CN103258110B - Method for determining accident trend of electrical system on basis of states - Google Patents
Method for determining accident trend of electrical system on basis of states Download PDFInfo
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- CN103258110B CN103258110B CN201310023788.3A CN201310023788A CN103258110B CN 103258110 B CN103258110 B CN 103258110B CN 201310023788 A CN201310023788 A CN 201310023788A CN 103258110 B CN103258110 B CN 103258110B
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for determining accident trend of an electric system on the basis of states. The method is characterized by including: analyzing reliability of a singe component affected by two important factors affecting reliability of electrical components: operating time (t) and operating temperature (c), indicating system structure by an accident tree, simplifying the system structure through the accident tree to obtain system breakdown probability distribution under affection of two factors t and c, deriving the t and the c to obtain curved surfaces corresponding to variation degrees of the t and the c, and determining the accident trend of the electrical system. The method can be widely applied to determining the trend of breakdown of the electrical system along with variations of the t and the c under affection of multiple factors.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to electrical system reliability, more particularly to using a kind of electrical system accident trend based on state
Determination method.
Background technology
Electrical system is modal system in present every field, and its reliability directly affects the entirety of place system
Performance.From system perspective analysis, its reliability can be divided into two parts and be studied.One is the primary element of composition system, this
The property of a little elements is applied to the reliability of itself, and then affects the reliability of this electrical system.Two is the knot of system itself
Structure, is exactly the building form of primary element, and the difference of building form will directly determine the effect journey of elements affect system reliability
Degree.The reliability of whole system is both combinations.
For the diode element in electric system, its probability of malfunction length just with the working time, operating temperature
Size, there is direct relation by electric current and voltage etc..The system failure is assumed because component wear causes, and by changing unit
Part carries out failture evacuation.So the use time of element will become the key factor for affecting component reliability, and this factor affects
The degree of probability of malfunction obeys exponential expression.Another factor is exactly operating temperature, it will be apparent that, for electrical equipment temperature mistake
The rising of the high and too low decline and fault rate that can all cause its reliability, obeys cosine curve substantially.Electrical equipment unit is built first
Part based on use time（t）And operating temperature（c）Probability of malfunction space, and constitute the time of system by these elements
（t）And operating temperature（c）Probability of malfunction space, then to t and c difference derivation, obtain change of the curved surface respectively for t and c
Degree, determines electrical system accident trend.
The content of the invention
For preferably to invention be described, simple electric system is designed here and is described, the system is by diode
Composition, the rated operation of diode is affected by many factors, wherein importantly t and c.For being affected by the two factors
Electric system as object of study.There are five primary elements in system、、、、, and be set to be had by t and c
The element for significantly affecting, shown in its classical accident tree Fig. 1.The accident tree abbreviation of the system is obtained：。
1. the fail-safe analysis of electrical equipment
5 essential electronic elements in system、、、、Probability of malfunction, all be subject to t and c shadow
Ring, i.e. the probability of malfunction of element, whereinIt is the function of t and c as independent variable with.As t and c two
Aspect one of failure when element just break down, according to logic or conceptSuch as formula（1）It is shown.
(1)
It is determined that, it is necessary to first determineWith.If can not repair after discrete component breaks down in system, it is
System is fixed a breakdown to be realized by changing element.ThenThe cell failure probability of not repairable system is may be considered, and is set
Failure reaches 0.9999 element should be changed（This data can be obtained by given system fault rate back analysis, generally than this
Individual value is much smaller）, as shown in Equation 2.
； (2)
In formula：For cell failure rate.
For, the normal work of electric elements will have certain operating temperature range, higher or lower than the temperature
Range element just breaks down, and the rule is expressed as into cosine curve, as shown in Equation 3.
(3)
In formula：A is range of temperature.
The element of actually distinct type has the scope of different use time life-span and appropriate working temperature.
2. the fail-safe analysis of electrical system
Obtained by Fig. 1 systematic failures tree abbreviations, formula（4）It is as follows：
(4)
The system failure is obtained by classical accident tree theory（Top event）Probability of happening, such as formula（5）It is shown：
(5)
By formula（5）Understand,Be reflect electrical malfunction probability function, the function byDetermine, and
By formula（1）, it is known thatBe byWith, i.e.,It is the function by t and c, by, t and c constitute
Three-dimensional probability space distribution and its equivalent curve.
3. the determination method of electrical system accident trend
Top event probability of happening distribution trend：With regard to top event probability of happening spatial distribution
The spatial distribution that the n+1 for d obtained after a certain influence factor d derivations is tieed up.With, such as to top
The time trend of upper event occurrence rate spatial distribution is。
Description of the drawings
The accident tree of Fig. 1 electrical systems
Fig. 2 element fault probability spatial distributions
Fig. 3 element fault probability equivalent curves
Fig. 4 element fault probability spatial distributions
Fig. 5 element fault probability equivalent curves
The division of Fig. 6 survey regions
Specific embodiment
Embodiment is the electrical system shown in Fig. 1.
