CN102156930A - Regional water security evaluation method based on mutation characteristics of water resource supply and demand process - Google Patents
Regional water security evaluation method based on mutation characteristics of water resource supply and demand process Download PDFInfo
- Publication number
- CN102156930A CN102156930A CN2011101224970A CN201110122497A CN102156930A CN 102156930 A CN102156930 A CN 102156930A CN 2011101224970 A CN2011101224970 A CN 2011101224970A CN 201110122497 A CN201110122497 A CN 201110122497A CN 102156930 A CN102156930 A CN 102156930A
- Authority
- CN
- China
- Prior art keywords
- water
- security
- water resource
- safety
- evaluation
- Prior art date
- Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
- Pending
Links
Landscapes
- Management, Administration, Business Operations System, And Electronic Commerce (AREA)
Abstract
The invention discloses a regional water security evaluation method, comprising the following steps of: dividing water security into an entity subsystem and an associated subsystem according to an entity-association concept through the mutation characteristics of water resource supply and demand system; establishing an index system involved in social and economic development, external environment change and water resource development and utilization by combining with a cardinal rule of water security evaluation, wherein the index system comprises external environment security, water resources system security, water resources-economic security, water resources-environment security, and water resources-social security and other factors, and the index system comprehensively reflects the general characteristics of water security. Finally, a water security evaluation model based on a mutation theory is built aiming at the mutation characteristics of water resource supply and demand system, and the water security evaluation model is used for evaluating the security condition of regional water. The regional water security evaluation method based on mutation characteristics of water resource supply and demand process has the advantages that the evaluation results are comprehensive and accurate, the reliability is high, the water security conditions of different control models can be effectively evaluated, and a basis can be provided to the management of water resource.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to water resources and management domain, specifically a kind of regional water safety evaluation method based on water resource supply and demand process sudden change feature.
Background technology
1972, French scientist raney Tom (Rene Thom) was illustrated catastrophe theory (Catastrophe Theory) clearly in its achievement in research " structural stability and morphogenesis ".After development, become a new branch of mathematics gradually, be specifically designed to discontinuous variation of research and jumping phenomenon, become one and describe the most important theories how a series of successional quantitative changes develop into the great-jump-forward qualitative change, be described as " infinitesimal analysis after mathematical revolution ", with dissipative structure theory, synergism nominal for newly proving for the third time.Catastrophe theory is based upon on topological dynamics and the theory of singularities basis, the background knowledge that relates to mathematics is darker, but through graceful (Zeeman), A Ernuote together (V. I Arnold) etc. people's research, make its application model simple relatively, therefore the utilization field is wide, the many aspects that relate to natural science and social science have obtained the extensive application achievement.In the water resource field, catastrophe theory has been widely applied in each link of construction, design, management, and contains a plurality of fields such as surface water, underground water.
Process shows as multi-modal, kick, feature such as disperses in the water resource supply and demand system, and promptly in the ordinary course of things, along with the variation of state variable, safe or unsafe situation may appear in system at any time, shows two kinds of distinct states; Simultaneously may be in very short time, a very big change may take place in water resource supply and demand system; In addition, in water resource supply and demand system, the limited variation of controlled variable numerical value causes the faint variation of state variable equilibrium position numerical value.But near water security sudden change critical point, the subtle change of controlled variable initial value but may cause the great changes of state variable final value.Therefore, water resource supply and demand process has the sudden change feature.
The water security that guarantees water resource system is an important goal of water resource supply and demand regulating effect.But it is more that water security relates to factor, causes the water security evaluation not only will take into full account the regional water resources situation, also wants many-sided factors such as the associated economy of comprehensive evaluation, society, environment, is unusual complicated problems.From present achievement in research, evaluation method adopts analytical hierarchy process, projection pursuit model, fuzzy optimum selecting model, fuzzy synthetic evaluation model etc. more, but ubiquitous problem is: (1) choosing index system subjectivity is strong.Water security relates to many-sided factor, and existing dynamic index has the nature static index again, and existing qualitative index has quantitative target etc. again, causes current index to be chosen and has certain subjectivity and limitation; (2) evaluation method is immature.Usually, weight and subordinate function are mainly determined by the form of expert's marking the membership function value of weight or target variable to make evaluation result have certain subjectivity, confidence level is relatively poor.
