CN103065057A - Method for evaluating economy of differential planning of electric system - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for evaluating economy of for differential planning of an electric system. Based on principles and requirements on differential planning of a large power grid, a life cycle cost theory is combined with a 'with and without comparison' theory in disaster economics, a set of differential life cycle cost-effectiveness economy evaluation system is provided; increased cost, reduced benefit, disaster happening time and probability are comprehensively considered, three economy evaluation indexes about accumulated increased cost, expected net benefit and benefit cost are provided; difference between service lives and operation time of different equipment is comprehensively considered, and via determining a unified time period, economy evaluation from equipment level (unit piece) to a system level (multiunit pieces) for the differential planning is realized. The method for evaluating the economy of for the differential planning of the electric system has important instructing significance for selection of reinforcing equipment, determination of design standards and comparison and selection of an optimum differential planning scheme in the differential planning of the power grid.

Description

A kind of electric system differentiation planning economic evaluation method

Technical field

The invention belongs to the differentiation planning field of electric system, particularly a kind of electric system differentiation planning economic evaluation method.

Background technology

Because the factors such as the residing geographic position of different circuits and extraneous meteorological condition is different, the required strong degree that has is also different when facing disaster.The planning of the differentiation of electrical network is exactly that different circuits, different section are carried out the differentiation design, and important line is transformed or improved design standards, is formed on the key rack of the lease core that can guarantee the important load continued power when major natural disasters occur.

In recent years, extreme disaster causes affecting the event frequent occurrence of electric power netting safe running and normal power supply, causes huge economic loss and serious social influence.Electrical network is carried out the differentiation design, make up the core backbone frame, the ability that strengthens electrical network resistance disaster is subject to people's attention gradually, but be to transform circuit or improve the increase that design standards all is accompanied by construction cost, therefore must carry out economic evaluation to the electrical network after the differentiation planning.

Present existing economic evaluation method all is for the Electric Power Network Planning of routine.Zhang Yan is at periodical " Automation of Electric Systems " 1999,23(15): " reliability cost in the Electric Power Network Planning-performance analysis research " that 33-36 delivers is with the reliability of electrical network short of electricity cost, that is not enough or interrupt causing that the economic loss that user's short of electricity, power failure cause represents owing to electric power supply, electric network reliability has been realized quantification, reliability cost and reliability benefit are unified on the economy of electrical network, realize that the economy of Electric Power Network Planning is optimum.The weak point of the method is only to pay attention to cost and the local benefit of electric grid investment, considers not enough to the chronicity of Electric Power Network Planning and the time factor of fund.

Liu Lu etc. are at periodical " Automation of Electric Systems " 2012,36(15): " based on the power system economy appraisal procedure of overall life cycle cost " that 45-50 delivers expands the utilization of overall life cycle cost theory to whole electric system by individual equipment, set up a three-dimensional overall life cycle cost model for electric system integral body.The method has overcome in the assessment of current power system economy the deficiency of ignoring standing cost, paying attention to liquid investment, but be only applicable to conventional Electric Power Network Planning economic evaluation, consider not enough to the special operational mode under the disaster scene after the planning of electrical network differentiation.

Consider the singularity of the rear electrical network of differentiation planning, the economic evaluation method of conventional Electric Power Network Planning also not exclusively is suitable for the economic evaluation of the rear electrical network of differentiation planning.Along with issuing of State Grid Corporation of China " electrical network differentiation planning and design instruction ", the differentiation planning and design are used in reference to gradually conductive mesh planning and transform, in the urgent need to exploring a kind of new the economic evaluation system and the appraisal procedure that are applicable to the differentiation Electric Power Network Planning on the basis of existing achievement in research.

Summary of the invention

For the problem that background technology exists, the invention provides a kind of electric system differentiation planning economic evaluation method.

For solving the problems of the technologies described above, the present invention adopts following technical scheme:

A kind of electric system differentiation planning economic evaluation method may further comprise the steps;

Step 1, determine the core backbone frame; Operational mode after the clear and definite electrical network differentiation planning under the disaster scene, electric network composition is comprised of the differentiation circuit under the disaster scene, i.e. only remaining core backbone frame stable operation;

Step 2, set up economic evaluation system based on the differentiation overall life cycle cost according to electrical network differentiation planning financial cost key element, comprise differentiation cost and differentiation benefit;

The differentiation cost comprises the newly-built cost of core backbone frame and original electrical network is carried high-level improvement cost, specifically comprises differentiation cost of investment, differentiation operating cost, differentiation maintenance cost and differentiation scrap cost;

The loss that disaster may cause occurs when the differentiation benefit is " without differences design ", and namely " impairment " benefit comprises direct benefit and indirect benefit;

Step 3, calculated difference changes into this and differentiation benefit respectively:

3.1, calculated difference cost of investment CI, in the computation process, with the product of all investment conversions for unit line additional cost and line length:

CI＝C _i×l _i （1）

Wherein, C _iBe the unit additional cost that the i bar is strengthened circuit, l _iBe line length;

