CN102663579B - Origin-destination (OD) estimation method for traffic demand of port roadway based on freight processes - Google Patents
Origin-destination (OD) estimation method for traffic demand of port roadway based on freight processes Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses an origin-destination (OD) estimation method for the traffic demand of a port roadway based on freight processes. The method is based on an activity theory, the entire freight logistics procedure is taken as a research unit, the main traffic generation and attraction point of a harbor district is taken as a starting point, and the typical freight logistics procedure of cargo vehicles in the harbor district is taken as an analysis object. Under the precondition of obtaining these basic data which are the basic parameters of the storage yards of the harbor district, the flow rate of each egress and ingress sluice gate in the harbor district and the collecting and distributing proportion of a dock roadway, the cargo quantity of each storage yard and the cargo collecting and distributing quantity of the dock roadway are estimated, the attraction intensity of each sluice gate, each storage yard and each dock in the harbor district is analyzed, the selective probability of different travelling routes of different freight process modes is also calculated, the generation and attraction quantity of each OD pair of the harbor district is estimated so as to obtain an OD matrix for the traffic generation and attraction of a port roadway, finally a macroscopic model of the harbor district is constructed by utilizing a VISUM, the OD of the harbor district is inversed according to the measured flow rate, and the relative error of the OD matrix and the OD is compared so as to verify the reliability of model estimation.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to traffic programme field, be specifically related to a kind of Port Road transport need OD method of estimation based on shipping flow process.
Background technology
Traffic Demand Forecasting is one of core content in traffic programme, is the basis of traffic and transportation system of making rational planning for.The formulation of transport development policies, Transportation Network Design Problem and evaluate alternatives all have close contacting with Traffic Demand Forecasting.1962, the Forecasting Methodology proposing " generation-distribution-model split-distribution " in the traffic programme research of Chicago,U.S city indicated the formation of " four stages " traffic prediction model.
From travel demand forecast model development course, up to the present, travel demand forecast model can be divided into for 3 generations, first on behalf of Urban Transportation Planning System model, take Four-stage Method as representative, second on behalf of Discrete Choice Model, and the third generation is the travel demand model of based upon activities, and this model I can be divided into again the Discrete Choice Model of based upon activities and the realistic model of based upon activities.
Current most travel demand forecast model is all for general urban transportation, conventional Four-stage Method is simply applied mechanically as the demand forecast of the current port road volume of traffic generally adopts, but port road traffic is different from general urban transportation, port district serves primarily in inland transport traffic, main based on shipping, ratio shared by lorry is higher, and freight traffic generation attraction in port district is more fixing on the other hand, and great majority all concentrate on entering and leaving port district sluice gate, goods yard and harbour.Port district Traffic Demand Forecasting is different from Urban traffic demand prediction, and port district volume of traffic generation influence factor and urban transportation amount generate influence factor a great difference.The port district volume of traffic be produce vehicle and harbor service contact vehicle be master, have it specifically regular.If the traffic of port district is based on Container Transport, loose groceries, port district traffic volume forecast just should based on container truck, loose assorted goods stock, ro-ro transport vehicle and related service vehicle.In addition, harbor bound is compared with urban area, relatively little, pedestrian is less, Vehicle Speed is comparatively slow, and pavement of road is arranged and traffic administration also all has very big difference with urban transportation, adopts Four-stage Method prediction port road volume of traffic demand very not applicable because simple.
Summary of the invention
For above-mentioned the deficiencies in the prior art, the object of this invention is to provide a kind of according to port road traffic feature, the road traffic demand OD appraisal procedure based on freight traffic.
For solving the problems of the technologies described above, the present invention adopts following technical scheme:
Based on a Port Road transport need OD method of estimation for shipping flow process, it comprises the steps:
1) determine main OD point in the district of port, each sluice gate in Ji Gang district, stockyard, harbour, investigation obtains the road inland transport ratio of the area in each stockyard, port district, the number of plies and area utilization and each harbour;
2) car loading in each stockyard is calculated according to the area in each stockyard, the number of plies and area utilization, road inland transport ratio and the volume of goods transported dredged by each Wharf Road collection;
3) shipping process mode in the district of port is analyzed;
4) according to the car loading in each stockyard, each Wharf Road collection dredge shipping process mode in the volume of goods transported and port district calculate each sluice gate to each stockyard, each stockyard is to each harbour; Each sluice gate is to each harbour, each harbour to the select probability of each sluice gate;
5) according to actual measurement obtain each entering and leaving port sluice gate entering and leaving port flow, converting obtains the turnover flow of each stockyard and harbour, and calculate all sluice gates in port district, traffic generation traffic attraction between stockyard and each OD of harbour according to corresponding select probability, obtain port district and estimate OD matrix;
6) OD is counter to be pushed away to adopt VI SUM macromodel to carry out, obtain port district and calculate OD matrix, relatively calculate OD matrix and estimate OD matrix whether in error range, as then estimated in error range, OD matrix is final OD matrix, if not within error range, the then area utilization in each stockyard of planning and adjusting and the road inland transport ratio of each harbour again, and return step 2).
