CN102968675A - Method for predicting cotton aphid population quantity in short term - Google Patents

Method for predicting cotton aphid population quantity in short term Download PDF

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CN102968675A
CN102968675A CN2012105181023A CN201210518102A CN102968675A CN 102968675 A CN102968675 A CN 102968675A CN 2012105181023 A CN2012105181023 A CN 2012105181023A CN 201210518102 A CN201210518102 A CN 201210518102A CN 102968675 A CN102968675 A CN 102968675A
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cotten aphid
aphid population
population
cotton aphid
temperature
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CN102968675B (en
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吕昭智
苗伟
高桂珍
夏德萍
孙平
王佩玲
罗朝辉
马吉宏
张娟
徐养诚
周生梅
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Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography of CAS
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Abstract

The invention relates to a method for predicting cotton aphid population quantity in short term. According to the method, a function relationship between the temperature and the cotton aphid population increase is established according to the cotton aphid population life tables at different temperatures on the basis of the field investigated data, and the change of the cotton aphid population quantity in the next time period (about 5 days) can be predicted by using an exponential increase method through a recursive calculation manner on the basis of field cotton aphid population investigation, so that the short-term quantity prediction on the cotton aphid population is achieved, the prediction correctness on the cotton aphid population is improved, benefit is brought to the ecological control and scientific management for the cotton aphid in production, basis is provided for the scientific decision of control measures of the departments and guarantee is provided to the cotton production.

