CN102708427A - System and method for analyzing and determining influence of large-scale charging pile to community distribution system - Google Patents
System and method for analyzing and determining influence of large-scale charging pile to community distribution system Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a system and method for analyzing and determining the influence of a large-scale charging pile to a community distribution system. The system comprises a monitoring centre for analyzing and determining the influence of the large-scale charging pile to the community distribution system and a data acquiring terminal for acquiring the data of the charging pile, wherein the data acquiring terminal communicates with the charging pile by a network. According to the invention, the community distribution system capacity model, a normal distribution model of the community power load and power time, and charging real-time data are combined, so as to compare the calculated community distribution load curve with the distribution system capacity model, so that the operation condition of the community distribution system is monitored, a coordination scheduling policy for the community distribution system operation is determined and the permeability of the community electric vehicle is assessed. Moreover, the charging behaviours of the community electric vehicle are controlled in a coordinated manner, the influence of the community electric vehicle to the distribution system and the electric energy quality is reduced, the permeability of the community electric vehicle is improved, and the community distribution system is ensured to safely and stably operate.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to the used for electric vehicle film and ring the monitoring field, relate in particular to a kind of extensive charging pile sub-district distribution system impact analysis decision system and method.
Background technology
For solving environmental pollution, energy shortage problem; The development of electric automobile has become a kind of trend, and increasing electric automobile will enter into ordinary family, according to investigations statistics; Selection to charging modes; The consumer more is ready to charge at night, and is chosen in residence area and charges voluntarily, therefore then becomes imperative behave for residential quarter outfit electric automobile charging pile.Prefectures and cities also begin to promote the work that charging pile gets into the sub-district, comprise building up sub-district enlarging charging pile, reservation charging pile installation site, newly-built sub-district etc.
The residential quarters first stage of construction can carry out the design of distribution system according to the scale of sub-district dwelling house and adequate and systematic service facility, selects suitable transformer platform number, capacity and power supply mode.No matter whether sub-district distribution system design considers electric automobile charging pile charging load; According to the charging behavior randomness of electric automobile and the characteristics of randomness; After extensive electric automobile charging pile inserts the sub-district distribution system, bring uncertainty can for sub-district distribution system operation.Riding charging electric vehicle electric current is generally 10～20A, and the duration of charging can reach 6 hours even be longer, and it is a very big load that hundreds of electric automobile charges to the sub-district distribution system in evening peak simultaneously.If coordination optimization is not carried out in the charging behavior of electric automobile and reduce sub-district peak of power consumption workload demand, possibly cause that then sub-district distribution line and transformer load rate raise even overload, and increase sub-district distribution system net damage, the deterioration quality of power supply; Even will produce adverse influence to electric system the whole network, like the equilibrium of supply and demand, Control of Voltage, relay protection, the capacity that increases electric power, increase distribution system construction and operating cost.
Charging electric vehicle has caused extensive concern to the influence of electric system; At present mainly be that electric automobile is to the impact analysis of electric system the whole network operation and the research of dispatch control method; But consider that following electric automobile quantity maybe be very huge; Carry out the charging electric vehicle scheduling controlling at electric system the whole network and under the current techniques condition, have very big enforcement difficulty, therefore zonal electric automobile scheduling controlling can be a developing direction in the future.Residential quarters are as the important development zone of riding charging electric vehicle; It also is the base layer region of electric system; A large amount of charging piles insert the impact analysis of sub-district distribution system and will be not only the stable guarantee of sub-district Electrical Safety the coordination control of the charging behavior of sub-district electric automobile, also are the important support to power system stability, safety, economical operation.
Literature search through to prior art is found; People such as China Electric Power Research Institute's kingliness duty have proposed the orderly charge control method of a kind of electric automobile and system's (number of patent application: 201010521514.3); But this system only is applicable to the charging control of electrical network to electric automobile charging station; And the load that does not have the diversity and the charging station distribution system of consideration of regional electricity consumption; And this system adopts the centralized dispatching pattern, considers that charging station quantity and data continue under the situation of increase, and this mode can cause occurring the problem of dimension disaster.
People such as the Hu Zechun of Tsing-Hua University have proposed a kind of electric automobile charging station and have coordinated charge control method (number of patent application: 201110023668.4); This method proposes coordination control strategy to single charging station; But there is not to consider influence to electrical network electricity consumption peak load; And this method adopts the directly mode of control charging set charging break-make, does not consider the influence of this kind mode to charging permeability and battery life.
