CN103246936A - System and method for pre-warning of typhoon risks of overhead transmission lines of grid - Google Patents

Abstract

A system for pre-warning of typhoon risks of overhead transmission lines of a grid comprises a typhoon live information presentation module and a typhoon forecasting information module, wherein the typhoon live information presentation module and the typhoon forecasting information module are externally connected with a weather bureau through a data private network provided with firewalls respectively; relevant data coming from the weather bureau are received when a typhoon crosses a 24-hour warning line of a sea; the used data are selected and calculated by the typhoon forecasting information module, and are calculated by a pre-warning data analysis module; and finally, the data are transmitted to a typhoon risk pre-warning module of the grid for comprehensive data processing, and a risk line set and pre-warning grades of the risk line set are output to the presentation module through judgment of the comparison between the wind speed and the designed wind speed. The invention further comprises a method for pre-warning of typhoon risks of overhead transmission lines of the grid by using the system. The system and the method are applicable to an electrical power system universally, in particular, power transmission and distribution networks in coastal areas, so that capacity of the grid for adapting to meteorological disasters which occur frequently day by day is improved; the trip-out rate of lines under a typhoon environment is reduced, and the safe and stable power supply of power transmission and distribution line channels is guaranteed.

Description

The system and method for electrical network overhead transmission line typhoon Risk-warning

Technical field

The present invention relates to a kind of system of electrical network overhead transmission line typhoon Risk-warning.The invention still further relates to and adopt described system to carry out the method for electrical network overhead transmission line typhoon Risk-warning.

Background technology

The overhead transmission line power supply capacity is big, and distributed points is many and wide, is subject to disaster influences such as typhoon, in case it is outage might influence the stability of electrical network framework, the most serious even will cause the electric grid large area power cut accident, national economy is produced serious impact, and consequence is hardly imaginable.Large-scale electrical network is successfully controlled in how effectively disaster such as pre-typhoon protection influence that electrical network is caused, guarantees its safe operation, is the targets that the operation of power networks personnel constantly make great efforts and explore.

Yet the season that typhoon occurs is generally all during meeting the kurtosis summer, transmission line of electricity mostly is heavy-duty service, if typhoon is failed to carry out in advance wind resistance preparation and draught exclusion device and is caused the wire breaking and tower falling fault temporarily, this not only powers the range of influence, and cause electrical network vibration even off-the-line easily, bring bigger harm for the safe operation of whole electrical network.

Therefore, grasp detailed weather prognosis data, set up the typhoon early warning system of science and apply imperative.Typhoon comes interim if can warn the overhead line structures that the operation of power networks personnel are subjected to typhoon influence, for the electrical network management and running of taking precautions against natural calamities provide technical support and the information-based aid decision making platform of science, make the related personnel can carry out typhoon protection measure, formulation emergency preplan, the black startup plan of preparation electrical network of electrical network in advance, set up fast quick-recovery and re-establishment mechanism after the calamity, just the influence of typhoon disaster can be reduced to minimum.

From the documents and materials that find at present, the disaster analysis aspect that relevant typhoon causes electric system, Chinese scholars is many to the research of transmission line of electricity.Research points out, the main cause that typhoon disaster appears in domestic electrical network is that the wind force proofing design standard of electric power line pole tower is on the low side, has certain gap with international most advanced level.But, comparatively speaking about typhoon defense technique aspect, particularly the research of typhoon early warning just seldom, from whole grid company system, Fujian Province Utilities Electric Co. combining geographic information (GIS) data have been set up typhoon information acquisition and surveillance, can inquire about the grid equipment situation in the big solar or lunar halo scope; East China Power Grid company inserts supervision and system of defense with typhoon forecast and live information, realize integrated, the visual presentation of typhoon information and electric network information, and dope the typhoon risk equipment collection that can be used for generating forecast failure collection in conjunction with the geographic factor of transmission line of electricity.In addition, the operations staff of part Utilities Electric Co. adjusts the method for operation by rule of thumb to reduce the line tripping rate after the geographic factor manual analysis to typhoon forecast information and transmission line of electricity.By to the researching and analysing of above-mentioned only several electrical network typhoon early warning technologies, draw and exist following problem in the existing electrical network typhoon Risk-warning technology:

1) still has the place in the manual analysis of carrying out typhoon disaster and judgement, consider that artificial decision influence factor is more and consequence is serious, ought to carry out the Computer Analysis operation of system specifications.

2) analysis that has is one or two definite value with the design wind speed unification of all overhead transmission lines, and this and actual conditions disagree, and can influence last result of determination.

3) existing electrical network typhoon Risk-warning technology and reckon without the actual conditions of transmission line of electricity and the influence of historical experience etc., and only be theoretical analysis and judgement.