Description

A kind of method of short-term forecasting cotten aphid population quantity
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of cotten aphid population quantity short-term forecasting method, belong to the agricultural insect pests control field.
Background technology
Cotten aphid is worldwide cotton-plant pest-insects, also is one of the Severe pests in China the Changjiang river, the Yellow River and cotton region, northwest.Owing to the reasons such as unreasonable use of for many years continuous cropping of climate warming, Yield of Cotton In Large Area and a large amount of agricultural chemicals, cotten aphid frequently breaks out in Xinjiang cotton, often causes the cotton underproduction to reach 10-30%, and Cotton in China production and industry development have been consisted of serious threat.Affect the many factors of cotten aphid population quantity, make the bottleneck that the cotten aphid population quantity is predicted to be become in the present cotton production.Solve cotten aphid population quantity forecasting problem, will establish good basis for high cotton yield.
The method of prediction cotten aphid population quantity has following several at present: 1) aphid damage is divided into 5 ranks, according to climate change, predicts the rank of its harm, error is relatively little, but lacks theoretical the support; 2) model of Aphed population prediction much is statistical model, and model returns to be tested relatively goodly, but actual application value is lower, does not have ubiquity, and in different year and zones of different, model error is very large; 3) based on Meteorological Characteristics and cotten aphid process data, adopt cluster and discriminatory analysis means, to carry out the time and sort out, actual application value is lower.
Temperature is to affect cotten aphid to grow, survive and the key factor of the vital movement such as breeding, is the important evidence of carrying out Population forecast, science decision prophylactico-therapeutic measures in producing.The present invention is directed to the defectives such as inaccuracy of cotten aphid short-term quantitative forecast in the prior art, on field investigation data basis, in conjunction with meteorological department's temperature Element forecast data, develop a kind of method of short-term forecasting cotten aphid population quantity, in conjunction with at present cotten aphid investigation and prediction actual conditions, realize quickly and accurately cotten aphid short-term quantitative forecast.
Summary of the invention
The object of the invention is to, a kind of method of short-term forecasting cotten aphid population quantity is provided, the method according to the cotten aphid Population life-table of different temperatures, is set up the funtcional relationship of temperature and cotten aphid population growth on the basis of field field survey data; On the basis of field cotten aphid census, by the recursion account form, the variation of (after 5 days) cotten aphid population quantity that the method for employing exponential increase is predicted next time period, thereby reach the short-term quantitative forecast to the cotten aphid population, improve the accuracy of cotten aphid Population forecast, be conducive to produce bionomic control and scientific management to cotten aphid, for administrative authority's science decision prophylactico-therapeutic measures provides foundation, for cotton production provides safeguard.
The method of a kind of short-term forecasting cotten aphid population quantity of the present invention follows these steps to carry out:
A, comprehensive collection locality be cotten aphid population data and each meteorological site Monitoring Data for many years, obtain the cotten aphid population quantity dynamically and every day medial temperature numerical value;
B, utilize the cotten aphid population given age life table under the local different temperatures, obtain cotten aphid population intrinsic rate of increase under the different temperatures, set up the nonlinear function of cotten aphid population intrinsic rate of increase and temperature;
C, medial temperature predicted value every day that next time period is continuous 5 days are taken the mean, and with this average substitution functional equation, draw the cotten aphid intrinsic rate of increase under this temperature;
D, utilize the theory of index number model of population growth, cotten aphid intrinsic rate of increase numerical value substitution model is drawn cotten aphid population quantity predicted value after 5 days;
E, utilize for many years field cotten aphid population quantity Monitoring Data, the revised theory model based on correction model and temperature forecast value, adopts recurrence method, finishes cotten aphid population short-term quantitative forecast.
The technical issues that need to address of the present invention, the defectives such as inaccuracy for cotten aphid short-term quantitative forecast in the prior art, a kind of method of short-term forecasting cotten aphid population quantity is provided, in conjunction with at present cotten aphid investigation and prediction actual conditions, realizes quickly and accurately the short-term quantitative forecast to cotten aphid.
The method of short-term forecasting cotten aphid population quantity of the present invention, the calculating of cotten aphid intrinsic rate of increase in the method, based on cotten aphid life table under the different temperatures, obtain cotten aphid population intrinsic rate of increase under the different temperatures, set up different temperatures and cotten aphid population intrinsic rate of increase nonlinear function: r m=0.42843-0.09639Te+0.00703Te 2-0.00013Te 3
Wherein, R MExpression cotten aphid population intrinsic rate of increase, TE represents T to T+1 time period temperature-averaging value, temperature data derives from local weather station predicted value;
Based on the exponential model of population growth, the model that theorizes, predict next time period cotten aphid population quantity:
Figure BDA00002535534000031
N wherein TExpression T is field cotten aphid population quantity (the field investigation data can be single tree louse amount, also can be three tree louse amounts or blinds aphid amount) constantly, N T+1Expression T+1 is population quantity constantly, and T represents cotten aphid investigation interval time;
Utilize for many years population quantity, the revised theory model based on correction model and temperature forecast value, adopts recurrence method, finishes the cotten aphid population quantity prediction after 5 days:
Wherein, N T+1 (predicted value)Expression T+1 is cotten aphid population quantity predicted value constantly, N TExpression T is field cotten aphid population quantity constantly, R MExpression cotten aphid population intrinsic rate of increase, T represent cotten aphid population quantity investigation interval time.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 is route map of the present invention;
