statistics result or starting fast the data information that generating equipment producer provides, statistics starts t start-up time of generating equipment fast
r, Δ t gets quick startup generating equipment t start-up time
rMaximum (Δ t≤t
r):
Δt＝max(t
r1、...、t
r6、...t
rm) ②
2) under island mode, in conjunction with the power rate prediction data of typical case's day wind generator system and photovoltaic generating system, calculate the maximum power fluctuation Δ P at wind generator system and the photovoltaic generating system in the time period of Δ t repeatedly
3, to any t
j-t
i≤ Δ t; Have
ΔP
dgij＝P
wi-P
wj+P
pi-P
pj ③
ΔP
3＝maxΔP
dgij ④
Wherein, P
WiBe the random power output of any time i wind generator system in the Δ t time period, P
WjBe (the random power output of wind generator system of j＞i) of any time j in the same Δ t time period; P
PiBe the random power output of moment i photovoltaic generating system in the same Δ t time period, P
PjBe the random power output of moment j photovoltaic generating system in the same Δ t time period;
3) according to the longest start-up time of the Δ t that starts fast generating equipment under the island mode, calculate under the island mode minimum capacity of energy storage device configuration W in the micro-grid system;
W＝ΔP
3·Δt·η ①
By 1., 2., 3., 4. formula is known the low capacity configuration W of energy storage device in the micro-grid system that contains wind generator system and photovoltaic generating system:
W＝max(P
wi-P
wj+P
pi-P
pj)·max(t
r1、....t
r6、...t
rm)·η ⑤
(t wherein
j-t
i≤ Δ t; J＞i).
Beneficial effect of the present invention:
1, the little electrical network energy-storage system based on power prediction that the present invention relates to, gas turbine generating set or diesel power generation device that employing belongs to quick startup generating equipment cooperate energy storage device to replace single use energy storage device as the stand-by power supply of microgrid, has the capacity that reduces energy storage device, and then quantity and the shared space of equipment of having reduced energy storage device and corresponding corollary equipment, reduced engineering cost, reduce maintenance cost, and guaranteed the outstanding beneficial effect of the stability of micro-grid system.
2, the capacity that the present invention is based on little electrical network energy-storage system of power prediction is configured, the longest start-up time by quick startup generating equipment and calculate the minimum capacity of energy storage device at the maximum power fluctuometer of this time period wind generator system and photovoltaic generating system, has the start-up time according to gas turbine fast reaction power supply, predict simultaneously the maximum possible power fluctuation that wind power generation and photovoltaic generation are exerted oneself within this time period, the randomness of utilizing the fast reaction of energy storage device to come balance blower fan and photovoltaic array to exert oneself, reduce the distributed power source randomness of exerting oneself, improve the beneficial effect of the stability of electric power system.
Description of drawings:
Fig. 1 is the structural representation of micro-grid system of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is the forecast model of output power of wind power generation in the specific embodiment 1.
Fig. 3 is the topological diagram that the present invention adopts the lump type energy-storage system.
Embodiment:
The present invention is further illustrated below in conjunction with accompanying drawing.
Specific embodiment 1:
With reference to Fig. 1, Fig. 2 and Fig. 3, the present embodiment relates to the little electrical network energy-storage system based on power prediction, comprise energy storage device 3 and start fast generating equipment, described quick startup generating equipment has the electrification structure of quick startup, in little electrical network energy-storage system, power prediction technology based on wind generator system 1 and photovoltaic generating system 2, adopt quick startup generating equipment and energy storage device 3 to cooperatively interact and consist of the stand-by power supply structure of Joint Replenishment electric energy, the power fluctuation of wind generator system 1 and photovoltaic generating system 2 in the active balance micro-grid system reduces the capacity of energy storage device 3.
Described quick startup generating equipment and energy storage device 3 cooperatively interact and consist of the stand-by power supply structure of Joint Replenishment electric energy, refer to that when wind energy and solar energy deficiency, the energy storage device discharge starts generating equipment startup generating simultaneously fast, to energy storage device charging, electric energy supplement.
Described energy-storage system is take energy storage device 3 as main, take quick startup generating equipment as auxiliary.
Described little electrical network energy-storage system adopts lump type energy-storage system 3-1; Described energy storage device 3 is made of the rechargeable type storage battery; Described quick startup generating equipment is made of gas turbine generating set 5.
Described power prediction technology based on wind generator system 1 and photovoltaic generating system 2 is to set forecast model according to Prediktor system or WPFSVer1.0 forecast system, dopes the power output of wind generator system 1 and the power output of photovoltaic generating system 2.
