CN102567639A - Method for evaluating reliability of aircraft engine aiming at competing failure - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention relates to a method for evaluating reliability of an aircraft engine aiming at competing failure. The method comprises the steps of: analyzing a failure rule of the aircraft engine, explaining influences of degradation failure and sudden failure to the reliability of the aircraft engine, judging whether belonging to a competing failure form; proposing an aircraft engine reliability information processing method aiming at the competing failure; acquiring performance degradation data of the aircraft engine, carrying out information fusion by adopting a Bayes linear model, establishing an aircraft engine performance degradation evaluation model; describing a random process of aircraft engine performance degradation by applying a Gamma process; establishing an aircraft engine reliability evaluation model based on performance degradation failure, fusing information of different time sequence points by adopting a Bayes method through using event information of an aircraft engine, establishing an aircraft engine reliability evaluation model based on the sudden failure; and establishing an aircraft engine system reliability evaluation model based on the competing failure, and integrating the degradation failure and the sudden failure of the aircraft engine performance into a frame for analyzing, and calculating the reliability of the completing failure of the aircraft engine.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to reliability evaluation of an aircraft engine, in particular to the reliability evaluation of the system of the aircraft engine under the conditions that two competitive failures, namely performance degradation and sudden failure, exist and correlation exists between the performance degradation and the competitive failure, so that the reliability of the aircraft engine is avoided from being overestimated or underestimated, and the reliability evaluation accuracy of the aircraft engine is improved.
Background
The reliability level of an aircraft engine directly affects flight safety, and in addition, the reliability of the aircraft engine as a complex repairable system has a great influence on maintenance cost. Therefore, scientific assessment of the reliability level of an aircraft engine is one of the important means for realizing the coordinated optimization of safety and economy. The related research results can be applied to the field of airplane operation and the field of design of aero-engines.
An aircraft engine is a typical complex system, the particularity of the reliability evaluation is determined, and the application of the traditional reliability evaluation method is challenged. The complexity is represented by the following three aspects: one is the complexity of reliability information processing and utilization. Traditional reliability assessment methods rely on fault data; the aircraft engine has the characteristic of high operation reliability, and generally can only acquire less fault data or cannot acquire the fault data at all; the aircraft engine, however, has a wealth of condition monitoring information that represents the performance of the aircraft engine from different side signatures. The utilization of the information and the accuracy of the evaluation result are in a highly positive correlation, and how to combine the characteristics of the engine to fully utilize various information is a precondition and a key for evaluating the reliability of the aircraft engine. Secondly, the coexistence of multiple failure modes increases the complexity of reliability evaluation. The traditional reliability evaluation generally assumes a fault mode or single point fault, but in terms of aviation engine engineering practice, the fault modes have diversity, and classification is performed only by the major categories of the fault modes, so that performance degradation based failure and sudden fault failure can be classified; and the failure caused by different failure modes is essentially a competitive risk relationship, which further increases the complexity of the analysis. Thirdly, the correlation between different failure modes increases the complexity of the reliability assessment computation. When different failure modes exist in the framework of competing failures, the calculation is relatively simple if it has no correlation; but if there is correlation between different failure modes, the difficulty of calculation is greatly increased.
The method for evaluating the reliability of the aircraft engine based on the competitive failure has the advantages that firstly, the processing and the utilization of monitoring information and fault information are considered, the utilization efficiency of the information is improved, and data support is provided for reliability evaluation; establishing an aircraft engine reliability evaluation model based on competition failure under the condition that both burst failure and performance degradation failure exist; thirdly, in a competitive failure reliability evaluation model with correlation between the degradation failure and the burst failure, a simplified calculation method is provided. The method provided by the invention has small data acquisition difficulty and stronger operability; the method can be applied to reliability analysis with two competitive failure conditions, and can be further popularized and applied to reliability evaluation with multiple competitive failure conditions.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide an aircraft engine reliability evaluation method aiming at competitive failure, which fully considers the characteristics of the complexity of aircraft engine reliability information processing, the multiforms of failure modes, the correlation among different failure modes and the like, improves the information utilization efficiency by analyzing and processing monitoring information and event information, and establishes an aircraft engine reliability evaluation model based on competitive failure by considering two conditions of sudden failure and performance degradation failure so as to realize the aim of improving the reliability evaluation accuracy of the aircraft engine.
