CN102062769A - Method for recognizing ecological risks and calculating value at risk for land oil exploitation - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for recognizing ecological risks and calculating value at risk for land oil exploitation, and belongs to the field of ecological risk prevention. The method comprises the steps of: determining featured pollutants of land oil exploitation; screening sensitive receivers of oil exploitation pollutants in the ecosystem and determining characteristic indexes of the sensitive receivers; obtaining sample data for concentration values of the featured pollutants in an oil exploitation region and the characteristic index values of the sensitive receivers; calculating biological half lethal concentration values of the oil exploitation pollutants according to the congruent relationship between the concentration of the pollutants and the mortality of vegetable sensitive receivers; and recognizing the ecological risk conditions of the region on the basis of the double integral method of joint probability distribution functions by taking dosage values of the featured pollutants and the sensitivity characteristic indexes of the receivers in the oil exploitation into consideration. The method for recognizing the ecological risks and calculating value at risk for the land oil exploitation has great scientific significance and application value for improving the capability and level of coordinated growth between national oil exploitation and ecological environment protection and supporting the environment protection.

Description

The computing method of a kind of land oil exploitation ecological risk identification and value-at-risk

Technical field

The present invention relates to environmental science and ecological risk assessment field, the method for a kind of oil exploitation pollutant ecological risk assessment of saying so more specifically.

Background technology

Ecological risk (Ecological Risk) is meant that the normal function of population, the ecosystem or a whole view is coerced by the external world, thus at present with the possibility that reduces in the future some key element of this internal system or the health of itself, yield-power, genetic structure, economic worth and aesthetic values.U.S. EPA defines ecological risk assessment, is " to the result's evaluation process that take place or occurent negative ecology influence probability that contacts owing to one or more stress (physics, chemistry and biotic stress etc.) ".According to this definition, possibility that risk assessment result's computing method take place by risk or probability with risk in case generation the product of generation consequence.

Through extensively retrieving patent mechanisms such as China, the U.S., all do not find patent at present at the ecological risk evaluating method of oil exploitation process.The relevant patent that retrieves comprises a kind of method of the reworked methods of fault tree of environmental risk assessment, a kind of industrial park surroundings risks recognition methods, the ecological risk evaluating method of city system, a kind of definite regional ecological risk early warning, ecological risk recognition methods, environment risk source identification and comprehensive analysis method of water body agricultural chemicals of being used for.Publication number is that method that the Chinese patent (a kind of modified fault tree analysis process of environmental risk assessment) of CN101477643A proposes to be provided with degree of membership is introduced event tree analysis and put, and adopt the weighting evaluation method to have following one deck incident degree of membership to can be regarded as one deck time degree of membership, " either-or " defective when overcoming original crash analysis method and carrying out environmental risk assessment makes that the environmental risk assessment conclusion is more scientific and reasonable.Publication number is that the Chinese patent (a kind of method of industrial park surroundings risks identification) of CN101136090A discloses a kind of industrial park surroundings risks recognition methods that utilizes environmental risk distinguishing indexes system and environmental risk aggregative index.This invention is determined the risk case of the preferential management in industrial park by the emphasis risk source in the identification garden, manufacturing district, but reasonable management emphasis environment risk source, but be not generalized to the oil exploitation district as yet.Application publication number is that the Chinese patent (environment risk source identification and comprehensive analysis method) of CN101777145A discloses by information approach and solves environment risk source identification and comprehensive analysis method, for making up regional environment Emergency System provide the foundation database and software architecture.Application publication number is the Chinese patent (ecological risk evaluating method of city system) of CN101777171A, III level multimedium fugacity/equivalent concentration model is disclosed, and selected model parameter, obtained the predicted value of urban ecology risk according to the predicted value of model parameter.In addition, the United States Patent (USP) (Apparatus and method for determing a level of confidence in a risk assessment and/or determing a level of acceptability of an event occuring) that also retrieves patent No. position 7254522 has proposed a cover at the confidence level in the risk assessment process and incident acceptable degree and has determined method.The patent that more than retrieves and environmental risk assessment, risk assessment are relevant, do not relate to the ecological risk evaluating method in oil exploitation district as yet.