Capacity collocation method based on little electrical network energy-storage system of power prediction:
1) adopt quick startup generating equipment and energy storage device 3 to match as the stand-by power supply of micro-grid system, with the power fluctuation of wind generator system 1 in the balance micro-grid system and photovoltaic generating system 2; Consist of fast reaction formula stand-by power supply by quick startup generating equipment and energy storage device 3, the randomness of exerting oneself with balance wind generator system 1 and photovoltaic generating system 2;
2) in the situation that merely by little electrical network energy-storage system power supply, measure the long hair electricity time Δ t that repeatedly starts fast generating equipment, based on the power prediction technology of wind generator system 1 and photovoltaic generating system 2, calculate the power fluctuation Δ P of wind generator system 1 and photovoltaic generating system 2 in this long hair electricity time Δ t
3, the minimum capacity that draws energy storage device 3 in the micro-grid system configures W, and described minimum capacity configuration W represents with following expression:
W＝ΔP
3·Δt·η ①
η is the capacity safety margin coefficient in the formula.
Described energy storage device 3 is made of the rechargeable type storage battery, and described quick startup generating equipment is made of gas turbine generating set 5.
Can obtain in advance the power stage of wind generator system 1 and photovoltaic generating system 2 by Wind power forecasting technology and photovoltaic generation power prediction technology.
Contrast Fig. 2, the forecast model flow process that the present embodiment relates to, the 2nd) the power prediction technology of described wind generator system 1 refers to set forecast model or other power prediction software according to Prediktor system or WPFSVer1.0 forecast system, dopes the power output of wind generator system 1; At first that wind power generation power is relevant historical influence factor wind speed, air pressure, temperature and historical energy output are input to suitable forecast model as sample data, and then obtain the optimum regression parameter, then will have influencing factor wind speed, air pressure, temperature now as input variable substitution optimum regression function, obtain predicted value, predicted value is carried out error analysis, for the generated output of predicting wind generator system 1 next time provides more accurate data.
The 2nd) the power prediction technology of described photovoltaic generating system 2 refers to set forecast model or other power prediction software according to Prediktor system or WPFSVer1.0 forecast system, dopes the power output of photovoltaic generating system 2; At first that photovoltaic generation power is relevant historical influence factor earth's surface solar radiation quantity, temperature and historical energy output are input to suitable forecast model as sample data, and then obtain the optimum regression parameter, then will have influencing factor earth's surface solar radiation quantity, temperature now as input variable substitution optimum regression function, obtain predicted value, predicted value is carried out error analysis, for the generated output of predicting photovoltaic generating system 2 next time provides more accurate data.The forecast model flow process of photovoltaic generating system 2 and wind generator system 1 forecast model flow process are similar, therefore in this omission.
The low capacity of energy storage device 3 configuration W configuration step is as follows in the described calculating micro-grid system:
1) according to repeatedly starting the experiment statistics result or start fast the data information that generating equipment producer provides, t start-up time of statistics gas turbine generating set 5
r, Δ t gets 5 time of gas turbine generating set t
rMaximum (Δ t≤t
r):
Δt＝max(t
r1、...、t
r6、...t
rm) ②
2) under island mode, in conjunction with the power rate prediction data of typical case's day wind generator system 1 and photovoltaic generating system 2, calculate the maximum power fluctuation Δ P at wind generator system 1 and the photovoltaic generating system 2 in the time period of Δ t repeatedly
3, to any t
j-t
i≤ Δ t; Have
ΔP
dgij＝P
wi-P
wj+P
pi-P
pj ③
ΔP
3＝maxΔP
dgij ④
Wherein, P
WiBe the random power output of any time i wind generator system in the Δ t time period, P
WjBe (the random power output of wind generator system of j＞i) of any time j in the same Δ t time period; P
PiBe the random power output of moment i photovoltaic generating system in the same Δ t time period, P
PjBe the random power output of moment j photovoltaic generating system in the same Δ t time period;
3) according to the longest start-up time of the Δ t of gas turbine generating set under the island mode 5, calculate under the island mode low capacity of energy storage device 3 configuration W in the micro-grid system;
W＝ΔP
3·Δt·η ①
By 1., 2., 3., 4. formula is known the low capacity configuration W of energy storage device 3 in the micro-grid system that contains wind generator system 1 and photovoltaic generating system 2:
W＝max(P
wi-P
wj+P
pi-P
pj)·max(t
r1、....t
r6、...t
rm)·η ⑤
(t wherein
j-t
i≤ Δ
t; J＞i).