Fig. 2 is the present invention figure that predicts the outcome, wherein-■-expression observed reading ,-△-expression predicted value.
Embodiment
Embodiment
Take Xinjiang Kurle region cotten aphid generation in 2007 quantity as example, to N T+1The cotten aphid population quantity is predicted constantly;
The comprehensive collection locality is cotten aphid population data and meteorological site Monitoring Data for many years, obtain the cotten aphid population quantity dynamically and every day medial temperature numerical value;
Calculate the cotten aphid intrinsic rate of increase: based on the cotten aphid population given age life table under the local different temperatures, obtain cotten aphid population intrinsic rate of increase under the different temperatures, set up the nonlinear function of cotten aphid population intrinsic rate of increase and temperature:
r m=0.42843-0.09639Te+0.00703Te 2-0.00013Te 3
Medial temperature predicted value every day in the 5 days futures that will predict is taken the mean, and with the above-mentioned functional equation of this average substitution, draws the cotten aphid intrinsic rate of increase under this temperature;
Based on the theory of index number model of population growth, cotten aphid intrinsic rate of increase numerical value substitution model is drawn cotten aphid population quantity predicted value after 5 days;
Cotten aphid population quantity theoretical value:
Figure BDA00002535534000041
Utilize for many years field cotten aphid population quantity Monitoring Data, the revised theory model based on correction model and temperature forecast value, adopts recurrence method, finishes cotten aphid population short-term quantitative forecast.
To cotten aphid population in theory correction and the recursion of quantity:
Figure BDA00002535534000042
Cotten aphid intrinsic rate of increase zoom table under table 1 different temperatures
Temperature r m Temperature r m Temperature r m Temperature r m
10 0.037530 16.6 0.170884 23.2 0.352677 29.8 0.358662
10.1 0.038082 16.7 0.173844 23.3 0.354646 29.9 0.356242
10.2 0.038696 16.8 0.176813 23.4 0.356573 30 0.353730
10.3 0.039371 16.9 0.179792 23.5 0.358459 30.1 0.351124
10.4 0.040106 17 0.182780 23.6 0.360302 30.2 0.348424
10.5 0.040901 17.1 0.185776 23.7 0.362101 30.3 0.345629
10.6 0.041755 17.2 0.188779 23.8 0.363856 30.4 0.342738
10.7 0.042666 17.3 0.191788 23.9 0.365566 30.5 0.339751
10.8 0.043635 17.4 0.194804 24 0.367230 30.6 0.336667
10.9 0.044660 17.5 0.197824 24.1 0.368848 30.7 0.333484
11 0.045740 17.6 0.200848 24.2 0.370418 30.8 0.330203
11.1 0.046875 17.7 0.203875 24.3 0.371940 30.9 0.326822
11.2 0.048065 17.8 0.206905 24.4 0.373413 31 0.323340
11.3 0.049307 17.9 0.209937 24.5 0.374836 31.1 0.319757
11.4 0.050602 18 0.212970 24.6 0.376209 31.2 0.316073
11.5 0.051949 18.1 0.216003 24.7 0.377531 31.3 0.312285
11.6 0.053346 18.2 0.219035 24.8 0.378800 31.4 0.308394
11.7 0.054794 18.3 0.222066 24.9 0.380017 31.5 0.304399
11.8 0.056291 18.4 0.225095 25 0.381180 31.6 0.300298
11.9 0.057837 18.5 0.228121 25.1 0.382289 31.7 0.296092
12 0.059430 18.6 0.231144 25.2 0.383342 31.8 0.291779
12.1 0.061070 18.7 0.234161 25.3 0.384340 31.9 0.287359
12.2 0.062757 18.8 0.237174 25.4 0.385280 32 0.282830
12.3 0.064489 18.9 0.240180 25.5 0.386164 32.1 0.278192
12.4 0.066266 19 0.243180 25.6 0.386989 32.2 0.273445
12.5 0.068086 19.1 0.246172 25.7 0.387755 32.3 0.268587
12.6 0.069950 19.2 0.249156 25.8 0.388461 32.4 0.263618
12.7 0.071856 19.3 0.252130 25.9 0.389106 32.5 0.258536
12.8 0.073803 19.4 0.255095 26 0.389690 32.6 0.253342
12.9 0.075792 19.5 0.258049 26.1 0.390212 32.7 0.248034
13 0.077820 19.6 0.260991 26.2 0.390671 32.8 0.242611
13.1 0.079887 19.7 0.263921 26.3 0.391066 32.9 0.237074
13.2 0.081993 19.8 0.266838 26.4 0.391396 33 0.231420
13.3 0.084137 19.9 0.269741 26.5 0.391661 33.1 0.225649
13.4 0.086317 20 0.272630 26.6 0.391860 33.2 0.219761
13.5 0.088534 20.1 0.275503 26.7 0.391993 33.3 0.213755
13.6 0.090786 20.2 0.278360 26.8 0.392057 33.4 0.207629
13.7 0.093072 20.3 0.281200 26.9 0.392053 33.5 0.201384
13.8 0.095392 20.4 0.284022 27 0.391980 33.6 0.195018
13.9 0.097745 20.5 0.286826 27.1 0.391837 33.7 0.188530
14 0.100130 20.6 0.289611 27.2 0.391623 33.8 0.181920
14.1 0.102547 20.7 0.292375 27.3 0.391337 33.9 0.175187
14.2 0.104994 20.8 0.295119 27.4 0.390980 34 0.168330
14.3 0.107471 20.9 0.297841 27.5 0.390549 34.1 0.161349
14.4 0.109977 21 0.300540 27.6 0.390044 34.2 0.154242
14.5 0.112511 21.1 0.303216 27.7 0.389464 34.3 0.147009
14.6 0.115073 21.2 0.305869 27.8 0.388809 34.4 0.139649
14.7 0.117662 21.3 0.308496 27.9 0.388078 34.5 0.132161
14.8 0.120276 21.4 0.311098 28 0.387270 34.6 0.124545
14.9 0.122916 21.5 0.313674 28.1 0.386384 34.7 0.116800
15 0.125580 21.6 0.316222 28.2 0.385419 34.8 0.108924
15.1 0.128268 21.7 0.318743 28.3 0.384375 34.9 0.100918
15.2 0.130978 21.8 0.321235 28.4 0.383251 35 0.092780
15.3 0.133711 21.9 0.323698 28.5 0.382046 35.1 0.084510
15.4 0.136464 22 0.326130 28.6 0.380760 35.2 0.076106
15.5 0.139239 22.1 0.328531 28.7 0.379390 35.3 0.067569
15.6 0.142033 22.2 0.330901 28.8 0.377938 35.4 0.058896
15.7 0.144846 22.3 0.333238 28.9 0.376401 35.5 0.050089
15.8 0.147677 22.4 0.335542 29 0.374780 35.6 0.041145
15.9 0.150525 22.5 0.337811 29.1 0.373073 35.7 0.032064
16 0.153390 22.6 0.340046 29.2 0.371280 35.8 0.022845
16.1 0.156271 22.7 0.342245 29.3 0.369399 35.9 0.013487
16.2 0.159167 22.8 0.344407 29.4 0.367431 36 0.003990
16.3 0.162077 22.9 0.346533 29.5 0.365374 36.1 -0.005647
16.4 0.165000 23 0.348620 29.6 0.363227 36.2 -0.015425
16.5 0.167936 23.1 0.350668 29.7 0.360990 36.3 -0.025345
Annotate: zoom table is made according to the intrinsic rate of increase computing formula;
29 the cotten aphid population quantities in table 2 Kuerle in 2007
Date Temperature on average Observed reading
May 25 0
May 30 23.3 0.04
June 5 26.6 3.9
June 10 27.5 2.1
June 15 25.6 3.43
June 20 21.5 37.5
June 25 25.8 71.5
June 30 26.7 152.2
July 5 25.2 289.48
To predicting May 30:
Table look-up 1 23.3 when spending, the cotten aphid intrinsic rate of increase is 0.354646, brings correction model into and calculates Population forecast value on May 30;
N T+1＝2.7032+0.2344×0×E 0.354646×5＝2.7；
To predicting June 5:
Table look-up 1 26.6 when spending, the cotten aphid intrinsic rate of increase is 0.391860, brings correction model into and calculates Population forecast value on June 15;
N T+1＝2.7032+0.2344×0.04×E 0.391860×5＝2.8；
To predicting July 5:
Table look-up 1 25.2 when spending, the cotten aphid intrinsic rate of increase is 0.383342, brings correction model into and calculates Population forecast value on July 5;
N T+1＝2.7032+0.2344×152.2×E 0.383342×5＝245.2；
Table 3 actual observed value and the comparison that predicts the outcome
Date Observed reading Predicted value Error
May 30 0.04 2.7 -2.66
June 5 3.9 2.8 1.1
June 10 2.1 9.1 -7
June 15 3.4 6.1 -2.7
June 20 37.5 6.5 31
June 25 71.5 64 7.5
June 30 152.2 121.7 30.5
July 5 289.48 245.2 44.3
As can be seen from Table 3: the cotten aphid population quantity short-term forecasting value and the field actual observed value that adopt this method to obtain are very approaching, and degree of fitting is high, illustrates that the precision of prediction of this method is very high.