Preferably, step 3) in Zhong Gang district shipping process mode comprise sluice gate-stockyard-harbour, sluice gate-code first two.
Technique scheme has following beneficial effect: each link that should take into full account the shipping of Liao Gang district based on the Port Road transport need OD method of estimation of shipping flow process, analyze the sucting strength of main traffic generation attraction, build Port Road transport need estimation model on this basis, Port Road transport need OD method of estimation based on shipping flow process is proposed, have and calculate simple, the freight traffic given prominence to for port district also considers that detailed process in freight transportation process is to carry out the advantages such as traffic distribution.
Above-mentioned explanation is only the general introduction of technical solution of the present invention, in order to better understand technological means of the present invention, and can be implemented according to the content of instructions, coordinates accompanying drawing to be described in detail to this patent below with preferred embodiment of the present invention.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the process flow diagram of the embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is embodiment of the present invention sluice gate-stockyard-Freight Dock process mode schematic diagram.
Fig. 3 is embodiment of the present invention sluice gate-Freight Dock process mode schematic diagram.
Fig. 4 is that limb schematic diagram selected by embodiment of the present invention sluice gate-stockyard-harbour.
Fig. 5 is that limb schematic diagram selected by embodiment of the present invention sluice gate-harbour.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, the preferred embodiments of the present invention are described in detail.
The present invention is directed to the prominent feature of Port Road traffic based on freight traffic, particularly for the typical shipping flow process in port district, a kind of method of estimation of the Port Road transport need based on shipping flow process is proposed, take into full account each link of port district shipping, analyze the sucting strength of main traffic generation attraction, build Port Road transport need estimation model on this basis.
The present invention has following features:
(1) based upon activities is theoretical, with whole shipping flow process for research unit, with port district main traffic generation attraction for starting point, with the typical shipping flow process of goods vehicle in the district of port for analytic target;
(2) because harbour serves primarily in inland transport traffic, its traffic origination point and attraction more fixing, port district main traffic origination point and attraction concentrate on entering and leaving port sluice gate, stockyard and harbour, therefore carry out Port Road transport need estimation using sluice gate, stockyard, harbour as traffic zone;
(3) from (such as 1 year) in Long time scale, for road transport, in the port district turnover goods total amount of sluice gate and port, the total car loading of road transport of all harbours keeps balancing, then from sluice gate-stockyard-harbour and total car loading that should equal harbour from the goods total amount first two pattern of sluice gate-code;
(4) factor affecting port heap field energy holding freight amount comprises storage space, stores up the number of plies, area utilization, estimates the goods total amount in each stockyard, harbour with these 3 influence factors;
(5) road inland transport occupies an important position in the comprehensive inland transport system in harbour.And in different port district, in the transporting something containerized of different goods and transport process, roadnet plays different effects.For the turnover hour road Traffic Volume of port and pier, calculate each Wharf Road freight total amount according to the ratio shared by road inland transport;
(6) take cargo handling capacity as the factor affecting effectiveness, analyze each sluice gate in the district of port, stockyard and harbour sucting strength to the route selection of each trip, the travel amount that the estimation each OD in port district is right on this basis and traffic attraction.
In order to reach above object, for the Port Road transport need estimation model based on shipping flow process that the present invention proposes, first following key concept to be specified:
1) logistics
A logistics refers to that goods stock transports goods to harbour from directly being approached by sluice gate after the vanning of foreign goods seedbed, port, midway without any need for transfer or stop.
2) freight transfer station
Freight transfer station refers to when the ship conveyed goods also does not arrive harbour or harbour without stop berth, and goods directly can not enter harbour but need to transport goods yard to be waited for, is the equal of freight transfer station in Goods in Port Area stockyard.
3) second logistic
Second logistic refers to that freight transportation needs just can transport to the process of harbour after freight transfer station.
4) goods is assembled
Goods assembles the connotation comprising two aspects:
(1) to approach assembly: goods approaches from foreign goods seedbed, port and is transported to freight station or harbour,
The process of lot cargo stacking is formed at freight station and harbour place.
(2) to leave the port assembly: goods, from after harbour transported to by external or nonlocal ship, is formed at harbour
Lot cargo leave the port wait for process.