5 essential electronic elements in system、、、、Probability of malfunction, all be subject to t and c shadow
Ring, i.e. the probability of malfunction of element, whereinIt is the function of t and c as independent variable with.As t and c two
Aspect one of failure when element just break down, according to logic or conceptSuch as following formula：
(1)
It is determined that, it is necessary to first determineWith.If can not repair after discrete component breaks down in system, it is
System is fixed a breakdown to be realized by changing element.ThenThe cell failure probability of not repairable system is may be considered, and is set
Failure reaches 0.9999 element should be changed（This data can be obtained by given system fault rate back analysis, generally than this
Individual value is much smaller）, as shown in Equation 2.For, the normal work of electric elements will have certain operating temperature range, high
In or just break down less than the temperature range element, the rule is expressed as into cosine curve, as shown in Equation 3.
； (2)
(3)
In formula：For cell failure rate, A is range of temperature.
The element of actually distinct type has the scope of different use time life-span and appropriate working temperature, it has been assumed that he
Use range, the working time scope of researchMy god, operating temperature is interval°C.And according to formula（2）
And formula（3）It is calculatedWithExpression functional relationship in the range of each.WithEach studying
In the range of be not continuous, but piecewise function.The segmentation of each function represents as shown in table 1.
By Fig. 6 and formula（1）System element can be constructedProbability of malfunction spatial distribution and its equivalent curve, such as scheme
Shown in 2.
Table 1WithExpression formula in survey region
In Fig. 2,Probability of malfunction spatial distribution and its equivalent curve be all different, this is due to its t and c
What impact was caused.For working time t in the search time region of each element, there are two in probability of malfunction spatial distribution map
Or trizonal probability of malfunction is substantially reduced, new element is changed when reaching probability of malfunction 0.9999 due to element and is caused.
Probability of malfunction when actually this is changed can pass through the probability of malfunction of setting whole system, be managed using polynary accident tree space
Obtain by inverting, the probability of malfunction that Practical Calculation is obtained is much smaller.For operating temperature c, due to being made using cosine curve
For representative function, the minimum position of probability of malfunction is in the middle of adaptive temperature scope.From from image, element fault probability compared with
Little position concentrates on the zone line of temperature range.But, element accident probability acceptable scope is on the diagram less
, this is due to the inevitable outcome using binary accident tree representation element fault probability.The superposition of two probability makes element totality
Probability of malfunction increased, and this phenomenon cannot be analyzed using classical accident tree.Certainly, also there is element replacement excessive cycle
Reason.
Obtained by Fig. 1 systematic failures tree abbreviations, formula（4）It is as follows：
(4)
The system failure is obtained by classical accident tree theory（Top event）Probability of happening, such as formula（5）It is shown：
(5)
By formula（5）Understand,Be reflect electrical malfunction probability function, the function byDetermine, and
By formula（1）, it is known thatBe byWith, i.e.,It is the function by t and c, by, t and c constitute
Three-dimensional probability space distribution and its equivalent curve it is as shown in Figure 3.
As can be seen from Figure 3, system fault probability is minimum near the t=0 moment, main cause be in system all elements in t=0
Moment enters use state simultaneously, and this period, the probability of malfunction of each element was all very low, and the probability of malfunction for making whole system drops
It is low.In terms of using temperature, the use temperature of majority element is all at 20 °C to 30 °C, so system is in this temperature range work
Probability of malfunction it is relatively low.But development over time, the probability of malfunction of element constantly increases, begin with element and be replaced,
Simultaneously other elements also maintain original probability of malfunction curvilinear trend to continue to develop, and the new element for making replacing subtracts to system fault probability
Little effect is cancelled.Each replacement of element cycle difference causes the ability that new element improves system reliability to be cancelled out each other, and makes
The system failure rate in other regions is very high in addition near t=0.Fig. 3 can be seen that, each probability of malfunction forms isolated island, except being analyzed above
The characteristics of outside, the center in temperature of each isolated island is not consistent, this also reflects the moment changed element and these
The adaptive temperature scope of element is all different.
For this object of study, the element fault probability of electric elements system is the function of t and c, so whole electrically system
The fault rate of system is also the function of t and c.For the three-dimensional space curved surface of this system fault probability, it is entirely grinding
It is continuous to study carefully in domain, locally can be led.Because in whole survey regionIt is continuous to the expression formula of time t and temperature c
Segmentation, the waypoint for time t is：0,35,45,50,60,70,90,100 day；For the waypoint of temperature c is：0,
5,10,40,45,50 °C, so the research of whole plane is taken first splitting the mode for combining afterwards, whole region is divided into into 35
Sub-regions, the function analytic expression of zones of different is referring to Fig. 6.As shown in Figure 6.