The ecological risk of the oil exploitation pollutant that the present invention proposes is on the basis of the pollution spectrum discrimination of oil exploitation pollutant, collection and analysis by relevant informations such as pollutant exposed region ecosystem feature and ecological effects, filter out the feature pollutant and the responsive acceptor of ecological risk of oil exploitation pollutant, select the characteristic index that the responsive acceptor of ecological risk changes, setting up the feature pollutant levels concerns with the contact exposure that ecological risk sensitive receptor 1 body surface is levied between the index, degree and scope relationship between expression that mode and contact expose, determine the route of exposure that the risk acceptor is potential, intensity and issuable adverse effect thereof, and the ecological potential extent of damage of oil exploitation Polluted area is carried out quantification express.The ecological risk assessment of oil exploitation pollutant supports the national environmental protection career development and has great scientific meaning and using value for the ability and the level that improve national oil exploitation and ecological environmental protection coordinated development.

Summary of the invention

The technical problem to be solved in the present invention is to set up identification of land oil exploitation ecological risk and value-at-risk Calculation Method, problem in the actual generation of reference local area ecological risk, the integrated use enquiry data is analyzed, consider the characteristic index of oil exploitation feature pollutant, receptor sensitivity, based on joint probability distribution function double integral method identified region ecological risk situation, take precautions against to provide support for the environmental risk of oil exploitation.

The present invention separates the technical scheme that its technical matters adopts:

Principle of the present invention: the pollutant that produces in the oil exploitation process is mainly determined by three aspects the harm of the ecosystem: expose, i.e. the CONCENTRATION DISTRIBUTION of land water and soil environment PetroChina Company Limited. recovery features pollutant; Sensitivity, promptly ecological acceptor characteristic index is to the response of different oil exploitation feature pollutant levels; Effect, promptly ecological acceptor characterizes the observable reaction to oil exploitation feature pollutant.The identification of land oil exploitation ecological risk is to calculate the probability of the exposure concentrations of gained above biological MLC (median lethal concertration) according to the double integral of the binary probability density function of oil exploitation feature pollutant and two characteristic indexs of responsive acceptor.

Technical scheme of the present invention is as follows:

Ecological risk recognition methods of land oil exploitation pollutant and calculating, it may further comprise the steps:

(1) gather oil exploitation district, land water, soil sample is analyzed, and determines the kind of the oil exploitation pollutant that exists in the sample;

(2) BTEX of working sample, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon content according to the actual pollutant test data relevant toxicity data such as ECOTOX, TOXNET of U.S. EPA, are used SCRAM ^*Scoring model obtains arranging by degree of priority classification from high to low, establishes oil exploitation feature pollutant;

(3) SCRAM scoring model: chemicals scoring sequencing model (Chemical Scoring and Ranking Assessment Model), the persistence by chemical substance, bioaccumulation, toxicity and uncertain score value Fcomp=Fchem (the chemical substance)+Func (uncertainty) that comes the chemistry material.

Chemical substance score value calculating formula with acute toxicity is as follows:

Fchem＝(Bchem×Pchem)×1.5+AAchem+ATchem+Dchem (1)

Func＝(Bunc×Punc)×1.5+AAunc+ATunc+Dunc (2)

Chemical substance score value calculating formula with chronic toxicity is as follows:

Fchem＝(Bchem×Pchem)×1.5+CAchem+CTchem+CHchem+Dchem?(3)

Func＝(Bunc×Punc)×1.5+AAunc+ATunc+CHunc+Dunc (4)

The calculating formula of the total score value of chemical substance is as follows:

Fcomp＝Fchem+Func (5)

Above-mentioned various in, the F-score value, the B-bioaccumulation gets score value, and the P-persistence gets score value, the acute hydrobiont toxicity of AA-gets score value, the acute terrestrial organism toxicity of AT-gets score value, and the D-recall rate gets score value, and the chronic and inferior chronic hydrobiont toxicity of CA-gets score value, chronic and the inferior chronic terrestrial organism toxicity of CT-gets score value, chronic and the inferior chronic human toxicity of CH-gets score value, the 1.5-weight factor, and subscript chem, unc, comp represent chemical substance, uncertainty, summation respectively.