In order to achieve the purpose, the method for evaluating the reliability of the aircraft engine aiming at the competitive failure comprises the following steps:
1. analyzing the failure rule of the aircraft engine, analyzing the influence of degradation failure and sudden failure as two typical failure modes on the reliability level of the aircraft engine, and judging whether the failure mode of the aircraft engine belongs to competitive failure.
2. A method for processing reliability information of an aircraft engine aiming at competitive failure is provided. Aiming at performance degradation failure, monitoring information is collected, a Bayesian linear model is applied to fuse the monitoring information, and the information utilization efficiency is improved; aiming at the sudden failure, event information (including fault information, maintenance information and inspection information) is collected, a Bayesian method is applied, and information related to the sudden failure of different time sequence points is comprehensively utilized through information of prior and posterior estimation, so that the information utilization efficiency is improved.
3. And establishing an aircraft engine performance degradation evaluation model. On the basis of carrying out dimensionless processing on the monitoring information, designing a Bayesian linear model containing noise parameters to fuse the multisource monitoring information, calculating relevant parameters of the Bayesian linear model, and estimating the performance degradation degree of the aircraft engine.
4. Aiming at the characteristic that the degradation quantity of the aero-engine has monotonous increasing property, describing the performance degradation of the aero-engine by applying a Gamma random process, and establishing an aero-engine reliability evaluation model R based on the performance degradationg(t) ═ P { w (t) < epsilon }, where t denotes a certain time, Rg(t) represents the reliability of the degradation of the performance at a certain moment, w (t) represents the cumulative degradation of the aircraft engine performance at the moment t, and epsilon represents a threshold value for the degradation of the aircraft engine performance specified.
5. Aiming at the characteristics of sudden failure of the aircraft engine, an aircraft engine sudden failure reliability evaluation model based on Weibull distribution is established, shape parameters of the Weibull distribution are determined by expected values of performance degradation evaluation results of the aircraft engine in the step 3, scale parameters are assumed to obey Gamma distribution, prior information is determined by maintenance information, inspection information and fault information, and the reliability R of the aircraft engine based on sudden failure is evaluated by combining a Bayesian method with the running time of the aircraft engines(t)。
6. Establishing an aircraft engine system reliability evaluation model aiming at the competitive failure, wherein the expression is as follows, <math>
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</math> wherein T isgIndicating the time at which a performance degradation failure occurred, TsIndicating the time at which the burst failure occurred. On the premise of the assumption that the performance degradation failure and the burst failure have correlation, the performance degradation failure and the burst failure cannot be simplified, but the influence of the performance degradation on the burst failure is reflected in the shape parameters of the Weibull distribution, so that the R can be simplified to obtain the Rc(t)＝P(T＞t)＝P(Tg＞t，Ts＞t)＝Rg(t)·RsAnd (t) further utilizing the output results of the step 4 and the step 5 to calculate the reliability of the aircraft engine system based on the competition failure.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following advantages and effects:
(1) an aircraft engine reliability evaluation model aiming at competitive failure is established, and overestimation or underestimation of reliability is avoided. The coexistence of multiple failure modes is one of the basic characteristics of a complex system, and the invention analyzes the action mechanism of the influence of the performance degradation failure and the sudden failure on the reliability level of the aircraft engine and the correlation between the performance degradation failure and the sudden failure. The defect that the traditional reliability evaluation method mainly aims at a fault mode and cannot adapt to the actual aviation engine engineering is overcome.
