CN102426688A - Security transaction strategy and operation method - Google Patents
Security transaction strategy and operation method Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to relates to a security transaction strategy and operation method. The method is implemented by the following steps: first, capital allocation, which means that a buying proportion is determined according to an equalization strategy of a game theory; second, risk control, which means that corresponded adjustment is carried out on increasement of the controllable number of bought stocks according to a profit and loss situation of personal account stocks and personal account surplus capitals; third, profit management, which means that an operation object that accord with a personal investor profit target is established so as to carry out management; and fourth, strategy management, which means that a profit target that can be operated is established for an individual and is managed in a compound interest increasing mode. According to the invention, an operation prompt is provided with regard to risk and profit phenomena during an investment process of an investor. On the basis of logistics, a game theory, a current security transaction rule and a security basic knowledge, a coping strategy is formulated in advance according to two kinds of changes of a price of a future stock, so that the investor can reasonably control the risk and take profits timely during the operation as well as final profits based on risk control can be realized.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to stock trading method, refer to a kind of security exchange strategy and method of operating that the complete operation strategy makes the user clearly operate that comprise especially.
Background technology
Stock possesses inherent value and external price, and price is around being worth fluctuation up and down, and price drops to and is worth when following, and the margin of safety is just (margin of safety=value-price).Price is low more, and the margin of safety is high more.At this moment, rise in price is big more to the possibility that is worth, and stock also possesses the value of investment more.The drop of price brings the rise of the stock margin of safety and investment value, and price is when being worth, and stock is over-evaluated; Price is when being worth, and stock is underestimated.
In the market of underestimating, the price of most of stocks is lower than value, and the share price upside potential is big, and investment value is high, and the investor benefits mostly.In the market of over-evaluating, the price of most of stocks is higher than value, and the falling stock prices possibility is big, and investment value is low, and the investor is lost mostly.The knowledge of GPRS security circle, the operator should avoid risk to obtain income in theory, yet: because the operator is in practical operation; Do not have the exact information foundation, and have error in judgement sometimes yet, so; Can not always make correct decision; Therefore, need provide a kind of to the operator now, can avoid slipping up and accurately avoid risk and the security exchange strategy and the method for operating that obtain income based on operation scientific principle opinion.
And the situation to the security exchange theory of operation is in the prior art:
1, the whole knowledge hierarchy that instructs investment analysis, no matter rudimentary knowledge, fundamental analysis or technical Analysis, all accurate prediction markets tendency.
2, market possesses uncertainty, and share price possibly go up, and also possibly drop.
3, accurately there is defective in the investment analysis system of prediction markets direction of motion, influences the realization of the investment objective.
Up to now, the security exchange software of applying for a patent to State Intellectual Property Office is concluded nothing more than being two kinds of methods: 1, information data provide 2, the screening of information data.
Market professional software in the investment securities field only provides the extracting of market data and information and some market incremental datas at present; So this type software only belongs to, and information provides and information analysis software; It only is analysis to securities market and stock itself; Identical information is provided can only for different investors, does not make the concrete operations prompting to investor's account situation, the problem that prior art exists does not have specific aim exactly, does not have practical operation property.
Summary of the invention
Just analyze the value that waits to confirm stock for solving present security exchange software through the macroanalysis in the fundamental analysis, technical Analysis, company; Diagnose and advise analyzing the data sink General Logistics Department; But the data that adopted have uncertainty, thereby make final advisory result also have probabilistic problem.The object of the invention be to provide a kind of more targetedly, the security exchange strategy and the method for operating of practical operation property.
The present invention provides a kind of security exchange strategy and method of operating, and following strategy step is specifically arranged:
One, fund allocation confirms to buy in ratio according to game theoretic balance policy;
Two, risk control is done corresponding adjustment according to the profit and loss and the personal account surplus capital of personal account stock to the increase of the controlled quantity of buying in stocks;
Three, Earnings Management is divided into four grades with personal account profit state, and sets up to meet with individual investor's earnings target and manage as operand;
Four, strategy management: for the individual sets up a kind of earnings target that realizes operating and manages with the mode that multiple profit increases.
In step 1, fund allocation in certain fluctuation range of predetermined costs price finally makes integrated cost equal predetermined costs; The first stroke is bought position in storehouse can not be lower than 30%.
In step 1, the drop of stock price brings the rise of the margin of safety and investment value, and the relation of stock value and price has determined the tactful feasibility of holding position at high proportion, and price drops to sizable degree, and position in storehouse can suitably be increased to 60-80%.
In step 3, four, situation 1: if went up with interior share price and to reach 30% in two months, do not do operation, perhaps take to mix the strategy of closing a position; Situation 2:, close a position 50% at least if volatility does not surpass 20% more than three months.
In step 3, four, follow-up variation of original share price and corresponding operating:, rise and to the tactics profit point, all needn't operate if go up; If drop when falling to cost, is sold the half the of institute's holding number.
In step 2, if, when loss appears in book; And let system control, and let loss only become the phenomenon in the investment process, the control (damage money is won thigh) of stock is kept buying and selling the principle of the continuation of operating with enhancing; Mend to put down afterwards earlier; Flat half mends doubly, reaches under the situation that has loss, and investor's loss is less than market ordinary investor's loss.
In step 2; Mixed type wind control strategy; Can to the 12%-16% interval range, progressively close a position at falling stock prices, make the stock total price that flattens equal when falling stock prices 15%, to flatten half the stock total price, bounce-back begins to calculate to fall to 16% position; After promptly falling 16%, share price begins to buy back when rebounding to the 2-6% interval.
In step 1; Position in storehouse configuration mode greater than 50%: the drop of stock price brings the rise of the margin of safety and investment value; The relation of stock value and price has determined the tactful feasibility of holding position at high proportion, and price drops to sizable degree, and position in storehouse can suitably be increased to 60-80%.
In step 1; In certain fluctuation range of predetermined costs price, open a position, finally make integrated cost equal predetermined costs, the first stroke is bought position in storehouse can not be lower than 30%; Big funds are opened a position during chance to less, can reach the purpose of opening a position at the predetermined costs place through enlarging between trading post.
In step 4, mainly be when profit appears in book, reach the interim profit of control by means in order to Bo Li, thus the final strategy profit that realizes.