5) goods is evacuated
Goods evacuates that to assemble with goods be comparatively speaking, and when lot cargo waits for transport entering and leaving port, vehicle arrives the process that harbour or terminal are evacuated goods successively.
6) typical shipping process mode
(1) sluice gate-stockyard-harbour: stacks of cargo is placed on stockyard, before ship landing pier, empty wagon leaves for harbour after arriving stockyard vanning by sluice gate and carries out unloading shipment, returns afterwards along harbour-stockyard-sluice gate again, belong to second logistic process, detailed process is shown in accompanying drawing 2;
(2) sluice gate-harbour: vehicle from after goods is loaded onto in foreign goods seedbed, port, directly from sluice gate by goods handling to harbour, left the port by sluice gate from harbour again after unsnatching goods, belong to a logistics progress,
Detailed process is shown in accompanying drawing 3.
The Port Road transport need method of estimation based on shipping flow process that the present invention proposes, its basic ideas are as follows: based upon activities is theoretical, with whole freight logistics process for research unit, with port district main traffic generation attraction for starting point, with the typical freight logistics process of goods vehicle in the district of port for analytic target, in acquisition Gang Qu stockyard, basic parameter (comprises storage space, the stockyard number of plies and storage space utilization factor), each sluice gate flow of coming in and going out in the district of port, under the prerequisite of these master datas of Wharf Road inland transport ratio, estimate each stockyard car loading and Wharf Road inland transport car loading, with goods traffic attraction for affecting the factor of effectiveness, analyze each sluice gate in the district of port, the sucting strength of stockyard and harbour is selected each traffic path, estimate the travel amount that each OD in port district is right and traffic attraction on this basis, obtain the OD matrix that Port Road traffic occurs to attract, VISUM is finally utilized to set up port district macromodel, according to measured discharge Fan Tuigang district OD, the relative error of both employings carrys out the reliability of verification model estimation.Its basic procedure is as shown in Figure 1:
First determine main OD point in the district of port, each sluice gate in Ji Gang district, stockyard, harbour, investigation obtains the road inland transport ratio of the area in each stockyard, the number of plies and area utilization and each harbour; Then the car loading in each stockyard is calculated according to the area in each stockyard, the number of plies and area utilization, road inland transport ratio and the volume of goods transported dredged by each Wharf Road collection.
Suppose that there is m sluice gate in investigation get Dao Gang district, n stockyard, l harbour, need to obtain following data:
(1) each sluice gate approaches flow O
eiwith the flow O that leaves the port
oi
(2) goods total amount H is passed in and out in each stockyard
dj
(3) each harbour goods total amount H
ek, H
ok
Wherein i=1,2,3 ..., m, j=1,2,3 ..., n, k=1,2,3 ..., l, e represent into, o indicates, and d represents stockyard.
The factor affecting Container Yard energy holding freight amount comprises storage space, stores up the number of plies, area utilization.Container Yard car loading specific formula for calculation is:
H
d＝s·ρ·β/s
0
(1)
In formula: H
d---stockyard can holding freight amount (TEU);
The average number of plies stored up by ρ---container;
β---load efficiency, interval 0.7-0.8.
S---storage space, square metre;
S
0---single standard truck accounts for storage space, and value is 15 square metres.
Investigation obtains the situation in each stockyard, port district, calculates each stockyard stack goods total amount after understanding storage space and storing up the number of plies by above formula.
Sluice gate entering and leaving port flow O
eiand O
oibe all a hour flow (TEU (Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit)/hour, i.e. TEU/h), and stockyard and harbour year goods total amount H
d, H
ek, H
okfor ton/year, first the goods total amount in stockyard and harbour to be converted into TEU/h.The maximum cargo total amount that 1 TEU (Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit) (40 feet of casees) can be transported is 30.48 tons, if port district peak hour flow is than being k
1, then each stockyard turnover hourly traffic volume is calculated as follows.
Road inland transport occupies an important position in the comprehensive inland transport system in PORT OF TIANJIN.And in different port district, in the transporting something containerized of different goods and transport process, roadnet plays different effects.For the turnover hourly traffic volume of harbour, first calculate the goods total amount of road transport according to the ratio shared by road inland transport.
H
tek＝H
ek·k
2
H
tok＝H
ok·k
3
In formula: k
2for road transport collection port ratio, k
3for road transport is cleared out a harbour ratio.
Each harbour turnover hourly traffic volume is calculated as follows.