CAS Electrical Engineering Research Institute is permitted extra large equality people and has proposed the orderly charge control system of a kind of electric automobile (number of patent application: 201110148662.X), but this system is applicable to charging equipment, does not propose the method for work of higher level's coordinated control system.
The people such as Xin Jianbo of Jiangxi Electric Power research institute have proposed the orderly charging method of a kind of electric automobile based on multi-agent system (number of patent application: 201110277269.0); But this method only is applicable to the Monitoring and Controlling to intelligent power or power-supply unit; Do not consider numerous non intelligent confession distribution and consumer; Do not consider the establishment of unintelligent device model yet, do not possess application conditions at present.
Summary of the invention
The object of the invention is exactly in order to address the above problem; Provide a kind of extensive charging pile to sub-district distribution system impact analysis decision system and method; It can consider the load of the diversity and the charging station distribution system of regional electricity consumption; Permeability that can the evaluates cell electric automobile in the serviceable life of enhance battery, ensures the stable operation of sub-district power distribution system secure.
To achieve these goals, the present invention adopts following technical scheme:
A kind of extensive charging pile comprises Surveillance center, data collection station, alternating-current charging pile to sub-district distribution system impact analysis decision system,
Said Surveillance center comprises preposition service unit, data storage device, analysis decision service unit, is used for extensive charging pile sub-district distribution system impact analysis is made a strategic decision;
Pass through the network mode communication between said data collection station and the alternating-current charging pile;
Said preposition service unit comprises the server of the data acquisition that is used to charge at least, obtains the charging pile charging data that data collection station is gathered;
Said data storage device comprises at least one relational database server and at least one real-time data base server; Wherein, relational database is used to store sub-district distribution system capacity model, sub-district power load and the normal distribution model of electricity consumption time, sub-district charging pile monitoring model, sub-district distribution load historical data and required static data and the model of other analysis decisions; Real-time data base is used to store sub-district charging pile charging real time data;
Said data collection station be responsible for the sub-district in the alternating-current charging pile communication, obtain real time data when charging, comprise charging pile charged state, charging voltage, charging current, duration of charging and the available measurement data of other charging piles; Possess in the sub-district distribution system under the condition of protection measure and control device, data collection station also can obtain the distribution system operational factor with the communication of protection measure and control device;
Said analysis decision service unit comprises the server of be used to charge data monitoring, analysis, a decision-making at least, is used to create the required model of analysis decision, the monitoring of charging data in real time, the real-time analysis of sub-district electricity consumption situation, charging coordinated scheduling and controls.
Said preposition service unit and data collection station adopt IEC870-5-101, IEC60870-5-104, circulating telemechanical stipulations, CAN agreement or other universal communication stipulations to carry out data interaction through network, RS485 bus or CAN bus mode.
A kind of decision-making technique that adopts extensive charging pile to sub-district distribution system impact analysis decision system may further comprise the steps:
Alternating-current charging pile charging data in step 2, the sub-district of collection storage in real time;
Step 5, Surveillance center issue scheduling controlling order, control charging pile duration of charging, charging current to charging pile; Wait for that the next analysis decision cycle carries out step 3.
Sub-district low-voltage distribution system capacity model, sub-district power load and the normal distribution model of electricity consumption time of said step 1, sub-district alternating-current charging pile monitoring model all are saved to the relational database of data storage device;
Wherein, sub-district low-voltage distribution system capacity model comprises sub-district supply line quantity; Number transformer and transformer parameter; Sub-district distribution system mode of connection topology is showed; Said transformer parameter comprises: rated power, rated voltage, rated current, rated capacity and other parameters that can obtain;
The normal distribution model of sub-district power load and electricity consumption time adopts the autoregressive moving average method, generates according to sub-district electricity consumption historical data;
Sub-district alternating-current charging pile monitoring model comprises that the sub-district built up charging pile quantity, the monitoring of charging pile charging real time data: charged state, charging current, charging voltage, charging warning information and the available data of other charging piles.
Alternating-current charging pile charging data are meant that data collection station gathers in the sub-district alternating-current charging pile data of charging in real time in the real-time collection storage sub-district of said step 2; Deliver to the preposition harvester of Surveillance center on the communication protocol according to the rules; Preposition harvester is sent to data storage device after with the civilian dissection process of delivering newspaper on the data collection station that receives, and the data-storing device is saved in real-time data base with the charging pile data of charging.