3.2, calculated difference operating cost CO and differentiation maintenance cost CM, calculate by differentiation cost of investment number percent:

CO+CM＝K ₁CI (2)

Wherein, K ₁Be the operation maintenance scale-up factor;

3.3, calculated difference scrap cost CD:

$\mathrm{CD}=f_1-{\mathrm{<figure-callout\; id="2"\; label="f"\; filenames="130125094640.png"\; state="\{\{state\}\}">f</figure-callout>}}_2=K_2\mathrm{CI}-\frac{\mathrm{CI}}{{(1+r)}^N}---\left(3\right)$

Wherein, f ₁Be processing cost; f ₂Be residual value; K ₂Be processing coefficient; R is average annual coefficient of depreciation, and N is life cycle;

3.4, calculate direct economic benefit B ₁:

B ₁＝B ₁₁+B ₁₂+B ₁₃ (4)

B ₁₁＝CI′=C′ _i×l _i (5)

B ₁₂＝(λ ₃-λ ₂)×L ₁×T+(λ ₂-λ)×L ₁×T (6)

B ₁₃＝(λ ₃-λ ₂)×L ₂×T+(λ ₂-λ)×L ₂×T (7)

Wherein, B ₁₁, B ₁₂, B ₁₃Represent that respectively electric power facility repairing expense, important load and power supply ensure that income, general load ensure benefit with power supply; Initial outlay when CI ' plans for not carrying out differentiation, C ' _iBe i bar required specific investment when strengthening circuit and not carrying out differentiation planning, l _iBe line length; λ ₃Sale of electricity electricity price for Utilities Electric Co.; λ ₂Rate for incorporation into the power network for genco; λ is cost of electricity-generating; L ₁Be the important load number that ensures; L ₂Be the general load number that ensures; T expects power off time under the disaster scene;

3.5, calculate indirect economic effect B ₂:

B ₂＝a ₁B ₁₂+a ₂B ₁₃ （8）

Wherein, a ₁Be the assurance coefficient of important load and power supply, a ₂Be the assurance coefficient of general load with power supply;

Step 4, set up the economic evaluation model, comprise apparatus for establishing level economic evaluation model or set up system-level economic evaluation model, specifically comprise:

Life cycle N when (1) determining many equipment operations

The equipment 1 of setting after differentiation designs puts into operation at first, and its cycle in serviceable life is N ₁, Δ t ₁For equipment 1 puts into operation the mistiming Δ t with respect to self ₁≡ 0, and other equipment are respectively Δ t with respect to equipment 1 mistiming of putting into operation ₂, Δ t ₃..., Δ t _m, the cycle in serviceable life is respectively N ₂, N ₃..., N _m, then life cycle N is:

N＝max(Δt ₁+N ₁,Δt ₂+N ₂,…,Δt _m+N _m) （9）

(2) apparatus for establishing level economic evaluation model

Set disaster and occur in the interior k of life cycle, k=1,2 ..., N, N are the research cycle of individual equipment, then:

Equipment α at the differentiation cumulative cost F (α, k) of k is:

$F(\mathrm{\&alpha;},k)={\mathrm{CI}}_{\mathrm{\&alpha;}}{(1+i)}^k+{(\mathrm{CO}+\mathrm{CM})}_{\mathrm{\&alpha;}}\frac{{(1+i)}^k-1}{i}+\left\{\begin{array}{cc}0& (k=\mathrm{1,2},\&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;,N-1)\\ {\mathrm{CD}}_{\mathrm{\&alpha;}}& (k=N)\end{array}\right.---\left(10\right)$

The direct benefit that equipment α brings and indirect benefit are: DB (α)=(B ₁+ B ₂) _α(11)

Wherein, the differentiation cost of investment of first and second the indication equipment α on equal sign the right and differentiation operating cost, differentiation maintenance cost are converted the value to k in the formula (10); The differentiation scrap cost only exists at the life cycle management end; I is annual rate;

(3) set up system-level economic evaluation model

Set the k that disaster occurs in life cycle, m ₁The individual equipment that puts into operation does not also reach self cycle in serviceable life, represents with set A:

m ₂The individual equipment of putting into operation need to be changed, and represents with set B:

On the basis of individual equipment differentiation cumulative cost F (α, k), consider the time value of fund, obtain all devices (namely system-level) in the cumulative cost function F of the k of life cycle _ΣAnd corresponding differentiation benefit;

$F_{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}=\underset{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_1\&Element;A}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}F({\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_1,k-{\mathrm{\&Delta;t}}_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_1})+\underset{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2\&Element;B}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}[F({\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2,N_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2}){(1+i)}^{k-(N_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2}+{\mathrm{\&Delta;t}}_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2})}+F({\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2,k-(N_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2}+{\mathrm{\&Delta;t}}_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2}))]$

$\left(12\right)$

DB _Σ＝(B ₁+B ₂) _Σ （13）

In the formula (12), F _ΣRepresent system-level cumulative cost function, Expression put into operation but do not reach self in serviceable life equipment cumulative cost and, $\underset{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2\&Element;B}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}[F({\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2,N_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2}){(1+i)}^{k-(N_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2}+{\mathrm{\&Delta;t}}_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2})}+F({\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2,k-(N_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2}+{\mathrm{\&Delta;t}}_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2}))]$ The expression carried out equipment replacement cumulative cost and; Ω ₁Be the equipment that puts into operation but need not to change,

What represent relevant device puts into operation the mistiming Ω ₂The equipment that expression need to be changed,

With

Represent respectively relevant device cycle in serviceable life and put into operation the mistiming, i is annual rate; Direct benefit and indirect benefit sum that the design of many equipment of formula (13) expression differentiation brings.