Then shipping process mode in the district of port is analyzed, from (such as 1 year) in Long time scale, for road transport, in the port district turnover goods total amount of sluice gate and port, the total car loading of road transport of all harbours keeps balancing, then from sluice gate-stockyard-harbour (pattern one) and total car loading that should equal harbour from the goods total amount sluice gate-harbour (pattern two) two kinds of patterns.Based on this level theory, first calculate the select probability of two kinds of mode of freight transportations.
The probability of freight transportation selection mode of freight transportation one is:
The select probability of mode of freight transportation two is: P
1=1-P
Between each traffic origination point and attraction, the ratio that the year car loading of each stockyard and harbour accounts for all stockyards and the total car loading of harbour is the sucting strength of this stockyard and harbour.
● mode of freight transportation one
If select shipping process mode one during vehicle transport goods, then at each sluice gate place, going to stockyard has n to select limb, enters after stockyard loading terminates, goes to harbour to have l selection limb, as shown in Figure 4:
(1) vehicle approaches from i sluice gate, then the probability in its selection j stockyard is
(2) probability entering k harbour from stockyard j is
(3) probability returning stockyard j from k harbour is
(4) from the probability of stockyard j to i sluice gate be
● mode of freight transportation two
If shipping process mode two selected by vehicle, vehicle is by after sluice gate, and directly go to harbour, entering and leaving port district has m kind to select, by going to harbour to have l kind to select after sluice gate, as shown in Figure 5:
(1) vehicle approaches from i sluice gate, goes to the probability of k harbour to be
(2) probability of i sluice gate is turned back to from harbour k:
Sluice gate turnover flow O
ei, O
oi, stockyard turnover flow E
ej, E
oj, harbour turnover flow D
ej, D
oj.
Each sluice gate that last basis calculates to each stockyard, each stockyard is to each harbour; Each sluice gate is to each harbour, each harbour to the select probability of each sluice gate, and actual measurement obtains the entering and leaving port flow of each entering and leaving port sluice gate, the turnover flow of convert each stockyard of obtaining and harbour, calculate port district all sluice gates, traffic generating capacity between stockyard and each OD of harbour and traffic attraction, obtain harbour estimated matrix, calculate and gather in Table.
Table 1 OD calculates summary sheet
OD is counter to be pushed away finally to adopt VISUM macromodel to carry out, obtain port district and calculate OD matrix, relatively calculate OD matrix and estimate OD matrix whether in error range, as then estimated in error range, OD matrix is final OD matrix, if not within error range, then reset the area utilization in each stockyard and the road inland transport ratio of each harbour, and repeat above-mentioned steps, again the area in each stockyard of planning and adjusting and the area utilization of the number of plies and setting, road inland transport ratio calculates the car loading in each stockyard and the volume of goods transported dredged by each Wharf Road collection, until calculate OD matrix and estimate that the error range of OD matrix is within specialized range.
Each link of Liao Gang district shipping should be taken into full account based on the Port Road transport need OD method of estimation of shipping flow process, analyze the sucting strength of main traffic generation attraction, build Port Road transport need estimation model on this basis, port road functional classification method based on shipping flow process is proposed, have and calculate simple, the freight traffic given prominence to for port district also considers that detailed process in freight transportation process is to carry out the advantages such as traffic distribution.
Below with a specific embodiment, the present invention will be further described:
The Port Road transport need method of estimation of the present embodiment is used for certain port district road network, and this port district road network has 6 mainly to pass in and out sluice gate, 15 goods yards, 13 harbours and company.This storage yard area utilization is 0.78, and it is 3 layers that stockyard goods stacks the number of plies.This harbour is divided into North SinKiang and South Sinkiang two parts, and port district, North SinKiang is mainly container set transport traffic, the mainly bulk goods inland transport traffic of port district, South Sinkiang.
Table 2 North SinKiang and South Sinkiang peak hour factor and road inland transportation ratio
Table 3 port district mainly passes in and out sluice gate flowmeter
The main goods yard in table 4 port district
| Numbering | Stockyard title | Area (sq-km) | Container number | Goods total amount (ton/year) | TEU/h |
| 1 | China South Korean products field | 0.674 | 202200 | 3081528 | 100 |
| 2 | Accumulating incorporated company | 0.508 | 143933 | 2193544 | 71 |
| 3 | The prompt stockyard of thing | 0.45 | 127500 | 1943100 | 63 |
| 4 | Container Yard | 0.613 | 183900 | 2802636 | 91 |
| 5 | The gloomy Container Yard in sea | 1.148 | 325267 | 4957064 | 160 |
| 6 | Zhenhua stockyard | 0.304 | 96267 | 1467104 | 47 |
| 7 | Strong stockyard, port | 0.447 | 126650 | 1930146 | 62 |
| 8 | Stockyard 1 | 0.672 | 201600 | 3072384 | 99 |
| 9 | Stockyard 2 | 0.601 | 170283 | 2595118 | 84 |
| 10 | Container Cargo Distribution Centre | 0.586 | 166033 | 2530348 | 82 |
| 11 | Stockyard 3 | 0.48 | 136000 | 2072640 | 67 |
| 12 | Stockyard 4 | 0.591 | 187150 | 2852166 | 92 |
| 13 | Stockyard 5 | 0.695 | 196917 | 3001010 | 97 |
| 14 | Stockyard 6 | 0.551 | 156117 | 2379218 | 77 |
| 15 | Stockyard 7 | 0.455 | 128917 | 1964690 | 64 |
The main harbour in table 5 port district
Calculate the traffic generation traffic attraction of each main OD point according to the model formation in table 1, finally obtain the OD matrix showing 5-1 to 5-6.