(4) select Trapp and Matthies model to expose the model of estimating, make up 19 kinds of parameters that comprise controlled variable, plant parameter and pollutant chemistry characterisitic parameter three major types, go out responsive acceptor based on model discrimination as plant ecological.

(5) behind the ecological sensitive species of establishment oil exploitation pollutant, analyze the MLC (median lethal concertration) value (LC50) that pollutant and ecological sensitive species characteristic index data determination go out species.

(6) obtaining binary probability density function about 2 variablees. this function is obeyed binary lognormal distribution. and calculating the probability P computing formula that exposure concentrations surpasses biological LC50 by double integral is:

$P=\underset{0}{\overset{C\max }{\∫}}\underset{0}{\overset{C}{\∫}}f\left(C\right)f\left(\mathrm{LC}50\right)\mathrm{dLC}50\mathrm{dC}$

Wherein, C=[c1, c2 ..., c _n] be the exposure concentrations of sampled point, wherein Cmax is c1, c2 ..., the maximal value among the cn, f (C) is the probability density curve of C, f (LC50) is the probability density curve of LC50.

(7) calculate above-mentioned double integral, obtain the ecological risk value of the oil exploitation pollutant of study area.

Beneficial effect of the present invention:

The invention provides a kind of land oil exploitation ecological risk identification and value-at-risk Calculation Method, used for reference the problem in the actual generation of local area ecological risk, the integrated use enquiry data is analyzed, consider the characteristic index of oil exploitation feature pollutant, receptor sensitivity, based on joint probability distribution function double integral method identified region ecological risk situation, take precautions against to provide support for the environmental risk of oil exploitation.

Description of drawings

Fig. 1 is a land oil exploitation pollutant ecological risk identification process synoptic diagram;

Embodiment

Below in conjunction with drawings and Examples, the specific embodiment of the present invention is described in further detail.

Embodiment 1

Identification of grand celebration oil exploitation ecological risk and calculating:

(1) gather oil exploitation district, land water, soil sample is analyzed, and determines the kind of the oil exploitation pollutant that exists in the sample;

(2) BTEX of working sample, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon content according to actual pollutant test data (table 1,2), according to the relevant toxicity data of ECOTOX, the TOXNET etc. of U.S. EPA, are used SCRAM ^*Scoring model obtains arranging by degree of priority classification from high to low, establishes oil exploitation feature pollutant;

(n=47) benzene series thing content distribution in the table 1 typical petroleum mining area soil

The benzene series thing	Minimum (ng/g)	Mxm. (ng/g)	Average (ng/g)	RSD(％)	Recall rate (%)
						Benzene	0.75	96.54	6.21	242.36	100
Toluene	2.36	174.67	14.45	190.91	100
						Ethylbenzene	3.23	112.82	12.18	160.77	100
Between, P-xylene	12.94	171.79	36.04	115.17	100
						O-xylene	4.00	63.14	11.64	120.21	100

Benzene series thing total amount

23.28

618.96

80.52

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon content distribution characteristics in the table 2 typical petroleum mining area soil (n=292)

(3) SCRAM scoring model: chemicals scoring sequencing model (Chemical Scoring and Ranking Assessment Model), the persistence by chemical substance, bioaccumulation, toxicity and uncertain score value Fcomp=Fchem (the chemical substance)+Func (uncertainty) that comes the chemistry material.