Summary of the invention

First technical matters that the present invention will solve just provides a kind of system of electrical network overhead transmission line typhoon Risk-warning.

Second technical matters that the present invention will solve just provides and adopts said system to carry out the method for electrical network overhead transmission line typhoon Risk-warning.

System and method of the present invention, overcome the problems such as actual conditions that prior art is not enough to the utilization of transmission line of electricity design wind speed and do not take into full account territory of use of system transmission line of electricity, realization is to the computing voluntarily of the related datas such as location parameter of typhoon forecast information and transmission line of electricity, and can export the typhoon disaster venture analysis result of the transmission line of electricity of region.

Solve above-mentioned first technical matters, the technical solution used in the present invention is:

A kind of system of electrical network overhead transmission line typhoon Risk-warning, it is characterized in that: comprise the live information display module of typhoon, the typhoon forecast information module, electrical network typhoon Risk-warning module and early warning data analysis module, the live information display module of described typhoon and typhoon forecast information module are by being provided with the external weather bureau of the data private network server of fire wall, when having typhoon to cross the 24 hours warning lines in ocean, begin to receive the related data from weather bureau automatically, the typhoon forecast information module is selected and is calculated used data, calculate via the early warning data analysis module, transport to electrical network typhoon Risk-warning module at last and carry out the comparison that wind speed and design wind speed were handled and passed through to judge to aggregation of data, output early warning result-risk sets of lines and advanced warning grade thereof are given display module; Described early warning data analysis module is also imported the information of physical fault circuit and shaft tower, and the early warning result also regularly feeds back to electrical network typhoon Risk-warning module from normal moveout correction.

Described live information comprises: the latitude and longitude coordinates of center of typhoon position, center wind-force, survey each solar or lunar halo radius;

Described forecast information comprises: the typhoon forecast path of 24h, 48h, 72h, the center longitude that detects a typhoon with and 7 grades and storm circle prediction radius;

The live information display module of described typhoon and typhoon forecast information module two modules are externally connected with display screen also, possesses the information display function, intuitive and convenient: to typhoon live telecast, typhoon forecast information, can show also possess based on the GIS background map simultaneously, be aided with the effect of visualization figure Presentation Function of curve map and the explanation of Pop-up text box with the form of list data; And such information module also provides historical typhoon tabulation and dynamic graphical inquiry display function thereof to the typhoon historical information.

The information of forecasting of the typhoon weather characteristics parameter that described typhoon Risk-warning module provides according to observatory's (station) radar adopts linear interpolation method counting period observation station t moment point, and every interval steps is t ₀Detect a typhoon center longitude and prediction storm circle radius thereof; Calculate all grid element center that include transmission line of electricity again to the distance of each t moment point center of typhoon, will be defined as to be subjected to the typhoon influence grid to gather apart from the grid smaller or equal to this moment point typhoon forecast storm circle radius; The typhoon wind speed that each grid element center point bears at each t constantly in the set of computations then, and with its typhoon wind speed that bears constantly at each t as circuit in the grid; The last design wind speed of respective lines being made adjustment in conjunction with the actual conditions of transmission line of electricity obtains judging wind speed, typhoon wind speed and this judgement wind speed that circuit bears made comparisons, and then definite advanced warning grade and demonstration.

Further, described early warning data analysis module is the outer system database that is associated with also, the early warning data analysis module is searched for calculative data in the electrical network typhoon Risk-warning module, is calculated in database, and will calculate gained and deposit in the database, be passed to typhoon Risk-warning module and carry out overall treatment; Simultaneously, this module also is responsible for zero offset capability: according to the comparative analysis of the typhoon excessive risk circuit of predicting and actual tripping operation or broken string circuit, system will suitably regulate the judgement interval of advanced warning grade automatically.

The present invention adopts said system to carry out the method for electrical network overhead transmission line typhoon Risk-warning, may further comprise the steps:

1) when typhoon is crossed the 24 hours warning lines in ocean, said system starts; Weather bureau's server provides real-time typhoon forecast data, comprise the center of typhoon position latitude and longitude coordinates, center wind-force, survey typhoon relevant information such as each solar or lunar halo radius, upgrade issue once every 1h; The typhoon forecast path that 24h, 48h and 72h be provided with and 7 grades, storm circle prediction radius, these data are upgraded every 3h and are proofreaied and correct once;

2) electrical network overhead transmission line region is divided into the grid of 1km * 1km, and with the line information input system database that comprises in the latitude and longitude coordinates information of grid and the grid;