The present invention is primarily aimed at risk and the profit phenomenon that the investor occurs and makes operation indicating in investment process; Logic-based is learned, game is touched upon existing security exchange rule and security rudimentary knowledge; Countermeasure is formulated in two kinds of variations through to the price of following stock in advance; Be investor's locking profit in time of more reasonably controlling risk in operation, on the basis of controlling risk, realize final profit.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 is the configuration diagram of security exchange strategy of the present invention and method of operating.
Fig. 2 is the synoptic diagram of three kinds of following instep situations of security.
Fig. 3 is for using this patent systems approach investor and the loss of market and profit comparison diagram under the opposing drop situation.
Fig. 4 is radical type comparison example operational flowchart.
Fig. 5 balanced type comparison example is operational flowchart in share price goes up.
Fig. 6 is a balance-type operation strategy wind control operation chart.
Fig. 7 is a balance-type operation strategy wind control operation comparison diagram.
Fig. 8 is sane formula operation strategy wind control operation chart.
Fig. 9 is sane formula operation strategy wind control operation comparison diagram.
Pessimistic operation strategy wind control operation chart is bought in Figure 10 nonstandardized technique.
Pessimistic operation strategy wind control operation comparison diagram is bought in Figure 11 nonstandardized technique.
Radical formula operation strategy wind control operation chart is bought in Figure 12 nonstandardized technique.
Radical formula operation strategy wind control operation comparison diagram is bought in Figure 13 nonstandardized technique.
Embodiment
As shown in Figure 1; A kind of security exchange strategy provided by the present invention and method of operating; Be primarily aimed at risk and the profit phenomenon that the investor occurs and make operation indicating in investment process; Logic-based is learned, game is touched upon existing security exchange rule and security rudimentary knowledge; The countermeasure method is formulated in two kinds of variations through to the price of following stock in advance, makes investor's locking profit in time of can more reasonably controlling risk in operation according to the method for the invention, on the basis of controlling risk, realizes final profit.
Security exchange strategy of the present invention and method of operating, specifically: can provide according to the fund allocation strategy of following introduction and buy in the ratio suggestion; Then, the investor buys in ratio and creates account according to own risk tolerance and autonomous selection of subjective judgement, afterwards, regularly pays close attention to the fluctuation of this stock, if this falling stock price then utilizes the risk control strategy to operate accordingly, with the risk of avoiding; If balloon then utilizes the Earnings Management strategy to operate, to guarantee investor's maximize revenue; And the investor also should be provided with the expectation target in the account fixed time limit, such as, half a year, income 20%, for realizing the target of these settings, also should be adjusted into suitable income pattern with the concrete operations in " fund allocation, risk control, Earnings Management " strategy.
Below implementation step of the present invention is specifically introduced.
At first, the investor selectes stock according to screening system suggestion selection,
And the present invention provides three kinds of methods of selecting stocks;
First kind is to hold the opportunity of buying in investment; Forfeiture when the function of the market; During the i.e. forfeiture of investment and financing function; That is: what show is the investor loss in market 90%, when market stops the distribution, issue of bonds of distribution, the rationed shares of new stock, newly-increased distribution simultaneously, is the opportunity of investment of entering the market.Specifically provide the suggestion of the selected stock of buying in afterwards again.
Second kind is the selected of concrete stock; Select the dividend earning rate radix of the market price of stock corresponding to each year; As long as promptly add optional scope less than 30 years cost-recoverings; Value according to stock is selected stocks, and confirms the investment value of stock through the mode of selecting stock dividends exactly, thereby selects the stock that is fit to investment.
The third is " attacking it must save oneself " strategy.If a stock has a large amount of mechanisms inside, and according to price trend, mechanism be loss, sustain economic losses; And because the fund scale that mechanism is absorbed in is excessive; Whole trading volume is also very low, is not enough to the condition that provides it to come out, and such condition but provides the chance of selecting stocks to the investor.
At this moment, the investor should be that basic condition is got hold of under the situation on the opportunity of entering the market with first kind of mode, selectes concrete stock with the concrete stock that second and third kind mode is selected as buying in range of choice.
Next retell, security operation and tactful application that the present invention is concrete below cooperate instance to carry out bright specifically:
One, fund allocation strategy, under the uncertain situation of investment result, from the angle of risk control, the utilization strategy is managed fund input, is the first step of all investment operation behaviors.Reasonably fund allocation is that we reach one of precondition of earnings target.Just, whether this step configuration is reasonable, with the investment result who directly determines us.
At first, should confirm to buy in ratio according to game theoretic balance policy; Below various investors' the strategy of buying in is carried out class definition,
Radical type: the position in storehouse of opening a position＞50%
Balanced type: the position in storehouse of opening a position=50%
Conservative type: the position in storehouse of opening a position＜50%
Below be the instantiation of balance policy:
Radical type comparison example:
As shown in Figure 4, initial fund: 1,000,000, stock price: 10 yuan, drop into 600,000 Buys in stock first, surplus capital: 400,000; If falling stock prices 10%: account loss: 600,000 * 10,%=6 ten thousand; Drop back surplus capital 400,000 can be controlled interest total price than drop preceding the 400000 total price increase of can controlling interest:
(400,000/9-40 ten thousand/10) * 9=4 ten thousand
Strategy loss value :-6 ten thousand+40,000=-2 ten thousand.
Conclusion: the fund allocation mode of radical type is in a disadvantageous position when share price descends.
Conservative type comparison example:
Initial fund: 1,000,000,10 yuan of stock prices, drop into 400,000 Buys in stock, surplus capital first: 600,000, if share price goes up 10%: account profit: 400,000 * 10,%=4 ten thousand; The 600000 total price minimizings of can controlling interest that the back surplus capital 600,000 that goes up can be controlled interest total price when not going up:
(600,000/10-60 ten thousand/11) * 1,1=6 ten thousand
Strategy loss value: 40,000-60,000=-2 ten thousand.
Balanced type comparison example-falling stock prices
Initial fund: 1,000,000, stock price: 10 yuan, invest 500,000 Buys in stock, surplus capital: 500,000, if falling stock prices 10%: account loss: 500,000 * 10,%=5 ten thousand; The 500000 total price increases of can controlling interest that drop back surplus capital 500,000 can be controlled interest total price when not dropping: (500,000/9-50 ten thousand/10) * 9=5 ten thousand, tactful loss value is-5 ten thousand+50,000=0.
