CN102983567B - Assessment method of power grid lifeline - Google Patents
Assessment method of power grid lifeline Download PDFInfo
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- CN102983567B CN102983567B CN201210449836.0A CN201210449836A CN102983567B CN 102983567 B CN102983567 B CN 102983567B CN 201210449836 A CN201210449836 A CN 201210449836A CN 102983567 B CN102983567 B CN 102983567B
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Abstract
The invention relates to an assessment method of a power grid lifeline. The assessment method of the power grid lifeline considers the effect of the difference of meteorological conditions and construction standards, and defines the fault rate, repair rate and equivalent unavailability of a power grid component under the different meteorological conditions and construction standards, thereby enabling the assessment method of the power grid lifeline to achieve effective assessment to the power grid lifeline. In addition, the assessment method of the power grid lifeline further can, and quantitatively reflect the improvement effect of the implement of a lifeline project improve on the reliability of an existing power grid through comparative analysis with a lifeline or with no lifeline.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to power grid security field, particularly a kind of electrical network appraisal procedure.
Background technology
In recent years, global climate abnormality, extreme natural calamity takes place frequently, and is day by day paid attention to the safety problem of the closely-related electrical network of national economy.The enforcement of electrical network lifeline engineering can effectively increase the anti-disaster ability of electrical network, and the core of electrical network lifeline engineering is to find fragile node and the relevant passway for transmitting electricity of electrical network.Carry out newly-built or transformation circuit with higher construction criteria, to preserve the key rack of electrical network under extreme natural calamity, for important load is powered continuously, and provide startup power supply for follow-up power system restoration.Traditional electric network reliability appraisal procedure does not relate to the problem that differentiation construction is relevant, is difficult to meet the particular/special requirement of lifeline electric network reliability assessment.
Summary of the invention
For solving the problems of the technologies described above, the invention discloses a kind of appraisal procedure of electrical network lifeline, it is characterized in that, described method comprises the steps:
(a) network topology structure of the described electrical network of foundation, the construction criteria parameter of the line parameter circuit value of each branch road and each node parameter and every circuit in initialization electrical network, and be conventional construction criteria by the construction criteria parameter initialization of every circuit in electrical network;
(b) initial sample number of times is set
k=1 and total frequency in sampling
k=N, wherein: described total frequency in sampling N is depending on Evaluation accuracy, and required precision is higher, and N value is larger;
(c) according to the complexity of electrical network place geographical conditions, meteorological condition is divided into n class, and scale and the Evaluation accuracy of foundation electrical network to be assessed, electrical network is refined as to m grid, this electrical network is total
n m plant possible climate state, and the geographic area at each grid place occurs that the probability of a certain meteorological condition obtains from statistics or from local meteorological department;
(d) every circuit in electrical network is numbered, supposes to amount to R bar circuit in described electrical network, to i article of circuit in electrical network, have: 1≤i≤R, and i is natural number, i initial value is 1, and construction criteria K_cs[i to every circuit] assignment is numerical value corresponding to described conventional construction criteria;
(e) suppose to comprise j meteorological condition in the region of i article of line crossing, obviously there is 1≤j≤n, and j is natural number, this i article of circuit is equivalent to j section, and this i article of circuit amounts to by j different two-terminal element and connects, wherein j two-terminal element of i article of circuit is by failure rate λ [i] [j], repair rate μ [i] [j] and this two-terminal element equivalence degree of unavailability s[i] [j] description, and element λ [i] [j] and μ [i] [j] in two-dimensional array λ and μ are all meteorological condition K_w[i of i article of circuit j section] [j] and i article of line construction standard K _ cs[i] function, element s[i in two-dimensional array s] [j] be the function of λ [i] [j] and μ [i] [j], specific as follows:
（1），
（2），
（3），
Wherein, K_w[i] [j] determined by the probability of meteorological condition within the scope of i article of circuit j section institute grid coverage,
l[i] [j] represents that j section accounts for the percentage of this i article of circuit overall length; The equivalent degree of unavailability ss[i of i article of circuit] equal s[i] [1], s[i] [2] ..., s[i] and [j] sum; Then, i is accumulated once;
(f) circulation execution step (e), until i=R, thereby obtain ss[1], ss[2] ..., ss[R] and amount to the equivalent degree of unavailability of R bar circuit; Due to ss[1], ss[2] ..., ss[R] and self be all less than 1, so extract in [0,1]
rindividual random number t[k], wherein 1≤i≤R, and k is natural number, k initial value is 1, from k=1 to k=R, ss[k relatively one by one] and t[k]: as ss[k]>=t[k] time, judge line fault, faulty line is excised; Otherwise circuit is normal, thereby obtain at random a definite system of described electrical network;
(g), for described system, carry out trend and calculate, the reliability index of statistics whole system and each node; And k is accumulated once;
(h) circulation execution step (e), (f), (g), until k=
nthereby, statistics whole system and the final reliability index of each node;
(i) all nodes are sorted according to the height of reliability index, select reliability minimum
zindividual node is as lifeline substation at node, and the circuit being attached thereto is defined as lifeline circuit, wherein
zvalue with reference to the actual construction requirements of electrical network, for described lifeline transformer station and described lifeline circuit, implement electrical network lifeline construction criteria.