3) the typhoon forecast data of 24h, 48h and 72h are done following processing, determine that this zone is subjected to the bigger circuit of typhoon influence and corresponding advanced warning grade (with 24h typhoon forecast data instance, 48h, 72h in like manner can get):

1. with the center of typhoon position O of future position with its ten grades of (v ₁₀〉=24.5m/s) solar or lunar halo radius R ₁₀Make circle (maximum design wind speed of considering rules regulation 110KV and above circuit must be greater than 25m/s);

2. will predict the center of typhoon position O behind the 24h _24hForce 10 wind circle radius with its prediction

Justify;

3. make the outside common tangent of two circles, and determine interval t is influenced by typhoon force 10 wind circle constantly circuit as follows:

A) according to O(x, y), R ₁₀, v and O _24h(x _24h, y _24h),

v _24hDetermine that (every interval steps was t after t constantly ₀) center of typhoon position O _tLongitude and latitude (x _t, y _t), and determine t approximate typhoon force 10 wind circle radius constantly according to linear interpolation method

And typhoon wind speed v _y(t=nt ₀(n=1,2 ... m, mt ₀≤ 24h)):

$\left\{\begin{array}{c}\left|{\mathrm{OO}}_t\right|=\frac{\left|{\mathrm{OO}}_{24h}\right|}{24h}t\\ y_t=y+\frac{\left|{\mathrm{OO}}_t\right|}{\left|{\mathrm{OO}}_{24h}\right|}(y_{24h}-y)\\ x_t=x+\frac{\left|{\mathrm{OO}}_t\right|}{\left|{\mathrm{OO}}_{24h}\right|}\frac{\cos \left(y_{24h}\right)}{\cos \left(y_t\right)}(x_{24h}-x)\end{array}\right.---\left(1\right)$

$R_{10}^t=R_{10}^{24h}+\frac{\left|O_t{O}_{24h}\right|}{\left|{\mathrm{OO}}_{24h}\right|}(R_{10}-R_{10}^{24h})---\left(2\right)$

$v_t=v+\frac{v_{24h}-v}{24h}t---\left(3\right);$

Wherein, t ₀Can adjust as required;

Consider actual needs, the interval steps value is that the interval steps value is 1h in 10min, the 24h～72h in present 0～24h;

B) grid element center of judging all grids that include circuit is put each center of typhoon point O _tApart from S with

Between magnitude relationship: if greater than, think that then the overhead line structures in the grid are subjected to typhoon influence less, unlikely having an accident; If be less than or equal to, think that then the circuit in this grid is subjected to typhoon influence bigger at t constantly, the broken string risk is arranged, that is:

Think that to be subjected to typhoon influence less, can not break down (4)

Think that to be subjected to typhoon influence bigger, even broken string risk (5) is arranged

Wherein:

S=includes the grid element center of circuit and puts center of typhoon O _tDistance (6);

To sum up can determine to be subjected in the 72h part of path set of typhoon influence to be the part of path that comprises in all grids that satisfy formula (5), and also can determine its affected time range according to above calculating simultaneously:

Suppose that certain part of path is at t ₁～t ₂Be influenced part of path in time period, and to establish future position be T constantly, then the influenced time period of this part of path is

T+t ₁-t ₀～T+t ₂+t ₀ （7）

Only need afterwards to determine that its advanced warning grade gets final product;

4. predict that wind speed calculates: obtain corresponding each t all affected grid (circuit) set constantly by previous step, adopt linear interpolation method to calculate each t prediction wind speed v at corresponding influenced grid element center place constantly again _y, and with it prediction wind speed v that will bear constantly as its circuit prediction t that includes _y

If a certain influenced grid, its central point are A, this grid element center is put corresponding center of typhoon O _tDistance be S, can think that the wind speed at A point place is part of path t that this grid the includes prediction wind speed v that bears of back constantly _y, adopt linear interpolation method to have:

$v_y=v_t-\frac{v_t-v_{10}}{R_{10}^t}S---\left(8\right);$

Wherein, v ₁₀=24.5m/s

Simultaneous formula (3), formula (5), formula (6) and formula (8) can obtain the prediction wind speed v that each t corresponding influenced part of path of the moment bears _y

5. model based information correction:

Table 1 typhoon Risk-warning Back ground Information questionnaire

With this Back ground Information questionnaire input system database, calculate by following adjustment principle according to above information again and judge wind speed v _p:

If " A " or " not having " is with design wind speed value v ₀Reduce 5% as judging wind speed v _p

If " B " keeps design wind speed value v ₀Constant as judging wind speed v _p

If " C " or " having " is with design wind speed value v ₀Increase by 5% as judging wind speed v _p

Through after the above processing, enter the judgement that next step carries out advanced warning grade again;

6. advanced warning grade is divided: with the prediction air speed value v of circuit in each influenced grid _yThe judgement air speed value v corresponding with it _pCompare judgement, inscribe the advanced warning grade of corresponding influenced part of path in the time of can determining each t, the concrete division of each grade threshold value is as follows:

Table 2 advanced warning grade decision table

7. deposit above-mentioned result of calculation in database, if there is the excessive risk circuit in the region, then the relevant information with this transmission line of electricity is presented at typhoon early warning list page, and provides corresponding advanced warning grade, and simultaneity factor is sent the early warning sound.