Summary of the invention
In order to overcome the problem that prior art exists, the purpose of this invention is to provide a kind of regional water safety evaluation method based on water resource supply and demand process sudden change feature, this method is utilized entity-associated concepts modelling water security assessment indicator system, and at the catastrophe characteristics of water resource supply and demand system, foundation is based on the water security evaluation model of catastrophe theory, different water resources management modes are implemented back water security situation carry out comprehensive assessment, evaluation result is accurate comprehensively, and is with a high credibility.
The objective of the invention is to be achieved through the following technical solutions:
A kind of regional water safety evaluation method based on water resource supply and demand process sudden change feature, it is characterized in that: this method is utilized entity-associated concepts modelling water security assessment indicator system, and at the catastrophe characteristics of water resource supply and demand system, foundation is based on the water security evaluation model of catastrophe theory, different water resources management modes are implemented back water security situation carry out comprehensive assessment, specifically may further comprise the steps:
1) utilization entity-associated concepts is divided into entity subsystem and related subsystem with water security, and the entity subsystem comprises external environment condition safety, water resource safety; Related subsystem comprises water resource-economic security, water resource-Environmental security, water resource-social safety;
2) principle of estimating according to water security is set up the System of Comprehensive Evaluation that relates to socio-economic development, external environment condition variation, water resources development and utilization aspect;
3) set desired value change procedure under the different water resources management patterns, and substitution water security index system;
4) index system is carried out the raw data standardization; According to the requirement of catastrophe theory multifactorial evaluation, the type that the is the bigger the better dimensionless that the raw data of control variable is transformed in 0～1 scope can compare numerical value, promptly control variable is carried out the raw data normalization.Can adopt the method for fuzzy mathematics that control variable is carried out the raw data normalization.
5) according to initial fuzzy membership function value, utilize the normalizing formula to carry out the comprehensive quantification recursive operation, obtain total sudden change degree of membership value of evaluation system; When utilizing the normalizing formula that each control variable of same system is carried out the fuzzy synthesis analysis and passed judgment on, defer to " complementation " and " incomplementarity " principle; Adopt dovetail sudden change, cusp sudden change, MODEL OF BUTTERFLY CATASTROPHE to estimate;
6) repeating step 5), obtain the total sudden change membership function value and the Changing Pattern thereof of different evaluation system respectively, carry out analysis-by-synthesis and judge between different system, realize regional water safety assessment based on water resource supply and demand process sudden change feature.
Among the present invention, external environment condition safety comprises economic development, population growth and environmental change; Water resource safety comprises confession, usefulness, consumption, row's process.
Non-linear, open, the dynamic dispatching characteristics of tie water security system of the present invention, according to system entity-associated concepts, follow comprehensively and representative combine, qualitative analysis and quantitative test principle construction such as combined in conjunction with, science and contained external environment condition safety, water resource safety, water resource-social safety, water resource-economic security, water resource-Environmental security in the index system of one with operability, based on the water security evaluation model of catastrophe theory, the water resources management effect is assessed simultaneously.Evaluation result of the present invention is accurate comprehensively, and is with a high credibility.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 is a Yulin City water security condition diagram under the year two thousand twenty B1 sight that obtains by the present invention.
Embodiment
A kind of regional water safety evaluation method based on water resource supply and demand process sudden change feature of the present invention, concrete steps are as follows:
1) utilization entity-associated concepts, water security is divided into entity subsystem and related subsystem, the entity subsystem mainly comprises external environment condition safety, water resource system safety, and related subsystem mainly comprises water resource-economic security, water resource-Environmental security, water resource-social safety.
2) cardinal rule of tie water safety evaluation is set up the System of Comprehensive Evaluation that relates to socio-economic development, external environment condition variation, water resources development and utilization aspect; See Table 1.
1 water security is estimated the primary election index system
3) set desired value change procedure under the different water resources management patterns, and substitution water security index system;
Be example specifically with the Northwest arid district Yulin City, according to factors vary processes such as future economy development, population growth, climate changes, adopt system simulation model, Routine Management, water supply are managed, need under three kinds of patterns of water management under simulation Yulin City the year two thousand twenty B1 sight, each index change procedure specifically sees Table 2..