Step 5, calculate the economic evaluation index based on the differentiation life cycle management;

The accumulative total differentiation cost F of N _N, income E (W), benefit cost ratio IR

$E\left(W\right)=P\underset{k=1}{\overset{N}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}{W}_k{(1+i)}^{N-k}=P\underset{k=1}{\overset{N}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}({\mathrm{DB}}_k-F_k){(1+i)}^{N-k}---\left(14\right)$

$\mathrm{IR}=\frac{E\left(W\right)}{F_N}---\left(15\right)$

Wherein, k represents the time that disaster occurs, and N is life cycle, and p is the average annual probability of happening of disaster, W _kThe expression annual earnings; In the device level economic evaluation, in k=N substitution F (α, k), obtain F _NIn system-level economic evaluation, with k=N substitution F _ΣIn obtain F _NF _kThe accumulative total differentiation cost that represents k, DB _kThe differentiation benefit that represents k; In the device level economic evaluation, F _k=F (α, k), DB _k=(B ₁+ B ₂) _αIn system-level economic evaluation, F _k=F _Σ, DB _k=DB _Σ=(B ₁+ B ₂) _Σ

The computing formula of the average annual probability of happening of described disaster is as follows:

P(I≥i)=1/t _i （16）

P (I 〉=i) represent that every year is more than or equal to the disaster probability of happening of given intensity i; t _iThe expression disaster reoccurrence period;

The computing formula of the average annual probability of happening of disaster in the specified intensity range is:

P(i ₁≤I≤i ₂)=P(I≥i ₁)-P(I≥i ₂) （17）

Wherein, P (i ₁≤ I≤i ₂) represent that disaster intensity is not less than i ₁But less than i ₂The disaster probability of happening, be interval probability.

Described differentiation cost of investment comprises strengthening device investment, strengthening design technological investment, differentiation engineering construction investment, the newly-increased cost of delivering;

Described differentiation operating cost comprises cost of labor, energy loss expense, material, Tables for machines student contributions pooled to pay for class activities;

Described differentiation maintenance cost comprises equipment maintenance cost, maintenance cost;

Described differentiation scrap cost comprises processing cost, residual value;

Described direct benefit comprises that electric power facility repairing expense, important load and power supply ensure that income, general load ensure income with power supply;

Described indirect benefit comprises Society rescue expense, important load damages, prevents Derived Hazard, recessive social benefit.

Compared with prior art, the present invention has the following advantages and beneficial effect:

1, the present invention has taken into full account the special operational mode of electrical network differentiation planning under the disaster scene.

2, the present invention extracts the reinforcement cost of differentiation planning with the impairment benefit, in life cycle management, carry out asset management, the economy of rear electrical network is planned in poor alienation directly perceived, takes full advantage of the advantage of overall life cycle cost theory and Cost-Benefit Method.

3, the present invention proposes differentiation planning economic evaluation index, can be used for the economy ratio choosing of economic evaluation and the different differentiation programmes of the design of equipment differentiation, realized the economic evaluation of differentiation planning from device level (unit piece) to system-level (multicomponent).

4, the present invention has important directive significance to the ratio choosing of the definite and economic optimum differentiation programme of the Choice and design standard of reinforcement equipment in the planning of electrical network differentiation.

Description of drawings

Fig. 1 is process flow diagram of the present invention.

Fig. 2 is economic evaluation system synoptic diagram among the present invention.

Fig. 3 is the computing method synoptic diagram of life cycle N among the present invention.

Fig. 4 is the wiring diagram of Garver6 system in the embodiment of the invention.

Among Fig. 5 (a) and (b) be respectively the year-by-year assessment curve of circuit 3-5 when strengthening to the different designs standard.

Fig. 6 is system-level differentiation assessment curve map.