(2) A reliability information processing and utilizing method aiming at performance degradation failure and burst failure is provided, and data utilization efficiency is improved. Evaluating the performance degradation reliability of the aircraft engine by adopting a state monitoring information fusion method; the reliability of the sudden failure of the aircraft engine is evaluated by applying the event information (fault information, maintenance information and inspection information) and the performance degradation information of the whole life cycle. The information related to the reliability of the aero-engine is fully utilized, and a favorable support is provided for improving the reliability evaluation accuracy of the aero-engine.
(3) The reliability evaluation calculation difficulty under the condition of competitive failure related to multiple failure modes is simplified. The performance degradation degree is estimated by monitoring information, two kinds of competitive failures, namely degradation failure and sudden failure, are connected by taking the performance degradation degree as a 'tie', the original complex multivariate integral solving problem is converted into a reliability value of the sudden failure and a reliability value of the degradation failure which are respectively calculated, and the difficulty of reliability evaluation is reduced.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of an aircraft engine reliability assessment for a race failure;
FIG. 2 is a flow chart for evaluating aircraft engine performance degradation using a Bayesian linear model.
Detailed Description
Aiming at the situation that sudden failure and degradation failure of the aero-engine exist at the same time, the two failures are a competitive failure mode and affect the reliability level of the aero-engine together, the reliability evaluation method for the aero-engine aiming at the competitive failure is provided, and the implementation process can be divided into the following 6 steps, as shown in fig. 1.
1. Analyzing the failure rule of the aircraft engine, analyzing the influence of degradation failure and sudden failure as two typical failure modes on the reliability level of the aircraft engine, and judging whether the failure mode of the aircraft engine belongs to competitive failure.
The failure of the complex system has the characteristic of coexistence of multiple failure modes, and can be divided into performance degradation failure and burst failure according to different failure mechanisms. The sudden failure refers to the sudden loss of the specified function at a certain moment, and the degeneration failure refers to the gradual decline of the performance and the final failure to complete the specified function. The actual failure process of the aircraft engine is a combination of a degradation failure and a sudden failure, and is a competitive failure mode, and in most cases, a certain correlation exists between the two.
The failure data of the aero-engine is collected, the probability of sudden failure is judged through fault, maintenance and inspection information, the probability of degradation failure is judged through monitoring information, and whether the aero-engine belongs to a competitive failure mode or not is further judged.
2. A reliability processing method for an aircraft engine aiming at competitive failure is provided.
The performance degradation monitoring index is selected from gas circuit performance monitoring, lubricating oil monitoring and vibration monitoring indexes. The gas circuit performance monitoring mainly reflects the performance state change of the engine through thermodynamic parameters, the lubricating oil monitoring is suitable for mechanical wear fault monitoring and diagnosis, and the vibration monitoring is suitable for wear or damage during rotation. Therefore, the invention selects the following 6 monitoring indexes, and covers the contents of gas circuit performance monitoring, lubricating oil monitoring and vibration monitoring. The method comprises the following steps: the engine exhaust temperature deviation, the fuel consumption deviation, the high-pressure rotor rotating speed deviation, the lubricating oil pressure deviation, the low-pressure rotor vibration value deviation and the high-pressure rotor vibration value deviation. And fusing the information by adopting a Bayesian linear model, and establishing the relationship between each monitoring parameter and the performance degradation. The information fused by the invention is the deviation of the monitoring data, but not the monitoring data. The basic principle of the treatment is as follows:
the deviation value of the monitoring data is the actual monitoring value-the standard value of the monitoring index
Aiming at the reliability evaluation of the sudden failure, event information and state recession information are collected, the service life of the sudden failure is assumed to obey Weibull distribution, the Weibull distribution has two parameters, one is a shape parameter and the other is a scale parameter, and the recession rule represented by the shape parameter is determined by the expected value of the performance recession degree; the scale parameters can be determined by assuming that the gamma distribution is subjected to prior obedience, calculating two hyper-parameters of the gamma distribution through information obtained by fault information, maintenance information and inspection information, and determining a posterior estimation value by combining operation information.
3. And a Bayesian linear model is adopted, state monitoring information is fused, and the performance degradation degree of the aircraft engine is evaluated.