Development indicators under each management mode of Yulin City the year two thousand twenty under the 2 B1 sights
4) in conjunction with These parameters, adopt the membership function method, each index raw value can be converted to the sudden change fuzzy membership function in [0,1] scope; Wherein, qualitative index can be marked definite by the multidigit expert by various scoring methods such as interval scorings.No matter it still is moderate type index for big more excellent more type index, more little excellent more type index to quantitative target, can be translated into big more excellent more type desired value in 0～1 the span according to certain method; This paper adopts the method for fuzzy mathematics to inquire into, and is specific as follows:
To big more excellent more type index,
To more little excellent more type index,
To moderate type index,
In the formula
,
Upper and lower boundary for function, because in actual assessment, the value of quantitative target is an approximate estimation, so can get a proper range to the bound of each quantitative target, promptly increases and decreases 10% bound as this quantitative target of itself on each quantitative target maximum, minimum value basis.
5) according to initial fuzzy membership function value, utilize the normalizing formula to carry out the comprehensive quantification recursive operation, obtain total sudden change degree of membership value of evaluation system; When utilizing the normalizing formula that each control variable of same system is carried out the fuzzy synthesis analysis and passed judgment on, defer to " complementation " and " incomplementarity " principle; Adopt dovetail sudden change, cusp sudden change, MODEL OF BUTTERFLY CATASTROPHE to estimate.Be calculated as example with the year two thousand twenty Routine Management water resource safety, concrete computation process is as follows: select lack of water rate C4, earth surface water source water supply ratio C5, three indexs of other water source place of water utilization of resources ratio C6, carry out normalization, and three indexs constitute the dovetail sudden change, according to the normalization formula, then have
,
,
Owing to can cover the shortage mutually between each control variable, integrate, jointly to last layer evaluation index generation effect, therefore by principle of complementarity, getting average has
6) repeating step 5), can try to achieve external environment condition safety
, water resource-social safety
, water resource-economic security
, water resource-Environmental security
In like manner can try to achieve the water security change procedure that Yulin City the year two thousand twenty is implemented Routine Management, supplied water and manage and need water management.
Fig. 1 is a Yulin City water security condition diagram under the year two thousand twenty B1 sight that obtains by the present invention.By contrast as can be seen, under the Routine Management pattern, the security of Yulin City water resource system is relatively poor.Along with the continuous increase of water consumption, water system pressure constantly increases, and finally make the water resources development and utilization rate surpass the basin load-bearing capacity, and then environmental system is wrecked, and finally unsustainable; In the water supply management mode, water resource utilization efficiency is still low, and to the year two thousand twenty, along with the enforcement of drawing yellow engineering, the water resources development and utilization rate improves constantly, and meanwhile, water requirement also obviously increases, and the water resource imbalance between supply and demand aggravates thereupon; Be subjected to the Yellow River simultaneously and come the influence of water condition, huge in addition investment makes the new construction water supply cost constantly increase, and following water system pressure obviously increases, in addition because the environmental consciousness shortcoming, water pollution is serious, and finally develops because of environment and economic unsustainable being difficult to; Need the water management pattern to have vital role for the support area water security.Since need in the water management pattern, the raising gradually of people's consciousness of saving water, the improvement of production technology, the regulation and control of price mechanism are all effectively alleviated the water requirement of quick growth, and overall system is tending towards safety.Simultaneously, because the economic loss that lack of water reduces gradually reduces, the economic system self-growth also is tending towards safety; In addition, the minimizing of engineering construction, ecologic environment also be improved significantly, water resource-environmental system also is tending towards safety.
All in all, the present invention uses water resource supply and demand system sudden change feature, according to entity-associated concepts, water security is divided into entity subsystem and related subsystem, and the cardinal rule of tie water safety evaluation, foundation relates to the index system of socio-economic development, external environment condition variation, water resources development and utilization aspect, based on the water security evaluation model of catastrophe theory, the regional water safety case is assessed.The present invention can effectively assess water security situation under the different regulation and control models, will provide foundation for water resources management.With the Yulin City is that example shows, evaluation result of the present invention is accurate comprehensively, and is with a high credibility.
