CN102831324A - Method for computing river environmental capacity based on interval number theory - Google Patents
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Abstract
本发明涉及污染减排与污染物排放总量控制等环境管理领域，其针对现有河流环境容量计算方法在考虑不确定性方面的不足，开发了一种基于区间数理论的计算河流环境容量方法。该方法包括如下三个步骤：首先，收集研究河流水文参数与水质模型参数，结合现场试验，确定河流水文参数与水质模型参数的变化范围；其次，利用区间数理论建立基于区间数理论的河流环境容量计算模型；最后，在河流控制单元划分基础上，根据区间数的运算规则，计算得到河流环境容量区间。该方法相比传统水环境容量计算方法，具有充分考虑水环境系统的不确定性，具有科学、简单实用与适用范围广等特点。
The invention relates to the field of environmental management such as pollution reduction and total pollutant discharge control, and aims at the lack of uncertainty in the existing river environmental capacity calculation methods, and develops a river environmental capacity calculation method based on the interval number theory . The method includes the following three steps: First, collect and study the river hydrological parameters and water quality model parameters, and combine field tests to determine the variation range of the river hydrological parameters and water quality model parameters; secondly, use interval number theory to establish a river environment based on interval number theory Capacity calculation model; finally, on the basis of the division of river control units, according to the operation rules of the interval number, the river environmental capacity interval is calculated. Compared with the traditional water environment capacity calculation method, this method fully considers the uncertainty of the water environment system, and is scientific, simple and practical, and has a wide range of applications.
Description
技术领域 technical field
本发明涉及污染减排与污染物排放总量控制等环境管理领域，尤其涉及一种基于区间数计算河流环境容量的方法。该方法可广泛应用于各种河流水环境容量的计算，提高河流流域水环境管理的科学性与管理效率。The invention relates to the fields of environmental management such as pollution reduction and total pollutant discharge control, and in particular to a method for calculating river environmental capacity based on interval numbers. This method can be widely used in the calculation of the water environment capacity of various rivers, and can improve the scientificity and management efficiency of water environment management in river basins.
背景技术 Background technique
目前，水环境破坏倍受世人关注，水体污染、水资源短缺已经成为制约经济社会可持续发展和人民生活水平提高的重要因素。我国从20世纪70年代初期开始着手进行水污染防治，经过30多年的努力，虽然水污染在一定程度上有所减轻，但仍没有得到有效控制。根据国家环保部《2011年中国环境状况公报》资料表明：2011年，我国十大水系的469个水质监测断面中，I-III类的断面占61.0％；IV-V类和劣V类水质断面比例则分别为25.3％和13.7％；主要污染指标为化学需氧量、五日生化需氧量和总磷，可见我国水环境污染的防治工作仍然任重道远。实施污染物排放总量控制是解决区域性水环境污染问题的重要手段。目前，我国污染物排放总量控制正逐步从目标总量控制向容量总量控制过度。而水环境容量计算是容量总量控制的基础和前提，科学可靠的水环境容量计算成果是容量总量控制顺利实施的重要保障，因此开展水环境容量计算的研究具有深远意义。At present, the destruction of the water environment has attracted the attention of the world. Water pollution and water resource shortage have become important factors restricting the sustainable development of the economy and society and the improvement of people's living standards. my country began to carry out water pollution prevention and control in the early 1970s. After more than 30 years of efforts, although water pollution has been reduced to a certain extent, it has not been effectively controlled. According to the "2011 China Environmental Status Bulletin" of the Ministry of Environmental Protection, it shows that in 2011, among the 469 water quality monitoring sections of my country's top ten water systems, 61.0% of the sections were classified as I-III; The ratios are 25.3% and 13.7% respectively; the main pollution indicators are chemical oxygen demand, five-day biochemical oxygen demand and total phosphorus. It can be seen that the prevention and control of water environment pollution in my country still has a long way to go. The implementation of total pollutant discharge control is an important means to solve the problem of regional water environment pollution. At present, my country's total pollutant discharge control is gradually shifting from target total control to capacity total control. The calculation of water environment capacity is the basis and premise of total capacity control, and scientific and reliable water environment capacity calculation results are an important guarantee for the smooth implementation of total capacity control. Therefore, it is of far-reaching significance to carry out research on water environment capacity calculation.
