CN103020390A - Model for forecasting similarity of rainfall and runoff - Google Patents
Model for forecasting similarity of rainfall and runoff Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a model for forecasting the similarity of rainfall and runoff. An existing technical wavelet thresholding denoising method is adopted to denoise; common linear transformation in mathematics is applied to carry out normalization processing on denoised rainfall and runoff data; then the minimum of the sum of Euclidean distances between the normalized rainfall and runoff data is calculated; and a similarity function of rainfall and runoff is fitted by utilizing an existing least square method. The model is suitable for forecasting the similarity of rainfall and runoff in all areas. On one hand, the model provides reference for the meteorological department and takes a guide effect on the hydrologic regime of a certain area; and on the other hand, according to the change condition of the similarity of rainfall and runoff, the climatic environment change of a certain area can be monitored and influence of human activities and the condition of damage to the ecological environment can be analyzed.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of model of predicting rainfall amount and run-off similarity, belong to the weather monitoring technical field.
Background technology
Recently owing to the variation of river course and hydrologic regime, the forfeiture of the soil erosion, Sediment Siltation, water pollution, bio-diversity and other transnational problems have caused the extensive concern of international community.In over half a century in the past, the impacts such as deforestation, soil erosion, climate change, mankind's activity become the basic reason of disaster.Protection, reasonable management and utilize water resource to become the key issue of State-level strategic planning.It is reported that rainfall is the main source of water resource, rainfall amount and run-off are consistance positive correlation simultaneously, yet this correlativity often demonstrates large fluctuation.In addition, climate change and mankind's activity to the acting in conjunction of ecologic environment will to calendar year 2001 rainfall amount and the variation of run-off relation take the main responsibility.
Aspect the hydrology, relation between rainfall amount and the run-off is the important topic that many scholars constantly explore for many years, research before mainly focuses on the relational model of rainfall amount and run-off, these models generally are in the situation of a given rainfall amount sequence run-off to be simulated, and these researchs show that mostly rainfall amount has similar variation to run-off.The author thinks that this similarity is inevitable.But in different areas, because complicated weather and the related coefficient that affects rainfall amount and run-off of mankind's activity present certain fluctuation.In fact, similar rainfall amount and run-off are because the impact of the deterioration of the ecological environment and mankind's activity becomes more and more outstanding, and the fluctuation of exploring some rainfall amounts regularity similar to run-off is a very interesting and challenging job.For providing reference to meteorological department, the hydrologic regime in somewhere is played directive function, utilize in the past rainfall amount and run-off data, the model that makes up rainfall amount and run-off similarity has certain realistic meaning.
Summary of the invention
The objective of the invention is for meteorological department provides reference, make up a kind of model with prediction rainfall amount higher using value, simple and run-off similarity.
The present invention adopts the denoising of existing technology small echo threshold values Denoising Algorithm, rainfall amount and run-off data after using linear transformation commonly used in the mathematics to denoising are carried out normalized again, calculate again the minimum value of the Euclidean distance sum between the rainfall amount and run-off data after the normalization, and with the similarity function of existing least square fitting rainfall amount and run-off.
The present invention realizes by following technical proposal: a kind of model of predicting rainfall amount and run-off similarity comprises following each step:
(1) utilize the hydrometric station monitoring to obtain rainfall amount and run-off data, the rainfall amount and the run-off data that adopt existing technology small echo threshold values Denoising Algorithm that the hydrometric station point is collected are carried out denoising, namely obtain the different denoised signal of same rainfall amount or run-off input signal by the threshold values of regulating the Wavelet Denoising Method function wden among the existing software matlab, and (signal to noise ratio (S/N ratio) is larger to calculate respectively signal to noise ratio (S/N ratio) with input signal and each denoised signal, illustrate that the noise that is mixed in the input signal is less, that is to say that signal to noise ratio (S/N ratio) is the bigger the better), relatively each signal to noise ratio (S/N ratio) is big or small, choose make the signal to noise ratio (S/N ratio) maximum the small echo threshold values as the denoising threshold values, thereby obtain the best rainfall amount of denoising effect and run-off data;
(2) linear transformation commonly used rainfall amount and run-off data after to denoising are carried out normalized in the data mathematics that step (1) is gathered, and are about to that nondimensional rainfall amount and run-off data are illustrated in the same plane rectangular coordinate system take year as the time interval after the unit of removal;
(3) to Euclidean distance formula structure rainfall amount commonly used in the data mathematics of step (2) collection and the Similarity Model between the run-off, namely by the rainfall amount after the calculating normalized and the Euclidean distance between the run-off, Euclidean distance sum in trying to achieve for successive years, then the minimum value of compute euclidian distances sum is in order to weigh the similarity of rainfall amount and run-off;
(4) with the existing least square method of the data that draws in the step (3), use matlab software commonly used, simulate the similarity function of rainfall amount and run-off, in order to assess the similarity of rainfall amount and run-off.