Embodiment

Embodiment 1

A kind of electric system differentiation planning economic evaluation method is carried out the economic evaluation of device level (unit piece), and Garver6 node example model is as example in Fig. 4.May further comprise the steps;

Step 1, determine the core backbone frame; Operational mode after the clear and definite electrical network differentiation planning under the disaster scene, electric network composition is comprised of the differentiation circuit under the disaster scene, i.e. only remaining core backbone frame stable operation;

The main impact of considering the ice and snow disaster, determine that important line is 3-5,2-6,4-6 in the example model, be newly-built differentiation circuit, length is respectively 20km, 30km, 30km, design standards is brought up to anti-fifty year return period or a-hundred-year ice damage by the ice damage of anti-30 years one chances, when the disaster scene surpasses the design standards ice damage for generation, strengthen circuit and normally move, do not strengthen circuit and all stop transport.Disaster scene lower node example data are as shown in table 1;

Table 1Garver6 node example data

Step 2, set up economic evaluation system based on the differentiation overall life cycle cost according to electrical network differentiation planning financial cost key element, comprise differentiation cost and differentiation benefit;

All cost elements all only consider because the newly-increased cost of differentiation designing institute namely only considers to improve the transformation of design standards or newly-built " reinforcement " cost; The main impact of considering major natural disasters is not so conventional failure cost is included within the cost element;

The differentiation cost comprises the newly-built cost of core backbone frame and original electrical network is carried high-level improvement cost, in conjunction with life cycle theory, specifically comprises differentiation cost of investment, differentiation operating cost, differentiation maintenance cost and differentiation scrap cost; The differentiation cost of investment comprises strengthening device investment, strengthening design technological investment, differentiation engineering construction investment, the newly-increased cost of delivering; Differentiation operating cost comprises cost of labor, energy loss expense, material, Tables for machines student contributions pooled to pay for class activities; The differentiation maintenance cost comprises equipment maintenance cost, maintenance cost; The differentiation scrap cost comprises processing cost, residual value;

According to " having or not contrast " principle in the economics of catastrophe, the loss that disaster may cause when being defined as " without differences design ", the differentiation benefit occurs, and namely " impairment " benefit comprises direct benefit and indirect benefit; Direct benefit comprises that electric power facility repairing expense, important load and power supply ensure that income, general load ensure income with power supply; Indirect benefit comprises Society rescue expense, important load damages, prevents Derived Hazard, recessive social benefit.

Step 3, calculated difference changes into this and differentiation benefit respectively:

3.1, calculated difference cost of investment CI, in the computation process, with the product of all investment conversions for unit line additional cost and line length:

CI＝C _i×l _i （1）

Wherein, C _iBe the unit additional cost that the i bar is strengthened circuit, l _iBe line length.

3.2, calculated difference operating cost CO and differentiation maintenance cost CM, calculate by differentiation cost of investment number percent:

CO+CM＝K ₁CI (2)

Wherein, K ₁Be operation maintenance scale-up factor, K ₁=0.10;

3.3, calculated difference scrap cost CD:

$\mathrm{CD}=f_1-{\mathrm{<figure-callout\; id="2"\; label="f"\; filenames="130125094640.png"\; state="\{\{state\}\}">f</figure-callout>}}_2={\mathrm{<figure-callout\; id="2"\; label="K"\; filenames="130125094640.png"\; state="\{\{state\}\}">K</figure-callout>}}_2\mathrm{CI}-\frac{\mathrm{CI}}{{(1+r)}^N}---\left(3\right)$

Wherein, f ₁Be processing cost; f ₂Be residual value; K ₂Be processing coefficient; R is average annual coefficient of depreciation, and N is life cycle, K ₂=0.05; R=0.12; N=25;

3.4, calculate direct economic benefit B ₁:

B ₁＝B ₁₁+B ₁₂+B ₁₃ (4)

B ₁₁＝CI′=C′ _i×l _i (5)

B ₁₂＝(λ ₃-λ ₂)×L ₁×T+(λ ₂-λ)×L ₁×T (6)

B ₁₃＝(λ ₃-λ ₂)×L ₂×T+(λ ₂-λ)×L ₂×T (7)

Wherein, B ₁₁, B ₁₂, B ₁₃Represent that respectively electric power facility repairing expense, important load and power supply ensure that income, general load ensure benefit with power supply; Initial outlay when CI ' plans for not carrying out differentiation, C ' _iBe i bar required specific investment when strengthening circuit and not carrying out differentiation planning, l _iBe line length; λ ₃Sale of electricity electricity price for Utilities Electric Co.; λ ₂Rate for incorporation into the power network for genco; λ is cost of electricity-generating; L ₁Be the important load number that ensures; L ₂Be the general load number that ensures; T expects power off time under the disaster scene, gets C ' _i=104.19 ten thousand yuan/km; λ ₃=600 yuan/MWh; λ ₂=300 yuan/MWh; λ=100 yuan/MWh; The value of T sees Table 2;

3.5, calculate indirect economic effect B ₂, calculate according to the Different Effects of different importance loads:

B ₂＝a ₁B ₁₂+a ₂B ₁₃ （8）

Wherein, a ₁Be the assurance coefficient of important load and power supply, a ₂Be the assurance coefficient of general load with power supply, a ₁=100, a ₂=10;

Step 4, set up the economic evaluation model, specifically may further comprise the steps:

Life cycle N when (1) determining many equipment operations

When a plurality of equipment are carried out differentiation planning, need to consider following two kinds of situations:

The cycle in serviceable life of A, distinct device is different;

B, the construction of the distinct device differentiation asynchronism(-nization) that puts into operation;