我国学者自20世纪70年代后期开始研究水环境容量，从确定性水文条件下水环境容量的计算发展到考虑不确定性水文条件下水环境容量的计算。如张家贤等(1991)首先设定目标水质和一定保证率下的最枯月流量，再用一维水环境容量模型计算湖北D河的水环境容量值；曾维华等(1992)基于河水流量、排污量、排污浓度等随机波动性特点，运用随机理论对河流水环境容量问题进行研究，提出了风险水环境容量概念与计算、分配模式；李如忠等(2003)运用未确知数学中有关盲数理论对不确定信息下河流纳污能力计算问题进行了探讨，并以实际水体为例，求得相应可信度水平下纳污能力的未确定期望值；陈丁江等(2010)应用蒙特卡罗模拟方法，分析模型各输入参数的灵敏度以及水环境容量值的概率分布，建立了非点源污染河流水环境容量的分期不确定性分析方法。国外，特别是欧美发达国家，对环境容量该术语使用较少，使用同化容量或最大允许纳污量较多。他们在水环境容量模型方面做了不少研究，逐渐从确定性模型发展到采用随机理论和系统优化相结合的模型研究。如Liebman(1966)等将流量等参数作为确定性变量处理，然后由线性规划方法计算在治理投资最低情况下的水体允许排污水平；Revelle(1968)等用确定性方法把目标函数线性化后用优化模型求污染物允许排放量；Lohani(1979)等把流量作为已知概率分布的随机变量，用概率约束模型对超标风险厂的污染负荷分配进行了研究；Donald(1985)等考虑水质现象等的随机波动性，用一阶不确定分析方法将随机变量转化为等价的确定性变量，通过所构建的优化模型，从而可计算出较为准确的排污口允许排放量；美国的每日最大负荷量(TMDL)计划中也考虑了污染物排放量、河流流量等的时间变化，并且包含了安全临界值以体现TMDL计算过程中的不确定性。Chinese scholars began to study water environmental capacity in the late 1970s, from the calculation of water environmental capacity under deterministic hydrological conditions to the calculation of water environmental capacity under uncertain hydrological conditions. For example, Zhang Jiaxian et al. (1991) first set the target water quality and the driest monthly flow rate under a certain guarantee rate, and then used a one-dimensional water environment capacity model to calculate the water environment capacity value of the D River in Hubei; Zeng Weihua et al. (1992) based on river water flow, sewage discharge According to the characteristics of random fluctuations such as quantity and sewage concentration, the stochastic theory is used to study the problem of river water environment capacity, and the concept, calculation and distribution model of risk water environment capacity are proposed; Li Ruzhong et al. Discussed the calculation of the pollution-holding capacity of rivers under uncertain information, and took the actual water body as an example to obtain the undetermined expected value of the pollution-holding capacity under the corresponding level of confidence; Chen Dingjiang et al. (2010) applied the Monte Carlo simulation method, By analyzing the sensitivity of each input parameter of the model and the probability distribution of the water environment capacity value, a staged uncertainty analysis method for the water environment capacity of the non-point source polluted river is established. In foreign countries, especially developed countries in Europe and the United States, the term environmental capacity is rarely used, and assimilation capacity or maximum allowable pollution holding capacity is used more. They have done a lot of research on the water environment capacity model, and gradually developed from a deterministic model to a model research combining stochastic theory and system optimization. For example, Liebman (1966) treated the flow and other parameters as deterministic variables, and then calculated the allowable sewage level of the water body under the condition of the lowest treatment investment by the linear programming method; Revelle (1968) used the deterministic method to linearize the objective function and then used Optimize the model to calculate the allowable discharge of pollutants; Lohani (1979) took the flow rate as a random variable with a known probability distribution, and used a probability constraint model to study the distribution of pollution loads in factories with excessive risk; Donald (1985) and others considered water quality phenomena, etc. The stochastic fluctuations of random variables are transformed into equivalent deterministic variables by using the first-order uncertainty analysis method. Through the optimized model constructed, a more accurate allowable discharge of sewage outlets can be calculated; the daily maximum load of the United States Time changes in pollutant discharge, river flow, etc. are also considered in the TMDL plan, and safety thresholds are included to reflect the uncertainty in the TMDL calculation process.
目前尚未有利用区间数理论计算水环境容量的专利，随着人们生态环境保护意识的加强，社会对水环境质量的重视，控制排入水体的污染物和改善水体质量已成为当前社会稳定发展的迫切需要，促使环境容量计算方法不断改进。因此，在国内外已有的计算河流环境容量方法的基础上，将区间数理论应用到河流环境容量的计算，并使之高效、经济、广泛的应用于水污染物总量控制具有非常现实的意义。At present, there is no patent for calculating the capacity of the water environment using the interval number theory. With the strengthening of people's awareness of ecological environment protection, the society attaches great importance to the quality of the water environment. Controlling the pollutants discharged into the water body and improving the quality of the water body have become the stable development of the current society. There is an urgent need to promote the continuous improvement of environmental capacity calculation methods. Therefore, on the basis of existing methods for calculating the environmental capacity of rivers at home and abroad, it is very realistic to apply interval number theory to the calculation of environmental capacity of rivers, and to make it efficient, economical, and widely used in the total control of water pollutants. significance.
