CN102364508A - Method for evaluating river basin accumulation environment risks - Google Patents
Method for evaluating river basin accumulation environment risks Download PDFInfo
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- CN102364508A CN102364508A CN2011101941776A CN201110194177A CN102364508A CN 102364508 A CN102364508 A CN 102364508A CN 2011101941776 A CN2011101941776 A CN 2011101941776A CN 201110194177 A CN201110194177 A CN 201110194177A CN 102364508 A CN102364508 A CN 102364508A
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Abstract
Aiming at the characteristics of various risk sources, upstream and downstream accumulation, complex and multiple risk receptors and the like of river basin environment risks, the invention discloses a method for evaluating river basin accumulation environment risks on the basis of GIS (Geographic Information System) technology effective insertion components. The method comprises the following steps of: firstly, with a chemical engineering park along the river within a river basin range as an environment risk evaluation point source, quantifying environment risk source dangers through relevant quantitative models such as a fire model (Exergy); secondly, establishing a GIS space accumulation model, coupling a river basin dispersion one-dimensional water quality mode, calculating a river basin environment risk accumulation field, acting the river basin environment risk accumulation field on a service range of a water taking hole through the water taking hole; thirdly, evaluating the vulnerability of an environment acceptor along the river; and finally, determining the level of the region risks through risk strengths and operation results of acceptor vulnerability evaluation levels, and generating a river basin environment risk ranking graph on the basis of a space display function of a GIS. The method can be widely applied to regional environment risk evaluation, regional industry layout plan, soil utilization plan, environment risk management, and formulation of pollution accident prevention measures and emergence plans, and has the characteristics of high efficiency, low cost, high precision, wide appliance range and the like.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to environmental science, environmental risk and management domain, relate in particular to a kind of GIS of utilization and Excel technology, the method for comprehensive evaluation basin accumulation environmental risk.This evaluation method can be widely used in the formulation of regional industrial allocation plan, land use planning and environmental risk management and contamination accident preventive measure and emergency preplan.
Background technology
Along with China's industrialization degree and scale constantly enlarge, the industry development of regional scale has become the economic new growth point of China.This zonal development model of China is usually with industry, and especially industry is taken in chemical industry as the leading factor, is carrier with economic and technological development zone or industrial park.Yet in the process that process of industrialization advances rapidly, the discharging of a large amount of hazardous contaminants has caused huge harm to the health and the ecologic environment of depending on for existence thereof.Especially in recent years the contamination accident that happens suddenly takes place frequently, and is threatening stable with the economic sound development of society.In addition, owing to the facility of resource, traffic etc., it is riverine, regional along the river that China's chemical industry mostly concentrates on.Can know from the statistics of State Environmental Protection Administration in 2005: 21000 chemical enterprises in the whole nation, all be distributed in the Changjiang river, two sides, the Yellow River more than 50%, in a single day enterprise has an accident, consequence hardly imaginable (Pan Yue, 2006).China's valley environment risk highlights day by day.It is various that the valley environment risk has the risk source, and space distribution complicacy and environmental risk receive characteristics such as upstream and downstream transmission cumulative effect, and therefore, an importance of valley environment risk assessment is to accumulate environmental risk assessment.The purpose of basin accumulation environmental risk assessment is exactly in the whole basin of A+E in, environmental risk in the upstream and downstream transmission course to the influence of ecologic environment and mankind's activity, thereby be that the adjustment of regional industrial layout, firm location, the source monitoring of emphasis risk etc. provide scientific basis.