Embodiment
In order to solve the problems of the technologies described above, a kind of appraisal procedure of electrical network lifeline is disclosed in one embodiment of the present of invention, it is characterized in that, described method comprises the steps:
(a) network topology structure of the described electrical network of foundation, the construction criteria parameter of the line parameter circuit value of each branch road and each node parameter and every circuit in initialization electrical network, and be conventional construction criteria by the construction criteria parameter initialization of every circuit in electrical network;
(b) initial sample number of times is set
k=1 and total frequency in sampling
k=N, wherein: described total frequency in sampling N is depending on Evaluation accuracy, and required precision is higher, and N value is larger;
(c) according to the complexity of electrical network place geographical conditions, meteorological condition is divided into n class, and scale and the Evaluation accuracy of foundation electrical network to be assessed, electrical network is refined as to m grid, this electrical network is total
n m plant possible climate state, and the geographic area at each grid place occurs that the probability of a certain meteorological condition obtains from statistics or from local meteorological department;
(d) every circuit in electrical network is numbered, suppose to amount in described electrical network R bar circuit, to i article of circuit in electrical network, have: 1≤i≤R, and i is natural number, i initial value is 1, and construction criteria parameter K _ cs[i to i article of circuit] assignment is numerical value corresponding to described conventional construction criteria;
(e) suppose to comprise j meteorological condition in the region of i article of line crossing, obviously there is 1≤j≤n, and j is natural number, this i article of circuit is equivalent to j section, and this i article of circuit amounts to by j different two-terminal element and connects, wherein j two-terminal element of i article of circuit is by failure rate λ [i] [j], repair rate μ [i] [j] and this two-terminal element equivalence degree of unavailability s[i] [j] description, and element λ [i] [j] and μ [i] [j] in two-dimensional array λ and μ are all meteorological condition K_w[i of i article of circuit j section] [j] and i article of line construction standard K _ cs[i] function, element s[i in two-dimensional array s] [j] be the function of λ [i] [j] and μ [i] [j], specific as follows:
（1），
（2），
（3），
Wherein, K_w[i] [j] determined by the probability of meteorological condition within the scope of i article of circuit j section institute grid coverage,
l[i] [j] represents that j section accounts for the percentage of this i article of circuit overall length; The equivalent degree of unavailability ss[i of i article of circuit] equal s[i] [1], s[i] [2] ..., s[i] and [j] sum; Then, i is accumulated once;
(f) circulation execution step (e), until i=R, thereby obtain ss[1], ss[2] ..., ss[R] and amount to the equivalent degree of unavailability of R bar circuit; Due to ss[1], ss[2] ..., ss[R] and self be all less than 1, so extract in [0,1]
rindividual random number t[k], wherein 1≤i≤R, and k is natural number, k initial value is 1, from k=1 to k=R, ss[k relatively one by one] and t[k]: as ss[k]>=t[k] time, judge line fault, faulty line is excised; Otherwise circuit is normal, thereby obtain at random a definite system of described electrical network;
(g), for described system, carry out trend and calculate, the reliability index of statistics whole system and each node; And k is accumulated once;
(h) circulation execution step (e), (f), (g), until k=
nthereby, statistics whole system and the final reliability index of each node;
(i) all nodes are sorted according to the height of reliability index, select reliability minimum
zindividual node is as lifeline substation at node, and the circuit being attached thereto is defined as lifeline circuit, wherein
zvalue with reference to the actual construction requirements of electrical network, for described lifeline transformer station and described lifeline circuit, implement electrical network lifeline construction criteria.
For above-described embodiment, it has been introduced meteorological condition and construction criteria among the appraisal procedure about lifeline, and this point is easy to understand from above-mentioned formula (1) to (3).That is to say, this embodiment has considered meteorological condition and the impact of construction criteria difference on electric network reliability, is more conducive to determine lifeline circuit and lifeline transformer station, thereby is conducive to further implement electrical network lifeline construction criteria.Lifeline transformer station and lifeline circuit are implemented to electrical network lifeline construction criteria, mean lifeline circuit and lifeline transformer station have been carried out to consolidation process, this is inevitable from part and greatly improve on the whole the reliability of electrical network, is convenient to electrical network in the various extreme meteorological conditions of later stage reply.