The equipment 1 of setting after differentiation designs puts into operation at first, and its cycle in serviceable life is N ₁, Δ t ₁For equipment 1 puts into operation the mistiming Δ t with respect to self ₁≡ 0, and other equipment are respectively Δ t with respect to equipment 1 mistiming of putting into operation ₂, Δ t ₃..., Δ t _m, the cycle in serviceable life is respectively N ₂, N ₃..., N _m, then life cycle N is:

N＝max(Δt ₁+N ₁,Δt ₂+N ₂,…,Δt _m+N _m) （9）

N＝25

(2) apparatus for establishing level economic evaluation model

Set disaster and occur in the interior k of life cycle, k=1,2 ..., N, N are the research cycle of individual equipment, N=25, and the time value of consideration fund, differentiation cost and differentiation benefit are all converted to comparing in disaster generation year, then:

Equipment α at the differentiation cumulative cost F (α, k) of k is:

$F(\mathrm{\&alpha;},k)={\mathrm{CI}}_{\mathrm{\&alpha;}}{(1+i)}^k+{(\mathrm{CO}+\mathrm{CM})}_{\mathrm{\&alpha;}}\frac{{(1+i)}^k-1}{i}+\left\{\begin{array}{cc}0& (k=\mathrm{1,2},\&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;,N-1)\\ {\mathrm{CD}}_{\mathrm{\&alpha;}}& (k=N)\end{array}\right.---\left(10\right)$

The direct benefit that equipment α brings and indirect benefit are: DB (α)=(B ₁+ B ₂) _α(11)

Wherein, the differentiation cost of investment of first and second the indication equipment α on equal sign the right and differentiation operating cost, differentiation maintenance cost are converted the value to k in the formula (10); The differentiation scrap cost only exists at the life cycle management end; I is annual rate, gets i=0.05; The correlation parameter of device level economic evaluation model is as shown in table 2:

The correlation parameter of table 2 device level economic evaluation model

Step 5, calculate the economic evaluation index based on the differentiation life cycle management;

The calculating of expectation net proceeds index need to be determined the average annual probability of happening of disaster, and the disaster reoccurrence period has been reflected disaster intensity and corresponding

Year probability of happening, the computing formula of the average annual probability of happening of described disaster is as follows:

P(I≥i)=1/t _i （16）

P (I 〉=i) represent that every year is more than or equal to the disaster probability of happening of given intensity i; t _iThe expression disaster reoccurrence period;

Calculate the average annual probability of happening of disaster in the specified intensity range, need to use interval probability, the computing formula of the average annual probability of happening of disaster in the specified intensity range is:

P(i ₁≤I≤i ₂)=P(I≥i ₁)-P(I≥i ₂) （17）

Wherein, P (i ₁≤ I≤i ₂) represent that disaster intensity is not less than i ₁But less than i ₂The disaster probability of happening, be interval probability.

The correlation computations parameter is as shown in table 3, and what note following " 50 years one chances " expression is that disaster intensity was greater than 30 years one chance below 50 years one chances; " 100 years one chances " expression disaster intensity was met less than 100 years one chances greater than 50 years one:

Calculating parameter under the different disaster scenes of table 3

Year cumulative cost F _N, income E (W), benefit cost ratio IR

$E\left(W\right)=P\underset{k=1}{\overset{N}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}{W}_k{(1+i)}^{N-k}=P\underset{k=1}{\overset{N}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}({\mathrm{DB}}_k-F_k){(1+i)}^{N-k}---\left(14\right)$

$\mathrm{IR}=\frac{E\left(W\right)}{F_N}---\left(15\right)$

Wherein, k represents the time that disaster occurs, and N is life cycle, and p is the average annual probability of happening of disaster, W _kThe expression annual earnings in k=N substitution F (α, k), obtain F _NF _kThe accumulative total differentiation cost that represents k, DB _kThe differentiation benefit that represents k; F _k=F (α, k), DB _k=(B ₁+ B ₂) _α, the time value of consideration fund, its conversion is last cumulative to studying life cycle.

Table 4 device level economic evaluation result

To three differentiation circuits, carry out economic evaluation by above-mentioned steps respectively, the result adds up in table 4.Accompanying drawing 5(a) and (b) be respectively the year-by-year assessment curve of circuit 3-5 when strengthening to the different designs standard.By analyzing as can be known:

(1) to same equipment, the differentiation design standards is higher, and its differentiation cost is also higher; Under the Model Condition in the text, when adopting higher design standards of combating a natural disaster grade, because the disaster that can resist simultaneously lower grade, its expectation net proceeds and benefit cost ratio also raise

(2) to different equipment, to strengthen to same design standards, its economy is different, the economy ordering was after three-line carried out the differentiation design: (3-5)〉(2-6)〉(4-6);

(3) under the Model Condition shown in the text, As time goes on the accumulative total of differentiation investment and maintenance cost, the time that disaster occurs is more late, and annual net income is lower, after a time period, even may become negative value;

(4) presentation of results the method can be used for instructing the determining of Choice and design standard of differentiation planning apparatus.In differentiation limited investment and unlimited two kinds of situations, can reasonable consideration year cumulative cost, income, three indexs of benefit cost ratio need to determine equipment and the reinforcement standard strengthened.