Balanced type comparison example-share price goes up
As shown in Figure 5, initial fund: 1,000,000, stock price: 10 yuan, invest 500,000 Buys in stock, surplus capital: 500,000, if share price goes up 10%:
Account profit: 500,000 * 10,%=5 ten thousand;
The 500000 total price minimizings of can controlling interest that the back surplus capital 500,000 that goes up can be controlled interest total price when not dropping: (500,000/10-50 ten thousand/11) * 1,1=5 ten thousand, tactful loss value is 50,000-50,000=0.
Below be the effect comparison of multiple strategy:
Conclusion: when share price went up, profit appearred in half storehouse fund, can effectively prevent to cross the low revenue opportunities of missing because of position in storehouse; During falling stock prices, whole fund only faces half the temporary deficit, and surplus capital capable of using is supported injecting capital into and cooperated.Operability that this is tactful and wind control ability are strong, the profit and the loss that can effectively liquidate and occur.
Certainly; Except that the fund allocation suggestion of above-mentioned balanced type; This strategy of opening a position more flexibly of opening a position also can be advised mixing in good time by system, such as greater than 50% position in storehouse configuration mode: bring under the situation of rise of the margin of safety and investment value the relation of stock value and price determined to hold position the at high proportion feasibility of strategy in the drop of stock price; Price drops to sizable degree in actual quotation, then can the position in storehouse suggestion suitably be increased to 60-80% according to setting.
In certain fluctuation range of predetermined costs price, open a position; Finally make integrated cost equal predetermined costs; The first stroke is bought position in storehouse can not be lower than 30%, and big funds are opened a position during chance to less, can reach the purpose of opening a position at the predetermined costs place through enlarging between trading post.
Two, risk control strategy; Two big types of investment risks: the present invention can be divided into two types with the investment risk in the actual mechanical process: except price is over-evaluated the risk of bringing, also have the temporary drop of price that the market trading activity causes after reasonable price is bought in stocks.To the different risk type, the different risk countermeasure will be arranged.
Three of investment risk is originated greatly: and the source of risk then can be classified as three types: the undesirable element of Investor's Decision factor, irrational market system and enterprise aspect.
The present invention introduces the Investor's Decision factor; Remedy traditional in the past Stock Investment and ignored the defective of investor self erroneous decision; Realize the most basic breach of risk control thereby find: from investor's interests; Ignore the risk factors that have nothing to do with the investor, be conceived to practical operation, find basic countermeasure.
Specifically be corresponding adjustment to be done in the increase of the controlled quantity of buying in stocks in the inventive method according to the profit and loss and the personal account surplus capital of personal account stock; If, when loss appears in book, and let system control; Let loss only become the phenomenon in the investment process; To strengthen the principle that control to stock (decrease money win strand) keeps the continuation of dealing operation, mends flat partly benefit times put down afterwards earlier; Reach under the situation that has loss, and make the loss of investor's loss less than the market ordinary investor.The present invention is provided with standard to the standard of transaction operation at instep about 15% down, also just falls to 0 maximum dropping space branch to what the future market possibly occur for 6 intervals from the initial valency of concluding the business.Obviously with uncertain market risk delineation, make in the investment process and generate strategy in advance, and control the remunerative price point, thereby make objectively disadvantageous market, but can be inclined to favourable the investor.According to the tactful principle of wind control operation, after the operation of closing a position of wind control, share price certain standard that rebounds must be carried out the variation call operation.We are that radix calculates with the share price minimum point that the operation back of closing a position occurs, and the rise that the bounce-back standard of this variation call is arranged on about 4% is interval.
The variation call transaction is really sent out a reason that is set to about 4% and is:
1, based on the consideration of controlling low price
When share price falls to the certain standard amplitude, then carry out the operation of closing a position of wind control, purpose is to continue the loss that drop brings to the investor in order to reduce stock, also is simultaneously in order to make the investor that sufficient can sharp surplus capital transferring arranged, to control the stock of low price.Since confirm that the stock of buying rate is all valuable first, that value along with the drop stock of price will be high more.Therefore, we price occur readjustment than the low spatial variation call, can reduce cost.
2, based on the consideration of running cost
If this standard was provided with low, though might be more holding tickets, thereby catch the chance of rise; Income is more, but also can make investor's observation space and time all hurry, causes and judges and the decision-making error; Thereby cause the transaction operation frequent, increase unnecessary running cost.
3, the operation that standardized operation setting can the standard investor, thus help the expansion of dominating stragegy.
Standard is set under the operational hypothesis of closing a position between 15% left and right region in the falling stock price standard; Standard is provided with rise about 4% as between the variation call standard regions again; Not only give the bigger observation space of investor in order to perhaps guaranteeing valid function; Take into account strategy simultaneously and go up cost control in the low price zone, more crucial is standardizes investor's operation, has guaranteed its tactful expansion presence of mind, has surely kept the front line.
Native system reacts according to the setting of strategy according to the for example recent market of stock automatically automatically, and at first, carried out concrete definition to three kinds of forms of drop, situation for example shown in Figure 2: drop range reaches 30% in the plummet 3:5 day of trade; 2:22 of the opposing drop day of trade, interior drop range reached 15%; Slowly do not touch the transaction trigger point in the drop 1:1.After carrying out this classification, can control accordingly according to above strategy and logistics principle.The stock of each situation all has corresponding operation strategy.
Below just the native system suggestion for operation is 1,000,000 to be example in initial fund, and volatility 1 is the amount of increase and amount of decrease table of basic cost, and volatility 2 is the amount of increase table based on price after the last time stock price changing.
System strategy of the present invention possesses operation strategy more flexibly, when being drop such as the operation trigger point of setting: interval 12%-16%.Bounce-back: interval 2-6%, in the time of on reaching these operating points, system can point out the investor to buy in accordingly and sell operation, and concrete suggestion for operation is then confirmed according to the former reason of following strategy system.