It should be noted that said process need recomputate with the renewal of typhoon forecast data, therefore, because the typhoon forecast data of this early warning system are upgraded once every 3h, above-mentioned flow process also is to calculate operation once every 3h;

4) the typhoon disaster early warning information is showed: live the same with forecast information with typhoon, the typhoon disaster early warning information can show with list data, also can with based on the GIS background map, be aided with the effect of visualization figure displaying of advanced warning grade and illustration.The list data form is more convenient, and design sketch is showed then visual pattern more, and two kinds of forms are in conjunction with believing the demand that can satisfy users.

Further, the above excessive risk early warning sets of lines of III level will appear in system of the present invention and method thereof and the physical fault sets of lines compares, according to " the false dismissed rate p that proposes ₁" and " false alarm rate p ₂" carry out regular system from normal moveout correction:

If p ₁〉=α, then the threshold value with each advanced warning grade interval in the table 2 all reduces 0.01v _pIf p ₂〉=β, then the threshold value with each advanced warning grade interval in the table 2 all improves 0.01v _pWherein, α and β all can adjust according to actual, temporarily are taken as 0.2.So allow system more and more accurate, tally with the actual situation more, make the native system portability higher.

The information of forecasting of the characteristic parameter of the typhoon meteorology that system of the present invention provides according to observatory's (station) radar, grasping the security concepts of " prevention ahead of time, control early ", by setting up typhoon early warning analysis model, COMPREHENSIVE CALCULATING is handled the related datas such as location parameter of typhoon forecast information and transmission line of electricity, provide the typhoon disaster venture analysis of region transmission line of electricity, realize the meteorological early warning of typhoon of science.

Compared to existing technology, the present invention has following advantage:

1) only needs to drop into a small amount of manpower and materials and finish preliminary work, just transfer to system by oneself afterwards, realize that the electrical network of scientific and efficient is to the Risk-warning of typhoon meteorology.

2) take full advantage of the actual conditions, historical experience etc. of the design wind speed of circuit and circuit, more conform to reality.

3) native system possesses self-correcting function, can regularly carry out the correction of parameter, to reach more preferably early warning effect according to the relatively difference of high-level early warning circuit and physical fault circuit in the past.

The present invention generally is applicable to electric system, and particularly the coastland transmission and distribution networks promotes the ability that electrical network adapts to increased meteorological disaster, reduces circuit trip-out rate under the typhoon environment, ensures the safety and stability power supply of transmission and distribution line paths.

Description of drawings

Fig. 1 is electrical network overhead transmission line typhoon method for prewarning risk process flow diagram of the present invention;

Fig. 2 is electrical network overhead transmission line typhoon Risk-warning systematic schematic diagram of the present invention;

Fig. 3 is that electrical network overhead transmission line typhoon Risk-warning is analyzed key diagram.

Embodiment

As shown in Figure 2, electrical network overhead transmission line typhoon Risk-warning of the present invention system comprises the live information display module of typhoon, typhoon forecast information module, electrical network typhoon Risk-warning module and early warning data analysis module.

The external weather bureau of data private network server by being provided with fire wall of the live information display module of typhoon and typhoon forecast information module, when having typhoon to cross the 24 hours warning lines in ocean, begin to receive the related data from weather bureau's server automatically, the typhoon forecast information module is selected and is calculated used data, calculates via the early warning data analysis module, transport to electrical network typhoon Risk-warning module at last and carry out the comparison that wind speed and design wind speed were handled and passed through to judge to aggregation of data, output early warning result-risk sets of lines and advanced warning grade thereof are given display module; The early warning data analysis module is also imported the information of physical fault circuit and shaft tower, and the early warning result also regularly feeds back to electrical network typhoon Risk-warning module from normal moveout correction.

Live information comprises: the latitude and longitude coordinates of center of typhoon position, center wind-force, survey each solar or lunar halo radius; Forecast information comprises: the typhoon forecast path of 24h, 48h, 72h, the center longitude that detects a typhoon with and 7 grades and storm circle prediction radius.