Chemical substance score value calculating formula with acute toxicity is as follows:

Fchem＝(Bchem×Pchem)×1.5+AAchem+ATchem+Dchem (1)

Func＝(Bunc×Punc)×1.5+AAunc+ATunc+Dunc (2)

Chemical substance score value calculating formula with chronic toxicity is as follows:

Fchem＝(Bchem×Pchem)×1.5+CAchem+CTchem+CHchem+Dchem?(3)

Func＝(Bunc×Punc)×1.5+AAunc+ATunc+CHunc+Dunc (4)

The calculating formula of the total score value of chemical substance is as follows:

Fcomp＝Fchem+Func (5)

Above-mentioned various in, the F-score value, the B-bioaccumulation gets score value, and the P-persistence gets score value, the acute hydrobiont toxicity of AA-gets score value, the acute terrestrial organism toxicity of AT-gets score value, and the D-recall rate gets score value, and the chronic and inferior chronic hydrobiont toxicity of CA-gets score value, chronic and the inferior chronic terrestrial organism toxicity of CT-gets score value, chronic and the inferior chronic human toxicity of CH-gets score value, the 1.5-weight factor, and subscript chem, unc, comp represent chemical substance, uncertainty, summation respectively.

Take all factors into consideration and ecosystem toxicity, movability and pollution components are constituted selection benzene and the luxuriant and rich with fragrance index contact scar thing of estimating as ecological exposure.

Table 3 pollutant scoring ranking results

Sequence number	CAS	English name	Chinese name	F chem	F unc	F comp
							1	1912-42-1	Benzo(g，h，i)perylene	Benzo (g, h, i) pyrene	54	25	79
2	56-55-3	Benzo(a)anthracene	Benzo (a) anthracene	45	31	76
							3	53-70-3	Dibenzo(a，h)anthracene	Dibenzo (a, h) anthracene	45	29	74
4	207-08-9	Benzo(k)fluoranthene	Benzo (k) fluoranthene	45	22	67
							5	205-99-2	Benzo(b)fluoranthene	Benzo (b) fluoranthene	53	13	66
6	218-01-9	Chrysene	Bend	53	13	66
							7	120-12-7	Anthracene	Anthracene	41	18	59
8	193-39-5	Indeno(1，2，3-c，d)pyrene	Indeno (1,2,3-c) pyrene	14	44	58
							9	206-44-0	Fluoranthene	Fluoranthene	36	17	53
10	208-96-8	Acenaphthene	Acenaphthene	13	40	53
							11	86-73-1	Fluorene	Fluorenes	28	21	49
12	1985/1/8	Phenanthrene	Luxuriant and rich with fragrance	34	13	47
							13	129-00-0	Pyrene	Pyrene	29	17	46
14	108-88-3	Toluene	Toluene	35	11	46
							15	83-32-9	Acenaphthene	Acenaphthene	26	16	42
16	71-43-2	Benzene	Benzene	24	17	41
							17	50-32-8	Benzo(a)pyrene	Benzo (a) pyrene	23	15	38
18	100-41-4	Ethylbenzene	Ethylbenzene	14	21	35
							19	91-20-3	Naphthalene	Naphthalene	18	12	30
20	108-38-3	1，3-xylene	M-xylene	12	18	30

(4) select Trapp and Matthies model to expose the model of estimating, make up 14 kinds of parameters that comprise controlled variable, plant parameter and pollutant chemistry characterisitic parameter three major types, go out responsive acceptor based on model discrimination as plant ecological.

By measuring plant chlorophyll, the proline content correlativity as responsive acceptor plant physioecology index and oil exploitation pollutant, the selection proline content is as the evaluation index of plant to environment-stress susceptibility.Daqing Area selects sheep's hay, purple iris to expose the index plant of estimating as oil exploitation pollutant ecological risk.

Table 4 model parameter and sensitivity test

(5) behind the ecological sensitive species of establishment oil exploitation pollutant, analyze the MLC (median lethal concertration) value (LC50) that pollutant and ecological sensitive species characteristic index data determination go out species.