After risk appears in operation, the some position of a risk control is set, reduce investment risk.The strategy of taking to sell a part of institute share-holding ticket earlier reduces risk; Recommended standard is buying in 50% of quantity for the first time, if because after all selling, in case rise has appearred in stock price; We need buy back from higher price; That just causes the front to sell the actual loss of stock, has raised cost, makes operation not have tactful advantage.And if we do not buy back, price goes up at last, just equals that not only we have lost money in vain, has lost stock, and waste is good gain on investments chance once.So; Our best solution of operation is to sell a part of stock, and when share price becomes rise, we are provided with and increase to the operation that certain standard is bought back; And confirm to buy back the standard of quantity, promptly reach the principle that is lower than the buying price first time on the integrated cost.So just avoided, we sell the situation that share price goes up and causes the rise of cost after we repurchase and miss a gain on investments chance fully behind the stock.And after we confirmed to buy the stock value of price for the first time, drop had appearred again in price, and in principle, this drop is not real risk, but is converted into the possibility of chance, so more should have reason to buy back, so just meets the original intention of our investment decision yet.
As for buying back confirming of quantity, principle at first is will be higher than to sell quantity, and we buy back with the multiple of selling quantity in suggestion, equally also from reduce cost and grasp multimachine more can consideration, otherwise just be not easy to reach the purpose that reduces integrated cost.Under buying rate, fall to 0; Set up separately between the operational zone with 15% width of cloth, it is to utilize its standard as risk control that the interval is provided with benefit, can be on this standard; Formulate the strategy of some favourable our investments, reach the purpose that reduces risk control low-priced stocks poll amount.In the transaction trigger point certain interval operation can be set also, like 12%-16% three intervals be set and make integrated cost reach wind control operation standard, make operation have more practicality simultaneously.
Carry out mixed type risk control strategy this moment; Can to the 12%-16% interval range, progressively close a position at falling stock prices; Make the stock total price that flattens equal when falling stock prices 15%, to flatten half the stock total price; Bounce-back begins to calculate to fall to 16% position, promptly fall 16% after, share price rebounds to 2-6% and begins to buy back when interval.This situation strategy is applicable to big fund account transaction, and system can select to carry out automatically.
Follow-up variation of original share price and corresponding operating:, rise and to the tactics profit point, all needn't operate if go up; If drop when falling to cost, is sold the half the of institute's holding number.After flattening half stock, possibly meet with three kinds of situation: continue to fall to next trigger point; Directly bounce-back; Before falling to next trigger point, begin bounce-back.At this moment, all should refill 2 times that flattened stock quantity last time.
As shown in Figure 3, for using this patent systems approach investor and the loss of market and profit comparison diagram under the opposing drop situation.Control according to above-mentioned strategy, system of the present invention can effectively avoid investor's risk.
Following according to different strategic operation strategies, tool goes out the following concrete case of risk control strategy: investor's capital investment in the following example: 100000 yuan, and selected stock price: 10 yuan/strand
(1) balance-type operation strategy
Drop into 50% fund first, the quantity of buying in stocks: 5000 strands, last fund is 50000 yuan.
Reason: based on state to the market index drop; Confirm to have dropped between the lowest region of investor sentiment expection, what further drop maybe be very little, and the condition of rise is deposited in market again at any time; If the investor was with 10 fens drop standards as market, and existing market has dropped to 100%.Therefore, the scale of selection 50% is bought in.
The drop of opposing type:
Case one:
Falling stock prices is to 85% of buying rate first, i.e. first transaction trigger point; Go up 4% again afterwards---second transaction trigger point.
Wind control operation for the first time:
When falling stock prices to 85% of buying rate first, cause first transaction trigger point, begin to carry out wind control operation; According to equalling the wind control principle of afterwards mending earlier, sell the 50%:5000 ÷ 2=2500 (thigh) of institute's share-holding poll amount, the fund of selling thigh is: 2500 * 8.5=21250 (unit).
Result after the operation of wind control this time: after the transaction operation, it is former number of share of stock amount-sell number of share of stock: the 5000-2500=2500 (thigh) that holds that the investor holds number of share of stock; The surplus capital total value for after buying in first surplus capital+this sells stock gold: 50000+2500 * 8.5=50000+21250=71250 (unit); Controlled number of share of stock amount can be bought stock quantity for the existing amount of holding shares of investor+its surplus capital total value by present price: 2500+71250 ÷ 8.5=2500+8382=10882 (thigh); The book total fund is surplus capital total value+share-holding market value: 71250+2500 * 8.5=71250+21250=92500 (unit), and actual book fund loss is: 92500-100000=-7500 (unit).
Analysis after the operation of wind control this time: for the first time behind the wind control EO, whole account situation does, falling stock prices 15%, and the investment book loss is 7.5%; Controlled several 10882 strands of stock is bought securities with all one's capital on year-on-year basis and can only buy 10000 strands for the first time, has increased by 882 strands.
Wind control operation for the second time:
After the operation, 4% rise appears in share price for the first time, and second transaction trigger point produces.The investor promptly buys in the twice that stock quantity is sold in wind control operation for the first time: 2500 * 2=5000 (thigh), and the fund of buying thigh is: 5000 * 8.84=44200 (unit).
Result after the operation of wind control this time: after the transaction operation, it is 2500+2500 * 2=2500+5000=7500 (thigh) that the investor holds number of share of stock; The surplus capital total value is the fund that thigh is bought in surplus capital-this operation of operation last time: 71250-44200=27050 (unit); Controlled number of share of stock amount can be bought stock quantity for the existing amount of holding shares of investor+its surplus capital total value by present price: 7500+27050 ÷ 8.84=7500+3060=10560 (thigh); The book total fund adds share-holding market value: 27050+7500 * 8.84=27050+66300=93350 (unit) for the surplus capital total value, and actual book fund loss is: 93350-100000=-6650 (unit).
Analysis after the operation of wind control this time: for the first time behind the wind control EO, whole account situation does, falling stock prices-11.6%, and the investment book loss is 6.65%; Controlled several 10560 strands of stock is bought securities with all one's capital on year-on-year basis and can only buy 10000 strands for the first time, has increased by 560 strands.
The profit operation strategy is seen in the transaction operation that this strand of ★ continues to go up later.
Wind control operation chart as shown in Figure 6 and wind control shown in Figure 7 operation comparison diagram
Wind control operation detail list
(2) sane formula operation strategy:
Drop into 40% fund first, buy in a moon stock quantity: 4000 strands, last fund is 60000 yuan.