发明内容 Contents of the invention
本发明针对水环境容量的随机、模糊与灰色等不确定性，提供了一种基于区间数理论河流环境容量的计算方法。该方法包括如下几个步骤：首先，收集研究河流水文参数和水质模型参数，结合现场试验确定河流水文参数与水质模型参数的变化范围，其变化范围用区间表示，流量区间最大值和最小值分别用典型丰水年流量和典型枯水年流量表示；流速区间最大值和最小值可以用典型丰水年和典型枯水年的流量实测值表示，或者采用经验公式估算；综合降解系数区间的确定方法同流速区间的确定方法。然后，利用区间数理论建立基于区间数理论的河流水环境容量计算模型，即根据河流实际情况选择水环境容量计算模型，其中河流流量、流速和综合降解系数由实数变为区间。最后，在河流控制单元划分基础上，根据区间数的运算规则，计算获得环境容量区间。该方法具有充分考虑水环境系统具有不确定性的特点，具有科学、简单实用与适用范围广等特点。The invention provides a method for calculating the river environment capacity based on the interval number theory aiming at the random, fuzzy, gray and other uncertainties of the water environment capacity. The method includes the following steps: First, collect and study the river hydrological parameters and water quality model parameters, and determine the variation range of the river hydrological parameters and water quality model parameters in combination with field tests. Expressed by flow in typical wet years and typical dry years; the maximum and minimum values of flow rate intervals can be expressed by the measured values of flow in typical wet years and typical dry years, or estimated by empirical formulas; the determination of the comprehensive degradation coefficient interval The method is the same as the method for determining the velocity range. Then, the calculation model of river water environment capacity based on interval number theory is established by using the interval number theory, that is, the water environment capacity calculation model is selected according to the actual situation of the river, in which the river flow, flow velocity and comprehensive degradation coefficient are changed from real numbers to intervals. Finally, based on the division of river control units, the environmental capacity interval is calculated according to the operation rules of the interval number. This method has the characteristics of fully considering the uncertainty of the water environment system, and is scientific, simple and practical, and has a wide range of applications.
本发明的特征在于将水环境系统的不确定性与区间数理论相结合，将各水文参数的不确定性用一区间值表示，然后运用区间数运算规则计算河流的环境容量区间值，满足了弹性管理、适应面广的要求。The present invention is characterized in that the uncertainty of the water environment system is combined with the interval number theory, the uncertainty of each hydrological parameter is represented by an interval value, and then the interval value of the environmental capacity of the river is calculated by using the interval number operation rule, which satisfies the Flexible management, adapt to a wide range of requirements.
本发明的目的在于提供一种综合全面、科学、适用范围广、操作性强的河流环境容量计算方法，以弥补现有方法在污染物总量控制方面弹性管理的不足。与现有的环境容量计算方法相比，本发明专利具有以下优点：The purpose of the present invention is to provide a comprehensive, scientific, wide-applicable, and highly operable method for calculating river environment capacity, so as to make up for the deficiencies of the existing methods in the flexible management of total pollutant control. Compared with the existing environmental capacity calculation method, the patent of the present invention has the following advantages:
(1)充分考虑了水环境系统的不确定性：用区间数表示各水文参数的变化范围，得到的环境容量也用区间数表示，该方法充分考虑了水环境系统的不确定性。(1) The uncertainty of the water environment system is fully considered: the variation range of each hydrological parameter is expressed by the interval number, and the obtained environmental capacity is also expressed by the interval number. This method fully considers the uncertainty of the water environment system.
(2)满足了弹性管理的需求：在环境容量区间范围之内，政府和企业等能够有自我调整、自我选择、自我管理的余地，能够提高管理的灵活性。(2) Meet the needs of flexible management: within the range of environmental capacity, the government and enterprises can have room for self-adjustment, self-selection, and self-management, which can improve the flexibility of management.
(3)使用范围广：本发明使用于任何河流的水环境容量计算。(3) Wide application range: the present invention is applicable to the calculation of the water environment capacity of any river.