Embodiment 2

A kind of electric system differentiation planning economic evaluation method is carried out system-level (many equipment) economic evaluation, and Garver 6 node example models are as example in Fig. 4.

Three important line are carried out differentiation planning simultaneously, and typical scenario is as follows, and the (a) and (b) among Fig. 6, (c), (d) be corresponding scheme (1), (2), (3), (4) respectively:

Scheme (1) three-line design standards all is increased to anti-50 years one ice damages of meeting.

Scheme (2) circuit 3-5 and 2-6 design standards are increased to anti-50 years one ice damages of meeting, and circuit 4-6 is increased to anti-100 years one ice damages of meeting.

Scheme (3) circuit 3-5 and 2-6 design standards are increased to anti-100 years one ice damages of meeting, and circuit 4-6 is increased to anti-50 years one ice damages of meeting.

Scheme (4) line design standard all is increased to anti-100 years one ice damages of meeting.

Identical among step 1-3 and correlation parameter and the embodiment 1,

Step 4:

(1) it is as shown in table 5 to set the circuit parameter that puts into operation:

The table 5 circuit parameter that puts into operation

Can determine N=35 according to put into operation parameter and formula (12), and the 26th year and generation replacing in the 31st year.

(3) set up system-level economic evaluation model

$F_{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}=\underset{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_1\&Element;A}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}F({\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_1,k-{\mathrm{\&Delta;t}}_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_1})+\underset{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2\&Element;B}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}[F({\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2,N_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2}){(1+i)}^{k-(N_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2}+{\mathrm{\&Delta;t}}_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2})}+F({\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2,k-(N_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2}+{\mathrm{\&Delta;t}}_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2}))]$

$\left(12\right)$

DB _Σ＝(B ₁+B ₂) _Σ （13）

Wherein,

All be according to device level accumulative total differentiation cost function $F(\mathrm{\&alpha;},k)={\mathrm{CI}}_{\mathrm{\&alpha;}}{(1+i)}^k+{(\mathrm{CO}+\mathrm{CM})}_{\mathrm{\&alpha;}}\frac{{(1+i)}^k-1}{i}+\left\{\begin{array}{cc}0& (k=\mathrm{1,2},\&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;,N-1)\\ {\mathrm{CD}}_{\mathrm{\&alpha;}}& (k=N)\end{array}\right.$ Calculate:

$F({\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_1,k-{\mathrm{\&Delta;t}}_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_1})={\mathrm{CI}}_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_1}{(1+i)}^{k-{\mathrm{\&Delta;t}}_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_1}}+{(\mathrm{CO}+\mathrm{CM})}_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_1}\frac{{(1+i)}^{k-{\mathrm{\&Delta;t}}_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_1}}-1}{i}+\left\{\begin{array}{cc}0& (k=\mathrm{1,2},\&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;,N-1)\\ {\mathrm{CD}}_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_1}& (k=N)\end{array}\right.$

$F({\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2,N_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2})={\mathrm{CI}}_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2}{(1+i)}^{N_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2}}+{(\mathrm{CO}+\mathrm{CM})}_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2}\frac{{(1+i)}^{N_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2}}-1}{i}+\left\{\begin{array}{cc}0& (k=\mathrm{1,2},\&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;,N-1)\\ {\mathrm{CD}}_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2}& (k=N)\end{array}\right.$

$F({\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2,k-(N_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2}+{\mathrm{\&Delta;t}}_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2}))={\mathrm{CI}}_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2}{(1+i)}^{k-(N_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2}+{\mathrm{\&Delta;t}}_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2})}+{(\mathrm{CO}+\mathrm{CM})}_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2}\frac{{(1+i)}^{k-(N_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2}+{\mathrm{\&Delta;t}}_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2})}-1}{i}+\left\{\begin{array}{cc}0& (k=\mathrm{1,2},\&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;,N-1)\\ {\mathrm{CD}}_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2}& (k=N)\end{array}\right.$

Step 5, calculate the economic evaluation index based on the differentiation life cycle management;

$E\left(W\right)=P\underset{k=1}{\overset{N}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}{W}_k{(1+i)}^{N-k}=P\underset{k=1}{\overset{N}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}({\mathrm{DB}}_k-F_k){(1+i)}^{N-k}---\left(14\right)$

$\mathrm{IR}=\frac{E\left(W\right)}{F_N}---\left(15\right)$

Calculate a year cumulative cost F according to formula _N, income E (W), benefit cost ratio IR;

Wherein, k represents the time that disaster occurs, and N is life cycle, and p is the average annual probability of happening of disaster, W _kThe expression annual earnings; With k=N substitution F _ΣIn obtain F _NF _kThe accumulative total differentiation cost that represents k, DB _kThe differentiation benefit that represents k; F _k=F _Σ, DB _k=DB _Σ=(B ₁+ B ₂) _Σ

It is as shown in table 6 to obtain system-level economic evaluation result:

The system-level economic evaluation result of table 6

Four kinds of programme economic evaluation results add up in table 6, and its system-level assessment curve is seen respectively accompanying drawing 6(a)～(d).Analyze as can be known, for whole system, because each putting equipment in service asynchronism(-nization), unsmooth jump has occured in year cumulative cost, income, profit curve when having new equipment to put into operation, but secular trend and single equipment assessment curve are basically identical; Different programme economic evaluation need to consider a year cumulative cost, income and three indexs of benefit cost ratio equally, and the method can be according to the difference of differentiation plan constraint condition, for the programme of choose reasonable economy optimum provides guidance.