Claims (3)
1. regional water safety evaluation method based on water resource supply and demand process sudden change feature, it is characterized in that: this method is utilized entity-associated concepts modelling water security assessment indicator system, and at the catastrophe characteristics of water resource supply and demand system, foundation is based on the water security evaluation model of catastrophe theory, different water resources management modes are implemented back water security situation carry out comprehensive assessment, specifically may further comprise the steps:
1) utilization entity-associated concepts is divided into entity subsystem and related subsystem with water security, and the entity subsystem comprises external environment condition safety, water resource safety; Related subsystem comprises water resource-economic security, water resource-Environmental security, water resource-social safety;
2) principle of estimating according to water security is set up the System of Comprehensive Evaluation that relates to socio-economic development, external environment condition variation, water resources development and utilization aspect;
3) set desired value change procedure under the different water resources management patterns, and substitution water security index system;
4) index system is carried out the raw data standardization; According to the requirement of catastrophe theory multifactorial evaluation, the type that the is the bigger the better dimensionless that the raw data of control variable is transformed in 0～1 scope can compare numerical value, promptly control variable is carried out the raw data normalization;
5) according to initial fuzzy membership function value, utilize the normalizing formula to carry out the comprehensive quantification recursive operation, obtain total sudden change degree of membership value of evaluation system; When utilizing the normalizing formula that each control variable of same system is carried out the fuzzy synthesis analysis and passed judgment on, defer to " complementation " and " incomplementarity " principle; Adopt dovetail sudden change, cusp sudden change, MODEL OF BUTTERFLY CATASTROPHE to estimate;
6) repeating step 5), obtain the total sudden change membership function value and the Changing Pattern thereof of different evaluation system respectively, carry out analysis-by-synthesis and judge between different system, realize regional water safety assessment based on water resource supply and demand process sudden change feature.
2. the regional water safety evaluation method based on water resource supply and demand process sudden change feature according to claim 1, it is characterized in that: external environment condition safety comprises economic development, population growth and environmental change; Water resource safety comprises confession, usefulness, consumption, row's process.
3. the regional water safety evaluation method based on water resource supply and demand process sudden change feature according to claim 1 is characterized in that: in the step 4), adopt the method for fuzzy mathematics that control variable is carried out the raw data normalization.
Priority Applications (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN2011101224970A CN102156930A (en) | 2011-05-12 | 2011-05-12 | Regional water security evaluation method based on mutation characteristics of water resource supply and demand process |
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN2011101224970A CN102156930A (en) | 2011-05-12 | 2011-05-12 | Regional water security evaluation method based on mutation characteristics of water resource supply and demand process |
Publications (1)
| Publication Number | Publication Date |
|---|---|
| CN102156930A true CN102156930A (en) | 2011-08-17 |
Family
ID=44438416
Family Applications (1)
| Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN2011101224970A Pending CN102156930A (en) | 2011-05-12 | 2011-05-12 | Regional water security evaluation method based on mutation characteristics of water resource supply and demand process |
Country Status (1)
| Country | Link |
|---|---|
| CN (1) | CN102156930A (en) |
Cited By (7)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN102930384A (en) * | 2012-10-22 | 2013-02-13 | 河海大学 | Human-water harmony degree-based municipal water resource safety evaluation system and method |
| CN108090707A (en) * | 2018-02-06 | 2018-05-29 | 吉林大学 | A kind of mountain flood risk assessment method and early warning system based on catastrophe theory |
| CN109117998A (en) * | 2018-08-03 | 2019-01-01 | 中山大学 | A kind of multiple agent configuration method |
| CN111027185A (en) * | 2019-11-21 | 2020-04-17 | 云南大学 | Dovetail mutation model bifurcation point set visualization method and system |
| CN111262239A (en) * | 2020-02-19 | 2020-06-09 | 中国能源建设集团江苏省电力设计院有限公司 | Energy storage power station site selection scheme evaluation method, device and system |
| CN112668923A (en) * | 2021-01-05 | 2021-04-16 | 黄河勘测规划设计研究院有限公司 | State analysis method and device for basin giant system |
| CN113269383A (en) * | 2021-01-05 | 2021-08-17 | 黄河勘测规划设计研究院有限公司 | Drainage basin high-quality development comprehensive evaluation method and device based on system science |
-
2011
- 2011-05-12 CN CN2011101224970A patent/CN102156930A/en active Pending