A flow chart for evaluating the degradation degree of the aircraft engine performance by using the bayesian linear model is shown in fig. 2.
The basic process is as follows:
(1) collecting samples and standardizing the data. The deviation values of the condition information are collected, as well as performance degradation values corresponding to the deviation values of the condition monitoring (such information is typically collected when the engine is replaced, maintained, or repaired). The formula for the normalization process is:
suppose the ith monitor indicator deviation value is given as viDenotes, with j denotes the monitor sequence, vijRepresents the j-th monitoring index deviation value, v, of the ith monitoring objectimaxMaximum deviation value, v, representing the ith monitoring indeximinAnd the minimum deviation value of the ith monitoring index is shown. The normalized monitoring deviation value is then:
suppose that the performance degradation value acquired by the jth time sequence is expressed as yj(negative deviation of performance index), the normalization method is expressed as:
(2) fusion of state monitoring information using a Bayesian linear model
It is assumed that the degree of degradation of the performance of an aircraft engine can be characterized by performance monitoring parameters that are in a matrix
Wherein k represents the number of monitored parameters, XgkIs a row-column vector of n, n representing the number of observations. Considering that most of the aircraft engines are determined to have certain errors according to the monitoring parameters, the errors are represented by e, and the relationship between the performance degradation and the state monitoring parameters can be represented by the following random equation:
wherein,
eiindependent of each other, obey normal distribution N (0, sigma)2) Where σ is2Are known.
In a given observation set XgThen, the prior expectation of theta is converted into the posterior expectation, and Bayes MSE (mean square error) matrix is formed by selecting coefficients
At a minimum, the expression is:
the estimator obtained in the above manner was a Linear Minimum Mean Square Error (LMMSE) estimator (Bayes-Gauss-Markov quantification).
E(θ)＝(Xg TXg)-1Xg TY, covariance matrix of ((X)g TXg)-1)σ2
(3) According to the formula, calculating the coefficient vector of each monitoring parameter to the performance degradation degree
(4) And inputting newly acquired state monitoring information and calculating a performance degradation evaluation result.
4. And establishing an aircraft engine reliability evaluation model based on performance degradation.
The method comprises the following steps:
(1) description of aircraft engine stochastic degradation process
Assuming that the performance degradation degree of the aeroengine at the time t is y (t), the performance degradation degree is monotonously reduced along with the increase of the using time, and the initial performance parameter value of the product is recorded as y0W (t) y (t) -y (t)0) And the accumulated degradation amount of the aircraft engine at the time t is shown. The Gamma procedure was chosen to describe the performance degradation procedure described above. Assuming that the amount of degradation w (t) obeys the Gamma distribution Ga (μ (t), λ) with a density function of: <math>
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wherein: alpha and lambda are respectively a shape parameter and a scale parameter; x is belonged to A, IA(ξ)＝1，
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Is a Gamma function.
(2) Performance reliability assessment
On the basis of the concept of system reliability, reliability based on performance degradation is proposed as shown in the following formula:
where T denotes a certain time, R (T) denotes the reliability at a certain time, TgRepresenting the time that the aircraft engine has elapsed from a sound condition until it enters a failure condition, w (t) representing the degree of degradation of the aircraft engine at time t, epsilon representing a specified threshold value for degradation of the aircraft engine performance, epsilon being the threshold value for failure of the aircraft engine performance. The time parameter t is used for establishing the relation between the performance degradation degree and the reliability level, so that the reliability evaluation of the aeroengine on the wing is realized.
5. Establishing an aircraft engine reliability evaluation model based on sudden failure
The basic process is as follows:
(1) assuming that under sudden failure, the life of an aircraft engine follows a two-parameter weibull distribution, which is expressed as:
wherein β > 0 and γ > 0, respectively representing a scale parameter and a shape parameter.
(2) And gamma represents a performance decline process, and the value of the performance decline process can be obtained through the performance degradation obtained through the step 3, namely y (t).
