CN102184329A - Deformation prediction method for slope three-dimensional entity - Google Patents

Abstract

The application of the method relates to the field of exploitation of the open pit mine and side slope engineering management and the like. With the integration of the research result on single model prediction, the research result on combined model prediction, and the research result on overall deformation prediction of a side slope monitoring line, a deformation predication method for the side slope three-dimensional entity is provided; the deformation predication method skillfully combines a static modeling method with a dynamic method, thus solving the difficulty in the overall prediction of the slope three-dimensional entity; with the deformation prediction method for the slope three-dimensional entity, the deformation condition of the side slope in long time can be predicted; simultaneously, a gray system model and a time sequence ARMA (Autoregressive moving average model) are adopted in predication, a precise predication result is obtained; and the comprehensive research on the long-time deformation predication of the side slope three-dimensional entity refers to the comprehensive application of four methods such as the deformation predication, the long-time predication, the single model predictionand the rolling combination predication of the side slope three-dimensional entity, the predicting outcomes has very high reliability.

Description

A kind of side slope 3D solid Deformation Prediction method

Technical field

This method relates to the Geotechnical Engineering field, relates in particular to opencast mining, slope project improvement field, is specifically related to the prediction principle and the method for side slope unit entity distortion.

Background technology

At present, the Forecasting Methodology of side slope entity distortion has been had a variety of, but these methods mostly belong to the two-dimensional prediction method, can not be fully and reflect intuitively and the distortion situation of side slope 3D solid can't provide reliable foundation for the improvement of open-pit slope.

Long term monitoring to open-pit slope can make bargh accumulate a large amount of slope displacement historical records, thereby the database of an abundance is provided for the research of side slope entity 3 D deformation Forecasting Methodology.

Summary of the invention

The objective of the invention is to work out a kind of practical and satisfy the side slope 3D solid Deformation Prediction method that realistic accuracy requires, TERM DEFORMATION situation to open-pit slope is predicted, help bargh unit to grasp the overall development trend of open-pit slope on the whole, thereby design effective more economically opencast mining scheme, guarantee related work personnel's safety.

In order to achieve the above object, the invention provides a kind of Forecasting Methodology of side slope 3D solid distortion.The prediction principle of this method is as follows:

1) with cubic surface the historical displacement record in monitoring point is carried out match, obtain the mathematical model of model deformation value sometime.Suppose to have on the side slope m monitoring point, each monitoring point observation n cycle, then t cycle side slope 3D solid deformation surface function z (t) (x _i, y _i) be

$z\left(t\right)(x_i,y_i)=a_{\mathrm{<figure-callout\; id="0"\; label="t"\; filenames="HSA00000492901300012.png"\; state="\{\{state\}\}">t</figure-callout>}0}+a_{t1}{x}_i+a_{t2}{y}_i+a_{t3}{x}_i^2+a_{t4}{x}_i{y}_i+a_{t5}{y}_i^2+a_{t6}{x}_i^3+a_{t7}{x}_i^2{y}_i+a_{t8}{x}_i{y}_i^2+a_{t9}{y}_i^3$

Comprise 10 undetermined parameters in the cubic surface, the time series set that therefore can establish k model parameter is

M _k＝{a _1k，a _2k，…，a _nk}；k＝0，1，2，...，9

Can obtain gathering model parameter arrangement set of equal value and be with surface model

M＝{M ₀，M ₁，M ₂，…，M ₉}

Obtain after each undetermined parameter value according to historical displacement record, just can predict the distortion of side slope 3D solid.The Deformation Prediction value of expecting certain point on the side slope can calculate by the method for surface interpolation.For example, the deformation simulative value in i point t cycle on the side slope

Or predicted value is

$\hat{z}\left(t\right)(x_i,y_i)={\hat{a}}_{\mathrm{<figure-callout\; id="0"\; label="t"\; filenames="HSA00000492901300012.png"\; state="\{\{state\}\}">t</figure-callout>}0}+{\hat{a}}_{t1}{x}_i+{\hat{a}}_{t2}{y}_i+{\hat{a}}_{t3}{x}_i^2+{\hat{a}}_{t4}{x}_i{y}_i+{\hat{a}}_{t5}{y}_i^2+{\hat{a}}_{t6}{x}_i^3+{\hat{a}}_{t7}{x}_i^2{y}_i+{\hat{a}}_{t8}{x}_i{y}_i^2+a_{t9}{y}_i^3$

In the formula

Be a _T0, a _T1..., a _T9Valuation or predicted value.N is for participating in the distortion sequence length of modeling, when t＞n,

Being predicted value, is the modeling value when t≤n, (x _i, y _i) be the i point coordinate.

The concrete steps of Forecasting Methodology comprise:

1) side slope 3D solid distorted pattern argument sequence calculates.According to the historical displacement monitoring data of side slope, with cubic surface match slope monitoring point deformation value, adopt least square method that model parameter is carried out valuation, obtain the function parameter sequence of fitting surface.

2) to side slope three-dimensional entity model argument sequence M _kPredict.Each model has 10 parameters, so model set comprises 10 argument sequences.To model parameter sequence M _k, use the best dimension gray model dynamic modeling method originally research and propose and arma modeling predicted method to the model parameter combination long-term forecasting of rolling.