The below is the little electrical network energy-storage system that adopts the present invention to set up, the data that this little electrical network energy-storage system provides according to producer, gas turbine from static at full speed unloaded, the normal time that starts is 12min, rapid boot-up time is 7min10s, loading procedure normal start-up time is 4min, and rapid boot-up time is 2min, is respectively 16min and 9min10s total start-up time.
Δ t=max (960,550)=960s then
Under island mode, in conjunction with the power rate prediction data of typical case's day wind generator system 1 and photovoltaic generating system 2, calculate the maximum power fluctuation Δ P at wind generator system 1 and the photovoltaic generating system 2 in the time period of Δ t repeatedly
3=750kW,
Suppose, the power of gas turbine can satisfy power prediction fully and obtain the electric energy deficiency, gets η=1.2, then according to formula 1. formula get
W＝ΔP
3·Δt·η=750Kw*960s*1.2=240kWh
The low capacity of energy storage device configuration W=240kWh in this micro-grid system.
With reference to Fig. 1, the micro-grid system that the present invention relates to comprises wind generator system 1, photovoltaic generating system 2, gas turbine generating set 5, energy storage device 3 and local load 4, in the micro-grid system take wind generator system 1 and photovoltaic generating system 2 as main power source, when wind energy and solar energy abundance, to 4 power supplies of this locality load, simultaneously to energy storage device 3 chargings; Gas turbine generating set 5 in the system and energy storage device 3 are as stand-by power supply, and when wind energy and solar energy deficiency, gas turbine generating set 5 starts, and energy storage device 3 discharges replenish not enough electric energy.
Because the change at random of wind speed causes the randomness that wind generator system 1 is exerted oneself in little electrical network, the change at random of photovoltaic causes the randomness that photovoltaic generating system 2 is exerted oneself in little electrical network, so no matter wind generator system 1 and photovoltaic generating system 2 are day generating or month generating in little electrical network, all are in the state of fluctuation.Adopt the present invention in micro-grid system, be equipped with effectively balance micro-grid system power fluctuation of energy rapid-action gas turbine Blast Furnace Top Gas Recovery Turbine Unit (TRT) 5 and energy storage device 3.Therefore, simple when considering energy-storage system as the capacity configuration of stand-by power supply, can be according to the start-up time of gas turbine generating set 5 fast reaction power supplys, predict simultaneously the maximum possible power fluctuation Δ P of wind generator system 1 and photovoltaic generating system 2 within this time period
3, the randomness of utilizing the fast reaction of energy storage device 3 to come balance wind generator system 1 and photovoltaic generating system 2 to exert oneself reduces the distributed power source randomness of exerting oneself, and improves the stability of electric power system.
With reference to Fig. 3, the energy-storage system that the present embodiment relates to adopts lump type energy-storage system 3-1, and the lump type energy-storage system is about to the single centralized unit that the microgrid energy-storage system is configured as whole micro-grid system service.
The present invention also is applicable to other system for geothermal production of electricity that is prone to power fluctuation, ocean power generation system distributed power supply.
Specific embodiment 2:
The characteristics of this specific embodiment are: described quick startup generating equipment is made of the diesel power generation device, and other characteristics are identical with specific embodiment 1.
Claims (10)
1. based on little electrical network energy-storage system of power prediction, it is characterized in that: comprise energy storage device (3) and start fast generating equipment, described quick startup generating equipment has the electrification structure of quick startup, in little electrical network energy-storage system, power prediction technology based on wind generator system (1) and photovoltaic generating system (2), adopt quick startup generating equipment and energy storage device (3) to cooperatively interact and consist of the stand-by power supply structure of Joint Replenishment electric energy, the power fluctuation of wind generator system in the active balance micro-grid system (1) and photovoltaic generating system (2) reduces the capacity of energy storage device (3).
2. the little electrical network energy-storage system based on power prediction according to claim 1 is characterized in that: described quick startup generating equipment is made of gas turbine generating set (5) or diesel power generation device.
3. the little electrical network energy-storage system based on power prediction according to claim 1, it is characterized in that: described quick startup generating equipment and energy storage device (3) cooperatively interact and consist of the stand-by power supply structure of Joint Replenishment electric energy, refer to when wind energy and solar energy deficiency, the energy storage device discharge, start fast simultaneously generating equipment and start generating, to energy storage device charging, electric energy supplement.
4. the little electrical network energy-storage system based on power prediction according to claim 1, it is characterized in that: described energy-storage system is take energy storage device (3) as main, take quick startup generating equipment as auxiliary.
5. the little electrical network energy-storage system based on power prediction according to claim 1 is characterized in that: described little electrical network energy-storage system employing lump type energy-storage system (3-1); Described energy storage device (3) is made of the rechargeable type storage battery.
