CN102347635B - Refined monitoring system for power supply reliability - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses a refined monitoring system for power supply reliability, comprising an index monitoring module, an index processing module, an index comparing module and an index sensitivity analyzing and predicting module, wherein the index monitoring module monitors indexes; the index processing module processes all types of indexes; the index comparing module performs longitudinal comparison and transverse comparison on the indexes; and the index sensitivity analyzing and predicting module performs sensitivity analysis according to the longitudinal comparison diagram of the indexes. The refined monitoring system for power supply reliability can realize layered monitoring of data, real-time data acquisition and a thorough concrete evaluation mode.

Description

A kind of power supply reliability supervisory control system that becomes more meticulous

Technical field

The present invention relates to for electrical domain, relate in particular to a kind of power supply reliability supervisory control system that becomes more meticulous.

Background technology

Raising along with quality of life, country is also more and more higher for the reliability requirement of power supply, through the collection of data, thinking becomes more meticulous current power supply reliability monitoring is main exists 3 deficiencies: lack comprehensive data, lack automatic statistics and analysis data, lack comprehensive evaluation method.Therefore, it is upper that present inventor's emphasis concentrates on improving one's methods of these 3 deficiencies, accomplishes monitor data stratification, data acquisition real time implementation, specific and comprehensiveization of evaluation method.

Summary of the invention

The object of the invention is to overcome the defect of prior art and a kind of power supply reliability supervisory control system that becomes more meticulous is provided, it can realize monitor data stratification, data acquisition real time implementation, specific and comprehensiveization of evaluation method.

The technical scheme that realizes above-mentioned purpose is: a kind of power supply reliability supervisory control system that becomes more meticulous, and wherein, this supervisory control system comprises index monitoring module, index processing module, index contrast module and index sensitivity analysis and prediction module, wherein:

Described index monitoring module index is monitored;

Described index processing module is processed various types of indexs;

Described index contrast module comprises index is vertically contrasted and across comparison, described vertical contrast is by for the on-line monitoring index, make that the index control chart realizes, described across comparison refers to the desired value sequence that the main duty of the difference of same index people is corresponding, computation of mean values is using it as benchmark, if index belongs in setting range, also using it as the datum line of reaching the standard grade, on same axle according to main duty people difference, do block diagram, and identify datum line or the datum line of reaching the standard grade, so that each main duty people can see its horizontal status;

Described index sensitivity analysis and prediction module, according to vertical comparison diagram of index, is carried out sensitivity analysis.

The above-mentioned power supply reliability supervisory control system that becomes more meticulous, wherein, described index comprises non-weighting class index and weighting class index, wherein, the rate index that non-weighting class index comprises the absolute type index and consists of molecule/denominator.

The above-mentioned power supply reliability supervisory control system that becomes more meticulous, wherein, described absolute type index includes time type, anomalous event frequency, scalar type, and described rate index comprises target rate index, the target of 0 type the become rate index of zone of reasonableness of the rate index of 1 type and target that becomes that becomes.

The invention has the beneficial effects as follows: the present invention carries out to index the monitoring that reliability becomes more meticulous by different functional modules, it has set up the key index online monitoring system, provide the evaluation method of power supply reliability, by whole process supervision, systematization evaluation, the information-based integrated monitoring level that improves reliability of reliability.

Embodiment

Below will come for an embodiment that the present invention is further illustrated.

A kind of power supply reliability of the present invention supervisory control system that becomes more meticulous, comprise index monitoring module, index processing module, index contrast module and index sensitivity analysis and prediction module, wherein:

Index monitoring module index is monitored;

The index processing module is processed various types of indexs;

Index contrast module comprises index is vertically contrasted and across comparison, described vertical contrast is by for the on-line monitoring index, make that the index control chart realizes, described across comparison refers to the desired value sequence that the main duty of the difference of same index people is corresponding, computation of mean values is using it as benchmark, if index belongs in setting range, also using it as the datum line of reaching the standard grade, on same axle according to main duty people difference, do block diagram, and identify datum line or the datum line of reaching the standard grade, so that each main duty people can see its horizontal status;

Index sensitivity analysis and prediction module, according to vertical comparison diagram of index, is carried out sensitivity analysis.

In the present invention, index comprises non-weighting class index and weighting class index, wherein, the rate index that non-weighting class index comprises the absolute type index and consists of molecule/denominator, the absolute type index includes time type, anomalous event frequency, scalar type, and described rate index comprises target rate index, the target of 0 type the become rate index of zone of reasonableness of the rate index of 1 type and target that becomes that becomes.

Below will be described further modules.

The index processing module is processed various types of indexs, and polytype index is arranged in index system, and the processing of dissimilar desired value has specific method separately, and all indexs are divided into to Weighted Guidelines in the present invention and non-Weighted Guidelines two classes are processed.