Can be with reference to property for rainfall amount after the denoising and run-off data are had, use linear transformation commonly used in the mathematics will the unit of removal after nondimensional rainfall amount and run-off data be illustrated in the same plane rectangular coordinate system take year as the time interval, thereby finish the normalized of rainfall amount and run-off data.
Use existing Euclidean distance computing formula, rainfall amount after the calculating normalized and the Euclidean distance between the run-off, Euclidean distance sum in trying to achieve for successive years, the minimum value of compute euclidian distances sum then is in order to weigh the similarity of rainfall amount and run-off.
By existing matlab software, utilize existing least square method, simulate the similarity function of rainfall amount and run-off, in order to assess the similarity of rainfall amount and run-off.
The effect that the present invention possesses and advantage:
1, made up a similarity model based on the Euclidean distance between rainfall amount and the run-off;
2, forecast model of the present invention is simple, can sensitive, quickly and reliably predict the similarity of rainfall amount and the run-off in somewhere, having for the meteorological department in a lot of areas can reference and the value of application, provides reference to them, hydrologic regime to the somewhere plays directive function.
Forecast model of the present invention is applicable to the similarity prediction of rainfall amount and the run-off of all regions.Provide reference for meteorological department on the one hand, the hydrologic regime to the somewhere plays directive function; On the other hand can be according to the situation of change of rainfall amount and run-off similarity, the climatic environment in monitoring somewhere changes, and analyzes the impact of mankind's activity, the destruction situation of ecologic environment.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 is rainfall amount raw data of the present invention;
Fig. 2 is run-off raw data of the present invention;
Fig. 3 is the rainfall amount data behind the small echo threshold values noise reduction of the present invention;
Fig. 4 is the run-off data behind the small echo threshold values noise reduction of the present invention;
Fig. 5 is rainfall amount and the run-off data after the conversion of the present invention;
Fig. 6 is the similarity function of the initial data of match of the present invention;
Fig. 7 is the similarity function of the data of denoising of the present invention.
Embodiment
The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with embodiment and accompanying drawing, but protection scope of the present invention is not limited to this.
For understanding the situation of change of somewhere rainfall amount and run-off similarity, the climatic environment of monitoring this area changes, and analyzes the impact of mankind's activity and the destruction situation of ecologic environment, has made up a kind of model of predicting rainfall amount and run-off similarity.Obtain 10 years (from 2001 to 2010) hydrographic datas (as shown in Figure 1) of this area's rainfall amount and run-off measurement every day from meteorological department, use the denoising of small echo threshold values Denoising Algorithm, because signal to noise ratio (S/N ratio) equals the ratio of input signal and noise, noise can't directly be measured, so the difference with input signal and its denoised signal represents noise, and signal to noise ratio (S/N ratio) is larger, illustrates that the noise that is mixed in the input signal is less, that is to say that signal to noise ratio (S/N ratio) is the bigger the better.Obtain the different denoised signal of same rainfall amount or run-off input signal by the threshold values of regulating existing Wavelet Denoising Method function wden among the matlab, and calculate respectively signal to noise ratio (S/N ratio) with input signal and each denoised signal, relatively each signal to noise ratio (S/N ratio) is big or small, be respectively 18.31 and 64.25 by the signal to noise ratio (S/N ratio) that compares rainfall amount and run-off maximum, so choose its corresponding small echo threshold values as the denoising threshold values, thereby obtain the hydrographic data (as shown in Figure 2) after this area's rainfall amount and the run-off denoising.Can be with reference to property for rainfall amount after the denoising and run-off data are had, use linear transformation commonly used in the mathematics will the unit of removal after nondimensional rainfall amount and run-off 10 annual datas be illustrated in the same plane rectangular coordinate system with the form of linear fold lines, realize the normalized of rainfall amount and run-off data after the denoising, obtain rainfall amount and run-off data (as shown in Figure 3) after the conversion.Find between rainfall amount and the run-off after the similarity relation by calculating from the Euclidean distance of the rainfall amount of calendar year 2001 to 2010 year and run-off, the similarity function that adopts existing least square fitting to go out rainfall amount and run-off is Y=20X-100, and the related coefficient before and after rainfall amount and the run-off denoising be respectively 0.982 and 0.983(as shown in Figure 4).By above simple operating process, this forecast model is sensitive, quickly and reliably doped the similarity of this area's rainfall amount and run-off.