Table 5-1 sluice gate-stockyard
Table 5-2 stockyard-harbour
Table 5-3 harbour-stockyard
Table 5-4 stockyard-sluice gate
Table 5-5 sluice gate-harbour
Table 5-6 harbour-sluice gate
Above a kind of Port Road transport need OD method of estimation based on shipping flow process that the embodiment of the present invention provides is described in detail; for one of ordinary skill in the art; according to the thought of the embodiment of the present invention; all will change in specific embodiments and applications; in sum; this description should not be construed as limitation of the present invention, and all any changes made according to design philosophy of the present invention are all within protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (1)
1., based on a Port Road transport need OD method of estimation for shipping flow process, it is characterized in that, it comprises the steps:
1) determine main OD point in the district of port, each sluice gate in Ji Gang district, stockyard, harbour, investigation obtains the road inland transport ratio of the area in each stockyard, port district, the number of plies and area utilization and each harbour;
2) car loading in each stockyard is calculated according to the area in each stockyard, the number of plies and area utilization, road inland transport ratio and the volume of goods transported dredged by each Wharf Road collection;
3) analyze shipping process mode in the district of port, in the district of described port shipping process mode comprise sluice gate-stockyard-harbour, sluice gate-code first two;
4) according to the car loading in each stockyard, each Wharf Road collection dredge shipping process mode in the volume of goods transported and port district calculate each sluice gate to each stockyard, each stockyard to each harbour and each sluice gate to each harbour, each harbour is to the select probability of each sluice gate;
Be mode of freight transportation one from sluice gate-stockyard-harbour, be mode of freight transportation two from sluice gate-harbour, suppose that there is m sluice gate in port district, n stockyard, l harbour;
Freight transportation selects the probability of described mode of freight transportation one to be:
if described mode of freight transportation one is selected in freight transportation, then at each sluice gate place, go to stockyard have n select limb, enter stockyard loading terminate after, go to harbour have l selection limb; Vehicle approaches from i sluice gate, then the probability in its selection j stockyard is
the probability entering k harbour from stockyard j is
the probability returning stockyard j from k harbour is
from the probability of stockyard j to i sluice gate be
Freight transportation selects the probability of described mode of freight transportation two to be: P
1=1-P; If described mode of freight transportation two is selected in freight transportation, vehicle is by after sluice gate, and directly go to harbour, entering and leaving port district has m kind to select, and has l kind to select by going to harbour after sluice gate; Vehicle approaches from i sluice gate, goes to the probability of k harbour to be
the probability of i sluice gate is turned back to from harbour k:
Wherein H
djfor passing in and out goods total amount in each stockyard, each harbour goods total amount is H
ek, H
ok, i=1,2,3 ..., m, j=1,2,3 ..., n, k=1,2,3 ..., l; E represent into, O indicates, and d represents stockyard; H
tek=H
ekk
2, H
tok=H
okk
3, k
2for road transport collection port ratio, k
3for road transport is cleared out a harbour ratio; O
eifor each sluice gate approaches flow, O
oifor each sluice gate leaves the port flow;
5) according to actual measurement obtain each entering and leaving port sluice gate entering and leaving port flow, converting obtains the turnover flow of each stockyard and harbour, and calculate all sluice gates in port district, traffic generation traffic attraction between stockyard and each OD of harbour according to corresponding select probability, obtain port district and estimate OD matrix;
6) OD is counter to be pushed away to adopt VISUM macromodel to carry out, obtain port district and calculate OD matrix, relatively calculate OD matrix and estimate OD matrix whether in error range, as then estimated in error range, OD matrix is final OD matrix, if not within error range, the then area utilization in each stockyard of planning and adjusting and the road inland transport ratio of each harbour again, and return step 2).
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