Reason:, possibly also have further drop, and there is the condition that goes up at any time in market simultaneously based on the state of market index drop being not sure of the zone very rationally that drops to the investor sentiment expection; If the investor was with 10 fens drop standards as market, and existing market has dropped to 80%, but can't affirm that it is minimum price,, promptly select 40% scale to buy in so, suitably reduced 10% than the balance-type operation strategy.
The drop of opposing type:
Case one:
Falling stock prices is to 85% of buying rate first, i.e. first transaction trigger point; Go up 4% again afterwards---second transaction trigger point.
Wind control operation for the first time:
When falling stock prices to 85% of buying rate first, cause first transaction trigger point, begin to carry out wind control operation; According to equalling the wind control principle of afterwards mending earlier, sell the 50%:4000 ÷ 2=2000 (thigh) of institute's share-holding poll amount, the fund of selling thigh is: 2000 * 8.5=17000 (unit).
Result after the operation of wind control this time: after the transaction operation, it is former number of share of stock amount-sell number of share of stock: the 4000-2000=2000 (thigh) that holds that the investor holds number of share of stock; The surplus capital total value for after buying in first surplus capital+this sells stock gold: 60000+2000 * 8.5=60000+17000=77000 (unit); Controlled number of share of stock amount can be bought stock quantity for the existing amount of holding shares of investor+its surplus capital total value by present price: 2000+77000 ÷ 8.5=2000+9059=11059 (thigh); The book total fund is surplus capital total value+share-holding market value: 77000+2000 * 8.5=77000+17000=94000 (unit), and actual book fund loss is: 94000-100000=-6000 (unit).
Analysis after the operation of wind control this time: for the first time behind the wind control EO, whole account situation does, falling stock prices 15%, and the investment book loss is 6%; Controlled several 11059 strands of stock is bought securities with all one's capital on year-on-year basis and can only buy 10000 strands for the first time, has increased by 1059 strands.
Wind control operation for the second time:
After the operation, 4% rise appears in share price for the first time, and second transaction trigger point produces.The investor promptly buys in the twice that stock quantity is sold in wind control operation for the first time: 2000 * 2=4000 (thigh), and the fund of buying thigh is: 4000 * 8.84=35360 (unit).
Result after the operation of wind control this time: after the transaction operation, it is 2000+4000=6000 (thigh) that the investor holds number of share of stock; The surplus capital total value is the fund that thigh is bought in surplus capital-this operation of operation last time: 77000-35360=41640 (unit); Controlled number of share of stock amount can be bought stock quantity 6000+41640 ÷ 8.84=6000+4710=10710 (thigh) for the existing amount of holding shares of investor+its surplus capital total value by present price; The book total fund adds share-holding market value: 41460+6000 * 8.84=41460+53540=94500 (unit) for the surplus capital total value, and actual book fund loss is 94500-100000=-5500 (unit).
Analysis after the operation of wind control this time: for the first time behind the wind control EO, whole account situation does, falling stock prices-11.6%, and the investment book loss is-5.5%; Controlled several 10710 strands of stock is bought securities with all one's capital on year-on-year basis and can only buy 10000 strands for the first time, has increased by 710 strands.
The profit operation strategy is seen in the transaction operation that this strand of ★ continues to go up later.
Wind control operation chart as shown in Figure 8
Wind control operation comparison diagram as shown in Figure 9
Wind control operation detail list
Nonstandardized technique is bought in
(1) pessimistic operation strategy
Dropping into 30% first buys in stocks with the fund down to 1%.
Buy in stocks with 30% the fund of dropping into first and to be example.Buying price: 10 yuan/strand, buy in quantity: 3000 strands, 70000 yuan of transaction back surplus capital total values
Reason:
Drop to the reasonable interval that the investor thinks based on the state of market index drop is not sure of, possibly also have further drop, and there is the condition that goes up at any time in market simultaneously, so select 30% scale to buy in.If the investor with 10 be divided into market the drop standard, existing market has dropped to about 50%, but can't confirm that whole drop scale is present twice, therefore takes the pessimistic operation strategy to buy in.Be appreciated that also this mode is that a kind of radical formula is bought in, because also do not drop to investment psychology the most reasonably during price in price, the investor has been unable to suppress the phychology of buying in and has bought in by force.
The drop of opposing type:
Case one:
Falling stock prices first buying rate 15%, promptly first the transaction trigger point; Go up 4% again afterwards---second transaction trigger point.
Wind control operation for the first time:
When falling stock prices first buying rate 15%, cause first transaction trigger point, begin to carry out wind control operation; According to equalling the wind control principle of afterwards mending earlier, sell the 50%:3000 ÷ 2=1500 (thigh) of institute's share-holding poll amount, the fund of selling thigh is: 1500 * 8.5=12750 (unit).
Result after the operation of wind control this time: after the transaction operation, it is former number of share of stock amount-sell number of share of stock: the 3000-1500=1500 (thigh) that holds that the investor holds number of share of stock; The surplus capital total value for after buying in first surplus capital+this sells stock gold: 70000+1500 * 8.5=70000+12750=82750 (unit); Controlled number of share of stock amount can be bought stock quantity for the existing amount of holding shares of investor+its surplus capital total value by present price: 1500+82750 ÷ 8.5=1500+9735=11235 (thigh); The book total fund is surplus capital total value+share-holding market value: 82750+1500 * 8.5=82750+12750=95500 (unit), and actual book fund loss is: 95500-100000=-4500 (unit).
Analysis after the operation of wind control this time: for the first time behind the wind control EO, whole account situation does, falling stock prices 15%, and the investment book loss is 4.5%; Controlled several 11235 strands of stock is bought securities with all one's capital on year-on-year basis and can only buy 10000 strands for the first time, has increased by 1235 strands.
Wind control operation for the second time:
After the operation, 4% rise appears in share price for the first time, and second transaction trigger point produces.The investor promptly buys in the twice that stock quantity is sold in wind control operation for the first time: 1500 * 2=3000 (thigh), and the fund of buying thigh is: 3000 * 8.84=26520 (unit).