At present, the research of state's exterior domain accumulation ring border risk mainly concentrates in the influence of toxic compounds to public health, and has formulated the health risk accumulation and estimated guide rule (EPA, 1997).In addition, the foreign scholar mostly concentrates on analysis catastrophic failure risk aspect to the research of regional environment risk, especially maximization work area concrete environment risk source and contamination accident inducement thereof is analyzed.Kuijen (1987) has accomplished and may be the danger identification in island petrochemical complex district to the river mouth, and the technological prevention measure is improved, and makes environmental pollution accident risks descend 20 times; The World Bank (1985) to the intensive Tianjin of Dutch petrochemical complex through alliance's moral area utilization some qualitatively, expert's experience judges and comes the identified region environmental risk; And effective accident-prevention measures have been proposed; Petts (1997) discusses the method for the large scale manufacturing district risk assessment of knowing clearly; Dobbins (2003) etc. are research object with section, Mississippi downstream; Set up the regional environment vulnerability database through technology such as location, monitoring, simulations, according to this as the basic data of regional environment venture analysis, for the macro risks management of governmental environmental provides scientific basis; Ghonemy and Watts (2005) have done further research to the uncertainty in the regional environment risk; Through match and folded figure are carried out in danger accumulation or dangerous distribution plan, thereby obtain regional environment risk aggregative index, Arunraj and Maiti (2009) are example with manufacturing district, Indian east; The risk model that makes up R=H * V is analyzed unexpected environmental accident risk consequence, and proposes the regional environment risk assessment conceptual framework based on consequences analysis; At home; Bi Jun (1994) application " risk frequency " and index of correlation are analyzed the spatial and temporal pattern of areas of Shenyang past 30 years environmental risks; Yang Xiaosong (2000) etc. has provided the principle of regional environment Risk Calculation and general computing method; Mainly contain analysis, statistical analysis method, formula evaluation assessment, mathematics method, figure Superposition Method etc.; Hu Erbang (2000) has proposed to comprise the risk evaluation system that harm identification, accident frequency and consequence estimation, Risk Calculation and risk are slowed down four-stage; The regional environment risk analysis model of aspects such as Shi Jianrong (2005) has derived that a cover dangerous matter sources is differentiated, the characteristic isoconcentration line is confirmed, accident characteristic harm district and critical days estimation; The loyalty of standing in great numbers (2005) etc. has been set up a kind of evaluation model based on reliability theory and has been come zoning environmental quality risk, and this theory is fine the idea that regional environment is regarded as a total system, has considered influencing each other between the various factors; And the interaction between each influence factor and the pollutant; Utilize " pressure～intensity～inefficacy " relation of pollutant and environment to come evaluation region environmental quality risk, it is theoretical that Yang Jie (2006) has proposed the regional environment risk system, points out and should confirm assessment indicator system according to the characteristic of risk system; On basis to each single-factor rank scores; Through direct stack or weighted stacking the regional environment risk is estimated, Xu Linyu (2007) combines gridding method and diffusion of information method, through environmental risk value in the risk information matrix computations zone; Qu Changsheng etc. (2010) have made up the regional environment risk System of Comprehensive Evaluation of being made up of dangerous index and two big types of indexs of fragility index, introduce sequential weighted mean operator (TOWA) the regional environment risk is estimated.
In recent years; Along with reaching its maturity of environmental risk system theory and computer technology; The data processing that Excel is powerful, function of statistic analysis; And the ability of the input of GIS technical data, storage, management, spatial analysis and demonstration; For the analysis of regional environment risk system element characteristic, the structure of environmental risk assessment model, the computing of environmental risk and result's space expression provide strong support; Regional environment risk investigation based on GIS and Excel technology can carry out analysis-by-synthesis to the environment risk source in the large scale scope, social economy, ecologic environment etc.; Can specialize research to problems such as environmental risk multi-source, many dangerous substances, risk superposition, risk acceptor complicacy in the regional extent, the unit that makes environmental risk assessment is from administrative cell translation to geographical unit, thus the space differentiation rule of more complete understanding environmental risk key element; Be the emphasis control of regional environment risk, the concentrated improvement of pollutant and instruct the regional industrial development plan and formulate environmental protection plans important evidence is provided.
Fedra etc. (1996) have GIS to combine to have developed the macroscopic view planning that is used for the zone based on the risk information system of graphical interfaces with analogy model; Lawrence etc. (1997) are used for land use planning with the risk exposure model; Adopt GIS and analogy model to expand the predictive ability of risk model in zone and planning aspect; Kuchuk etc. (1998) use European environment and healthy GIS-Geographic Information System shows the type and the trend of the population health that exposes, and according to this population health risk have been carried out sorting out on the space and dividing, and are used to instruct and healthy relevant decision-making; Anil (2002) is through the analysis to natural risk and industrial system interaction potential for adverse effects; It is particularly important for regional risk management to propose the manufacturing district addressing, under ArcGIS supports, has designed regional environment risk drafting method; In China, on the basis of Yang Jie etc. (2006) to a plurality of risk factors analysis-by-synthesis in zone and evaluation, obtain regional environment risk aggregative index; Establishment regional environment risk distribution figure, Xu Linyu (2007) is based on the function of ArcGIS network analysis, and the exploit information diffusion method has been carried out environmental risk assessment to industry park, Nansha, Guangzhou; And according to the risk size; Obtain the environmental risk block plan, be used to instruct the environmental risk management of industry park, Lan Dongdong etc. (2009) are on the basis of constructing environment risk subregion index system; The environmental risk quantitative model is proposed; And be example with the Shanghai City Minhang District, this zone is divided into high, medium and low, low four risk area, for department of local government optimizing industry layout, formulate risk-aversion and the contingency management measure provides foundation.