Cited By (13)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN102930384A (en) * | 2012-10-22 | 2013-02-13 | 河海大学 | Human-water harmony degree-based municipal water resource safety evaluation system and method |
| CN108090707A (en) * | 2018-02-06 | 2018-05-29 | 吉林大学 | A kind of mountain flood risk assessment method and early warning system based on catastrophe theory |
| CN108090707B (en) * | 2018-02-06 | 2021-04-09 | 吉林大学 | Mountain torrent disaster risk evaluation method and early warning system based on mutation theory |
| CN109117998A (en) * | 2018-08-03 | 2019-01-01 | 中山大学 | A kind of multiple agent configuration method |
| CN109117998B (en) * | 2018-08-03 | 2021-06-25 | 中山大学 | Multi-agent configuration method |
| CN111027185A (en) * | 2019-11-21 | 2020-04-17 | 云南大学 | Dovetail mutation model bifurcation point set visualization method and system |
| CN111027185B (en) * | 2019-11-21 | 2023-03-21 | 云南大学 | Dovetail mutation model bifurcation point set visualization method and system |
| CN111262239B (en) * | 2020-02-19 | 2022-06-10 | 中国能源建设集团江苏省电力设计院有限公司 | Energy storage power station site selection scheme evaluation method, device and system |
| CN111262239A (en) * | 2020-02-19 | 2020-06-09 | 中国能源建设集团江苏省电力设计院有限公司 | Energy storage power station site selection scheme evaluation method, device and system |
| CN112668923A (en) * | 2021-01-05 | 2021-04-16 | 黄河勘测规划设计研究院有限公司 | State analysis method and device for basin giant system |
| CN112668923B (en) * | 2021-01-05 | 2022-05-20 | 黄河勘测规划设计研究院有限公司 | State analysis method and device for drainage basin giant system |
| CN113269383A (en) * | 2021-01-05 | 2021-08-17 | 黄河勘测规划设计研究院有限公司 | Drainage basin high-quality development comprehensive evaluation method and device based on system science |
| CN113269383B (en) * | 2021-01-05 | 2023-11-14 | 黄河勘测规划设计研究院有限公司 | Comprehensive evaluation method and device for high-quality drainage basin development based on system science |
Similar Documents
| Publication | Publication Date | Title |
|---|---|---|
| Yu et al. | An integrated model of water resources optimization allocation based on projection pursuit model–Grey wolf optimization method in a transboundary river basin | |
| Wang et al. | Evaluation of the comprehensive carrying capacity of interprovincial water resources in China and the spatial effect | |
| Yang et al. | Comprehensive evaluation and scenario simulation for the water resources carrying capacity in Xi'an city, China | |
| CN102156930A (en) | Regional water security evaluation method based on mutation characteristics of water resource supply and demand process | |
| Mochida et al. | Prediction of wind environment and thermal comfort at pedestrian level in urban area | |
| Xu et al. | Geographical analysis of CO2 emissions in China's manufacturing industry: A geographically weighted regression model | |
| Lu et al. | Potential assessment of optimizing energy structure in the city of carbon intensity target | |
| Yang et al. | Assessment of urban water security based on catastrophe theory | |
| CN101944161B (en) | Calculation method of ecological water demand of wetland based on evaluation of disturbance degree of ecological system | |
| Xu et al. | Assessment of water resources sustainability in mainland China in terms of water intensity and efficiency | |
| CN105893774A (en) | Computer modeling method of green development ecological safety evaluation index in biodiversity protection priority area | |
| CN110135730A (en) | A method of urban agglomeration resosurces environment loading capacity is estimated based on entropy assessment | |
| CN108122077A (en) | A kind of water environment safety evaluation method and device | |
| Chen et al. | Financial depth or breadth: What really matters for fighting air pollution in China? | |
| Laganis et al. | Sensitivity analysis of the emergy flows at the solar salt production process in Slovenia | |
| Kong et al. | Controlling methods of driving factors in the economic development of coastal areas | |
| Wang et al. | A simulation impact evaluation of social-economic development on water resource use | |
| Komelina et al. | Economic-mathematical modeling of the energy efficiency indicators of existing housing stock | |
| Liu | Demand forecast of regional tourism based on variable weight combination model | |
| Zhang et al. | Theoretical method and application of assessment on water resources carrying capacity: a case study of Binzhou, Shandong | |
| Zheng et al. | Optimal water strategy for the United States | |
| CN103279635A (en) | Method for modeling and forecasting flooding gas speed in random packing tower | |
| Lu et al. | Optimal water strategy for the United States | |
| Wang et al. | Study of reclaimed water system in downtown Los Angeles based on system dynamics theory | |
| Aslani et al. | The Effect of Improvement of Rehabilitation on the Improvement of the Network Utility Index with the Constrain of Improvement in the NEXUS Index based on System Dynamic Analysis (Case Study: Qazvin Irrigation Network) |
Legal Events
| Date | Code | Title | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| C06 | Publication | ||
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| C10 | Entry into substantive examination | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| C12 | Rejection of a patent application after its publication | ||
| RJ01 | Rejection of invention patent application after publication |
Application publication date: 20110817 |