(6) obtaining binary probability density function about 2 variablees. this function is obeyed binary lognormal distribution. and calculating the probability P computing formula that exposure concentrations surpasses biological LC50 by double integral is:

$P=\underset{0}{\overset{C\max }{\∫}}\underset{0}{\overset{C}{\∫}}f\left(C\right)f\left(\mathrm{LC}50\right)\mathrm{dLC}50\mathrm{dC}$

Wherein, C=[c1, c2 ..., cn] and be the exposure concentrations of sampled point, wherein Cmax is c1, c2 ..., the maximal value among the cn, f (C) is the probability density curve of C, f (LC50) is the probability density curve of LC50.

(7) calculate above-mentioned double integral, obtain the ecological risk value of the oil exploitation pollutant of study area.

Claims (1)

1. a land oil exploitation ecological risk is discerned and the Risk Calculation method, and it may further comprise the steps:

(1) gather oil exploitation district, land water, soil sample is analyzed, and determines the kind of the oil exploitation pollutant that exists in the sample;

(2) BTEX of working sample, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon content according to the relevant toxicity data of ECOTOX, the TOXNET etc. of U.S. EPA, are used SCRAM according to actual pollutant test data ^*Scoring model obtains arranging by degree of priority classification from high to low, establishes oil exploitation feature pollutant;

(3) SCRAM scoring model: chemicals scoring sequencing model (Chemical Scoring and Ranking Assessment Model), the persistence by chemical substance, bioaccumulation, toxicity and uncertain score value Fcomp=Fchem (the chemical substance)+Func (uncertainty) that comes the chemistry material.

Chemical substance score value calculating formula with acute toxicity is as follows:

Fchem＝(Bchem×Pchem)×1.5+AAchem+ATchem+Dchem (1)

Func＝(Bunc×Punc)×1.5+AAunc+ATunc+Dunc (2)

Chemical substance score value calculating formula with chronic toxicity is as follows:

Fchem＝(Bchem×Pchem)×1.5+CAchem+CTchem+CHchem+Dchem?(3)

Func＝(Bunc×Punc)×1.5+AAunc+ATunc+CHunc+Dunc (4)

The calculating formula of the total score value of chemical substance is as follows:

Fcomp＝Fchem+Func (5)

Above-mentioned various in, the F-score value, the B-bioaccumulation gets score value, and the P-persistence gets score value, the acute hydrobiont toxicity of AA-gets score value, the acute terrestrial organism toxicity of AT-gets score value, and the D-recall rate gets score value, and the chronic and inferior chronic hydrobiont toxicity of CA-gets score value, chronic and the inferior chronic terrestrial organism toxicity of CT-gets score value, chronic and the inferior chronic human toxicity of CH-gets score value, the 1.5-weight factor, and subscript chem, unc, comp represent chemical substance, uncertainty, summation respectively.

(4) select Trapp and Matthies model to expose the model of estimating, make up 14 kinds of parameters that comprise controlled variable, plant parameter and pollutant chemistry characterisitic parameter three major types, go out responsive acceptor based on model discrimination as plant ecological.

(5) behind the ecological sensitive species of establishment oil exploitation pollutant, analyze the MLC (median lethal concertration) value (LC50) that pollutant and ecological sensitive species characteristic index data determination go out species.

(6) obtaining binary probability density function about 2 variablees. this function is obeyed binary lognormal distribution. and calculating the probability P computing formula that exposure concentrations surpasses biological LC50 by double integral is:

$P=\underset{0}{\overset{C\max }{\∫}}\underset{0}{\overset{C}{\∫}}f\left(C\right)f\left(\mathrm{LC}50\right)\mathrm{dLC}50\mathrm{dC}$

Wherein, C=[c1, c2 ..., c _n] be the exposure concentrations of sampled point, wherein Cmax is c1, c2 ..., the maximal value among the cn, f (C) is the probability density curve of C, f (LC50) is the probability density curve of LC50.

(7) calculate above-mentioned double integral, obtain the ecological risk value of the oil exploitation pollutant of study area.

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