At present, more existing patents of invention of environmental risk assessment correlative study.Like application number is 200810143693.4, and name is called a kind of modified fault tree analysis process that is used for environmental risk assessment, and publication number is the patent of invention of CN101477643; It will be provided with the method for degree of membership and introduce fault tree analysis process, and adopt weighting to ask average method, carry out environmental risk assessment; Overcome the defective of " either-or " that exist when the former fault tree analysis process of utilization carries out environmental risk assessment; More effectively bring into play the effect of environmental risk assessment to environmental risk prediction, accident prevention, and for example application number is 200710168376.3, and name is called waterborne traffic risk assessment and the Forecasting Methodology based on GIS-Geographic Information System; Publication number is CN101344937; It through making up waters accident risk assessment and forecast model, embodies the geographic distribution of waters risk based on GIS-Geographic Information System intuitively; Avoid superficialization of quilitative method evaluation to a certain extent, had the characteristics of gridding, mobilism.
From above these researchs, can find out; The regional environment Study on Risk Assessment has obtained certain achievement at home and abroad; The existing both at home and abroad case that is applied to zone or planning of city industrial pattern or environmental risk management, research show, utilizes technology such as GIS to regional environment risk assessment data processing and spatial analysis; Can realize the efficient overall treatment of environmental risk spatial information and attribute information, improve the speed and the precision of environmental risk analysis and evaluation.
The basin belongs to the category in zone; Valley environment risk most important character is that current are main risk transmission medium; The valley environment risk will take into full account the characteristic of upstream and downstream environmental risk accumulation; But carry out to these characteristics at present that accumulation environmental risk in basin is estimated and the research of spatialization is weak, along with the outburst of great water pollution accidents such as Song Hua River contamination accident, a small bay in a river river contamination accident, northern river contamination accident, and the continuous enhancing of people's ecological environmental protection consciousness; The early warning of basin contamination accident has become pressing for of current social stable development with emergent, impels the method for basin accumulation environmental risk assessment to demand urgently ripe and perfect.Therefore; The method of a kind of basin of exploitation accumulation environmental risk assessment on the basis of existing regional environment risk assessment achievement, and make it efficient, economical, the early warning management emergent and risk that is widely used in the basin contamination accident has very realistic meanings.
Summary of the invention
The present invention is directed to valley environment accident risk source, the various complicacy of risk acceptor; The synergistic effect in a plurality of risks source; Interaction between the risk acceptor; And the harm that produces is difficult to characteristics such as prediction, provides an a kind of basin of effectively inserting unit based on GIS technology accumulation point to accumulate the environment risk evaluating method.This method comprises following several steps: at first,,, with (Exergy), environment risk source danger is quantized like fire through relevant quantitative model as the environmental risk assessment point source with riverine chemical industry garden in the basin perimeter; Then, set up GIS spatial summation model, and the one dimension water quality model of the basin water quality diffusion that is coupled, the field acts on intake through intake service range is accumulated with the basin risk in calculating watershed environmental risk accumulation field; Fragility to riverine environment acceptor is estimated; Pass through the operation result of risk intensity and acceptor fragility opinion rating at last; Establish regional risk height; Based on the space Presentation Function of GIS, generate valley environment risk stratification figure, realize the evaluation and the spatialization of basin accumulation environmental risk; Has the valley environment of taking into full account risk special heterogeneity, to basin environmental risk assessment science, characteristics such as comprehensive, applied widely.
The invention is characterized in the space coupling and the cumulative function of utilization GIS technical Analysis basin yardstick upstream and downstream risk, act on regional space through intake, the size of clear and definite regional environment risk realizes the accumulation evaluation of valley environment risk.
The object of the present invention is to provide a kind of basin comprehensively comprehensive, scientifical, applied widely, strong operability to accumulate the environment risk evaluating method, to solve the deficiency of existing evaluation method, compare with existing evaluation method, patent of the present invention has the following advantages:
(1) comprehensive and comprehensive to the basin environmental risk assessment: the present invention is according to typical environmental risk system; Analyze the space differentiation rule of environment risk source in the basin perimeter, accumulation environmental risk field and environmental risk acceptor; Select the rational evaluation model; The basin environmental risk is accumulated through effectively inserting unit, realized comprehensively and the comprehensively evaluation of valley environment risk.