Result after the operation of wind control this time: after the transaction operation, it is 1500+3000=4500 (thigh) that the investor holds number of share of stock; The surplus capital total value is the fund that thigh is bought in surplus capital-this operation of operation last time: 82750-26520=56230 (unit); Controlled number of share of stock amount can be bought stock quantity for the existing amount of holding shares of investor+its surplus capital total value by present price: 4500+56230 ÷ 8.84=4500+6361=10860 (thigh); The book total fund adds share-holding market value: 56230+4500 * 8.84=56230+39780=96010 (unit) for the surplus capital total value, and actual book fund loss is: 96010-100000=-3990 (unit).
Analysis after the operation of wind control this time: for the first time behind the wind control EO, whole account situation does, falling stock prices 11.6%, and the investment book loss is 3.99%; Controlled several 10860 strands of stock is bought securities with all one's capital on year-on-year basis and can only buy 10000 strands for the first time, has increased by 860 strands.
The profit operation strategy is seen in the transaction operation that this strand of ★ continues to go up later.
Wind control operation chart shown in figure 10
Wind control operation comparison diagram shown in figure 11
Wind control operation detail list
Nonstandardized technique is bought in
(2) radical formula operation strategy:
Drop into more than 60% first, 100% the fund of being up to buys in stocks.
Buy in stocks for example with 60% the fund of dropping into first.Buying price: 10 yuan/strand, buy in quantity: 6000 strands
Reason: based on state to the market index drop; Confirm to have dropped between the lowest region that exceeds the investor sentiment expection; Further drop maybe be very little; The condition that exist to go up again at any time in market, if the investor with 10 fens drop standards as market, existing market has dropped to more than 110% of investor sentiment expection.Therefore, the scale of selection 60% is bought in.
The drop of opposing type:
Case one:
Falling stock prices is to 85% of buying rate first, i.e. first transaction trigger point; Go up 4% again afterwards---second transaction trigger point.
Wind control operation for the first time:
When falling stock prices to 85% of buying rate first, cause first transaction trigger point, begin to carry out wind control operation; According to equalling the wind control principle of afterwards mending earlier, sell the 50%:6000 ÷ 2=3000 (thigh) of institute's share-holding poll amount, the fund of selling thigh is: 3000 * 8.5=25500 (unit).Result after the operation of wind control this time: after the transaction operation, it is former number of share of stock amount-sell number of share of stock: the 6000-3000=1200 (thigh) that holds that the investor holds number of share of stock; The surplus capital total value for after buying in first surplus capital+this sells stock gold: 40000+3000 * 8.5=40000+25500=65500 (unit); Controlled number of share of stock amount can be bought stock quantity for the existing amount of holding shares of investor+its surplus capital total value by present price: 3000+65500 ÷ 8.5=3000+7706=10706 (thigh); The book total fund is surplus capital total value+share-holding market value: 65500+3000 * 8.5=65500+25500=91000 (unit), and actual book fund loss is: 91000-100000=-9000 (unit).
Analysis after the operation of wind control this time: behind the wind control EO, whole account situation is that falling stock prices 15%, investor's book loss are 9% for the first time; Controlled several 10706 strands of stock is bought securities with all one's capital on year-on-year basis and can only buy 10000 strands for the first time, has increased by 706 strands.
Wind control operation for the second time:
After the operation, 4% rise appears in share price for the first time, and second transaction trigger point produces.The investor promptly buys in the twice that stock quantity is sold in wind control operation for the first time: 3000 * 2=6000 (thigh), and the fund of buying thigh is: 6000 * 8.84=53040 (unit).
Result after the operation of wind control this time: after the transaction operation, it is 3000+3000 * 2=3000+6000=9000 (thigh) that the investor holds number of share of stock; The surplus capital total value is the fund that thigh is bought in surplus capital-this operation of operation last time: 65500-53040=12460 (unit); Controlled number of share of stock amount can be bought stock quantity for the existing amount of holding shares of investor+its surplus capital total value by present price: 9000+12460 ÷ 8.84=9000+1410=10410 (thigh); The book total fund adds share-holding market value: 12460+9000 * 8.84=12460+79560=92020 (unit) for the surplus capital total value, and actual book fund loss is: 92020-100000=-7980 (unit).
Analysis after the operation of wind control this time: for the first time behind the wind control EO, whole account situation does, falling stock prices-11.6%, and the investment book loss is-7.98%; Controlled several 10410 strands of stock is bought securities with all one's capital on year-on-year basis and can only buy 10000 strands for the first time, has increased by 410 strands.
The profit operation strategy is seen in the transaction operation that this strand of ★ continues to go up later.
Wind control operation chart shown in figure 12
Wind control operation comparison diagram shown in figure 13:
Wind control operation detail list
Three, Earnings Management is set up to meet with individual investor's earnings target and is managed as operand;
Below with concrete example, the concrete application of Earnings Management strategy among the present invention is described:
On the tactful basis of capital management; The investor is in Earnings Management; Part profit to have occurred on the account is support; Carry out follow-uply increasing the storehouse operation for what reach whole profit re-set target, promptly with the precondition of part profit, follow-up possible the risk of buying fund that liquidates, realize bigger whole strategy pattern of getting a profit.
Under normal circumstances, if the investor opens a position according to reasonable standard, going up promptly appears in the back share price of opening a position, and only once increases the storehouse operation in principle, and increases the storehouse standard in 20% of overall fund.Why increase the storehouse standard and be no more than 20%, reason is to be; My Earnings Management principle is in order to rich sharp strategy; If adding the storehouse ratio that heightens, we will obviously raise our integrated cost; Cause us to tail off by the margin of profitableness of book; The risk ability of bearing price drops significantly reduces, simultaneously also because the reduction of Risk Tolerance causes operational passive.So suggestion increases the storehouse standard and preferably is no more than 20%.Remaining fund can be in operation separately like tangible investment opportunity as monetary holding.We had both guaranteed that our most fund when chance occurs, had all continued investment like this, had also guaranteed the dirigibility of use of funds.
Remaining fund can be in operation separately like tangible investment opportunity as monetary holding.We had both guaranteed that our most fund when chance occurs, had all continued investment like this, had also guaranteed the dirigibility of use of funds.