3) side slope 3D solid distortion long-term forecasting.According to the surface model parameter that prediction obtains, surface model is carried out interpolation calculation, thereby obtain the interior Deformation Prediction value of any arbitrarily of deformed region scope.

Description of drawings

Fig. 1 is in November, 2006 a slope deforming observed reading and predicted value comparison diagram;

A slope deforming measured value isoline; B slope deforming predicted value isoline;

Fig. 2 is in July, 2007 a side slope 3D solid Deformation Prediction value and the isoline of measured value contrast;

A Prediction of Horizontal Displacement value isoline; B horizontal shift measured value isoline;

Fig. 3 is in July, 2011 a side slope 3D solid Prediction of Horizontal Displacement value isoline;

Fig. 4 is in July, 2012 a side slope 3D solid Prediction of Horizontal Displacement value isoline.

Embodiment

The specific implementation method of this method can be described as follows with example in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

Surface mine west group and north group profile monitoring line have 13, and the monitoring point, hazardous location has 51, and year July in April, 2005 to 2008 is totally 40 phase observation datas.As time goes on, wherein the part monitoring point owing to distortion reason such as bigger is destroyed.According to the needs of slope treatment engineering, carry out the short-term forecasting and the long-term forecasting of the distortion of side slope 3D solid respectively.

It is as follows to carry out 3D solid distortion short-term forecasting detailed step:

1) the model parameter sequence is calculated.According to 40 phase horizontal displacement monitoring data, with cubic surface match slope monitoring point deformation value, adopt least square method that model parameter is carried out valuation, the result is as shown in table 1, and data volume is only listed the function parameter of the fitting surface in two cycles greatly.

Table 1 fitting surface model parameter

2) to model parameter sequence M _kPredict.Each model has 10 parameters, so model set comprises 10 argument sequences.According to the model parameter sequence, adopt the arma modeling dynamic modeling method of originally researching and proposing that model parameter is predicted based on the minimum principle of residual error variance.The model parameter predicted value sees Table 2, only lists two periodic surface model parameter predicted values as space is limited.

Table 2 model parameter predicted value

3) side slope 3D solid Deformation Prediction.According to the model parameter that prediction obtains, surface model is carried out interpolation calculation, thereby obtain the interior Deformation Prediction value of any arbitrarily of deformed region scope.With in November, 2006 each monitoring point Deformation Prediction value be calculated as example, result of calculation sees Table 3, the Deformation Prediction value relatively in error be ± 3.01%.Side slope 3D solid Deformation Prediction value and measured value contrast, as shown in Figures 1 and 2.

Table 3 slope monitoring point deformation predicted value

Table 3 slope monitoring point deformation predicted value (continuous table)

Profit uses the same method, and also the horizontal shift of side slope three-dimensional entity model is changed and has carried out long-term forecasting, predicts the outcome as shown in Figures 3 and 4.Results of prediction and calculation shows, adopts the 3D solid Deformation Prediction method of originally researching and proposing, and can reach the whole prediction of side slope 3D solid purpose.This method is that static modeling combines cleverly with dynamic modeling, has solved the difficult point of the whole prediction of side slope 3D solid.The prediction practice shows that quadric surface does not have the cubic surface fitting effect good, so the cubic fit curved surface is adopted in this research.The contrast of deformation observation value and predicted value isoline shows among Fig. 1, the bulk deformation predicted value has higher precision and reliability, can express side slope 3 D deformation future trends, can provide the complete following information of slope deforming aspect slope treatment and the preventing land slide for ore deposit side.Compare with single-point Deformation Prediction method with monitoring line bulk deformation predicted method, in method with improve a lot in theory; Be used in combination with monitoring line Deformation Prediction, single-point Deformation Prediction, combined prediction, can a detailed accurate cognition be arranged from local deformation to bulk deformation trend, brought into play good effect in the slope treatment of ore deposit in the open open-pit slope.

Claims (5)

1. side slope 3D solid Deformation Prediction method adopts cubic surface that side slope deformation history record is carried out match, and with suitable accuracy assessment method the precision of fitting result is estimated, and its key step comprises:

S1 calculates side slope three-dimensional entity model argument sequence;

S2 predicts side slope three-dimensional entity model argument sequence;

S3 is to side slope 3D solid distortion carrying out long-term forecasting.

2. the method for claim 1 is characterized in that:

Among the step S1, the calculating of side slope three-dimensional entity model argument sequence employing cubic surface is carried out match to the historical record of slope deforming, with least square method model parameter is carried out valuation.

3. the method for claim 1 is characterized in that:

Among the step S2, use best dimension gray model dynamic modeling method and arma modeling predicted method to the model parameter combination long-term forecasting of rolling.

4. the method for claim 1 is characterized in that:

Among the step S3, the surface model argument sequence that arrives according to prediction, surface model is carried out interpolation calculation, thereby obtain the interior Deformation Prediction value of any arbitrarily of deformed region scope, thereby carry out the side slope 3D solid Deformation Prediction in early stage and later stage and carry out error analysis predicting the outcome early stage.

5. the evaluation method of precision of forecasting model is mainly by the check of residual error size, degree of association check and three kinds of methods of posteriority difference check.But the method for error goes to evaluate precision in then adopting relatively for the check of model sequence.

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