Claims (4)
1. model of predicting rainfall amount and run-off similarity is characterized in that comprising following each step:
(1) utilize the hydrometric station monitoring to obtain rainfall amount and run-off data, the rainfall amount and the run-off data that adopt existing technology small echo threshold values Denoising Algorithm that the hydrometric station point is collected are carried out denoising, namely obtain the different denoised signal of same rainfall amount or run-off input signal by the threshold values of regulating the Wavelet Denoising Method function wden among the existing software matlab, and (signal to noise ratio (S/N ratio) is larger to calculate respectively signal to noise ratio (S/N ratio) with input signal and each denoised signal, illustrate that the noise that is mixed in the input signal is less, that is to say that signal to noise ratio (S/N ratio) is the bigger the better), relatively each signal to noise ratio (S/N ratio) is big or small, choose make the signal to noise ratio (S/N ratio) maximum the small echo threshold values as the denoising threshold values, thereby obtain the best rainfall amount of denoising effect and run-off data;
(2) linear transformation commonly used rainfall amount and run-off data after to denoising are carried out normalized in the data mathematics that step (1) is gathered, and are about to that nondimensional rainfall amount and run-off data are illustrated in the same plane rectangular coordinate system take year as the time interval after the unit of removal;
(3) to Euclidean distance formula structure rainfall amount commonly used in the data mathematics of step (2) collection and the Similarity Model between the run-off, namely by the rainfall amount after the calculating normalized and the Euclidean distance between the run-off, Euclidean distance sum in trying to achieve for successive years, then the minimum value of compute euclidian distances sum is in order to weigh the similarity of rainfall amount and run-off;
(4) with the existing least square method of the data that draws in the step (3), use matlab software commonly used, simulate the similarity function of rainfall amount and run-off, in order to assess the similarity of rainfall amount and run-off.
2. a kind of model of predicting rainfall amount and run-off similarity according to claim 1, it is characterized in that: can be with reference to property for rainfall amount after the denoising and run-off data are had, use linear transformation commonly used in the mathematics will the unit of removal after nondimensional rainfall amount and run-off data be illustrated in the same plane rectangular coordinate system take year as the time interval, thereby finish the normalized of rainfall amount and run-off data.
3. a kind of model of predicting rainfall amount and run-off similarity according to claim 1, it is characterized in that: use existing Euclidean distance computing formula, rainfall amount after the calculating normalized and the Euclidean distance between the run-off, Euclidean distance sum in trying to achieve for successive years, then the minimum value of compute euclidian distances sum is in order to weigh the similarity of rainfall amount and run-off.
4. a kind of model of predicting rainfall amount and run-off similarity according to claim 1, it is characterized in that: by existing matlab software, utilize existing least square method, simulate the similarity function of rainfall amount and run-off, in order to assess the similarity of rainfall amount and run-off.
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Cited By (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN104594280A (en) * | 2014-05-19 | 2015-05-06 | 贵州省水利水电勘测设计研究院 | Stochastic simulation method of runoff process and irrigation water process long sequence |
| CN105868837A (en) * | 2016-01-13 | 2016-08-17 | 辽宁省水利水电科学研究院 | Early-warning method for multi-level rain resistance ability of medium and small basins |
| CN109117984B (en) * | 2018-07-10 | 2020-06-19 | 上海交通大学 | Rice field runoff prediction and nitrogen and phosphorus loss estimation method |
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| US20020178179A1 (en) * | 2001-04-05 | 2002-11-28 | Eric Rosenblum | Method for planning, communicating and evaluating projects that impact the environment |
| CN102122370A (en) * | 2011-03-07 | 2011-07-13 | 北京师范大学 | Method for predicting river basin climatic change and analyzing tendency |
| CN102288229A (en) * | 2011-05-11 | 2011-12-21 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Runoff quantity simulating and predicting method |
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US20020178179A1 (en) * | 2001-04-05 | 2002-11-28 | Eric Rosenblum | Method for planning, communicating and evaluating projects that impact the environment |
| CN102122370A (en) * | 2011-03-07 | 2011-07-13 | 北京师范大学 | Method for predicting river basin climatic change and analyzing tendency |
| CN102288229A (en) * | 2011-05-11 | 2011-12-21 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Runoff quantity simulating and predicting method |
Non-Patent Citations (1)
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Cited By (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN104594280A (en) * | 2014-05-19 | 2015-05-06 | 贵州省水利水电勘测设计研究院 | Stochastic simulation method of runoff process and irrigation water process long sequence |
| CN105868837A (en) * | 2016-01-13 | 2016-08-17 | 辽宁省水利水电科学研究院 | Early-warning method for multi-level rain resistance ability of medium and small basins |
| CN109117984B (en) * | 2018-07-10 | 2020-06-19 | 上海交通大学 | Rice field runoff prediction and nitrogen and phosphorus loss estimation method |
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