The live information display module of typhoon and typhoon forecast information module two modules are externally connected with display screen also, possesses the information display function, intuitive and convenient: to typhoon live telecast, typhoon forecast information, can show also possess based on the GIS background map simultaneously, be aided with the effect of visualization figure Presentation Function of curve map and the explanation of Pop-up text box with the form of list data; And such information module also provides historical typhoon tabulation and dynamic graphical inquiry display function thereof to the typhoon historical information.

The information of forecasting of the typhoon weather characteristics parameter that typhoon Risk-warning module provides according to observatory's (station) radar, (every interval steps is t to adopt linear interpolation method counting period observation station t moment point ₀) detect a typhoon center longitude and prediction storm circle radius thereof; Calculate all grid element center that include transmission line of electricity again to the distance of each t moment point center of typhoon, will be defined as to be subjected to the typhoon influence grid to gather apart from the grid smaller or equal to this moment point typhoon forecast storm circle radius; The typhoon wind speed that each grid element center point bears at each t constantly in the set of computations then, and with its typhoon wind speed that bears constantly at each t as circuit in the grid; The last design wind speed of respective lines being made adjustment in conjunction with the actual conditions of transmission line of electricity obtains judging wind speed, typhoon wind speed and this judgement wind speed that circuit bears made comparisons, and then definite advanced warning grade and demonstration.

Further, the early warning data analysis module is the outer system database that is associated with also, the early warning data analysis module is searched for calculative data in the electrical network typhoon Risk-warning module, is calculated in database, and will calculate gained and deposit in the database, be passed to typhoon Risk-warning module and carry out overall treatment; Simultaneously, this module also is responsible for zero offset capability: according to the comparative analysis of the typhoon excessive risk circuit of predicting and actual tripping operation or broken string circuit, system will suitably regulate the judgement interval of advanced warning grade automatically.

Adopt method that said system carries out electrical network overhead transmission line typhoon Risk-warning as shown in Figure 1.

Urban district power supply administration at first need finish preliminary work, is about to the design wind speed v of each circuit ₀, line tower foundation information investigation table (example is as follows) and the judgement wind speed v that calculates according to questionnaire _pThe input system database:

Table 1, typhoon Risk-warning Back ground Information questionnaire

If " A " or " not having " is with design wind speed value v ₀Reduce 5% as judging wind speed v _p

If " B " keeps design wind speed value v ₀Constant as judging wind speed v _p

If " C " or " having " is with design wind speed value v ₀Increase by 5% as judging wind speed v _p

With the line information input system database that comprises in the latitude and longitude coordinates information of grid and the grid.

Above preliminary work is finished, and just by system of the present invention by oneself, its modularization principle specifically may further comprise the steps as shown in Figure 2 afterwards:

1, when typhoon was crossed the 24 hours warning lines in ocean, native system was started working.Weather bureau's server provides real-time typhoon data, its should comprise the center of typhoon position latitude and longitude coordinates, center wind-force, survey typhoon relevant information such as each solar or lunar halo radius, this information is upgraded issue once every 1h; The typhoon forecast path that 24h, 48h and 72h be provided with and 7 grades, storm circle prediction radius, these data are upgraded every 3h and are proofreaied and correct once.

2, electrical network overhead transmission line region is divided into the grid of 1km * 1km, and with the line information input system database that comprises in the latitude and longitude coordinates information of grid and the grid;

3, the typhoon forecast data of 24h, 48h and 72h are done following processing, determine that this urban district may be subjected to circuit and the corresponding advanced warning grade (with 24h typhoon forecast data instance, 48h and 72h in like manner can get) of typhoon influence:

1) with the center of typhoon position O of future position with its ten grades of (v ₁₀〉=24.5m/s) solar or lunar halo radius R ₁₀Make circle (maximum design wind speed of considering rules regulation 110KV and above circuit must be greater than 25m/s).

2) will predict center of typhoon position O behind the 24h _24hForce 10 wind circle radius with its prediction Justify.

3) remake the outside common tangent of two circles, and determine interval t is influenced by typhoon force 10 wind circle constantly circuit as follows, as shown in Figure 3:

A) according to O(x, y), R ₁₀, v and O _24h(x _24h, y _24h),

v _24hDetermine that (every interval steps was t after t constantly ₀) center of typhoon position O _tLongitude and latitude (x _t, y _t), and determine t approximate typhoon force 10 wind circle radius constantly according to linear interpolation method

And typhoon wind speed v _y(t=nt ₀(n=1,2 ... m, mt ₀≤ 24h)):