The concrete steps of said step 2 are described below:
2-1), electric vehicle alternating-current charging pile and data collection station communication, data such as charging pile duty, charging voltage, electric current are sent to data collection station;
2-2), data collection station and preposition service unit communication, on after all charging pile data centralizations in the sub-district that obtains, deliver to preposition service unit;
2-3), preposition service unit is judged and resolve communication packet, abandons error message, will resolve normal data and deliver to data storage device;
2-4), data storage device is according to data attribute, like deviation, memory gap, judges whether and need deposit data in real-time data base that the data that need not deposit in directly abandon.
The concrete steps of said step 3 are described below:
3-1), the analysis decision service unit judges whether to arrive the timing cycle of analysis decision, if then from data storage device, call model data and charging real time data;
3-2), calculating real-time charging load, with sub-district power load and the stack of the normal distribution model of electricity consumption time, generation sub-district distribution load;
3-3), result of calculation stores the relational database of database service device into;
The distribution load curve of said step 4 is in nearest one day, to calculate the gained distribution load to describe to form; The distribution load curve comprises the distribution load curve in the time, distribution load curve, power load and the normal distribution curve of electricity consumption time that emulation is not coordinated to charge;
Analyze conclusion and comprise whether current area causes adverse effect with electricity condition to the power distribution network load, like influence to the equilibrium of supply and demand, Control of Voltage, the quality of power supply, electric automobile permeability in sub-district under the current state;
The scheduling controlling decision-making comprises whether need carrying out scheduling controlling; Form scheduling strategy when needing scheduling: coordinate the charging behavior of sub-district electric automobile; Confirm in a period of time; Like following 2h, the optimum of electric automobile charging strategy in the sub-district is coordinated charging electric vehicle opportunity, size of current and time length; And emulation forms not sub-district distribution load curve and sub-district electric automobile permeability under the operation dispatching strategy;
The scheduling controlling decision storage is to the relational database of database service device.
The concrete steps of said step 5 are described below:
5-1), Surveillance center will coordinate control command and be issued to preposition service unit;
5-2), preposition service unit will be coordinated to be issued to data collection station after control command reorganizes;
5-3), data collection station will be coordinated control command and be issued to the charging pile that may command maybe need control and coordinate control.Said autoregressive moving average method does, this method is regarded the time series of sub-district power load as a random series, and this group dependence that stochastic variable had is embodying sub-district power load continuity in time; Self change rule influence of influenced factor is simultaneously arranged, and influence factor comprises sub-district electricity consumption type, electricity consumption electricity price, weather, temperature, festivals or holidays, is designated as x
1, x
2..., x
k, by regretional analysis:
P＝β
0+β
1x
1+β
2x
2+...+β
kx
k+e
Wherein P is the observed reading (actual value) of power load, and e is an error; As predicted value P
tReceive the influence that self changes, its rule can be embodied by following formula,
P
t＝β
0+β
1x
t-1+β
2x
t-2+...+β
px
t-p+e
In the above-mentioned formula, β
0, β
1β
kBe model parameter, k, t, p are positive integer.
Error term has dependence at different times, is expressed from the next,
e
t＝α
0+α
1e
t-1+α
2e
t-2+...+α
qe
t-q+μ
t
Wherein, α
0, α
1α
qBe model parameter, μ
tBe average, q, t are positive integer.
Thus, obtain the arma modeling expression formula:
P
t＝β
0+β
1x
t-1+β
2x
t-2+...+β
px
t-p+α
0+α
1e
t-1+α
2e
t-2+...+α
qe
t-q+μ
t。
The present invention is according to sub-district distribution system design establishment sub-district distribution system capacity model; Create sub-district power load and the normal distribution model of electricity consumption time according to sub-district dwelling house and adequate and systematic service facility situation; Create the monitoring model of sub-district charging pile according to sub-district charging pile construction situation; Obtain charging voltage, electric current, duration of charging and other the charging data of electric automobile through real-time communication at charging quantity, each charging pile.According to above-mentioned condition calculation plot distribution load; Generate nearest one day distribution load curve, utilize this curve and sub-district distribution system capacity model comparative analysis when the peak, accumulator of electric car to be charged to the permeability of the influence of sub-district distribution system, current area electric automobile; The strategy of the coordinated scheduling that whether need charge control and coordinated scheduling control, under this strategy the permeability of sub-district electric automobile.