(3) In order to effectively fuse the data of the whole life cycle of the aircraft engine, under the condition that the shape parameters are known, the shape parameters are converted into the learning of the scale parameters. Assuming that the prior distribution of scale parameters follows a gamma distribution, the expression for which is:
then its a priori estimate is: <math>
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(4) obtaining observation data m times { (t)s1，ns1)，…，(tsi，nsi)，…，(tsm，nsm) Where tiIndicating the time of failure, niRepresenting the number of failures), the a posteriori estimate of the scale parameter can be expressed as:
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(5) the determination of the hyperparameters in Ga (c, d) is generally based on fault information, inspection information and maintenance information. In general, the superparameters c and d cannot be determined directly, e.g., at a given reliability R0Lower reliable life tR0Due to the mean and variance of the pre-test information
And obtaining the over-parameter values of c and d through conversion.
(6) By determining the posterior values of the hyper-parameters c, d, the posterior expected value of β can be further determined.
(7) Calculating according to the determined parameter beta and the known parameter gamma
6. Establishing a competitive failure aeroengine reliability evaluation model
The basic assumptions of the model are as follows:
firstly, the aero-engine has two types of failure models, one type is a degeneration failure model, the other type is a burst failure mode, and the two types of failure models compete with each other to cause the aero-engine to fail;
the performance of the aircraft engine is gradually reduced along with the running time, and the degradation process is irreversible;
and thirdly, the occurrence of the sudden failure of the aircraft engine is related to the performance, and the shape parameters in the reliability distribution function of the sudden failure of the aircraft engine are determined according to the performance degradation degree.
The algorithm comprises the following steps:
(1) determining the reliability expression of the product at the time t under the competitive failure mode:
wherein R isc(t) indicates the reliability of the contention failure.
(2) Two failure modes based on competing failures are simplified. Under the condition of competitive failure, if two failure modes have correlation, simplification cannot be realized, but because the relationship between performance degradation failure and sudden failure is established by estimating the performance degradation amount, the influence of the relationship on the reliability of the performance degradation failure and the reliability of the sudden failure is reflected in respective service life distribution functions, namely the joint probability is expressed by multiplying the two failure probabilities. The expression is as follows:
(3) in the calculation of R separatelys(t) and Rg(t) calculating Rc(t)。
Claims (7)
1. An aircraft engine reliability assessment method aiming at competitive failure is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 1: analyzing the failure rule of the aero-engine, explaining the influence of the degradation failure and the sudden failure on the reliability of the aero-engine, and judging whether the aero-engine belongs to a competitive failure mode;
step 2: respectively processing reliability data aiming at performance degradation failure and burst failure;
and step 3: establishing an aircraft engine performance degradation evaluation model;
and 4, step 4: establishing an aircraft engine reliability evaluation model based on performance degradation failure;
and 5: establishing an aircraft engine reliability evaluation model based on sudden failure;
step 6: and establishing an aircraft engine system reliability evaluation model aiming at the competitive failure, and calculating the reliability of the aircraft engine.
2. The method for evaluating the reliability of the aircraft engine aiming at the competitive failure as claimed in claim 1, wherein in the step 1, the failure rule of the aircraft engine is analyzed, the degradation failure and the sudden failure are shown as the influence of two typical failure models on the reliability level of the aircraft engine, and whether the model belongs to the competitive failure mode is judged.
3. The method for evaluating the reliability of the aircraft engine aiming at the competitive failure according to claim 1, wherein in the step 2, for the performance degradation failure of the aircraft engine, the information of gas circuit performance monitoring, oil lubrication monitoring and vibration monitoring is selected to be fused to support the evaluation of the performance degradation reliability of the aircraft engine; and extracting sudden failure reliability information from maintenance, inspection and failure information of the aero-engine, fusing information of different time sequence points, and supporting sudden failure reliability evaluation of the aero-engine.
4. The method for evaluating reliability of an aircraft engine aiming at the competitive failure as claimed in claim 1, wherein in the step 3, a monitoring information fusion model of noise-containing data is designed, and a Bayesian linear model is adopted to evaluate the performance degradation of the aircraft engine.