$\left\{\begin{array}{c}\left|{\mathrm{OO}}_t\right|=\frac{\left|{\mathrm{OO}}_{24h}\right|}{24h}t\\ y_t=y+\frac{\left|{\mathrm{OO}}_t\right|}{\left|{\mathrm{OO}}_{24h}\right|}(y_{24h}-y)\\ x_t=x+\frac{\left|{\mathrm{OO}}_t\right|}{\left|{\mathrm{OO}}_{24h}\right|}\frac{\cos \left(y_{24h}\right)}{\cos \left(y_t\right)}(x_{24h}-x)\end{array}\right.---\left(1\right)$

$R_{10}^t=R_{10}^{24h}+\frac{\left|O_t{O}_{24h}\right|}{\left|{\mathrm{OO}}_{24h}\right|}(R_{10}-R_{10}^{24h})---\left(2\right)$

$v_t=v+\frac{v_{24h}-v}{24h}t---\left(3\right)$

Wherein, t ₀Can adjust as required.Consider actual needs, the interval steps value is that the interval steps value is 1h in 10min, the 24h～72h in present 0～24h.

B) grid element center of judging all grids that include circuit is put each center of typhoon point O _tApart from S with

Between magnitude relationship: if greater than, think that then the overhead line structures in the grid are subjected to typhoon influence less, unlikely having an accident; If smaller or equal to, think that then the circuit in this grid is subjected to typhoon influence bigger at t constantly, the broken string risk is arranged.That is:

Think that to be subjected to typhoon influence less, can not break down (4)

Think that to be subjected to typhoon influence bigger, even broken string risk (5) is arranged

Wherein:

S=includes the grid element center of circuit and puts center of typhoon O _tDistance (6);

To sum up can determine to be subjected in the 72h part of path set of typhoon influence to be the part of path that comprises in all grids that satisfy formula (5), and also can determine its affected time range according to above calculating simultaneously:

Suppose that certain part of path is at t ₁～t ₂Be influenced part of path in time period, and to establish future position be T constantly, then the influenced time period of this part of path is

T+t ₁-t ₀～T+t ₂+t ₀ （7）；

Only need afterwards to determine that its advanced warning grade gets final product;

4. predict that wind speed calculates: obtain corresponding each t all affected grid (circuit) set constantly by previous step, adopt linear interpolation method to calculate each t prediction wind speed v at corresponding influenced grid element center place constantly again _y, and with it prediction wind speed v that will bear constantly as its circuit prediction t that includes _y

If a certain influenced grid, its central point are A, this grid element center is put corresponding center of typhoon O _tDistance be S, can think that the wind speed at A point place is part of path t that this grid the includes prediction wind speed v that bears of back constantly _y, adopt linear interpolation method to have:

$v_y=v_t-\frac{v_t-v_{10}}{R_{10}^t}S---\left(8\right)$

Wherein, v ₁₀=24.5m/s

In conjunction with Fig. 1, this moment S=|AO _t|, v _C=v ₁₀=24.5m/s, then the prediction maximum wind velocity that bears of AB section is this A prediction wind speed of ordering constantly, obviously has:

$v_y=v_A=v_t-\frac{v_t-v_C}{R_{10}^t}\left|{\mathrm{AO}}_t\right|---\left(9\right)$

To sum up can try to achieve the prediction wind speed v that each t corresponding influenced part of path of the moment bears very easily _y

5) advanced warning grade is divided: according to the prediction air speed value v of each part of path _yJudgement air speed value v with this part of path _pCompare judgement, can determine the advanced warning grade inscribed when each part of path respectively influences t, each grade threshold value is concrete divide as follows:

Table 2 advanced warning grade decision table

6) all deposit above-mentioned result of calculation in database, if there is the excessive risk circuit in the region, then the relevant information with this transmission line of electricity is presented at typhoon early warning list page, and provides corresponding advanced warning grade, and simultaneity factor is sent the early warning sound.

It should be noted that because the typhoon forecast data of this early warning system are upgraded once every 3h above-mentioned flow process also needs to calculate operation once every 3h.

3, the typhoon disaster early warning information is showed:

The information that the typhoon disaster early warning information comprises when showing with list data is as shown in the table:

Table 3 typhoon disaster early warning output information table

Live the same with forecast information with typhoon, the typhoon disaster early warning information can show with list data, also can with based on the GIS background map, be aided with the effect of visualization figure displaying of advanced warning grade and illustration.The list data form is more convenient, and design sketch is showed then visual pattern more, and two kinds of forms are in conjunction with believing the demand that can satisfy users.

4, system is regularly from normal moveout correction:

System of the present invention compares III level above excessive risk early warning sets of lines and the actual sets of lines that breaks down that occurs, according to " the false dismissed rate p that proposes ₁" and " false alarm rate p ₂" carry out regular system from normal moveout correction:

If p ₁〉=α, then the threshold value with each advanced warning grade interval in the table 2 all reduces 0.01v _pIf p ₂〉=β, then the threshold value with each advanced warning grade interval in the table 2 all improves 0.01v _pWherein, α and β all can adjust according to actual, temporarily all are taken as 0.2.