Beneficial effect of the present invention:
(1), native system adopts sub-district distribution system capacity model, sub-district power load and the mode that the electricity consumption time normal distribution model and the real time data of charging combine, and more meets practical application.
(2), the comparison of system-computed gained sub-district distribution load curve and distribution system capacity model, but monitored cells distribution system operation conditions, decision-making sub-district distribution system operation coordinated scheduling strategy, evaluates cell electric automobile permeability.
(3), the charging behavior of system coordination control sub-district electric automobile, reduced the sub-district charging electric vehicle to the influence of distribution system, the quality of power supply, improve sub-district electric automobile permeability, ensure the stable operation of sub-district power distribution system secure.
(4), system also provides the guarantee of basic unit for reducing charging electric vehicle to the influence of electric system the whole network to the decision-making of sub-district charging electric vehicle behavior, for electric system the whole network is stable, safety, economical operation provide important support.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 is a structural representation of the present invention;
Fig. 2 is that extensive charging pile is to sub-district distribution system impact analysis decision-making technique block diagram;
Fig. 3 is a charging data acquisition flow synoptic diagram of the present invention;
Fig. 4 is an analysis decision schematic flow sheet of the present invention;
Fig. 5 is certain sub-district distribution load curve map.
Wherein, 1. analysis decision Surveillance center, 2. data storage device, 3. analysis decision service unit, 4. preposition service unit, 5. relational database server, 6. real-time data base server, 7. data collection station, 8. alternating-current charging pile.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing and embodiment the present invention is described further.
As shown in Figure 1, the present invention includes analysis decision Surveillance center 1, data collection station 7, alternating-current charging pile 8; Pass through the network mode communication between said data collection station 7 and the alternating-current charging pile 8.
Said analysis decision Surveillance center 1 comprises preposition service unit 4, data storage device 2, analysis decision service unit 3;
Said preposition service unit 4 comprises the server of the data acquisition that is used to charge at least, carries out communication with data collection station 7 through network, RS485 bus or CAN bus mode, obtains the alternating-current charging pile 8 charging data that data collection station 7 is gathered.Preposition service unit 4 can carry out data interaction through IEC870-5-101, IEC60870-5-104, circulating telemechanical stipulations, CAN agreement or other universal communication stipulations with data collection station 7.
Said data storage device 2 comprises at least one relational database server 5 and a real-time data base server 6 that is used for the storage of real time data.Relational database is used to store sub-district distribution system capacity model, sub-district power load and the normal distribution model of electricity consumption time, sub-district charging pile monitoring model and required static data and the model of other analysis decisions; Real-time data base is used to store sub-district charging pile charging real time data.
Said analysis decision service unit 3 comprises the server of be used to charge data monitoring, analysis, a decision-making at least.The function of analysis decision service unit 3 comprises: create the required model of analysis decision, the monitoring of charging data in real time, the real-time analysis of sub-district electricity consumption situation, charging scheduling controlling.
Said network is cable network or wireless network, and said wireless network comprises GPRS, CDMA, 3G or other remote-wireless communication modes.
Said data collection station 7 is also claimed data concentrator; Be responsible for the sub-district in alternating-current charging pile 8 communications; Real time data when obtaining charging comprises charging pile charged state, charging voltage, charging current, duration of charging and other alternating-current charging piles 8 available measurement data.Possess in the sub-district distribution system under the condition of protection measure and control device, data collection station 7 also can obtain the distribution system operational factor with the communication of protection measure and control device.
Said analysis decision Surveillance center 1 also can be the server of integrated be used to charge data acquisition, data storage and an analysis decision.
As shown in Figure 2, extensive charging pile specifically describes as follows sub-district distribution system impact analysis decision-making technique step:
Alternating-current charging pile charging data in step 2, the sub-district of collection storage in real time.
Step 5, Surveillance center issue scheduling controlling order, control charging pile duration of charging, charging current to charging pile.Wait for that the next analysis decision cycle carries out step 3.
As shown in Figure 3, charging data acquisition flow of the present invention, concrete steps are described below:
As shown in Figure 4, analysis decision flow process of the present invention, concrete steps are described below:
As shown in Figure 5, the distribution load curve of certain sub-district comprises the distribution load curve in the time, distribution load curve, power load and the normal distribution curve of electricity consumption time that emulation is not coordinated to charge.