5. The method for evaluating reliability of an aircraft engine aiming at the competitive failure as claimed in claim 1, wherein in the step 4, a Gamma process is applied to describe the degradation failure of the aircraft engine, and an aircraft engine reliability evaluation model R based on the performance degradation is establishedg(t) ═ P { w (t) < epsilon }, where t denotes a certain time, Rg(t) represents the reliability at a certain moment, w (t) represents the cumulative amount of degradation of the aircraft engine performance at the moment t, and epsilon represents a threshold value for the specified aircraft engine performance degradation.
6. The method for evaluating the reliability of the aircraft engine aiming at the competitive failure as claimed in claim 1, wherein in the step 5, the Bayesian prior distribution is determined by using the aircraft engine performance degradation evaluation result calculated in the step 4 and the maintenance information, the inspection information and the fault information, and the reliability evaluation is performed on the sudden failure of the aircraft engine by combining the running time information.
7. The aircraft engine reliability evaluation method for the competitive failure according to claim 1, wherein in the step 6, a reliability evaluation model for the competitive failure is established, and the aircraft engine reliability for the competitive failure is calculated using the output results of the steps 5 and 6.
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| CN2011104533162A CN102567639A (en) | 2011-12-30 | 2011-12-30 | Method for evaluating reliability of aircraft engine aiming at competing failure |
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| CN103020438A (en) * | 2012-11-29 | 2013-04-03 | 中国人民解放军军械工程学院 | Aero-engine reliability monitoring method based on mixed weibull distribution |
| CN103218495A (en) * | 2013-04-23 | 2013-07-24 | 北京航空航天大学 | Design method for communication system reliability statistic test scheme on basis of competing failure |
| CN103336901A (en) * | 2013-06-27 | 2013-10-02 | 中国人民解放军国防科学技术大学 | Statistical analysis technique for accelerated life test related to ineffectiveness in competition |
| CN103678858A (en) * | 2012-09-26 | 2014-03-26 | 中国人民解放军第二炮兵工程大学 | Method for predicting remaining life of equipment under competing failure conditions |
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| CN109063345A (en) * | 2018-08-09 | 2018-12-21 | 吉林工程技术师范学院 | Cnc ReliabilityintelligeNetwork Network appraisal procedure based on competing failure |
| CN109145773A (en) * | 2018-08-01 | 2019-01-04 | 谭晓栋 | A kind of failure prediction method of multi-source tendency information fusion |
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| CN116754235A (en) * | 2022-03-04 | 2023-09-15 | 中国人民解放军空军航空大学 | Aeroengine reliability assessment method for competition failure |
| CN116776454A (en) * | 2022-03-04 | 2023-09-19 | 中国人民解放军空军航空大学 | Aeroengine on-wing reliability assessment method based on monitoring information fusion |
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| CN105095990A (en) * | 2015-07-20 | 2015-11-25 | 中国电子科技集团公司第三十六研究所 | Method and device for predicting maintenance |
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| CN105894097B (en) * | 2016-04-25 | 2021-01-15 | 程琳 | Method for predicting maintenance time of aircraft engine in repair shop |
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| CN106777814A (en) * | 2017-01-18 | 2017-05-31 | 电子科技大学 | Method for predicting reliability with faulty physical is updated based on multi-source hierarchical information |
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| CN109145773A (en) * | 2018-08-01 | 2019-01-04 | 谭晓栋 | A kind of failure prediction method of multi-source tendency information fusion |
| CN109063345A (en) * | 2018-08-09 | 2018-12-21 | 吉林工程技术师范学院 | Cnc ReliabilityintelligeNetwork Network appraisal procedure based on competing failure |
| CN109522650A (en) * | 2018-11-16 | 2019-03-26 | 吉林大学 | It is a kind of without burst fail message under electro spindle lifetime estimation method |
| CN109522650B (en) * | 2018-11-16 | 2022-05-10 | 吉林大学 | Method for evaluating service life of electric spindle without sudden failure information |
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