At this stock is under the weak tendency situation
Case 1-1
For the first time: the fund of buying in is 20% of an initial fund, i.e. 100000 * 20%=20000 unit; The 20000 ÷ 11=1900 thighs of buying in stocks; Actual use fund 1900 * 11=20900 is first; Account total charge=fund account the amount of money+stock account the amount of money=29100+6900 * 11=29100+75900=105000 unit; Book profit 105000-100000=5000 unit, 5000 ÷ 100000=5%; Share-holding is bought average price=(5000 * 10+1900 * 11) ÷ 6900=10.28 unit;
For the second time: overall profitability reaches 15%, and the account total charge should be 100000 * 115%=115000 unit; Retrodicting, stock account amount of money this moment=115000-29100=85900 is first, share price=85900 ÷ 6900=12.45 unit; At this moment; Sell 70% of institute's share-holding ticket; Sell 6900 * 70%=4830 thigh, the residue number of share of stock=6900 * 30%=2070 thigh is sold stock gained fund=4930 * 12.45=60134 unit; The fund account amount of money=29100+60134=89234 unit, the stock account amount of money=2070 * 12.45=25772 unit; Actual profit=(12.45-10.28) * 4830=10481 unit, 10481 ÷ 100000=10.48%;
For the third time: overall profitability reaches 20%, and the account total charge should be 100000 * 120%=120000 unit; Retrodicting, stock account amount of money this moment=120000-89234=30766 is first, share price=30766 ÷ 2070=14.86 unit; At this moment, sell whole stocks; Book profit=reality is got a profit=20000 yuan.
Annotate: promptly adjust back when share price increases to 14.86, suggestion the investor adjusted back 13.07 o'clock in share price, and the price place when promptly profit is operated for the third time among the case 1-1 closes a position.
At this stock is under the concussion situation
For the first time: the fund of buying in is 20% of an initial fund, i.e. 100000 * 20%=20000 unit; The 20000 ÷ 11=1900 thighs of buying in stocks; Actual use fund 1900 * 11=20900 is first; Account total charge=fund account the amount of money+stock account the amount of money=29100+6900 * 11=29100+75900=105000 unit; Book profit 105000-100000=5000 unit, 5000 ÷ 100000=5%; Share-holding is bought average price=(5000 * 10+1900 * 11) ÷ 6900=10.28 unit;
For the second time: share price goes up, even but do not rise to the 12.5-overall profitability and reach just readjustment of 15% price, fall and be back to 11 yuan, do not do operation this moment.
For the third time: falling stock prices to 10.28, sell part stock, make that remaining the stock total price this moment is the half the of initial fund; Residue number of share of stock=50000 ÷ 10.28=4870 thighs are sold a burst gained fund=(6900-4870) * 10.28=20868.4 unit, surplus capital total value=29100+20868.4=49968.4 unit; Initial fund is calculated and is revert to the equalization operation point basically, after this, if price drops; Then press wind control operation, rise in price is then by Earnings Management.
Four, strategy management: for the individual sets up a kind of earnings target that realizes operating and manages with the mode that multiple profit increases.Mainly be when profit appears in book, reach the interim profit of control by means in order to Bo Li, thus the final strategy profit that realizes.
Two operation strategies are nested against one another describes together for this.
The strategy of system definition profit: long-term earnings target, the basis of compound growth advises being annual 20%, and the tactics that define in system profit: near indicative of strategy profit, as 15%.Need launch the local profit of strategy when reaching the tactics profit point: from the distant small size profit of strategic earnings target.
Equally, when the rise situation, three kinds of forms that system has defined equally, straight rise: amount of increase reaches 30% in 5 day of trade; Concussion goes up: amount of increase reaches 15% in 22 day of trade; Slowly go up: do not touch the transaction trigger point in 1 year, so that system triggers automatically and operates accordingly.
Below with the concrete operations instance operation strategy of native system is described.
The operation strategy case of single stock
Follow-up variation and corresponding operating:, rise and to the tactics profit point, all needn't operate if go up; If drop falls to the integrated cost place, sell and hold 10% or 20% of stock quantity.
The calculating of integrated cost: initially hold position 50%, hold 50,000 strands in stock, 500,000 yuan of costs.After the rise in price 10%, increase the storehouse with 100,000, new Buy in stock 100,000/11=9000 thigh, ten thousand yuan of cost 9000*11=9.9 always hold 5.9 ten thousand strands of number of share of stocks, total cost 500,000+9.9 ten thousand=59.9 ten thousand, integrated cost is 59.9 ten thousand/5.9 ten thousand=10.15 yuan.Initial fund 1,000,000,10 yuan of share prices drop into 50% Buy in stock.Rise in price 10% begins to increase the storehouse, and new infusion of financial resources is 10% or 20% of initial fund.
Operation strategy-the case of many stocks
Initial fund 1,000,000,10 yuan of share prices drop into 50% Buy in stock.During rise in price 10%, will be left fund and move to other stock, the strategy of a beginning new round launches.
Follow-up variation of original share price and corresponding operating:, rise and to the tactics profit point, all needn't operate if go up; If drop when falling to cost, is sold the half the of institute's holding number.
Operation when realizing the tactics profit
When reaching tactics earnings target (overall profitability 15%): situation 1: if went up with interior share price and to reach 30% in two months, operation can be advised not doing by system, perhaps takes to mix the strategy of closing a position; Situation 2: if volatility does not surpass 20% more than three months, system can advise closing a position 50% at least.
Operation when realizing the strategy profit
All sell, realize strategic earnings target.Perhaps: part is sold, but sells half at least.After this, price whenever falls 10%, increases storehouse 20%.
Be primarily aimed at risk and the profit phenomenon that the investor occurs and make operation indicating in investment process; Countermeasure is formulated in two kinds of variations through to the price of following stock in advance; Be investor's locking profit in time of more reasonably controlling risk in operation, on the basis of controlling risk, realize final profit.
Systems approach of the present invention is reached and is realized annual strategic earnings target (20%) and finally can realize compound growth, and such as the result: behind the n, rate of return on investment is 1.2n
For example, drop into 1,000,000 this year, average annual return rate will realize after 20%, 30 year: 1,000,000 * 1.230=2.37 hundred million.
Just analyze the value that waits to confirm stock according to present security exchange software through the macroanalysis in the fundamental analysis, technical Analysis, company; Diagnose and advise analyzing the data sink General Logistics Department; But the data that adopted have uncertainty, thereby make final advisory result also have probabilistic problem.