Though the above-mentioned accompanying drawing specific embodiments of the invention that combines is described; But be not restriction to protection domain of the present invention; One of ordinary skill in the art should be understood that; On the basis of technical scheme of the present invention, those skilled in the art need not pay various modifications that creative work can make or distortion still in protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. an extensive charging pile is characterized in that sub-district distribution system impact analysis decision system, comprises Surveillance center, data collection station, alternating-current charging pile,
Said Surveillance center comprises preposition service unit, data storage device, analysis decision service unit, is used for extensive charging pile sub-district distribution system impact analysis is made a strategic decision;
Pass through the network mode communication between said data collection station and the alternating-current charging pile;
Said preposition service unit comprises the server of the data acquisition that is used to charge at least, obtains the charging pile charging data that data collection station is gathered;
Said data storage device comprises at least one relational database server and at least one real-time data base server; Wherein, relational database is used to store sub-district distribution system capacity model, sub-district power load and the normal distribution model of electricity consumption time, sub-district charging pile monitoring model, sub-district distribution load historical data and required static data and the model of other analysis decisions; Real-time data base is used to store sub-district charging pile charging real time data;
Said data collection station be responsible for the sub-district in the alternating-current charging pile communication, obtain real time data when charging, comprise charging pile charged state, charging voltage, charging current, duration of charging and the available measurement data of other charging piles; Possess in the sub-district distribution system under the condition of protection measure and control device, data collection station also can obtain the distribution system operational factor with the communication of protection measure and control device;
Said analysis decision service unit comprises the server of be used to charge data monitoring, analysis, a decision-making at least, is used to create the required model of analysis decision, the monitoring of charging data in real time, the real-time analysis of sub-district electricity consumption situation, charging coordinated scheduling and controls.
2. extensive charging pile as claimed in claim 1 is to sub-district distribution system impact analysis decision system; It is characterized in that said preposition service unit and data collection station adopt IEC870-5-101, IEC60870-5-104, circulating telemechanical stipulations, CAN agreement or other universal communication stipulations to carry out data interaction through network, RS485 bus or CAN bus mode.
3. a decision-making technique that adopts the described extensive charging pile of claim 1 to sub-district distribution system impact analysis decision system is characterized in that, may further comprise the steps:
Step 1, foundation and storage sub-district low-voltage distribution system capacity model, sub-district power load and the normal distribution model of electricity consumption time, sub-district alternating-current charging pile monitoring model;
Alternating-current charging pile charging data in step 2, the sub-district of collection storage in real time;
Step 3, analysis decision server are according to charging real time data and sub-district power load and the normal distribution model of electricity consumption time, and the calculation plot distribution load is also stored;
Step 4, relatively generate according to distribution load curve and sub-district distribution system capacity model and to analyze conclusion and scheduling controlling decision-making and storage; Do not wait for that then the next analysis decision cycle carries out step 3 if do not need scheduling controlling; If need scheduling then to forward step 5 to;
Step 5, Surveillance center issue scheduling controlling order, control charging pile duration of charging, charging current to charging pile; Wait for that the next analysis decision cycle carries out step 3.
4. decision-making technique as claimed in claim 3; It is characterized in that; Sub-district low-voltage distribution system capacity model, sub-district power load and the normal distribution model of electricity consumption time of said step 1, sub-district alternating-current charging pile monitoring model all are saved to the relational database of data storage device;
Wherein, sub-district low-voltage distribution system capacity model comprises sub-district supply line quantity; Number transformer and transformer parameter; Sub-district distribution system mode of connection topology is showed; Said transformer parameter comprises: rated power, rated voltage, rated current, rated capacity and other parameters that can obtain;
The normal distribution model of sub-district power load and electricity consumption time adopts the autoregressive moving average method, generates according to sub-district electricity consumption historical data;
Sub-district alternating-current charging pile monitoring model comprises that the sub-district built up charging pile quantity, the monitoring of charging pile charging real time data: the data that charged state, charging current, charging voltage, charging warning information and other charging piles provide.
5. decision-making technique as claimed in claim 3; It is characterized in that; Alternating-current charging pile charging data are meant that data collection station gathers in the sub-district alternating-current charging pile data of charging in real time in the real-time collection storage sub-district of said step 2; Deliver to the preposition harvester of Surveillance center on the communication protocol according to the rules, preposition harvester is sent to data storage device after with the civilian dissection process of delivering newspaper on the data collection station that receives, and the data-storing device is saved in real-time data base with the charging pile data of charging.