Claims (1)

1. the method for a short-term forecasting cotten aphid population quantity is characterized in that following these steps to carrying out:
A, comprehensive collection locality be cotten aphid population data and each meteorological site Monitoring Data for many years, obtain the cotten aphid population quantity dynamically and every day medial temperature numerical value;
B, utilize the cotten aphid population given age life table under the local different temperatures, obtain cotten aphid population intrinsic rate of increase under the different temperatures, set up the nonlinear function of cotten aphid population intrinsic rate of increase and temperature;
C, medial temperature predicted value every day that next time period is continuous 5 days are taken the mean, and with this average substitution functional equation, draw the cotten aphid intrinsic rate of increase under this temperature;
D, utilize the theory of index number model of population growth, cotten aphid intrinsic rate of increase numerical value substitution model is drawn cotten aphid population quantity predicted value after 5-7 days;
E, utilize for many years field cotten aphid population quantity Monitoring Data, the revised theory model based on correction model and temperature forecast value, adopts recurrence method, finishes cotten aphid population short-term quantitative forecast.
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CN113313287A (en) * 2021-04-23 2021-08-27 江苏省农业科学院 Construction method of short-term prediction model for population quantity of Laodelphax striatellus
CN116432902A (en) * 2023-03-31 2023-07-14 中国水利水电科学研究院 Species long-term viability assessment method considering water environment factor variation

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CN104504473A (en) * 2014-12-24 2015-04-08 石河子大学 Staged five-day-interval cotton aphid emergence grade forecasting method
CN104915535A (en) * 2015-02-04 2015-09-16 湖南农业大学 Biomass population dynamics predictive parsing worldwide general key factor presupposing array platform
CN104915535B (en) * 2015-02-04 2019-04-30 湖南农业大学 Biotic population dynamic prediction analyzes global general-use key factor preset group platform
CN104794537A (en) * 2015-04-17 2015-07-22 中国农业科学院柑桔研究所 Method for building prediction models for unaspis yanonensis kuwana emergence periods of mandarins
CN111768044A (en) * 2020-07-01 2020-10-13 石河子大学 Method and system for monitoring cotton aphid number in seedling stage of cotton
CN111768044B (en) * 2020-07-01 2022-07-08 石河子大学 Method and system for monitoring cotton aphid number in seedling stage of cotton
CN113313287A (en) * 2021-04-23 2021-08-27 江苏省农业科学院 Construction method of short-term prediction model for population quantity of Laodelphax striatellus
CN113313287B (en) * 2021-04-23 2023-12-08 江苏省农业科学院 Construction method of short-term prediction model of population quantity of Laodelphax striatellus
CN116432902A (en) * 2023-03-31 2023-07-14 中国水利水电科学研究院 Species long-term viability assessment method considering water environment factor variation
CN116432902B (en) * 2023-03-31 2023-09-12 中国水利水电科学研究院 Species long-term viability assessment method considering water environment factor variation

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