6. the little electrical network energy-storage system based on power prediction according to claim 1, it is characterized in that: described power prediction technology based on wind generator system (1) and photovoltaic generating system (2), be to set forecast model according to Prediktor system or WPFSVer1.0 forecast system, dope the power output of wind generator system (1) and the power output of photovoltaic generating system (2).
7. based on the capacity collocation method of little electrical network energy-storage system of power prediction, it is characterized in that:
1) adopt quick startup generating equipment and energy storage device (3) to match as the stand-by power supply of micro-grid system, with the power fluctuation of wind generator system (1) in the balance micro-grid system and photovoltaic generating system (2); Consist of fast reaction formula stand-by power supply by quick startup generating equipment and energy storage device (3), the randomness of exerting oneself with balance wind generator system (1) and photovoltaic generating system (2);
2) in the situation that merely by little electrical network energy-storage system power supply, measure the long hair electricity time Δ t that repeatedly starts fast generating equipment, based on the power prediction technology of wind generator system (1) and photovoltaic generating system (2), calculate the power fluctuation Δ P of wind generator system (1) and photovoltaic generating system (2) in this long hair electricity time Δ t
3, the minimum capacity that draws energy storage device in the micro-grid system (3) configures W, and described minimum capacity configuration W represents with following expression:
W＝ΔP
3·Δt·η ①
η is the capacity safety margin coefficient in the formula.
8. the capacity collocation method of the little electrical network energy-storage system based on power prediction according to claim 7, it is characterized in that: described quick startup generating equipment is made of gas turbine generating set (5) or diesel power generation device.
9. according to claim 7 or the capacity collocation method of 8 described little electrical network energy-storage systems based on power prediction, it is characterized in that: the 2nd) put described wind generator system (1) power prediction technology and refer to set forecast model according to Prediktor system or WPFSVer1.0 forecast system, the power output of the force generating system that dopes (1): at first that wind power generation power is relevant historical influence factor wind speed, air pressure, temperature and historical energy output are input to suitable forecast model as sample data, and then obtain the optimum regression parameter, then will have the influencing factor wind speed now, air pressure, temperature obtains predicted value as input variable substitution optimum regression function;
The 2nd) put described photovoltaic generating system (2) power prediction technology and refer to set forecast model according to Prediktor system or WPFSVer1.0 forecast system, dope the power output of photovoltaic generating system (2); At first that photovoltaic generation power is relevant historical influence factor earth's surface solar radiation quantity, temperature and historical energy output are input to suitable forecast model as sample data, and then obtain the optimum regression parameter, then will have influencing factor earth's surface solar radiation quantity, temperature now as input variable substitution optimum regression function, obtain predicted value.
10. it is characterized in that according to claim 7 or 8 described little electrical network energy storage system capacity collocation methods based on power prediction: the low capacity of energy storage device (3) configuration W configuration step is as follows in the described calculating micro-grid system:
1) according to repeatedly starting the experiment statistics result or starting fast the data information that generating equipment producer provides, statistics starts t start-up time of generating equipment fast
r, Δ t gets quick startup generating equipment t start-up time
rMaximum (Δ t≤t
r):
Δt＝max(t
r1、...、t
r6、...t
rm) ②
2) under island mode, in conjunction with the power rate prediction data of typical case's day wind generator system (1) and photovoltaic generating system (2), calculate the maximum power of wind generator system (1) and photovoltaic generating system (2) the Δ P that fluctuates in the time period at Δ t repeatedly
3, to any t
j-t
i≤ Δ t; Have
ΔP
dgij＝P
wi-P
wj+P
pi-P
pj ③
ΔP
3＝maxΔP
dgij ④
Wherein, P
WiBe the random power output of any time i wind generator system in the Δ t time period, P
WjBe (the random power output of wind generator system of j＞i) of any time j in the same Δ t time period; P
PiBe the random power output of moment i photovoltaic generating system in the same Δ t time period, P
PjBe the random power output of moment j photovoltaic generating system in the same Δ t time period;
3) according to the longest start-up time of the Δ t that starts fast generating equipment under the island mode, calculate under the island mode low capacity configuration W of energy storage device in the micro-grid system (3);
W＝ΔP
3·Δt·η ①
By 1., 2., 3., 4. formula is known the low capacity configuration W of energy storage device (3) in the micro-grid system that contains wind generator system (1) and photovoltaic generating system (2):
W＝max(P
wi-P
wj+P
pi-P
pj)·max(t
r1、....t
r6、...t
rm)·η ⑤
(t wherein
j-t
i≤ Δ t; J＞i).
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