(2) applied widely: the present invention is applicable to any valley environment risk assessment.
(3) science: the present invention is based on the GIS technology platform; Through one-dimensional stable River Mixing attenuation model a plurality of risk point sources in the basin perimeter are interacted; Realize different risks source value-at-risk in the stack in basin accumulation, get the value-at-risk that the mean value of risk section comes certain section river in the representative basin.Realize the scientific evaluation of basin accumulation environmental risk.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 is basin accumulation environmental risk assessment technology path figure;
Fig. 2 is valley environment risk accumulation computation process synoptic diagram;
Fig. 3 is valley environment risk stratification figure.
Embodiment
Below detailed explanation principle of work of the present invention and embodiment:
At first basin yardstick environmental risk system is carried out certain simplification and hypothesis: the environmental risk of riverine (river) chemical industrial park is only considered in (1) risk source, and only considers that leakage, non-normal emission etc. produce the accident pattern of main influence to the basin water body; (2) do not consider moving source accident in the river transportation; (3) except that natural ecosystems are exerted an influence, environmental accident produces venture influence through intake and the zone of irrigating flowing through, as does not have riverine (river) intake, then thinks not produce risk; (4) on this yardstick of basin, riverine (river) chemical industry garden is abstract to be a risk source point, the environmental accident risk be the point source risk.
With reference to one-dimensional stable River Mixing attenuation model, calculate point-like risk source risk accumulated value, and then the mean value of getting the risk section is represented the value-at-risk of this section.Calculation level mainly comprises riverine chemical industrial park point, river joint and for reducing error at the cut point than the increase of long river section, thereby reduces the error of calculation, when calculation level is abundant, and can be to the full extent near actual value.Equally, the some value-at-risk in downstream is adding up of upstream risk value during calculating.
Certain nature position, basin is with favourable conditions, and the density of population is high, and social economy is very flourishing, and should zone chemical industry petrochemical industry already take industry as the leading factor, and in the basin perimeter gather in the chemical industry garden, the mostly riverine distribution of water head site and intake, and the valley environment risk is very severe.Characteristics according to the valley environment risk system; The constructing environment Risk Assessment Index System is on the dangerous basis that quantizes to chemical industry garden environmental risk, based on GIS calculating watershed accumulation environmental risk field; According to environmental risk assessment index grade scale; As shown in table 1, calculating watershed environmental risk value also obtains this valley environment risk stratification figure, shown in accompanying drawing 3.
This basin is in four zones that have of high risk area, and major risk factors is risk accumulation source, and there are five zones in the high risk district; Leading factor is risk accumulation source, middle risk area four zones are arranged, leading factor is risk accumulation source; Three zones that have than the low-risk district; Principal element is that acceptor is responsive, and there are six zones in the low-risk district, and leading factor is that acceptor is responsive.
Certain basin accumulation environmental risk assessment index classification of table 1
Claims (1)
1. the method for basin accumulation environmental risk assessment is characterized in that: through analysis to basin environmental risk system characteristic, and the constructing environment Risk Assessment Index System; On basis to risk source hazard assessment; Set up GIS spatial summation model, and the one dimension water quality model of coupling basin water quality diffusion, calculating watershed environmental risk accumulation field; Basin risk accumulation field is acted on the regional space scope through intake; At last through the operation result of risk intensity and acceptor fragility opinion rating, establish regional risk just after, based on the space Presentation Function of GIS; Generate valley environment risk stratification figure, realize the evaluation and the spatialization of basin accumulation environmental risk.
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Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN108491403A (en) * | 2018-01-19 | 2018-09-04 | 梅州市城市规划设计院 | A kind of site selecting method of the Construction of The Mountainous Region land used based on ArcGIS |
| CN114819773A (en) * | 2022-06-29 | 2022-07-29 | 天津大学 | Enterprise green production management and control method and system based on big data |
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- 2011-07-12 CN CN2011101941776A patent/CN102364508A/en active Pending
Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN108491403A (en) * | 2018-01-19 | 2018-09-04 | 梅州市城市规划设计院 | A kind of site selecting method of the Construction of The Mountainous Region land used based on ArcGIS |
| CN114819773A (en) * | 2022-06-29 | 2022-07-29 | 天津大学 | Enterprise green production management and control method and system based on big data |
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Application publication date: 20120229 |