With regard to the concrete steps of above-described embodiment, its step (a) can be interpreted as to the initialization section of appraisal procedure to (d), step (e) is interpreted as to the core of the method to (f), step (g) is extremely (i) interpreted as to the post-processed part of the method.Wherein, core technology thinking of the present invention has been embodied in initialization section and core, post-processed part belongs to the utilization to prior art, there are a lot of implementations of the prior art because calculate to obtain reliability index by trend, this point does not belong to innovation of the present invention place, so it will not go into details herein.
With regard to the N of above-described embodiment, it has reflected the precision of assessment, and N is larger, and precision is higher.Therefore, in the specific implementation, N also can possess extra implication, such as N can represent the emulation time limit: if suppose that trend of every calculating (k increase by 1) represents 1 year, the N N that represented emulation.
With regard to this concept of reliability index, in the prior art, it can be, but not limited to comprise: power failure probability, power shortage are expected, and expected energy not supplied.
With regard to power failure probability, suppose certain assessment after: for certain node p, if emulation N time, there is the p node failure of N1 time, finish node p power failure probability is N1/N; The system definite for certain, if emulation N time, have N2 electrical network to have one and Above Transmission Lines fault, system blackout probability is: N2/N.
With regard to power shortage is expected, suppose after certain assessment: once, if there is line fault, and after troubleshooting, the total output power of electrical network can reduce Δ s in every emulation; If fault-free, total output power is constant.So, the power Σ Δ s that N emulation is lost is altogether for final power shortage is expected.
With regard to expected energy not supplied, suppose after certain assessment: once, if there is line fault, and after troubleshooting, total output power can reduce Δ s in every emulation, once fault correction time t determines so, can calculate fault grid loss powering quantity value Δ Q this time; If fault-free, Δ Q is 0.So, the powering quantity Σ Δ Q that N emulation is lost is altogether final expected energy not supplied.
In addition, preferred, in another embodiment: according to described lifeline construction criteria, upgrade the corresponding construction criteria K_cs value of described lifeline circuit, redefined failure rate, repair rate and the circuit equivalence degree of unavailability of lifeline circuit by above-mentioned formula (1), (2), (3), to substitute the original line parameter circuit value of this circuit; And then again from k=1, carry out above-mentioned steps (e), (f), (g), (h), thereby obtain the new reliability index of whole system and each node under the construction criteria of lifeline.
With regard to above-described embodiment, its object is to obtain: when under the constant prerequisite of the construction criteria of all the other circuits except lifeline circuit in electrical network, upgrade after the corresponding construction criteria K_cs value of lifeline circuit the new reliability index of whole system and each node.Be not difficult to find out, this embodiment is for the ease of the reliability index under the conventional construction criteria of new reliability index and original default is contrasted, thereby relatively: the reliability index of whole system and each node and the reliability index of whole system and each node while having lifeline during without lifeline.If the later stage wishes further to contrast the situation under other construction criterias, better to ensure safety and the reliability of electrical network, so also can be in other embodiments by the result store of assessment at every turn output.
In sum, the present invention, taking meteorological condition and construction criteria as starting point, can realize the Efficient Evaluation of electrical network lifeline.In addition comparative analysis that, the present invention can also be when having or not lifeline, improvement effect with the enforcement of quantitative response lifeline engineering to existing electric network reliability.
Applied specific case herein principle of the present invention and execution mode are set forth, the explanation of above embodiment is only for helping to understand method of the present invention and core concept thereof; Meanwhile, for those skilled in the art, according to thought of the present invention, all will change in specific embodiments and applications.In sum, this description should not be construed as limitation of the present invention.