The present invention is primarily aimed at risk and the profit phenomenon that the investor occurs and makes operation indicating in investment process; Countermeasure is formulated in two kinds of variations through to the price of following stock in advance; Be investor's locking profit in time of more reasonably controlling risk in operation, on the basis of controlling risk, realize final profit.
Only the above person is merely preferred embodiment of the present invention, when not limiting practical range of the present invention with this; So, allly change and modify according to claim of the present invention and the simple equivalent done of creation description, all should still belong in the scope that patent of the present invention contains.
Claims (10)
1. security exchange strategy and method of operating is characterized in that,
Fund allocation strategy according to following introduction provides the ratio of buying in suggestion; Then, the investor creates account according to own risk tolerance and the autonomous ratio of buying in of selecting of subjective judgement, afterwards, regularly pays close attention to the fluctuation of this stock, if this falling stock price then can utilize the risk control strategy to operate accordingly, with the risk of avoiding; If balloon then can utilize the Earnings Management strategy to operate, to guarantee investor's maximize revenue; And the investor also should be provided with the expectation target in the account fixed time limit, for realizing the target of these settings, also should be adjusted into suitable income pattern with the concrete operations in " fund allocation, risk control, Earnings Management " strategy;
Following strategy is specifically arranged:
One, fund allocation confirms to buy in ratio according to game theoretic balance policy;
Two, risk control is done corresponding adjustment according to the profit and loss and the personal account surplus capital of personal account stock to the increase of the controlled quantity of buying in stocks;
Three, Earnings Management is set up to meet with individual investor's earnings target and is managed as operand;
Four, strategy management: for the individual sets up a kind of earnings target that realizes operating and manages with the mode that multiple profit increases.
2. security exchange strategy as claimed in claim 1 and method of operating is characterized in that, in strategy one, fund allocation in certain fluctuation range of predetermined costs price finally makes integrated cost equal predetermined costs; The first stroke is bought position in storehouse can not be lower than 30%.
3. security exchange strategy as claimed in claim 1 and method of operating; It is characterized in that, in strategy one, within a certain period of time; The drop of stock price brings the rise of the margin of safety and investment value; The relation of stock value and price has determined the tactful feasibility of holding position at high proportion, and price drops to sizable degree, and position in storehouse can suitably be increased to 60-80%.
4. security exchange strategy as claimed in claim 1 and method of operating is characterized in that, in strategy three, four, and situation 1: if went up with interior share price and to reach 30% in two months, do not do operation, perhaps take to mix the strategy of closing a position; Situation 2:, close a position 50% at least if volatility does not surpass 20% more than three months.
5. security exchange strategy as claimed in claim 1 and method of operating is characterized in that, in strategy three, four, and follow-up variation of original share price and corresponding operating:, rise and to the tactics profit point, all needn't operate if go up; If drop when falling to cost, is sold the half the of institute's holding number.
6. security exchange strategy as claimed in claim 1 and method of operating is characterized in that, in strategy two; If, when loss appears in book, and let system control; Letting lose only becomes the phenomenon in the investment process, with enhancing the principle of the continuation of operation is bought and sold in control (decrease money and the win thigh) maintenance of stock, mends to put down afterwards earlier; Flat half mends doubly, reaches under the situation that has loss, and investor's loss is less than market ordinary investor's loss.
7. security exchange strategy as claimed in claim 1 and method of operating is characterized in that, in strategy two; Mixed type wind control strategy; Can to the 12%-16% interval range, progressively close a position at falling stock prices, make the stock total price that flattens equal when falling stock prices 15%, to flatten half the stock total price, bounce-back begins to calculate to fall to 16% position; After promptly falling 16%, share price begins to buy back when rebounding to the 2-6% interval.
8. security exchange strategy as claimed in claim 1 and method of operating; It is characterized in that; In strategy one, the position in storehouse configuration mode greater than 50%: the drop of stock price brings the rise of the margin of safety and investment value, and the relation of stock value and price has determined the tactful feasibility of holding position at high proportion; Price drops to sizable degree, and position in storehouse can suitably be increased to 60-80%.
9. security exchange strategy as claimed in claim 1 and method of operating; It is characterized in that, in strategy one, in certain fluctuation range of predetermined costs price, open a position; Finally make integrated cost equal predetermined costs; The first stroke is bought position in storehouse can not be lower than 30%, and big funds are opened a position during chance to less, can reach the purpose of opening a position at the predetermined costs place through enlarging between trading post.
10. security exchange strategy as claimed in claim 1 and method of operating is characterized in that, in strategy four, mainly are when profit appears in book, reach the interim profit of control by the means in order to Bo Li, thus the final strategy profit that realizes.
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Cited By (5)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN106355498A (en) * | 2016-09-27 | 2017-01-25 | 上海红宋网络科技有限公司 | Stock trading management system |
| CN106373011A (en) * | 2016-08-31 | 2017-02-01 | 苗青 | Navigation type intelligent investment adviser auxiliary decision system |
| CN107451876A (en) * | 2016-05-31 | 2017-12-08 | 北京京东尚科信息技术有限公司 | For quantifying the method and electronic equipment of transaction |
| CN108257005A (en) * | 2017-12-28 | 2018-07-06 | 深圳市牛鼎丰科技有限公司 | Resource allocation methods, device, computer equipment and storage medium |
| CN110503557A (en) * | 2019-08-28 | 2019-11-26 | 中国银行股份有限公司 | The monitoring method and device of policy information |
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2011
- 2011-10-17 CN CN2011103141188A patent/CN102426688A/en active Pending
Cited By (5)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN107451876A (en) * | 2016-05-31 | 2017-12-08 | 北京京东尚科信息技术有限公司 | For quantifying the method and electronic equipment of transaction |
| CN106373011A (en) * | 2016-08-31 | 2017-02-01 | 苗青 | Navigation type intelligent investment adviser auxiliary decision system |
| CN106355498A (en) * | 2016-09-27 | 2017-01-25 | 上海红宋网络科技有限公司 | Stock trading management system |
| CN108257005A (en) * | 2017-12-28 | 2018-07-06 | 深圳市牛鼎丰科技有限公司 | Resource allocation methods, device, computer equipment and storage medium |
| CN110503557A (en) * | 2019-08-28 | 2019-11-26 | 中国银行股份有限公司 | The monitoring method and device of policy information |
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