Subregion negative camber all can lead to two variables, and the link " seam " between subregion continuously can not be led, this " seam "
Derivative Definition derivation is passed through by the independent variable and functional value of former and later two nodes.So by three-dimensional space curved surface to time t and
The derivation of temperature c, can intuitively show system failure probability of happening with time and the degree of temperature change, so as to prevent such as temperature
Degree or time change very little, cause the situation of larger fault rate change.System failure probability of happening spatial distribution to t and
C trend is as shown in Figure 5.
Claims (7)
1. a kind of determination method of the electrical system accident trend based on state, it is characterised in that just affect electrical equipment reliability
Two key factors of property：Working time t and operating temperature c are analyzed to the reliability of discrete component, can use accident tree table
Show system structure, abbreviation is carried out to system structure by accident tree, obtain considering the system failure under the influence of t and c Binary Factors
Probability distribution, then to t and c difference derivations, obtains intensity of variation of the curved surface respectively for t and c, determines that electrical system accident becomes
Gesture；It comprises the steps：The reliability of electrical equipment determines, the reliability of electrical system determines, electrical system accident trend
Determination method, with accident tree representation system structure, abbreviation is carried out to system structure by accident tree, obtain consider t and c binary
System fault probability distribution under the influence of factor, determines the trend that electrical malfunction changes with t and c.
2. the determination method of the electrical system accident trend based on state according to claim 1, it is characterised in that element
Probability of malfunction Pi(t, c) is the function of t and c as independent variable, and when one of t and the aspects of c two failure, element just breaks down,
According to logic or concept Pi(t, c) is：
Pi(t, c)=1- (1-Pi t(t))(1-Pi c(c))
Determine Pi(t, c), it is necessary to first determine Pi t(t) and Pi c(c), if can not repair after discrete component breaks down in system, system
Fix a breakdown is realized by changing element.
3. the determination method of the electrical system accident trend based on state according to claim 2, it is characterised in that Pi t
T () may be considered the cell failure probability of not repairable system, and set failure and reach 0.9999 element and should change, such as following formula institute
Show：
Pi t(t)=0.9999=1-e-λt；λ t=9.2103
In formula：λ is cell failure rate.
4. the determination method of the electrical system accident trend based on state according to claim 2, it is characterised in that for
Pi cC (), the normal work of electrical equipment will have certain operating temperature range, just send out higher or lower than the temperature range element
Raw failure, Pi cC () is expressed as cosine curve, be shown below：
In formula：A is range of temperature.
5. the determination method of the electrical system accident trend based on state according to claim 1, it is characterised in that on top
Event occurrence rate distribution trend：With regard to top event probability of happening spatial distribution PT(x1,x2,…xn) on a certain impact because
The spatial distribution that the n+1 for d obtained after plain d derivations is tieed up, usesWherein x1,x2,…xnRepresent n
Individual influence factor.
6. the determination method of the electrical system accident trend based on state according to claim 1, it is characterised in that research
The division in region：Essential electronic element x in survey region1、x2、x3、x4、x5It is continuous to the expression formula of time t and temperature c
Segmentation, the waypoint for time t is：0,35,45,50,60,70,90,100 day；For the waypoint of temperature c is：0,5,
10,40,45,50 DEG C, so the research of whole plane is taken first splitting the mode for combining afterwards, whole region is divided into into 35
Subregion.
7. the determination method of electrical system accident trend according to claim 1, it is characterised in that survey region curve
Derivation：Subregion negative camber all can lead to two variables, and the junction between subregion continuously can not lead, and this junction passes through
The independent variable and functional value of former and later two nodes passes through Derivative Definition derivation, so by three-dimensional space curved surface to time t and temperature c
Derivation, can intuitively show system failure probability of happening with time and the degree of temperature change, so as to prevent when temperature or
During time change very little, the situation of larger fault rate is caused.
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| CN103969519A (en) * | 2013-01-27 | 2014-08-06 | 辽宁工程技术大学 | Scheme guaranteeing reliability of electrical system |
| CN105117606A (en) * | 2015-10-21 | 2015-12-02 | 辽宁工程技术大学 | Method for determining element fault probability change tendency |
| CN105550754A (en) * | 2015-12-28 | 2016-05-04 | 辽宁工程技术大学 | Classification reasoning method used for inward analysis of factor structural system |
| CN106569485A (en) * | 2016-11-14 | 2017-04-19 | 辽宁工程技术大学 | Method for determining maintenance cost of electrical system element |
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