(1) processing of non-weighting class index:

Index system has 56 non-Weighted Guidelines, comprises 29 rate indexs and 27 absolute indexs, and they roughly can be divided three classes: the smaller the better type index, the type that is the bigger the better index, type index in the reasonable scope.

For the smaller the better index.Such as abnormal fortune side rate, invalid interruption duration etc., the processing formula of index is:

(formula 1), min x in formula _ifor the minimum value in scope of statistics.

For the index be the bigger the better.Such as cable rate, the average connectivity number of circuit etc., the processing formula of index is:

(formula 2), max x in formula _ifor the maximum in scope of statistics.

For index that should be in zone of reasonableness, amount etc. during such as charging construction rate, execution outside the plan, the processing formula of index is:

${x^{\&prime;}}_k=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}\frac{M_k-M_{k1}}{U_1-M_{k1}}& (M_{k1}<M_k<U_1)\\ 1& U_1\&le;M_k\&le;U_2\\ \frac{M_{k2}-M_k}{M_{k2}-U_2}& U_2<M_k<M_{k2}\end{array}\right.$ (formula 3)

In formula, [U1, U2] is the zone of reasonableness of index, M _k1and M _k2for theoretic minimum and maximum.

(2) processing of weighting class index

In index system, there are 16 indexs self to there is no specific formula for calculation, need to be obtained by subordinate's index weighted calculation.Such as mains supply ability, equipment operation management ability etc., the processing formula of index is:

$x_i^{\&prime;}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{m}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}{w}_i{x}_i$ (formula 4)

X in formula _ifor the subordinate's desired value after processing, w _ifor the weight of subordinate's index, w _i>=0 (i=1,2,3 ... m), and

Index for after processing, also need to be estimated, and evaluation method is as follows: evaluation result will compare by desired value and standard value.

(1), for the index be the bigger the better, when desired value is more than or equal to standard value, can think that this index has reached the reliability standard requirement.Desired value is more lower than standard value, means that this area for improvement is more.

(2), for the smaller the better index, when desired value is less than standard value, can think that this index has reached the reliability standard requirement.Index is more higher than standard value, means that area for improvement is more.

(3) for index that should be in zone of reasonableness, when desired value belongs to reasonable interval, can think that this index has reached the reliability standard requirement.Index is more apart from reasonable interval, means that area for improvement is more.

(4), for subordinate's weighted calculation index, when calculating desired value after processing by index and being more than or equal to standard value, can think that this index has reached the reliability standard requirement.Desired value is more lower than standard value, means that this area for improvement is more.

Index monitoring module index is monitored, wherein:

The become rate index of 0 type of target.Directly " record " that cause molecule event writing system monitored, for example " repetition outage rate ", as long as molecule occurs once, molecule is greater than 0, system proposes to report to the police.The relevant people of being responsible for " repetition outage rate " draws attention, and to the next stage of this index, looks for reason: industry expands and electricity power engineering is misfitted; Foundry/electricity power engineering is misfitted; Electricity power engineering is misfitted.According to the next stage reason, find corresponding director to draw attention.

The become rate index of 1 type of target.Require " record " of index of correlation director for all event writing systems that form denominator, for example " defect elimination completion rate ", " remote control implementation rate ", " engineering zero-fault transfer rate ", and " record " completed according to standard marked, if there is the record that there is no mark, system was reported to the police over certain time limit.

Target is tending towards the rate index of zone of reasonableness.Require dynamically recording molecule, denominator, and the parameter true value, true value surpasses the zone of reasonableness of setting, and system is reported to the police for the first time; If index surpasses the tolerance interval of setting, system is reported to the police for the second time.

In the absolute type index:

Time type.The time type index all requires minimum best, for example permitted hours.The time that each event is occurred is dynamically included " record " of system in, and " standard max " of setting-up time and " the basic upper limit ", if the time of certain event surpasses " standard max ", system is by automatic marking; If surpass " the basic upper limit ", system will be reported to the police, and require to analyze bad point.

The anomalous event frequency.Target is made as " 0 ", as long as the abnormal event, system is reported to the police, and requires the responsible person concerned to analyze reason.

Scalar type.For example, amount, actual figure outside the plan etc. when average radius of electricity supply, execution outside the plan." zone of reasonableness " is set as standard, if go beyond the scope, system marks and reports to the police.