Claims (4)

1. the system of an electrical network overhead transmission line typhoon Risk-warning, it is characterized in that: comprise the live information display module of typhoon, the typhoon forecast information module, electrical network typhoon Risk-warning module and early warning data analysis module, the live information display module of described typhoon and typhoon forecast information module are by being provided with the external weather bureau of the data private network server of fire wall, when having typhoon to cross the 24 hours warning lines in ocean, begin to receive the related data from weather bureau's server automatically, the typhoon forecast information module is selected and is calculated used data, calculate via the early warning data analysis module, transport to electrical network typhoon Risk-warning module at last and carry out the comparison that wind speed and design wind speed were handled and passed through to judge to aggregation of data, output early warning result-risk sets of lines and advanced warning grade thereof are given display module; Described early warning data analysis module is also imported the information of physical fault circuit and shaft tower, and the early warning result also regularly feeds back to electrical network typhoon Risk-warning module from normal moveout correction.

2. the system of electrical network overhead transmission line typhoon Risk-warning according to claim 1, it is characterized in that: the information of forecasting of the typhoon weather characteristics parameter that described typhoon Risk-warning module provides according to observatory's server, adopting linear interpolation method counting period observation station t moment point, every interval steps is t ₀Detect a typhoon center longitude and prediction storm circle radius thereof; Calculate all grid element center that include transmission line of electricity again to the distance of each t moment point center of typhoon, will be defined as to be subjected to the typhoon influence grid to gather apart from the grid smaller or equal to this moment point typhoon forecast storm circle radius; The typhoon wind speed that each grid element center point bears at each t constantly in the set of computations then, and with its typhoon wind speed that bears constantly at each t as circuit in the grid; The last design wind speed of respective lines being made adjustment in conjunction with the actual conditions of transmission line of electricity obtains judging wind speed, typhoon wind speed and this judgement wind speed that circuit bears made comparisons, and then definite advanced warning grade and demonstration.

3. the system of electrical network overhead transmission line typhoon Risk-warning according to claim 1, it is characterized in that: described early warning data analysis module is the outer system database that is associated with also, the early warning data analysis module is searched for calculative data in the electrical network typhoon Risk-warning module, is calculated in database, and will calculate gained and deposit in the database, be passed to typhoon Risk-warning module and carry out overall treatment; Simultaneously, the early warning data analysis module also is responsible for zero offset capability: according to the comparative analysis of the typhoon excessive risk circuit of predicting and actual tripping operation or broken string circuit, system will suitably regulate the judgement interval of advanced warning grade automatically.

4. an employing such as the described any system of claim 1 to 3 carry out the method for electrical network overhead transmission line typhoon Risk-warning, may further comprise the steps:

1) when typhoon is crossed the 24 hours warning lines in ocean, start described system, weather bureau's server provides real-time typhoon forecast data, comprising: the latitude and longitude coordinates of center of typhoon position, center wind-force, survey each solar or lunar halo radius, upgrade issue once every 1h; The typhoon forecast path that 24h, 48h and 72h be provided with and 7 grades, storm circle prediction radius, these data are upgraded every 3h and are proofreaied and correct once;

2) electrical network overhead transmission line region is divided into the grid of 1km * 1km, and with the line information input system database that comprises in the latitude and longitude coordinates information of grid and the grid;

3) the typhoon forecast data of 24h, 48h and 72h are done following processing: determine that this zone is subjected to the bigger circuit of typhoon influence and corresponding advanced warning grade, with 24h typhoon forecast data instance, 48h, 72h in like manner can get below:

1. with the center of typhoon position O of future position with its ten grades of v ₁₀The solar or lunar halo radius R of 〉=24.5m/s ₁₀Justify;

2. will predict the center of typhoon position O behind the 24h _24hForce 10 wind circle radius with its prediction Justify;

3. make the outside common tangent of two circles, and determine interval t is influenced by typhoon force 10 wind circle constantly circuit as follows:

A) according to O(x, y), R ₁₀, v and O _24h(x _24h, y _24h),

, v _24hDetermine that back, every interval steps are t to t constantly ₀Center of typhoon position O _tLongitude and latitude (x _t, y _t), and determine t approximate typhoon force 10 wind circle radius constantly according to linear interpolation method And typhoon wind speed v _y, t=nt ₀(n=1,2Lm, mt ₀≤ 24h):