附图表说明Description of drawings
图1为本发明的技术路线图。Fig. 1 is a technical roadmap of the present invention.
具体实施方式 Detailed ways
以下结合附图详细说明本发明的工作原理和实施方式：Working principle and implementation mode of the present invention are described in detail below in conjunction with accompanying drawing:
首先，收集研究河流水文参数和水质模型参数，结合现场试验确定河流水文参数与水质模型参数的变化范围，用区间表示其变化范围，流量区间用典型丰水年和典型枯水年流量表示[Q枯水年，Q丰水年]；流速可以根据典型丰水年和典型枯水年实测流速表示，也可以据经验公式进行估算[u枯水年，u丰水年]；综合降解系数可根据实测法、怀特公式法或分析借用法表示[K1，K2]。然后，利用区间数理论建立基于区间数理论的河流水环境容量计算模型，即根据河流实际情况选择水环境容量计算模型，其中河流流量、流速和综合降解系数由实数变为区间。最后，在河流控制单元划分基础上，根据区间数的运算规则，计算获得环境容量区间[W1，W2]。Firstly, collect and study the river hydrological parameters and water quality model parameters, combine field tests to determine the variation range of river hydrological parameters and water quality model parameters, and use intervals to represent the variation range, and the flow interval is represented by the flow rate of typical wet years and typical dry years [Q dry year , Q wet year ]; the flow rate can be expressed according to the measured flow rate in typical wet year and typical dry year, and can also be estimated according to the empirical formula [u dry year , u wet year ]; the comprehensive degradation coefficient can be calculated according to Actual measurement method, White formula method or analysis borrowing method to express [K 1 , K 2 ]. Then, the calculation model of river water environment capacity based on interval number theory is established by using the interval number theory, that is, the water environment capacity calculation model is selected according to the actual situation of the river, in which the river flow, flow velocity and comprehensive degradation coefficient are changed from real numbers to intervals. Finally, based on the division of river control units, the environmental capacity interval [W 1 , W 2 ] is calculated according to the operation rules of the interval number.
实施例1Example 1
渭河是黄河的最大一级支流，也是陕西关中地区唯一的废污水承纳和排水通道，据统计陕西省80％以上的工业废水和生活污水通过渭河排放。因此，开展渭河流域关中段水环境容量的研究，既可为流域实现总量控制提供依据，也可为流域规划提供指导借鉴，具有重要的现实意义。首先收集渭河关中段的基础资料；结合渭河关中段水系特点、渭河水功能区划以及实际需求，对研究河段进行概化并划分容量计算单元，用区间数表示各单元流量、流速和综合降解系数的变化范围；根据渭河关中段实际情况，选择W＝Q*(Cs-Co)+K*Q*Cs*x/u作为水环境容量计算公式，则基于区间数理论的渭河关中段水环境容量计算公式为：W＝[Q枯水年，Q丰水年]*(Cs-Co)+[K1，K2]*[Q枯水年，Q丰水年]*Cs*x/[u枯水年，u丰水年]；根据区间数运算规则，将各参数代入水环境容量计算公式，得到各个单元环境容量区间[W1，W2]，计算结果如表1所示。The Weihe River is the largest first-class tributary of the Yellow River, and it is also the only sewage receiving and drainage channel in the Guanzhong area of Shaanxi Province. According to statistics, more than 80% of industrial wastewater and domestic sewage in Shaanxi Province are discharged through the Weihe River. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to carry out the research on the water environmental capacity of the Guanzhong section of the Weihe River Basin, which can not only provide the basis for the total control of the river basin, but also provide guidance for the basin planning. First, collect the basic data of the middle section of Weiheguan; combined with the characteristics of the water system in the middle section of Weiheguan, the water function zoning of Weihe River and the actual needs, generalize the research section and divide the capacity calculation units, and use the interval number to represent the flow rate, flow velocity and comprehensive degradation coefficient of each unit According to the actual situation in the middle section of Weiheguan, choose W=Q*(Cs-Co)+K*Q*Cs*x/u as the calculation formula of water environment capacity, then the water environment capacity of the middle section of Weiheguan based on interval number theory The calculation formula is: W＝[Q dry year , Q wet year ]*(Cs-Co)+[K 1 , K 2 ]*[Q dry year , Q wet year ]*Cs*x/[u dry year , u wet year ]; according to the calculation rules of the interval number, each parameter is substituted into the water environment capacity calculation formula to obtain the environmental capacity interval [W 1 , W 2 ] of each unit, and the calculation results are shown in Table 1.
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2012
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