Index contrast module comprises index vertically contrasted and across comparison,

1, index vertically contrasts

(1) rate index

For the index of 0 type that becomes and the index of 1 type that becomes, directly adopt P figure to be controlled.P figure is the control chart of fraction defective in control chart, and the mean value that can accumulate the P of certain hour comes centering control line and upper and lower control line, and its relevant formula is shown in following formula:

$\mathrm{CL}=\stackrel{\&OverBar;}{P}$

$\mathrm{U\; C\; L}=\stackrel{\&OverBar;}{P}+3\sqrt{\frac{\stackrel{\&OverBar;}{P}(1-\stackrel{\&OverBar;}{P})}{n}}$

$\mathrm{L\; C\; L}=\stackrel{\&OverBar;}{P}-3\sqrt{\frac{\stackrel{\&OverBar;}{P}(1-\stackrel{\&OverBar;}{P})}{n}}$

According to the tendency in P figure, for 0 type index and the 1 type index that becomes of becoming, tendency is better more downwards, impels center line namely value can descend gradually.The upper control line that touches or surpass when this tendency, or have continuously 7 or be greater than the ascendant trend of 7, with regard to explanation rate index, in corresponding flow process, go wrong, need to be adjusted in time.

For the rate index of zone of reasonableness type, upper control line and lower control line can be determined according to zone of reasonableness, can draw equally control chart and carry out trend analysis.

(2) absolute type index

Time type or scalar type can be collected continuous basic data, determine the bound of control chart according to these basic datas.Then draw I-MR figure, according to the index trend analysis.

2, index across comparison

But the main duty of the difference of same index people associated transverse relatively, the desired value that the main duty of the difference of same index people is corresponding sorts, computation of mean values is using it as benchmark, if index has " reasonably scope " also using it as the datum line of reaching the standard grade, according to main duty people difference, do block diagram, and identify datum line or the datum line of reaching the standard grade on same axle, each main duty people can see its horizontal status like this, supervises it to improve self work.

Index sensitivity analysis and prediction module, according to vertical comparison diagram of index, can carry out sensitivity analysis.

For example, certain index is a1 and a2 in the value of two different times, and the reliability of corresponding these two different times is b1 and b2, and reliability is C to the sensitivity of this index so:

C＝((b2-b1)/b1)/((a2-a1)/a1)

Simultaneously, can probably predict the change degree of reliability according to the absolute type index: suppose that this index rate of change is d, the possible rate of change of reliability is C * d so.

Below the present invention is had been described in detail, those skilled in the art can make the many variations example to the present invention according to the above description in conjunction with the embodiments.Thereby some details in embodiment should not form limitation of the invention, the present invention will be usingd scope that appended claims defines as protection scope of the present invention.

Claims (1)

1. the power supply reliability supervisory control system that becomes more meticulous, is characterized in that, this supervisory control system comprises index monitoring module, index processing module, index contrast module and index sensitivity analysis and prediction module, wherein:

Described index monitoring module is monitored index;

Described index processing module is processed various types of indexs;

Described index contrast module comprises index is vertically contrasted and across comparison, described vertical contrast is by for the on-line monitoring index, make that the index control chart realizes, described across comparison refers to: first method, the desired value that the main duty of the difference of same index people is corresponding sorts, and computation of mean values is using it as benchmark; Second method, if index belongs in setting range, also using this index as the datum line of reaching the standard grade, on same axle according to main duty people difference, do block diagram by index, and identify datum line or the datum line of reaching the standard grade by first method or second method, so that each main duty people can see its horizontal status;

Described index sensitivity analysis and prediction module, according to vertical comparison diagram of index, is carried out sensitivity analysis,

Described index comprises non-weighting class index and weighting class index, wherein, and the rate index that non-weighting class index comprises the absolute type index and consists of molecule/denominator,

(1) processing of non-weighting class index:

Index system has 56 non-Weighted Guidelines, is divided three classes: the smaller the better type index, and the type that is the bigger the better index, type index in the reasonable scope,

For the smaller the better type index, the index x in scope of statistics _ithe processing formula of ＇ is:

Formula 1:

minx in formula _ifor the minimum value in scope of statistics;

For the type index that is the bigger the better, the index x in scope of statistics _ithe processing formula of ＇ is:

Formula 2:

maxx in formula _ifor the maximum in scope of statistics,

For type index in zone of reasonableness, index x that should be in zone of reasonableness _kthe processing formula of ＇ is:

Formula 3: ${x^{\&prime;}}_k=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}\frac{M_k-M_{k1}}{U_1-M_{k1}}& (M_{k1}<M_k<U_1)\\ 1& U_1\&le;M_K\&le;U_2\\ \frac{M_{k2}-M_k}{M_{k2}-U_2}& U_2<M_k<M_{k2}\end{array}\right.$

In formula, [U1, U2] is the zone of reasonableness of index, M _k1and M _k2for theoretic minimum and maximum;

(2) processing of weighting class index:

The processing formula of index is:

Formula 4: $x_i^{\&prime;}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{m}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}{w}_i{x}_i$

X in formula _i' be the subordinate's desired value after processing, w _ifor the weight of subordinate's index, w _i>=0(i=1,2,3 ... m), and $\underset{i=1}{\overset{m}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}{w}_i=1,$

The index monitoring module is monitored index, and this monitor control index comprises: the become rate index of 0 type of target; The become rate index of 1 type of target; Target is tending towards the rate index of zone of reasonableness.