Claims (2)
1. an appraisal procedure for electrical network lifeline, is characterized in that, described method comprises the steps:
(a) network topology structure of the described electrical network of foundation, the construction criteria parameter of the line parameter circuit value of each branch road and each node parameter and every circuit in initialization electrical network, and be conventional construction criteria by the construction criteria parameter initialization of every circuit in electrical network;
(b) initial sample number of times is set
k=1 and total frequency in sampling
k=N, wherein: described total frequency in sampling N is depending on Evaluation accuracy, and required precision is higher, and N value is larger;
(c) according to the complexity of electrical network place geographical conditions, meteorological condition is divided into n class, and scale and the Evaluation accuracy of foundation electrical network to be assessed, electrical network is refined as to m grid, this electrical network is total
n m plant possible climate state, and the geographic area at each grid place occurs that the probability of a certain meteorological condition obtains from statistics or from local meteorological department;
(d) every circuit in electrical network is numbered, supposes to amount to R bar circuit in described electrical network, to i article of circuit in electrical network, have: 1≤i≤R, and i is natural number, i initial value is 1, and construction criteria K_cs[i to every circuit] assignment is numerical value corresponding to described conventional construction criteria;
(e) suppose to comprise j meteorological condition in the region of i article of line crossing, obviously there is 1≤j≤n, and j is natural number, this i article of circuit is equivalent to j section, and this i article of circuit amounts to by j different two-terminal element and connects, wherein j two-terminal element of i article of circuit is by failure rate λ [i] [j], repair rate μ [i] [j] and this two-terminal element equivalence degree of unavailability s[i] [j] description, and element λ [i] [j] and μ [i] [j] in two-dimensional array λ and μ are all meteorological condition K_w[i of i article of circuit j section] [j] and i article of line construction standard K _ cs[i] function, element s[i in two-dimensional array s] [j] be the function of λ [i] [j] and μ [i] [j], specific as follows:
（1），
（2），
（3），
Wherein, K_w[i] [j] determined by the probability of meteorological condition within the scope of i article of circuit j section institute grid coverage,
l[i] [j] represents that j section accounts for the percentage of this i article of circuit overall length; The equivalent degree of unavailability ss[i of i article of circuit] equal s[i] [1], s[i] [2] ..., s[i] and [j] sum; Then, i is accumulated once;
(f) circulation execution step (e), until i=R, thereby obtain ss[1], ss[2] ..., ss[R] and amount to the equivalent degree of unavailability of R bar circuit; Due to ss[1], ss[2] ..., ss[R] and self be all less than 1, so extract in [0,1]
rindividual random number t[k], wherein 1≤i≤R, and k is natural number, k initial value is 1, from k=1 to k=R, ss[k relatively one by one] and t[k]: as ss[k]>=t[k] time, judge line fault, faulty line is excised; Otherwise circuit is normal, thereby obtain at random a definite system of described electrical network;
(g), for described system, carry out trend and calculate, the reliability index of statistics whole system and each node; And k is accumulated once;
(h) circulation execution step (e), (f), (g), until k=
nthereby, statistics whole system and the final reliability index of each node;
(i) all nodes are sorted according to the height of reliability index, select reliability minimum
zindividual node is as lifeline substation at node, and the circuit being attached thereto is defined as lifeline circuit, wherein
zvalue with reference to the actual construction requirements of electrical network, for described lifeline transformer station and lifeline circuit, implement electrical network lifeline construction criteria.
2. appraisal procedure according to claim 1, it is characterized in that: according to described lifeline construction criteria, upgrade the corresponding construction criteria parameter K _ cs of described lifeline circuit value, redefined failure rate, repair rate and the circuit equivalence degree of unavailability of lifeline circuit by above-mentioned formula (1), (2), (3), to substitute the original line parameter circuit value of this circuit; And then again from k=1, carry out above-mentioned steps (e), (f), (g), (h), thereby obtain under the construction criteria of lifeline the new reliability index of whole system and each node.
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Citations (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP2000270477A (en) * | 1999-03-17 | 2000-09-29 | Fuji Electric Co Ltd | Parallel processing method in assumed accident analysis of electric power system |
| CN102013085A (en) * | 2010-12-14 | 2011-04-13 | 天津市电力公司 | Evaluation method for distribution network reliability |
| CN102437654A (en) * | 2011-12-31 | 2012-05-02 | 国电南京自动化股份有限公司 | Station control realizing method based on monitoring system |
| CN202475017U (en) * | 2011-12-27 | 2012-10-03 | 许继集团有限公司 | System integrated with regulation and control based on networked protection |
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Patent Citations (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP2000270477A (en) * | 1999-03-17 | 2000-09-29 | Fuji Electric Co Ltd | Parallel processing method in assumed accident analysis of electric power system |
| CN102013085A (en) * | 2010-12-14 | 2011-04-13 | 天津市电力公司 | Evaluation method for distribution network reliability |
| CN202475017U (en) * | 2011-12-27 | 2012-10-03 | 许继集团有限公司 | System integrated with regulation and control based on networked protection |
| CN102437654A (en) * | 2011-12-31 | 2012-05-02 | 国电南京自动化股份有限公司 | Station control realizing method based on monitoring system |
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