$\left\{\begin{array}{c}\left|{\mathrm{OO}}_t\right|=\frac{\left|{\mathrm{OO}}_{24h}\right|}{24h}t\\ y_t=y+\frac{\left|{\mathrm{OO}}_t\right|}{\left|{\mathrm{OO}}_{24h}\right|}(y_{24h}-y)\\ x_t=x+\frac{\left|{\mathrm{OO}}_t\right|}{\left|{\mathrm{OO}}_{24h}\right|}\frac{\cos \left(y_{24h}\right)}{\cos \left(y_t\right)}(x_{24h}-x)\end{array}\right.---\left(1\right)$

$R_{10}^t=R_{10}^{24h}+\frac{\left|O_t{O}_{24h}\right|}{\left|{\mathrm{OO}}_{24h}\right|}(R_{10}-R_{10}^{24h})---\left(2\right)$

$v_t=v+\frac{v_{24h}-v}{24h}t---\left(3\right);$

Wherein, t ₀Can adjust as required: the interval steps value is that the interval steps value is 1h in 10min, the 24h～72h in 0～24h;

B) grid element center of judging all grids that include circuit is put each center of typhoon point O _tApart from S with

Between magnitude relationship: if greater than, think that then the overhead line structures in the grid are subjected to typhoon influence less, unlikely having an accident; If be less than or equal to, think that then the circuit in this grid is subjected to typhoon influence bigger at t constantly, the broken string risk is arranged, that is:

Think that to be subjected to typhoon influence less, can not break down (4)

Think that to be subjected to typhoon influence bigger, even broken string risk (5) is arranged

Wherein:

S=includes the grid element center of circuit and puts center of typhoon O _tDistance (6);

To sum up can determine to be subjected in the 72h part of path set of typhoon influence to be the part of path that comprises in all grids that satisfy formula (5), and also can determine its affected time range according to above calculating simultaneously:

Suppose that certain part of path is at t ₁～t ₂Be influenced part of path in time period, and to establish future position be T constantly, then the influenced time period of this part of path is

T+t ₁-t ₀～T+t ₂+t ₀ （7）；

Determine its advanced warning grade afterwards;

4. predict that wind speed calculates: obtain corresponding each t all affected grids, line set constantly by previous step, adopt linear interpolation method to calculate each t prediction wind speed v at corresponding influenced grid element center place constantly again _y, and with it prediction wind speed v that will bear constantly as its circuit prediction t that includes _y

If a certain influenced grid, its central point are A, this grid element center is put corresponding center of typhoon O _tDistance be S, can think that the wind speed at A point place is part of path t that this grid the includes prediction wind speed v that bears of back constantly _y, adopt linear interpolation method to have:

$v_y=v_t-\frac{v_t-v_{10}}{R_{10}^t}S---\left(8\right);$

Wherein, v ₁₀=24.5m/s

Simultaneous formula (3), formula (5), formula (6) and formula (8) can obtain the prediction wind speed v that each t corresponding influenced part of path of the moment bears _y

5. model based information correction:

Table 1 typhoon Risk-warning Back ground Information questionnaire

With above-mentioned Back ground Information questionnaire input system database, calculate by following adjustment principle according to above information again and judge wind speed v _p:

If " A " or " not having " is with design wind speed value v ₀Reduce 5% as judging wind speed v _p

If " B " keeps design wind speed value v ₀Constant as judging wind speed v _p

If " C " or " having " is with design wind speed value v ₀Increase by 5% as judging wind speed v _p

Through after the above processing, enter the judgement that next step carries out advanced warning grade again;

6. advanced warning grade is divided: with the prediction air speed value v of circuit in each influenced grid _yThe judgement air speed value v corresponding with it _pCompare judgement, inscribe the advanced warning grade of corresponding influenced part of path in the time of can determining each t, the concrete division of each grade threshold value is as follows:

Table 2 advanced warning grade decision table

7. deposit above-mentioned result of calculation in system database, if there is the excessive risk circuit in the region, then the relevant information with this transmission line of electricity is presented at typhoon early warning list page, and provides corresponding advanced warning grade, and simultaneity factor is sent the early warning sound;

Above-mentioned flow process recomputates operation once every 3h;

4) the typhoon disaster early warning information is showed

The excessive risk early warning sets of lines and the physical fault sets of lines that occur more than the III level are compared, according to " the false dismissed rate p that proposes ₁" and " false alarm rate p2 " carry out regular system from normal moveout correction:

If p ₁〉=α, then the threshold value with each advanced warning grade interval in the table 2 all reduces 0.01v _pIf p ₂〉=β, then the threshold value with each advanced warning grade interval in the table 2 all improves 0.01v _pWherein, α and β all can adjust according to actual, temporarily are taken as 0.2.

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