6. decision-making technique as claimed in claim 5 is characterized in that, the concrete steps of said step 2 are described below:
2-1), electric vehicle alternating-current charging pile and data collection station communication, data such as charging pile duty, charging voltage, electric current are sent to data collection station;
2-2), data collection station and preposition service unit communication, on after all charging pile data centralizations in the sub-district that obtains, deliver to preposition service unit;
2-3), preposition service unit is judged and resolve communication packet, abandons error message, will resolve normal data and deliver to data storage device;
2-4), data storage device is according to data attribute, like deviation, memory gap, judges whether and need deposit data in real-time data base that the data that need not deposit in directly abandon.
7. decision-making technique as claimed in claim 3 is characterized in that, the concrete steps of said step 3 are described below:
3-1), the analysis decision service unit judges whether to arrive the timing cycle of analysis decision, if then from data storage device, call model data and charging real time data;
3-2), calculating real-time charging load, with sub-district power load and the stack of the normal distribution model of electricity consumption time, generation sub-district distribution load;
3-3), result of calculation stores the relational database of database service device into.
8. decision-making technique as claimed in claim 3 is characterized in that, the distribution load curve of said step 4 is in nearest one day, to calculate the gained distribution load to describe to form; The distribution load curve comprises the distribution load curve in the time, distribution load curve, power load and the normal distribution curve of electricity consumption time that emulation is not coordinated to charge;
Analyze conclusion and comprise whether current area causes adverse effect with electricity condition to the power distribution network load, and electric automobile permeability in sub-district under the current state;
The scheduling controlling decision-making comprises whether need carrying out scheduling controlling; Form scheduling strategy when needing scheduling: coordinate the charging behavior of sub-district electric automobile; Confirm in a period of time the optimum of the electric automobile charging strategy sub-district in, coordination charging electric vehicle opportunity, size of current and time length; And emulation forms not sub-district distribution load curve and sub-district electric automobile permeability under the operation dispatching strategy;
The scheduling controlling decision storage is to the relational database of database service device.
9. decision-making technique as claimed in claim 3 is characterized in that, the concrete steps of said step 5 are described below:
5-1), Surveillance center will coordinate control command and be issued to preposition service unit;
5-2), preposition service unit will be coordinated to be issued to data collection station after control command reorganizes;
5-3), data collection station will be coordinated control command and be issued to the charging pile that may command maybe need control and coordinate control.
10. decision-making technique as claimed in claim 4; It is characterized in that; Said autoregressive moving average method does, this method is regarded the time series of sub-district power load as a random series, and this group dependence that stochastic variable had is embodying sub-district power load continuity in time; Self change rule influence of influenced factor is simultaneously arranged, and influence factor comprises sub-district electricity consumption type, electricity consumption electricity price, weather, temperature, festivals or holidays, is designated as x
1, x
2..., x
k, by regretional analysis:
P＝β
0+β
1x
1+β
2x
2+...+β
kx
k+e
Wherein P is that the observed reading of power load is an actual value, and e is an error; As predicted value P
tReceive the influence that self changes, its rule can be embodied by following formula,
P
t＝β
0+β
1x
t-1+β
2x
t-2+...+β
px
t-p+e
In the above-mentioned formula, β
0, β
1β
kBe model parameter, k, t, p are positive integer;
Error term has dependence at different times, is expressed from the next,
e
t＝α
0+α
1e
t-1+α
2e
t-2+...+α
qe
t-q+μ
t
Wherein, α
0, α
1α
qBe model parameter, μ
tBe average, q, t are positive integer;
Thus, obtain the arma modeling expression formula:
P
t＝β
0+β
1x
t-1+β
2x
t-2+...+β
px
t-p+α
0+α
1e
t-1+α
2e
t-2+...+a
qe
t-q+μ
t。
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| CN103208091A (en) * | 2013-04-25 | 2013-07-17 | 国家电网公司 | Electric larceny preventing method based on data mining of electric load management system |
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| CN103280822A (en) * | 2013-05-27 | 2013-09-04 | 东南大学 | Intelligent distribution network scheduling management system for charging behavior of electric automobile |
| CN104463464A (en) * | 2014-12-07 | 2015-03-25 | 国网浙江省电力公司电动汽车服务分公司 | Power distribution system comprehensive planning method suitable for electric car large-scale application |
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| CN106208044A (en) * | 2016-08-05 | 2016-12-07 | 海南电力技术研究院 | Charging pile and distribution transformer coordinated operation method and apparatus |
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