The present invention can realize the economic evaluation of electrical network differentiation planning, is used for instructing the determining and the ratio choosing of optimal programming scheme of selection, design standards of differentiation planning apparatus.

Claims (3)

1. an electric system differentiation planning economic evaluation method is characterized in that: may further comprise the steps;

Step 1, determine the core backbone frame; Operational mode after the clear and definite electrical network differentiation planning under the disaster scene, electric network composition is comprised of the differentiation circuit under the disaster scene, i.e. only remaining core backbone frame stable operation;

Step 2, set up economic evaluation system based on the differentiation overall life cycle cost according to electrical network differentiation planning financial cost key element, comprise differentiation cost and differentiation benefit;

The differentiation cost comprises the newly-built cost of core backbone frame and original electrical network is carried high-level improvement cost, specifically comprises differentiation cost of investment, differentiation operating cost, differentiation maintenance cost and differentiation scrap cost;

The loss that disaster may cause occurs when the differentiation benefit is " without differences design ", and namely " impairment " benefit comprises direct benefit and indirect benefit;

Step 3, calculated difference changes into this and differentiation benefit respectively:

3.1, calculated difference cost of investment CI, in the computation process, with the product of all investment conversions for unit line additional cost and line length:

CI＝C _i×l _i （1）

Wherein, C _iBe the unit additional cost that the i bar is strengthened circuit, l _iBe line length.

3.2, calculated difference operating cost CO and differentiation maintenance cost CM, calculate by differentiation cost of investment number percent:

CO+CM＝K ₁CI (2)

Wherein, K ₁Be the operation maintenance scale-up factor;

3.3, calculated difference scrap cost CD:

$\mathrm{CD}=f_1-f_2=K_2\mathrm{CI}-\frac{\mathrm{CI}}{{(1+r)}^N}---\left(3\right)$

Wherein, f ₁Be processing cost; f ₂Be residual value; K ₂Be processing coefficient; R is average annual coefficient of depreciation, and N is life cycle;

3.4, calculate direct economic benefit B ₁:

B ₁＝B ₁₁+B ₁₂+B ₁₃ (4)

B ₁₁＝CI′=C′ _i×l _i (5)

B ₁₂＝(λ ₃-λ ₂)×L ₁×T+(λ ₂-λ)×L ₁×T (6)

B ₁₃＝(λ ₃-λ ₂)×L ₂×T+(λ ₂-λ)×L ₂×T (7)

Wherein, B ₁₁, B ₁₂, B ₁₃Represent that respectively electric power facility repairing expense, important load and power supply ensure that income, general load ensure benefit with power supply; Initial outlay when CI ' plans for not carrying out differentiation, C ' _iBe i bar required specific investment when strengthening circuit and not carrying out differentiation planning, l _iBe line length; λ ₃Sale of electricity electricity price for Utilities Electric Co.; λ ₂Rate for incorporation into the power network for genco; λ is cost of electricity-generating; L ₁Be the important load number that ensures; L ₂Be the general load number that ensures; T expects power off time under the disaster scene;

3.5, calculate indirect economic effect B ₂:

B ₂＝a ₁B ₁₂+a ₂B ₁₃ （8）

Wherein, a ₁Be the assurance coefficient of important load and power supply, a ₂Be the assurance coefficient of general load with power supply;

Step 4, set up the economic evaluation model, comprise apparatus for establishing level economic evaluation model or set up system-level economic evaluation model, specifically comprise:

Life cycle N when (1) determining many equipment operations

The equipment 1 of setting after differentiation designs puts into operation at first, and its cycle in serviceable life is N ₁, Δ t ₁For equipment 1 puts into operation the mistiming Δ t with respect to self ₁≡ 0, and other equipment are respectively Δ t with respect to equipment 1 mistiming of putting into operation ₂, Δ t ₃..., Δ t _m, the cycle in serviceable life is respectively N ₂, N ₃..., N _m, then life cycle N is:

N＝max(Δt ₁+N ₁,Δt ₂+N ₂,…,Δt _m+N _m) （9）

(2) apparatus for establishing level economic evaluation model

Set disaster and occur in the interior k of life cycle, k=1,2 ..., N, N are the research cycle of individual equipment, then:

Equipment α at the accumulative total differentiation cost F (α, k) of k is:

$F(\mathrm{\&alpha;},k)={\mathrm{CI}}_{\mathrm{\&alpha;}}{(1+i)}^k+{(\mathrm{CO}+\mathrm{CM})}_{\mathrm{\&alpha;}}\frac{{(1+i)}^k-1}{i}+\left\{\begin{array}{cc}0& (k=\mathrm{1,2},\&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;\&CenterDot;,N-1)\\ {\mathrm{CD}}_{\mathrm{\&alpha;}}& (k=N)\end{array}\right.---\left(10\right)$

The direct benefit that equipment α brings and indirect benefit are: DB (α)=(B ₁+ B ₂) _α(11)

Wherein, the differentiation cost of investment of first and second the indication equipment α on equal sign the right and differentiation operating cost, differentiation maintenance cost are converted the value to k in the formula (10); The differentiation scrap cost only exists at the life cycle management end; I is annual rate;

(3) set up system-level economic evaluation model

Set the k that disaster occurs in life cycle, m ₁The individual equipment that puts into operation does not also reach self cycle in serviceable life, represents with set A:

m ₂The individual equipment of putting into operation need to be changed, and represents with set B:

On the basis of individual equipment differentiation cumulative cost F, consider the time value of fund, obtain all devices in the cumulative cost function F of the k of life cycle _ΣAnd corresponding differentiation benefit DB _Σ

$F_{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}=\underset{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_1\&Element;A}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}F({\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_1,k-{\mathrm{\&Delta;t}}_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_1})+\underset{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2\&Element;B}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}[F({\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2,N_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2}){(1+i)}^{k-(N_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2}+{\mathrm{\&Delta;t}}_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2})}+F({\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2,k-(N_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2}+{\mathrm{\&Delta;t}}_{{\mathrm{\&Omega;}}_2}))]$

$\left(12\right)$

DB _Σ＝(B ₁+B ₂) _Σ （13）

In the formula (12), F _ΣRepresent system-level cumulative cost function,

Expression put into operation but do not reach self in serviceable life equipment cumulative cost and, another part represent to have carried out equipment replacement cumulative cost and; Ω ₁Be the equipment that puts into operation but need not to change,

What represent relevant device puts into operation the mistiming Ω ₂The equipment that expression need to be changed,

With

Represent respectively relevant device cycle in serviceable life and put into operation the mistiming, i is annual rate; Direct benefit and indirect benefit sum that the design of many equipment of formula (13) expression differentiation brings.

Step 5, calculate the economic evaluation index based on the differentiation life cycle management;

The accumulative total differentiation cost F of N _N, income E (W), benefit cost ratio IR

$E\left(W\right)=P\underset{k=1}{\overset{N}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}{W}_k{(1+i)}^{N-k}=P\underset{k=1}{\overset{N}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}({\mathrm{DB}}_k-F_k){(1+i)}^{N-k}---\left(14\right)$

$\mathrm{IR}=\frac{E\left(W\right)}{F_N}---\left(15\right)$

Wherein, k represents the time that disaster occurs, and N is life cycle, and p is the average annual probability of happening of disaster, W _kThe expression annual earnings; In the device level economic evaluation, in k=N substitution F (α, k), obtain F _NIn system-level economic evaluation, with k=N substitution F _ΣIn obtain F _NF _kThe accumulative total differentiation cost that represents k, DB _kThe differentiation benefit that represents k; In the device level economic evaluation, F _k=F (α, k), DB _k=(B ₁+ B ₂) _αIn system-level economic evaluation, F _k=F _Σ, DB _k=DB _Σ=(B ₁+ B ₂) _Σ

2. a kind of electric system differentiation according to claim 1 is planned the economic evaluation method, and it is characterized in that: the computing formula of the average annual probability of happening of described disaster is as follows:

P(I≥i)=1/t _i （16）

P (I 〉=i) represent that every year is more than or equal to the disaster probability of happening of given intensity i; t _iThe expression disaster reoccurrence period;

The computing formula of the average annual probability of happening of disaster in the specified intensity range is:

P(i ₁≤I≤i ₂)=P(I≥i ₁)-P(I≥i ₂) （17）

Wherein, P (i ₁≤ I≤i ₂) represent that disaster intensity is not less than i ₁But less than i ₂The disaster probability of happening, be interval probability.

3. a kind of electric system differentiation according to claim 1 and 2 is planned the economic evaluation method, it is characterized in that: described differentiation cost of investment comprises strengthening device investment, strengthening design technological investment, differentiation engineering construction investment, the newly-increased cost of delivering;

Described differentiation operating cost comprises cost of labor, energy loss expense, material, Tables for machines student contributions pooled to pay for class activities;

Described differentiation maintenance cost comprises equipment maintenance cost, maintenance cost;

Described differentiation scrap cost comprises processing cost, residual value;

Described direct benefit comprises that electric power facility repairing expense, important load and power supply ensure that income, general load ensure income with power supply;

Described indirect benefit comprises Society rescue expense, important load damages, prevents Derived Hazard, recessive social benefit.

Images